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      "author": "victorwu",
      "body": "“比特币突破30000人民币”\n\n“比特现金3天时间涨幅达200%，突破5000人民币”\n\n“以太币不到一年时间涨幅达50倍，达3000人民币，从ICO时的3元钱算起，到现在涨幅700多倍，时间是3年”\n\n“各种ICO项目层出不穷，上市开盘直接涨5-10倍以上”\n\n“朋友圈到处充斥着赚钱效应，好像每个人都是亿万富翁，每个人都靠猪币狗币实现了财务自由”\n\n“各种群，各种小蜜圈，各种小报告，小工具，卖铲子的比淘金者还要多”\n“群里各种截屏，贴图，开香槟庆祝”\n\n微信的问候语不是“最近可好？”，\n\n而是，\n\n“你赚了几倍”\n“出来了没有”\n“我跑早了，TMD还在涨”\n“要走你走，我还要让子弹飞再一会儿”\n\n每天都在打鸡血，会不会太亢奋。\n\n如此嘈杂的声音，是那样的亲切和熟悉；每一轮牛市和投资狂潮都能听到或见到类似的声音，但是，当潮水退去之后，将会发现谁在裸泳。不管是牛市或熊市，二八定律甚至是一九定律永远存在，挣钱的只是那10%甚至更少的人；\n\n投资是一项马拉松运动，在10公里处领先，挣到了一点钱，庆祝的是不是太早了一点，江湖上流传着一句话“出来混，迟早都要还的”，短暂的账面财富不能理解成挣钱，更不能定义为成功，甚至想复制“成功”，等你想复制的时候，可能就掉坑里了。\n\n在我的10年不算成功的股票投资生涯里面，今日借着比特币的牛市，与大家分享一下我对投资或投机的些许感悟。\n\n一、必须要有自己的价值观和思想，哪怕是暂时错误的；\n\n投资是一项非常复杂的外加部分运气的技术活和艺术活。\n\n很多人以为会买，会卖，就以为自己是巴菲特了，就以为自己是游泳健将了，可以下海游泳了，不呛水才怪呢，对于初入市场的人，笔者的建议是，先看半年盘，什么都不做，再用半年时间，拿一万元钱，刻意练习一下什么是SB？ (Sell卖/Buy买)，并做记录，先感受一下市场。![微信图片_20180203141224.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdgMKtYG6kLA31Xqcgxe7U3ZKdFuUPZRz5s8gMQjRteYf/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20180203141224.jpg)\n\n在牛市的过程中短暂的挣到钱是很正常的，但是，这也只是市场让你挣到钱，而不是你自己的投资策略让你赢得市场；不能把市场的成功理解成你的成功，更不能把你的一次成功，理解成下一次也会成功，这就比如，抛硬币的概率事件一样，哪怕是你99次抛出的硬币都是正面朝上，这都不能证明或保证，你第100次抛出去还是正面超上，第100次与前面的99次的概率都是一样，都是50%概率；\n\n有人在市场上挣到钱之后，就自以为自己掌握了赚钱的规律，一招鲜，吃遍天，其实每一次成功或挣到钱都是有特定的环境和土壤，不具有复制性；\n\n稀里糊涂的挣钱，也会稀里糊涂的亏钱；\n\n如何避免稀里糊涂的挣钱和亏钱，那就需要价值观做为投资准绳，自己需要什么？为什么？预期是什么？ 为什么要买？为什么要卖？什么重要？什么更重要？什么最重要？ \n\n赚自己看的清楚，算的清楚的钱，才会明白为什么赚钱，为什么亏钱；\n\n要赚清清楚楚的钱，而不是稀里糊涂的赚钱又亏钱；\n2，到处嚷嚷的人，不一定是真正挣钱的人\n\n如果你真的赚钱了，想想这些钱应该怎么花，甚至花掉一半以上，有钱人花钱比赚钱痛苦的，所以，怎么花钱也决定了，你还能不能继续赚钱，有点绕，是吧？\n\n我曾经就是一个到处嚷嚷的受害者，希望你不要涛声依旧，登上这条破船。\n\n2015年笔者满仓某只股票，连吃14个涨停板，财富瞬间暴涨300%，涨停涨到让你怀疑人生。\n\n梦幻般的赚到钱以后，对我的心里产生极大的冲击\n\n第一次见这么大的钱，心里膨胀，很激动，太激动，激动到“忘我”的境界；\n刷存在感，恨不得要让全世界知道我很牛逼；\n\n心里“变态”，显摆，嘚瑟，老子天下第一；\n\n半年以后的结局是，我躲过了初一，没躲过十五，钱从哪里来，继续回哪里去；![微信图片_20180204095813.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcLc1fyZA6rjhhUahox74AcyUsHBSTGsqsBGg8eUHJaCR/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20180204095813.jpg)\n\n谦虚是一种美德，\n\n赚了钱之后，能不能证明“你”还是“原来的你”。\n\n为了避免重蹈覆辙，想想挣钱是为什么？初衷什么？要为社会或地球，自己，家人做点什么？想好钱怎么花？\n到处嚷嚷是最愚蠢的行为，没人会因为你挣钱了而高兴，也没人因为你亏钱了而哭泣；\n\nalways keep quite, be humble！\n\n3，为什么要抢？？\n\n最近ICO实在太火了，火到很多人挤破头皮也抢不到，是这个所谓的ICO项目真的很好嘛？我看未必，而是，每个人进场的时候都把标的假想成以太币，切记，不是每个币都能成为以太币，也不是每一个项目都能成功，假设，你在ICO项目挣到钱，很大程度上，要归功于市场和运气，我不相信每一个项目都会成功，我也不反对参与ICO项目，我本人也有参与ICO项目，如果真的好项目，必须要抢，而且要有方法的去抢，增加抢到的命中率。大家可以回顾一下当年蔡文胜是如何抢注（非常棒的）域名的。\n\n一个挣钱的机会需要去抢的话，可能存在以下几种情况\n\n第一，这确实是一个好机会，大家的判断和行动一致，所以需要抢；\n第二，无脑跟风者太多，乱抢；\n第三，当大家抢的时候，适当的冷静思考一下，你为什么要抢？\n第四，历史反复的证明，赚钱要靠抢的时候，都是比较疯狂和危险的时候；\n\n想想2015年的牛市吧，全国人民抢着买股票，把交易所的服务器都抢的宕机了。\n\n反过来想，总是反过来想\n\n如果真是一个好项目，你以为真的轮的到你抢吗？江湖上的VC,VP,LP大佬们都是吃素的吗？\n\nICO里面可能会存在下一个以太币或比特币，但是，大部分都只是幻影，我相信一九定律，成功的永远是少数，从概率上讲，全球现在有上万个ICO项目，也许会有10个能成为未来的GAFATA，但这个概率也只是万分之十，你真的相信你的运气那么好嘛？\n\n熊市一来，都将归为尘土，那个时候，你才能找到真正的，未来的GAFATA。![微信图片_20180204100022.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmapJk9HPMU3d9U4A7K63QVHHUh2bu8gwiacvRwx3Y9ydi/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20180204100022.jpg)\n\n现在的GAFATA也是经历过2000年的科网股泡沫才野蛮生长的；回顾一下段永平是如何在网易赚够100倍的故事吧！\n\n“价值互联网”才刚刚开始，挣钱不要急，不要抢，好项目还在后头；\n\n挣钱这事情，要胸有成竹，不慌不忙，至今还没有见过谁通过抢而成功的。\n\n4，真的相信有庄家吗？\n\n我们来看看百度百科是怎么定义——庄家\n\n庄家，指能影响金融证券市场行情的大户投资者；通常是占有50%以上的发行量； 庄家通常是指持有大量流通股的股东。庄家坐庄某股票，可以影响甚至控制它在二级场的股价。庄家和散户是一个相对概念。\n\n\n如果你认为市场有庄家，认为自己是散户，天生的韭菜命，那是你自己妄自菲薄；\n\n你以为世界只有庄家会赢吗？回头看中国证券市场三十年的发展史，有那个庄家现在还活着，你让他出来走两步，没有，对吧？\n\n所谓的庄家，只不过是你心里的“假想敌”而已。\n\n在投资之前，如果你还是用简单的K线图或有没有庄家来做决策，只能说明你的段位不够；\n\n在我看来，市场上并不存所谓的庄家，也不存在散户，只存在“庄家思维”和“散户思维”。\n\n市场上有买就有卖，有卖就有买，但是，你知道你卖给谁了吗？你买的，又是谁卖给你的呢？\n\n真正的交易对手是你自己，不是他，也不是庄家，真正的敌人是你自己，你的交易，你的盈亏是你自己的事情，跟庄家无关；\n\n这是一个相对自由，平等的市场，没有人逼着你来入所谓的庄家的局，所以，在入局之前，自己要先擦亮眼睛，练好本事。\n\n这个世界要做一个好人，必须要有超过坏人的本领才行\n\n5，不经历两个周期，都不能算是合格的投资者\n\n笑来老师说过：\n\n在没有等到下一个牛市前，不算入行。不穿过一个周期，你就是打酱油的。不穿过两个周期，不会成为专家。穿过3次周期，将成为李笑来\n\n笔者非常赞同笑来老师的观念，再补充一点点自己的感悟\n\n没有在一只股票或**币上挣够10倍，没玩过tenbagger的，不算合格的投资者；\n\n没有耐心持有一只股票或**币达三年以上不操作者，不算合格投资者；\n\n没有体验过5个跌停板或短时间内账面损失50%以上者，不算合格投资者；\n\n只有真正享受过过山车的刺激，你才能体会到什么是高潮，什么是低潮？\n\n只有真正痛过和爱过，才知道什么是爱情，什么是男人，什么是女人；\n\n只有真正体会过钱的魔力的者，才能体会到什么是贪婪，什么是恐惧，什么是钱？什么是“钱真TMD不是钱”？\n\n只有真正穿越牛熊者经历过至少一个周期，才能体会到，什么是耐心？什么是时间的朋友？\n\n最终的结果是，终于弄明白了，什么是你自己？你自己是什么？![微信图片_20180204100111.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmX2qPF4zwYxY5ZZdJSDMkVRyfEdvy3zsyBKr9EgdAUZgq/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20180204100111.jpg)\n\n6，对钱的理解，决定了你赚钱的高度\n\n笔者以为，这个世界能正在成为金钱的主人，才能真正“配得上”拥有钱和财富，可惜的是，绝大多数人都是金钱的奴隶；这句话有点本本主义，但是，确实是一句正确的屁话！\n\n千万不要想着，有钱了，我就怎么样怎么样了，那真不是你的；\n\n钱=贱，钱就是“贱”，你越追求她，她越不理你；你越是不理她，她越是赖着你；反正，我是没体会过钱赖着我的感觉，马云应该体会的到。\n\n笔者以为对待钱的态度，要向强东哥学习，明明娶了一个小美女为妻，他偏说，“我是脸盲，我不知道我老婆多漂亮”\n\n对待美女和对待金钱要有一种“空”的心态，对钱的理解，决定了你赚钱的高度。\n\n这一节，有点难写，我的表达能力有限，慢慢领悟，我自己也需要慢慢体会呢。\n\n7，心存敬畏之心，方能行有所止\n\n众所周知，泰坦尼克号设计最大败笔是救生艇不够，为什么只配置了少量的救生艇呢？那是因为设计师们狂妄自大的认为，泰坦尼克号是一艘永不沉没的巨轮，没必要，但是，最后，还是沉没了。\n\n在我们的生活和世界里，对我们身边的万事万物，一定要心存敬畏之心，方能行有所止，不能做一些与自然规律想背的事情，当你常备“救生艇”出海的时候，哪怕是巨轮沉没，也不至于\"死无葬身之地\"；\n\n假如你问我现在还能不能投比特币，我想问你，你现在进去，你认为多长时间？能不能涨10倍以上？如果这两个答案你都不能肯定，就不要进去了。![微信图片_20180204100216.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUxHkTt21b8Wybx75ZaV11hkTHFQuWA5DrHB5aiKm8DWH/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87_20180204100216.jpg)\n\n不要被别人的胜利，蛊惑了你的头脑，很多时候，常识比知识更靠谱，更管用！\n\n在投资的世界里，与时间做朋友！\n\n只要活的足够长，在一个不确定的世界里，长怀敬畏之心，外加适当的勇气和一点点运气，相信我，我们一定能够轻轻松松，不慌不忙的赚够一个亿。加油！\n\n我是吴郎，我将会持续的分享区块链项目分析，以及我在区块链投资的一些思考和心得，实践，防止失联，果断关注微信公众号：吴郎；\n\n作者：吴郎\n坐标：Motherland\n定个小目标，挣他一个亿\n来不及了，按二维码，即刻上车\n![公众号二维码.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmV3rD5eKFPuZzukj8C1CtbKt1XbnnQ9VzWMKH2YjBM1XY/%E5%85%AC%E4%BC%97%E5%8F%B7%E4%BA%8C%E7%BB%B4%E7%A0%81.jpg)\n微信：victoract17",
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