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      "body": "如果你是强盗，你要抢劫别人的财富你最害怕什么？答案，最害怕人们互相帮助被围攻。\n​狼群最喜欢没有组织、没有装备的松散羊群，既得利益集团最喜欢没有组织、没有反抗能力松散人群。然后食其肉、寝其皮。\n​1，凡是反民族主义，都是既得利益集团走狗。\n因为:一面，教人瓦解民族和社会组织，破坏不同地间族群联系。一面，教人肆出卖民族和社会利益换利益。\n当地区与地区的族群互不认同，你们出事与我何干？这地方纵使毁灭与我何干？\n\n​2，凡是女权，都是既得利益集团的走狗。\n因为:一面，教人男女对立，男性去雄化，教女人怎么激怒男人。一面教女人贱舔身边男人外的任何男人。\n雄性是暴力反抗的主力，女人是嘴强动物，让女人把男人搞成仇人，男人就会被牵制在女权嘴炮中被彻底激怒产生厌女情欲。既不会帮助女人，还会和既得利益一起压迫这种女人。\n\n我曾经说过社会黑社会化，但社会黑社会化的同时，所有社会规则也在走狗化。\n\n用黑社会和走狗，维护既得利益集团统治。女权和高知，是走狗中最有战斗力战斗狗。\n\n那些天天仇视民族主义，攻击民族主义的所谓的高级知识分子，都是走狗。",
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      "body": "现在我们已经半只脚踏入乱世，不要抱有幻想趋势会恢复过去快速发展状态，长期的停滞和倒退才是真相，甚至不排除战争风险。\n1，国内。现在是经济危机时期，不要对经济好转有任何期待。危机只会越来越大。\n因为，现在是经济负循环，也就是越循环财富越少，经济越生产越亏损。危机除了越来越大没有其他任何可能。\n\n2，国际。世界经济已经深度内卷，所有国家都在想把危机转嫁给别人。鼓动别国内乱，鼓励底层去死，吞并弱国转移矛盾是几乎所有玩家默认选择。国际局势会越来紧张。\n\n3，以上趋势，究其根源是，无论国内还是国际，寄生的既得利益群体，已经远超社会承载能力。各国社会内乱近在眼前。只能将矛盾对外转嫁。\n\n我们大多数人还跟傻子一样，抱有各种幻想，你是上层那也算了，关键你是底层畜生，现实已经赤裸裸告诉了这世界的规则，还要执迷不悟。认不清自己会再未来过得很痛苦，认清现实你才能更好生活下去。\n\n我反复强调我们社会会重回8090年代社会状态。",
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      "author": "wuqing1",
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      "title": "Xu Jiayin incident",
      "body": "Being a person is hard, being a celebrity is even harder, and being a big celebrity with a lot of debt is even harder.\n\nThese two years, Xu Jiayin is very difficult, he not only have to plug the two trillion yuan hole, but also to prove that he is still alive.\n\nToday, Guangzhou Yuexiu police Weibo do not know why, suddenly only issued 3 words: Xu Jiayin.\n\nAlthough it was deleted immediately, but ice smart users quickly screenshots, leaving evidence.\n\nJust at this time, the news about Boss Xu's misfortune went viral on the Internet, and there are nose and eyes, let people believe it.\n\nXu Jiayin reportedly jumped from the 19th floor of the headquarters of Hunan Evergrande in Changsha.\n\nIt is estimated that many people see this news, the first reaction is definitely not concerned about the life and death of the boss Xu, but how to do the money owed to me, how to do not pay the building?\n\n'Don't worry,' one netizen joked. 'Even if I jump from the 100-story Jinmao building, the bank will spread the mat to 99 and a half stories.'\n\nXu Jiayin can not die, Evergrande can not fail, this is the people's voice, the bottom line of the bank.\n\nSure enough, the rumor goes that Xu did jump and was caught by the fire department.\n\nIf so, the Oscar statuette of the year is his.\n\nJust think how much wisdom and courage it takes for a 64-year-old comrade to climb to 19 floors of a building and jump onto a fire cushion exactly in order to show his attitude of sacrificing his life to get out of debt.\n\nThis kind of play works in theory, but it's too unrealistic to perform.\n\nRight now, the information is mixed.\n\nAccording to the Securities Times, some Evergrande insiders denied the rumor that Xu Jiayin jumped from the building, saying that on the morning of December 2, some Evergrande employees reported the relevant work to Xu Jiayin, and at around 13:00, Xu Jiayin also issued a voice message about strengthening the resumption of work and production in the group of relevant Evergrande executives.\n\nSince there is no accident, why not make a serious statement in the name of Evergrande Group and investigate the rumormongers for legal liability? Why not make it clear whether Boss Xu is in Changsha or not? What can the voice message from the senior executives prove?\n\nThere are too many people in Evergrande Group. Just fabricating any insider or insider is just adding to the chaos and giving rise to a lot of speculation.\n\nMore bizarrely, Chen Zhaohua, vice-president of Evergrande, said he chose not to believe it.\n\nWhat is unbelief? The implication is that he doesn't know if his boss is alive or dead and has no way to find out.\n\nSlanders, vice - general can not find the boss, are not strange?\n\nSo did Xu Jiayin jump off the building? Before he made a public appearance, the chances of jumping or not jumping were 50-50.\n\nLet's start with the possibility of jumping. To tell the truth, owing so much money, I can't stand it on anyone. Boss Xu absolutely gave birth to the idea of standing on the roof.\n\nBut after all, what about Evergrande's mess?\n\nIn the glory days, a number of younger brothers and family in-laws followed Xu family printing behind the buttocks to eat spicy drink, no one can rely on the critical moment.\n\nTherefore, Xu Jiayin's banner could not be toppled. He had to hold up even if he did not hold up.\n\nEven if you can't see the hope, all the burn ran to the roof, it just shows that the attitude, otherwise how so clever fire rushed to the mat spread accurately.\n\nThat is to say, jumping off a building and not dying, it shows that the heart is still attached and reluctant to give up, still have the last thoughts.\n\nAnother possibility is that there is no such thing as jumping off a building, it is just a rumor.\n\nSo the question is, who is creating this rumor, and who does it benefit?\n\nAlong with the rumors of Xu Jiayin, there is the dissolution of Evergrande auto industry and unpaid wages, urban legend Hengchi Auto large-scale work stoppage unpaid wages, Hengchi gave the rhetoric is optimization and elimination, the overall proportion is only about 10%, 25% employees suspended for 1 to 3 months.\n\nThe car was the last straw for Mr. Xu, and if that hope was dashed it would be a jump off a building.\n\nA deeper meaning, is the New Year's Day, Yang Bailao and Huang Shiren we have seen, the New Year such as clearance, every New Year is the day when the creditors come to the door, by people around the debt and not take money to taste is not good.\n\nXu Jiayin is a big boss, how would you like to be humiliated in the New Year.\n\nNow the rumor of jumping out of the building, and only send voice does not show up, the biggest benefit is that it can stop the mouth of the creditor, the debt collectors shut out the door.\n\nFrom this, we can judge that Evergrande is the biggest beneficiary of this rumor and Xu Jiayin himself. As for who made the rumor, it is self-evident.\n\nWhether it's true or not, for Xu, \"jumping\" is an attitude and a way to buy time.\n\nTime is running out for Evergrande, but they won't be good for anyone if they lose.\n\nOf course, we hope that this rumor is just a farce, farce after the more important thing is to clean up the mess, can recover a little damage to recover a little damage.\n\nThe New Year's Day is coming, and life is really difficult. A few thieves are not afraid. Don't climb on the roof.\n![94127e65414139bd61435ceb6e26b58.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcpDRhC34BqzPu2S88NTaKx25JtdPNUvmZ9GUAQvpHPxU/94127e65414139bd61435ceb6e26b58.jpg)",
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      "author": "wuqing1",
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      "title": "许家印事件，反转反转再反转...",
      "body": "做人难，做名人更难，做欠了一屁股债的大名人难上加难。\n这两年，许家印太难了，他不仅要堵两万亿的窟窿，还要时刻证明自己还活着。\n今天，广州越秀警方微博不知何故，突然只发了3个字：许家印。\n尽管随即予以删除，但是冰雪聪明的网友迅速截图，留下了证据。\n恰在此时，网上关于许老板发生不幸的消息疯传不止，而且有鼻子有眼，让人不信都不行。\n传闻许家印跳楼了，地点长沙，从湖南恒大总部19楼跳下来的。\n估计很多人看到这个消息，第一反应绝对不是关心许老板的生死，而是欠我的钱怎么办，没交的楼怎么办？\n有网友开玩笑说，放心吧，哪怕从100层高的金茂楼顶往下跳，银行也会把垫子铺到99层半。\n许家印不能死，恒大不能倒，这是人民的呼声，银行的底线。\n果不其然，传闻中又说许老板确实跳了，然后被消防接住了。\n若真是这个样子，年度奥斯卡小金人非他莫属。\n大家想想，一位64岁老同志，为了表明舍身撇债的态度，爬到19层高楼，又准确地跳到消防气垫上，这得有多大智慧和勇气啊。\n这种剧本理论上行得通，演起来太不现实。\n现在，各方面的信息比较混乱。\n据证券时报消息，有恒大内部人士否认许家印跳楼传闻，说12月2日上午有恒大员工向许家印汇报了相关工作，并且13时左右，许家印在恒大相关高管群还发布了一条关于加强复工复产的语音消息。\n这种貌似正本清源的消息其实也含混不清，既然没有发生意外，何不以恒大集团名义作出严肃声明、追究造谣者法律责任，为何不讲清许老板有没有在长沙，还有高管群里的语音消息又能证明什么？\n恒大集团人太多了，随便杜撰一个知情者或内部人士都行，如此辟谣简直就是乱上添乱，让外界生出诸多猜测。\n更诡异的是，恒大副总裁陈朝华则表示：他选择不相信。\n何谓不相信？言下之意，就是他不知老板是死是活，也没有渠道确认。\n谣诼纷纷，副总找不到老总，岂不怪哉？\n那么许家印究竟有没有跳楼呢？在他没有公开露面前，跳与不跳的可能性，都是50%。\n先说跳的可能性，说实话，欠了那么多钱，放在谁身上都受不了，许老板绝对生出过站到天台上的想法。\n但是一死百了，恒大的烂摊子怎么办？\n当年风光的时候，一众小弟和家族姻亲跟在许家印屁股后面吃香喝辣，关键时刻没人能靠得上。\n因此，许家印这面大旗不能倒，他撑也得撑，不撑也得撑。\n就算看不到希望，万念俱焚跑到天台上，也只是表明求放过的态度，要不然咋就那么巧消防赶过来把垫子精准铺上。\n也就是说，跳楼而没死，那就说明心里还有留恋和不舍，还残存最后的念想。\n另外一种可能，就是压根没跳楼这回事，纯属告谣生事。\n那么问题来了，谁在造这种谣言呢，这个谣言对谁有利呢？\n伴随许家印传闻而来的，还有恒大汽车产业的解散和欠薪，坊间传说恒驰汽车大规模停工欠薪，恒驰给出的说辞是优化淘汰，整体比例只有10%左右，25%员工停薪留职1至3个月。\n汽车是许老板的最后一根稻草，如果这个希望破灭了也是跳楼级别的打击。\n更深一层意思，就是马上过年了，杨白劳与黄世仁大家都看过，过年如过关，每到过年时候就是债主上门的日子，被人围着讨债又拿不出钱来的滋味并不好受。\n许家印是当过大老板的人，哪愿大过年被人上门羞辱。\n现在闹出跳楼传闻，又只发语音不露面，最大好处就是可以堵住债主的嘴，把讨债人拒之门外。\n由此可以判断，这个谣言的最大获益者是恒大，是许家印本人，至于是谁造的谣，那就不言自明了。\n无论真跳假跳，对许家印来说，“跳楼”是一种态度，是在争取时间。\n虽然留给恒大的时间不多了，但他们败掉之后对谁都没有好处。\n当然，我们更希望这场跳楼传闻只是一场闹剧，闹剧之后更重要的是收拾烂摊子，能挽回一点损失就挽回一点损失吧。\n马上过年了，日子确实都不好过，多几个贼都不怕，千万别往天台上爬。",
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      "body": "今天出炉的PMI数据不算乐观。\n\n11月30日，国家统计局发布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为48.0%、46.7%和47.1%，低于上月1.2、2.0和1.9个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体有所回落。\n其实PMI数据不好看的也不止是我国一家，欧美发达国家的数据一样不好看。\n\n欧元区11月制造业PMI初值为47.3，好于预期值46，10月为46.4。欧元区11月服务业PMI为48.6，与10月持平，好于市场预期的48。\n\n美国10月Markit制造业PMI初值49.9，为2020年6月份以来首次跌破枯荣线，预期51，前值52。10月Markit服务业PMI初值46.6，预期49.5，前值49.3，连续四个月萎缩。10月Markit综合PMI初值47.3，预期49.3，前值49.5。\n\n欧洲的好是因为预期太差，又因为天气出乎意料的暖和，导致能源价格下跌，给经济总算是回了点血，不至于往更坏的地方崩。美国的数据更是戳破了所谓经济向好，就业超预期的假象，无论是制造业还是服务业都在持续萎缩，不及预期，不是说好的制造业回流，经济过热导致的通胀吗？\n\n其实我之前写文章的时候说过这里的问题，想想看2021年全球贸易额约为28万亿美元，比2020年增长23%。贸易是什么，就是你花钱啊，花钱陡然增长了23%，但你收入有增长那么多吗？\n\n有点常识，你家消费增长远比收入增长来得高，结果会怎样？当然是落下了亏空啊！所谓出来混的总要还的，今年不还明年还。\n\n2021年全球贸易为什么增加了那么多？靠的是美国疯狂印钞各种放水，世界上充斥着美元的味道，大家疯狂的买买买呗。\n\n还记得2021年的运费暴涨吗？但为什么在运费持续上涨的时候，航运公司的股价却开始下跌？\n\n很简单，资本市场早就看出来了，这种爆发式的增长是不可持久的，现在涨得越多，未来为此买单的时间就越长，别看它现在赚了多少，你要算算未来它会亏多少！\n\n有2021年疯狂的抢购，才有2022年美国零售巨头们的各种清库存，据说到现在库存压力还在。\n\n今年美元陡然转向，全球由美元泛滥到美元收紧也就一夜之间，谁能想到现在美元定存能干到4%呢，这么高价格拿到手的美元，做什么才能把这个钱赚回来？\n\n所以一切投资都没有把钱存给美联储划算，于是全球经济扩张，债务循环都被美联储的一番骚操作给直接打折了。\n\n美国为什么天天要公布就业数据来粉饰太平？因为美国所谓好看的就业都是特朗普坚持赶走黑劳工所赐，社会上低价零工工作因为没有足够的打工人愿意干，导致到处缺人，而那些高端服务行业呢？什么硅谷的高薪职位，这不都在疯狂裁撤吗？\n\n但就业数据写的是平均数，就好像你从大厂被裁员，跑去送外卖，一样叫就业啊！但就业更就业之间还是有差别的，这个差别在就业数据上当然看不出来，但你看看PMI数据就很清楚了，这个国家劳动产出是在收缩的。\n\n全球化时代里，生产萎缩根本原因就是需求下滑，所谓为什么需求下滑？难道全球老百姓都不想买点好东西来改善生活吗？除了欧美10亿人，全球总人口还有70亿呢。\n\n很可惜，需求不是你想有就有的，金融顶层供给被欧美给霸占了，昨天它疯狂印钞，让你有了错觉，以为从今以后日子都是美得飞起，敞开了花没所谓，于是各种需求雪片一样飞向那些生产制造国。\n\n但今天，人家突然改想法了，逼着你还钱了，不还不行，人家加息缩表，世界上美元越来越少了，你得做更多的事才能换来原来那么多美元，还得还人家的阎王账，那只好勒紧裤腰带，抑制需求，甚至连口饱饭都不敢吃。\n\n巴西新总统卢拉流着眼泪说要在任期里解决底层民众的温饱问题，明明那里拥有全世界最肥沃的土地，人均粮食产量是中国的三倍以上，怎么搞成老百姓连饭都没得吃的结果？\n\n因为老百姓想吃饭，但没有钱来买，不是需求不足，而是分配发生了大问题，人均打金融战，就是这个玩法，通过操控全球货币流向，人为制造出经济危机来，只要能剧烈的短期内一起爆发，立刻就能用各种高杠杆的金融工具把你几十年积累的财富掠夺一空。\n\n但从去年开始，中国制造并没有盲目扩张产能，拉高大宗商品价格又被地产暴雷，需求下滑给打破了，今年再利用俄乌冲突挤兑一把，一边搞出能源危机来消耗你的外汇储备，一面迅速拉起美元利率，忽悠大量傻叉换美元出逃。\n\n现在看结果，这把美国策动的收割又失手了，到今天再继续大喊加息，美国经济崩的比我们还要快，因为实体经济相对于虚拟经济来说，耐受力还是高了许多，此外，我们这边是反其道而行之，美国收紧货币，我们这边放宽货币，直接对冲利空。\n\n现在基本可以确定中国房地产已经逐渐实现了软着陆，美国地产的雷还在路上，那么难题就要留给美联储了，到底是要把实体经济霍霍成啥样了，才能达成自杀目标？\n\n这几天又是鹰派又是鸽派的混乱发言，今天晚上，美联储主席又要出来叨逼叨了，不要看他说什么，也不要被他的那些假动作给迷惑住，我们要以常识来判断未来！\n\n为啥我们这边PMI数据收缩就要用宽松的货币政策来对冲？因为利率就是金融在实体经济里的抽点，日子不好过了，金融让点利润。现在美国加息，就是让钱的价格变得更贵了，在实体经济实际收缩的情况下，美国人用高利率来引诱资金从各行各业，方方面面出逃，这就是逼着实体经济快点死。\n\n当然了，如果你经济体本身负债率低其实问题也不大，关键是国债都已经超过30万亿美元了，就问问拿什么去还利息？靠继续印钞票？那就是打了紧缩的脸，放弃紧缩，就是举白旗投降。\n\n现在全球的流通性或者有另一个方式来填补，那就是加快人民币国际化，没了美元，难道大家都不生活了吗？\n\n最近中油资本被热炒，这是在炒人民币国际化的预期，下个月中阿会谈，人民币石油或者会取得突破。\n\n所有的统计数据代表的都是历史，而我们投资着眼的是未来，写这个的时候，看到美国公布的就业数据，居然都不及预期了，看来美联储也有点要扛不住的意思了，毕竟那么贵借过来的美元，你是很难找到地方投资的，只能搞虚拟经济的击鼓传花，偏偏现在美国资产都在高位。\n\n******\n\n11月的最后一天，长者逝世，他主政的年代过去20年了，当时我年纪还小，阅历不深，所以也没有什么特别的深刻的印象，只记得有次跟同学一起看电视，同学惊呼，哎呀，跟我爷爷长得好像哟。\n\n我没有见过同学的爷爷，但同学也戴着同款的眼镜，看上去少年老成。\n\n后来有一天我在逼乎上看帖，看到了一个回复。问题是：\n\n历史上哪一位人物对时事的超前预判令你拍案叫绝？\n图片\n\n这是长者在十几年前甚至更早的时候对芯片行业发展的看法，中间一度被全球化鼓吹者认为是过虑了，有钱还怕买不到东西？\n\n后来这一切都如长者所料。\n\n一个时代终将过去，一个人终将逝去，但他做的一切有利于国家和人民的事，都不会被遗忘。\n![330af8fda78cd47545bd78577ff5cb5d_1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRagmXdLWgrfZGu3uiYGGiYr5PVW9hsiDjBzxPDJePnW4/330af8fda78cd47545bd78577ff5cb5d_1.jpg)",
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      "title": "The history of Chinese civilization over 10,000 years",
      "body": "First of all, I don't agree with the African origin theory of human origin, that is, the origin of modern humans out of Africa. Ok, let's look at the historical context of Chinese civilization that I have summarized with my current knowledge.\n\n\n\nOne, the origin. Early Ancient Mythological period. At least 10,000 years ago.\n\nThis is the origin of human civilization. Corresponding myths include Chao, Flinten, Nuwa, Kuafu and Shennong.\n\nAt this time, a relatively complete myth and legend emerged, and reflected the event record in a mythological way, such as Nuwa repairing the sky (the earliest flood memory), Kua Fu chasing the Sun (astronomical record), Shennong eating a hundred grasses.\n\n\"In ancient times, there were few people and many animals, and the people were defeated by animals, insects and snakes. A sage made a nest of wood to avoid the evil of the crowd, and the people were happy with it, so that the king of the world, the name is Chao Shi. MinShi fruit Luo clams, smelling of urine stink and damage abdomen stomach, people more disease. There are sages who drill into flintlocks and make fire to make shame, and the people say, so that the king of the world, the name is called Flintman.\" Han Fei-Zi Wu-zhi\n\n\"In ancient times, the husband did not plow, and the vegetation was sufficient to eat; A woman does not weave, but a garment of beast's skin is sufficient.\" Han Fei-Zi Wu-zhi\n\nDuring this period, human beings mostly lived on hunting, there was a couple system, agriculture had been enlightened, culture began to flourish and spread, but civilization had not yet emerged.\n\n\n\nDue to the influence of the last glacial period, which began 75,000 years ago and ended 11,000 years ago, the human pattern was greatly reshuffled and a new pattern was formed. The human distribution in East Asia is:\n\nFirst, the core region of East Asia and Eastern Asia (yellow race) are divided into three parts due to geographical isolation.\n\n1. The northern Mobei Mongolian region in the north of the desert is the r and q series of North Asian yellow race. The ancient North Asians.\n\n2. The Great Wall area is oq, nc in northeast China, and o3 Yellow River. The ancient Yellow River type.\n\n3, coastal o1, Yangtze o1b yellow race. The ancient Yangtze River type.\n\n\n\nSecond, other ethnic groups in and around East Asia are:\n\n1. Xinjiang is the Northern European subrace, belonging to the East European subrace and the West European subrace, as well as the Yellow River type Yellow race.\n\n2. Siberian, Nordic and North Asian peoples lived together.\n\n3, Southeast Asia is the ancient Asian black majority.\n\n4. The Western regions to the west of Xinjiang are mainly white people in Western Europe and Asia.\n\n5, Tibet is a high mountain d population.\n\n6. Ancient people in Guangxi Region.\n\n\n\nSecond, the late period of ancient mythology. Three Emperors period. 10,000 to 5,000 years.\n\nCorresponding legends and records are as follows: the ancestors of civilization Fuxi, Nuwa, Shennong, etc., different versions of the three emperors (Emperor, Emperor, Emperor) especially the legend of man Emperor, showing that after the inheritance and development of the early culture, the civilization has emerged.\n\n\n\n1. The earliest civilization site found in China is the Jiahu Site in Henan Province 10,000 years ago. It is mainly the gene of the Yellow River basin and is influenced by rice farming in the south and millet farming in the north. For the first time, Chinese civilizations converged and formed primitive Chinese culture.\n\nNote that half of the area affected by the Jiahu site is in the Han River of the Yangtze River, which is the junction of the northern and southern water systems. Therefore, it can be found that the Jiahu culture population contains a part of the early ancient southern genes. That is, the mixing of genes between north and South occurred 10,000 years ago. The embryonic form of Northern Han gene was formed.\n\n\n\n2. The Jiahu site area is located in the center of ancient water transportation, which was catalyzed by water transportation and tribal commerce and formed the earliest starting point of Chinese civilization.\n\nAt this time, the genetic population of the Yellow River and the genetic population of the Yangtze River influenced each other, and for fifteen thousand years, the civilizations in the south and north of China showed a star-shaped state.\n\n\n\nHowever, due to different conditions, rice farming is done in the south, as well as beans in buffalo. North millet agriculture, as well as millet millet cattle and horses.\n\nThe production mode of the two sides is relatively isolated, and the influence is less than that of the North-South gene mixing.\n\n\n\n3. With the Gujiahu cultural area as the center, the population of the ancient Yellow River and the Ancient Yangtze River expanded rapidly to the surrounding areas with the crushing of productivity 10,000 to 5,000 years ago, and the population and culture spread rapidly. The primitive Chinese civilization spread to the world. First, Chinese civilization expanded vigorously.\n\n\n\nFirst, near the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Pearl River and Liao River in modern China\n\nThe ancient Northerners expanded and formed Dongyi, Xiqiang and Beidi.\n\nThe ancient southerners expanded, forming Sanmiao, Baiyue and Baipu.\n\n\n\nSecond, beyond the Yangtze River and Yellow River. To the north.\n\nUnder the influence of the primitive Chinese civilization represented by the wheel, the qno Yellow population of the ancient Yellow River continued to spread its culture and population, using the wheel to reach the outer Mongolia of North Asia, Northeast Asia Siberia and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.\n\nThe formation of ancient inland plateau, nomadic, fishing and hunting peoples. That is, Qinghai-Tibet includes South Asia, forming the ancient Qiang od; The northeast includes the other northeast can be called the ancient Donghu people oc; The northern part of Mongolia is called the Ancient Turkic people qr.\n\nA part of the rqn yellow race in North Asia learned advanced technology and breeding, and expanded westward under the squeeze of the ancient Yellow River civilization and the population of the ancient Yellow River. Due to the small population, they rushed into the white people in Central Asia, gradually whitened and merged into the white people to form the Indo-European language family, and expanded to the Western Asian world, forming the r and n white people.\n\n\n\nThird, south of the Yangtze River, Yellow River and Pearl River.\n\nUnder the influence of the primitive Chinese civilization represented by ships, the yellow race of the ancient Yangtze River expanded southward.\n\nSome entered Indochina Peninsula, forming the South Asian language family, Cambodia.\n\nSome sailed into the South China Sea, forming the Austronesian language family. And mixed with some of the genes of Southeast Asian natives to form the first wave of Malays, known as the original Malays.\n\nSome of them made their way to Japan, where they became part of the early Sishu people.\n![7ad4400d7bb6920d09d22612c5fd0cc.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZFMWbtzfxDHznyJF8Cj81AFkcj8Q8bVQrXaxSfbHCJvs/7ad4400d7bb6920d09d22612c5fd0cc.jpg)\n\n![8d7dfcb61ff397e57f7c823ba24728a.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRdH3cALHqEcZYsgVjC2T3nsqhN7UFDamXdTYu8HG9tbj/8d7dfcb61ff397e57f7c823ba24728a.jpg)\n\n![40d13e04da4dd0563a29c5e9c833423.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmf6Ti98KoSAgwC2CNPqB9RB2zG7DLV13QV1StcRdatfHu/40d13e04da4dd0563a29c5e9c833423.jpg)\n\n![61d3dde01a06602b2f5a50cba96e585.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeQxiNtowzTxu3wg8hGeLvic66DDiGVfTo7z3iBNK3FDS/61d3dde01a06602b2f5a50cba96e585.jpg)\n\n![06425b611e54931ca968ce4bc6d068b.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmesZzH6E2XpYstaQyUJh1AY7CHEa865dTtGKx24rB8SyV/06425b611e54931ca968ce4bc6d068b.jpg)\n\n![85270a01bca39ec26192dd19077b064.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmR4emZpNMjSHbNSBuasxW5uzpiK3XP594pW9aB5kvRzib/85270a01bca39ec26192dd19077b064.jpg)\n\n![f4fa7268254e1dd5a25fe293087912d.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYuabZtgFgTzhpmFqRCtLweuStVtd6ARfr6mR5yL4BLnX/f4fa7268254e1dd5a25fe293087912d.jpg)",
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      "title": "The End of the War in Ukraine",
      "body": "I myself do not want to take sides with Russia and Ukraine. I will only make objective comments here.\n\nAs for the future war situation, many people think that Russia is dissatisfied with Putin, Russia has no other way to go, Russia's morale is loose, and the war will end with the victory of Ukraine. Zhai Shan-ying even thinks that Russia will collapse. In my opinion, the current situation shows that this is impossible, and Russia is far from the point of self-collapse.\n\nThe main political factions in Russia are nativist and pro-Western. There are two main nativist groups: one is the Russian nationalist group, represented by the Russian Yuexi Strelkov, who is hostile to domestic oligarchs and corrupt politics, advocates the rule of experts, and dreams of \"recovering the homeland\"; One is that the ultraconservatives, also known as Great Slavism, stand for Dukin, the Russian brain, and dream of a Russia-European Union, a great Slavic union.\n\nNote that Putin is the representative of the pro-Western faction, representing the interests of the professional literati, oligarchs, middle class and pro-Western intellectuals in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Putin's men directly control the two private forces of Wagner mercenaries and Kazarov Jr., as well as many younger brothers under Putin, which is the basic policy of Putin.\n\n\n\nThe current situation in Ukraine is the creation of Russia's pro-Western Vladimir Putin. Yes, the situation in Ukraine has come to this point because Putin has been too pro-Western. Russia's current internal failures, if they are to be liquidate, are not to liquidate the pro-combatants, but to liquidate the pro-Westerners.\n\nIn the Russian people, the mainstream Russian public opinion is also the main war, in the Russian people, the Russians generally believe that the Americans have lied to them, and the people have no room for the pro-Western faction. Arguably, if the war in eastern Ukraine fails again, Mr Putin and the pro-Western interests that once supported him will be liquidated by Russia's own people. Now even many in Russia are calling for Putin to be tried for treason.\n\n\n\nSince the war began, the pro-Western faction of Russian politics has had little domestic market. Now that the war in Ukraine is going like this, the Kharkiv dividend Man is going like this, and so many professional soldiers have been killed, the failure of Putin's decision has to answer to the Pro-Russian forces in Russia and East Ukraine.\n\nTherefore, Putin's four state public investment in Russia, but also to ease domestic local discontent, to the domestic people.\n\n\n\nIn particular, the Nord Stream gas pipeline was bombed. Seeing that the use of natural gas to negotiate a little sign of easing between Russia and Europe, the bargaining chip was blown up, completely cutting off the possibility of a coordinated truce between Germany. This is the second time that Russia has been badly played by the United States, and it would be fair to say that it has been humiliated outright. It can be said that the United States is deliberately helping the imperial Russian faction to eliminate the pro-Western faction.\n\n\n\nTo some extent, the failure of Kharkiv and the failure of the dividend Man is the failure of the war in Russia, forcing Putin to use the main war.\n\nNow Putin can only get serious about mobilizing for war and fighting an all-out war. When Russia mobilized for war, it meant that Putin had no way out.\n\nAfter the mobilization of war, Russian nationalism and Slavism would become the absolute mainstream, and Russian pro-Western factions would disappear completely. At the same time, these local factions would mobilize the masses through the army and establish a wartime system, so as to purge the corrupt bureaucrats and the power of oligopolies and carry out domestic system reform, so as to continue to consolidate the regime and win over the people. And on this path, whoever is not resolute will be cleaned up, and if Putin and his interests are not resolute, they will be cleaned up as well. This is the power of ideology. While it is true that Russia will be weakened, it is impossible to expect Russia to collapse on its own.\n\n\n\nAs for expecting the United States and NATO to rescue Ukraine and collapse Russia, it is even more ridiculous. The global strategic capability of the American capital group is beyond our imagination. It is definitely not so brainless. These words can be used as a slogan.\n\nRussia is the main reason why the US can get involved in Europe. Without Russia, what does Europe need the US and NATO for? Then the EU will rise and the US will be excluded from Europe.\n\nThe war in Ukraine is officially the best way for the United States to control Europe. If Russia is trapped in the battlefield in Ukraine, Eastern Europe will become a big camp that absolutely obeys the United States, which is of much greater strategic significance than pulling Russia out of Ukraine.\n\n\n\nTherefore, Russia cannot collapse, and a mobilized Russia will naturally occupy most of Ukraine, and the outcome is not in doubt. It is the inevitable result of the game between the United States, Russia and Europe\n\n\n\nIn the end, Ukraine will fall into a war between Russia and Europe. The US only needs to control Eastern Europe to control the situation. Then it will withdraw from the US and Europe and focus on West Asia, Iran and us.\n\n \n![330af8fda78cd47545bd78577ff5cb5d_1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRagmXdLWgrfZGu3uiYGGiYr5PVW9hsiDjBzxPDJePnW4/330af8fda78cd47545bd78577ff5cb5d_1.jpg)",
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      "body": "我曾说过，中国主动改革的窗口期：最佳时间为2025年前，最晚为2030年左右的几年。许多人来问什么意思，这里解释一下，其实就是以前说过的：“中国未来2年左右时间内（2023年6月前），中国未来10年左右时间内的社会体系风险。的最佳应对时间。”\n\n我在作品集里提过一个盛世拐点的概念，并以此在18年预言了内卷化时代即将到来，然而关键的问题是盛世拐点后：\n1，往往跟随大规模社会体系动荡的危险。\n2，度过动荡期，然后才是盛世拐点后的：改革发展，守成固化，沉沦循环(中等收入陷阱)三个方向选择。\n也就是中国未来一断时间，恰恰是社会阶段最危险的盛世拐点时期。比如：秦朝的突然崩溃，汉武帝后期的农民大起义，隋朝突然崩溃，唐明皇时爆发的安禄山，乾隆末期突然爆发的白莲教。都是盛世后的社会体系转轨时的大动荡。\n此时看似依然是盛世，但社会质变和制度转轨恰恰是社会矛盾集体爆发之时。\n\n2年左右，10年左右，两个时间，就是我能给出危险的两个最晚时间节点。既是主动改革的最晚节点（过了这两个节点，改革就太晚了），也是可能爆发的极大社会危险的节点，仅供粉丝参考，有识之士也可多多注意这两个节点预防问题发生。\n\n第一，社会底层风险。先说近的两年内的底层社会危险。\n捡着眼下最浅显最直接的问题谈，我们注意到三个现象：\n1，地方债务太高，公务员工资缺口。\n2，民营破产与居民债务杠杆过高，带来的大规模企业和百姓破产潮。\n3，地方高杠杆危机，有引爆地方中小银行和地方债的风险，从而给上三种基层经济（公务员，民营，居民）雪上加霜的风险。\n公务员对应基层小吏；私企对应民营资本、商人；个人债务对应普通百姓。这对应了社会三大群体。（这是古代造反的主力群体。刘邦小吏，黄巢商人，朱元璋农民。）\n此时，在社会经济停滞大背景下，我注意到执法权力下放的趋势。执法权力下放意味着底层小吏重新拥有了类似90年代初执法和劳动教育的权力。相当于，给予基层小吏大量控制底层权力（镇压底层权力），相当于给了地方小吏更大幅度压榨底层权力。\n要知道，目前的社会陷入内卷化，既得利益增长超过百姓利益增长后，底层小吏收入锐减，自然会拼命找更底层要钱。这就相当于给了小吏和百姓、商人大规模摩擦起火的条件。 \n那么一旦控制不当，很快小吏阶层会与大范围失业群体、民营资本将全面擦出的类似90年代时的危险火花。\n\n其他因素说过很多，请前翻朋友圈或文章，这是我们社会底层风险状况的概述。\n\n第二，社会上层风险。然后再从上层结构看看近两年风险，监察机构正在统辖控制行政，执法，立法，舆论。形成官僚对社会的绝对控制。\n这点可以参考苏联历史轨迹来看，克格勃逐渐帮助权力机构绝对控制社会，绝对的社会控制形成绝对僵化和绝对的社会问题。因此一旦完成这种社会制度，僵化，迟钝，低效，没有活力，思想齐喑，将会阻碍思想与社会改变的发生，社会僵化内部高压将导致矛盾无法内部解决，进而外部转移。此时苏联与美国的军事攻势形成对撞，那么火花就会出现形成苏联僵化体系下的攻势——出兵阿富汗就是典型。\n也就是一旦内部压力太大，不排除这两个节点压力外泄爆发战争的可能。而如果不能转移出去，扩大资源，则是内部体系动荡风险的发生，苏联解体则是外泄不成功，内压过大导致的。\n\n其他因素同样往前翻朋友圈或文章，不再叙述，这是上层建筑体系带来风险状况概述。\n\n第三，十年左右的风险。我们假设度过这危险阶段，按照现状持续下去，十年后，如果没有趋势的改动，脱离了这个窗口，社会很可能即进入沉沦循环中。\n届时，经济必然就形成类似计划经济的市场经济，替代掉现在的经济体系，以维持最低经济循环。管理系统，暴力系统，意识系统同样如此，维持最低循环。\n社会维系最低限度的循环，且社会在负循环中不断变差，会在“公有制”社会或“官有制”社会中出现生产匮乏，经济危机的情况。这就是苏联末期面临生活物资短缺原因。这也就是我们通常说的中等收入陷阱。(“私有制”社会或“资有制”社会则体现为私有企业瓜分一切，生产过剩，经济危机。)\n因为官僚社会里，权力全部上收，既得利益官僚会垄断一切经济，暴力，管理，意识体系资源，结果就是运行效率越来越低，最终只能维持最低层次运转，社会陷入中等收入陷阱中。\n\n第四，假设十年后，真的陷入中等收入陷阱。官僚既得利益控制的社会最终是什么样呢？详细直观的说，苏联和之后俄国早就给出了答案。\n苏联官僚社会，既得利益控制官僚系统后，官僚系统控制一切，但官僚事务繁多，根本不可能处理过来，加之官僚腐败堕落，反应极端迟钝，整个社会体系因为既得利益反应十分缓慢，效率极其低下，社会发生各种风险概率直线上升。\n因此你会看到，各种问题发生时，官僚反应缓慢，甚至毫无反应的状况。\n\n并且由于苏联是权力为社会核心，百姓已失去监督官僚权力的能力，既得利益自然无视百姓利益，只顾既得利益，只顾权力斗争，即使出现决策错误，既得利益也只会互相保护，隐瞒问题，控制舆论，美化灾害，欺骗百姓，也就不可能改正造成问题的根源。\n因此各种灾害和重大事故当然只会更频繁发生，且原因往往极端类似。\n\n比如：\n1，企业来看，最底层经济体长期底效运转，利润微薄，导致安全投入降低，漏洞增多隐患大，苏联企业事故频发。\n2，经济体系被管理系统高度控盘，权力寻租更大，经济活力更低，财政收入减少，个人、企业、地方债务而崩盘。苏联各种失业人口频频出现。\n3，地方和基层权力更大，反而带来中央权力在地方控制的真空，地方遍地土皇帝和次生灰色势力，带来大量灰色地带，而地方和基层以中央名义统治，获取社会大多数财富，而矛盾反而上移。苏联各种血腥冲突频频出现，成为苏联分裂直接原因。\n4，这种局面下苏联想的是外战，以团结内部，稳固权力，然而外战失败导致以外矛盾团结内部矛盾努力失败，苏联内忧外患，苏联改革只能直指既得利益。\n然而，此时既得利益集团拒绝出让既得利益，阻挠改革，甚至将改革引向歧途，并在苏联最脆弱时，内部既得利益群体趁机化身为正义，反水抨击苏联，瓜分国家，将既得利益私有化，来灭掉苏联，毁尸灭迹，防止苏联改革掉自己既得利益，对自己清算。\n\n其实既得利益的统治模式下，只有走狗一样，极端自私，世故圆滑，溜须拍马，甘当走狗，懂得利用制度最大化利益的人才能晋升，导致知识群体内上愚下智，体制中上恶下善，社会体系和制度成为既得利益和其走狗的天下。\n最后国家面临危亡，被迫改革，将要触及自己利益时，这两类人自然选择与欧美资本家合流，出卖掉本国人民利益，摧毁掉苏联，来保全自己的利益。\n也就是苏联最后解体，其实是被苏联的既得利益们自己瓜分出卖掉给美国的，目的是为的就是防止既得利益被夺走，被人民清算。\n\n以上对美国同样适用，美国这2年，10年节点，同样面临盛世拐点和动荡风险，所以中美想向碰撞，动荡的风险加倍，各位务必注意。\n\n注意：\n2年左右，指的是2年左右时间内，会爆发危机的时间，即2023年6月前。以及2年内改革是最佳时间。\n10年左右，指的是10年左右时间内，会爆发危机的时间，即2031年左右内。以及10年内改革最佳时间。\n如真的按照我推测发展：2年左右的是小动荡，2025年前不改革，10年左右的是大动荡，2030年不改革，2031年后，开始统治危机。",
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