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      "body": "```\n100篇刻意练习 #50：\n《我的 Mixin 投资逻辑》\n全文共计 2749 字\n本文由币乎(bihu.com)优质内容计划支持\n```\n\n这几天反复研读了 Minxin 的白皮书。\n\n对照了很多天花乱坠的空气币白皮书，Mixin 的这份白皮书，其写作风格真的称得上思路清晰，言简意赅。\n\n看了又看，我得出了我的结论：\n>**Minxin 可能是超越 EOS 的存在。**\n\n真的，Minxin 给人的想象空间是在太大了。\n\n首先，移动互联网本来就是趋势，Mixin 的整个生态系统，都是围绕移动互联网展开的，这在物种上就较大多数基于 PC 端的项目高了一级。\n\n仅仅是**把区块链应用从 PC 搬到手机**这一点，其价值就大到无法想象。\n\n想想从 QQ 到微信，从 lol 到王者荣耀，从吃鸡到手游吃鸡……\n\n如果 Mixin 只能做到这些，那他只是一个优秀的创业项目，但很快便会迎来各种同质化产品的竞争。就像当初的微信，也必须从面对什么飞信，米聊，手机 QQ 等一大堆竞争的对手，然后从中杀出一条血路来一样。\n\n如果真是这种情况，那我们投资的风险还是很高的\n\n还好 Mixin 不止这么简单。\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQme46Yjp4uf73P3wWGXJcW1Ap131b1VdxpohqeF1xDGupT/mixin.jpg)\n----\n除了把去中心化的应用（Dapp）移到手机端，Mixin 还做了哪些事呢？\n\n**它可以变相地为 BTC，ETH 等区块链项目扩容。**\n\n你可以把 Mixin 理解成一个钱包应用，在这个钱包上，所有的币，转账都是即时到账的，零知识证明，零转账费用。\n\n这让我想到了什么？——交易所。\n\n那么这里就产生了一个问题：Mixin 会是一个去中心化的交易所吗？\n\n我想，如果我的解读没错，那么 Mixin 的解决方法是\n>**用中心化的去中心化应用，来解决大量其他去中心化应用效率低下的问题。**\n\n是不是很绕？人话版就是，Mixin 本身是个去中心化的应用，然后 Mixin 会做为一个功能中心，来解决其他去中心化应用效率低下的问题。比如 BTC 转账慢这样的情况。\n\n不知道这一点我解释清楚了没。即使你没怎么看懂，也没关系。虽然这点很重要很重要，但除了这个功能，Mixin 还有其他的惊喜给我们。\n\n----\n**Mixin 本身还是个社交应用。**\n\nMixin 天然的就是个社区。在可预见的将来，Mixin 会成为区块链爱好者的聚居地。\n\n这有什么意义呢？\n\n说到这里，我们需要来看看俄罗斯的微信 Telegram。\n\nTelegram 是如今区块链社群的扎堆混的地方，日活跃用户在2016年已经超过一亿，日均处理消息150亿条。\n\n如今是2018年，没有可考的数据告诉我们 Telegram 发展的怎样了，但一定比2016年要好。\n\nMixin 的应用，其本身作为和 Telegram 同类的软件，以区块链作为切入点，其发展上限真的让人有无限的遐想空间。\n\n甚至就连名字都让人浮想连篇：**Mixin vs Weixin**？可能 Mixin 的目标根本不是 Telegram，而是微信。\n\n----\n再来说说 Mixin 的代币。\n\n**Mixin 一共发行100万枚代币，代币名字叫做：XIN。**\n\n在区块链的世界里，100万枚代币是很少一个数量了。比特币的发行数量是总计2100万枚，那已经是稀缺资源了。其他类似的ETH 流通量970万，EOS 发行量10亿枚。还有无数的什么山寨币，一来就是几十亿几百亿枚的随便发。\n\n我们关注的是价值，而不是价格。所以仅仅看发行流通量，对我们意义不大。\n\n但是，\n\n100万的流通量可以解释为什么如今 Mixin 还是默默无闻的情况下，单个代币的价格就超过5位数了。\n许多人对这个价格望之生畏，我再声明一次，我们投资最好关注的是价值，而不是价格，从长远来看，Mixin 的价格，很可能还在山脚下。\n\n好了，话说回来，这100万个代币怎么用呢？\n\n**其他 Dapp，想要在 Mixin 的区块链应用上运行，需要抵押至少1万个 Mixin 代币。**\n\n用人话版解释就是：其他的币想要上 Mixin 平台，至少要抵押1万个XIN。比如今天量子链想要在 Mixin 上交易了，就得抵押1万个 XIN 代币在 Mixin 的区块链上。每一个代币上线，都需要抵押一部分 XIN 代币。这就导致了 XIN 的流通量，会远远少于100万个。\n\n同时，对用户，Mixin 是不收费的，他向接入的 Dapp 收费。收取的费用是用 XIN 支付，这部分 XIN 会立即销毁，从而使还在流通中的 XIN 代币的价值提升。\n\n所以呀，XIN 是个通缩的代币，这也难怪李笑来老师会说：\n>几年后，拥有10个 XIN 的人，可能就财富自由了。\n\n（唉，我懒，懒得去找原话了，差不多就这意思）\n\n哦，还有一点，XIN 的代币数量是少了一丢丢，关于这点项目方自己也是有 B 数的。所以在流通中，人们会使用的是 **MIX** 代币。（看清楚咯 MIX  and XIN）\n\n其实 MIX 和 XIN 是同一个东西，用不同的单位表示。换算关系是：\n> **1000 MIX = 1 XIN**\n\n嗯，就酱。\n\n----\n最后说说 Mixin 的估值。\n\n今天（2018.1.30），XIN还只能在 BIGONE 交易所上交易，每一个 XIN 的市场价是11300 RMB。\n>**1 XIN = 11300 CNY**\n\n以100万枚 XIN 的总发行量计算，XIN 这个项目的目前估值为113亿 CNY，17亿USD。\n\n可能人们对大数字不是很敏感。17亿美金的公司大概是什么样的呢？\n\n估值10亿美金以上的公司被称为独角兽，算是比较稀有的了。这样的公司，去年2017年，我所在的杭州有29家。再加上已经上市的企业，杭州市资产估值比 MIXIN 高的企业有近40家。\n\n这样看来，MIXIN 作为还未完全落地的项目，估值还是偏高的，是吧？\n\n可是呀，咱们币圈的不是这样看估值的。我们看的大多是相对值，比如：\n\nEOS 的目前估值是540亿 CNY，84亿USD。同样作为未落地的项目，如果 MIXIN 的项目前景大于 EOS，那么估值至少还有5倍的增长空间。\n\n可是 EOS 是区块链中大白马呀，热度第一，势不可挡，MIXIN 算什么呢？怎么和 EOS 相比？\n\n这，就是仁者见仁智者见智了。\n\n----\n以上为我这几天从研究 XIN 的白皮书起，到做出投资决定的一些参考事实，以及我的一些想法。\n\n**请读者自行区分文中的想法和事实。**（这很重要）\n\n最后，我还是想奶一下 MIXIN 的。除了上述的分析之外，还有很多其他细节让我觉得这是一个值得投资的项目（请注意接下来全是想法）。\n\n比如 Mixin 的投资人，CEO 都是我觉得很靠谱的人。\n\n比如 Mixin 的产品（Mixin APP）已经发布，所以杜绝了空气币和被骗的可能，剩下的只有成功和不成功。\n\n再比如我很喜欢 Mixin 的界面。\n\n……\n\n嗯，就写到这儿吧。\n\n请注意，以上分析，不构成任何投资建议。",
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      "body": "```\n100篇刻意练习 #49：\n《科学上网》\n全文共计 1632 字\n本文由币乎(bihu.com)优质内容计划支持\n```\n\n\n科学上网是你进入区块链世界的第一步，如果你不能搞定科学上网看到墙外的世界，那么一切的去中心化，都和你无关，你只是被豢养的局域网绵羊而已。\n\n事实上，即使不是参与区块链投资，你也应该掌握科学上网这项技能。\n\n这不是一篇教你如何科学上网的文章，这是一篇告诉你**为什么要科学上网**的文章。\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUpduz1NbpLcWcPu4dwDEvCDmzJHY2Qm37nH9TiWxDN5J/%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E4%B8%8A%E7%BD%91.jpg)\n\n----\n\n一只生活在田里的青蛙，和一只生活在井底的青蛙，一定是井底的那只更笨吧。\n\n它的活动范围有限、视野有限、感知有限，并且这只青蛙，它自己还不知道自己的世界有如此多的桎梏，因为它自己是看不到的。\n\n>**没有人愿意做井底之蛙，可惜每个人都是井底之蛙。**\n\n人类从来都无法跳出自己的认知边界，去观察自己所处的世界。\n\n哥白尼站在太阳系的角度观察世界，提出了日心说，没有人认可，因为它不在普通人的认知范围里.\n\n达尔文写下《物种起源》，却20多年不敢发表，因为他知道这些知识不在当时普通人的认识范围里.\n\n爱因斯坦1905年写下相对论，10多年没有人看得懂，到了1021年爱因斯坦获得诺贝尔奖的时候，获奖原因居然不是相对论，而是更容易理解的光电效应。\n\n当然了，即使是上述这些大拿，也有自己理解不了和解释不了的东西。没有人生来就能感知一切。\n\n但是呢，所有的牛人，所有的成功人士，都有一个共同的特点：\n>**在一切可感知到的范围内，努力阔大自己的认知边界。**\n\n----\n\n我们把话题收回来，这之前提到的科学上网，就是我们扩大认知边界的一个方法。\n\n今天存在于互联网上的数据，90%以上都是英文的内容，而中文内容不足5%。单从数字上看，你一定不会觉得中文世界的这5%，就代表了人类的未来吧。\n\n世界上市值前3名的互联网公司——苹果、谷歌、亚马逊，都被限制了很大一部分内容。**从不作恶(don’t be evil)**的谷歌直接放弃了中国市场，真不知道 ZF 想让他们做什么恶……\n\n在苹果的App Store 的中国市场里，区块链世界所需要使用的 App，你一个都下载不到，不开玩笑。\n\n在亚马逊上，我们学习区块链的外语书籍，也基本踪迹全无。\n\n这都什么年代了？连某个第 N 世界的小国家生产的给狗用的擦爪子的膏药，都已经海淘到家了，一本书畅销书，特么的居然买不到。这种事，我觉得除非是故意的，不然想做不到都很难……\n\n除了这些，世界上最大的社交网站 facebook，最大的职业社交网络 LinkedIn，移动端用户量过亿的几款 IM 软件：LINE，Skype，Viber，Whatsapp 还有区块链社群经常使用的 Telegram，通通都被屏蔽。\n\n房间里有一只大象，而大家都习以为常，从未正视过它一眼。\n\n也可能你早看他不顺眼了，只是懒得理会它……\n\n----\n国家让我们这一代人，花了10几年的时间学习英语，却硬生生地剥夺了我们使用英语认知世界的机会，这，不地道，我们，可以不忍。\n\n我是一个留学生，大概在10年前体会了 google 检索的便利性后，从此再无退回百度的可能。不同的搜索引擎，不但决定了你检索到的信息的可靠性，甚至还能区分两类完全不同的人群。\n\n我给家里的路由器直接挂了 VPN，把家里的所有电脑都默认 google 搜索，这使得我那不懂英文的父母感到很不方便。可我认为，这不方便是值得的，也是必须的。我不希望有一天，父母在搜索**三甲医院**这样的个关键字时，获得的不是信息，而是诈骗。\n\n这样的担忧，就像年轻人担心老人看多了营销号的养生秘笈一样。在做了个简单的风险量化计算后，我觉得这样的做法，这还是值得的。\n\n这是值得的——即使是对于我那花甲之年的父母，科学上网都值得去做的一件事。\n\n那么对于我们年轻人呢？\n\n世界从来不会改变他本来的样子，我们需要的是一副能让我们看的更清楚的眼镜，而不是一堵冰冷的墙。\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZ7MYDGg6wd7ue98EtZDUbZWhxy7Dru5X4YzZJZQzAcYu/telegram-cloud-file-5-852734283-17530-2660118451341711317.jpg)",
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      "body": "在区块链市场上追涨杀跌就是赌博，最终必然会使人亏光本金。\n\n对，是必然！\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmbwzQoSfnbTeTpZLwt8fPU6hj3fWv65BV61EReXzrcxNP/%E9%80%A2%E8%B5%8C%E5%BF%85%E8%BE%93.jpg)\n----\n要得出必然会亏光本金的结论，我们首先得介绍一个看似很土的概念：\n>**独立随机事件**\n\n独立随机事件指的是，两件事或者几件事之间，毫无关系。并且，他们自己是否会发生，会怎样发生，也完全随机。\n\n就好像你在掷骰子，之前无论你掷出了几个“6”，都和你下一次掷筛子毫无关系。并且，你下一次投掷会产生的结果，也是完全随机，无法预测的。\n\n区块链资产的价格波动也完全符合这个模型。\n\n无论之前代币是涨是跌，无论之前涨了多久，跌了多久，都和下一秒的价格波动毫无关系。而下一秒的价格涨跌，也是完全无法预测。\n\n简单总结一下：\n>独立：两件事或几件事之间毫无关系；\n>随机：一件事是否发生，怎样发生无法预测。\n\n这就是独立随机事件。\n\n----\n\n接着我们来介绍一个经济学词汇，叫做：\n>**流动性限制**（liquidity constraint）\n\n网上对流动性限制这个词的解释，说人话的很少，其实它的意思可以粗暴地理解为：\n>一个人拥有的钱是有限的，不能用超了。\n\n既然区块链资产的价格波动是随机独立事件，那么我们的任何决策，其结果也都是完全随机的。即无论你投入了多少脑力在里面，结果都不会向你预期的方向偏移一分一毫。\n\n赚还是亏，完全看脸。\n\n在这样的数学模型下，**价格波动的幅度会随着交易次数的增加而不断累积变大**。总归会有一个临界点，下行的波动幅度大于你手里的筹码数量。\n\n当价格波动太大，大到超过了流动性限制，其结果就是本金归零。\n\n可以做这样一个程序来解释：每一次运算，结果是完全随机的+1或者-1。\n\n程序的起始数字就是你手里的筹码，代表了你的流动性限制。\n\n一旦程序开始运行，无论你的初始筹码有多少，程序的唯一终结点（stopping point）就是初始筹码亏完，程序归零。\n\n----\n在博弈论里，有一个概念叫做：\n> 鞅（Martingale）\n\n关于鞅的解释，网上找到的大多也说的不是人话。\n\n直白点的解释就是：一个公平赌博的数学模型。\n\n如果系统设定了这个赌博模型的函数期望值，而这个期望值是一条平行于X轴的直线，那么我们无论采用任何下注策略（gambling strategy ），其结果都是无法打败这个系统。\n\n当然这还是在公平赌博的情况下，在区块链市场中，交易所是要收取手续费的，就像赌博中庄家要抽头一样，赢的概率是不足50%的。\n\n所以呢，在区块链市场上追涨杀跌，这个博弈中的鞅，是一条单调递减函数，俗称下鞅。\n\n在这样的博弈环境下，失败是一个必然的结果，只是发生的迟早而已。\n\n----\n除了鞅这个理论之外，博弈论中还有一个更直接概念叫做：\n>“赌徒之殇”（gambler's ruin)\n\n它可以解释为什么即使是公平的赌博，那些长久赌博的人也会倾家荡产。\n\n赌徒之殇的人话版是：赌资决定胜率，即使在55开的赌局中，面对赌资是你无限倍的对手，你获胜的概率无限趋近与零。\n\n没有人可以通过追涨杀跌，把市场上所有人的比特币都赚光的吧。\n\n这就解释了为什么十赌九输。赌场即使开出玩家优势的赌局，例如获胜概率为：赌场(胜率49%):赌徒(胜率51%)，赌场也可以稳赚不赔，长盛不衰。\n\n因为你永远不可能赢光赌场的钱。\n\n----\n基于以上这些事实，我们就可以得出文章一开始给出的结论了：\n>**在区块链世界里追涨杀跌的行为，和赌博无异，而且最终必然以亏光本金为结束。**\n\n查理芒格有一句名言：“要是我知道我会死在哪里就好了，这样我永远都不会去那个地方。”\n\n在人的一生中，很多东西一开始本可以规避：比如一段康庄的歧路，一个貌似灿烂的机会，比如一个虚妄的方向……\n\n别当韭菜！",
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      "body": "写的很好哟😄",
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      "body": "说得好。尤其是不后悔那段。我理解的是要为自己的选择承担后果。后悔就是心里拒绝为自己的选择承担后果。",
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