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      "body": "新西兰这一轮大幅降息，本质不是主动刺激经济，而是被动应对前期加息带来的冲击。此前利率从低位一路抬升到5.5%，由于新西兰以浮动利率房贷为主，利率上升迅速传导到居民端，导致房贷压力上升、消费收缩、房地产下行、失业上升，经济接近停滞。在这一过程中，需求被压制，通胀才逐步回落，因此降息并不是让通胀下降的原因，而是通胀下降之后才获得的政策空间，本质上是“止血”而不是“刺激”。\n\n新西兰经济的核心问题在于结构。长期以来，其增长依赖房地产、消费和农产品出口，缺乏高附加值产业和真正的增长引擎。金融结构上，房贷占比高且以浮动利率为主，使得经济对利率极度敏感，一旦利率上升，经济快速收缩。其增长模式主要依赖三点：房地产价格上升带来的信用扩张、人口增长带来的需求扩张以及农产品价格周期带来的外部收入，这种模式本质上属于低质量增长。\n\n与澳大利亚相比，两者差异非常明显。新西兰是内需和信用驱动型经济，而澳大利亚是资源出口驱动型经济。新西兰的收入更多依赖内部资产价格，而澳大利亚依赖铁矿、煤炭和天然气等资源出口带来的外部现金流。这意味着澳大利亚可以在更高利率环境下维持经济稳定，而新西兰则无法承受高利率。通胀结构上，新西兰通胀已经回落，而澳大利亚由于工资和租金因素存在明显粘性，因此新西兰可以降息，而澳大利亚降息受限。\n\n当前阶段，新西兰经济处于“止跌但未恢复”的状态。通胀下降，利率下行，但房地产尚未恢复，消费仍然疲弱，失业有所上升，经济只是从衰退边缘回到低速增长。相比之下，澳大利亚仍然面临通胀压力，同时由于资源出口支撑，经济尚未明显走弱，因此政策上更倾向于维持高利率。\n\n在外部冲击方面，如果出现油价高位叠加美元强势的环境，新西兰将明显承压，因为其能源完全依赖进口，缺乏对冲能力，高油价会带来输入型通胀并压制经济。而澳大利亚虽然也面临成本上升，但由于其能源和资源出口属性，中期会获得一定对冲，因此表现相对更强，这也是AUD相对NZD具有结构性优势的原因。\n\n从资本市场角度看，新西兰股市长期上涨并非源于企业增长，而是过去十多年全球低利率环境下，高分红资产被资金追逐所导致的估值抬升，本质上是利率驱动而非盈利驱动。随着利率回升以及增长问题暴露，降息已经无法再推动股市上涨，说明市场开始从利率定价转向基本面定价，而新西兰缺乏增长，使得这一市场缺乏新的上行动力。\n\n展望未来，新西兰经济可能有三种路径：第一是基准情形，即弱复苏，维持1%到2%左右的低速增长，通胀继续回落，这种情况下纽币可能止跌但难以走强；第二是外部冲击，例如油价上行导致通胀反弹，从而限制降息空间，纽币波动加大；第三是最差情形，即滞胀，经济依然疲弱但通胀回升，政策被约束，纽币可能出现持续性走弱。\n\n整体来看，新西兰的问题不在于短期周期，而在于长期结构，降息只能缓解压力，但无法创造新的增长来源。而澳大利亚由于具备资源出口带来的现金流支撑，在当前全球环境下具备更强的抗压能力。因此在货币层面，纽币体现为利率敏感且结构性偏弱，而澳元体现为资源驱动且相对更强。在没有新的增长引擎出现之前，这种差异将长期存在。",
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      "body": "为使交易工作收益更加稳定，特制定此流程\n\n交易目标：\n初期目标：本金扩大至10万美金以上\n中期目标：10万美金固定周期收益\n\n\n交易标的：                  标普指数，美元指数，铜期货， 原油 （后期考虑部分个股）     \n\n交易周期：                  中长期\n\n\n交易理论基础：           道氏理论，美联储操作，商业净头寸\n\n交易方向考虑因素：    \ni. 根据道氏理论与美联储操作判断股市与美元长期趋势\nii. 日常收集\n1. 记录分析美联储中长期需要解决的问题，与解决的方法。  （通胀  &  缩表/加息）\n2. 每周日查看下周美联储讲话时间，根据时间列表记录美联储计划\n3. 每周四查看美联储实际操作情况，列表记录\n4. 每周X查看商业持仓头寸报告，记录变化\niii. 判断\n1. 道氏理论中期趋势是否与长期趋势一致？\n2. 美联储需要面对问题是否缓解？\n3. 美联储是否按照计划操作？\n4. 商业头寸有无重大变化？\n    \n\n交易执行：\n1. 开仓：一次性开仓，加仓与开仓相同理由。不追涨杀跌。\na. 第一个是新趋势的形成点；\nb. 第二个是横向震荡显著走向某个方向的突破点；\nc. 第三个我们顺着大趋势(上涨)并逆着小趋势(回调)交易，在小的下跌出买入。是上涨主趋势的回调点(做多)或下跌主趋势的反弹点(放空)。\n\n2. 平仓\na. 浮盈：\ni. 主动止盈三分之一保护利润\nii. 主要阻力区止损三分之一\niii.  移动止损跟踪三分之一获取超额利润\nb. 浮亏：\ni. 绝对金额不超过8%\nii. 确认趋势翻转直接平仓或等第一个反弹平仓\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n作为交易者，我的目标始终是：在经济独立的情况下保有自由。\n我一向都把自己的交易生涯视为一种事业经营，而一位谨慎的企业家首先便希望能够维持他的日常开销，然后再追求盈余的稳定成长。\n我的哲学基于三个原则，按重要性排列如下：\n\n保障资本\n一致性的获利能力\n追求卓越的回报\n\n这三者是我的基本原则，因为它们是所有市场决策的最高指导原则。在我的投机策略中，每一个原则都有不同的分量，而且彼此之间有衔接的关系。换言之，资本保障将造就一致性的获利能力，后者又使我可以追求卓越的回报。\n\n \n保障资本在我的事业经营哲学中，保障资本是最核心的原则。换言之，在任何潜在的市场活动中，风险是我考虑的最重要因素。在我问“可以实现的潜在利润如何”之前，我会先考虑“我所可能遭受的潜在亏损如何”。\n \n \n一致性的获利能力\n优秀的投机者或投资者应该可以掌握长期价格趋势的60%~80%。这段时期内，交易重点应该放在低风险的一致性获利。\n你必须衡量每一项决策的风险与回报的关系，根据已经累积的获利或亏损评估风险，这样才能增加一致性的胜算。\n例如，假定你是以季度为基础操作。在季度的开始，任何新头寸的规模都应该很小（相对于风险资本而言），因为当期还没有累积获利。\n如果第一笔交易发生亏损，任何新头寸都应该根据损失而按比例缩小。\n反之，如果你有获利，应该将一部分获利运用在新头寸上，并将其余获利存入银行。这样，你不但可以增加获利的潜能，还可以保障一部分的获利。\n持续评估风险与回报之间的关系而永远掌握胜算，这种理念适用于所有趋势。\n任何既有的获利都不可再损失50%。\n\n例如，我从事S＆P500指数期货的盘中交易时，我感兴趣的最小波段幅度，是我可以将潜在损失（通常在递单时便已经决定）限制在3~5档之间（每档相当于每份合约25美元），而获利方向的最近压力或支撑则在15~20档以上。我在中期趋势中寻找交易机会时，也会运用相同的原则，仅是单位较大而已。例如，1~3点的风险与3~10点以上的利润。\n \n\n\n追求卓越的回报当我已经获利时，仍然运用相同的推理程序，但会进一步追求卓越的回报。\n唯有当回报与风险之间存在合理的关系时，我才会以更大的风险追求更高的资本回报率。\n这并不意味着我改变了风险/回报准则，我仅是增加了头寸的规模。\n \n\n为了让你免遭大洗盘而离场，并骄傲的站在赢家的行列，我总结了一些必备的战术，如下所述，这是最基本的策略：\n(1).只有在市场展现强烈的趋势特性，或者你的分析显示市场正在酝酿形成趋势，才进场。一定要找出每个市场持续进行的主趋势，而且  顺着这个主控全局的趋势交易，否则观望。\n(2).假如你正要顺势交易，建仓点有三个：\n第一个是新趋势的形成点；\n第二个是横向震荡显著走向某个方向的突破点；\n第三个是上涨主趋势的回调点(做多)或下跌主趋势的反弹点(放空)。\n(3)．顺势而为的仓位，可以给你带来很大的利润，所以千万不要提前下车。\n(4)．只要所建仓位和主趋势一致，而且市场已经证明你是顺势交易，你可以在第二点所讲的技术性回调处加仓(金字塔式)。\n(5)．保持仓位不动，直到你用客观的分析发现，趋势已经反转，或者就要反转。这时就要平仓，而且行动要快。如果随后的市场趋势告诉你，行进中的主趋势依然不变，平仓的行动过早时，你要重新上车，也就是在回档时，再次建立顺势而为的仓位。\n(6)．但如果市场趋势反向，也就是没跟你站在一边，怎么办？没别的法，快跑，行动要快\n\n\n\n\n\n1．成功的原因：\n(1).我们很快就发现了新的上涨趋势正在形成，在此期间，我们建立的多头仓位。\n(2).我们顺着大趋势(上涨)并逆着小趋势(回调)交易，在小的下跌出买入。\n\n\n(3).我们根据以下原则平掉部分多头仓位\na.市场已经完成了上涨的目标；\nb.市场主要情绪已经变成绝对看涨，小趋势已经上涨；\nc.价格已经钻入上面可怕的阻力区，我们感觉再上涨就要进行关键的价格修正了。\n(4).我们绝对要拒绝诱惑，这些诱惑在主导大众情绪，也就是说，我们不会在上涨时买入，不会在下跌时卖出。\n  2．如果趋势对你不利，要快速平仓；但是如果市场还是对你有利的，不要急于平仓。记住，大趋势总是比你想象的要跑得远。\n  3．我喜欢持有和大趋势一致的仓位——如果我想加仓，我喜欢逆着小趋势加仓。\n  4．确认大趋势只是完成了一半的工作，因为波动幅度太大了，即使你是做多的，若时机不对，也会被套死。所以顺势做多也要逆小趋势，在短期走弱时介入，并且控制仓位，这样风险更小。\n  5．当市场达到你的大价格目标时，假如你早就决定了要平掉一半的仓位，赶快行动！如果你不行动，迟点你会后悔。\n  6．交易方法：\nI.关于建仓\n顺着大趋势交易，逆着小趋势交易。例如，满足下列条件时做多：\na.       大趋势上涨，小趋势已经下跌且\nb.      价格跌到了支撑区，且\nc.       和前一次相比，市场已经下跌了涨幅的35%-50%。\n如果市场大趋势是明显的下跌，那么满足以下条件可以做空：\na.       小趋势已经上涨，且\nb.      价格已经涨到了上面的阻力区，且\nc.       和前一次下跌相比，市场已经反弹了35%-50%。\nII.关于平仓\n<1>.如果有利润。\na.       找到合理的价格目标，如果是做多，那么是在阻力区；如果是做空，那么是在支撑区，平掉三分之一的仓位。\nb.      当长期价格目标到了主要的阻力区和支撑区时，再平掉三分之一。\nc.       用止损单保护剩下来的三分之一的仓位，用跟踪止损。最终仓位会被止损，但也许利润会比当初想象的多。\n<2>.如果是亏损。\na.       采用强制金额止损，即亏损达到本金的某个比例，这是你所能忍受的极限。\nb.      采用图标止损，也就是当大趋势对你的仓位不利时平仓——不是小趋势反转时(此时你应该建仓，而不是平仓)。\nc.       持有仓位，直到你确认自己错了(大趋势和你相反)，然后在第一个技术修正时平仓。\nIII.如果一建仓就亏损\n如果你的时机把握得好——也就是在上涨的大趋势回调时做多；或在下跌的大趋势反弹时放空——这样，如果大趋势不反转，我们就不用考虑平仓。如果大趋势反转了，我们用以下两个方法处理：\na.       我们会观察当天的市场行为，如果在收盘前大趋势要反转或者正在反转，我们平仓，至少是平掉一部分仓位。\nb.      另一方面，如果市场看起来是在一个主要的底部区域，有很好的支撑，其他技术或基本面指标也继续建议持有多头仓位，我就继续持有。我们肯定不会加仓，我们会清醒的在反弹时平仓。\n     7．持有盈利的仓位就像是骑一匹难驯的马。一旦你上去了，你知道要做什么——坚持再坚持，不要落马。你知道，如果你还在马上，你就是赢家。听起来很简单？嗯，这就是成功交易的精华。\n  8．从很大程度上来说，是价格制造了新闻，而不是新闻制造了价格。期货市场对价格非常敏感，通常它总是提前消化吸收了大部分新闻，当大众投机者知道这些新闻时，这些新闻已过时了。\n  9．我最大的问题就是控制自己，不要在上涨时买入，不要在回调时卖出。这肯定是个问题。我有一个小发明去防止我去交易——每天早晨，我阅读《股票作后回忆录》，尤其是利弗莫尔“坐不住”的那一段。我要拒绝做短线，拒绝做日内交易，拒绝因为消息或流言就在回调时卖出，这些都是诱惑，这样的诱惑很多。\n 10．用两种不同的方法来计算价格，这两种方法相互独立，但是都得到了相同的结果，这样的事总是让我印象深刻。\n 11．我还是想等市场告诉我我是正确的时刻再加仓。\n 12．当市场下跌时，我坚持我的观点，耐心的等待买入的机会。我一直在思考利弗莫尔的建议：我学到了，建立仓位并持有它。我可以等，没有丝毫的不耐烦。我知道一定有反弹，这只是暂时的。我做空了100000股，我知道这个不可避免的大反弹会糟糕到吞噬我一半的浮动利润(一百万美元)。我坐在那里，看着一半的利润被洗掉了，从没有想过要先回补，等反弹时再放空。我知道，如果我这么做，我也许会失去的部位，这绝对是可怕的。只有大波动才能为你赚大钱。",
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      "body": "重仓万恶之源。\n仓位以形态破坏能承受的亏损额确定(道氏理论为前提)\n为了未来，同时为了大脑算力，低频",
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      "title": "尝试完全以价格形态为标准推进止损"
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      "body": "一波趋势达到200%的收益，在震荡中损失20%\n规避的方法有两种：\n1，判断趋势与震荡，震荡的时候不做\n2，不判断趋势与震荡，从更高一级的趋势上统一处理，留足风险存量，轻仓止损\n\n3，使用期权等工具，以大搏小",
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      "body": "几个内恰的原则\n1： 不断尝试意味着试错多，止损要小-----> 仓位可以重------->机会稍微多一下（中级或更小的趋势）----->经常要变换想法与方向------->更多的试错\n2：  拿住长期趋势------->机会少止损距离大-------> 仓位轻并且不能频繁试错（成本）-------->坚定的看法逻辑",
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      "body": "第一：看趋势\n第二：买回调\n第三：大止损\n第四：跟踪收钱",
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      "body": "This is a one-time notice from SCHOOL OF MINNOWS, a free value added service on steem.\nGetting started on steem can be super hard on these social platforms 😪 but luckily there is some communities that help support the little guy 😊, you might like school of minnows, we join forces with lots of other small accounts to help each other grow! \nFinally a good curation trail that helps its users achieve rapid growth, its fun on a bun! check it out. https://plu.sh/somland/",
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      "body": "铜作为战略大宗商品，在所有货币升值的背景下,确定走低，已经走低\n原油因为乌克兰战争一时暴涨，但是\n第一，市场已经消化了消息\n第二，大趋势碳中和需求变少",
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      "body": "一波趋势达到200%的收益，在震荡中损失20%\n规避的方法有两种：\n1，判断趋势与震荡，震荡的时候不做\n2，不判断趋势与震荡，从更高一级的趋势上统一处理，留足风险存量，轻仓止损",
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      "author": "xucuo",
      "body": "@@ -216,16 +216,17 @@\n %E6%B3%95%0A%0A#####\n+ \n %E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5%0A*%E4%BA%A4%E6%98%93\n",
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      "amount": "0.001 STEEM",
      "from": "executive-board",
      "memo": "❗ Hello xucuo, great that you are using the STEEM blockchain. The Executive Board is publishing insider infos at https://discord.gg/KyBbmhh on how you will be earning the most coins. It's easy, just follow the instructions. THE 1000X BOOSTER KEY is already waiting for you over there too. 😉 Warm regards, The Executive Board.",
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      "author": "steem.history",
      "body": "Hello welcome to Steemit world! \n I'm @steem.history, who is steem witness. \n This is a recommended post for you.[Newcomers Guide](https://steemitdev.com/guide/@steemitblog/steemit-a-guide-for-newcomers) and [The Complete Steemit Etiquette Guide (Revision 2.0)](https://steemit.com/steem/@steem.history/the-complete-steemit-etiquette-guide-revision-20-homage-1598425779) and, recommended community [Newcomers Community](https://steemit.com/trending/hive-172186) \n I wish you luck to your steemit activities.<center> \n \n \n https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXHwdcNs5VPcBft1iSosPdHLpBNBfjuG84g3ffWhMw5JQ/image.png \n <sub>(The bots avatar has been created using https://robohash.org/)</sub> \n @steem.history \n \n ### My witness activity \n - [My aspiration for STEEM witness](https://steemit.com/hive-185836/@steem.history/my-aspiration-for-steem-witness-1601280729) \n - Provides information on Steem.  \n [Reference](https://steemit.com/trending/hive-130095) \n - Supporting the Steem project. \n [SPUD4STEEM project](https://steemit.com/trending/spud4steem) \n - Supporting the community. \n [Newcomers Community](https://steemit.com/trending/hive-172186),[Steem Sri Lanka](https://steemit.com/trending/hive-133716) ,[WORLD OF XPILAR](https://steemit.com/trending/hive-185836), [GLOBAL STEEM](https://steemit.com/trending/hive-145160), [Scouts](https://steemit.com/trending/hive-181136), [Latino Community](https://steemit.com/trending/hive-188619) \n \n ### My featured posts \n - [The Complete Steemit Etiquette Guide (Revision 2.0) -Homage](https://steemit.com/steem/@steem.history/the-complete-steemit-etiquette-guide-revision-20-homage-1598425779) \n \n [![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmd7of2TpLGqvckkrReWahnkxMWH6eMg5upXesfsujDCnW/image.png)](https://steemlogin.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steem.history&amp;approve=1) \n <sub>please click it!</sub> \n \n ![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWDnFh7Kcgj2gdPc5RgG9Cezc4Bapq8sQQJvrkxR8rx5z/image.png) \n <sub>(Go to https://steemit.com/~witnesses and type fbslo at the bottom of the page)</sub> \n \n </center>",
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      "author": "xucuo",
      "body": "## 问题拆分\n#### 1 无趋势\n#### 2 大持仓\n#### 3情绪无法接受\n\n\n*为何无趋势时容易大持仓？ \n*为何大持仓容易被洗？\n\n客观原因： \n目前的系统，持仓已止损风险计算，无趋势时犬牙交错很容易找到距离很近的伪止损点，容易根据距离很近的假止损点开出重仓。\n主观原因：通常发生在被洗或者长期持仓反复争夺无果之后，想报复时间与资金的亏损。\n\n解决方法：\n这种交易多数在策略外或者策略盲点，所以完善交易策略是解决的方法\n\n#####交易策略\n*交易品种\n*交易方向（逻辑）\n*交易周期\n*交易频率\n*试错次数\n*仓位（止损风险）\n*跟踪/目标（盈利范围）\n\n\n交易品种：外汇，股指，债券，波动率，金融属性大宗商品铜石油等\n交易方向：根据美联储政策与市场大概率可能的反应确定方向\n交易周期：1天以上至数周\n交易频率：每日1-2笔（上限）\n试错次数：两次\n仓位：          日线级别拐点\n跟踪：           同上",
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