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      "body": "<html>\n<p><em>This article was originally posted on </em><a href=\"https://checksig.org/how-do-the-futures-market-work-part-2-3fe9a47a8a7\"><em>my old blog</em></a><em> on Dec 24, 2016.</em></p>\n<p><em>This is the second part of a 2 parts post, you can read the </em><a href=\"https://steemit.com/trading/@zavan/how-do-the-futures-market-works-part-1\"><em>first one here</em></a><em>, where we introduce the futures market.</em></p>\n<h3>Cryptocurrency futures</h3>\n<p>Enough with all that corn, we’re not farmers (okay, some of you may be), we’re traders, so let’s talk about how what we learned can be applied to cryptocurrencies and what differences there are. From here on out I’m assuming you have at least a very basic understanding of how Bitcoin and financial markets work (you really shouldn’t be thinking about trading futures yet, if you don’t).</p>\n<p>For the sake of the example I’ll be talking about <strong>BTC/USD</strong> (Bitcoin/United States Dollar) contracts at our fictitious futures exchange, very originally named, <strong>BTCFutures</strong>.<em>This works along the same lines for any other currency pair or exchange</em>. <em>But please bear in mind that none of the values or rules here cited are standard, different exchanges may have different values and rules.</em> <em><strong>Do your research and read the exchange’s documentation.</strong></em></p>\n<p>Bitcoin futures are a type of <strong>non-deliverable forward</strong>, meaning there’s no physical underlying asset to be delivered like in the corn example, the asset is the BTC/USD exchange rate and the contract is settled in cash (Bitcoin in this case). This has an interesting implication: you can trade without ever needing to be on <strong>fiat</strong>, you start on Bitcoin, stay on Bitcoin and end on Bitcoin, so for any tax purpose you never realized any profit (in fiat). Don’t tell anybody I told you that.</p>\n<p>Let’s walk through the process of trading at BTCFutures.</p>\n<h4>The contracts</h4>\n<p>It’s December 16, 2016, you access BTCFutures and you see they’re offering 3 contract <strong>maturities</strong> (the lifetime of the contract, how long until it <strong>expires</strong>and <strong>settles</strong>), each with a <strong>settlement date</strong> (or “delivery date”, as we’ve been calling it):</p>\n<ul>\n  <li><strong>Weekly</strong>: a new one opens <strong>every Friday</strong>, while the previous one settles;</li>\n  <li><strong>Biweeky</strong>: a new one opens <strong>every 2 Fridays</strong>, while the previous one settles;</li>\n  <li><strong>Quarterly</strong>: a new one opens <strong>approximately every 3 months, or 13 weeks</strong>, on the last Friday of the 3rd month, while the previous one settles.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>All of them are settled at 8 AM UTC (Coordinated Universal Time, the zero timezone).</p>\n<p>You’re interested in the Weekly contract, better suited for <strong>day trading</strong>, the current Weekly contract is named “BTCW1223”. BTCFutures follows a simple naming schema: “BTC” means it’s based on the BTC/USD exchange rate, “W” means Weekly (while “B” would stand for Biweekly and “Q” for Quarterly), “12” is the settlement month, “23” is the settlement day (the next Friday).Each contract is worth <strong>100 USD</strong>, this is fixed, meaning it doesn’t fluctuate. This may be different on other exchanges.</p>\n<h4>Leverage and&nbsp;margin</h4>\n<p>You’re bullish and want to <em>long 10 contracts</em>, here’s how you do it: You look at the <strong>order book</strong> and you see that the <strong>last traded price</strong>, the price at which the last contract was formed (a long and a short were matched), is 1000 USD.</p>\n<p>Each contract is worth 100 USD, but as I said, you start on BTC, stay on BTC and end on BTC, in other words: contracts are <strong>quoted</strong> in USD but <strong>settled</strong> in BTC. Divide 100 (each contract’s value) by 1000 (the last traded price) and you get 0.1 (each contract’s value in BTC), multiply that by 10 (the amount of contracts you want) and you get 1 BTC as a result.</p>\n<p>Does that mean you need 1 BTC? No. Remember: you’re not buying or selling anything, all you’re doing is “signing a contract”, but still, the exchange requires some collateral, which they call “<strong>margin</strong>”.</p>\n<p>So, how much should this margin be? Well, it depends on how much <strong>leveraged</strong> you want to be! The word “leverage” comes from “lever”, in the sense that with just a little amount of “force” (money, in our case), you can “move” a lot more, like when using a lever. It is basically trading with money you don’t necessarily have. For example, if you’re at 20x leverage it means you only have 1/20, or 5%, of the money you’re investing.This means that a small movement in price causes a much larger movement on your profits, or your <strong>losses</strong>. It is a very risky operation and you may lose everything you have if you’re not cautious (we’ll see what can be done to protect yourself from that soon). With great powers comes great responsibilities, as was very well put by the late Uncle Ben.</p>\n<p>Now, answering the question: Suppose BTCFutures offers 10x and 20x leverage (this can go up to 100x on some exchanges), since it’s your first time you don’t want to risk too much, so you go with 10x, that means you need 0.1 BTC (1 divided by 10, or 10% of the value) on your margin account to be used as the <strong>initial margin</strong> for you position. It would be just 0.05 BTC, or 5%, for 20x leverage.</p>\n<p>This is called <strong>isolated</strong>, <strong>compartmentalized</strong> or <strong>fixed</strong> margin, meaning you’re setting some margin aside for a specific position. Some exchanges also offer what’s called a <strong>cross</strong> or <strong>spread</strong> margin, in this modality your margin is shared <em>across</em> your positions. But let’s keep it simple and use isolated margin.</p>\n<h4>Going long</h4>\n<p>You go to your Bitcoin wallet, scan your margin account QR Code at the exchange and transfer 0.105 BTC, a little more than we calculated, just to be safe in case the price goes up before your transaction is confirmed and you can place your order, and to cover the exchange fees.Great, now you have some money to play with. You look again at the order book, it hasn’t moved, the last traded price is still 1000 USD. You now have basically 2 choices to place an order:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>A <strong>market order</strong>: places the order at the <strong>market price</strong> (the best price of the opposing position), the bigger bid (long) price if you’re shorting or the smaller ask (short) price if you’re longing, the order is executed immediately. In this case you’re acting a <strong>market taker</strong>, since you’re <em>taking</em>the best offer;</li>\n  <li>A <strong>limit order</strong>: places the order at the chosen price. It will only be executed if it ever becomes the best bid or ask and someone trying to enter the opposite position takes your order. In this case you’re acting as a <strong>market maker</strong>, since you’re helping <em>make</em> the market.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Since BTCFutures, like some real exchanges, charge a small fee over market orders, you go with the limit order. You look again at the order book and check the bids table (the green one, that contains the long orders) and see that the best (higher) price is currently 999.99 USD, so you go on and place a limit order for longing 10 contracts at 999.98 USD and 10x leverage. Once that top order is executed yours is next (unless someone places a better one before yours is <strong>taken</strong>).</p>\n<p>The market where you’re trading is very <strong>liquid</strong> (the orders are quickly taken), so a few seconds pass, the order above you is taken and yours is now the top one, another second pass and a market taker wanting to short 10 contracts at 999.98 USD takes your order. You’re officially long 10 contracts!A few minutes passed and the price is now up to 1010 USD (▲1%), since you’re long and the price is up, you’re profiting. How much?</p>\n<p>Your position is now worth 1.01 BTC (1, your position’s initial value, plus the 1%), 1.01 minus 1 is +0.01 BTC, that’s your current <strong>P/L</strong> (Profit/Loss), it’s unrealized, since your position is still open. Add this to your 0.1 BTC initial margin and you get 0.11 BTC, a 10% increase, that’s your <strong>ROE</strong> (Return On Equity), which is 10x bigger than the price movement, that’s the power of leverage! Where is that profit coming from? Well… your counterparty is short, so he’s losing 10%… It’s just like the corn example.</p>\n<p>You go grab yourself a coffee while you wait for more profits.</p>\n<h4>Margin call and liquidation</h4>\n<p>Liquidation… I think you can guess that this is not going to be fun.Five minutes later you’re back with your coffee and you open Facebook to check some kitten GIFs, but instead all you see are news about how a big Bitcoin exchange has been hacked just now. Luckily it wasn’t BTCFutures, but remembering the past hacks you start thinking “Damn, that’s really bad news…”.</p>\n<p>You’re awaken from your memories of trading at the spot market by a notification from BTCFutures saying your position has been <strong>liquidated</strong>(automatically closed) at a loss on a <strong>margin call</strong>. You look at your account and the margin you had set aside for that position is gone. You’re thinking “WHAT THE HELL?!”.</p>\n<p>So exactly why and how did that happen? Let’s go back a little: your initial margin is collateral for your losses, it’s is used to pay your counterparty, who’s profiting from your loss. What would happen if your position’s losses became greater than you position’s margin? All your position’s margin would’ve been consumed, you’d be bankrupt and the exchange would not be able to pay your counterparty. Not cool, since people come to exchanges, among other reasons, to reduce counterparty risk.</p>\n<p>That’s why most, if not all, crypto futures exchanges require your position’s <strong>equity</strong> (initial margin + P/L) to be a certain percentage of your position’s initial margin at all times (different exchanges calculate this differently), that value is called <strong>maintenance margin</strong>.</p>\n<p>If your position’s equity goes bellow (if you’re long), or above (if you’re short) that margin, the exchange will issue a <strong>margin call</strong> and automatically start <strong>liquidating</strong> (issuing orders to close) your position to <strong>deleverage</strong> you back to your maintenance margin (some exchanges will completely close your position). That way you can’t become “negative” and your counterparty doesn’t need to bother too much about your bad trading skills.In the case of using cross margin, since the margin is shared between various positions, it’s your <strong>account equity</strong> (deposits + Realized P/Ls + Unrealized P/Ls) that can’t go bellow that margin, so a cross margin is a little more complex to maintain.</p>\n<p>Alright, you go on and do what you should’ve done before anything else: Check BTCFutures’ documentation. There it says your position equity needs to be at least 1% of your position’s margin, or you will be margin called and liquidated.</p>\n<p>You then calculate that your maintenance margin was 0.001 BTC (0.1×1%). You look at the charts, searching for the moment you were liquidated, and you see it: seconds after the news about that exchange hack was out, the price quickly dropped from 1000 USD, where it was sitting for a while, to 900 USD (▼10%), your position was now worth 0.9 BTC (1−10%), so your P/L became -0.1 BTC (0.9−1), and your position equity became zero (0.1−0.1).</p>\n<p>A little before that the exchange started automatically placing orders to close your position and avoid <strong>system losses</strong>, you’re officially <a href=\"https://twitter.com/BitmexRekt\">#rekt</a>. That was a 100% loss caused by a 10% price movement. That’s the <strong>responsibility</strong> that comes with the power of leverage.</p>\n<h4>Going short and stop&nbsp;loss</h4>\n<p>Alright, lesson learned, let’s try this again. You send another 0.1 BTC to your account and your balance is 0.105 BTC again (you didn’t lose that 0.005 since you were on isolated margin).</p>\n<p>The price is still going down, currently at 860 USD, you want to quickly enter the market, so you place a market order to short 8 contracts at 10x leverage for approximately 0.093 BTC (100÷860×8÷10). Your order is immediately taken.</p>\n<p>You can manually <strong>add margin</strong> in order to increase your maintenance margin, so you go ahead and add 0.007 BTC, making a full 0.1 BTC and moving your maintenance margin to 0.001 BTC again. Some exchanges also have an <strong>auto add margin</strong> feature, which will automatically take funds from your balance and add to your margin if you’re close to a margin call.</p>\n<p>How can you protect yourself from being liquidated again? You can place a <strong>stop loss order</strong>. You do that by setting a <strong>trigger order</strong>, the way it works is it will place a limit order at a chosen price once the last traded price goes bellow (if you’re long) or above (if you’re short) a trigger price.</p>\n<p>The trigger order prices should be chosen according to your market analysis, which should include the price at which you consider that the signal you used to enter your position was false and is not valid anymore, demanding you to close your position, and the trigger price should be just above or bellow that price, depending on your position. I’ll be writing a post solely about the types of orders and a series of posts about technical analysis, so be sure to follow us.</p>\n<p>So, learn from the mistakes of the fictitious you and remember to place a stop loss order!</p>\n<h4>Closing</h4>\n<p>The price is now at 842.80 USD (▼2%), since you’re short, you have an unrealized profit of approximately 0.02 BTC, but you’re seeing some signs of the market getting bullish again, so you decide to close your position and realize these profits. You do that by opening the inverse position: longing 8 contracts, novating your previous contracts. Your position is closed and the profits realized and on your account, a nice 20% ROE.</p>\n<p>You see, that’s the beauty of trading: You can profit no matter if the market is bullish or bearish, it’s yours if you play it right. So make sure you practice and educate yourself, it’s worth it. BitMEX has a <a href=\"https://testnet.bitmex.com/\">testing platform</a> that works over the Bitcoin Testnet, so you can try it and practice without using any of your precious Bitcoin, I’ll be writing a post on how to do that soon, so again, remember to follow us.But wait, what would happen if you held your contract until settlement day? Well, it would settle at the last traded price, or an indexed price, depending on the exchange, and you’d realize the P/L from your position.</p>\n<h4>Socialized losses</h4>\n<p>Scary title, right?! It should be. Have you thought about what happens if the market suddenly becomes <strong>very</strong> volatile? Lot’s of people would hit their maintenance margin (not you, you remembered to set a stop loss), and the exchange would have to liquidate’em all, but to liquidate them the exchange needs to place orders and those orders need to be taken.</p>\n<p>What happens if some of those orders are still pending by settlement date? System loss would happen, meaning the math wouldn’t add up, so the exchange <em>socializes</em> those losses by taking part of the profits of profitable traders. Horrible, I know, but it’s part of the market and most exchanges have elaborate schemes to stop this from happening, besides, that’s very rare and never happened on some exchanges. Remember: read the exchange documentation, each one works differently. Have a nice trade!</p>\n<p><em>This post is intended to be as generic as possible and act as an introduction, if you liked it and want to learn about the specifics of real exchanges such as</em> <a href=\"https://www.bitmex.com/register/Payr2A\"><em>BitMEX </em></a><em>(register through this link to receive a 10%</em> <em>fee discount for the first six months), be sure to upvote this post and follow us</em> <em>to receive a notification when I post them.</em></p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "How do the futures market works? — Part 1",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><em>This article was originally posted on </em><a href=\"https://checksig.org/how-do-the-futures-market-works-cf31e9e1f9e0\"><em>my old blog</em></a><em> on Dec 24, 2016.</em></p>\n<p><em>This is the first part of a 2 parts post, you can read</em> <a href=\"https://checksig.org/how-do-the-futures-market-work-part-2-3fe9a47a8a7\"><em>the second one here</em></a><em>, where we talk specifically about cryptocurrency futures. </em>You understand how the <strong>spot market</strong> works (if you don’t, I’ll be writing a post about it soon) and now you’re trying to learn how does Bitcoin or Altcoins futures markets work, but you’re lost in all those milk and rice examples and can’t understand how can that be applied to cryptocurrencies. I’ll try to clarify this to you (with a corn example, yay!), while also solidifying this knowledge myself. We will study the futures market from the ground up.</p>\n<h3>Trading in the&nbsp;future</h3>\n<p>You can jump to the <a href=\"https://checksig.org/how-do-the-futures-market-work-part-2-3fe9a47a8a7\">second part of this post</a> if you just want to trade some futures and don’t want to go so deep into this, but I think it’s important to understand <em>why</em> things exist in the first place, especially when there’s money involved. But anyway, it’s up to you, you can always come back here if you start getting confused.</p>\n<p>Imagine this: You’re a popcorn producer and in 2 months you will need 1 ton of corn for your next batch. You can’t predict what will the price of corn be in 2 months, so you make your calculations using the corn spot price and you see that after governmental theft, sorry, <em>taxes</em>, production costs and all that, you will profit when you sell the popcorn.</p>\n<p>You meet with a corn farmer who just planted her crop, which she’ll harvest in 2 months. She agrees to sell you some corn from her next harvest. You make a contract: Mrs. Corn Farmer promises to deliver Mr. Popcorn Producer 1 ton of corn in 2 months in exchange for… How much?</p>\n<p>If you let the price be the spot price at the delivery date, you’d be <em>speculating</em>, you don’t know what that price will be! If that price goes down, you'll profit more, but if the price goes up, you’ll profit less and may even lose money. The reverse is true for the corn farmer.</p>\n<p>You then fix the price at the current market price: US$ 100, a price that works for both you since you know you’ll be able to profit this way, and the farmer thinks the spot price will be less than US$ 100 in 2 months, so you both sign the contract.</p>\n<p>That’s what a <strong>forward contract</strong> is: two parties make a <em>custom</em> contract (you will soon see why I’m calling it <em>custom</em>) agreeing to <strong>trade something</strong> at a <strong>future date</strong> and at a <strong>fixed price</strong>. A bit of financial jargon: The party that will profit if the price goes up and lose if the price goes down (you, the popcorn producer) is in what’s called a <strong>long position</strong>, the party that will profit if the price goes down and lose if the price goes up (the corn farmer) is in what’s called a <strong>short position</strong>.</p>\n<p>1 month has passed and the corn spot market price is 5% up. You, who’s in the long position (or simply put “<strong>You’re long</strong>”), are happy that you will only have to pay US$ 100 for 1 ton of corn now worth US$ 105 at the spot market. The farmer, who’s in the short position (or simply put “<strong>He is short</strong>”), starts thinking that if she hadn’t signed that contract and the spot price stays at US$ 105, or goes up even more, she’d be able to sell that 1 ton of corn at the spot market for a bigger profit, but it’s a contract, you’re happy with paying 5% less than the spot price and you’ll sue the farmer for breaching the contract if she doesn’t deliver.</p>\n<p>But you’re now <strong>bearish</strong>, you start thinking this may be just a temporary spike in the price, so you want to <strong>realize</strong> that still <strong>unrealized</strong> US$ 5 profit now, afraid of losing it. The farmer is <strong>bullish</strong>, she’s afraid of loosing even more money if that price keeps going up, so she wants to realize her US$ 5 loss before she loses even more.You know how to talk in terms of the farmer’s interests, so you make a proposal he can’t refuse: “You want to stop losing money, right? How’d you like to make a new contract where I sell you back that 1 ton of corn for US$ 105?”. You both sign that new contract.</p>\n<p>Now you’re long on the first contract but short on the second contract, effectively <strong>closing</strong> your position (and realizing a 5% profit), and she’s short on her first contract and long on the second contract, effectively closing her position (and realizing a 5% loss). That, signing a new contract that cancels the previous one (and in this case <em>closes</em> a position), is called <strong>novating</strong>.</p>\n<p>Another month passed, delivery date is here, the farmer’s fear was correct, the market price is now US$ 110. She’s glad she signed that second contract or she would’ve realized a 10% loss. You could’ve profited 10% instead of 5% had you kept your long open, but you’re still happy with your profit.She now needs to transport 1 ton of corn to you and you need to pay her US$ 100 (first contract), then she needs to pay you US$ 105 and you need to send that corn back to her (second contract), she’ll then sell the corn for US$ 110 at the spot market. I’m just kidding, that’d be stupid as hell. She can just sell her corn at spot price for US$ 110, pay you US$ 5, and keep US$ 105.</p>\n<h4>Speculator to the&nbsp;rescue</h4>\n<p>Meanwhile, another person with a higher risk tolerance, a <strong>speculator</strong>, has been watching all this and is now thinking “Huh, it looks like the corn price is rising, I’m bullish and ready to take a gamble…”.</p>\n<p>Now, you just signed another similar contract with the farmer for her next crop, this time at the spot price of US$ 110. You’re hoping to make some profit again, and she’s hoping to reduce her previous loss.</p>\n<p>1 week passes and the spot market price is up again at US$ 115, you want to do the same thing you did before and realize your US$ 5 profit, so you approach the popcorn producer and say: “Hey, it seems that the price is moving up, I’d like to realize my profit again.”, but you forgot to talk in terms of her interests, you talked about what <em>you</em> want and she’s now thinking: “I don’t want to realize a loss <em>again.</em> I’ll just hope that the price will go back down until the delivery date<em>.”</em>, so she goes “Nope.” and now you’re stuck with this contract and risking losing your unrealized profit, you start getting really bearish…</p>\n<p>That’s when the speculator starts acting. He smells that fear, he’s still bullish and he knows how to talk in terms of the your interests, so he approaches you and says: “Hey, I see you’re worried about losing that unrealized profit. How’d you like if I took that risk from you? I’m ready to help you realize that profit by buying that 1 ton of corn for the spot market price of US$ 115 at the original delivery date”. You take the offer by signing the contract, realizing your US$ 5 profit.</p>\n<p>He could then wait for the spot market price to go up and open another contract on the short position with some other speculator on the long position, that way he’d close (novate) his original long position and realize his profit, and so on, I think you got it. But here’s the thing: None of them have any intention whatsoever of buying or selling corn!Some trader could even short without having any corn or money! They’re just speculating on the <strong>underlying asset</strong>’s (corn) price <strong>volatility</strong> (movement) by opening and closing positions, realizing profits and losses, before the delivery date. The market can survive even without the asset producers (the farmer) and consumers (you) taking part in it before the delivery date.</p>\n<p>Since no corn is really being traded until the delivery date, only contract positions, this has become a <strong>forward market</strong>, an <strong>over-the-counter</strong> market of <strong>forward contracts</strong>, a type of <strong>derivative</strong>, meaning its value derives from some other thing’s value (corn, a <em>commodity</em>, in this case).</p>\n<p>But of course, on the delivery date of each contract whoever still has an open position must buy corn if long, and sell corn if short, even if that means taking a loss by buying at the spot market for a higher price and then selling for the lower contractual price or vice versa. Or risk being sued by the <strong>counterparty</strong>, the person on the other <strong>leg</strong> of the contract.In fact, the amount of corn being traded might become larger than the amount of corn being produced! This would mean that if a lot of these contracts have the same delivery date, which usually happens on future markets where contracts are standardized, at that date the demand for corn would become bigger since all those traders who ended short would have to compete to buy it at the spot market to sell it to the counterparty, rising the spot price.</p>\n<p>You should also notice that no money is being “created”, only transferred from one leg of the contract to the other.</p>\n<h4>Counterparty risk and standardization</h4>\n<p>Well, that escalated quickly and has become very interesting, but it’s also starting to look very messy. The contracts aren’t standardized, so the terms have to be discussed every time a new contract is to be created, this takes time and money.</p>\n<p>There’s also a lot of <strong>counterparty risk</strong>, the risk of one party of the contract <strong>defaulting</strong> (not living up to its contractual obligations), if that happens you can sue the other person, but that also takes time and money… Since that person now has a debt with you, instead of suing him you could simply sell that debt to someone else at a lower price, at least you’ll get <em>some</em> of the money and the new owner will be responsible for collecting the money.</p>\n<p>But anyway, these two problems and some others can be solved or reduced by introducing an <strong>exchange</strong> that will take care of:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>Creating <strong>standardized contracts</strong> (e.g.: Weekly, Biweekly and Quarterly), which in turn allows for <strong>higher market liquidity</strong>;</li>\n  <li>Making sure each trader has enough <strong>collateral</strong> (e.g.: a cash <strong>margin</strong>deposited on his exchange account) to live up to his contractual obligations, <strong>reducing counterparty risk</strong> (but there are now the risks associated with involving a third party, the exchange);</li>\n  <li>Forcing a trader’s position to be closed if the price fluctuates so much that his collateral is not enough anymore to cover his obligations, the dreaded <strong>margin call</strong> (you’ll understand that better soon);</li>\n  <li>Allowing traders to order entering a position and <strong>matching</strong> them to traders who ordered entering the inverse position;</li>\n  <li>Realize the profits and losses by <strong>transferring</strong> the money from a trader’s margin account into the other trader’s <strong>margin account</strong> (you’ll understand that better soon).</li>\n</ul>\n<p>All this for a small predetermined fee, be it a position opening fee, a position closing fee, a deposit fee, an order fee, a withdraw fee or a combination of these.</p>\n<p>With the exchange in place and the contracts, now called <strong>future contracts</strong>, standardized, a <strong>futures market</strong> is born!</p>\n<h4>Hedging</h4>\n<p>Now, you might be thinking: “Well, this kind of thing doesn’t seem to make much sense for <em>non-speculators,</em> such as the farmer.”</p>\n<p>Well, yes, farmers are usually busy with farming, hurricanes, rain and all that, not with speculation, but that doesn’t mean they have no place in the futures market as it can be used to <strong>hedge</strong> (limit risk) against price volatility.</p>\n<p>It goes like this: You have 1 ton of sugar in stock, this means you’re long on sugar and short on money. The price of sugar might go up or down but you want to lock the value of your stock, so you go into the market and short 1 ton of sugar. This way if the price goes up 5% your stock is now worth 5% more, but you’re also losing 5% on your short, if the price goes down 5% your stock is now worth 5% less, but you’re also profiting 5% on your short. This effectively locks the value of your stock, hedging you against price volatility.</p>\n<p>In the next post we talk about how to apply what you just learned to cryptocurrencies. <a href=\"https://checksig.org/how-do-the-futures-market-work-part-2-3fe9a47a8a7\">You can read it here</a>.</p>\n<p><em>This post is intended to be as generic as possible and act as an introduction, if you liked it and want to learn about the specifics of real exchanges such as</em> <a href=\"https://www.bitmex.com/register/Payr2A\"><em>BitMEX </em></a><em>(register through this link to receive a 10%</em> <em>fee discount for the first six months), be sure to upvote this post and follow us to receive a notification when I post them.</em></p>\n</html>",
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      "permlink": "the-reason-why-most-beginner-traders-fail-in-the-long-run",
      "title": "The reason why most beginner traders fail in the long run",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><em>This article was originally public on </em><a href=\"https://checksig.org/the-reason-why-most-beginner-traders-fail-in-the-long-run-d8c59924db50\"><em>my old blog</em></a><em>, on Sep 8, 2017.</em></p>\n<p>“Buy low, sell high”, sounds simple, right? But trading is <em>difficult</em> (if someone told you it’s not, it was a lie, maybe even a <em>scam</em>). How can you expect an activity that can pay as much as a very well-paid profession to be that much easier? It isn’t, if it was, your grandma and your dog would be trading and rich by now. But what is it that makes it difficult? You’ve memorized chart patterns, you’ve learned the lingo, you’ve learned about market psychology, you can chart like a TA god, but you’re struggling to be profitable, or too inconsistent. Why? Ask yourself:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>Are you properly managing your risk while you trade, or are you not even trading, but gambling, impulsively taking every position you see (or think you see) and hoping for the best?</li>\n  <li>How trustworthy is the platform you’re trading on (counterparty risk)?</li>\n  <li>Have you ever asked yourself about your own <em>risk tolerance</em>?</li>\n  <li>What about your trading style? Are you a <em>swing trader</em>, a <em>day trader</em>, or a <em>scalper</em>? What time frame are you trading on?</li>\n  <li>Do you even think about the <em>size</em> and the <em>risk/reward ratio</em> of your position?</li>\n  <li>Where will you place your <em>stop loss</em>? Are you even setting a <em>stop loss</em>, or — perish the thought — are you just “monitoring the position”?</li>\n  <li>What is your <em>target</em>? At what price(s) will you take profit?</li>\n  <li>Will you open the entire position at market, or spread limit orders through a range of prices?</li>\n  <li>Did you consider the outcomes for the position?</li>\n  <li>After you’re in the position, are considering if your idea was validated or invalidated?</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Or are you just plotting lines on charts and “going with your feeling”? Because you should know all this before deciding to enter or not any position. You must <em>have a plan</em> and <em>manage your risk</em>.</p>\n<blockquote><em><strong>This article is not intended to be a risk management guide</strong></em> <em>(although I’ll try to help you a little), there are</em> <a href=\"http://www.wallstreetmojo.com/top-best-risk-management-books/\"><em>entire books</em></a> <em>written on the subject that will do a much better service at this. This is only intended to get you interested on the subject and into the right path, and maybe, just maybe, save you from blowing your account up.</em></blockquote>\n<p>Risk management is the most important aspect of trading, without it, it’s just gambling with drawings, yet it’s the most overlooked by beginners. I’m saying this because I’ve been there (I’ve been trading for only 1 year, but I’m still alive and profitable), I see a lot of people who are still there, and I saw people who were there and blew their accounts (the destiny of anyone who overlooks this). The latter is one of the reasons why it is great to be inside a community of traders, not because of “signals” or asset advice, but because you can see other people’s mistakes and try to avoid them (and get a feeling of the market, of course). You are invited to <a href=\"http://telegram.whaleclub.io/\">join us on WhaleClub</a>, the biggest (and soon to be full) crypto trading community out there.</p>\n<blockquote>— Jim (@JimBTC) <a href=\"https://twitter.com/JimBTC/status/904833937016573952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 4, 2017</a></blockquote>\n<p>Four trade outcomes<br>\n1. Small win<br>\n2. Small loss<br>\n3. Big win<br>\n4. Big loss<br>\nEliminate number 4... and thats it.</p>\n<p>Experienced traders got this in their soul.</p>\n<p>“Cut your losses quickly and let profits run”, sounds simple too, but is actually very difficult to master. Have you ever entered a position, saw a little unrealized profit and rushed to close your position and realize it, only to see the price going much higher (or lower, if it was a short)? Or <em>much</em> worse: have you ever entered a position, saw the price action go against it, but held it open anyway, hoping to at least break even, only to see your losses become bigger and bigger? The euphoria of seeing profit and the denial of seeing loss can finish you. Lack of planning and risk management can finish you. You have to accept small losses (and keep them that way) and capture bigger winners. If you look at the trade history of an experienced trader it may have lots of very small losses, but they’re offset by big winners. <a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/dont-lose-your-shirt\">The more you lose, the harder it will be to get it back</a>. To be profitable on the long run you have to learn to plan and manage your trades. You don’t open a company without a business plan, or with one just to throw it away when the heat gets to you, why would you do this when trading? You should have a <em>trading system</em> and the <em>discipline</em> to follow it. So, how do you do it? Before anything, you must define yourself:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>Choose a <a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/which-trading-style-is-best-for-you\">trading style</a>;</li>\n  <li>Decide on a minimum risk/reward (I recommend no less that 1:2);</li>\n  <li>Choose a time frame, you can choose 2 others to support you (e.g. 15m, 1h and 4h);</li>\n  <li>Choose your tools (platforms, indicators, etc).</li>\n</ul>\n<p>When you see a setup, before deciding to enter the position, ask yourself:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li><a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/reward-to-risk-ratio\">What is the risk/reward of the position</a>? Is it good enough for you? <strong>Trade only the best, leave the rest</strong>;</li>\n  <li>How much of your account are you willing to put on for this trade? <a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/dont-lose-your-shirt\"><strong>I recommend no more than 2%</strong></a>;</li>\n  <li>What will be <a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/the-importance-of-correct-position-sizes\">the size of your position</a>?</li>\n  <li>What will be the trigger that will make you open the position? <strong>Be</strong> <a href=\"https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2013/07/23/Building_Patience_In_Your_Trading_With_Ichimoku.html\"><strong>patient</strong></a><strong>, don’t FOMO</strong>;</li>\n  <li><a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/stop-loss-whats-that\">Where is your stop loss</a>? <strong>Don’t ever leave a position open without a stop loss!</strong></li>\n  <li>If you’re margin trading, what would your liquidation price be? <a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/leverage-the-killer\">How much <strong>leverage</strong> should you use</a>?</li>\n  <li>What is your target? At what levels will you take profit along the way? I like using the <a href=\"https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2013/08/08/Definitive_Ichimoku_Guide.html\">Ichimoku Cloud</a> to help me with the stop loss and take profits;</li>\n  <li>How will you open the position? A market order? Multiple limit orders? <strong>Limit orders are almost always preferable</strong>.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>One last thing: way too many times I’ve seen people adjusting their stop loss and take profit higher in order to make the position fit a certain risk reward. Don’t. Do. That. If you defined that <em>your minimum</em> R/R is 1:2 and after analyzing the market you see price at 1000, support at 900 and resistance at 1100, that’s a possible position, but it’s a 1:1, way too risky for you to take it, <em>your analysis of support and resistance defined that. </em>You can’t simply make your stop loss and/or take profit higher so that “the position will have a better R/R”, in reality it does not, no matter what you want. Your R/R is a <em>filter</em>, not an algorithm. If the position doesn’t fit it, you simply <strong>don’t enter it</strong>, let it go and wait for a better one.And while the position is open:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>Is the idea that got you into this position still <strong>valid</strong>? You should get out if not;</li>\n  <li>If the trade is going well, <a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/what-is-scaling\">should you scale in</a>? Should you scale out?</li>\n</ul>\n<p>You can learn more about all this at <a href=\"https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/undergraduate-senior#risk-management\">babypips.com</a>.Hopefully this will help you not to lose everything.\\</p>\n<p>Here's a <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxeSuw9MDRo\">great video</a> by <a href=\"https://twitter.com/MrJozza\">MrJozza</a>, a well known member of WhaleClub.</p>\n</html>",
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      "parent_author": "zavan",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://checksig.org/how-to-split-your-bcc-bch-from-your-btc-xbt-using-electrum-cash-cb91ca4a5961",
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      "permlink": "how-to-split-your-bitcoin-cash-bcc-bch-from-your-btc-xbt-using-electron-cash",
      "title": "How to split your Bitcoin Cash (BCC/BCH) from your BTC/XBT using Electron Cash",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><em>The post was originally posted on </em><a href=\"https://checksig.org/how-to-split-your-bcc-bch-from-your-btc-xbt-using-electrum-cash-cb91ca4a5961\"><em>my old blog </em></a><em>in Aug 1, 2017.</em></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>So you want your BCC/BCH/Whatever (I’ll refer to it as BCH throughout the rest of the post) airdrop. That’s okay, everybody loves free monies. I’ll tell you the way I and some friends did it and that worked for us, your situation might be different and <em>I don’t guarantee that this will work, don’t blame me if something goes wrong</em>. <strong>I recommend that you read the whole post before trying anything.</strong></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Safety first: You gotta take all your BTC from the chain that it shares with BCH, this will make sure that if anything goes wrong with the split, your BTC is still safe since BCH won’t know anything about it’s new block. To do this just create a new wallet (with a new private key/seed and all, not just a new address) in your preferred, hum, wallet, and transfer all your BTC there, this won’t be reflected on BCH’s blockchain because it has already forked. Wait for a couple of confirmations before continuing, you can go <a href=\"http://www.electroncash.org/#downld\">download and install Electron Cash</a> while you wait. Now that your BTC are safe we need to split the BCH into a new address that is only present in the new BCH blockchain. To do this you will need to know the private keys that hold your BCH, some wallets allow you to easily export them (google it), whereas on others, like breadwallet, you will need to manually extract your private keys from your seed. <em>If you used the original Electrum to hold your coins on this same computer Electron Cash should import them automatically, so just skip this section and send them to a new address. </em>To extract your private keys from your seed:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>Copy the addresses that contained the coins before the fork (check your transaction history) and put them aside;</li>\n  <li>Go to <a href=\"https://iancoleman.github.io/bip39/\">this decryption tool</a> (assuming your wallet is BIP39 compatible, google it);</li>\n  <li>Disconnect from the internet;</li>\n  <li>Type your seed into the “BIP39 Mnemonic” field;</li>\n  <li>Type your password if you have one;</li>\n  <li>Down there at “Derivation Path” choose BIP44 (for Bitpay or Copay), or BIP32 (for Breadwallet);</li>\n  <li>Configure the parameters to match your wallet’s derivation path (google it like “[wallet name] derivation path”, breadwallet’s is m/0'/0 for normal addresses and m/0'/1 for change addresses);</li>\n  <li>The website should give you some addresses/public keys/private keys, look for the addresses you saved earlier and save the private keys associated to them;</li>\n  <li>Keep clicking the “Show more rows” button until you find all your addresses.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This can vary depending on your wallet, please leave a reply to this post if you wish that I do a dedicated step-by-step for your wallet. Once you have all your private keys, run Electron Cash, click Wallet &gt; Private Keys &gt; Sweep, paste your private keys one by line and click “Sweep”, check that you didn’t forget any addresses by matching the balance to your BTC balance, and click “Broadcast” to broadcast the transaction to the BCH network. Wait for a few confirmations et voilà, your coins are split. Now you can hold it there on Electron Cash, transfer to another BCH wallet, or go dump it on <a href=\"https://www.viabtc.com/\">ViaBTC</a> or <a href=\"https://bittrex.com/\">Bittrex</a> (just use the wallet to transfer your BCH to the exchange as usual).</p>\n</html>",
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