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      "title": "Bitcoin holds $24K as USD taps 3-week lows on eurozone inflation report",
      "body": "Estimates for July inflation across the euro area make for grim reading at 8.9%, with the U.S. dollar rebounding.\n\n![717_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDcvZGVjYmQzODgtNDcxOC00YmYwLWIwNTEtMTc2NjRiMzJjZGQ3LmpwZw==.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWjcJnxpp6T83ZBR5fQGAJTEu2ok53PidtLN16eL4izkq/717_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDcvZGVjYmQzODgtNDcxOC00YmYwLWIwNTEtMTc2NjRiMzJjZGQ3LmpwZw==.jpg)\nBitcoin (BTC) sought to pin $24,000 as support before the July 29 Wall Street open as fresh inflation data sparked worries for the euro.\n\n![e4440f12-2adb-43ee-90a9-d29d23226aa5.webp](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmc8d9p9goY3VWhhjgxjSYGdTSiZJ39uQLW4ERwoN8msoi/e4440f12-2adb-43ee-90a9-d29d23226aa5.webp)\nEurozone inflation estimate shows no peak\nData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD maintaining most of its latest gains after spiking to nearly $24,500 overnight. \n\nThe day’s macro action delivered painful news for the European Economic Area (EEA), as the latest estimates for euro inflation came in at 8.9% for July — still climbing from June’s 8.6%.\n\n“Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in July (39.7%, compared with 42.0% in June), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (9.8%, compared with 8.9% in June), non-energy industrial goods (4.5%, compared with 4.3% in June) and services (3.7%, compared with 3.4% in June),” an accompanying report compiled by Eurostat read.\n\nThe data provided a curious contrast in some European Union member states, where growth outperformed expectations despite the highest inflation figures in the history of the euro’s existence. This led some commentators to suspect that all was not what it seemed.\n\nTamay Ozgokmen @twitter\n@TOzgokmen\n\n800B Euro spending fund papering over sad realities.\nHolger Zschaepitz\n@Schuldensuehner\nGood Morning from #Italy where the economy posted surprisingly strong growth. GDP grew 1% in Q2 2022 QoQ, tops estimates of 0.3% after 0.1% in Q1. The reopening of the economy following the pandemic and the deployment of European Union recovery funds buoyed activity.\n![FY0fJL7XoAA-0I-.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX2CCDvx2mmYfm4MeMJMKDqvhWbCDEDMSSoeQssyL7TtV/FY0fJL7XoAA-0I-.png)\n\nThe European Quandary, nonetheless, buoyed the United States dollar, which had been retreating from its latest two-decade highs against a basket of trading partner currencies through July.\n\nThe U.S. dollar index (DXY) touched 105.54 on the day, its lowest reading since July 5, before rebounding to near 106 at the time of writing. \n\nA key inverse correlation for crypto markets, additional DXY advances could signal fresh pressure on BTC price action.\n\n“DXY just dropped to the previous high now support and seems to be holding. A possible bounce here to 107, 108 before further drop,” popular trading account Mikybull Crypto predicted in a fresh Twitter update, adding that this scenario would entail a pullback to $22,800 for BTC/USD.\n\n![2b137251-8379-4b48-b12e-85b48884a036.webp](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaKX73CFS54PrNu52Ncsqntk7FZboowtr8AcVRj9YQ1rN/2b137251-8379-4b48-b12e-85b48884a036.webp)\n\nIn an arguably unexpected bullish turn, meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of derivatives platform BitMEX, implied that a weaker dollar was now imminent.\n\nRelated: Bitcoin bull run ‘getting interesting’ as BTC price hits 6-week high\n\nFollowing the Federal Reserve’s latest key rate hike, Hayes stated that the central bank’s return to accommodative monetary policy and more neutral rates had now begun.\n\nFed Chair Jerome Powell, he wrote on July 28, would not be increasing hikes any longer, something he called the “Powell pivot.”\n\nThe theory, as Cointelegraph recently reported, revolves around the Fed having little room left to maneuver thanks to rate hikes increasing the likelihood of a deeper recession in the U.S. economy.\n\nThe latest GDP data released this week had already placed the U.S. in a technical recession thanks to two straight quarters of negative numbers.\n\nThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n\nSource: COINTELEGRAPH",
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      "author": "fitimi",
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      "title": "3 Bitcoin trading behaviors hint that BTC’s rebound to $24K is a ‘fakeout’",
      "body": "BTC price surged above a key resistance cluster, but its market structure and technical analysis suggest the move is just another trap.\n\n![717_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDcvYzYyOTdlMmEtMzE2ZC00ZTM0LWFiNDgtZjg3YTI2NWM0NmIwLmpwZw==.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdtpR5SqYFLNHNMubpNHBqURvkau3qWLasRDdXDTg43qG/717_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjItMDcvYzYyOTdlMmEtMzE2ZC00ZTM0LWFiNDgtZjg3YTI2NWM0NmIwLmpwZw==.jpg)\n\n\nBitcoin (BTC) price rallied toward $24,200 on July 28 after a near-10.5% surge that began a day earlier.\n\nThe gains appeared after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled intentions to slow down the Fed's prevailing tightening spree. This prompted some Bitcoin analysts to predict short-term upside continuation, with pseudonymous analyst CryptoHamster seeing BTC at $26,000 next.\n\n\nCryptoHamster #twitter\n@CryptoHamsterIO\n\nIt seems that the downside breakout was a false one, and the bullish flag has been validated. Let's see how fast $BTC can reach those targets. \n#bitcoin $BTCUSD $ETH $ETHUSD #ビットコイン #биткойн #比特币\n![FYuQ4ZeaUAEjO2Z.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVmVYGtH9CaLgHoS3fkrXSd4BFfoYTyWVdyVZfr1Xm2vk/FYuQ4ZeaUAEjO2Z.jpg)\n\nCryptoHamster #twitter\n@CryptoHamsterIO\nIt seems like the hope for a nice long is nearly gone. That candle has to be a false breakout followed by a fast recovery to keep a bullish flag valid.\n#bitcoin $BTC $BTCUSD $ETH $ETHUSD #ビットコイン #биткойн #比特币\n![FYjZUrvaIAE2bpN.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQG2oMKacREANVCkBFLJUSwwCFn1NXmuuoAnKUdphMqWn/FYjZUrvaIAE2bpN.jpg)\n\n\nBut BTC's potential to recover entirely from its ongoing bearish slumber appears low for at least three key reasons.\n\nBitcoin bulls have been duped before\nBitcoin established its record high of $69,000 in November 2022. Since then, the cryptocurrency has declined by more than 60% while undergoing several mini pumps on its way down. \n\nOn the daily chart, Bitcoin has rebounded at least five times since November 2021, securing 23%-to-40% gains on each recovery. Nonetheless, it has continued its correction every time after forming a local price top around its exponential moving averages (EMA) and then falling to new yearly lows.\n\n\n![4b5cbedf-6427-4bc0-bb88-0ae7f59dd83a.webp](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbc8f4nTFjJbq6GngCvue1rtxBwUtwcMNfgL4pcAmLyCu/4b5cbedf-6427-4bc0-bb88-0ae7f59dd83a.webp)\n\nBTC/USD daily price chart featuring 'fakeouts.' Source: TradingView\n\n\nThis time looks no different, with Bitcoin facing a bullish rejection in June and recovering nearly 17% a month later. Notably, BTC price faces interim resistance in its 50-day EMA (the red wave) at around $23,150, with a breakout clearing its way toward $27,000, coinciding with the 100-day EMA (black).\n\nAt $27,000, the price would still form a lower high compared to the previous local tops. So, that technically raises the possibility of another bearish continuation move.\n\nHigh selling, low buying volume\nInterestingly, the volume behavior during the ongoing Bitcoin correction shows a greater interest in selling the coin at local tops.\n\nThe daily chart below illustrates this by highlighting the volume readings during downtrends and uptrends since November 2021. For instance, the last two big price declines in May and June coincided with a sharp increase in selling volumes.\n\n\n![b846da51-3327-4002-b7dc-90544515219e.webp](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYVH8pq18728s427dYgCyoiqwQYYzaASsgmuRBavmThqr/b846da51-3327-4002-b7dc-90544515219e.webp)\n\nIn comparison, the follow-up rebounds to those price declines accompanied modest to lower trading volumes. The ongoing volume behavior looks the same, peaking during the downtrend and dropping as the price recovers.\n\nThis suggests a weakening upside momentum, which may lead to another price correction.\n\nBTC to equities correlation flips back to positive\nBitcoin is once again tailing stock market trends despite briefly decoupling from them in early July.\n\nFor instance, on July 28, the day-to-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite stood near 0.66. That includes declines in both markets after the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) plunged for a second consecutive quarter.\n\n\n![bd053335-5661-4f84-9aeb-8b00d79e6109.webp](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXH1GEzfcH6MWhgBmUCg79AZEV4Dbrmd9cmTKMaeUJtzr/bd053335-5661-4f84-9aeb-8b00d79e6109.webp)\n\nThat officially confirms that the U.S. has entered a “technical recession,” which could weigh negatively on the stock market. Therefore, Bitcoin's downside prospects appear high if its positive correlation with the stock market continues.\n\nThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n\nSOURCE: COINTELEGRAPH.COM",
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      "body": "The 'two quarters' standard is simple, but the definition by the National Bureau of Economic Research gives policymakers much-needed wiggle room. For bitcoin, the semantics don't matter.\n\n![23R2IEXRQRHDNCZN5WLGMUJI4U.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYuNxU9CpPe7sjBaqvWApbgtfNEZSk4ATNCncCxxf2d2a/23R2IEXRQRHDNCZN5WLGMUJI4U.jpg)\n\nRecession – or the \"R word\" as politicians call it – pops up in everybody’s conversations these days, and with good reason.\n\nToday’s gross domestic product report showed that the U.S. economy shrank for a second consecutive quarter, and if you paid close attention in macroeconomics class, you’ll likely start panicking.\nMany students of the economy learn at some point that “two straight quarters of declines” is tantamount to the definition of a recession. But it depends on who’s being asked. And these days, if you listen to policy makers, they’re pointing to an altogether different standard.\n\nThe National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which most analysts and U.S. officials defer to when determining the timing of economic cycles, says that a recession is defined by more than just GDP.\nA recession is “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months,” according to the NBER. The inherent subjectivity gives policy makers, including the Federal Reserve, much-needed wiggle room – very different from the easy-to-classify “two quarters” definition.\n“It was simple to understand, it was black and white,” said David Wessel, senior fellow in economic studies at the \nBrookings Institution and former Wall Street Journal economics editor. “The NBER definition is kind of mushy, for good reason, because there are lots of factors.”\nThe NBER was created in 1978, and going back in history, “two consecutive quarters of GDP decline” was the only definition that existed, Wessel said.\n\nGDP could indicate how the economy is doing, but numbers often get revised, with the average revision over time being 1.5%. This is why the NBER’s approach could provide a more useful assessment, even though, most of the time, the “two quarters” standard still works.\n“The discrepancy between the output side and the income side is particularly wide in the first quarter of this year, and that leads some people to think that GDP is likely to be revised and may not actually be negative in the first quarter,” Wessel said.\n\nTwo assistant secretaries for the U.S. Treasury Department wrote a lengthy web post this week laying out what they described as “considerable evidence” that the “economy is not currently in a recession,” even if GDP contracted for two straight quarters.\n\nA Fox News correspondent asked a White House spokesperson this week why President Joe Biden’s administration was “trying to redefine ‘recession’” when “we all understand a recession to be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.” (“That’s not the definition,” the spokesperson said.)\nSimilarly, at a press conference this week, a reporter asked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he would consider the U.S. economy to be in a recession if GDP declined in the second quarter.\n\n“The Fed doesn’t make a judgment on that,” Powell said. “Though, if you think about what a recession really is, it’s a broad-based decline across many industries that sustain for more than a couple of months and there are a bunch of specific tests in it. And this just doesn't seem like that.”\nTreasury Secretary Janet Yellen earlier on Thursday reiterated Powell’s point, saying that a “semantic battle” about whether the country is in a recession should be “avoided,” and that a recession is a “broad-based weakening of the economy,” and “that is not what we’re seeing right now.”\n\nhttps://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2022-07/1ccc2330-4d0d-4e8f-89f4-295ed00aac8a.png\n\nWhat does this mean for bitcoin?\nFor traders of cryptocurrencies, and specifically bitcoin, the question is: Does it even matter at this point if the U.S. is in a recession?\nThe answer is most likely no.\n“We're slowly learning that bitcoin is not a ’store of value’ but rather a ‘store of excess value,’\" said Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at the digital-asset manager Arca Funds. “Whether or not we are in a recession is irrelevant.”\nNegative wealth fueled by declining business confidence and spending, as well as business revenues results in less demand for bitcoin, Dorman said, but from a structural standpoint, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is unaffected.\n\n“Bitcoin is nothing more than a call option on a future where bitcoin is used as an actual currency in the face of declining confidence in fiat,” he said. ”As a result, bitcoin's price is simply a reflection of whether or not that probability increases or decreases, and from that standpoint, a recession could in theory increase the probability of investors looking for an alternative to government fiat.” Fiat is a term many crypto analysts use to describe government-issued cash that’s not backed by any physical commodities like gold.\nGiven that most markets, including the cryptocurrency markets, have already suffered major losses this year due to macroeconomic uncertainty, it remains to be seen whether calling this period a “recession” or leaving it without a label would matter.\n\n“I don’t care for a recession,” said Bob Iacchino, chief strategist at Path Trading Partners and co-portfolio manager at Stock Think Tank. “You're just naming a period and naming an economic period, but I don't care if you name it. People are either hurting or not.”\n\nBitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies have rallied since Powell’s dovish press conference on Wednesday and Thursday’s GDP number. Bitcoin was changing hands above $24,000 late Thursday, up 8% over the past 24 hours.\n“The risk markets rally may be prematurally pricing in a potential slowdown in rate increases in reaction to the negative GDP print,” said Paul Eisma, head of trading at XBTO Group.\n\n“We are in a data driven environment, so any economic numbers that hint at a slowdown in demand and growth, or easing of inflation, inflation expectations will be supportive of risk assets-including bitcoin, crypto.”\nCompared with all that, the “R” word might just be a distraction.\n\nSOURCE:  https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/28/what-is-a-recession-and-does-bitcoin-care/",
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