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      "body": "![528.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmToRjpUbFzAWSPCssTZjUMwMaybGptnRUFsJuTTpX7s9q/528.jpg)\n\n昨天读了一下万维钢的书《智识分子－做个复杂的现代人》里面的若干篇，感觉细思极恐，所以，就其中一些有触动的做一下读书笔记。\n\n1.《哪种知识最可靠？》：这篇文章认为一个人是无法在短时间里把所有有用的知识穷尽的，《基督山伯爵》里神甫在两年时间里把他所有的知识传授给唐泰斯，就像中国的武侠小说中的武功秘籍一样，只是一厢情愿罢了。\n\n在作者看来，人类所知非常有限，科学的最大价值并不在于固定的知识，而在于获得这些知识的研究方法。哪些知识是最可靠的呢？首先是数学知识，其次是物理知识，慢慢到化学、电子工程和机械等，再到生物和医学等，实际上像经济学、心理学和政治学这些领域的可靠性就更低了。但是，这些最不可靠的知识也是我们在日常生活中最有用的知识。\n\n所以，作为智识分子，我们至少可以做到两点：\n\n第一、既然专家的建议并不一定好使，我们就千万不要执著于使用某一个特定的理论去做事，最好都抱着试试看的态度，这个理论不行就换另一个理论。\n\n第二、如果有人像神甫一样说他身怀宇宙真理般的理论，充满自信，最好别信他。\n\n2.《数字如潮人如水》：这篇文章讲我们已经进入了数字时代。例如赌场会在一个人在输到一定金额时，就会有一个服务员笑容可掬地走过来跟说：“看来您今天运气不太好啊，不如就玩到这里吧，我们的牛排很不错，要不您先去顿晚饭吧，算我们请客！”\n\n你知道这是为什么吗？\n\n这是因为人被数字化了。这家赌场知道每一位顾客的实时赌博记录，他们可以根据顾客的年龄、收入和住址等个人信息以及赌博习惯，计算该顾客的“疼痛点”：一晚上最多输多少钱下次还能再来玩。赌场一旦发现某位顾客今天输的钱接拍疼痛点，免费牛排之类的节目就出场了。\n\n这篇文章告诉我们，其实我们每个人都正在被数字化。每个人都是一大堆数字，各种商家和机构可以根据你的数字精准地估算出你的真实状况与想法。\n\n在这个新数字时代，人是一堆数字，我们到底是数字的主人，还是数字的奴隶？也许第一步是要知道数字的重要性。如果你不想数字玩，你最好学会玩数字。\n\n3.《把工作输给机器人》：在没有马车的时代，马车是城市交通的主力，越是发达的城市就越需要马车。但是与机器相比，马有自己的想法，马也最容易失控，这样就造成了很多马车带来的问题。后来是汽车和电车的出现解决了马车的所有问题。在《超级魔鬼经济学》里讲到，也许将来会有新的技术出来，以意想不到的方式解决我们今天面临的诸多危机。\n\n人工智能的出现将会使越来越多的人失业，自动驾驶使司机不再那么重要，以前寻呼机的被淘汰，TAM的出现使银行的服务员越来越少等等。\n\n在《与机器竞赛》这本书里讲到，未来将会有三类赢家和三类输家。\n\n* 高技术工人将是赢家，而低学历者将是输家；\n* 超级明星是赢家，第二名及其他所有人都是输家；\n* 资本是赢家，劳动者是输家。\n\n所以，三点建议：\n\n* 1.现在人工智能的长项是模式识别这样相对比较重复的工作，而机器还不擅长的则是解决问题的能力、灵感和创造性。所以，我们应该学点艺术、学点创新，学点领导力，学点企业家精神。\n* 2.与其跟机器竞争，不如带着机器一起跟别人竞争，未来属于那些善于利用机器的人。\n* 3.既然第二名没有意义，我们可以开辟各种细分市场，在一个新的小领域内当第一名。就像“不占一帅就占一怪”的策略。\n\n4.《你比机器强在哪儿？》：计算机时代、互联网时代、手机时代之后，未来十年，将开启人工智能时代，或者至少是初级阶段：认知计算时代。“华生”一旦普及，职场将天翻地覆。\n\n“华生”是IBM的人工智能系统。它已经比任何医生懂得都多，它不再是简单搜索关键词，而是在相当程度上能够“理解”你的问题，它可以用于疾病诊断和提供治疗建议。这样的系统，很快就会全面进入医学、法律和金融咨询领域。\n\n5.《怎样杀死海星？》：新疆暴恐案的恐怖分子和比特币、P2P盗版下载，以及维基百科有一个共同点——他们都是去中心化的组织形态。\n\n面对去中心化的三种策略：\n\n第一个策略是改变环境。既然你们是靠一种意识形态联系在一起，我就让你这个意识形态没有市场。\n\n第二个策略是先把海星变成蜘蛛再杀。\n\n第三个策略是把自己去中心化。\n\n**常识是我们的敌人，我们即将迎来一个“不换思想就换人”的时代。**",
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