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      "body": "Of course I know that holding leveraged positions is risky and I thought I had a pretty large safety margin. \n\nYeah well, not good enough for a coronacrash it turned out. \n\nI´m out. No more trading for me. Time to focus on something more productive than making money with money. \n\nAlso, what last week has proven beyond doubt, are the limits of any form of analysis. It's just gambling for intelligent people. \n\nIn addition, I have trouble believing the 'Stock to Flow' model continues to hold value (although the creator says it's still valid).\n\nI will hold on to the crypto I have left and start investing small amounts every month, probably in gold and a crypto index like C20, while - as said before - focus on other interests. \n\nGoodbye\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYQqSNtzwDfZQSrRkvarGRPsu6Jh63Egxsy6BjrUZyY4M/image.png)\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmee4EhDPrUEQz7Uev9PUSWFvNd6GeJRU9KVqnQ5TKivCR/image.png)\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ4kvSSUqTa4aXxFbFZt2G4RMb6xtqrzjhEd31ntgAaU8/image.png)\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdHza3kQX8oFuCwkqqTj6fHo74CyUjmfQBazNLJpx6XPM/image.png)\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdMPaA1qd2MVwrGGpBXF4RK1uXPLCSjspxu4DpU3iSvto/image.png)",
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      "body": "![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZgptcfqbbu1tAB836rRVuptkTcHE1agDaCvZXbi4jmm2/image.png)\n\nWe are approaching the weekly parabolic support line which leads to over 100k in September 2021.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPTFhLBgkJUXjH2X7vmJXdWYBL6nqvFwaV9CS8VdJLB9v/image.png)\n\nAlso, the bitcoin market cap chart is approaching its weekly support line.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmepg34iMLhd1q79z2Ze7Leo3brKY1nY7ADxjuMHY7msE5/image.png)\n\nAnd the weekly On Balance Volume indicator is at support.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZrUVVse2YqDxR8VQjJ6xA8V6W6ZEH2L6Zj3faTVK2oB1/image.png)\n\nSo, the assumption from last week, that we're in a c-wave impuls, may still hold and will lead to a target of approximately $8300.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZMX956ANr8cpvHuT51pbdAHPLtYQomv4zLmoJ9f8YxHC/image.png)\n\nAt $8k we have the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaLbtR3nKxuVLTVr4xMyswoBuYyXSuceAAbpw67oieTFo/image.png)\n\nThe Renko chart is still looking good. Yes, there are a couple of red bricks for this correction, but the Ergodic indicator is still bullish.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmahRtt9wj2rhfTMUUAtviWYiGpsJkvQu9FB3Ptigh6r4k/image.png)\n\nIf we make a new low at 8k and a bit, there will be a textbook divergence on the MACD's.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdVM4z2HHXZcSeBGpX44VUjSdaoTBNNzjFmyedEC8kkTi/image.png)\n\nThe daily stochastics, which were very oversold last week, have retraced as expected, creating some downside potential; with, most likely, also some divergence for a new bottom. \n\nIn short, it all comes together nicely.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPNCxJqvFRMcRjAV4HEXFXzpXX4vbi8kfqwf7MkSYNnsN/image.png)\n\nHowever, when I stare at the weekly stochastics, as kalmly as possible, I see a lot more downside potential. Actually, I can see prices dropping below $6k easily. \n\nBetter not to look at that chart very often.",
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      "parent_permlink": "elliott",
      "author": "youp",
      "permlink": "trying-to-label-wave-ii-elliottwavewise",
      "title": "Trying to label Elliott wave ii",
      "body": "![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWa4gn9xcY8DH5BG6ncKrpKnkkDGwnZuzmegEYvqvzNcC/image.png)\n\n\nThe wave ii correction started a bit slow, but has been picking up steem lately.  \n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYJBAvyTcfbL3v2BwLFhsCfo3B7vAFcS881fodkoYv8y6/image.png)\n\nOn Bitfinex, today, we printed a low of $8555; which is already in our Fibonacci target area, which means it could be over already. \n\nOf course, there are other variations imaginable for this correction. For instance, like below:\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbGmf3HYutvTHH7Y8iEA6acheZQXRBNuC23pFbKpFk4bt/image.png)\n\nNot unimportant is the fact that the daily stochastics are totally oversold.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUSvPfXazd2Kb8VSb9wqkszHJfRA6cpQfLW1jxeF3v9gc/image.png)\n\nConsequently, something of countermove, at least a correction, is to be expected.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbYKoUcuLuYWymDNpfh3hYy9w7tDTQ4EGhNpHmWzhdWrX/image.png)\n\nHowever, the MACD's are nowhere near diverging which suggest another move down after this correction upwards, within wave ii down. \n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNrQPGMu2VfCYgYG84fN8Y3ryia8uUV1DoiyH1vBxUCVS/image.png)\n\nThis leads me to prefer above variation. \n\nEOD data, or in this case: end of 3 hour data, gives clearer Elliott patterns, making the count a bit easier. \nWeekly and daily chart given below to clarify this statement.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXRNbBEa7veyEsAHKQqSSApQLDmiJGSYMMTiiG5KZDk1t/image.png)\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaCABQHpKZF4q883SwPK8T5hks96svTyGzPHE2tH9T6K9/image.png)\n\nWe'll see how it turns out. I've sold my put for a small profit and will just keep increasing my futures position by dollar cost averaging as I still see us in an uptrend until summer 2021. Whether we go down a bit more or not is of little consequence.",
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      "parent_permlink": "elliott",
      "author": "youp",
      "permlink": "trying-to-label-wave-ii-elliottwavewise",
      "title": "Trying to label wave ii Elliott waves wise",
      "body": "![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWa4gn9xcY8DH5BG6ncKrpKnkkDGwnZuzmegEYvqvzNcC/image.png)\n\n\nThe wave ii correction started a bit slow, but has been picking up steem lately.  \n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYJBAvyTcfbL3v2BwLFhsCfo3B7vAFcS881fodkoYv8y6/image.png)\n\nOn Bitfinex, today, we printed a low of $8555; which is already in our Fibonacci target area, which means it could be over already. \n\nOf course, there are other variations imaginable for this correction. For instance, like below:\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbGmf3HYutvTHH7Y8iEA6acheZQXRBNuC23pFbKpFk4bt/image.png)\n\nNot unimportant is the fact that the daily stochastics are totally oversold.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUSvPfXazd2Kb8VSb9wqkszHJfRA6cpQfLW1jxeF3v9gc/image.png)\n\nConsequently, something of countermove, at least a correction, is to be expected.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbYKoUcuLuYWymDNpfh3hYy9w7tDTQ4EGhNpHmWzhdWrX/image.png)\n\nHowever, the MACD's are nowhere near diverging which suggest another move down after this correction upwards, within wave ii down. \n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNrQPGMu2VfCYgYG84fN8Y3ryia8uUV1DoiyH1vBxUCVS/image.png)\n\nThis leads me to prefer above variation. \n\nEOD data, or in this case: end of 3 hour data, gives clearer Elliott patterns, making the count a bit easier. \nWeekly and daily chart given below to clarify this statement.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXRNbBEa7veyEsAHKQqSSApQLDmiJGSYMMTiiG5KZDk1t/image.png)\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaCABQHpKZF4q883SwPK8T5hks96svTyGzPHE2tH9T6K9/image.png)\n\nWe'll see how it turns out. I've sold my put for a small profit and will just keep increasing my futures position by dollar cost averaging as I still see us in an uptrend until summer 2021. Whether we go down a bit more or not is of little consequence.",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "elliott",
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      "title": "Trying to label wave ii Elliottwavewise",
      "body": "![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWa4gn9xcY8DH5BG6ncKrpKnkkDGwnZuzmegEYvqvzNcC/image.png)\n\n\nThe wave ii correction started a bit slow, but has been picking up steem lately.  \n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYJBAvyTcfbL3v2BwLFhsCfo3B7vAFcS881fodkoYv8y6/image.png)\n\nOn Bitfinex, today, we printed a low of $8555; which is already in our Fibonacci target area, which means it could be over already. \n\nOf course, there are other variations imaginable for this correction. For instance, like below:\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbGmf3HYutvTHH7Y8iEA6acheZQXRBNuC23pFbKpFk4bt/image.png)\n\nNot unimportant is the fact that the daily stochastics are totally oversold.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUSvPfXazd2Kb8VSb9wqkszHJfRA6cpQfLW1jxeF3v9gc/image.png)\n\nConsequently, something of countermove, at least a correction, is to be expected.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbYKoUcuLuYWymDNpfh3hYy9w7tDTQ4EGhNpHmWzhdWrX/image.png)\n\nHowever, the MACD's are nowhere near diverging which suggest another move down after this correction upwards, within wave ii down. \n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNrQPGMu2VfCYgYG84fN8Y3ryia8uUV1DoiyH1vBxUCVS/image.png)\n\nThis leads me to prefer above variation. \n\nEOD data, or in this case: end of 3 hour data, gives clearer Elliott patterns, making the count a bit easier. \nWeekly and daily chart given below to clarify this statement.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXRNbBEa7veyEsAHKQqSSApQLDmiJGSYMMTiiG5KZDk1t/image.png)\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaCABQHpKZF4q883SwPK8T5hks96svTyGzPHE2tH9T6K9/image.png)\n\nWe'll see how it turns out. I've sold my put for a small profit and will just keep increasing my futures position by dollar cost averaging as I still see us in an uptrend until summer 2021. Whether we go down a bit more or not is of little consequence.",
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