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      "parent_permlink": "japanese",
      "author": "goemon",
      "permlink": "wti-wti-crude-oil-is-it-raising-up-again",
      "title": "WTI原油～反転サイン？　(WTI Crude Oil ~ Is it raising up again?)",
      "body": "おはようさん！\n\n昨日は引けにかけ反発。\n\n一時44ドルを割り込む場面もあったが、44.6ドルで引けている。\n\n\n![ｂｓ.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmePCBgGQbufhWT3QmABVRV4d8SA8ykMRNPJXXBPbWzUbp/%EF%BD%82%EF%BD%93.jpg)\nThe oil price fall down to $44 but it returned and finished at $44.6 last night.\n\n\n5月5日に43.96ドルを付けているが、ちょうどこの日と同値まで下げてきている。\n\nローソク足は下髭の長い十字線を示しており、反転サインにも見えなくもない。\n\nしかし、原油の場合、ここから無慈悲に下げていくことが多々あるため、安易に買いポジションを取る気にはなれない。\n\n\n![ｍ.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmbH5SrArK3Nt6aiHZtyAX9JwEw9seVhqSWUqUu563qUwZ/%EF%BD%8D.jpg)\n\nIt looks like range now.\nI expect that the oil price will further fall down to $40 from this point.\n\n\n\nこれは1時間足チャート。\n\n先週はひたすら下落し続け（矢印）、その後ボックス相場に移行している。\n\n現段階でのシナリオはここから一段の下げがやってくるというものだ。\n\nつまり、しばしのレンジが続いた後、40ドルを目指して下落していく。\n\n\n何度も書いていることだが、再度確認しておこう。\n\n\n![ｎ.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcLDc5d75BbP9he5kxhkFYCXUmX4MYjg2AtTLVtCCZo87/%EF%BD%8E.jpg)\nI would like to confirm that the oil price moves within the channel indicated above chart.\n\n\n現在のシナリオは上記チャートのチャネル内での値動きである。\n\nそして、売りエントリーする場合、上のチャートの破線矢印で示した価格推移を辿った場合に限定している。\n\nもし、このまま下落していく場合、そのまま様子見をして40ドルでの反転上昇を買いエントリーで狙う。\n\n上のチャートを見てもわかる通り、現在の原油価格はチャネルのど真ん中にあり、エントリーは（買いでも売りでも）非常に中途半端なことがわかるだろう。\n\n焦らずじっくりとエントリーチャンスを待つことにしよう。",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "japanese",
      "author": "goemon",
      "permlink": "ny-ny-gold-strong-bullish",
      "title": "NY金~あくまでも買いエントリーを狙う (NY Gold ~ Strong Bullish!)",
      "body": "オッス！\n\n先週の金は1212ドルで引けている。\n\n依然として軟調な地合いが継続中である。\n\nかろうじて1210ドルでサポートされているという状況だ。\n\n週足チャートを見てみよう。\n\n\n![ｇ.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQme2FxKDE2WVkMVmSpmGTpz5B2PXXTUNUQFUsvYDCQosta/%EF%BD%87.jpg)\n\nPlease take a look at dot circles.\nYou find that gold price is supported at this area.\nI assume that it will be very difficult to fall down below this price.\n\n\n\n\n破線〇で示したところを見て欲しい。\n\n現在の価格は2年前からことごとく止められているところである。\n\n従って、ここを下に抜けてくるのは容易ではないだろう。\n\nかなりのエネルギーを要するはずだ。\n\nちなみに、2016年に一度だけ1200ドルを大きく下に抜けているところがあるが、これはアメリカの大統領選においてトランプが当選した後の値動きである。\n\nこの時はトランプ当選確定の報で急進したものの、その後急落するという市場が想定していなかった値動きだった。\n\nこのような大きなファンダメンタルズ的な燃料が投下されない限り、現在の価格ラインを割り込むのは難しいと考えている。\n\n従って、そろそろ上昇転換しても良い頃合いだろう。\n\n\n\nこれは4時間足チャート。\n\n上記のような価格推移を辿るならば、買いエントリーしていく予定である。\n\nポイントは★（星印）と⇒（矢印）のところ。\n\nこれらのライン近辺での押し目を買っていくということになる。\n\n上記以外の価格推移を辿った場合は、当然見送り。\n\nあくまでも、中・長期的には金価格は上昇するということ。\n\nさらに、下値余地はそれほど残されていないという前提で、エントリータイミングを考えている。\n\n以上！",
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      "parent_permlink": "japanese",
      "author": "goemon",
      "permlink": "wti-40-wti-expecting-falling-down-to-usd40",
      "title": "WTI原油~ボトムは40ドル　（WTI ~ Expecting falling down to $40)",
      "body": "おはようさん！\n\n先週は44.45ドルで引けている。\n\n原油は下落トレンドが継続中だが、現在の関心事は一体どこまで下落するのかということだと思う。\n\n今後の価格推移については昨日記事としてアップしてあるので、そちらを参照いただきたい。\n\n\n原油の値動きにはある程度の法則性があるのだが、その一つに『直近の下落スピードが似通っている』というのがある。\n\nまずは以下のチャートを見て欲しい。\n\n\n\n![ｖ.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRJpsdNCDVSH5RC8C7oYk1qb2yL92tJeg66wtarbfpZgy/%EF%BD%96.jpg)\nPlease take a look at dot lines.\nThese are all same inclination.\nThe oil price tends to fall with same inclination.\n\n\n\n\n特に注目して欲しいのは、破線である。\n\nこれは、現在のチャネル内における下落部分のローソク足をなぞったラインだ。\n\nチャート内には3本の破線を引いてあるが、これらは全て同じ傾きを持った破線である。\n\nつまり、下落スピードがほぼ同じということ。\n\n従って、今週も下落トレンドが継続した場合、チャネル下限とのクロスポイントが想定される反発点となる。\n\nちなみに、ここはおよそ40ドルであり、心理的に意識される価格とも一致するため、非常に信憑性のある数値だ。\n\nつまり、現段階で想定されるボトムは40ドルで良いだろう。\n\n現在の原油価格が44.45ドルということは、ここから売りエントリーした場合、約4.5ドルが利益の期待値となる。\n\n俺のルールの一つに、『1回当たりのトレードに対する利益期待値の最低ラインは5ドル以上』というのがあるが、残念ながらこのルールには適合していない（しかし、ここから戻りを見せれば話は異なってくる）。\n\nしかし、ここまでの説明での想定は、ここから下落した場合である。\n\n本日、開場後、上昇に転じチャネル上限で反転下落するようなら、そこは積極的にエントリーしたいと思っている。\n\n取り急ぎ今朝は以上。",
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      "title": "WTI原油~戻り売り戦略　（WTI Crude Oil ~ Strategy to sell crude oil)",
      "body": "おはようさん！\n\n現在の原油は完全に下落トレンド。\n\n\nということで、ここから戻り売りでエントリーしていく場合の戦略について具体的に説明しよう。\n\nまずは下のチャートを見て欲しい。\n\n\n\nこれは昨日の記事から転用したものである。\n\nまずは上のチャートで示した戻りがあることが前提である。\n\nおよそ45.5ドル近辺になるが、ここまでの戻りがない限りエントリーする気はない。\n\n\n次にエグジットポイントについて。\n\n\n\n上の日足チャートで示してあるトレンドライン下限にタッチしたポイント（矢印）がエグジットのタイミングとしては最も理想的だ。\n\n下落の勢いによるが、およそ40.2~40.5ドルとなるだろう。\n\nちなみに、このトレンドラインはそれなりにサポートして機能しているはずなので、40ドル近辺まで下落した場合は、ほぼ確実に戻りがあるポイントとして考えてよい。\n\nもし上記したような値動きをするならば、リスクテイクする根拠としては十分である。\n\n\n\n\nさらに、俺が1回のトレードで基準としている利確幅である5ドルもクリアだ。\n\nちなみに、最近の原油関連のニュースでは「40ドルまでの下落はほぼ確実」ということも耳にする（この手のニュースを真に受けてはいけないが（笑））。\n\nただ、エグジットポイントとして上で説明した原油価格がほぼ40ドルと一致している点は興味深いな。\n\n以上、参考まで。",
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