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      "body": "Congratulations @voluntarymess! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@voluntarymess/birthday3.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 3 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@voluntarymess) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=voluntarymess)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "Recently the cryptocurrency company “Bitmain” has been making news for its upcoming Initial Public Offering (IPO) in order to transition the company from private ownership to a publicly owned and traded company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This is scheduled to occur in either Q4 of ’18 or Q1 of ’19 and if the wheels stay on the wagon (which we’ll get into in a second) some are estimating that Bitmain could raise more capital during this offering than Visa ($18B) and Facebook ($16B). The number to beat if they want to take gold in the global IPO game would be Alibaba’s offering almost exactly 4 years ago in Q3 of 2014, coming in at $25B.\n\nLet’s take a second to describe exactly what Bitmain does in the cryptocurrency space without getting too far into the weeds.\n\nBitmain brings in the vast majority of its profit in two ways: mining and Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (“ASIC” for short) sales, with a heavy focus on catering to the bitcoin hashing algorithm. This article will only focus on the relationship between Bitmain and Bitcoin (and also Bitcoin Cash, but let’s hold off on that for a second).\n\n![s-l300.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUx7rvyVkiraeFgYNdGa9ztd9GrvqGYFANe2YHnjbPiYc/s-l300.jpg)\n\nFor the moment, let’s just focus on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a protocol and digital currency that uses competing and cooperating incentive structures to maintain the value of its underlying currency “Bitcoin” and also prevent fraud, keeping accurate track of who owns each coin in a public ledger without relying on a centralized authority. It’s an abstract concept for beginners so I’m going to keep it light. For the moment, just imagine that it’s digital gold. New gold can’t come into the marketplace without first being “mined” from the earth. This, in some sense, gives it value since consumers understand that a large quantity of “work” must go into gold extraction. And so, they’re protected from monetary inflation (read: devaluation of their savings) by the sheer fact that gold is really fucking hard to move from the earth to the market. It can’t just happen overnight, so they perceive that their gold holdings will retain value in the future.\n\nBitcoin operates in the same manner. Bitcoins must be “mined” using brute-force guess work by computers that involves powerful machines and lots of electricity. The miners take all of the recent transactions by users of the bitcoin protocol, put them into a cardboard box, and place that box next to the previous cardboard box. This happens every 10 minutes. Every 10 minutes a bunch of miners around the world toss a shitload of clothes into a box and place it next to the last cardboard box filled with a shitload of clothes. And for this, they’re rewarded. Everyone KNOWS who owns that fucked up mauve v-neck that Chuck’s Aunt gave him on June 6th of 2013 because we can check all the boxes between June 6th of 2013 and August 13th of 2018. Each box represents the ownership during that 10-minute period of time. You can actually trace that V-neck from the Target SuperStore, to Aunt Becky’s house, to Chuck, to Goodwill, to the homeless shelter at 8th and Park Ave. You just look in each of the boxes that are in a line filled with clothes. Replace the word “box” with “block,” the word “line” with “chain,” and pretend the clothes are transactions. Boom — now you’re cooking with gas.\n\nSo. Miners are rewarded for moving boxes of clothes. Or, if you prefer: “confirming transactions” between bitcoin users. Back in the day, say pre-2013, you could successfully mine Bitcoin with a gaming computer. The good old days. This was arguably the original intent of the bitcoin protocol, to be supported by a bunch of very decentralized ‘small-time’ miners, never concentrating power in one person or entity’s hands. This is a product of the cypherpunks after all isn’t it?\n\nAs time went on people began to realize that they could make chips that were specifically built to solve the puzzles of underlying cryptography used to secure bitcoin, ASICs. Bitmain was one of the pioneers in this field selling their brand of ASIC, the Antminer, and founding large mining pools, Antpool & BTC.com among others, to consolidate mining power. Moving boxes is always easier with friends right? Well Bitmain bought a keg and the bro’s are all revved up about Vinny’s new place. They’re here to crush Natty and move shit.\n\nNow, there’s a very interesting question that rears its head when a single entity has most of the muscle, most of the mining power. Say Vinny has been absolutely crushing leg day. Guy’s an absolute monster; bulging everywhere it’s like a physical manifestation of the movie Tremors. He can get a box of clothes in line and then sprint back to grab the next one before Rocky and Skylar can. What’s to prevent him, if he has the majority (51%) of the muscle, from taking those boxes right out the fucking door and to his bachelor pad down on 10th Street? The answer? Nothing. So we want to make sure that we can keep Rocky and Skylar in the gym OR cut Vinny off from the steroids (ASICS) to ensure proper distribution of muscle outside of Vin’s absolutely ridonculous quads.\n\nBut, Vinny would have every incentive to keep manhandling iron and mainlining roids to attempt to control as much of the network as possible. As he likes to shout through a mouthfull of cheap foamy lager: “Vinny is my name and crushing cardboard is my game!” This is for several reasons, the first of which is immediate profit from moving the most boxes. But, there are some network governance implications involved as well. You see, the way the incentive structure of bitcoin works, everyone involved in the actual framework of the network is slightly at odds with each other within the greater context of being on the same team to preserve a sustainable protocol that won’t tank and kill everyone’s profit, savings, and children. So the miners will want to gain power in order to ensure the direction of bitcoin’s development favors them as much as possible. Node operators the same. Users the same. Some of this influence is ‘soft’ and some of it is more concrete. But ultimately this is all balanced by the fact that we’re on the same ship and we don’t want to put too much weight in one spot or it could topple and then we’ve got a USS Indy situation on our hands which totally blows.\n\nSo this is the pretext for the last year and a half (more, really) of the bitcoin saga. For a long time there have been massive power struggles circling just beneath the surface like angsty reef sharks with the musky scent of seamen on their nose.\n\nBitmain never quite succeeded in getting majority control over the mining network but has come really damn close. As of June, Bitmain pools owned about 42% of the hashing (muscle) power securing the bitcoin network. So, what happens when enough people dislike the state of the protocol but don’t have majority control over the network? In cryptocurrency, they can initiate a “fork” and create their own rules on a separate line of cardboard boxes stemming from original. Maybe they were frustrated with the color of the cardboard and starting on 180th box, they fork off and begin packing clothes into pink boxes. Well this is exactly what happened. There was a tremendous amount of animosity developing between the brown-boxers and the pink-boxers within the community. And so, the pink-boxers went their own way and created a new line of boxes called “Bitcoin Cash,” as opposed to the original “Bitcoin.” (Unfortunately Bitcoin did not take this opportunity to rebrand as “GnarlyCoin” despite vigorous protest from yours truly). There’s a bottomless pit of technical shit and in-community hand-slapping that we could dive into but I’m exhausted after the last year of it, so I’ll let you take the onus if you’re curious. Long story short, a new coin was created, spearheaded by a number of prominent members in the bitcoin community including Roger Ver, Craig Wright, and the head-honcho at Bitmain — Jihan Wu. If you’ve been around bitcoin for any length of time you will likely recognize these guys. If not… well let’s just say there’s a lot of intense feelings about all of them. Some love them, some hate them — and if the last month is any indication, they all hate each other.\n\nWhat happens to the users of Bitcoin when the chain forks? Well, you hit pay dirt. You get both coins in your wallet! So now everyone who had 2 bitcoins in their wallet before the fork, now has both 2 Bitcoins AND 2 Bitcoin Cash in their wallet.\n\nSo in the ensuing months, users needed to decide which coin and protocol they were going to commit too. Or, alternatively they could use and hold both. There’s nothing preventing you from hedging your bets. But hedging’s for pussies right? 100x or gtfo.\n\nSo there were a number of hardcore bitcoin guys who sold their Bitcoin Cash assets for more Bitcoin, and there were a number of bitcoin cash guys who liquidated their Bitcoin for Bitcoin Cash. And then there were a few in between. Maybe far more interestingly, Bitmain and entities within their sphere of influence were left with both coins. Money talks and bullshit walks, right? So what have the power players with a shitload of coin on the line been doing?\n\nOne distinct attribute of a public blockchain is the ability to track transactions from wallet to wallet. You can’t necessarily know who owns the wallet, but you can make educated guesses based on activity and quantity. And as Bitmain has been a privately owned entity, a Chinese one at that, they’re shrouded in a bit of mystery. However, since the IPO paperwork has been processing, we’ve been finding out some interesting details during public disclosure — some of which was already suspected but unconfirmed.\n\nAnd as it turns out, over the course of the last year they have been forced to cover their position by purchasing Bitcoin Cash on the open market with their remaining Bitcoin and the Bitcoin coming in from their mining operations. (Remember, they have staked much of their future success on the success of bitcoin cash). This is, ostensibly, in order to provide market liquidity and also prop up the price of Bitcoin Cash. From a purely financial perspective this seems ludicrous — take a look at the BCH/BTC chart and you would wonder why a company would decide to lose money. But it was likely part of a long play to gain market dominance for bitcoin cash, perceived to be a much more miner-friendly protocol in the long run — short term pain for long term gain. Additionally, they are a privately held firm in what is basically a black market; they don’t really have to answer to anyone. Really interesting stuff honestly from a business angle.\n\nHowever, all of that changes with an IPO. I’m not well versed with Chinese fiduciary responsibility laws but I would suspect they somewhat reflect the posturing of those in the US: broadly speaking they must act in a way that maximizes shareholder profit. The letter of the law is to reduce fuckery by the officers of a company who may have nefarious or counter-productive interests in mind and are just using a corporation (read: other people’s money) as a vehicle to satisfy those ends.\n\nLet’s back up a second and return to the state of Bitmain right now. They are the biggest player in the ASIC market and have the most powerful mining pools in their back pocket. BUT they might be sitting on a bunch (like… ALOT) of soon-to-be worthless coins that they traded appreciating coins for in order to continue a ruse, a so-far failed power-play attempting to ensure that the network stayed favorable to them going forward. So they’ve built a house on a rotten foundation. What’s the next move?\n\nExit.\n\nThey’re stuck right now. They can’t sell the Bitcoin Cash — the market is nowhere liquid enough. If they sold even a fraction of what they had the price would absolutely tank. There just isn’t a thick enough buy-side on the order book. Additionally, if they sell the Bitcoin Cash it’s a tacit admission that this whole episode was a failed power play, and quite possibly fraudulent. Remember that transactions on the blockchain are public and transparent. The Bitmain wallet addresses are being closely watched and they can’t really dump their coins on the sly. They’re a mining operation but they also sell products to consumers, many of whom are ardent libertarians who would see fraud as a moral gaffe, not just a business one.\n\nTo add fuel to the fire, the positions taken publicly by Jihan and Bitmain are quite inflammatory and leave little room for a graceful exit. If I were on the PR squad there I would be sweating bullets and hoping not to have to craft a position that pivoted away from bitcoin cash and back to bitcoin. Crazier things have certainly happened in this space, but that one would be incredibly difficult. Think of the split between bitcoin and bitcoin cash somewhat like the Great Schism — there was a lot of bullshit going on beforehand, but this is the big kahuna. There’s really no going back; the wells are completely poisoned.\n\nAt this point, it would seem that most of the Bitmain team has likely said ‘damn the torpedoes’ and is trying to get out any way they can. Yes, they have a lot of money — but they also have a lot of money to lose. Someone like Jihan doesn’t like to lose.\n\nAnd I’m not necessarily talking about an exit from fiscal loss. As previously mentioned, the PR pivot is going to be far more difficult than the technical pivot back to bitcoin. People are going to need to eat their own dick (ask John Mcafee) in a public forum and nobody’s quite prepared to do that. It would be far easier to pin a shift away from bitcoin cash onto investors than it would be to take that head on. “Hey we got bought and the investors would like to show more solidarity toward bitcoin instead of bitcoin cash.” Some public hand-wringing from Jihan would complete the package and there would certainly be some other scam the next day to take the news cycle away from Bitmain. This is crypto after all.\n\nSo how do you escape a house with a rotten foundation without losing money? Sell it to someone who doesn’t understand what a rotten foundation looks like. Or to be more specific, a group of someones who don’t know what a rotten foundation looks like. Shit, they don’t even know what a good foundation looks like. Most of them don’t even know what the foundation is or does. I’m speaking of course of the public. The “P” in the IPO.\n\nBitmain could be about to engineer the most fascinating exit scam of the cryptocurrency era. If so, they are actually going to move FROM the black market TO the regulated market in an attempt to dump on their investors and save face. The 7 figures of bitcoin cash coins, at time of writing worth $575 apiece, will be transferred as a company asset to the public investors.\n\nEnter the “Chad Hail Mary”\n\nThe far scarier scenario is that this is another chapter in their power play to keep the dominant cryptocurrency miner-friendly and under Bitmain’s control. They could be aiming to gain majority hash power of the bitcoin AND bitcoin cash networks. I don’t care which protocol/coin you favor, this is truly terrifying. One entity controlling the mining power of a single protocol is no bueno. This would be a very dynamic scenario and it’s not just as easy as purchasing the remaining 9% of computing power (especially as a public company with a board of directors to answer to), so my intent is not to over-simplify and disregard the difficulty of doing this. But, I’d like to bring attention to the fact that Bitmain is about to hit a major windfall and they don’t exactly like the competition to bitcoin cash that bitcoin brings. Their goal is to have as much influence as possible over whatever the dominant cryptocurrency is. With that influence, they can exert control over the protocol and ensure that the network’s features funnel as much money to Bitmain as possible.\n\nIf Bitmain doesn’t like a particular currency (say, Bitcoin) they could stage a 51% attack on the underlying network, levying a huge blow and quite likely destroying the faith in the protocol — ending it as a competitor. And remember, Bitmain has been dumping Bitcoin in favor of Bitcoin Cash which seems like an idiotic move at first blush, but now they have absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain by crushing the bitcoin network. They’ve already emptied the coffers of almost all of their Bitcoins and therefore would not care if the currency went to zero. According to most reports, Bitmain is sitting on approximately 22,000 Bitcoins — hardly a farthing compared to their million+ Bitcoin Cash reserves.\n\nSo now, if you’re following along, there’s an eye of the needle that Bitmain could be aiming for. They could be trying to slowly sell their remaining Bitcoin on the open market, propping up the price of Bitcoin Cash for the next 6–8 months until the IPO goes through, at which point they would have an ass-load of money to use for more mining rigs. As they begin to increase their mining power over the following few months we will begin to approach the ‘halving’ of bitcoin in 2020, a 1/2 reduction in the block reward for miners, which for technical reasons outside of the scope of this article is perceived to be a period of weakness where it could be advantageous to attack the bitcoin network. There’s a fair amount of damage Bitmain could do right now with so much control over the mining side of the bitcoin network, but the timing isn’t right yet. As we move close to the block reward halving and Bitmain slowly and strategically liquidates all of its Bitcoin holdings and has a fresh war chest to work with from the IPO, the timing of the final power move becomes a bit more clear. They would have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The “flippening” (reversal in market dominance from Bitcoin to Bitcoin Cash) would flood the coffers with 10x more capital to work with and Jihan & Co. would make out like fat-cat bankers from the days of yore. There’s a million moving parts, but it could be what they’re aiming for.\n\nAnd I may be wrong about all of this; I certainly have nothing to lose or gain in either case — at the end of the day, I’m just a lowly civil engineer and cryptid enthusiast with a penchant for cryptocurrency and cheap lager.\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\n\nIf you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD\n\nIf you're interested in BTC themed merchandise - check out Liberty Mugs, awesome folks running it with great products:\nhttps://www.libertymugs.com/product-category/bitcoin/?ref=Car\n\nGreat podcast with excellent breakdown of complex bitcoin stuff.\nhttps://cryptoconomy.podbean.com/\n\nBTC: 34DsCV6m9cHez73nYDzVUk6D82yiqhKrWg",
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      "body": "I think it was Parabolic Trav that was referencing the market's tendency to follow the \"path of maximum frustration\" during the run-up in November and December. He may well have been passing that information on from somewhere else, but either way I really like the mantra.\n\nBitcoin has seen quite a relief rally today, closing around 250 points higher than open. This is the first convincing green daily candle we've seen in almost two weeks. The price is currently hovering in the 6520 area and hasn't moved much from the closing of yesterday's daily candle (2 hours ago) during a time when Asia tends to be waking up and North America going to sleep.\n\nWith respect to the \"path of maximum frustration,\" I think it's an important idea to keep in mind. Even if this is the turning point and bulls have turned this train around - always be wary. Create multiple charts with multiple scenarios varying from \"most bullish\" to \"most bearish\" to keep an even keel. \n\nIn this scenario, the most bullish possible outcome for the next week would be a convincing break of 6800 (neckline of the inverse head & shoulders pattern from June/July) with a subsequent throw-back to confirm it as a level of support. In the following weeks, price would need to move through several areas of resistance and ultimately close a candle above 8506 to put in a higher high, besting the upper wick from July 24. If this occurs, we may just escape the dregs of a truly disastrous-seeming sell-off to mark the bottom; the end of the bear run. But this would be too easy - not very frustrating at all. And that's not the way markets work, certainly not bitcoin.\n\n![2018-08-09 921pm BTC (bullish).png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTeeeZQXGUpbGybpCHToKx1bgsEeMUtBZ8KXsXDdB8pcn/2018-08-09%20921pm%20BTC%20(bullish).png)\n\nI've discussed my most bearish scenario in prior articles, but the chart is here again for reference. Because my analysis of the '13 cycle has been successful when applied to this one, I'm sticking to my guns here. August 8th's green candle is a flash in the pan and price will soon return to the 6180 level to re-test support. Upon re-test, price will break through and coast down to ~5500 where it will find support from the falling wedge and the 786 fib retracement level from the bull run. Many traders and investors will sense that this is a bargain, (and long term it certainly is) jumping in as the price moves up to the previous level of support at 6180. \n\nNow. Here's where I think it could get ugly for a few weeks. First, that 6180 level was a fairly strong level of support, and now consequently will be a strong level of resistance. If the price begins to teeter, I think that's going to spook most of the folks who jumped in at 5500 who will see an opportunity to grab a quick $500 and bail. Another thing to consider is the number of people who bought into bitcoin at the price of 6180 and lower. It's ALOT. Bitcoin has spent less than 9 total months of its lifetime above 6180, and only about 1.5 of those months were in a bull market drawing people in. What new-to-crypto buyers are coming in after the December bust? What new buyers COULD come in? The exchanges had essentially melted down. \n\n![2018-08-09 921pm BTC (bearish).png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSSQWwSrWMiULDZsR3Sxpem6wg1rNESGFeSwFLcpS2nmF/2018-08-09%20921pm%20BTC%20(bearish).png)\n\nAdditionally, we need to consider the number of people who have been \"dollar cost averaging\" into bitcoin. When did they start hearing about bitcoin? About a year and a half ago during alt spring when crypto was going ballistic? OK, so let's take a look at the 550 day (about a year and a half) moving average to get an idea of where there investment is at... 6091.70 at time of writing. So there are a bunch of folks out there who have been convinced by the financial aspect (and I agree with them long term), but maybe not drawn in enough to understand the fundamental strengths of bitcoin and cryptocurrency, or market cycles. Now their lump investment coming from each paycheck for the last year and a half is underwater. What would you do? Sell and cover your ass so your wife doesn't beat you with the keyboard.\n\nIf you go back two years to August of 2016 and set the moving average at 730, the current price is 4770.6 at time of writing. 2016 was a big year for bitcoin and certainly attracted people. Another item to note from 2016 is that it was notably devoid of big \"busts\" with the exception of a relatively small crash, spookily enough, around this time of year. Folks who started passive investing in 2016 didn't really get accustomed to the true volatility that happened in the surrounding years. They're going to see the price crossing the psychological level of 5000, approaching their average and have a meltdown. If 5k is breached, 3500 will be very shortly after. \n\nIt's been awhile since we've really seen those gut-wrenching stories (think bitconnect) crop up on reddit and twitter about money lost investing in bitcoin. It can, and will, happen again. This time it will be for what the market perceived as 'strong hands' since they have been passively investing and never, or rarely, selling any stake. This will be capitulation and will be the final drop from 6180 into the 3500 zone. Maximum frustration indeed.\n\nThere's a possibility in my mind that the knife is caught closer to 5000, but as with all capitulation bottoms the price action will be brief but intense. If it looks like this scenario has a shot to play out, I'll be setting bids down there as well as a few in the 5000 region. I'll also be setting an outrageous 100x bid on bitmex at 2k, just in case. Think btc-e flash crash in '14.\n\nIn the end, every day is new with new information printed out in the candles. And thank god for that. I'll be aiming to bring a mostly-daily update and if the markets get wild maybe two per day. Stay tuned and please feel free to reach out if there's anything you would like me to comment on or write about.\n\nThanks guys and stay safu.\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nIf you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD\n\nIf you're interested in BTC themed merchandise - check out Liberty Mugs, awesome folks running it with great products:\nhttps://www.libertymugs.com/product-category/bitcoin/?ref=Car\n\nGreat podcast with excellent breakdown of complex bitcoin stuff.\nhttps://cryptoconomy.podbean.com/\n\nBTC: 34DsCV6m9cHez73nYDzVUk6D82yiqhKrWg",
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      "body": "Another day, another dodge-ler. Bitcoin dodges hidden bullish divergence confirmation on the daily timeframe yet again as the bears continue to drive the price down. Remember that prior to confirmation, the swing low will need to confirm with a subsequent candle who's wick and body remain above the daily low. We have had 10 straight candles with the wick and/or body lower than the prior day, with today's candle looking to make it 11. \n\nIf this leg down continues to 5750, then the macro bear market is confirmed as it will put in a lower low than the last wave down in June. If you have been reading my articles, I firmly believe the bear market is still on and have been trading accordingly. \n\nSo far, I see no reason to change up the trading plan - I fully anticipate price markdown to the 5500 area followed by a weak relief bounce to ~6080. There is a chance that the bounce could actually use the 6080 level as support and bounce to the top of the falling wedge around 6650, so that is something to watch out for when we get near the 6080 handle in the next few days. \n\n![2018-08-08 915am BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdjRMSJV1X3k3QHD9LQoZ5XNwzoid2jJbJPHvSstrNjsw/2018-08-08%20915am%20BTC.png)\n\nAs I've said, I believe the bottom for this market cycle is in the 3500 range which will likely happen in an extremely high volume, short-lived bonanza - a capitulation bottom. As we get closer to this level, it's probably not the worst idea to start hedging bets and putting in bids at higher support zones just in case the 3500 target doesn't hit. The 5750 area is a great place to grab some to sleep easy at night. Remember that TA is a bit dicey and although I'm quite confident 3500 will be the bottom, there are other zones above it that may act as heavy enough resistance to hold bitcoin up, for instance the 4800 area. As traders the goal is to buy low and sell high, but don't get too greedy and miss out.\n\nAnd remember that if you're buying at 4800, it means someone is selling at 4800. That person will be deeply regretful. Bitcoin needs to change hands to the most responsible parties who will hold and cherish it. Those who give up on the way down don't deserve the glory around the corner in 2019. It's a common mantra, but use the bear market to hone your trading skills or read more about the technical aspects of the bitcoin protocol. There's nothing else to do from a trading/investment standpoint so you may as well make the time worth it and invest in yourself, invest in more knowledge.\n\nAlso, if you're not at least running a full node, strongly consider it. Running a node secures your transactions, helps support and decentralize the network, and gives you a stake in the governance of the overall bitcoin protocol. It's also fascinating to know that you have every single bitcoin transaction since the genesis block stored on your computer. You have the entire history of free banking in your possession and every 10 minutes you are helping add to it. It's incredibly simple, just go to bitcoin.org then download and sync the wallet! Currently there are 9,341 full nodes. That's quite a few, but it's still thin air. Be number 9,342 and support free banking.\n\nIt seems like I've gained a bunch of new readers recently, so for all new guys/gals please feel free to reach out if you would like me to cover anything specifically. If you would like a more 'beginner friendly' explanation for something, just ask! I'll try to explain what I can in the platform of a short article. \n\nBelow are some folks/products that I really like and if you use the links it kicks something back to me, so if you like what I'm writing please check them out!\n\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nIf you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD\n\nIf you're interested in BTC themed merchandise - check out Liberty Mugs, awesome folks running it with great products:\nhttps://www.libertymugs.com/product-category/bitcoin/?ref=Car\n\nGreat podcast with excellent breakdown of complex bitcoin stuff.\nhttps://cryptoconomy.podbean.com/\n\n![mockup-aab388f0 (1).jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPMwXBts9vrLp3MPZErdd6bdKztkheiAC3HATQhqiaSiF/mockup-aab388f0%20(1).jpg)\n\nBTC: 34DsCV6m9cHez73nYDzVUk6D82yiqhKrWg",
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      "body": "Alright hear me out. \n\nThis is a bit outrageous, but I think we may have just put in really sloppy head & shoulders pattern starting July 17 with the breakout from the neckline occurring just  now.\n\n![2018-08-07 424pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXNS5Ua79WhFiHeXFCoMMgTs44kRPkAhJmSgiSaCJy8Ne/2018-08-07%20424pm%20BTC.png)\n\nThis would roughly jive with earlier analysis calling for a downward leg from 8500 to 5625 to the bottom of the falling wedge and 786 fib retracement level. I'm short. I'm staying short. \n\nAlso this article will remain short. I have kickball playoffs to attend.\n\nCheers guys, stay safu.\n\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\n\nIf you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD\n\nBTC: 34DsCV6m9cHez73nYDzVUk6D82yiqhKrWg",
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Happy Tuesday gang.\n\nFor those that read Sunday's article, we have a potential bullish divergence between the price of bitcoin and the stochastic indicator. As expected, it did not technically confirm on Monday due to the formation of a new low. However, in early trading today it looks nearly inevitable that yesterday's low will confirm. Bitcoin rallied almost 300 points overnight to re-test the resistance at 7150. So far the re-test has failed but as this article is being written, it looks like it's having another go at it.  \n\n![2018-08-07 1051am BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdpd5xfNfEvLztto8Sjx2VXgcQUi93JScNDCWfmUPrgfh/2018-08-07%201051am%20BTC.png)\n\nLooking at the hourly chart shows a much more bearish pattern forming with a double top and also slight bearish divergence between price and stochastic oscillator. The next 24 hours will be very telling in the future direction of the price of bitcoin. A confident break above 7150 would invalidate the bearish divergence and double top, lending credence to the bullish divergence on the daily chart. This could give traders confidence to hop in long and pump the price up. Sometimes it feels like we're just a few busted technicals away from the next bull run. On the contrary, if the 7150 resistance holds and bitcoin plunges past 6850, then the bullish divergence would still not validate since a new low would be made. \n\n![2018-08-07 1053am BTC hourly.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYY3aJt6rXNkACht87439RjdKuNB988dsaJ3UutmXdKfg/2018-08-07%201053am%20BTC%20hourly.png)\n\nIt's worth noting that the '13 market cycle saw many invalidated bullish divergences on the bear run after the market top. Typically the oscillators are more handy in choppy markets and may give false signals when big moves are beginning, or if the market is in a strong trend. It's best to stick to price action or use the oscillators on smaller time frames for entry/exit in these conditions. \n\nAs I've stated in previous articles, I believe we'll put in a bottom sometime in September with the bull run kicking off sometime in October or November. To do so, there may need to be a catalyst. One thing to keep an eye on is the Bitcoin Cash hard fork which is scheduled for November 15. If this goes through (as it seems it will), there may be some folks jumping ship, as there have been at each previous hard fork. Bitcoin Cash occupies a not-insignificant portion of the total cryptocurrency market which, if absorbed by BTC, could serve as a boost.  Just speculation.\n\nStay safu, fam.\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nIf you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD\n\nBTC: 34DsCV6m9cHez73nYDzVUk6D82yiqhKrWg",
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      "body": "Alright guys, this is a quick one.\n\nAs you know, I believe for a number of reasons that the we will put in a bottom at the 3500 level. I'm very open to the fact that I could be wrong, and that bottom could be at one of the other support zones between the current price of 7000 and my target of 3500. However, we are still on track per my analysis several weeks ago and until I see conclusive evidence to the contrary, I'm sticking to my guns and will trade as if the bear trend is on.\n\nIn doing so, my routine now consists of trying to prove my theory wrong. If it's right, no further action is required - I will keep my short order open and continue to ride. If it's wrong, then I'll cover and go long.\n\nWhat I'm watching for in the immediate future is a reversal of the leg down beginning with the swing high (on the daily chart) from July 24 at 8506. According to my prior analysis, this leg should continue to push further down to the 5600 zone followed by a small relief rally and then the final plunge. However, if the bulls can take over and push the price action out of the falling-wedge, breaking through the resistance at 7700, it could provide strong evidence that the bear trend is over. \n\nThe Sunday candle is coming to a close and unless there are some last-second theatrics, it looks like it will close as a doji, indicating a possible trend reversal. The volume isn't particularly high on the Sunday candle, but it has been increasing through the last week. Bitmex broke a single-day volume record earlier in the week and then broke it again a few days later. \n\n![2018-08-05 653pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNSoFK1w61AbCqD4gw3nJLb2tWCieNh6hM8rJ4TEMKgQ9/2018-08-05%20653pm%20BTC.png)\n\nAdditionally, if Monday's candle closes above Sunday's then there is a very good chance we will see hidden bullish divergence forming between price and stoch.  As we all know painfully well, Monday's tend to be bloody so I'm skeptical the divergence will confirm, but it's certainly on my radar.\n\nSet your price alarms tonight, could be a big move incoming. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to reach out to me or leave a comment! And if you find any of this analysis helpful, see below.\n\nStay safu, fam.\n\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nIf you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD\n\nBTC: 34DsCV6m9cHez73nYDzVUk6D82yiqhKrWg",
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      "body": "More blood is my bet. \n\nAmidst a slew of ostensibly bullish signals on the fundamentals side including the announcement of physically-settled daily bitcoin futures contracts operated by the Intercontinental Exchange (owner of the NYSE) as well as announcements by Microsoft and Starbucks that they will be moving toward the acceptance of the cryptocurrency, the technicals still look lousy.\n\nA quick stroll through cryptotwitter this morning yielded a bit more bearish sentiment than it has the last few weeks. Sicarius issuing a series of \"how to survive bear markets\" tweets and CryptoMessiah calling for a bit more blood as well.\n\nMy job - and your job - is to stay indifferent and analyze data as it comes in. However, my 'bias' is with the bears due the comparison of the '13 fractal to this one, technical analysis of the daily chart, and the more nebulous idea that there will be an attempt by institutional 'smart' money to drive price down to load their bags. \n\nThe good news is that I think we're going to put in the bottom soon and the next bull run will be a doozy. Until then, if you're so inclined, there is ample opportunity to increase your allotment of bitcoin (and preserve the USD value of your trading account) if you know where we're at in the market cycle. \n\n![2018-08-03 1215pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmT3A3Fm8RjruQZmeL7XhDVTrHeRq8wdbUAEsr3zYy4NHz/2018-08-03%201215pm%20BTC.png)\n\nAs I've written before, I believe we're destined to bottom in the 3500 area, 3646.10 to be exact. If you would like to see some reasoning for why I believe this, refer back to my article from a few weeks ago for an explanation of the analysis and conclusion.\n\nhttps://steemit.com/bitcoin/@voluntarymess/btc-big-picture-friday-2013-and-now \n\nIn the short-to-mid term I believe that bears will drive price down to the 6750 handle which, from a technical standpoint, is the first consolidation zone from bitcoin's upward break out of an inverse head & shoulders reversal pattern several weeks ago. That will be the next data point to re-consider the market direction. If we dive down from there, that would be fairly strong confirmation that the bear market is intact. If there is a strong bounce and a successful upward break on a re-test of the 7500 zone, that may indicate that the macro trend has reversed. \n\nOn a shorter time-frame, bitcoin is right now testing overhead resistance at the 7500 level which has acted as support/resistance since the first test on July 17th. I don't think bulls have the strength to break through and the failure of this test will be the catalyst for a break downward to 6750. Bitcoin is certainly doing a great job of keeping the cards face-down, I would have expected a more clear answer to have emerged by now. Instead, we continue to chop. Don't get eaten up in the chop.\n\nStay safu, fam. \n\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nIf you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD\n\nBTC: 34DsCV6m9cHez73nYDzVUk6D82yiqhKrWg",
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      "permlink": "bitcoin-reversal-or-more-blood",
      "title": "Bitcoin reversal or more blood?"
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  "timestamp": "2018-08-03T17:34:06",
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Welcome to August. Bears/Ravens kick off the NFL preseason tomorrow night with the annual Hall of Fame game and thank god football is back.\n\nLet's first take a look at the daily chart that I've been showing with a falling wedge formation and the fib levels from the run-up of the '17 market cycle. Things are so far going exactly according to plan, which frankly makes me a bit nervous. There's almost always a new wrinkle to throw traders off, but if you refer back to my big fractal comparison, we appear to be right on track per the '13 cycle. \n\nhttps://steemit.com/bitcoin/@voluntarymess/btc-big-picture-friday-2013-and-now\n\nPrice action rose up temporarily out of the wedge, tapped the 618 fib level, and is now diving back into the wedge where - if history rhymes - it will drop to the 786 fib level and possibly dive down to a historic level of resistance/support. It's possible this level is either around 4800 or down to 3500. I can't imagine the price dropping to the next level of support below 3500... people would be pulling HELOCs to get in. \n\n![2018-08-01 751am BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ3CyvEc45B6THVcnSYg8M2VmEpdbfBm64fePYGGPVwGx/2018-08-01%20751am%20BTC.png)\n\nOK. If we work with the assumption that this is still very much a bear market, then we need to trade with that in mind. Per yesterday's article, if you're trading with leverage on Bitmex or another similar platform with perpetual futures contracts, longs are still paying shorts. This could indicate that the crowd still believes this is a bull market, that the bottom has been put in and bitcoin is ready to embark on the next rally. I think not.\n\nOn the daily chart I've highlighted a \"Key Area\" which is shown below on the hourly. This chart shows bitcoin jumping up out of the trend line of the wedge, and just recently coming back under it. If price action behaves as it has been behaving, there will likely be some chop through today and then look for a possible drop down to the previous level of resistance where bitcoin broke the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern two weeks ago. A great short-term target would be the 6750 zone, if there are no warning signs that the bear market has ended. If however, the price leaps out of the wedge again, it would be wise to reconsider where we are at in the market cycle. I'll certainly post an update if we close a few candles on the up-side of the wedge trend line. \n\n![2018-08-01 759am BTC (1hr).png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ2oktPq67Dz7e7NArHA3oSM31QhyBbeXZadFEdRSwMDD/2018-08-01%20759am%20BTC%20(1hr).png)\n\nI will be looking for entries to short, but keeping my head on a swivel for signs of a trend reversal. My bias will be with the bears but profit is the goal - if the bulls take over, consider me converted. \n\nAs always, stay safe fam. \n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nIf you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
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      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "permlink": "all-according-to-plan-for-bitcoin",
      "title": "All according to plan for bitcoin"
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Tuesday bluesday.\n\nBetting against the crowd can have some distinct advantages. Most of crypto twitter is desperate for the reversal of this bear trend, to get back on the road to 33k or 50k, whatever the new target may be. I ultimately think we're headed there (and beyond) but in the meantime unless you're a dedicated hodler, you're going to suffer death by 1000 cuts getting shaken out in the chop if you're not careful.\n\nIf you're trading on Bitmex, the structure of their contracts forces traders occupying the more \"popular\" position (either long or short) to pay a funding rate every 8 hours to traders occupying the less popular position. This is a clever way to avoid expiry on long/short contract positions. The funding rate is a method to tie the contract price closely to the price of bitcoin from which the value of the contract is derived. If traders begin straying away from the underlying price of bitcoin, the funding rate will increase, drawing traders back to the true value. \n\nIf you have been following along on my recent trading, you see that I'm still (cautiously) bearish. Watching the funding rate on bitmex, it appears that the bulk of traders are not - the funding has been positive for the bulk of the last 2 weeks. This means for all of the short positions, longs have been paying shorts a percentage of their position every 8 hours. It's not much, but if you're confident in market direction it can add a bit of icing on the cake getting paid by the people who bet against you before closing your position.\n\nIf you have read \"Reminiscences of a Stock Operator\" you'll recall the author's lesson on Union Pacific shares. He took a tip, listened to the crowd and against his gut instinct took the other side of the trade. He lost money.\n\nFor two weeks I've been against the crowd, but it's looking like that's been the correct move. Getting paid for it with the funding rate is great too!\n\nWe're now at a big decision point as price is headed for 7650, the approximate zone of the trend line from the multi-month falling wedge. It's either a bounce, with the bottom put in... or the 2013 fractal is still intact and we get some cheeeeappp bitcoin in a few weeks. I'm personally hoping for the latter so I can accumulate more. \n\n![BTC 141pm.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXb6vCSp1wARioUvZPoyU53Me9F1r1LqY3rQsMf9p12YD/BTC%20141pm.png)\n\nWe should know this week which direction this thing goes. I'm happy to be on the bear train, but if price action shows I'm wrong, I'll bail and bail quick.\n\nStay safe fam.\n_____________________________________________________________________________________________________\nAs always, if you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
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      "permlink": "btc-short-looking-good",
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      "body": "Hello voluntarymess!\n\nCongratulations! This post has been randomly Resteemed! For a chance to get more of your content resteemed join the [Steem Engine Team](https://steemit.com/steemit/@steemengineteam/join-steemengine-today)",
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Welcome to the week of July 30th, 2018. \n\nHopefully if you're reading this it means you've survived the whipsaws without stepping out of your window. Or at least the injuries were minor enough to use your laptop in the hospital.\n\nWith the exception of some brutal fake-outs, bitcoin has been range bound between ~8100 and ~8300 since the beginning of last week. I still think the short/medium term direction is downward, but I've been shifting more bullish with each passing day and each passing failure to sustain beneath the 8100 floor. \n\nI'm short. I'm sweating. What's it to ya?\n\nHere's the hourly chart showing the price range and some rejection points where price was pushed back into the 8100-8300 zone.\n\n![2018-07-30 636pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdMnVm5nnpbaT5dQHQkPHN3kwpVdxoSBtRWxV9p1xnWFt/2018-07-30%20636pm%20BTC.png)\n\nI hope that the next few days will see a more decisive trend emerging for bitcoin, but it could stay in this zone for awhile and chop some more plebs out. Careful with the leverage y'all.\n\nNot much to report from the weekend except for a pretty massive bear fake-out this morning. If something crazy happens this evening, I may post an update. Otherwise, see you on the other side of sun down.\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nAs always, if you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Looking forward to the weekend, you guys.\n\nIn the meantime, it looks like my bearish scenario is playing out more or less as planned. Got stopped out like a ding dong on a counter-trend scalp, but c'est la vie.  Luckily recovered with a short and have the stop-loss in profit territory so I can sleep tight. \n\nI'm expecting some kind of pullback but I think the next wave is down, and far down. This is the final sacrifice to the Lord God of Bitcoin so make sure it's not you. Ride the trend with your trading account and don't think about touching your savings. I believe we're about to enter a dark time for the next few weeks but when we make it out, it'll all be worth it. This is something that I like to call \"Shawshankin' it\" - we're about to start crawling. \n\n![31.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmej8Y4fYdf2Urdz71DKfrwTSf5zpy1zDnWLxAGryc3qrb/31.jpg)\n\nOf course, that's the bearish prediction. On the contrary, this could just be a healthy pullback on the way to 10k, with a bounce around 7700. I just don't think that's the case. However, depending on price action and volume, I may be convinced to change my mind.\n\nThe next few days will be important. The next levels of resistance will be near the falling wedge trend line in the 7700-7800 zone. If price breaks back into the wedge and closes a daily candle confidently below the trend line, I would imagine that to be the final nail in the bull run coffin until the real bottom is put in. \n\n![2018-07-26 839pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmT2wZ4JzBffhwErYXpNLpG3CdB3cJiSZ3zX3dR8PmjEpC/2018-07-26%20839pm%20BTC.png)\n\nHere's a chart, but I'm not sure one is needed for this post. I think most traders will be waiting to see what happens after we reach 7700-7800.\n\nStay safe fam.\n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nAs always, if you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
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      "title": "The kid's on fire (so far) - BTC breakdown"
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "It is Wednesday m'dudes.\n\nMy take-profit hit overnight so I'm a happy camper. Yesterday I mentioned that I would set a limit sell around the 618 fib at 8500 and that hit almost dead on. Depending on the exchange, the overnight high hit somewhere between 5485 and 5510. \n\nA tale of two animals.\n\nI'm sticking to my guns. My tale is one of the (cautious) bear: I think this is a bull trap and I don't think we're going higher right now. A quick jaunt through crypto twitter this morning would indicate that I'm holding up the short end of the vote, but I still think there needs to be more blood for the Lord God of Bitcoin before we are rewarded with a bull run. So far the similarities between the '13 cycle and this one are startling and as I've outlined in my previous articles, I believe we're due for the final plunge now that price was rejected at the 618 fib resistance level. There are a number of technical levels that could act as the lowest level of resistance prior to the next bull run: 786 fib support around 5600, 4500-4800 zone of support, and finally the 3500 area. If the fractal repeats, the 3500 area will be the reversal point for this bear trend. However, as more money comes in and the market increases in complexity, the bottom could come at one of these higher levels. \n\nAlternatively, we could have just broken out of the multi-month falling wedge pattern for good. Price could return to the trend line and bounce, rising to the 10k zone briefly pausing for a moment of truth, and then proceed to blastoff to the mewn. I just don't think that's the case. \n\nWe'll see how price action plays the remainder of the week and into the weekend, but the beginning of August will likely tell the tale of either bulls regaining control or bears driving the next wave downward.\n\nI hate posting low time frame charts because it reveals me as the degen that I truly am. But all I'm watching is the 15-minute chart to see which direction we're headed and making sure I don't get blasted on this open short I have. So here it is. The swing high occurred around 18 hours ago and the price is now in a falling wedge pattern with the 200 moving average acting as support. I suspect the area between 7700 and the 200ma are riddled with stop losses and if we break down below support the elevator is heading down. \n\n![2018-07-25 103pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZEX7NS6PWbPHPj1hchwP9FEKM5qhnpQZNdbTifG5jCV6/2018-07-25%20103pm%20BTC.png)\n\nUltimately I'm on team crypto so I want to see a rebound in price and am fully willing to hop on the bull train if price action shows the way, but I still feel like we need a bit more salt for the crypto twitter trolls before we've earned the right to start the next cycle.\n\nStay safe fam. \n___________________________________________________________________________________________________\nAs always, if you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
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      "permlink": "btc-bullish-or-bearish",
      "title": "BTC bullish or bearish"
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Love it when a good plan comes together. \n\nBitcoin price action is currently following the 2013 market cycle beautifully. As previously discussed, the price of bitcoin during the back-side of the '13 bull run rattled downwards in a falling wedge pattern. As price bounced from the support line of the wedge near the 786 fib level, there was a last gasp rally - the bull trap - to the 618 fib level and ultimately a final descent to the  low of that market cycle at a price of 181, an 84% decline from the highest daily candle close. \n\n![2018-07-24 1029am BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcQkCMXtiGxE4sHEoaEvcB8kSi5gXdiUSV8PUPSfwSXAc/2018-07-24%201029am%20BTC.png)\n\nBitcoin price is currently out of the falling wedge. A close of the daily candle would technically confirm a breakout from the wedge and indicate a possible incoming trend reversal. However, we would still need to break 10k to put in a higher high to confirm. \n\nThe bulls are buzzing on crypto twitter and it would be nice to join in, but I think the Lord God of Bitcoin still demands more blood. For the record, I'm currently riding a long position with a take-profit set near the 618 fib at 8500 - I'm betting on this fractal. If/When price reaches this level, I will be looking to go short to ride the last short of this market cycle down to 3500. And then I will be piling in with everything I have.\n\nIf we confirm above 10k with conviction then my theory is incorrect and the bottom was already put in. \n\nShifting gears to fundamentals/sentiment, you all may have heard about the possibility of an SEC-approved ETF coming to the US of A in the near future. Monkeying about in the legal framework of the financial world is not really my area of expertise or interest so I depend heavily on the articles I read for a feel for which way this may go. I've seen mixed reviews but the more I read, the more I suspect this latest effort at petitioning the SEC for an ETF may not go through. This will be announced in September (delayed already from August 15), and could be a major news event for BTC. \n\nhttps://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/\n\nAbove is a link to today's Coindesk article regarding the ETF. If it does get rejected, it would certainly take some wind out of bitcoin's sails from a trading perspective (not from a technology perspective, bitcoiners wouldn't and shouldn't give a shit about an ETF). Notice that corresponds roughly with a roughed-in swing high on the chart above. It could play out that this is the catalyst for the last bear run before the bottom is put in.\n\nCheers guys, stay safe.\n__________________________________________________________________________________________________\nAs always, if you want to trade with leverage and no hassles, use my link below for a discount on fees.\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "permlink": "bitcoin-bull-trap-and-the-last-short",
      "title": "Bitcoin bull trap and the last short"
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    {
      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Happy Monday everyone! \n\nIf you're in Texas, you might be growing agitated with the heat and it might be affecting your trades. You might be on tilt because it hasn't been under 100 degrees in a metric decade. I wouldn't know of course, but you might.\n\nLet's re-visit an earlier theme of market cycle comparisons as it seems like we're still on track per my post from two weeks ago. I'll incorporate a little recap so you don't need to go read it. :)\n\nPrice action confirmed bearish divergence last month on the daily chart, sending price plummeting downward and into an inverse head & shoulders pattern. This all occurred in the 2013 cycle as well. Once price broke out of the iH&S pattern upward, bulls briefly took control and pushed price to the 618 fib retracement level in the final bull trap of the cycle. \n\n![2018-07-23 1013am BTC (2013).png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNtaQBcswVB6TXqCBnvLihCp851dwqTpHDiv4CKN7p73b/2018-07-23%201013am%20BTC%20(2013).png)\n\nIf that same price action occurs with this cycle, we'll see a rush to a price level of around 8530 (618 fib), followed by the final plunge of the cycle down to ~3500. This will put in the bottom and start the new bull run. Of course, history doesn't repeat but it rhymes. \n\n![2018-07-23 1016am BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWidrBdMyG34Dd5WT6njcrKdydQ6thK8nXneBZicNs4k1/2018-07-23%201016am%20BTC.png)\n\nIf you want to trade with leverage, check out Bitmex with this link - no KYC and no hassles!\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"bitcoin\",\"cryptocurrency\",\"crypto\",\"trading\",\"cryptonews\"],\"image\":[\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNtaQBcswVB6TXqCBnvLihCp851dwqTpHDiv4CKN7p73b/2018-07-23%201013am%20BTC%20(2013).png\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWidrBdMyG34Dd5WT6njcrKdydQ6thK8nXneBZicNs4k1/2018-07-23%201016am%20BTC.png\"],\"links\":[\"https://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "permlink": "where-are-we-at-in-the-btc-market-cycle",
      "title": "Where are we at in the BTC market cycle?"
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  "timestamp": "2018-07-23T15:53:03",
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      "body": "One more quickie before we head into the weekend. \n\nI may get in on this setup with a relatively tight stop - the whipsaws seem to be far less drastic near support as opposed to the gnarly ones up at the top of the box near resistance. \n\n![2018-07-20 309pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVRqFdm22X5g2WKh7TBRGrwBf8nF4ky1XNULzBLj9g7ve/2018-07-20%20309pm%20BTC.png)\n\nUsing the 1-hour chart, a reasonable case can be made that we're still in this bullish box continuation pattern. The ascending triangle has been invalidated, if it was ever valid in the first place. Right now bitcoin is sitting near support around 7300-7350, the hourly just closed as a long-legged doji (indicating possible trend reversal as supply/demand even out), and hidden bullish divergence is forming between the price and stoch. This could be a fun play with a high ceiling, especially if bulls want to re-test the day's high. \n\nAlternatively, price could be forming a bear pennant indicating a decline of ~150 points. I think the support is stronger than the bearish pressure but it would be wise to check in over the next few hours for additional clues. Weekends are always better when you're riding a bull. \n\n\n\nBitMex referral:\n\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "permlink": "btc-bullish-divergence",
      "title": "BTC bullish divergence"
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  "timestamp": "2018-07-20T20:11:36",
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "TGIF guys - I think this is going to be an active weekend for BTC so no rest for the weary. \n\nAs we come to the close of this weird diamond and/or ascending triangle and/or symmetrical triangle, people are getting whip-sawed into oblivion. It looks like people are setting tight stops in hopes of riding the volatile price action, which is leading to more volatility. If you're a chartist, there's 8 different ways to look at this consolidation/reversal pattern at the top of the flag pole depending on time frame and wick vs. body trend lines.\n\nI was able to ride the pump out of the pattern and closed at 7611. It's worth noting that I had my take-profit set much higher at 7750. However, due to the weird price action and lag on Bitmex, I market closed and will not take another trade today unless there is a very enticing setup. The action is way too unpredictable to offer the proper risk/reward, especially after already closing a good trade on the day. \n\nIf you're charting the hourly, a fairly good case can be made that we're in an ascending triangle pattern. It's important not to be personally attached to the pattern and if price action exhibits behavior that contradicts your predictions, change your mind and change it quickly. Despite the whipsaw up to 7700ish, the hourly candle still closed in the triangle. We haven't had confirmation of a break upwards or downwards. \n\n![2018-07-20 1221pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTDHgX67qcnTEMHTcLCy3LYBV89nQpFGUJ5VJSd3VikKT/2018-07-20%201221pm%20BTC.png)\n\nAs previously stated, I believe the \"swing trade\" for the next few weeks is to look for a place to short and ride down with BTC in search for the bottom before we start the new market cycle. I think we're close to that point, so I won't be looking to take any additional long positions, but technically the setup is still there if you want it. I think it's a bit too high risk so I'll be riding into this weekend on the sidelines until something else crops up. \n\nA lower risk strategy might be to flip over to the alt charts on 'mex and short the shit out of them if BTC does break out. \n\nStay safe, fam.\n\n(Also, if you find anything I've written helpful, feel free to use my bitmex referral link below. It's free to sign up, no KYC, and leverage up to 100x on BTC. It's where I do all of my leveraged crypto trading.) \n\nhttps://www.bitmex.com/register/UhBYnD",
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{
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    {
      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Recently we saw bitcoin break the neckline of an inverse head & shoulders pattern which would (by traditional trading rules) predict an upward movement from the neckline of approximately 1100 points - measured by the depth of the pattern from the top of the head to the neckline. \n\nIf my prior 'big picture' article is correct, this would roughly coincide with the final rally before diving down to the 786 fib support level at ~5600. Again referring to a prior article, remember that if this market cycle is similar to the 2013 market cycle, bitcoin price will return to 786 fib support before quickly plunging ~40% and marking the bottom, thus completing the cycle. \n\nChanging back to the hourly time frame, bitcoin appears to be taking a breather after a blistering run on Tuesday. Though it's a tad sloppy, the price action is in a consolidation pattern half-way to our ultimate target of 7900. Because I believe that we're closing in on a much bigger leg down, I will be waiting for confirmation of a breakout upwards rather than trying to grab every last pip along the way from an overly-aggressive entry. \n\n![2018-07-19 1028am BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmewUUasXWSGRmRWB5peNMkF7m6Hj8RQ7hBUk6mnNNkB4R/2018-07-19%201028am%20BTC.png)\n\nIf you're looking to get cheeky, it looks like there's bear div forming on the hourly - a possible indication that there is one more bounce off the bottom of the box scheduled before the next rally.\n\nIf price breaks upward out of the box, I will be scaling out of the long position rather quickly and securing profits rather than getting caught on the wrong side of the trade. Night is darkest just before dawn... and I believe the sun will rise in September.",
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      "permlink": "btc-bullish-box",
      "title": "BTC bullish box"
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  "timestamp": "2018-07-19T15:36:33",
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{
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      "body": "I went outside for a quick jaunt around the neighborhood to get away from the charts after getting in long and boom, someone or a number of someones came into the market and injected some rocket fuel. Huge breakout on huge volume!\n\nUnfortunately, I wasn't here to adjust my take-profit which was set around the first level of support on the way down at 7200, but it's still been a great day! \n\n ![2018-07-14 144pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcAesHuXXcab582LRnEXpMs6qcbh3aK3b2iBTFV9bWs5U/2018-07-14%20144pm%20BTC.png)\n\nI'll probably be looking for an entry for one more long on a re-test of resistance as support. And after that we'll trade according to the plan - exit around the upper bounds of the wedge and look to go short. \n\nHappy July 17th everyone!",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "permlink": "well-that-was-faster-than-expected-for-btc",
      "title": "Well...that was faster than expected for BTC"
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{
  "block": 24259864,
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    {
      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "All eyes are on the low timeframe BTC charts. Everyone is waiting for confirmation of a neck-line break of the inverse head & shoulders pattern  formed over the last month which would be a bullish signal for traders. Volume appears to be heating up and a break of the neck line could send us up to the next technical level. \n\nPrice action and volume are far-and-away the most important indicators and so far we're on track to complete this pattern, but while we hang in the balance it's good to take a spin through a few indicators and see what story they have to tell. I've posted a chart with RSI and Stoch and you may notice something a tad alarming if you were banking on the neckline-break confirmation of the iH&S. Check the RSI trendline breakdown and re-test as resistance. Additionally, if price action fails to achieve a swing high above 6840, it's very likely bearish divergence will form which could signal a break downwards. \n\n![2018-07-14 1141am BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXBTk9C2QbNmwbk7LrVDs55fNCJirKmVNgRCiBjWzwvjP/2018-07-14%201141am%20BTC.png)\n\nI'm sticking to my guns of a bull-trap up to the wedge resistance followed by a break-down to the 786 fib support and ultimately down to 3500. If the iH&S confirms, traditional trading rules would suggest a run of ~1100 which corresponds to the approximate 'height' of the pattern as measured from neckline to the head. This would put the target right around the channel line of the falling wedge and a great place to take profit and potentially go short. \n\nI haven't seen enough evidence to change my trading plan, but if this iH&S fails to confirm it could change the plan quite a bit. It's a big 24 hours. \n\nKeep two hands on the wheel fam.",
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{
  "block": 24236564,
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      "author": "voluntarymess",
      "body": "Happy Monday gang!\n\nIt's bizarre to see green on Mondays but that's exactly what we have. Big daddy is up almost 5% over the last 12 hours starting around 5:30 this morning (eastern) and continuing to threaten upwards action. If you remember from last week, there was a possibility of the inverse head & shoulders pattern formation signalling a shift in the trend and it appears far more likely today than it did yesterday that this pattern will be confirmed. \n\nI know it's tempting to get excited about movement upwards after the last 7 months, but remember that we likely still have a bull trap in the chamber. Frankly, I'd like to get it out of the way and put the bottom in, so ideally this iH&S will fuel the rally to the upper bound of the falling wedge. If this is the case, the following is a possible scenario:\n\nPrice could rally over the course of the next two weeks to the upper bounds of the falling wedge and horizontal resistance in the vicinity of 7400. I'm not sure this would quite qualify as the kind of gut-wrenching trap that I have in mind, but in the spirit of price action following the \"path of most frustration,\" some traders are surely convinced that a retrace to the 786 fib level would be the end of the bleeding. I think not. \n\nIf you recall my previous articles, I believe that 786 will offer temporary support before the price crashes through that level down approximately 40% to 3500. This will be the bottom and signal the beginning of the next true bull run and a nationwide crash in demand for Ramen (possible short). I have this slated for mid-September based on a comparison of price action to the 2013 market cycle (see last Friday's article) and bearish divergence in the stoch.\n\n![2018-07-16 408pm BTC big picture.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRkTsjipUfTLbmuSTyBQsKwNpapaZEwtPJ9bc3fauYZkV/2018-07-16%20408pm%20BTC%20big%20picture.png)\n\nWith respect to timing, my prediction is playing out quite nicely with enough time allotted  for a bounce off the falling wedge line of resistance and coming back down to the bottom of the wedge around the 786 fib level at ~5600. The price will then break sharply downward out of the wedge, margin-calling every jabroni from here to Tim Buk Tu (at least they can use Bitmex) and culminating in a capitulation bottom on the exact day that Virginia Tech beats Florida State 27-21 in Tallahassee on a last second scoop-and-score. \n\nAnother possible wrinkle to this could be a short squeeze induced fake-out emergence from the wedge to the 618 fib level at 8500 which would certainly qualify in my book as a bull trap. Stay vigilant. \n\nAll in all, I think we're getting close to the bottom. However, I believe the uptrend will be slow to start and won't heat up until Q1 of 2019. I've got my eyes on the bitcoin ETF as a catalyst. It's tough to say exactly how that will play out, but if an ETF becomes a popular addition to passive investments, there could be quite a rise in demand for BTC. Approximately 500 billion per year is passively invested in the US alone. \n\n\"I have no timetable for these predictions, but just in case, keep them around and look at them in 5 to 10 weeks. Let us hope and pray that I am wrong on all accounts. If so, I will be very pleased.\"",
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      "body": "TGIF! If you're trading traditional markets, you're headed for a weekend of R&R. If you're trading crypto, you're cracking into an eight ball.\n\nWe're in some chop on the hourly time frame and I don't really see a great entry for one last scalp today, but conditions could change and I'll update accordingly. Let's zoom it out and see where we're at in the cycle and potential ways price action could play out.\n\nBitcoin price action has been forming a beautiful textbook falling wedge since January, rattling down to 6200 where we're sitting right now. I personally enjoy scalping on the lower time frame charts, but when the train leaves the station on the next run-up, you don't want to be caught on the wrong side so it's worth it to back things out from time to time. It looks like we have a few months to go before the next bull run begins, but how long exactly?\n\nFor those yearning for the tides to turn, I decided to do a comparison of this market cycle to 2013 and it may shed some light on the timing of a trend change. Keep in mind that as with all market analysis, there are no absolute correct answers. I cannot possibly be wrong in anything I've written below. gfy.\n\nLet's dive in.\n\nThe 2013 run-up began on July 6, 2013 when the daily candle closed at $64.90. Over the course of the next 146 days, the price of bitcoin multiplied 17.64x to a daily candle close on November 29, 2013 at $1145. In total, bitcoin realized a 1664% gain - blistering growth which set up the subsequent bear market. Also, take note of the check bounce at $181, you'll see that number in a moment.\n\n![BTC 2013 bull run.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQYf4cRv1TxAGdamMT28YUCsWpF1GD6SRyPkvTLevoVFa/BTC%202013%20bull%20run.png)\n\nOn November 28, bitcoin would begin it's long procession down to a low of $181 on January 15, 2015, taking a total of 412 days to complete the swing for a total price decline of 84%. During this time, bitcoin formed a falling wedge, bouncing from support to resistance until it hovered momentarily at the 786 fib support and suddenly crashed through support at $296 to $181, a price decline of 38.85%. In the weeks prior to this final dump, price action and stoch put in hidden bearish divergence. \n\n![BTC 2013 Run-Down.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfTWRjDYoGKCEu4HkeR4bsbZ9R4CAtRR2FnCctey7dK5Y/BTC%202013%20Run-Down.png)\n\nAlso, take note of the drastically increasing volume as the capitulation bottom hits. \n\n\nZoom to now.\n\n![hqdefault.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmb9yPMVR1tQqJ4LrqhZKuWVZrMpqchLuJ3SxEUWeZs9Vo/hqdefault.jpg)\n\nThe year is 2018: there are more genders than shitcoins and I'm watching my trading account dwindle on a 4K screen. Rad!\n\nThe first thing I want to identify is the bounds of the run-up during the first portion of the 2017/2018 market cycle. In the end, I decided to hold time as a constant and back out of the peak on December 17, 2017. Using the approximate length of 146 days, we can see a significant swing low on July 17, 2017 (153 days prior) to a price of 1925. Let's anchor the fib retracement here and see what we get. \n\n![BTC 2017 Run up.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRtgnTaKd23HAsjUhukwZQe3kTwHGsZLZdVXJ6nNqcWFe/BTC%202017%20Run%20up.png)\n\nThe first thing we notice is that BTC did a near-perfect 10x from 1925 to 19209. Beyond that, the only important thing here is setting fib levels in order to help with the predictions on the back-side of this peak. As mentioned earlier, we're hovering around 6200. This roughly coincides with the 786 fib level of 5324 (if you recall, the 2013 cycle was also slightly above the 786), and price action and stoch have again put in hidden bearish divergence on the daily chart. \n\nIf we are to use the 2013 cycle to predict the timing of trend reversal for the 2017/2018 cycle, we should expect the price to hover in this zone for a little while longer with a possible gnarly-ass whipsaw (seriously, look at that thing) before plunging down 38.85% from the 786 support level at 5623.80: a price of 3439. This would theoretically be a decline of 82% from the high; recall the 2013 cycle saw an 84% decline - is that spooky enough for you on this Friday the 13th? Additionally, if you recall in the '13 cycle, the capitulation event crashed down to a level that served as a level of support for the check bounce on the way up. Again, we see that could happen again if we follow the same path. It took approximately two months from the confirmation of bearish divergence for BTC to put in a bottom on the backside of the '13 cycle. We may be able to use that to estimate when we see the bottom of this cycle.\n\nIn summary: if my analysis is correct we should see more chop in the coming month followed by a capitulation bottom sometime in mid-September to ~3500 which would put in the bottom for this cycle and start the bull run of the next one. \n\nWhen will then be now? Soon.",
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      "body": "Almost Friday, fam.\n\nFollowing up on my post this morning (chart re-posted below) as expected BTC did drop to the 618 fib level and has been porpoising off that level of support at ~6167 for most of the day. The price performed a fake-out and was rejected below the fib level on rather high volume, propelling it up into the target box predicted yesterday. If you had shorts set in the 6280 region, they likely were filled. I don't think we have the buy support to break up out of this zone so keep stops above the fib level and ride this puppy out... I'd bet we're headed back down for another dive.\n\n![2018-07-12 744am BTC fib bounce.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVV9QVpEA9a16LoReFPu2cMvuZbTEhPswRgt7vRmEQsrQ/2018-07-12%20744am%20BTC%20fib%20bounce.png)\n\nIt's Thursday so set your stops & take-profits, crack a beer, and get away from the screens.\n\n![2018-07-12 721 BTC bounce.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTVLv3yKBtSNW955jJRfZVwKwxK8qEdTuV6rokfDfMBqU/2018-07-12%20721%20BTC%20bounce.png)\n\nCheers guys",
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      "body": "Thanks!",
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      "body": "Quick update this morning, with a longer technical article to follow. \n\nOvernight, we had the payoff candle in the hourly chart taking the BTC price down to the 618 fib level around 6175, dipping as low as 6130 in the early hours of the morning. I had my take-profit set at 6150 which closed around midnight. I believe the bigger move down is still in play, so now the task is to find a point of re-entry. \n\n![2018-07-12 744am BTC fib bounce.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVV9QVpEA9a16LoReFPu2cMvuZbTEhPswRgt7vRmEQsrQ/2018-07-12%20744am%20BTC%20fib%20bounce.png)\n\nOne idea that I will be monitoring is a bounce off of the 618 fib back up to the 50 level and then another push downward from there. I'm not confident enough to go long, but I will be looking to short if we get the bounce. Until the next move develops, I will be on the sideline.\n\nBack to my coffee, bacon, and eggs.",
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      "body": "Great article, @voluntarymess!",
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      "body": "It is Wednesday m'dudes. \n\nI'm currently transferring my bitcoin node over to a different computer and am reminded of how much data is contained in the bitcoin blockchain. I started syncing before the England/Croatia match a few hours ago (more crypto twitter salt incoming) and have barely made a dent. Almost a full decade of immutable, uncensorable, irreversible, and trustless value transactions! I feel a bit naked with my node out of commission, but maintenance is a part of life and sometimes you have to bite the bullet. \n\nLet's dive into some technicals.\n\nShorting the bearish divergence yesterday turned out to be a good move, and depending on how ballsy you were on the entry, you could be looking at 6-7% gain with no leverage. Feels funny bragging about those numbers in crypto... but hey, here we are. It's chop, make money. I waited for a confirmation, which turned out to be a huge red candle eating into my entry, so I've been hovering around even. Now the question is, did we get it right? \n\nInitially, as I opened my position, the corn dropped around 100 USD down to 6260 or so and I thought I nailed it, almost closed the position. But we're not here for mini-moves, so I kept it open. The massive bear div on the daily indicated potential for a much bigger multi-week move, and I tend not to be much of an intra-day trader. For reference, the prior two bearish divergences were followed by a 33-day and 50-day price decline, respectively. This, in combination with market sentiment, is reinforcing my resolve to keep this position open rather than close it out for minimal gain on the next mini-swing low.\n\n![2018-07-11 455pm BTC bear div.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmabgUx3KwUHoSHG3wVx8oUpoCaPEXQVSkNZKaisN1HeRY/2018-07-11%20455pm%20BTC%20bear%20div.png)\n\nOn the other hand, zooming into the hourly chart, the 6290 level of support has been defended four separate times since yesterday afternoon. Keep in mind that this has been on relatively low volume, but the candle formations are classic long-wick indicators of zone support.  Above this area of consolidation is a level of resistance that has knocked price down four separate times around the area of 4208. Price discovery in this zone has been volatile so it's been feast or famine on the shorter time-frame charts. \n\n![2018-07-11 514pm BTC hourly support.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPnBkbzmkFAj8NQdQPJvXPUBGVP7DyXVdtXxuN4acGMBp/2018-07-11%20514pm%20BTC%20hourly%20support.png)\n\nOne thing to watch out for is the completion of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily which would suggest a trend reversal. And an iH&S of this size could mean \"the\" trend reversal. You could see the potential for this to develop even several days ago when the swing-high was put in for our bearish divergence, but it certainly looks as though it's a growing possibility. I'm going to trust the larger time-frame confirmed divergence rather than an unconfirmed potential chart pattern, but it's something to keep an eye on. Remember that despite what the hot-shots will have you think, there's no real right or wrong - there's continual adjustment as risk-reward moves either for you or against you. I will be tightening my stops as time goes on.\n\n![2018-07-11 442pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbxBQZj65QV2ynp7h1xvmabhL1cYhmbM3s4cbkz7Sdw2N/2018-07-11%20442pm%20BTC.png)\n\nTime will tell which way we're headed, but one thing is for sure: if we break down out of the 6290 area, we could have a ways to go. For fun, see below for how important the 6290 and 6408 support/resistance lines are. These were the bounds of consolidation on the way up, and now they're acting as the bounds of consolidation (potentially) on the way down. Now pop on your fib retracement, and voila, a nearly perfect match with the 382 and 50 levels. Cool! Don't be afraid to use that 618 level as a target to cover your short. \n\n![2018-07-11 521pm BTC fib levels.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmebRPwDz2HwsGLNtW1wJm5Kp57km6UaaDpoVBsxfy9wAR/2018-07-11%20521pm%20BTC%20fib%20levels.png)\n\nCheers and stay safe!",
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      "body": "Gone are the days of set-it-and-forget-it trend riding. We're in the chop of what could be an extended accumulation period, so keep that in mind before cranking up the leverage or ignoring stop losses. Crypto twitter is as cranky as ever and I'm sure today's World Cup match will offer a brief hiatus from the tears followed by a dump truck of salt. If you're a Hodler, you've likely uninstalled Blockfolio for the time being and just gone about your life, and you likely made the correct decision.  However, for those of us out there trying to play the chop, we have a decent short opportunity potentially opening up with a bearish close of the daily candle in the next few hours. \n\n![dr-strangelove-still-580.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXPZRV9RVDN6DW2MEV83BHxacTkYhXwbyFBdk5n2i2EQZ/dr-strangelove-still-580.jpg)\n\nBearish divergence will confirm (given the candle close) with one more downward day of price action and could run down to the next level of horizontal support over the next several days to the 6000 area. This is emerging as a strong level of support, but it's worth noting that the previous bearish divergence saw a price discount of over 40% from the beginning of May to mid-June (slightly less if you waited patiently for confirmation). A short position over that time frame surely would have cured the Hodler blues and made your presence at the Memorial Day pool party more tolerable. \n\n![2018-07-10 1255pm BTC.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdaRRAxRsyVhtb35wvvGQQUPG9gN3NHTq7k5unbYG7B9q/2018-07-10%201255pm%20BTC.png)\n\nIf the estimated price action comes to fruition, 6000 will be a critical (CRITICAL) level. If we can't hold, I bet we head to the mid-4000's and re-test there. If that fails...we're going to be headed to 3k soon enough. However, I believe (for now) that the 6k region will hold. We could dip down to the 5800's like the last swing low, but with the facts on the ground, prepare to close shorts in the 5800-6100 area and start looking to open longs if the volume and price action is there.\n\nStay safe out there and keep two hands on the wheel.",
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