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      "title": "比特幣全面復甦，雲礦合約重新上架， 現在是入手時機嗎?",
      "body": "<center>https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/GMO-mining-report-banner-1068x1068.png</center> <br/>加密貨幣市場開始復甦，筆者見到不少雲礦公司都開始恢復營業，重新售賣合約。筆者接觸加密貨幣，是因為投資了雲挖礦，既然錢已投入，便得花時間去學習及理解這是一樣什麼的東西，自此，我便正正式入了幣圈。所以，我對於雲挖礦算是有一點點研究，不如趁市場復甦，去了解一下現在的環境還是否適合投資雲挖礦。\r\n\r\n市場上雲礦公司都已經歷過熊市洗禮，大家其實已不必太擔心你所投資的公司是不是騙人，因為市場已清走了一堆實力不足及騙子公司，什麼Sun Mining、Coulla很快便已經倒閉不再營業了，現在剩下的，相信可信度是高的。筆者挑選了兩間公司，為大家分析一下，這兩間合約有沒有投資價值。\r\n\r\n<strong>Genesis Mining</strong>\r\n\r\n<center><img class=\" wp-image-2325 aligncenter\" src=\"https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Genesis-Mining.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"950\" height=\"506\" /></center><br/>\r\n\r\n上圖是GM公布的合約，盛惠77美金，比全盛時期其實下降了不少。不過細心留意，它的合約其實只有九個月，如果那麼短的合約，對於回本期的要求便要十分嚴格了。\r\n\r\n<center><img class=\"wp-image-2324 aligncenter\" src=\"https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2.5th-1024x587.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"486\" /></center><br/>\r\n\r\n<center><img class=\" wp-image-2326 aligncenter\" src=\"https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/GM-return.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"876\" height=\"623\" /></center><br/>\r\n\r\n以最低算力去計算，2.5TH，每天可挖得0.00009376BTC，如果假設現在所有東西都不變的話，回本期是約4個月，回報只能說還好吧，至少賺五個月的現金流吧。如果BTC升到10000，回報才比較理想，大約2.5個月回本。不過要留意的是，以上數據是網上計算器估算，眾所周知，GM合約的算力常常都不是盡用，所以大家要打一個八折來看。\r\n\r\n<strong>Hashing 24</strong>\r\n\r\n<center><img class=\"wp-image-2328 aligncenter\" src=\"https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Hashing-24-Plan-1024x605.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"483\" /></center><br/>\r\n\r\nHashing 24推出了兩種一年的合約，一種是有維護費用，而另一種是沒有任何維護費用。如果論風險，絕對是沒維護費用的一種比較低，可惜是，相對地的合約費用其實是十分之貴。下圖是以最低算力100G可挖得到的回報參考，以這個價格，其實要9.3個月才能回本，而且沒有考慮了難度上升，完全不值得購買。\r\n\r\n<center><img class=\"wp-image-2329 aligncenter\" src=\"https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Hashing-24-Return-1024x608.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"839\" height=\"498\" /></center><br/>\r\n\r\n至於另一種合約，算了一下，回本期約七個多月，還算是可以吧。要升到10000USD，才有比較理想的回報。Hashing24維護費用出了名是貴，但算力還是用足，跟網上估算相差不大，所以這個回本期是貼近現實。總結來說，有維護費用的還可以的，不過價格突發波動，合約還是有不低的機率被「打耙」。\r\n\r\n<center><img class=\"size-full wp-image-2327 aligncenter\" src=\"https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/H24-return-with-fee.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"901\" height=\"634\" /></center><br/>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>可以一試，但還看你用什麼資金去玩</strong>\r\n<blockquote><strong>也是那一句: 自有資金買比特幣現貨吧! 雲礦是要配合槓桿的</strong>\n</blockquote>\r\n筆者之前亦都分析過，挖礦投資屬於現金流的投資工具，它最理想的玩法是透過摃捍買入合約，用挖礦產生之現金流覆蓋借貸的還款金期，從而賺取現金流之差額，那就是坊間所說的<strong>被動收入</strong>。Bitcoin投資仍然屬初期，會無故遇上大起大跌，若遇上長時間的大跌，本金因此被套，收回期便會很長，對現金損耗是非常大。\r\n\r\n<strong>你適合挖礦合約嗎</strong><strong>?</strong>\r\n\r\n不是人人都合適投資礦場，在投資前，建議先問自己以下兩個問題:\r\n\r\n<strong>一</strong> <strong>你願意借貸嗎</strong><strong>?</strong>\r\n\r\n上文有寫到，挖礦合約最理想的投入方式是借貸方式，賺取現金流，但你願意借貸去投資嗎? 任何投資沒有必賺的回報，使用借貸意味著有可能負債，那是投資者要有的領悟。\r\n\r\n<strong>二</strong> <strong>你是保守投資者嗎</strong><strong>?</strong>\r\n\r\n投資挖機合約，所面臨的風險不單止是加密貨幣的價格波動風險，還有面對合約生效後一段時間後，難度提升、監管風險及雲礦的營運風險。\r\n\r\n<strong>你說成這樣，還應該投資嗎</strong><strong>?</strong><strong> </strong>面對風險固然是大的，但如果遇上良好時機，回報亦是大的，因為整件事情就是空手套白狼，以財技<strong>賺取被動收入的一個途徑</strong>。\r\n\r\n現時的合約，防守力還是有的，BTC要跌到大約4500USD，才有機會補維護費用。不過有見合約期已經大大縮短，回本期要求理應提高，筆者認為，回本期3個月左右才比較理想，也有足夠防御力。如果大家想了解更多關挖礦的全面分析，可以看看小弟舊作<a href=\"https://ecoinomy.hk/2018/10/01/991/\">「</a>再談比特幣挖礦: 賺取被動收入的工具，惟不能忽略其風險及投資時機」今天說到這裡，下次再有機會跟大家分析其他東西。 <br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href=&#039;Steempress.io&#039;>SteemPress</a > : https://ecoinomy.hk/2019/05/26/2322/ </em><hr/></center>            ",
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      "title": "《虛擬貨幣革命》這是一本預言書，現實世界的未來劇本",
      "body": "<center>https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/getImage.jpg</center> <br/>最近都是筆者的學習時間，除了世界時事，一直很想找時間了解區塊鏈相關的東西。我從前年中開始投資虛擬貨幣，那時的開始都是源於半知半解，更甚的，反而覺得自己是有一股莫名的樂觀情緒驅動。經歷了大牛市，然後迅速冰封。在最段時間，最好的事情是沈澱，想一想之前所投資的，是不是自己所想的好? 是不是自己所想的熱切? 學習是這段時間最需要的事情，有空都會翻看相關的書及課程，證明以前的自己是不是對的。\r\n\r\n <div class=\"pull-left\"><img class=\"wp-image-2285 alignleft\" src=\"https://ecoinomy.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/9789869461375.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"379\" height=\"379\" /></div><br/>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n上月看了《虛擬貨幣革命：區塊鏈科技，物聯網經濟，去中心化金融系統挑戰全球經濟秩序》，趁現在有時間，便來整理一下吧。這是一本非常完整的書籍，在不同方面都有論述到，從貨幣發展、到實際應用、然後未來走向，最後講到改變商業世界。筆者最喜歡是兩個章節，令我感到最印象深刻的。\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n首先是從巴比倫到比特幣——貨幣系統的核心，筆者是讀經濟出身，對經濟問題很感興趣，這個章節是講了貨幣的發展及核心。貨幣最核心最核心的用途，就是「交易」，從古老年代的貝殼、金屬、金銀代幣時代，都是為了解決大家對交易的需要，從而促進了現代商業社會的發展。可是來到了現代，陸續出現了金本位，布列頓森林系統，再現代的債權貨幣。大家日常使用的貨幣，本是天然資源(金、銀、煙草及石頭等等)，演變成人為製造的東西，而且可以隨意製造。當錢是人造時，最開始時，人是知道它的缺點，會慢慢地、保持耐心，不慍不火地製造。可是時間久了，人性的短視，自利為出發點，慢慢把貨幣由「交易」用途，變成了「財富」儲藏用途，中央銀行及銀行系統通力合作，以債生錢(在經濟學上，是貨幣創造)，印出無上限的金錢和財富。用錢再製造錢，賺了錢再借更多的錢，錢便成了愈來愈無價值的東西，而不懂這道理的大眾們，不得以時間換取金錢，工作換回來，很多人因為淪為時間的奴隸，因工作或賺到錢，享到樂，但卻投放了人生大部分的時間於其中，日復一日，星斗轉移，很快便老了，仿佛這是現代基層社會的悲劇吧。\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n其次是最後一章- 虛擬貨幣的未來奇想，那是以一個批判性思考的角度，去想比特幣未來的劇本會是怎樣，當中大約包括\r\n\r\n1)     比特幣成為主流，Alcoin為輔的貨幣系統\r\n\r\n2)     數位美元 – 成為一種跨國使用的私人貨幣\r\n\r\n3)     布列頓森林協議2.0 – 成為中央銀行的中央儲備之一\r\n\r\n4)     比特幣與法定貨幣共存，成為其中一種商品貨幣\r\n\r\n5)     徹底失敗\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n由於比特幣天性通縮，供應會隨時間減少，較低可能是(1)，因為使用度愈高(至少人口增加)，供應量要愈多，不然購買會上升，人們會更傾向不使用。另外，比特幣發展已十年，有一定的基建設施，要突然令它消失的可能性(5)亦不高。在餘下的部分，各有可能，就看比特幣靠近大眾的程度，如果比特幣輔助設施更能融入主流，比如交易速度提升、更便利的轉帳系統或者大型機構的加入，有可能成為一些貨幣疲弱的國家的私人貨幣(2)，如巴西、委內瑞拉及阿根廷等。而比特幣如果發展維持現狀，沒有太多基建的配合，便會演應成(4)，這比較像現在的情況，是一種有投資性質的商品，受制於熱錢的流入。未來會是怎麼發展，筆者有機會再說一下可能性吧。\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\n總結來說，這本書給了我很多的新想法和靈感，各位讀者們有興趣可以看看。\r\n\r\n  <br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href=&#039;Steempress.io&#039;>SteemPress</a > : https://ecoinomy.hk/2019/04/11/2282/ </em><hr/></center>            ",
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