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      "body": "老有朋友问我：“对大盘明天怎么看？某某股明天怎么走？”做短期预测实在是太难了，有点像赌博，我更乐意从一个较长时间周期去判断股价涨跌，这样确定性更高一些，我觉得作为一个长线投资者完全没有必要根据大盘的短期涨跌来确定一只个股的买卖。回看指数年K线图，沪深300指数2009年7月收盘3734点，2017年7月7日收盘3655点，在这8年指数基本没什么变化，但就在这段时间好的股票如大华股份、歌尔声学、东方雨虹、生物股份、恒瑞医药等独立指数走出了波澜壮阔的上涨行情，涨幅从522%到1894%不等，如果持有8年不动，投资年化收益率从26%到45%不等。对于很多从事职业投资追求收益最大化的人来说，每年30%的收益可能根本不屑一顾，但是我想我们当中的很多人包括我自己在内，在正常工作之余投资股票的目的主要是实现家庭资产保值增值，如果每年能有20%~30%的收益就感觉很不错了。那么我们如何来寻找长线相对确定的投资机会呢？\n\n股票投资最大的问题就是不确定性，我们只能在不确定性中寻找确定性，对长线投资者来说我觉得确定性就是你看到你所投资的企业净利润每年都会持续不断增长，从每年赚几千万到几亿仍甚百亿。我认为业绩持续增长才是股价上涨的最大驱动力，长期来看股价涨幅和企业净利润增幅正相关，如2010年上市的老板电器，上市首日开盘价35.1元（后复权），市值56.2亿，上市当年净利润1.3亿元。老板电器上市以来一直依靠内生增长，从来没有定向增发过，目前股价246元（后复权），市值398亿，2016年净利润为12亿元。6~7年的时间，股价上涨了7倍，净利润增长了9倍。因为股价的波动性，股价涨幅和净利润增幅并不完全对应，但是几乎可以确定的是只要企业净利润持续增长股价肯定会上涨，只是早涨晚涨、涨多涨少的问题，所以我觉得长期投资致胜的关键就是找到能够持续赚钱的企业。那么我们怎么知道企业的净利润会大概率持续增长呢？我想最简单的方法就是看上市公司的股权激励。股权激励是企业为了激励和留住核心人才，而推行的一种长期激励机制。有条件的给予激励对象部分股东权益，使其与企业结成利益共同体，从而实现企业的长期目标。先不管股权激励承诺的业绩目标实现的概率有多高，至少反映了企业管理层对未来3~5年发展的目标和预期。作为普通的投资者，我们很难预测上市公司的业绩，从我多年的经验，很多机构的预测也非常不靠谱，即使是上市公司的管理层恐怕也很难精确地知道今年会赚多少钱，明年会赚多少钱，但是作为管理层，他们对公司的经营情况及发展前景应该是最了解的。所以与其盲目瞎猜，不如选择相信并参考一些上市公司的股权激励计划选择合适的长线投资标的。\n\n下面举几个最近一年出台了股权激励计划且股价表现比较强势的个股，简单说明一下如何根据股权激励业绩增长目标赚钱。\n\n 2016年8月，东方雨虹推出了股权激励计划；首次授予日为2016年8月25日，解锁业绩条件：首次授予日所在年度为T年度，以T-1年扣非后净利润为固定基数，在T至T+3年的4个会计年度中，扣非后净利润的增长率分别不低于25%、56%、95%、144%；同时各年度净资产收益率均不低于13.5%。\n\n点评：东方雨虹2015年扣非净利润5.53亿，股权激励承诺的到2019年的扣非净利润为13.5亿，4年净利润复合增速25%， 假定给予25倍市盈率，则2019年合理市值337亿。东方雨虹推出这份股权激励时股价大概在22元附近，市值在194亿附近，在接下来的几个月，东方雨虹持续调整，股价最低下探到20.77元，对应市值183亿。目前东方雨虹37.03元，市值326亿。不论是22元还是21元，如果当时你知道东方雨虹的这份股权激励计划，并且从长线持有几年的角度出发建仓，现在持有不到一年已经赚了超过60%了。\n\n2016年12月，信维通信推出了股权激励计划。各年度业绩考核目标：2017年净利润不低于人民币7.5亿元、2018年净利润不低于人民币12.0亿元、2019年净利润不低于人民币15.6亿元。\n\n点评：信维通信2016年净利润5.3亿，如果股权激励目标能够兑现，3年净利润增长194%，复合增速43%，还是非常快到的。由于市值比较大，给予30倍动态市盈率，2019年合理市值468亿。信维通信2016年12月2日推出股权激励，当时的市值是270亿左右，后来最低下探到240亿左右。如果我们当时知道信维通信的股权激励计划，从买入持有3年预期赚一倍的角度出发，那么现在我们将有大概50%的收益。\n\n2017年1月，亿纬锂能推出了股权激励计划。各年度业绩考核目标为：以2016年主营业务收入为基数，2017年-2020年的主营业务收入增长率分别不低于50%、120%、230%、350%。\n\n点评：亿纬锂能2016年营业收入23.4亿，根据股权激励目标到2020年营业收入将达到105亿，4年复合增速46%。参考最近几年的净利润率，大概在10%，则推测到2020年净利润将达到10.5亿，若给予30倍动态市盈率，则到2020年合理市值315亿。亿纬锂能推出股权激励计划日期是2017年1月6日，当日收盘价14.8元，对应市值126亿，此后几天亿纬锂能还曾下探到13.59元，今年6月2日股价最低为13.72元，最近亿纬锂能持续强势，1个月时间涨幅已经超过50%。如果我们注意到亿纬锂能这份股权激励计划，在14元附近建仓并做好持有4年赚1.5倍的准备，我想现在已经收益颇丰了。\n\n目前出台股权激励计划的公司很多，我们必须要有所取舍，我个人比较喜欢股权激励承诺的净利润复合增速超过25%的公司。当然，根据投资股权激励来寻找长线投资个股也并非没有风险。首先介入时点要合适，如果介入时股价已经充分反映了股权激励未来3~5年的增长预期，一旦系统性风险来临，大跌不可避免。如果股价大幅上涨而股权激励的业绩目标并未兑现，股价也可能会出现大幅下跌。因此，要想长期投资股权激励个股，首先要尽可能在股权激励计划发布第一时间研究分析并决定是否可以介入，其次持股的成本不能太高，要留有足够的安全空间，防止意外事件发生。\n\n转自：投资长线社群",
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