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      "body": "Congratulations @ademt! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@ademt/birthday3.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 3 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@ademt) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=ademt)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "Bitcoin cash on the moon now :P",
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      "title": "The Bitcoin Bubble: What Happens When There is Too Much Money Being Printed",
      "body": "http://fatcatinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/bitcoin_bubble_on_8000.jpg\n\nIf you’re like me, these have been the headlines you’ve seen all day everyday for the last six months. . .\n\n“Bitcoin Surges to New Record Highs!”\n\n“Crypto Revolution: Don’t get Left Behind!”\n\n“Bitcoin is Making Millennials Millionaires Overnight!”\n\n“Investors Clamor into Crypto-Currencies to Find the Next Bitcoin!”\n\nConvoy Investments recently made a beautiful graphic showing us how bitcoin sits against the rest of the speculative manias throughout history.\n\nLook for yourself if you think I’m being too hard on the Bitcoin and crypto fad. . .\n\nhttp://fatcatinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Picture2.png\n\nDon’t get me wrong – I love the idea of Bitcoin.\n\nBut it has gone completely mad.\n\nThere is one thing that stands out to me though. . .\n\nUnlike the Tulipmania-Era (early 1600’s) and Mississippi Bubble Era (early 1700’s) – fiat money today is in total control.\n\nBack then, paper money was backed by precious metals – like gold and silver.\n\nThere weren’t central banks printing – rather adding zeros to virtual bank accounts – trillions in paper money.\n\nSo, I am not surprised crytpo-currencies have blown up this fast.\n\nThink of it this way. . .\n\nImagine you have a pyramid of plastic cups. And there is a faucet pouring water into the top cup.\n\nOver time it will overflow from the top cup and start filling up the next two cups underneath it.\n\nAnd after some more time, it will overflow those cups and go into the four below it.\n\nAnd so on and on. . .\n\nThat’s what is happening in our markets because of Central Bank liquidity – money printing and low interest rates.\n\nThere are literally trillions of Euros, Yen, Dollars, and other paper currencies sloshing around into ‘hot’ markets.\n\nNotice how the price of Bitcoin was dead – flat – for years?\n\nThen, all of a sudden, it exploded.\n\nhttp://fatcatinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Picture3.png\n\nIt follows an eerily similar path as every other major bubble in history.\n\nIt’s like they say. . .\n\n“There isn’t anything new to how these things go – only new instruments and devices this time following the same cycle over and over.”\n\nBut what really interests me is what’s next. . .\n\nWhat comes after Bitcoin?\n\nWhat caused this sudden perception to change? Why did it suddenly take off out of no where?\n\nAll that money making its way through markets was bound to cause rapid and crazy gains.\n\nBitcoin is a bubble, but we’re calling for it to go A LOT higher before it crashes.\n\nWe wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see the coin hit $20,000-$25,000 before the end of 2017.\n\nSound crazy? Not for a bubble this big.\n\nLong term this is great for gold: nothing has drawn this much attention to fiat money alternatives since Ron Paul ran for president.\n\nAnd as that attention rises and grows stronger, more money will be seeking decentralized investments. Just a little interest in gold can send prices flying.\n\nIn 2011 gold peaked around $1975. . .\n\nNext time, I’m sure it will surpass that – by a lot.\n\nWe need to be ready.\n\nCheers,\n\nChristoph Grizzard, The Fat Cat Investor\n\n  \n \n\nKK 453 © 2017 FatCat Consulting Limited. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from the publisher.",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttp://www.investorsguru.com/ViewNewsletter.html?id=1957",
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      "title": "Palisade Research: Cobalt Fundamentals Are Better Than Ever and Here's Why",
      "body": "http://palisade-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/0-3.png\n\n\nCobalt 27 Closes $85M Financing To Pave Way For Streaming As Cobalt Surges 12% In 1 Week\n\nCobalt 27 Capital Corporation (CVE:KBLT) made a bold push this week in becoming Canada’s first battery metals focused streaming company.\n\nHaving already completed the largest mining IPO in Canada since 2012 in June 2017, KBLT announced an $85 million “bought deal” last Thursday lead by TD Securities and had BMO, Scotia and Haywood as Co-Leads.\n\nIt gets better. . .\n\nThe deal was oversubscribed.\n\nWhat are they going to do with the $85 million?\n\nThey’re going to buy more cobalt.\n\nAnd this is a very important move. . .\n\nOne of the Hottest Commodities of 2016\n\nDid you know that the price of cobalt exploded last year?\n\nSeriously, it really took off.\n\nIn fact, it outperformed all its peers. . .\n\nhttp://palisade-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/1-4.png\n\nI know what you’re thinking.\n\n“What caused this crazy spike in the price cobalt?”\n\nThere are three reasons. . .\n\n1.) Growth in smartphone sales – smartphone batteries are still the main use for cobalt.\n\n2.) Global cobalt mine supply dropped 2.7% since last year – stressing the current cobalt deficits further.\n\n3.) The Electric Vehicle (EV) revolution is starting.\n\nIt boils down to this: when you think cobalt, you need to think batteries.\n\nAnd over the coming years, especially as EV demand goes parabolic – so will cobalt’s use.\n\nhttp://palisade-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/2-2.png\n\nTo put this in perspective, back in 2000, batteries only made up 16% of total cobalt consumption.\n\nToday, batteries account for 55% of it.\n\nWhat makes cobalt with lithium-ion so important in batteries?\n\nThat’s because. . .\n\nº     They are lightweight\n\nº     The lifespan of the battery is long\n\nº     Short recharge times\n\nº     A high density of power from a small amount of space\n\nThese reasons have made cobalt-containing lithium-ion-based batteries crucial for smartphones, tablets, and electric vehicles.\n\nIt’s no surprise why cobalt demand has grown over the last decade. . .\n\nhttp://palisade-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/3-2.png\n\nAnd with the huge growth in EV production inevitable, demand will take off.\n\nBut getting more cobalt supplies is becoming a serious question\n\nBMO Capital Markets wrote the following. . .\n\n“The potential cobalt constraint on EV growth is clear, and is gaining wider acceptance. This process has been accelerated by Volkswagen’s notable failure to secure long-term cobalt supply. . .”\n\nDo you know where most of the world’s cobalt comes from?\n\nThe Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).\n\nBy a long shot. . .\n\nhttp://palisade-research.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/4-4.png\n\nWith so much of the worlds cobalt production coming from a single source is worrisome.\n\nNot to mention the DRC is not the most stable of countries. . .\n\nAll it takes is one thing to go wrong there and the supply of such a critical metal – cobalt –  could dry up.\n\nVehicle makers and smart phone producers can’t risk this happening. It’s already been difficult enough to get the supplies of cobalt they need for the long term secured today.\n\nThat’s why these reasons will push cobalt prices much higher to bring other new supplies from around the world online.\n\nThis is what we love when investing in a commodity. . .\n\nGrowing demand plus diminishing supplies equals higher prices.\n\nAnd that’s why we have just the stock for you to take advantage of the coming cobalt boom. . .\n\nCobalt 27 Capital Corp. (CVE:KBLT)\n\nKBLT is a pure play on cobalt.\n\nActually, it is one of the only major ways to position yourself for a rising cobalt price.\n\nTheir strategy is really simple that we love it.\n\n“Buy cobalt at these low prices. Hold it until prices dramatically rise. Sell at a huge profit.”\n\nHere some highlights. . .\n\nº     Cobalt 27 purchased an additional 800 metric tons of cobalt, and now owns nearly 2,960 metric tons of cobalt\n\nº     Cobalt 27’s physical holdings give the company access to inventory financing that can be used to acquire streaming assets\n\nº     Cobalt 27’s balance sheet is now among the strongest battery metals pure play companies\n\nCobalt 27 was even able to out maneuver Volkswagen, Tesla, Unimcore, Panasonic, and other major industrial players to get their hands on physical cobalt.\n\nBut there is another unique strategy KBLT is deploying. . .\n\nThey are buying streaming contracts from cobalt producers.\n\nAnd because of their massive physical cobalt assets, they have access to cheap funds and lines of credit.\n\nManagement has talked about ways of creating huge shareholder value. . .\n\nOne creative option they have mentioned is. . .\n\n1.) Use their assets to secure a stream with a cobalt producer.\n\n2.) Generate cash from the streaming agreement.\n\n3.) Return cashflow back to shareholders through dividends\n\nAnd because of the company’s huge physical stockpile, this makes them relatively lower risk since they actually have cobalt on hand.\n\nFor all these reasons, KBLT is the best way to profit from the inevitable cobalt boom.\n\nPalisade Global Investments Limited holds shares of Cobalt 27. We receive either monetary or securities compensation for our services. We stand to benefit from any volume this write-up may generate. The information contained in such write-ups is not intended as individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. Information contained in this report is obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Palisade Global Investments and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information. Do your own due diligence.\n\n\n\n\n\nhttp://palisade-research.com/cobalt-27-closes-85m-financing-to-pave-way-for-streaming-as-cobalt-surges-12-in-1-week/",
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      "body": "Congratulations @ademt! You have received a personal award!\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@ademt/birthday1.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@ademt)  Happy Birthday - 1 Year on Steemit Happy Birthday - 1 Year on Steemit\nClick on the badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.\n\nFor more information about this award, click [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-update-8-happy-birthday)\n> By upvoting this notification, you can help all Steemit users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4084934-gold-bond-now-stock-investors-doubt-fed",
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      "title": "Gold, Bond, And Now Stock Investors Doubt The Fed",
      "body": "https://i1.wp.com/s3.amazonaws.com/liberty-uploads/wp-content/uploads/sites/594/2017/06/gone_fishing_by_guweiz-db7n1vd.jpg\n\nYesterday, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said something during a speech that resonated throughout financial media.\n\nReplying to a question about the financial systems stability, she said:\n\n“Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will.“\n\nYellen is turning 71 this August, so I would like her to define what is “our lifetimes.” Also, what does she consider a financial crisis?\n\nWhen another question had asked about share price valuations, Yellen admitted “by standard metrics, some asset valuations look high.” But before striking worry into the heart of Bulls she added, “[though] there is no certainty about that.”\n\nAs always, it wasn’t hard to predict this was how a Yellen interview would have gone. The usual, “everything is fine. Don’t panic. Things are safer than ever,” rhetoric was loud and clear.\n\nI believe it is all for show. As I have said before, imagine what the financial markets would do if she said anything to the contrary.\n\nFinally, the markets are starting to lose confidence in the Fed’s words. . .\n\nFirst it was the bond market. While the Fed jawbones about a recovery and fully expecting GDP and inflation to rise, the bond market is expecting the opposite. They are actually predicting deflation and a recession. The yield curve flattening is proof of this.\n\nhttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/6/29/27369723-14987141679484215.jpg\n\nShort term yields have risen from the beginning of the year, while longer term yields are lower.\n\n“A flatter yield curve hurts bank profits, stability, and willingness to lend. Also, a flatter yield curve is viewed as a sign of upcoming weakness,” said Bob Johnson, Morningstar’s director of economic analysis. “If long-term and short-term rates are close, markets must be expecting little growth or lenders would demand a bigger time premium.”\n\nSecondly, gold (GLD) investors have not been deterred against Fed hiking.\n\nhttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/6/29/27369723-14987164822664058.png\n\nActually, it is the exact opposite. The first rate hike that happened December 2015 sparked the life back into gold after 3.5 years of a brutal bear market.\n\nRising interest rates should have sent gold plunging.\n\nWith the economy recovering, inflation low, the US dollar at multi-year highs, and higher yield securities becoming available, there was a lot going against gold.\n\nThat is, if you believed what the Fed was preaching…\n\nBut gold has held relatively steady in the face of multiple rate hikes and a strong dollar. And since 2017, the price of gold has strengthened, while the U.S. dollar has trended lower.\n\nhttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/6/29/27369723-14987157732240617.png\n\nBoth bond investors and gold investors aren’t buying the Fed’s recovery hype. But after Yellen spoke Tuesday, the stock market is also having doubts.\n\nTo start, the idea there is a correlation between stock prices and a country’s GDP is a myth.\n\nhttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/6/29/27369723-14987177607053926.png\n\nWhat drives equity prices are the returns offered per share of a company’s capital business. GDP rates, which many believe are significant drivers of stock prices, don’t historically correlate.\n\nThe idea that nominal equity market returns approximate the country’s GDP growth rate is historically uninformed and intellectually dishonest. If there were any merit to the idea that equity market returns should approximate GDP growth rate, we would see this in a tight relationship between the two variables across countries. But we don’t – wrote Advisors Perspective.\n\nOf course, a growing economy is healthy for business, as sales and profits increase. But, as we have all learned throughout history, a stock’s price doesn’t simply reflect a business’ health. Lousy debt-ridden companies with inflated promotional hype can have high valuations. Meanwhile a business with a clean balance sheet, but in a boring sector, can have a low valuation.\n\nBut today, the U.S. stock market doesn’t need a rising GDP or inflation to push valuations higher. Why? Because they have the Fed. After the infamous ‘Greenspan Put‘ during the 1990s, where former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan propped up asset prices by lowering interest rates, markets suffer from insane moral hazard.\n\nAdd Ben Bernanke, the successor to Alan Greenspan, and his introduction of ‘Quantitative Easing‘ (all three rounds of it) and markets are heavily addicted to stimulus.\n\nBond investors and gold investors and stock investors are all doubting the Fed’s talk about growth and inflation. Watching President Trump’s difficulty to get anything done in office, his promises of ‘bigly tax cuts’ and infrastructure spending projects seem like pipe dreams. That is why they are preparing for once the Fed ends up putting their foot in their mouth and quickly reverse this tightening course.\n\nIf the equity market truly believed the Federal Reserve’s assertion that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates, it would be fleeing from stocks offering high yields.\n\nIt’s doing the opposite…\n\nCompanies in sectors that serve as bond proxies — telecom, utility, and real estate — were the only ones to see net buying last week, along with industrials, according to client data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.\n\nThus, the big 3 markets are pricing in, and preparing for, rate cuts and more stimulus…\n\nThat is why we haven’t seen gold drop below $1000. This is why long term bonds, like the 10 & 30 year, are falling while the Fed hikes. This is why the stock investors aren’t fleeing from stocks offering higher yields and equities prices continue their bull run even as economic data deteriorates.\n\nAll three asset classes will greatly benefit from more stimulus. And they know it’s coming.\n\nThe Fed’s constant enthusiasm is a facade. Nothing more. The economy is anemic at best. Growth and inflation are softening. And even more daunting, the origination of loans are collapsing.\n\nhttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/6/29/27369723-14987203849788098.png\n\nIt seems that no one believes the words the Fed is desperately telling us. But, again, what could we expect otherwise?\n\nIt isn’t like Yellen would go on TV and say, “Oh yeah, by the way, we are preparing for the next recession. It could be storming in any month now. We hope our balance sheet can sustain more bond buying without investors losing confidence in the dollar. We secretly want stocks much higher because it creates the wealth effect. We really need inflation higher to inflate our way out of some debt over the next couple decades, but we can’t let dollar holders realize this. Otherwise, the good news is the unemployment rate is looking good.“\n\nWouldn’t that be something?\n\nReposted from my blog - https://lonewolf.liberty.me/gold-bond-and-now-stock-investors-doubt-the-fed/",
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      "body": "Congratulations @ademt! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/votes.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@ademt) Award for the number of upvotes\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/comments.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@ademt) Award for the number of comments\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/voted.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@ademt) Award for the number of upvotes received\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/post4day.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@ademt) You published 4 posts in one day\n\nClick on any badge to view your own Board of Honnor on SteemitBoard.\nFor more information about SteemitBoard, click [here](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)\n\nIf you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word `STOP`\n\nBy upvoting this notification, you can help all Steemit users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "body": "Well, atleast taking advantage of the crypto bubble you can convert your freshly made currencies into tangible goods.\nSort of like a central bank o.O",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4079116-will-take-turn-bull-market-euphoria",
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      "body": "Well since crypto-currencies are literally dependent on someone else paying a higher price, it is not an investment.",
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      "title": "WTF Will It Take To Turn This Bull Market Confidence?",
      "body": "https://i1.wp.com/s3.amazonaws.com/liberty-uploads/wp-content/uploads/sites/594/2017/06/21352822104_263da78fcf_h.jpg\n\nInvesting is all psychological.\n\nI learned from George Soros how important his Theory of Reflexivity is. The crowds prevailing perception is what moves prices up or down, which further reinforce fundamentals, then proving the perception correct.\n\nhttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/6/5/27369723-14967072373286927.jpeg\n\nPeople will believe what they want to see. If the crowd is expecting a bear market and catastrophe, they will sell everything. And if they are expecting a bull market with bailouts protecting them, they will buy no matter how high the price.\n\n\"Financial markets, far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge, always provide a distorted view of reality. This is the principle of fallibility. The degree of distortion may vary from time to time. Sometimes it’s quite insignificant, at other times it is quite pronounced. . . Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. When a positive feedback develops between the trend and the misconception, a boom-bust process is set in motion. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way, and if it is strong enough to survive these tests, both the trend and the misconception will be reinforced.\" – George Soros\n\nSince 2008, investors witnessed the extraordinary lengths that the central banks and governments went to. Through zero-to-negative interest rates and straight up printing money via quantitative easing.\n\nThey did all this to maintain confidence in the monetary system.\n\nBecause without confidence, investors will just sit idle and hoard cash and probably gold. This is what happened during the 1930’s Great Depression. The persistent fear is what made it the decade long GREAT depression.\n\nBen Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve Chairman, knew this. After-all, he was a self-proclaimed expert on the Great Depression. So he did whatever was necessary to persuade investors that confidence was stable. And for consumers to keep borrowing and buying.\n\nAt some point, someone must have said to themselves, “the world is in this mess from too much debt and overspending. And their solution? Pile on even more debt and spend even more out of our means?”\n\nI know I sure did. . .\n\nBut regardless, here we are. It’s June 2017 and markets are at all time highs. Confidence is more than euphoric. It doesn’t matter what the catalysts is – good or bad – just keeping buying stocks higher. Just like the 1990’s had Alan Greenspan to reassure investors confidence (the infamous Greenspan Put), today it is the “Central Bank Puts“.\n\nDerived from the concept of a put option, these terms refer to central bank policies that encourage risk-taking and force equities higher. For instance, Alan Greenspan was known for lowering the Fed Funds rate whenever the stock market dropped below a certain value, which resulted in a negative yield and encouraged movement into equities.\n\nInvestors have realized its a win-win. If GDP and credit markets fall, the Fed will simply slash rates and print more money, which will help our assets. If GDP and credit markets strengthen, then that will justify the even higher prices.\n\nJanet Yellen, the current Fed chairwoman, will always give us a rosy outlook.\n\nThink about it . . .\n\nImagine what markets would do if she came out and said, “things are out of control. Growth is collapsing. And stocks are in a huge bubble.” We can’t get the whole truth or even an honest view of what the Central Banks think. Because remember, they can’t shake confidence.\n\nWhere does that leave markets going forward? If it is truly a win-win regardless of economic data, will markets just continue upwards forever? If you’re reading this and thinking “yes” – beware. History is littered with the corpses of investors who thought the same. . .\n\nBut, honestly, what will it take now to shake confidence?\n\nI have thought long and hard. I have read countless books. And I have spoken with numerous investors. I came to the conclusion that the market needs action, not words, to collapse.\n\nFor example, last month the Canadian alternative mortgage lender Home Capital Group’s (CN:HCG)(OTC:HMCBF) stock plummeted roughly 75% over two days.\n\nhttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/6/5/27369723-14967071585908675.png\n\nHome Capital Group basically had a bank-run. Their liquidity was drying up as depositors were pulling money out. Therefore it needed an immediate emergency injection of capital to keep the lights on. And its going to cost them as the deal they got was very expensive.\n\nThe C$2 billion ($1.5 billion) loan is coming from an institutional investor that Home Capital did not identify, and the lender’s agreement is non-binding. With a 10 percent interest rate plus other fees and charges, the company is effectively paying 22.5 percent on the first C$1 billion it borrows, which falls to 15 percent if it uses the full C$2 billion available to it, according to Jaeme Gloyn, an analyst at National Bank of Canada (Source:Bloomberg)\n\nA couple days later the mystery “institutional investor” was exposed. The good pensioners of the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOPP).\n\nHow did the 321,000 retired health workers of Ontario get on the hook for this? Well, the CEO of the HOPP, Jim Keohane, was also a director for Home Capital Group. He recused himself from the board of Home Capital Group the night before the deal was announced.\n\nBut it gets better. . .\n\nThe chairman of Home Capital Group, Kevin Smith, was on the board of HOPP. Because of the clear conflict of interest, he also recused himself from HOPP’s board.\n\nHOOPP confirmed in a separate statement late Thursday that it has agreed, along with a syndicate of lenders, to provide the C$2 billion credit line.\n\nAnd just like that, somehow an unlikely lender came to the rescue.\n\nOf course many stocks of Canadian mortgage lenders suffered because of this. Especially Equitable Group Inc.(CN:EQB)(OTC:EQGPF) being brought down as a side effect of Home Capital’s own problem. Its eerily similar to how things began to unfold before 2008.\n\nhttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/6/5/27369723-14967072109821506.jpg\n\nYet look at Home Capital Group today. The company is under pressure from the Ontario Securities Exchange (OSE) for falsifying income on loan applications. And the Canadian housing bubble has already peaked. Still, the stock is recovering and the alarming news was as good as ignored.\n\nThat’s what I am getting at in writing this article. Talks of a catastrophe were just that – talks.\n\nFor this market to actually shake confidence, it will need more than simple jawboning of a crisis. Sudden action will be needed.\n\nInstead of Home Capital Group talking about needing liquidity, they need to suddenly bankrupt. Instead of China talking about devaluing their currency, they need to actually do it. Instead of the Fed talking about unwinding their balance sheet, they need to surprise markets and do it.\n\nUntil investors are plagued with sudden changes that leave them speechless, I don’t believe the market confidence will falter. What made 2008 frightening? It was how fast the steadily declining financial markets suddenly imploded.\n\nAs-long as investors believe something will pass over, their confidence won’t be shaken.\n\nBut once that fine line is crossed – \n\nwatch out. . .\n\nRepost from my Blog: Thoughts of a Speculator",
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      "body": "Use fundamentals . . . like youre playing Chess. Think now what the market wants today, but what it will want tomorrow. \nLike Bitcoin, until a few months ago the market couldn't have cared less.",
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      "title": "Recent Dismal Data & Inverting Yields Signal A Recession",
      "body": "https://i1.wp.com/s3.amazonaws.com/liberty-uploads/wp-content/uploads/sites/594/2017/06/Snip20170611_1.png\n\n\nWatching any financial media the past couple weeks is full of bullish stock market news. The DOW hit a new record a couple days ago and nothing seems to shake the markets bullish confidence.\n\nBut there are deep problems brewing within the economy.\n\nAnd these problems are causing a divergence between the stock and bond markets . . .\n\n… but remember the bond market takes a longer-term view of what’s going on. I think people are taking a longer-term view on our economy, our economy growth, and where they think policy’s going – said Gary Cohn, Former Goldman Sachs President and Trump Economic Adviser, in an interview with Jim Cramer.\n\nSince bond investors take the “longer term view”, recent falling yields signal the market is expecting lower growth. Possibly a recession.\n\nMeanwhile, a rising stock market is signaling higher growth and pricing in a bullish future.\n\nWhat do we make of such contradictory views? Let’s look at some key economic trends.\n\nRecent data from loan markets are showing significant deceleration. And there is no sign of this trend changing anytime soon. . .\n\nhttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/06/04/auto%20loans%206.10_0.jpg\n\n“Carmageddon” has been unfolding throughout 2017. Auto loans are down a whopping 66% from their 2016 peak. The growth in new loans are only 1/3 of what they were last August, 10 months ago.\n\nMaking matters worse, auto loan delinquencies are trending upwards. . .\n\nThis is squeezing the auto market. New loan growth is collapsing while current outstanding loans are souring. This is the worst case scenario.\n\nMost car companies are still wooing bullish investors with optimistic future sales forecasts. For example, even as auto loans dry up and growth slows, TESLA’s stock has soared. They are now the 4th largest automotive company worldwide. And they merrily estimate to sell over 500,000 of their cars by year end 2018. . .\n\nhttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/06/04/real%20estate%20loans%206.10_0.jpg\n\nReal estate loans year-over-year have been cut in half from their 2016 peak of almost 8% to the present rate of 4.6%. This is roughly a 40% decline from a year ago.\n\nhttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/06/04/C%26I%20loans%20June%2010_0.jpg\n \nAt this rate, commercial bank loan creation will contract (turn negative) within the coming months. This will be the first time since the Great Recession – almost a decade ago.\n\nEven the greatest of market bulls can’t find a reason to defend this slowdown of loan originations.\n\nhttp://d1ty0e8cxefhfl.cloudfront.net/contributor/ademtumerkan/user_content/ckimages/orig_snip20170610_5.png\n\nI highlighted last week that the Commercial and Industrial Loan markets have a historic correlation with recessions. The last 30 weeks have seen C&I loans stall and even begin declining.\n\nA falling C&I, along with the significant drops in auto-loans, real-estate loans, and the recent dismal consumer credit data – is flashing recession. I don’t see how economists aren’t more vocal about this all-around general deceleration.\n\nEspecially the Federal Reserve. . .\n\nhttp://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2017/06/07/Photos/NS/MW-FN971_consum_20170607154301_NS.jpg?uuid=841ba70c-4bb9-11e7-beb0-9c8e992d421e\n\nHow is any of this good news for the near future?\n\nI wonder what the Fed Governors make of all this. . .\n\nJanet Yellen wants the market to take her confidence in this economic recovery seriously. Therefore the tightening seems appropriate after a near decade of accommodative Fed policies.\n\nBut these rate hikes are only making things worse. . .\n\nThe Fed tightening paired with anemic growth is a hazard. In a time of such ample deceleration in the loan origination markets, wouldn’t the Fed usually cut rates to incentivize loan originations? Yes, they historically have.\n\nIf the Fed continues at this current rate hike path, the yield curve will invert. An inverted yield curve has preceded the last 7 recessions, going back into the 1960s.\n\nThe last two times the yield curve inverted was in the years 2000 and 2006. The inversion and subsequent recession that began in the year 2000 caused NASDAQ stocks to plummet 80 percent. The following inversion caused the Great Recession in which the S&P 500 dropped 50 percent and, according to the Case/Shiller 20-City Composite Index, home prices fell over 30 percent – Michael Pento on Bloomberg. \n\nhttp://d1ty0e8cxefhfl.cloudfront.net/contributor/ademtumerkan/user_content/ckimages/orig_pento%20chart%20yield%20curve.jpg\n\nThe inverted yield curve is the ultimate spread between two dominant perceptions. The Fed and the bond market. . .\n\nThe invert is caused when markets predict deflation and recession, but the Fed predicts inflation and growth. If the market contradicts the Fed, confidence is weakening.\n\nThe only ways to reverse the inverting yield curve is if long term yields increase suddenly. This would be from inflation and GDP rising. Since I expect no sudden increase in GDP or inflation, this isn’t likely.\n\nThe other way is for the Fed to reverse raising their short term rates and instead begin lowering them. But compared to past rate cuts the Fed’s balance sheet is bloated at $4.5 trillion. And rates are still near 0, not giving them much to cut from . . .\n\nIf the economy continues its slump downward, which I see no reason it shouldn’t, then long term rates will fall accordingly. And if the Fed continues tightening, the economy will worsen and the yield curve will invert.\n\nBut if the Fed reverses from such tightening, that will completely shock market confidence. And investors will scramble to reprice almost everything.\n\nEither way, the near term is looking very dim.\n\nAnd the longer term is evermore uncertain. . .\n\n\nRepost from my Blog: link in about me.",
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      "permlink": "gdxj-sell-off-is-a-blessing-in-disguise-for-gold-specualtors",
      "title": "GDXJ Sell Off is a Blessing in Disguise for Gold Specualtors",
      "body": "![image.jpeg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZ9fQkZfYUMBspGU1jivf3KETMJ3bHfXuGrieE5DmRzNz/image.jpeg)\n\nI. The Bond Market Loses Confidence in the Fed\n\nAfter the Fed hiked rates and highlighted their balance sheet unwinding plans last week, bond yields further dropped. This means there is a significant lack of confidence in the economy and doubt in the Fed by bond investors.\n\nWhy does this matter?\n\nBecause bond investors are predicting a recession, so they buy bonds which pushes yields down. But the Fed is claiming that everything is going swell, so they are hiking rates. This is causing the yield curve to start inverting.\n\nAnd since 1956 the last 9 time yields inverted, a recession followed. . .\n\n![image.jpeg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmfXXQDTyuzCrDWQVXChhszxnkmDUnp59bn2RbjRJ1kfVq/image.jpeg)\n\nYield inversion is when short term rates, such as the overnight lending rate i.e. Fed funds rate, are higher than longer term rates, such as the 10 year bond. Economic and market sentiment is poor when this occurs. Bond investors would rather own long term bonds since they expect deflation and slow growth. Most importantly, the market believes that the higher short term rates won’t last long since Fed doctrine calls to slash rates during a recession, attempting to stimulate economic growth.\n\nThe divergence between bond investors and the Fed is signaling a dangerous outlook.\n\nThis is critical to understand. . .\n\nEven after the Fed raised rates for the second time this year and notified the public of their Quantitative Tightening (QT), treasury yields actually fell. Not only that, but they have been falling since the end of March.\n\nThis tells us that the bond market doesn’t believe the Fed. . .\n\nBond investors are expecting deflation and slower growth, contrary to the Feds jawboning of rising inflation and higher growth. And I believe the bond market.\n\nNot only is the bond market telling, but the price of gold is signaling problems ahead for the Fed. . .\n\nGold has held up extremely well against a tightening Fed, slower growth, and a multi-year high dollar. The price of gold has bounced around the $1,250 range consistently. All while the dollar has been losing steam since hitting a near decade high in January.\n\nThe only asset class that is believing the Fed’s “economic recovery” pipe dream is the stock market. And stock investors are always the last to realize what is brewing under the economy.\n\nThats why stock markets collapse so suddenly. . .\n\n… but remember the bond market takes a longer-term view of what’s going on. I think people are taking a longer-term view on our economy, our economy growth, and where they think policy’s going – said Gary Cohn, Former Goldman Sachs President and Trump Economic Adviser, in an interview with Jim Cramer.\n\nGold and bond investors are diverging from the euphoric stock investors and the Fed. They are taking the longer-term view that rates will go back down to zero.\n\nMaybe even lower. . .\n\nI wrote a detailed piece of the recent dismal data thats going unnoticed by many. I find the data compelling enough that the U.S. consumption based economy is imploding. The year-over-year growth has collapsed for auto, real-estate, and commercial industrial loans. This tells us that debt fueled consumption is slowing dramatically.\n\nAnd the inverting yield curves back that up. . .\n\nII. Gold Mining ETF’s Recent Crash is Actually a Gift in Disguise\nApril saw a huge crash in gold mining shares, for no apparent reason. Gold has held up well and the USD has declined.\n\nWhat caused this divergence between the mining indexes and the actual price of gold?\n\nIt was the April 12th announcement that the GDXJ was to be rebalanced.\n\n ![image.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmP2Lif7PXmnwvsHWymP8SHiJG6XtHRjQH1e8V4CJboMxa/image.png)  \nGLD (orange) vs. GDX (blue) vs. GDXJ (red) – Note the significant divergence since mid-April (white box)\n \n\nBy May 4th, the GDX was down -17% against the GLD. And the GDXJ faired much worse, down almost -26% against the GLD. . .\n\nContrary to what many think, this was a bullish sign. The GDXJ has endured a problem that was caused by its own success. . .\n\nAn abundance of capital has flowed into the GDXJ from bullish investors. And they haven’t been able to place it all within the mandated sphere of stocks it can invest in. Index funds cannot own a certain over a certain amount of a company’s shares without triggering takeover regulations.\n\nDemand has been overwhelming enough that it has run into the danger of owning too much blocks of mining company shares.\n\nAnd it has already hit the threshold for many companies. . .\n\n“This is the curse of success,” said Sameer Samana, a St. Louis-based global quantitative strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, which oversees $1.8 trillion. “They’re starting to run into issues of how much they own in certain names, how many names qualify for the index and they’re running into issues of how big the fund has gotten.”  – wrote Bloomberg\n\nObserve how ugly that drop was, and still relatively is. Interestingly enough this was during a time that the gold price has kept steady.\n\nThe last time the GDXJ was battered like this (end of December 2016), it rallied back quickly and fiercely.\n\nThis has opened up incredible opportunities for investors. None of these gold mining stocks had any fundamental problems which caused their prices to collapse. It was all from forced selling by an index fund. Therefore these prices are artificially low.\n\nParadoxically though, the short-term weakness created by the GDXJ rebalance may actually represent a buying opportunity for canny investors, since all this downward pressure has very little to do with fundamentals – wrote Alastair Ford of ProactiveInvestors.\n\nChances are, since this rebalancing talk started in April, that the market has already priced all this in.\n\nThus anymore downside is shallow.\n\nIII. Always Seize the Opportunity \nThese type of special situations are what offer prudent investors asymmetric, low risk-high reward, gains.\n\nAs the yield curve begins to invert and bond markets lose confidence in the Fed, a recession becomes imminent as history shows. The U.S. Dollar is also losing momentum, even as the Fed hikes. The USD Index is down more than 5% since beginning of the year. Since the end of April the dollar has been progressively declining.\n\n![image.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXSni344BGpewknNfeFUSQT7f5oFaB61EnDnttgaEXpWK/image.png)\n\nFed will reverse their tightening once the economy slides into recession. They will, in fact, begin ample easing and stimulus. And gold will soar as they do whatever they can to get inflation back.\n\nA GDXJ rebalancing is the situation investors must take advantage of. High quality companies can be purchased at a discount from being sold off in a quick liquidation.\n\nWouldn’t it be great to go to Abercrombie & Fitch and take advantage of a huge sale they’re having, simply because they are being forced to liquidate clothes to rebalance their inventory? It doesn’t mean there is anything wrong with the clothes. Simply a spacing issue.\n\nThis is exactly whats going on with the GDXJ stocks. Nothing wrong with the companies fundamentals or assets. Just an ETF spacing issue.\n\nMake sure to do research and have the best gold stocks for when the tide turns.\n\nReposted from my blog \nhttps://lonewolf.liberty.me",
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      "body": "The Fed has been the only thing keeping the market propped up. I think your right that we will start to see softening economic data by end of year or at least early 2018.",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4082896-bond-market-calling-feds-bluff",
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      "body": "![image.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcWCRMai6FKaAhHpZ2raLGaXdC6ZLqWjgQiaUeH6k8G18/image.png)\n\nSomething happened Tuesday that we haven’t seen since December 2007. . .\n\nThe spread between treasury bills due in 5 years and the 30 year collapsed. It went as low as 96 bips, or less than 1%.\n\n![image.jpeg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSKb7jm2PFHsAQa4W2ijNgRFXhFRWaQkCcfQnXBn6fJNP/image.jpeg)\n\nThe 30 year rate is most influenced by inflation expectations. When creditors loan money out for three-decades, they need to have an idea of what their nominal and real returns will be.\n\nThe yield curve is  flattening as bond investors buy longer term paper. And the last two times this happened, the economy entered recession.\n\nToday it is signaling deflation and recession yet again. . .\n\nWhy? What’s going on?\n\nThe Fed’s hawkishness and rush to hike is contrasting weakening inflation.\n\nData last Wednesday showed that the so-called core Consumer Price Index i.e. CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, increased 1.7 percent year-on-year in May, the smallest rise since May 2015 – wrote Reuters.\n\nChicago Fed President, Charles Evans, spoke on  Tuesday in an interview that he is worried about recent inflation softness. He is skeptical the Fed will even reach and maintain its 2% inflation objective. Evans also made the bold statement that if inflation stays soft, they will have to reduce hiking aggressiveness.\n\n“I will say that the most recent inflation data made me a little nervous about that. I think it’s much more challenging from here on out,” Evans said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC.\n\nIt appears that the market does not believe the Fed’s pro-growth hype. . .\n\nIn fact, the more the Fed boasts this extremely aggressive hawkish message, the more longer term yields continue to fall.\n\nI  wrote last week that this current pace of deteriorating economic growth, coupled with a hiking and unwinding Fed, will lead to inversion. And it appears today the market is nearing that outcome.\n\nYields have to be flat first before they can invert.\n\n![image.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmc4hfpJL7mVacEXrGJZxBqpjWsriXf199yoyJvKSk8R63/image.png)\n\nSoftening inflation is only just a symptom of a deeper problem. Weaker credit growth is at the root.\n\nUBS Bank warned that the ‘Credit Impulse Gauge’ has stalled, and rolled over. This allows individuals to track the economy’s credit creation.\n\nAnd since credit drives growth in the United States, with nearly 2/3 of our GDP from consumption, we need consumers to keep borrowing and spending. The faster money changes hands, the more velocity there is. Velocity is a key input in the economy’s inflation growth.\n\nThe Credit Impulse Gauge not only drives consumers, but also drives investors as credit growth has a correlation with inflation, velocity, and therefore asset prices. The more consumers have to spend, the more corporations sell, thus higher earnings.\n\n![image.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeiZ1E88Qzd3gLGALfvmMSpFoxsvCXNs4mKms7xp5PtPj/image.png)\n\nThe dire warning the Credit Impulse Gauge tells is concerning. Not only has growth in credit stopped, but its sharply reversing. UBS said, “from peak to trough, the deceleration in global credit growth is now approaching that [which was] during the global financial crisis.”\n\nBut right now, we aren’t in a financial crisis. . .\n\nIs this what the bond market is telling us? The economy is sliding into a recession as they chase the yield curve flat during a stubbornly hawkish Fed? That the deceleration of credit growth, softening inflation, and asset prices is entering crisis levels?\n\nThe commercial and industrial loans (C&I) are also  signaling dire warnings. If the flow of credit declines, the businesses and consumers are constraining their expenditures.\n\n![image.jpeg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXa9XapNikxrqXbp45JWvjibZ4DVh5Q8qeAbXbfcr6Gtg/image.jpeg)\n\nThe last three times since the 1990’s when C&I loans were as low as they are today, the economy was in recession.\n\nThe credit impulse in the US has also turned down, seemingly on the back of a sharp drop in demand for C&I loans – said UBS.\n\nEverything is pointing to a massive deflationary collapse of the global economies. Decelerating credit growth, inverting yield curve, and softening inflation. After a near decade of cheap credit, the tide has turned.\n\nHave we learned nothing from business cycle theory? Specifically the Austrian Business Cycle, which is unilaterally ignored.\n\nWhat is the next catalyst that will suddenly reverse this downward collapse of credit growth? It would have to be sudden spike from inflation and growth, or a dovish Fed. And as I don’t expect the former, the Fed is the only option.\n\nThat crazy u-turn would send gold(NYSEARCA:GLD) soaring. \n\nI expect a lag from the softening economic data which will show itself truly by year end 2017.\n\nI wonder how the market will react then. . .\n\nReposted from my blog: https://lonewolf.liberty.me/",
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      "title": "My New Article Out: Clinton, Trump and Gold: Become Antifragile in a Fragile World",
      "body": "https://i.imgsafe.org/b9f8047c52.jpg\n\nThis election season is shaping up to be an extremely contentious one, with emotions running high, rigged primaries, pending lawsuits, threats of violence and deep-rooted hatred between supporters of Trump versus Clinton. The stock market looks like another massive bubble waiting to burst and any number of black swan events could be the needle that finally the bubble and causes the phony recovery to come tumbling down.\n\nhttps://i.imgsafe.org/b9f24368e8.jpg\n\nIn today’s article, we take a look at how the election season could impact your investments and which asset classes stand to benefit the most. We believe it is important to be positioned correctly well ahead of November and the chaos that could erupt following the Presidential election.\n\nLink For My Article on my Website: https://lonewolf.liberty.me/clinton-trump-and-gold-become-antifragile-in-a-fragile-world/\n\nBecoming Antifragile in a fragile world is important. Make sure to read my Summer book list post regarding risk management. \nhttps://i.imgsafe.org/b9f4c1fad6.png",
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      "body": "@@ -805,60 +805,110 @@\n icle\n+ on my Website\n : http\n+s\n ://\n-goldstockbull.com/articles/trump-clinton-go\n+lonewolf.liberty.me/clinton-trump-and-gold-become-antifragile-in-a-fragile-wor\n ld/%0A\n@@ -913,17 +913,19 @@\n /%0A%0ABecom\n-e\n+ing\n  Antifra\n@@ -928,16 +928,120 @@\n ifragile\n+ in a fragile world is important. Make sure to read my Summer book list post regarding risk management. \n %0Ahttps:/\n",
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      "title": "My New Article Out: How Will Trump, Clinton and This Contentious Election Season Impact Gold?",
      "body": "https://i.imgsafe.org/b9f8047c52.jpg\n\nThis election season is shaping up to be an extremely contentious one, with emotions running high, rigged primaries, pending lawsuits, threats of violence and deep-rooted hatred between supporters of Trump versus Clinton. The stock market looks like another massive bubble waiting to burst and any number of black swan events could be the needle that finally the bubble and causes the phony recovery to come tumbling down.\n\nhttps://i.imgsafe.org/b9f24368e8.jpg\n\nIn today’s article, we take a look at how the election season could impact your investments and which asset classes stand to benefit the most. We believe it is important to be positioned correctly well ahead of November and the chaos that could erupt following the Presidential election.\n\nLink For My Article: http://goldstockbull.com/articles/trump-clinton-gold/\n\nBecome Antifragile\nhttps://i.imgsafe.org/b9f4c1fad6.png",
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