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      "memo": "Dear @cryptolaidlaw, I hope you don't mind this little memo. I would like to introduce you to new \"LEARN AND EARN\" initiative which I came up together with @hardaeborla. Check out my latest post and hopefully you will enjoy our new idea. Obviously I would appreciate every resteem and your feedback. I read all comments. Yours, Piotr // LINK: https://steemit.com/hive-175254/@crypto.piotr/learn-and-earn-our-project-hope-new-awesome-initiative"
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      "permlink": "dow-jones-fractal-the-spectre-of-1929",
      "title": "Dow Jones Fractal: The Spectre of 1929",
      "body": "![2020.02.20 Dow Jones fractal Chart 1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPHUJpEbHornkdqQBnyKcoyDdLGLUvwGrSx6MLC8dNA9f/2020.02.20%20Dow%20Jones%20fractal%20Chart%201.png)\nChart 1. Dow Jones 1917–1932, weekly bars\n\n![2020.02.20 Dow Jones fractal Chart 2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYqfb2o7M71KZgbpymjfaznT6MyFfRWUaQA4qvVNsffoL/2020.02.20%20Dow%20Jones%20fractal%20Chart%202.png)\nChart 2. Dow Jones 2000–present, monthly bars\n\nCould history be about to repeat itself? The two charts above show the development of an interesting fractal on the Dow Jones chart.\n\nIn Chart 1, two structures are highlighted: the first is a corrective pattern (marked ABC) between 1917 and 1921; the second is the frenzied rise that preceded the Great Crash of 1929.\n\nChart 2 shows similar structures overlaid on the chart from 2000 to present: the major corrective pattern between 2000 and 2009, followed by the bull cycle that began thereafter. Somewhat ominously, the rate of increase in price appears to be speeding up, similar to in the run up to the 1929 crash.\n\nA blow-off top, parabolic… Call it whatever you want to call it but this bull cycle may still have room to run. However, the similarity in the two structures suggests there is the possibility for something nasty to follow. It’s an interesting scenario to bear in mind in the context of this year’s bloody battle that will determine the outcome of a crucial US election.\n\nStay safe.",
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      "permlink": "the-stars-look-to-be-aligning-for-an-equities-melt-up-in-the-second-half-of-2019",
      "title": "The stars look to be aligning for an equities melt up in the second half of 2019",
      "body": "This is a follow on from my previous post outlining the possibility of a fractal on the SP500 chart whereby the terminal phase of the uptrend that began with the bottom at 2347 at the end of last year is following the same pattern as the uptrend itself. Since then, we have seen a shallow correction back to the 200DMA, which marked the end of the first wave of the terminal phase. My current count now has us in wave one of three, as shown in Chart 1.\n\n<center>\n ![2019.07.19 Chart 1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUvsy3gpJoUtx9YPaWhPDQzhF4e3aAhMsUsxoEYTm7tWB/2019.07.19%20Chart%201.png)\n*Chart 1. SPX weekly.*\n</center>\n\nOn a lower time frame (Chart 2 below), we can see what looks to be an ending diagonal completing wave one of three, which suggests a minor correction, perhaps down to the low 2900s and testing the 200MA on the H1 chart as dynamic resistance, before wave three of three begins.\n \n<center>\n![2019.07.19 Chart 2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYxnM9KPezC8nPvVW9hwVYNv7N4mb149BVHpmBgUkTSv6/2019.07.19%20Chart%202.png)\n*Chart 2. SPX H1.*\n</center>\n\nAll in all, the stars look to be aligning for an uptrend in equities that could run well into 2020 with the SP500 topping out around the 4000 mark. That would mark the end of the larger uptrend that began in 2009 and the beginning of a significant correction.",
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      "author": "steemitboard",
      "permlink": "steemitboard-notify-cryptolaidlaw-20190524t141650000z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Congratulations @cryptolaidlaw! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@cryptolaidlaw/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@cryptolaidlaw) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](http://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=cryptolaidlaw)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "permlink": "s-and-p-500-a-bullish-outlook-into-2020",
      "title": "S&P 500: A bullish outlook into 2020",
      "body": "This post presents a potential Elliot wave count to consider for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). It suggests the best of this late-cycle bull market may lie ahead, topping out in 2020.\t\n\n# The bigger picture\nFirstly, let’s take a look at the monthly chart (Chart 1). The main idea here is that the period between the top around the turn of the new millennium and the low following the 2008 crash is part of a larger complex correction, labelled WXY. From this point, we see the start of a new impulse wave that takes us to where we are today. Wave 1 of this impulse takes us to the 1370 high in May 2011, wave 2 to the 1075 low in October that year, wave 3 to the top around 2130 in July 2015, wave 4 to the low around 1815 in February the following year and wave 5 to the top around 2870 at the start of 2018. Why not count wave 5 all the way up to the high of 2940 in September 2018? The answer lies in the daily chart.\n\n<center>\n[![2019.05.03 Chart 1 SPX Monthly.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdd3eVgWqfQBuJb2BG5fdFzS8eYcsp9d3h1qmFeo59QLx/2019.05.03%20Chart%201%20SPX%20Monthly.png)\n*Chart 1. SPX monthly. (click to enlarge)*](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdd3eVgWqfQBuJb2BG5fdFzS8eYcsp9d3h1qmFeo59QLx/2019.05.03%20Chart%201%20SPX%20Monthly.png)\n</center>\n\n\n# Fractals\nIf we accept the September 2018 high as the top of wave 5 on the monthly chart, we can label the whole year 2018 as corrective. This corrective pattern and the ensuing impulse wave taking us to our present high of 2950 bear a striking resemblance to the large pattern analysed above on the monthly chart. In short, we have a potential fractal. A possible path for the rest of this impulse up is shown on the daily chart below (Chart 2).\n\n<center>\n[![2019.05.03 Chart 2 SPX Daily.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma6q1eDorEa5zwXJREXuALcEPXdiXYhZWbs7m9baoGCPw/2019.05.03%20Chart%202%20SPX%20Daily.png)\n*Chart 2. SPX daily. (click to enlarge)*](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma6q1eDorEa5zwXJREXuALcEPXdiXYhZWbs7m9baoGCPw/2019.05.03%20Chart%202%20SPX%20Daily.png)\n</center>\n\nThis would suggest that the best of the final phase of this bull market may lie ahead and that the SPX has the potential to break 3500 in an uptrend extending into 2020 before any sizable correction occurs. \n\n---\n*Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. Nothing in this post should be taken as financial advice. All content is provided for information purposes only.*\n*All text and charts copyright @cryptolaidlaw 2019. All rights reserved.*",
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      "permlink": "s-and-p-500-a-bullish-outlook-into-2020",
      "title": "S&P 500: A bullish outlook into 2020",
      "body": "This post presents a potential Elliot wave count to consider for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). It suggests the best of this late-cycle bull market may lie ahead, topping out in 2020.\t\n\n# The bigger picture\nFirstly, let’s take a look at the monthly chart (Chart 1). The main idea here is that the period between the top around the turn of the new millennium and the low following the 2008 crash is part of a larger complex correction, labelled WXY. From this point, we see the start of a new impulse wave that takes us to where we are today. Wave 1 of this impulse takes us to the 1370 high in May 2011, wave 2 to the 1075 low in October that year, wave 3 to the top around 2130 in July 2015, wave 4 to the low around 1815 in February the following year and wave 5 to the top around 2870 at the start of 2018. Why not count wave 5 all the way up to the high of 2940 in September 2018? The answer lies in the daily chart.\n\n<center>\n[![2019.05.03 Chart 1 SPX Monthly.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdd3eVgWqfQBuJb2BG5fdFzS8eYcsp9d3h1qmFeo59QLx/2019.05.03%20Chart%201%20SPX%20Monthly.png)\n*Chart 1. SPX monthly. (click to enlarge)*](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdd3eVgWqfQBuJb2BG5fdFzS8eYcsp9d3h1qmFeo59QLx/2019.05.03%20Chart%201%20SPX%20Monthly.png)\n</center>\n\n\n# Fractals\nIf we accept the September 2018 high as the top of wave 5 on the monthly chart, we can label the whole year 2018 as corrective. This corrective pattern and the ensuing impulse wave taking us to our present high of 2950 bear a striking resemblance to the large pattern analysed above on the monthly chart. In short, we have a potential fractal. A possible path for the rest of this impulse up is shown on the daily chart below (Chart 2).\n\n<center>\n[![2019.05.03 Chart 2 SPX Daily.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma6q1eDorEa5zwXJREXuALcEPXdiXYhZWbs7m9baoGCPw/2019.05.03%20Chart%202%20SPX%20Daily.png)\n*Chart 2. SPX daily. (click to enlarge)*](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma6q1eDorEa5zwXJREXuALcEPXdiXYhZWbs7m9baoGCPw/2019.05.03%20Chart%202%20SPX%20Daily.png)\n</center>\n\nThis would suggest that the best of the final phase of this bull market may lie ahead and that the SPX has the potential to break 3500 in an uptrend extending into 2020 before any sizable correction occurs. \n\n---\n*Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. Nothing in this post should be taken as financial advice. All content is provided for information purposes only.*\n*All text and charts copyright @cryptolaidlaw 2019. All rights reserved.*",
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      "title": "S&P 500: A bullish outlook into 2020",
      "body": "This post presents a potential Elliot wave count to consider for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). It suggests the best of this late-cycle bull market may lie ahead, topping out in 2020.\t\n\n# The bigger picture\nFirstly, let’s take a look at the monthly chart (Chart 1). The main idea here is that the period between the top around the turn of the new millennium and the low following the 2008 crash is part of a larger complex correction, labelled WXY. From this point, we see the start of a new impulse wave that takes us to where we are today. Wave 1 of this impulse takes us to the 1370 high in May 2011, wave 2 to the 1075 low in October that year, wave 3 to the top around 2130 in July 2015, wave 4 to the low around 1815 in February the following year and wave 5 to the top around 2870 at the start of 2018. Why not count wave 5 all the way up to the high of 2940 in September 2018? The answer lies in the daily chart.\n\n<center>\n[![2019.05.03 Chart 1 SPX Monthly.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdd3eVgWqfQBuJb2BG5fdFzS8eYcsp9d3h1qmFeo59QLx/2019.05.03%20Chart%201%20SPX%20Monthly.png)\n*Chart 1. SPX monthly. (click to enlarge)*](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdd3eVgWqfQBuJb2BG5fdFzS8eYcsp9d3h1qmFeo59QLx/2019.05.03%20Chart%201%20SPX%20Monthly.png)\n</center>\n\n\n# Fractals\nIf we accept the September 2018 high as the top of wave 5 on the monthly chart, we can label the whole year 2018 as corrective. This corrective pattern and the ensuing impulse wave taking us to our present high of 2950 bear a striking resemblance to the large pattern analysed above on the monthly chart. In short, we have a potential fractal. A possible path for the rest of this impulse up is shown on the daily chart below (Chart 2).\n\n<center>\n[![2019.05.03 Chart 2 SPX Daily.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma6q1eDorEa5zwXJREXuALcEPXdiXYhZWbs7m9baoGCPw/2019.05.03%20Chart%202%20SPX%20Daily.png)\n*Chart 2. SPX daily. (click to enlarge)*](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma6q1eDorEa5zwXJREXuALcEPXdiXYhZWbs7m9baoGCPw/2019.05.03%20Chart%202%20SPX%20Daily.png)\n</center>\n\nThis would suggest that the best of the final phase of this bull market may lie ahead and that the SPX has the potential to break 3500 in an uptrend extending into 2020 before any sizable correction occurs. \n\n---\n*Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. Nothing in this post should be taken as financial advice. All content is provided for information purposes only.*\n*All text and charts copyright @cryptolaidlaw 2019. All rights reserved.*",
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      "permlink": "ethereum-classic-etc-a-long-term-outlook",
      "title": "Ethereum classic (ETC): a long-term outlook",
      "body": "[![2018.11.02 Ethereum classic chart.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYJRHvzHHx5DT7qCwPFcES69URNpiTiPM4cDtntLu8aqo/2018.11.02%20Ethereum%20classic%20chart.png)Ethereum classic (ETC) daily chart showing long-term outlook (click to enlarge)](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYJRHvzHHx5DT7qCwPFcES69URNpiTiPM4cDtntLu8aqo/2018.11.02%20Ethereum%20classic%20chart.png)\n\n# Long-term wavecount\nThe long-term wavecount for ETC is pretty clear and marked in red on the chart. At cycle level, the top of the first wave (cycle wave I) occurs around USD 2.9 in August 2016, followed by a correction to around USD 0.74 (cycle wave II). There is then a fine example of a third impulse wave (cycle wave III) that takes price to its all-time high of USD 47 in January 2018 before retreating into cycle wave IV. The question, then, is where will wave IV bottom and how high might wave V go.\n\nThe normal Elliott guideline is that wave four should end in the region of wave four of the previous degree of trend (primary wave 4 marked in green on the chart). This gives a landing zone of 23.8–8.7 USD. With price currently struggling to hold 9 USD, it really is hanging by a thread. If price breaks this floor, expect a sharp action to the downside. Moreover, while there is some bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart (marked in red), with a period of 20 bars it is relatively weak (zooming in to the 2H time frame, we can actually start to see some bearish divergence).\n\n# Support zones\nThe next major support zone is clearly visible (marked in yellow)on the daily chart at 7.5–5.7 USD, with a band of strong support at 6.5–6.7 USD on the weekly chart. Should this support fail, there is a huge gap down to the next major support zone around 2.5–2.9 USD (again with strong support on the weekly chart around 2.6 USD). In the very worst-case scenario, price could go as low as 1.8 USD before wave failure occurs.\n\n# Price targets\nHaving established the major support zones for the bottom of cycle wave IV, the question arises of what to expect from a hypothetical cycle wave V. The blue box in the top-right of the chart is constructed taking the percentage increase of primary wave 3 (approximately 2,000 percent) and projecting this from the Fibonacci confluence zone at the top of primary wave 3 at around 24 USD. It gives a map of potential resistance points based on the Fibonacci grid determined by primary wave 3 of cycle wave III. Price will encounter significant resistance at 24 USD and 40.5 USD before it’s possible to think about reaching a new all-time high, perhaps targeting 94 USD.\n\nFor now, though, the burning question is where does the bottom lie. As is the case with all crypto tokens, everything depends on how bitcoin behaves over the coming weeks.\n\n---\n*Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. Nothing in this post should be taken as financial advice. All content is provided for information purposes only.*\n*All text and charts copyright @cryptolaidlaw 2018. All rights reserved.*",
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      "title": "Why I’m still short on bitcoin – an update on the ending diagonal",
      "body": "@@ -2143,16 +2143,57 @@\n endline?\n+ We should find out in the next few days.\n %0A%0A---%0A*D\n",
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      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "author": "cryptolaidlaw",
      "permlink": "why-i-m-still-short-on-bitcoin-an-update-on-the-ending-diagonal",
      "title": "Why I’m still short on bitcoin – an update on the ending diagonal",
      "body": "Since my last post, the bitcoin correction has continued to drag on, with a period of extensive consolidation that has patterned out the clearly visible descending triangle marked in orange in **Chart 1**. My preferred scenario remains the ending diagonal and, over the last month or so, we have edged tantalisingly close to a dénouement that could mark the end of the 2018 correction.\n\n[![2018.10.18 Ending diagonal update.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSSX7b2MTW1fHzM4PvZAxuToembYwZaLkZS697ER9XQKK/2018.10.18%20Ending%20diagonal%20update.png)Chart 1. Bitcoin 2018 correction: ending diagonal scenario (click to enlarge)](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSSX7b2MTW1fHzM4PvZAxuToembYwZaLkZS697ER9XQKK/2018.10.18%20Ending%20diagonal%20update.png)\n\n\n# Ending diagonal recap\n**Chart 1** shows the long 2018 correction based on an ABC zigzag structure (the full idea is [here](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptolaidlaw/where-s-the-bottom-bitcoin-ending-diagonal-update)). Let’s have a quick recap:\n* An aggressive A wave that took us to the low around USD 5,900 at the start of February\n* A corrective B wave to the distinctive double top formation around USD 11,500 at the start of March\n* A long, stretched-out C wave based on an ending diagonal.\n\nThe C wave ending diagonal hypothesis is compelling insofar as it reflects the fact that the A wave went “too far, too fast” and is allowing price the time needed to connect with the cycle-level trendline marked in red on **Chart 1**. (If there is one line that matters on the bitcoin chart, this is it.)\n\n# So, what’s changed?\nNothing and everything. Nothing, because the ending diagonal hypothesis is still very valid. Everything because we now have the descending barrier triangle marked in grey on **Chart 1**, patterned out during a month of chop and consolidation. A descending barrier triangle, especially when it follows a strong downward move is an extremely strong indicator of further downside to come. In short, the triangle looks complete and bitcoin seems closer than ever to finding its landing zone on the red touchline.\n\nWill the triangle break down? Will we touch the trendline?\n\n---\n*Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser. Nothing in this post should be taken as financial advice. All content is provided for information purposes only.*\n*All text and charts copyright @cryptolaidlaw 2018. All rights reserved.*",
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