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      "body": "Congratulations @cryptomedication! You have completed the following achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/post4day.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@cryptomedication) You published 4 posts in one day\n\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\nTo support your work, I also upvoted your post!\n\n\n> Do you like [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)? Then **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "title": "Trading a Trend Break",
      "body": "# Trading a Trend Break\n\nFigured I’d write this because these trend breaks tend to lead a lot of people to profits from what I’ve observed.\n\nSo, let’s get right to it shall we?\n\n# What is a Trend Break\n\nWithout being facetious, it’s essentially a ‘break’ in trend.\n\n#### _\n\n# What’s a Trend?\n\nIt’s exactly what you imagine a trend to be. It’s just a general pattern of price action.\n\nTrends typically trend upward or downward.\n\nBelow is an example of a  **downtrend:**\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*zvyr0r8kzqVWbhkO4pYkGQ.png)\n\nThis isn’t drawn exactly, but you can see what’s going on.\n\n# How Do You Deterimine Trend?\n\n### #1 — Drawing Trendlines\n\nThat orange line above is a ‘trendline’. This is one way that we can determine whether there’s a definitive trend or not.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*ndB8qpGZO_9Foq88PfCMKQ.png)\n\nSource:  [https://learn.tradimo.com/technical-analysis/trend-lines](https://learn.tradimo.com/technical-analysis/trend-lines)\n\n#### How to Draw Trendlines\n\nHere is an example of how to draw trendlines. Typically the trendline that you draw should be one where the price has hit  **multiple times**.\n\nThere are two rules that you need to remember when drawing trendlines though:\n\n1.  ) In order to create a trendline for a  **downtrend**, you need to draw the line across the top.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*vdnkEah6Oq5Jdw60gBHrTA.png)\n\nLike so\n\n2.) In order to create a  **trendline**  for an  **uptrend**, the line should be drawn underneath the candles — like so:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*DO-hepvgM6lLLASkHyK8yA.png)\n\nLike so\n\n\n\n# 2 — Indicators\n\nSo, almost all lagging indicators in the world\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*NVq-BSPD3HXRcnB51_z6-A.png)\n\nSource:  [http://www.visualcapitalist.com/12-types-technical-indicators-stocks/](http://www.visualcapitalist.com/12-types-technical-indicators-stocks/)\n\n#### So, the lagging indicators in question are:\n\n-   Moving Averages\n-   MACD\n-   Bollinger Bands\n-   Average True Range\n\n#### The true indicators that will really help you determine the trend are:\n\n-   MACD\n-   ADX\n-   DMI (includes ADX)\n-   Aroon UP / Aroon UP>Aroon DOWN\n\nWe’ll get into how you can do so with these indicators a bit later.\n\nNow, you may be wondering:\n\n# How Do I Trade Trend Breaks?\n\nGreat question!\n\nThe easiest way to do this will be through the use of trendlines. Let’s take another example.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*CpQCevvPxZVFBKi67Mbs8Q.png)\n\nIf the price breaks above where that red line is, then you can consider that a potential  **trend reversal**.\n\nThis  **_does not mean that the price is in an uptrend now_**. It simply means that the downtrend has been broken.\n\nIt’s possible that the price may continue to trade sideways.\n\n**Let’s check out an example of such a break:**\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*eJXclDpigdJq-WfWATrNuQ.png)\n\nAbove is an example of a trendbreak\n\nOne of the key features of a trend break is a spike in volume as the price breaks above the trend:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*F87eqL6k57owknzimpTcJg.png)\n\nYou can see this occur above\n\nNow, there’s no guarantee that the price shoots in that direction. Sometimes it will stall after it breaks trend before it continues further up. Or there are times where it may even break back below the trendline.\n\nHowever, this is not too frequent in the land of cryptocurrency.\n\nThus, when there is a break in trend, this is seen as a  **major**  buy signal. Especially, when that downtrend has occurred for a  **_long_**  period of time.\n\n# Watching Out for Bull Traps\n\nThis is why it’s critical to make sure that you avoid bull traps at any and all costs.\n\n> “What is a Bull Trap?”\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*YhSCOIc2ScES8Jwdffc4JQ.png)\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*rl9GkJxK0bWxkACzEe_-dQ.png)\n\nSource:  [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulltrap.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulltrap.asp)\n\nSo, essentially this is when traders take a ‘long’ position in a crypto in anticipation that it will break the trend before it actually does break trend.\n\nThe concept of a bull trap shows why this is dangerous. If you’re incorrect, then you stand to lose a substantial amount of money.\n\n# Conclusion\n\nJust another one of many articles that will be releasing in the coming times regarding TA & other trading strategies.",
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      "title": "$XLM Stellar Price Analysis (With A Sprinkle of FA)",
      "body": "# $XLM Stellar Price Analysis (With A Sprinkle of FA)\n\n![Image result for Stellar](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*tmap9PeCL2rHVT1ttt1gNA.png)\n\nI’m forced to post this up here instead of leaving it on TradingView because they  **_hid my idea_** (no clue why):\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1250/1*QEqDWSwlmnredT9u4hs1aA.png)\n\nBut luckily, I saved the whole thing and I won’t let those haters rain on our parade, so here is the full, unredacted version below. I put it up just a few hours ago, and I made some longer-term analyses on it, so I would consider it to still be valid at this moment in time.\n\n# Stellar Price Analysis (July 14th, 2018)\n\nThings are looking promising at first glance when you check at the $XLM chart.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*NNoT4Yt__c4IFeVLpBlbdw.png)\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*kPKSDDmXS1ORZK4pKgLhcQ.png)\n\nAs you can see in the chart above, there is a potential double-bottom chart formation that has developed on $XLM’s 1D chart.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/0*Rxt8iG5Kwe3I9CXG.png)\n\nLike its counterpart, the double top — the double bottom works in a similar way.\n\nI wrote about the double-bottom pattern for all those that have not heard of it before or are unsure of how to trade:\n\n[**Double-Bottom Pattern**  \n_Like its counterpart, the double top — the double bottom works in a very similar way._medium.com](https://medium.com/thedailydose/double-bottom-pattern-cf2e8e1271d3 \"https://medium.com/thedailydose/double-bottom-pattern-cf2e8e1271d3\")[](https://medium.com/thedailydose/double-bottom-pattern-cf2e8e1271d3)\n\nCheck it out above.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*XqCQiwB7zFrCX0d6wHgM0w.png)\n\nAs you can see, the most recent price action on the daily chart for Stellar ($XLM) shows a break in the trend in the last couple of days.\n\nThis breaks the short-term trend for Stellar, which was in place since early May (approximately May 2nd) against the $BTC pairing.\n\nThe breakout was accompanied with volume as well, which is a positive sign.\n\nIf you’re curious on how to trade a trendbreak, I also wrote on article on that too:\n\n## Trading a Trend Break\n\nFigured I’d write this because understanding how to trade a trend break will help you make a lot of $$ as a trader if you know what you’re doing:\n\n[**Trading a Trend Break**  \n_Figured I’d write this because these trend breaks tend to lead a lot of people to profits from what I’ve observed._medium.com](https://medium.com/thedailydose/trading-a-trend-break-2073e5b37769 \"https://medium.com/thedailydose/trading-a-trend-break-2073e5b37769\")[](https://medium.com/thedailydose/trading-a-trend-break-2073e5b37769)\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1250/1*SXuOABGnfRg0YfSJ9So4vQ.png)\n\nAs you can see, it’s been hovering around that lower Fib Level, and looks to be eyeing a strong move upward.\n\nTime will tell whether this comes to fruition or not.\n\n# Quick Fundamental Analysis\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*4Bg0IJ-yGaxDNXGIAaHeAA.png)\n\nObviously, the massive growth in volume is due to the fact that Coinbase announced it may be adding Stellar among $BAT, $ZCash (why?), $ADA, and $0x\n\n#### Coinbase Announced on July 13th, 2018 that it is Exploring the Addition of Cardano, Basic Attention Token, Stellar Lumens, Zcash, and 0x\n\nPerhaps the most ambiguous announcement (can you call it that?) ever made.\n\nHere’s the blog link too in case you were looking for that:\n\n[**Coinbase is Exploring Cardano, Basic Attention Token, Stellar Lumens, Zcash, and 0x**  \n_We are exploring the addition of several new assets, and will be working with local banks and regulators to add them in…_blog.coinbase.com](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-is-exploring-cardano-basic-attention-token-stellar-zcash-and-0x-9e44f0eb823f \"https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-is-exploring-cardano-basic-attention-token-stellar-zcash-and-0x-9e44f0eb823f\")[](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-is-exploring-cardano-basic-attention-token-stellar-zcash-and-0x-9e44f0eb823f)\n\n## Bullishness Triggered Despite Lack of Commitment on Coinbase’s Part\n\nDespite the  **_extreme_**  unwillingness on Coinbase’s to even so much as confirm a likelihood of these cryptos’ addition to their servers, the price of all of them still rose considerably anyway.\n\nAs you can see from the text above, the gist of the tweet was/is that Coinbase would merely be ‘exploring’ rather than making a definitive decision on whether the tokens/cryptos would be added or not.\n\nThis ambivalence was a bit frustrating for a lot of traders/observers in the space that prefer definitive answers over vague conjecture. However, ambivalence aside, it was still enough to pump the aforementioned tokens, Stellar included.\n\n## Coinbase Made a Similar Announcement for Ethereum Classic Last Month\n\nOn June 11th, 2018, they stated:\n\nThis tweet is noticeably more definitive.\n\nHere’s the blog post from Coinbase on it as well:\n\n[**Adding Ethereum Classic Support to Coinbase**  \n_We are pleased to announce our intention to add support for Ethereum Classic (ETC) to Coinbase in the coming months. We…_blog.coinbase.com](https://blog.coinbase.com/adding-ethereum-classic-support-to-coinbase-becb9a337e9c \"https://blog.coinbase.com/adding-ethereum-classic-support-to-coinbase-becb9a337e9c\")[](https://blog.coinbase.com/adding-ethereum-classic-support-to-coinbase-becb9a337e9c)\n\nIt’s worth noting that Coinbase  **affirmed the decision to add $ETC with zero ambiguity while essentially telling investors on July 13th, that $XLM among other tokens had merely crossed their mind.**\n\n## Ethereum Classic Price Action Ever Since\n\nIt’s worth noting that the price of $ETC subsequently increased by 50%+ (USD value) at its height:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*Ixm5eXeMtqOEulJxlGD9FQ.png)\n\nThis move did not just happen on one massive candle. It took 27 days for the entire gains of this move to be realized.\n\n### Ever since the peak of $ETC’s price move following the Coinbase announcement, it has consolidated back down to a net gain of +28.25%.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*FTlY6UXlwTJ7qFvrgzvX3w.png)\n\nThis is still vastly outperforming most of the other cryptos in the market now over the same period.\n\n# Thus Far, Stellar Has Only Appreciated +8% in price\n\n:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*1FEVY8NTGeLzyt9VtnHZWg.png)\n\nIn my humble opinion, $ETC should be considered a leading example for the potential price action of $XLM. It’s also worth noting that $ETC did that during a month when the crypto market had lost >25%+ of its market capitalization. I’d imagine $ETC’s move would have been much more substantive if the market were moving upwards as well.\n\nAt this present moment in time, the market is at a higher point than where it was on June 28th. So, there’s still positive gains over the last 2 weeks or so. But the vast majority of those gains that came this month were wiped out over the last 7 days. So, take this with a grain of salt.\n\n**_Remember:_** It’s only been 24-hours. The ‘bottom zone’ for Bitcoin is still holding at this very moment, and hype from the ETF decision (for Bitcoin) in August still has not taken hold yet.\n\nSo, this spike in value in anticipation of the “flood of investors” that individuals continue to mention (referencing Bitcoin’s ETF specifically as well), is something that I expect to continue in the near future.\n\n# Conclusion\n\nThis is a coin that I would watch carefully. There could be a potential entry in here. Maybe there isn’t.\n\nIt sort of remains to be seen at this point.\n\nIf you asked my opinion, I would say that it’s going to definitely increase in price over the next few weeks. It may not pump that entire time, but I think that folks are going to continue to see it as a strong pick up over the next few weeks.\n\n**_Disclaimer_**: I do not hold $XLM or any other coin mentioned in this article and I was not paid by anyone nor profited directly from writing this article as well. I am not a financial adviser either and this story is not financial advice. This post is an  **_opinion_**.\n\nAll decisions that you make are yours and yours alone.",
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      "title": "Justifying a $3k-$4k Bitcoin Price Analysis: Historical LookBack",
      "body": "# In-Depth Bitcoin Historical Analysis That May Provide the Answer for What Comes Next\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/0*p1na_R4tAIhADWYg.jpg)\n\nThis endeavor started with me just putting up some price charts in my Telegram channel and noting some observations.\n\nThen, I started to take a closer look and notice some distinct patterns and phases via technical analysis that Bitcoin has went through.\n\nAfter making these discoveries, I feel more convicted than ever before that my findings may shed light on the  **_potential price action of Bitcoin in the “long-term”_**.\n\nDisclaimer: This is not financial advice.\n\n# Introduction\n\nI used this site here:  [https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/](https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/)\n\nAlong with TradingView as my frame of reference for the price analysis that you’ll see below.\n\nThis  [https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/](https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/)  link is useful because it provides accurate price information on Bitcoin (from Mt. Gox) dating back to 2010. Which is exactly what we need.\n\n### Not Looking at Fundamental Analysis Here\n\nI’m only interested in the price information though, not the fundamental analysis because times are entirely differtent now.\n\nWe already know that Bitcoin is pretty much legitimate. It has some outspoken critics, but for the most part we’re way beyond arguing whether this should be considered ‘money’ or not.\n\nI think the vast majority of people that know what Bitcoin is would be more than happy to accept a Bitcoin from you if you offered them one.\n\n# Starting With 2011\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*qGe-o2iUbNFa-cnenPZePg.png)\n\nI started off with this peak here on June 9th 2011; Price of Bitcoin was $29.58\n\nMt. Gox still dominating the scene. Price started off on Gox at $0.05 in early 2010. Considerable increase before this first top that Bitcoin experienced.\n\nWhat I took note of though is that the vast majority of the price movement occurred in the few months prior to that top.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*xM29wEEa2J7vyclG65kmzQ.png)\n\nOn April 30th, 2011 the price was hovering at $2-$3/Bitcoin. Which represented a solid gain for the year already at that point.\n\nBut from that period all the way to June 9th, 2011 (really in the space of a little over a month) the price increased 800%+.\n\nObviously, this led to a blow-off top.\n\n## The First Real Bitcoin Bear Market (2011)\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*iF6GZ-LMRZK1e9JOORkWIA.png)\n\nJust 5 months later, on November 18th, 2011 it hit its lowest point again ($2.14)\n\nA note that I took here is that the blow-off tops that I studied on Bitcoin’s price movement usually hit their “low” within a few months of the initial blow off top. But the journey back to that ATH took well over a year and the price trended well-below it for the majority of the time before the next blow-off top.\n\n### Interestingly enough, the DJI (Dow Jones; American Stock Market) was shitting the bed around the same time too:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*SMoWcbAijDUkmBrmxX_GIw.png)\n\nI’ve always felt like Bitcoin’s price movements and the stock market were very intuitively linked to one another.\n\nOf course, Bitcoin was hit exponentially harder than stocks were. But it’s worth noting the similarities in the markets at the time. It’s not like Bitcoin fell off while the Dow Jones was crushing new ATHs every week.\n\n## Low Point During the 2011 Bitcoin Bear Market\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*xIkvXEsnSU4qQgAgvzv3KQ.png)\n\nIt finishes the year strong around $9 in 2011. I can finally use TradingView because they actually have this data on the Bitstamp charts.\n\n2011 is the first of many years that establish the trend (and this is also the case w most global markets) of wild speculation and investment during the fall months (particularly as we get closer and closer to Christmas/New Years’ Eve)\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*3O8Tmy2SshGi5Q4YgeMytg.png)\n\nOf course, following this gain throughout November and December, there’s another big blow out in the price during the first few months of the year\n\nPrice stabilizes around $5 for a while. Doesn’t ever touch that $2-$3 range though again. Bitcoin buyers are done with that.\n\nThe end of the year for 2012 finishes with a bang for Bitcoin though. It outperforms the hell out of traditional markets as well (I feel like people thinking the world would end in 2012 had something to do with this).\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*1ghIyEeFsdiSqGDBYvmGbQ.png)\n\nAppreciated 189% from April 2012 to January 2013. Ended up at $17 roughly.\n\nBitcoin is still well short of its ATH at that point.\n\nThe ATH was $29 which occurred June 2011.\n\nThe ATH of $29 set June 2011 was not surpassed until February 24th, 2013 btw. So that’s 20, almost 21 months from that blow off top in 2011 to the new ATH.\n\nA year and 8/9 ish months.\n\nJust an FYI\n\n# Analyzing the 2013 Bitcoin Bull Market\n\n2013 is an interesting year in my opinion because of course the Mt. Gox event happened and we all sort of accept that that’s the reason or the trigger for the massive price drop in Bitcoin. But, 2013 is when you can really notice how closely the stock market and Bitcoin are paired together\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*azjDm02wr3-OGeLNH9bR0A.png)\n\nHere’s the price action for Bitcoin from January 2013 to December 2013.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*PnvZ-cBfbsp-gka1VMzm3Q.png)\n\nHere’s the DJI over the same period.\n\nBoth had amazing years. I’ll put the DJI to the side though, because the most relevant and intriguing stuff happens during the following years.\n\nWhat I noticed about Bitcoin’s price action, in specific, up to that peak in 2013 (and afterward too), is that a price consolidation before the continuation of a bull run typically has only taken 6–8 months max.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*wTy6nfsxGcd-wRUUQS_8WQ.png)\n\nYou can see here that Bitcoin hit a localized top in 2013, followed by a period of consolidation (I boxed) before continuing the bull run\n\nSome folks are under the impression that this is what could be happening to the price now.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*qEU1olXpPrEKLe2-5uDOXg.png)\n\nPrice took 6 months in 2013; from April to October, before continuing on and finishing the year strong.\n\n2014, obviously was an ugly year from that blow-off top at roughly $1100.\n\n----------\n\nNow, in this part, we’re going to analyze the  **bear markets** that followed the  **2011 and 2013 bull runs.**\n\n# Bitcoin Bear Market Analysis for 2013\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*-AIsdOJfvkGTKl_JxdWAaA.png)\n\n$400 stood as a reliable support for the price throughout 2014 for 9 months before it finally caved in September\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*7bgH125n6tG7TwwfIo5TIA.png)\n\nThat support was noticeably 64% lower than the ATH\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*gpbjuxI4mXY5mgoBgk6G-g.png)\n\nOnce the price broke down south of that support, it led to a cascase of sell volume that brought the price to its ultimate low; $155 (approx.)\n\nThat was 60% below the $400 support roughly.\n\nWorth noting that the price did not break over this support for over a year (420 days)\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*sR2_gE6yKrcIgUr5ibsoKQ.png)\n\nUtlimately, this led to an 86% (approx.) drawdown overall from ATH to the lowest point of that bear market\n\nWhat’s crazy is how similar this situation is to the breakdown in the price in 2011 as well (elapsed over a slightly diff time frame though)\n\n# Bitcoin Bear Market Analysis for 2011\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*oqRUn65byaI2WCG0oGvM0A.png)\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*-QWC3JWflmSNadEdiBTl9g.png)\n\n$7.80 — $8.50 range was holding as support in the months following that blow off top at $29.\n\nThat was approx. 70% below the ATH. Then the price broke below that support in September and hit the all-time low of $2.50 (approx.) the next month in October.\n\nIn 2014, that support broke in December and the all time low for that period of $155 was hit the next month in January.\n\nBoth supports had held each other for months. And when those supports finally broke, they became resistance points. And it took the price almost a year in each scenario before breaking that resistance.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*gpDyaQUnMi220Hi5eIPJ1g.png)\n\nFrom that break below $8 in September 2011, the price did not surpass that point again until July 2012.\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*aMXGaU9Gw3wOI669t4sJHQ.png)\n\nSimilarly, after the price broke below support in January 2015, it did not break back above December 2015 (11 months later)\n\nSo a little under a year, misspoke by saying it took a year.\n\n# Analyzing the Results of Our Observations\n\nIt’s worth noting though that in both cases (2011 and 2014), after the major support was broken, the all time low for those periods hit and then the price eventually cracked above that resistance once again — the price never again fell below that point.\n\n### So, let’s recap 2011:\n\n1. Bitcoin goes through mania in 2011. Appreciates from just pennies on the dollar up to $29.58.\n\n2. The vast majority of the price gain comes in the 1–2 months before the ATH.\n\n3. There’s a tremendous blow-off and the price draws down 70%.\n\n4. This 70% point serves as the long-term support for a few months. This stood at $7.80-$8.30 (range estimate).\n\n5. Eventually the support broke in September 2011. Price falls all the way down to $2.40 ish. This is a total retrace of 90%+ which is steep.\n\n6. The price stays below the long-term support of $7.80-$8.50 for the next 8-ish or so months.\n\n7. Once the price does break through the long-term support (which became resistance since the price was beneath it), Bitcoin never saw south of $8 again.\n\n8. Price continued to appreciate until the next ATH in December 2013.\n\n### So, let’s recap 2013:\n\n1. Bitcoin goes through mania in 2013. Appreciates from just $15 all the way to $1100 (approx)\n\n2. The vast majority of the price gain comes in the 1–2 months before the ATH.\n\n3. There’s a tremendous blow-off and the price draws down 65%.\n\n4. This 65% point serves as the long-term support for a few months. This stood at the $380-$450 range.\n\n5. Eventually the support broke in December 2014. Price falls all the way down to $150-ish. This is a total retrace of 85%, which is steep.\n\n6. The price stays below the long term support of $400 for the next 10–11 ish months (until December 2015).\n\n7. Once the price does break through the long-term support (which became resistance since the price was beneath it), Bitcoin never saw south of $400 again.\n\n8. Price continued to appreciate until the next ATH in December 2017.\n\n> You see where we’re going with this right ?\n\n### So, let’s recap 2017:\n\n1. Bitcoin goes through mania in 2017. Appreciates from just $800 all the way to almost $20k.\n\n2. The vast majority of the price gain comes in the 1–2 months before the ATH.\n\n3. There’s a tremendous blow-off and the price draws down 65% (seriously; $6.8k is actually 65% below)\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*09tlo2ZYxfEa4Lj7qC8j7Q.png)\n\n4. This 65% point has served as the long-term support for a few months.\n\nWhen do we think #5 is going to come into play? And if we don’t think #5 is coming into play, why not? It appears as though the price has already broken this point technically, but it has not fallen out of our Bull Defense Zone (different article; ask me to outline if you need it).\n\n## Conclusion/Takeaways\n\nYou could take this negatively like “Shit, this dude could be right. The price might drop way more from where we’re at.”\n\nOr you could do the math and see where the low was after the 2011 and 2013 bull runs and calculate how much money you would’ve made if you caught either one of them.\n\nAnd then realize that this might potentially be an opportunity to be in prime position to get another cash grab like that.\n\nLowest point after the 2011 bull run was $2.50. Roughly. Next ATH was $1100.\n\nNext lowest point after the 2013 bull run was $150. Roughly. Next ATH was $20k.",
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      "title": "Bitcoin Cash: Entry Looks Like a Gamble",
      "body": "# Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/d31553c1395820d0ec5e4.png)\n\nI decided to do an analysis on Bitcoin Cash, because it's one of the top 5 coins and it's one that we talk about the least probably out of all of them (minus the constant Roger Ver hate).\n\nSo, let's check it out in full here:\n\n# Bitcoin Price Analysis\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/5989c060b5e0f5360a84b.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Xux2kC4U/\n\n# This is the Basic Chart for Bitcoin Cash on the Daily Chart.\n\nNow, here's the next thing that I'm checking out on the daily:\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/a0c9d0f620cca32a2469b.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gnAOeT04/\n\nThe price action changed directions to a minor uptrend on the daily from July 11th/12th.\n\nThis is the downtrend from May 6th (so, this lasted longer than it did for Bitcoin and other cryptos in the Top 5).\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/139f9f2bbbebc76ca6d7b.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/43iqMFAz/\n\n  \n\n# Double-Bottom Chart Pattern\n\nThe turning point here to break out of that trend was on July 16th. Definitively.\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/339de56a926f9ae2b0534.png)\n\nSo, the double-bottom pattern that formed on the 1D chart is fairly obvious at this point.\n\nIt appears as though the re-test of the neckline has already occurred as well.\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/9a54192a9d73a9b190aa0.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wRq5ZmqS/\n\nSo, based on what we know about the double-bottom pattern (from this article that I wrote on it):\n\n[https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptomedication/how-to-trade-the-double-bottom](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptomedication/how-to-trade-the-double-bottom)'\n\n  \n\nSo, let's calculate the gains that the double-bottom pattern predicts that we should be seeing.\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/bc0cc8cf22ccffba0ea94.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UlHxB9Bm/\n\nSo, the price at the neckline = $789.\n\nThe distance between the neckline and the bottom of the double-bottom formation = $121 (as shown above by the rectangular box).\n\nIn order to find out the 'target price' for the completion of the pattern, we add the two values above.\n\nSo, $789+$121 = $910\n\n  \n\n# Resistance Points From the Chart\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/06dfa4cef570b9f0e19a8.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Et8a2UWu/\n\nCoincidentally, the next nearest overhead resistance on the chart rests at $930.\n\nHowever, there is one intermediate resistance that the price is currently sitting at as we speak.\n\nCheck it out below:\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/f9b8e5055adf218d9b000.png)\n\n  \n\n  \n\n# Fibonacci Chart\n\n  \n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/7fd0caf71f2fc858a080f.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QE257xp3/\n\nThe 78.6% retracement point for $BCH is hovering at $1104 as well.\n\n# In All Reality $BCH is a Complete Gamble Right Now\n\nThe reason that I say this is because of the vast difference in price between potential resistance/support points on the daily chart.\n\n  \n\nFor instance, there's an overhead resistance at $930 (as mentioned above), which constitutes a solid gain of approximately 11%.\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/8fa89ccd9d05124808959.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Z180crNH/\n\n  \n\nHowever, there is an even more precipitous drop that could occur if it were to teeter overboard (Bitcoin is **_very overbought right now on the markets_**). If the markets were to face a pretty serious consolidation in the next few days, then that could signal some major trouble for $BCH.\n\nThe downside is **_very steep from where it's at currently_**.\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/4330bb4b165e472bf55bc.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/roKPSWdA/\n\nA mere drop from the current price down to that double-bottom support means a depreciation of 20%, which is fairly vicious.\n\nIf we look at the long-term 'bottom' support for 2018, then that price drop is even more precipitous.\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/04c114cba39ff55e54322.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ryz17OBg/\n\nA visit back down to that support at $600 would represent a total loss of 30%.\n\nThis is important to note because **_its a possible scenario if things don't go right._**\n\n  \n\n  \n\n# Relative Strength Index (14)\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/4871b7c9184dbeb6b73b2.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/s5Le53oh/\n\nAdmittedly, though, the Relative Strength Index looks pretty damn good from where I'm standing.\n\nThere's definitely a lot of room to grow on the daily from what I'm seeing, and no strong divergence to indicate that the price is looking to topple over or enter into a fairly heavy period of consolidation. This is positive news for $BCH.\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/16d4c9ec36bbc15a65967.png)\n\n# Rate of Change of the RSI(14)\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/3ce31fca9c5fde1c6db18.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/U4zEPqtU/\n\nI won't get too deep into those two lines above since I've already covered it like a million times already, but this cross of the Rate of Change of the RSI(14) over the EMA(9) of that same value = bullish/buy signal.\n\nNot saying to 'buy' off of that indicator alone, but it's definitely something to consider here.\n\nLooks like there's a lot of room to grow and positive momentum behind $BCH as well.\n\nLet's see what the Balance of Power has to say\n\n# Balance of Power\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/1c1bdebe9cbd89f32b33c.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uPlKLlb9/  \n\nThis isn't a normal 'Balance of Power' indicator that you're probably used to seeing on TV.\n\nWhat I did was apply the RSI(14) to this indicator, and then I smoothed that RSI value over with an EMA(50).\n\nPretty easy and it has yielded an **_extremely effective strategy_**.\n\n###   \n\n# CryptoMedication Volatility RSI\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/58a0b1726a9d31353f874.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/r382r4pA/\n\n  \n\n# Strategical Planning for the Trade / Conclusion\n\n![](http://telegra.ph/file/fe4b32e029f2554ec083e.png)\n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uDf3A8ws/\n\nAs stated before, this entry (on either side of the trade) feels like a gamble.\n\nI could justify the price headed toward $787, but I could also justify it going to $930-940.\n\nThus, my outlook on this trade = **_Neutral._**",
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      "title": "How to Trade the Double Bottom",
      "body": "# Double-Bottom Pattern\n\nLike its counterpart, the _double top_— the  **double bottom**  works in a very similar way.\n\nThe double bottom reversal pattern appears as follows:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*0jiRJK_nfH88HpagR-Fh4Q.png)\n\nEssentially, the double bottom formation is one of the more common ones that you’ll run into as far as reversal patterns are concerned. It’s a  **_bullish chart formation_**, which means that it  _typically_  indicates that there will be a reversal from a  _downtrend_  in the price to an  _uptrend_.\n\nTo quote another authoritative source, “The double bottom pattern always follows a major or minor down trend in a particular security, and signals the reversal and the beginning of a potential uptrend. Consequently, the pattern should be validated by market fundamentals for the security itself, as well as the sector that the security belongs to, and the market in general.” — [**https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp?lgl=rira-layout**](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp?lgl=rira-layout)\n\nNote the two bottoms on the chart posted below:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*8hs7gntk32ONM9X4toCk1Q.png)\n\nAs with double tops, the bottoms do not need to hit the same value on the support. Along as they are approximately near each other, they can be considered to be ‘double bottoms’.\n\nIn order to accurately identify a chart pattern as a double bottom, a set of criteria must be met first (I adopted this criteria format from the website ([**http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_reversal**](https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_reversal)but the wording is different):\n\n1.  _Prior Trend_ — There must have been a prior  **_downward trend_**  that was present before the occurrence of the double bottom. Otherwise, the pattern cannot be deemed valid. Below example of a downward trend:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*kVAF-M28T6eakK3y8rRZiA.png)\n\n2. ‘First Bottom’ — This portion is established at the point that the price informally breaks its downtrend to ascend.\n\nSee the graphic below to get a better idea of what I mean here when I state this (picture derived from [**http://forextraininggroup.com/trade-double-top-bottom-reversal-patterns/**](http://forextraininggroup.com/trade-double-top-bottom-reversal-patterns/)):\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*c8Jz-l57WxDSnwxLM7KHtQ.png)\n\n3. Peak — This is peak price that the stock/crypto reaches after the brief informal break in the downtrend. It is represented by the ‘Double Bottom’ label on the infographic. “Most technical analysts believe that the advance of the first bottom should be 10 to 20%. The second bottom should form within 3 to 4% of the previous low, and volume on the ensuing advance should increase” ([**https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp?lgl=rira-layout**](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp?lgl=rira-layout)).\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*7I1wbTjrAxeMLwUcwY9S0w.png)\n\n4. Bottom #2 — This is defined as the point that the price returns to after hitting the ‘Double Bottom’ point. This may be the most important defining characteristic of determining whether a chart possesses a double bottom pattern or not. In order to qualify as a ‘double bottom’, the conditions in #1, #2, and #3 on the list must be met and the second bottom must be  **_approximately_**  at the same spot as the first bottom before the price begins to increase once again.\n\nIf this does not happen, then the chart pattern cannot be deemed to be a true double bottom. See the picture below:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*hH_QEaTWN6viHSb-z7C9ig.png)\n\n#### **How to Trade the Double Bottom**\n\nSimilar to the Double Top, the Double Bottom should not be traded until after the second bottom has been established and price has once again surpassed the price of the double bottom point. Check out the illustration below for a visual of what I’m talking about:\n\n![](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*h7I5ax7yLItNkPeFebPLHA.png)\n\nIf you’re someone that prefers to set a stop-loss (I’m not into it), then you should set the stop loss at the price at where the ‘Double Bottom’ label is on the chart above.",
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      "body": "Congratulations @cryptomedication! You have completed the following achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/posts.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@cryptomedication) Award for the number of posts published\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/post4day.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@cryptomedication) You published 4 posts in one day\n\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\nTo support your work, I also upvoted your post!\n\n\n> Do you like [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)? Then **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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