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      "body": "![mont3.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmR3dFc6gh2NtpG3jok4mCkXEjMgb8SzxoqHB6JrrnWaey/mont3.jpg)\n\nLarge one day move. The lift off the bottom is due to a 8.7% production cut by industry oilsands players as mandated by a ministerial order of the Alberta Government after a series of consultations on how to eradicate a once in a generation supply glut of oil unable to find a market access point. \n\nThe lack of pipelines and extra scaled up projects a few years back created a unique price storm that drove Oil prices for blended heavy oil into the toilet. \n\nWho to blame is left to other blogs, the thing to know is what is the situation of how the actions taken by industry, government and banks is setting up a multi-year story that has unknowns and opportunity for the educated investor wary of oil and gas paradoxes.\n\nWhen things look their worst, from government or price the moment in time you arrive at a perspective is locked in to a generational view, political view, economic view or personal experience. Many experts get this wrong. Governments change, companies change, currencies and policy also change. \n\nThe multiplier effect of change can dislocate or distort what the DATA or MARKET is telling you. Nothing but what actually happens matters. You can have 3 PhD's and be Isaac Newtons lineage and it simply doesn't matter in the world of 24/7 energy markets. \n\nThings don't work in straight lines. If you have an MBA or PhD you will go batty when what is supposed to go up, instead falls even if your models and homework and peers suggest otherwise.\n\nCycles are non linear they are zig zaggy. Math might statistically tell you X and the market will hand you Y. As you explain to your boss that you didn't know the market was full of idiots that pay attention to the wrong signals that you calculated ~ it doesn't matter.\n\nAll you need know is Force 1 is playing hardball. Force 2 is trying softball. Force 3 is using A.I. to listen in on the coach of Force 1 and Force 2 to out manuever their game. Force 4 is jamming the signal of Force 3. Force 5 is cashed out and waiting for someone to do something stupid.\n\nThat is one perspective. Whether Ukraine and Russia do this or that. Whether Egypt has $5 costs and Texas has $35 is of no matter for the leveraged trader using house money with zero interest costs for gambling on any outcome.\n\nYou don't have the capital or the computer power to compete with insiders, so best to look for long cycles and not be a trader, be a \"This is really low and stopped falling\" investor and nibble, then wait for confirmation and avg in over many months. If you have no time, hire a broker with 6 references.\n\nSee how green this chart is? Its been red for 5 weeks straight. Today is first hope that something has to give.\n\n![mont4.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUu8UN2egEprLYqtaau7oUUPgk8UPbUd29ySZC833DRZ2/mont4.jpg)\n\nThis ETF is a weird one to grasp, its not what it appears. It's like vegan food isn't meat. The product is a Discount, you can trade the discount on a blended oil that as volumes increase and as prices recover will make you a return over time.\nIts never supposed to move 36% in one day. The Move is a signal to pay attention to, something big just happened and is about to happen.\n\n![mont2.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSH81z9cVmgsSs2aMAUVMD3obUr3bvH8tX6eAgCoTPdHa/mont2.jpg)\n\n\nThe back up supply of 35 million barrels in storage (Glut) in Alberta reached the painful enough point that the government stepped in. The resource owned by the people but managed by custodians just got enough attention that a decision was made to wade into free markets and play referee out of an unfair and unusual market dynamic not seen maybe ever.\n\nThe podcast by two savvy energy specialist will bring you upto date on the past weekends drama in Alberta.\nhttps://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/western-canada-oil-glut-to-cut-or-not/\n\nThe bottom line, price is too low and the options are too far in the future to wait so action has been legally taken to force with previous consultation on production cuts of 8.7%.\n\nThe price of the blend at issue bounced the very next day, giving the optics and idea that for now it worked.\n![wcs1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbEBd3J4gZXLwrbMC8eHkkSTYEWvMkwXux3Nj8vCRSNzk/wcs1.jpg) \n\n\nThere are many prices of oil. Some for what isn't in them, some for what is added, some for what land or sea they reside near, some for how well they flow, some for whether a refinery can accept them, some tugging a boat, cruiseship or navy vessel. \n\nOne thing that matters, is delivering what is ordered on time, on budget and exact quality and price agreed upon.\n\nThe geology of western canada is blessed with an uncanny paradox. Enormous and i mean enormous scale of rock with a unique history where mountains, forests, and really productive dirt meet.\n\n![2017-05-16-1494961631-265570-borealwetlandsnwt-thumb.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX1M7dRvqiJkzzySspMaWzSm9NCL9Jg4An4iqYjJvC1Rq/2017-05-16-1494961631-265570-borealwetlandsnwt-thumb.jpg)\n\nThe natives were once in a canoe and travelling across a tributary in a boreal forest when they set up camp for a night. \n![bruce18a.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZv53axrQqZPHTuDVzTTPQ4GkY8qUZDakRbNjUPQbkQTV/bruce18a.jpg)\nThe black flies were everywhere and not too pleasant to endure, the canoe was near a large wall of overburden on the riverbank and was saturated with a strange black dirt that appeared curious to the man fighting the flies. He broke a piece of the black dirt off the riverbank and carried it back to the fire at camp. Thinking not of the consequences he threw it into the fire. Immediately the fire grew bigger and the dirt spirit in the rock unleashed a flash of both heat and smell unseen by any in the presence of the fire. Soon the others noticed the pesky flies were no longer bothering camp. The fire died down as the evening and  full moon wandered on. The man noticed the wet black spot on the edge of the dirt lump and pushed it off with a stick. As it cooled it stuck to his fingers a black waxy sticky substance that was awful hard to remove. His mate observed this and after the humor subsided he beckoned his friend to the canoe. They turned it over and rubbed the black oily goo on the canoe bottom where a crack had been. The ease of filling the water leak in the boat was quick and worked. The idea was born to carry some of the dirt to the next camp in the canoe to trade with other adventures in the west. Fast forward to the mid-1860's and the reality of eastern canadian geoscientists travelling out west to NE Alberta for the first time. The Canoe sealant was now a topic of geological mythology among the academics of Ontario and England. Though no unicorn nor saskquatch was seen in the fort, the natives did canoe the geologists to a region where they could see the mysterious rock for themselves. Soon 2 men turned into 15 with books and clipboards and disbelief became \"what if\" this whole region is saturated with this stuff. The only true way to know was dig, and so they did. Next year 75 earth scientists arrived to expand the believers, the next year 150, year after 250 and so it went until the size was to vast to quantify. It was simply abundant.\n\nSo maybe the story above was a distraction, but the history of the oilsand is long and old. The earth knows how she formed and the rest of us try to get the story a piece of data at a time. Today in 2018, the reality is the majority of countries that do not have oil still desire to live a better life. The resource is precious, its a dense organic material that is stored up energy in a density that is unmatched for really its sunshine applied to something that grew and lived and decayed. Millions of years of sun, created vast stores of energy and the unlock code to access that historical energy is cracked by chemistry, thermodynamics, physics and much labor. \n\nThe ability to offer a unit of energy at a known price for a length of time is by first having a vast resource that can be quantified to be available long enough to build a project that has a break-even curve worth taking on. That box is checked. Next is a big customer to order enough to make the viability of gathering resources and focusing on delivering them - that too is checked. Next is innovating and efficiently zeroing in on how to be the best you can be on metrics you won't even know matter until decades from now, that is on the table now.\n\n\nSo today, might be the very first day of the longest and most important lift off the bottom for the critical supply of the most important link in human productivity to date. In my opinion, we need this stuff unlocked to get the folks who have the least of it, the most affordable supply in the most efficient manner. \n\nTo do so, we need no social license of the haves, they no not what they have. Unless they travel to poverty stricken nations they know not the fruits of the labor and risks taken to give them what they lack to understand had a price to enjoy far above the dollar cost and too vast to abbreviate in a paragraph.\n\nThe responsible development has no publicity, the loser is the have not nation who cannot ever hope to compete or enjoy the benefit of work done for them without a taste of what energy does to improve the life of one who has it.\n\nThe ability to invest a dollar and get back $1.10 is not greed. It's the pay for doing what paid for by its utility or usefullness. ieThe nursing home that grandma lives in is heated by a joule. That joule has a history and price and risk and cost. The schoolbus, the mag lev train, the lear jet or cargo jet - each part of a work done for you lifestyle 95% of the population have no concept of, no respect for and no skin in until they re-fill the BBQ, or SUV.\n\n![First-Law-of-Thermodynamics.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmd5DU9Ga6ybq7kMTDTF8asEUqZrdWByJDiqghQNVg2ufP/First-Law-of-Thermodynamics.png)\n\nYou can choose to think otherwise, you can be who you want - just understand the consequence of where you want the $0.10 on top the $1.00 to go. Choose one supplier, or country and this or that outcome occurs. The other, and that other thing occurs instead. Its your choice. Most people in most countries have no choice, no option. \n\nTo change that, be informed. The decision is a vote with your wallet type thing. I subscribe to try to be better than you used to be. If you got this far you have an ability to soak this all in and takeaway the perspective offered. \n\nToday was an inflection point, its historic to those that read between the lines of policy, trade, economics and energy and a shift is on its way. I know the deserving folks with the best ideas and practices will win the minds first and hearts second. I want you to be one. Invest in responsible energy while you still have a choice. \n\n\nhttps://youtu.be/w82Lk_4vlok",
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      "permlink": "blackbird-energy-a-timely-story",
      "title": "Blackbird Energy a timely story",
      "body": "On December 19th (one day after Fed meeting in USA ~ to hike rates or pause or not) the merger is voted on to create a \"Pure Play\" for Condensate.\n\n\"Condensate\" if you don't know is light flammable fuel like paint thinner, in fact its used as thinner.\n\n![59c-25.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ2oFZKmy6eWHRG4jozFKtJz26NDYxnSh6JX7RPByA4QP/59c-25.jpg)\n\nShell Oil is building a massive LNG facility in Kitimat ($40 Billion). The Natural Gas to meet Asia electricity demand is worth 5-7 Billion a year. The scale of LNG Terminal creating demand for nat gas prices inncreases in Canada will be zero until 2022-2023 when the first ship sets sale. \n\n![Harper-says-LNG-tankers-too-dangerous-for-East-Coast-but-OK-for-BC.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaYg79GkyrsM7sHRbJeVRTRJsAUFRX2ZNmERAWxWZL8pw/Harper-says-LNG-tankers-too-dangerous-for-East-Coast-but-OK-for-BC.jpg)\n\nMeanwhile the Oilsands producers are scrambling to save $. The $19 per barrel condensate cost is killing them, anybody who comes to the table with lower cost condensate earns business, alot of business. There are very few pure play condensate players. So the reality is the leverage to this merger is very timely, and significant and at the market bottom.\n\nSo listen up. I am going to make you alot of money. Throw out your textbooks, throw away your ideas of how you think things work on this planet. If you are religeous, political, scientific, a sasquatch with a degree in interpretive feminine dance and a minor in spicy food literature - I don't care! I still can benefit your situation if you will do some napkin math and understand TODAY the reality of RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW, not 5 years from now, not 3 years or 30 years but right now.\n\nOk, you are still here. \n\nThe earth has only so many acres of \"economic\" meaning \"commercially viable\" rock capable of repeating results well after well at predicatable flows and pressures for X cost and Y profit.\n\n![in4.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUxDxqTBuGwKMdj4pDiC2yNyy5sPTTwjgrmqCsq2yW5rM/in4.jpg)\n\nThe rock in Canada beneath the feet of Blackbird is stacked with very blessed Liquids. The name of the liquid for public non-chemists is \"Condensate\".\n\n![fga1-eng.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSJZSonFRE5Uf1VRtwMgoZCmcSgxqteqpJyadKJnNLJ9P/fga1-eng.jpg)\n\n![map-resource-plays-2016-05.gif](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWkKisA4EriHScHAsGUuT6Nhwmsd997uV1uv1LeU7EKXU/map-resource-plays-2016-05.gif)\n\n![motney.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdkwrfwfX1p9SLyGzKCDYfsxjEai5R4rVtGQwFHQ1iRJT/motney.jpg)\n\nIts \"Value Prop\" is it lowers the DENSITY of any heavy oil or dense fluid so that the VISCOSITY is less, meaning its easier to PUMP, it flows faster, it's less expensive to move PRODUCT \"A\" from A to B.\n\nThe DEMAND for low cost condensate in the ALBERTA and B.C. region is skyrocketing right now.\n\nThe reason; Alberta is selling OIL to USA with $19 of Condensate in it for $15. Until today (dec 3) it was sold for nearly  $10 even though it has $19 of thinner in each barrel called Condensate.\n\nSo there are 25 customers that are scrambling to get a better price on Condensate.\n\nThe MERGER is very timely. The market is Bottoming, meaning the Value is not recognized by the market place and its not recognized by the Money managers either. \n\nThe DEMAND for Condesate will increase from now to 2022 every year. The # of Lands that are drill ready are limited. The # of economic producers are limited, and now the PURE PLAY in solving that problem is doing a transaction at the exact bottom of the market.\n\nThe BONUS is the Governments of ALBERTA and CANADA just ordered 7000 railway cars, and 80 locomotives to ship more Bitumen thats 120,000 Barrels that need 20%-30% of condensate mixed in to transport by railcar.\n\nLOTS OF DEMAND, HARDLY ANY SUPPLY, at the BOTTOM OF THE MARKET and the USD is Topping out. \n\n![mont1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmS7LBGsXRr63BV4362raPSvRaSzb4jTVvX1MvMFZFxh18/mont1.jpg)\n\nThis sets up a LOW RISK - HIGH REWARD situation \"IF\" you can afford to \"HOLD\" to the top of the next cycle for the MAXIMUM returns are in the last few months that often go PARABOLIC.\n\n![download.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmczt7vGdjpFbgB29QTCGLmwDocGVN4Nb3keAUTBFGfD8T/download.png)\n\nAt some point a Intermediate company will buy out the projects and you get either new shares or cash out.\n\n\nSo what you need to know is ;\n\nWHO: Blackbird Energy\nWHY: They have the right size and structure to deliver on promises.  \nWHEN: Time to consider a purchase is during Tax Loss season now to DEC 24 when shares are lowest price and everyone is busy with holidays and ignoring markets\nWHAT:  Warrants or Shares.\nHOW: Use an advisor or trade on your own if you have skill and account.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHere is a clip of the merger; \n\n\nBlackbird Energy![meet6.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdhPnXeGcZGsP7nUtTTtRbJ2Ps2hj79oKLVphcvPohEX1/meet6.jpg)\n\nOnce its one entity they have lots of Land, lots of stacked rock with the right liquid that industry is hot in demand after and the price they obtain it for is only going to go down as they scale up and the demand won't drop for 5-7 years.\n\nSo you are in the first to know and you can benefit right now by educating yourself on this exact pure play.\n\nGood Luck and don't wait for 2019. The shift in cleaner fuels to coal is the big push from G20 and Asia so the \"good to go\" is right now before the media plasters this on the screens.\n\nIt is Dec 3, 2018.\n\nThe drilling cycle is in the winter, lots of new news on drilling is seasonally out from now to March, when the Q2 numbers come out you can trim you core position by whatever you gained and ride out the next drilling cycle next winter. \nPlan to hold the core until 2022-2023 for Maximum parabolic moves that ALWAYS come late in the business cycle and its a 5-7 year cycle from the very bottom to very top on average.\n\nThere are very few who have the land and the expertise these guys have both:\nhttps://www.blackbirdenergyinc.com/investors/photo-gallery/video/6-26-70-7w6-completion\n\nThey also have the cash, the market buyers, and the right connections in the bottom of the cycle to get this deal done.\n\nThat's all you need to make money. Buy at the bottom is hard, it could be today, or in 3 weeks, but in 2022 you won't car if you pay 20 cents  or 25 because its going to be a 5X to 10X to 15X return by that time. \n\nYou won't get that on the S&P or Nasdaq or DOW in a deflationary cycle. Read more here\nhttps://www.blackbirdenergyinc.com/assets/docs/2018-Q3-Interim-Report_BBI.pdf\n\n\nThe Iran sanctions are going drive up fuel prices in Europe by April. The USA will then have rope to rise its prices and the higher prices will trigger lower priced feedstock from Canada to be imported into the USA refinery complex and remember the Canada barrel needs a thinner, and the thinner comes from the lowest cost producer and that has to be the largest lands with the best rock and the most efficient explorers.",
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      "parent_permlink": "tagoil",
      "author": "tulliillc",
      "permlink": "how-you-make-bidding-for-or-against-taranaki-nz",
      "title": "Make, Keep and Grow your $ as they up the bid +% on Taranaki energy assets, as Ghawar declines.",
      "body": "@@ -1,20 +1,4 @@\n-!%5Bdownloade.jpg%5D\n (htt\n@@ -153,16 +153,196 @@\n rencies.\n+ The capacity to deliver is  what gives the seller the right to fetch a given price for what barrels he/she can deliver. Lose that capacity, you lose the price setting priviledge. \n %0A%0A%22Brent\n@@ -6551,16 +6551,20 @@\n are the \n+oil \n reserves\n@@ -9055,16 +9055,240 @@\n  Oil. %0A%0A\n+If the barrel is empty, the next available full barrel is worth incrementally more. That reality is coming by mid-2020.%0A%0A!%5Be4e4e.jpg%5D(https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmarKtRpqsqTN5sJarPrTSVHCapJ56Tm7DSHF87dtu1ymt/e4e4e.jpg)%0A%0A\n By march\n@@ -9731,16 +9731,17 @@\n ds and g\n+o\n es into \n@@ -9769,16 +9769,609 @@\n n what. \n+%0A%0A!%5B706fig1.jpeg%5D(https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdnRm2E4jZBYY9KGXoQy8gRi5jYE7mdqEq4fce5yayGAz/706fig1.jpeg)%0A%0A%22Ghawar is ready to peak, and once it does Ghawar may decline much more rapidly then 5%25 per year after it peaks. The field has been drilled and redrilled. They are pumping in water at the bottom to force all the oil to the top. Right now they are pumping only from the top and percentage of water in the wells get worse every year. When it finally peaks it may be like the Mexican Cantarell field, which dropped to near zero in just a few years after peaking%22 %0A - Mathew Simmons%0A%0A%0A%0A\n Then wha\n@@ -10935,16 +10935,496 @@\n assets. \n+%0A%0ADo you want to buy a foreign barrel, will you be able to get delivery of that barrel even if you desire it?%0A!%5Blease1.jpg%5D(https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ3FWmRC11jrHHuoqVvsvcxxqmkjnEUyUb5x4D7rdoabw/lease1.jpg)%0A%0AWill Venezuela win its finance demands using Ethereum or will the experiment fail putting more stress on the suplly/demand balance for global oil markets by 2020?%0A!%5Beth1.jpg%5D(https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbSkFUiY7vRi6ZJfxfFLCskaLrdU2JL5wspg3o6FqeENi/eth1.jpg)%0A%0A%0A\n Good luc\n@@ -11424,9 +11424,16 @@\n ood luck\n+ to all\n .\n",
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      "parent_permlink": "tagoil",
      "author": "tulliillc",
      "permlink": "how-you-make-bidding-for-or-against-taranaki-nz",
      "title": "Make, Keep and Grow your $ as they up the bid +% on Taranaki energy assets, as Ghawar declines.",
      "body": "@@ -5812,8 +5812,4155 @@\n ur time.\n+%0A%0AThe SALE announcement https://tagoil.com/news/tag-announces-sale-of-new-zealand-assets-and-operations/%0A%0Asays that the $30 Million USD offer will close by Q1 2019. Thats around 50 cents per share. The shares are 32 cents as of Nov 9th, 2018. The USD could go higher, Oil production and Oil prices and Currency fluctuate. The 2.5%25 Royalty is a perk for holders of TAG who ride out the merger into the new entity.%0A%0ASupplejack could bring up to US$5 million more in event specific payments payable on achieving various milestones for PMP 60454 (Supplejack).  %0A%0ASo what are the reserves worth? What are the steel (pre-tariff) assets at Cheal worth? What is the Cash in the bank? What are the Netbacks? All these answers will start coming out week of NOV 12th when the Q3 financials are released.%0A%0AThe low end. 50 cents a share and say no new counteroffers. Or The high end $1.25 a share from new entrantsin the bid before end of Q1 2019.%0A%0ATamarind has alot of cash, and technical expertise so if they buy out TAG, the royalties might be a %25 of much larger numbers. The Beijing investor YF Finance and its affliates came in late summer scooping up 26%25 of Tag Oil at a 40 cent ish price. So what do Tamarind and YF Finance have in %25 right now? Do they have the 66%25 they need? If not the last few shares needed will go for a higher price in the final auction process. The numbers released next week willbe crucial for determining the value of this offer and as markets and investors digest whether its a fair deal the price will unfold in real time. %0A%0AIf you look at the once $10 per share of Tag Oil in 2010 t 2013 time frame, that won't happen at $60 oil. It could if the mideast had supply or capacity problems. The likes of which are threatened by Iran lobbying missiles from Yemen at its competitor in Saudi Arabia. It's possible in low probability math stats but still it does exist if the Straight of Hormuz was closed as the Iran/Saudi and Saudi/USA relations inflate tensions over who gets to export what oil across the Straight where 30%25 of world oil exports have to pass through the narrow channel.%0A%0AAt the end of the day - nobody can predict the price of oil or geopolitics with any degrees of accuracy until the event has happened that moves the needle of supply, demand, currency. %0A%0AI don't know the price Tag Oil will fetch. I just know the available amount of Non-opec, Non-state oil owned barrels that can be bought up by investors going into 2020 is very limited. 1 Barrel is important if you are on your last one. Some countries are facing the problem of scraping the bottom of the barrels they have. By 2020, we will have a problem we will be short -500,000 barrels a day. We know this today, without more than 5th grade math. We know what russia and saudi can do, we know what non-opec can do, we know what opec capacity is within a range. All that known, we are short 500,000 bbls. so what is the market willing to pay for one of thse 500,000 barrels? I don't know, I only know 1300 of 500K available are sitting in New Zealand beneath the land of Tag Oil. %0A%0ABy march of 2019, before the WARRANTS expire March 20, 2019 the Largest Oilfield in the world in Saudi Arabia will start to really decline fast. The slope of the curve of the decline is Y=mx+b from good ole math 101. We the negative slope of that curve is going to really accelerate in march 2019. So follow this, when 5%25 of the worlds oil price which is made up by the reliable daily output of the GHAWAR Oilfield starts to not deliver its goods and ges into freefall decline, then what. Then what is the price of a marginal barrel in New Zealand, - or anywhere? We don't know, only the moment it happens do we know. I do know, that if overvalued AMAZONs and APPLEs start to selloff, that what is real right now, what is consumed and in demand right now is going to be sought after with both fists and that is why you should re-read this article and check it facts for yourself. Then watch what happens in the next weeks as the markets digest the reality of weather, oil markets, trade disputes and the remaining market dynamics for pricing exploration assets. Good luck.\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"tagoil\",\"newzealand\",\"oil\",\"taranaki\",\"stocks\"],\"users\":[\"tulliillc\"],\"image\":[\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmS63VgJRjUCdSk6Y91vQRLwu6he9ZHQiLxgtdx7mKzuVD/downloade.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXyDoULZaJJM4gBeshdqzRmDUvMVJWyHw8K9GNvULeYsU/risingwr.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQETb1zRhc6Y79jZ4dV2rd8VP9s9hhjYTM9CESKYdtCWQ/aud.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfGG4pbcNSCZ1urtX4s8QjCK5RoNUNL8bdS7AzzJNuQuB/brze.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNRzDV1Dkq5HcJN65ScD6WpzWSiHy68xVAhiJnDqgQyEa/nzon.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXZ8P6qLaJGCVgnpUiGmeqbDDLebzQAc9iMPtK4QTnxpD/ccx1234.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma1K5TGuQ4ji6TXvEK2CDPvo9p9fgxNMrZykTfWAwDgr2/Taranaki-09.02.18%20(1).jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTx14kwBGbAiecQ7k1Kg1LBaBdooc47SvEUxbW5z61xra/risingw.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP1zTgY7BLTyKpwEJ3pUvu5PSAEWEzE7HFZNwBpoWfjPp/pop.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZrMVVxo3DmvfoeRtqmCqYLsQ9Dqqv4u2nitYkaXPNwyJ/oil994.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNhb6fMZY1KYqMB2B9e3qQzAsVT8qKqkRKAetj87FhTPE/tao-055.jpg\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\",\"links\":[\"https://tagoil.com/news/tag-announces-sale-of-new-zealand-assets-and-operations/\"]}"
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      "author": "tulliillc",
      "permlink": "how-you-make-bidding-for-or-against-taranaki-nz",
      "title": "How you make % bidding for or against Taranaki, NZ",
      "body": "![downloade.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmS63VgJRjUCdSk6Y91vQRLwu6he9ZHQiLxgtdx7mKzuVD/downloade.jpg)\n\nSo Oil is light or heavy and sold in dollars or other currencies.\n\n\"Brent\" oil is the price Europe pays for its energy, named after the Brent Goose in the UK. Mideast Oil is benchmark compared against Brent. So when I say \"priced in Brent\" its so many dollars and a geo location and is based on volumes sold at a certain price. \n\no When markets price their goods in terms of energy input costs, what happens if the input costs were to fall (oil price falls) then the elements or inputs that make up the price of a good or service that uses oil,gas, energy would rise or fall some % when an input price rises or falls.  \n\n![risingwr.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXyDoULZaJJM4gBeshdqzRmDUvMVJWyHw8K9GNvULeYsU/risingwr.jpg)\n\no Australia is topping, and its markets are topping - the pattern known as a rising wedge is dangerously at risk of a quick, steep, correction or drop in value.\n\n![aud.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQETb1zRhc6Y79jZ4dV2rd8VP9s9hhjYTM9CESKYdtCWQ/aud.jpg)\n\noJapan is also topping when japan markets liquidate the Yen will rise, as cash is needed to settle transactions that need Yen to settle. The pair of USD/Yen will spike when this occurs. The prices of goods will go volatile as this happens. \n![brze.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfGG4pbcNSCZ1urtX4s8QjCK5RoNUNL8bdS7AzzJNuQuB/brze.jpg)\n\no Oil by mid 2020 is facing converging factors that will have no effect but one, that is a spike in far east oil prices and the timeframe is unavoidable and will occur by mid 2020 this is going to cause re-thinking financial policy worldwide but the only bank that can print now is left to the fed, and they will have to print 1 trillion or more to pay the interest on their own debts. This printing will lower the value of the USD over time and this will cause the commodities to inflate in price as the USD falls in purchasing power. This will start by 2020 and will go on until the markets solve the supply / demand imbalances ![nzon.jpg]\n(https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNRzDV1Dkq5HcJN65ScD6WpzWSiHy68xVAhiJnDqgQyEa/nzon.jpg)\n\no Alberta Oil is dropping fast and steep. This is not what it appears, its the author of the next bull market. The demand destruction can occur in 2 ways, lack of demand from slowing economies or lack of demand by higher prices that slows demand for purchasing at a given price ![ccx1234.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXZ8P6qLaJGCVgnpUiGmeqbDDLebzQAc9iMPtK4QTnxpD/ccx1234.jpg)\n\no Tag Oil in the ground in Taranaki is largely exported to asia via singapore and the rest is domestically consumed. ![Taranaki-09.02.18 (1).jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma1K5TGuQ4ji6TXvEK2CDPvo9p9fgxNMrZykTfWAwDgr2/Taranaki-09.02.18%20(1).jpg)\n\no What a rising wedge means is open to debate, but it has meant the 1929 crash the 1971 oil crisis, the 1987 market crash and the 2008 crash. It likely means the same thing today. ![risingw.jpg]\n(https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTx14kwBGbAiecQ7k1Kg1LBaBdooc47SvEUxbW5z61xra/risingw.jpg)\n\no What happens when the rising wedge (rising emerging markets) actually pops? We don't know, but liquidity slows and trade and spending slows and the idea that the Fed can continue to raise rates in that environment is possible but not probable and they would do a 180 about face and revert to QE (printing money) on steroids and that would light a fire on energy stocks because the denominator is the value of the USD and it would drop in size or value or purchaing power by a huge amount and that would effect the final number for oil price by raising the sell price alot. That narrative won't be understood now, it will be an all at once reversal and what is OVERVALUED in world markets will be sold at a loss and what is UNDERVALUED in ENERGY will get large sums of flight capital chasing a select few companies with low debt and lots of barrels already discovered. Investors will make 15-20X there money in 5-6 years.![pop.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP1zTgY7BLTyKpwEJ3pUvu5PSAEWEzE7HFZNwBpoWfjPp/pop.jpg)\n\no Oil is necessary for life on this planet until further notice.  ![oil994.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZrMVVxo3DmvfoeRtqmCqYLsQ9Dqqv4u2nitYkaXPNwyJ/oil994.jpg)\n\nSo when a company like Tag Oil that produces 1300 barrels a day goes up for sale, its not going to get as much attention as an Exxon or Shell. However, its barrels in the ground are likely to be more valueable 5 years from now than they are today. The 2.5% royalty might be on a $115 price tag per barrel rather than $60 in 2018. This makes the value of the SALE of Tag Oil worth pondering. The permits to drill in NZ are limited, the seismic work to identify new barrels takes time and money to do. In a bull market, drilling takes risk and time so mergers occur to grow faster by just buying barrels from a competitor. This makes the low oil and bear market right now a set-up for big gains in a few years. You can gamble on Tag at 40% off and buy the barrels in the ground at a discount to the price they will be worth when lifted out in the future. To take that risk, the downside is near none at the current prices. The upside is 40-45% on a reasonable bounce back to normal. However if iran and saudi go toe to toe the world prices for energy could go parabolic by mid 2019 and that may or may not happen but its what makes the story of Tag Oil worth a read as an investor in marginal barrels at a discounted price to what may occur in just a few weeks or months.\n\n \n\n![tao-055.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNhb6fMZY1KYqMB2B9e3qQzAsVT8qKqkRKAetj87FhTPE/tao-055.jpg)\nSo to read more visit @TulliiLLC on Twitter and search #Tagoil and read the new releases on the company website. you won't be wasting your time.",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "oil",
      "author": "tulliillc",
      "permlink": "how-to-get-oil-exploration-exposure-for-free",
      "title": "How to get Oil exploration exposure for free",
      "body": "This article explores financial leverage ideas in oil exploration;\n\n1) Assumes some investment prior knowledge in resource cycles.\n\n2) Dividends are taxed at different rates and cash is exchanged at varying rates which can affect % returns.\n\n3) Exploration companies are volatile and cyclical and need pre-planning to capitalize on returns.\n\nStrategy: In Canada/USA  you can use monthly Dividends to offset risk in owning Exploration stocks by collecting cash that covers holding risky resource stocks  to term. \n\nHow: First you hold a Dividend Payer and you use the income generated monthly to accumulate assets that are leveraged to upward moves in a commodity that has greater upside in % upon an increase in reserves \nfrom discovery of resources or an increase in production numbers. \n\nExample: \nFind a $3.00 Stock pays $0.026 cents cash each and every month.\nSay you hold 1000 shares of XYZ Energy Inc. and earn the CASH PAYMENT of 1000 * 0.026 = 26 dollars each month. You now have +75% of the value of a 3 cent Junior earned for free, reducing your investment risk on 1000 Shares of ABC Junior Energy Inc. by -75%. With 25% at risk and 4X leverage to a warrant you have 1/4 on the risk side and 3/4 on the return side, a good bet odds-wise.\n\nQ. How do I buy shares in a good risk in Exploration?\nA.  You might not find value at 3 cents, in terms of a Share Price, however you can find \"Warrants\" which give you more leverage than shares with changes in USD/CAD and USD Oil Price moves plus give you time to play a narrative that over time should offer exit strategy to return capital and generate a return.\n\nQ. What is a warrant and how do they actually work?\nA. A warrant is like a downpayment on a lease to rent an apartment. It gives you the right to buy/rent at a certain price for a known period of time without coming up with all the money at once.\n\nQ. Explain a warrant in resource companies?\nA. Say you see a warrant for TAO.WT priced at $0.015 - you can buy 10,000 warrants for $150\nand it gives you the right to 10,000 shares of a company at $0.90 purchase price upto a certain date in the future so you leverage $150 to control the right to buy 10,000 x $0.90 = $900.00 that is 4X leverage on your $150 of risk.\n\n![tao55.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUQ8AsRSstEL1VSK2atJzNtSghxmmcuTEEPXHLCkaXeCH/tao55.png)\n\nQ. What if the share price is lower than the $0.90 price right now, wouldn't it be safer to just buy the stock and hold it while it rises and not risk the loss if the warrants expire?\n\n![Untitledtao.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQWYYgFtrfB8K6rw4646k5AsgTGjuhUUt7h4kbx8g9brv/Untitledtao.jpg)\n\nA. Right, I see your angle, however the reason you buy exploration is for attracting outsized gains due to finding something in economic size that is brand new and increases the value many 100% in a few years. When in risk investing don't play not to lose, play to win...the difference being HOW you take the risk determines how you earn the return.\n\nYes, you can just buy the shares, but the 4x leverage offered in warrants can workout really favored if you get a discovery before the warrants expire, plus the discovery raises a lot of new cash into the business from people who exercise the warrants and this new capital launches the business into a new stage of investment which attracts other peoples money and since you got in early with leverage you stand to gain in more than one way if you were to hold the warrants and exercise them.\n\nQ. So give me a real world example of how i can do this in Canada or the USA?\n\nA. Fine, look at symbol GXO on tmxmoney.com its past history shows paying under 3 cents per month. Next look at TAO.WT and see its 1.5 cents  and expires in March 2019 this will be our first example .   You also wanted a USA example, I will give you PBT as the dividend payer (yields around 5-6 cents every month) and i will use the exchange rate gains on the dividend to buy the same TAO.WT warrant in canada to show how you can use the USD/CDN rate to your advantage.\n\nSo GXO | TAO.WT is $3.00 share and $0.015 warrant in $CDN\nTAO.WT and \nPBT is $9.00 USD and pays $0.05 USD which converts to $0.06 CDN when paid out which gives you Qty of 4 - $0.015 warrants for each 6 cent payment per month. Like saying each 1 GXO share pays you 4X leverage in TAO.WT \n\n\nIf Oil rises and PBT increases you gain there plus the cash dividend might be worth more over time if they grow.\n![pbt18.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdJae5rqrKwhM8pj4HovK6MYpmK2q1cUuZ6WUqCJqogFf/pbt18.jpg)\n![pbt189.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbwjNp3PL6u5vy4mSSrLh7pmM4GL6FKrrwQDR8Y7HbCDC/pbt189.jpg)\n\nIf Oil rises and GXO increases in share price it too might pay higher dividends over time.\n![gxo1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmco2RivdtHSEueKw7AWz1hUndR2VHMvAe1ffmFSYf3KsL/gxo1.jpg)\n\n![gxo12.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ6KKSAQVrWuPCC4PsrtAPWPpNPp86wZXSuJ5ycbv52fZ/gxo12.jpg)\n\nA warrant is speculation on Oil price and Share Price over time, so TAO.WT is based on TAO which is $0.40 at Jun 15, 2018 and needs to rise to $0.915 for you trigger both the $0.90 Warrant Exercise Price, and pay for the $0.015 premum paid on owning the warrant. \n\nThe shares of TAO need to 2X in less than a year and for that to happen you need a narrative that can work out for that company and in that time frame. For this to happen could be external to the company ie: geopolitical tariffs, oil in europe reacting to Euro breakdown, traders reacting to Singapore Crude futures in Yuan which convert to  trade in Sept 2018. Or, The company may acquire assets in a country like Australia or NZ and double reserves or size to reach the 90 cent level.\n\nSay you have $1000 to risk, you put 850 into PBT and get nearly 100 share, earning $6/month for 8 months\nthat is $48 in earnings, you get nearly $200 (4x) of leverage in TAO.WT which gives control of $1800 of TAO shares and that means you have a upside opportunity to play if TAO performs, rather than 40 cents at risk with stock you have 1.5 cents at risk with 60X leverage to 90 cents from 1.5 cents.    \n\nSaid another way you can take a 90 cent future position with 1.5 cents at risk today.\n\n![tao55.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSHuoRSkQ8bdAAwMyKpbofnwjpLowYyiXiCmmSif8nXrA/tao55.jpg)\n\n\nThe asymmetric or lopsided odds are contrarian to the market and that is sometimes a opportunity missed by the crowds.\n\nSummary: A barrel in the ground is worth less than a producing barrel, but the cost of that barrel to lift from the well to surface and get to market is the key. New Zealand is not like other markets it has unique isolations that when working for you are very lucrative and offer 20% cushions to north american markets. Getting leverage on a barrel in the ground at a discount into the future before its lifted is one way to get financial leverage. Offsetting that risk with paid off infrastructure on a existing producer that can afford a dividend is a great way to offset risk.\n\nBuy GXO, Buy PBT and hold Warrants for upside leverage to the tune of 4X upto 60X depending on how you view the numbers. \n \nTullii",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "If we wind up with an off track on Saturday Justify would be the first triple crown winner to do it on 3 off tracks in all three races. That has never happened. Some suggest then if this happens he should carry an asterisk because of the track conditions. This is bullshit. As I see it. all the horses race on the same off track. If he gets the 1 1/2..i dont care if it's on a fast track or a mud fest. Should be fast and firm for the early races at least.",
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      "title": "moneytoken ico",
      "body": "You can contributes to the project and if you purchase more than 400 IMT tokens, you can join the referral network. contribution to your wallet!\n\n“MoneyToken is a bright example of the real use of blockchain technology, as well as offering a massive boost for crypto market liquidity for all market players, and especially for businesses.”\nRoger Ver, Founder of Bitcoin.com, adviser at MoneyToken\n\nhttps://moneytoken.com?referral=XF0oWfhN\n\n![save44.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWz7meo32md3tCApcecgPc1RffrdXJTWcExNLQXahqZE4/save44.jpg)\n\nHow to order IMT (Moneytoken)\nChoose the cryptocurrency you want to use to buy IMT tokens.\n2 Generate the payment address and copy it.\n3 Transfer your cryptocurrency for purchasing IMT tokens to this address.\n4 Add your Ethereum address to which you have access with your own private key (do not add address from exchanges!).\n5 The audit will start after the main round of the Token Sale.\n6 Token distribution is scheduled to begin after the end of the audit process (10 days after the token sale, +/- 1 week). Detailed information will be published on MoneyToken blog shortly.",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://www.medicinenet.com/freckles/article.htm",
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      "body": "A freckle is essentially nothing more than an unusually heavy deposit of melanin at one spot in the skin. Melanin is produced by cells called melanocytes. A pigment-producing cell located in the basal layer of the epidermis.\n\nThe word freckle comes from the Middle English freken, which, in turn, came from the Old Norse freknur, meaning \"freckled.\" (Speakers of Old English languages and Old Norse must have had a tendency to develop freckles.)\n\n![images (9).jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRvyBcTCrgW9RhqyhwHxFTeXEzdrV4EpY5kYrDkACGBWR/images%20(9).jpg)\n\nThe most famous line in poetry pertaining to a Freckle \"...'Tis but a freckle, never mind it.' by Oliver Wendell Holmes.\n\nTop ways to avoid damage to skin already with freckles are  sun avoidance: avoidance of the peak sun hours of 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.,seeking shade and staying indoors.sun-protection, including use of sunscreens with SPF (sun protection factor) 50, use of wide-brimmed hats (6 inches), use of sun-protective clothing (shirts, long sleeves, long pants).\n\n![woman-black-and-white-wallpaper.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmf9sqfNqpPfGK8A6yZr13jLXewPXQbEGZmmqphgGHSDmX/woman-black-and-white-wallpaper.png)\n\nA freckles is inherited by individuals with fair skin and/or with blond or red hair\n\n![11042017_rambut-merah_20170411_102336.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbyqQTzpBU9gim9NfKF2Yk5UhciafXkXuVpGE6v9Gxxhm/11042017_rambut-merah_20170411_102336.jpg)\n\nAnyone who has one or more uncertain pigmented spots should have their dermatologist evaluate them\n\n![lifebuzz-1cce3d92ee0fe933fb316d4c05854214-limit_2000.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXLcc1CknmquxxRj7gU8VMC9Ac4UbU3i9qRy1TAtpPukr/lifebuzz-1cce3d92ee0fe933fb316d4c05854214-limit_2000.jpg)![150216-imperfecciones-mujeres.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTHTjfE7AsnaE8cd7kp1xTV7W9zA4aDJXBQQZtUHp7VsL/150216-imperfecciones-mujeres.jpg)![images (1).jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVZwUpCFnR2dWEftwZuKEN8r5hREaLdfKjjrf2QjXsBbq/images%20(1).jpg)![images (4).jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcJvyLjPZ1FtGgk9k8L9hkaEyBspxW5bQFFYBmB3eMwBf/images%20(4).jpg)![50-beautiful-girls-with-freckles-628205_w600h900.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXRc6TQrxMcM91QbNX7NzvPoDB5haapwJXpQccZTximx8/50-beautiful-girls-with-freckles-628205_w600h900.jpg)",
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      "parent_permlink": "justify",
      "author": "tulliillc",
      "permlink": "how-to-draft-a-better-bet-for-the-historic-belmont-stakes-horse-race-11-triple-crown-on-june-9-2018",
      "title": "How to draft a better bet for the Historic Belmont Stakes Horse Race #11 (Triple Crown) on June 9, 2018",
      "body": "What:  Historic Race #11 is the Biggest Race of 2018 and perhaps since 1978!\n\nWhen: June 9, 2018 at 6:37pm \n\nWhy:    It could break many Triple Crown records at Belmont Track, NY\n\nHow long: This Will Be Just 2 Minutes long to Watch as Fantastic Horse Racing History is Made.\n\nWho: The Horses coming to the race are;\n\nI suggest you watch each horse run in the links below. Get a sense of the track, wet or dry, sun or rain and whether its race was close and in high traffic or with ample room to negotiate a line on the horse track. \n\nIn 1.5 miles alot can happen in 2 minutes, but the race can be won or lost at the very start or at the last second which makes for exciting live racing to watch. \n\nIf you have $2 to wager a bet, you can bet a Horse to come in 1st, or 2nd or 3rd.  You get paid if you are correct in choosing and this blog post will help you draft a better bet in a few minutes so read on.\n\nThe \"Favorite\" to win is named \"Justify\" its related to the famous 1973 Winner \"Secretariat\" and its already won 2 huge victories in 2018 that make this next race a potential moment in racing history. \n\n1st in this Belmont Stakes 2018 race will not only win Justify the Triple Crown Prize, the most desired prize in horse racing but also break a long track record more than 25 years old.\n\nThe Odds you read beside the name of a horse \"4-5\" mean that you earn 4/5 or say 20% on a each $2 wager. So $100 earns $120 if placed as a $2 to WIN, you get $20 more than your $100 wager. \n\nThe more exotic bets can pay you $4500 or more on the same $2 wager by attempting to select the EXACT 2, 3 or 4 Horses in exact order for the Race#11 dubbed the Belmont Stakes. Some bets are as low as $0.20 but they involve picking 4 to 5 exact matches to the race outcome which is a lottery outcome unless you have a brain and instinct to fine the combination.\n\nA big race can attract $100 Million in Wagers between Fans online or at the Event. This means the PAYOUT can be enormous as the EXOTIC bets are POOLED and the IMPROBABLE BETS with HIGH ODDS can pay Asymetric or outsized returns but they are like picking lottery numbers.\n\nAn \"EXACTA\" means you think horse A and B will come in that exact order A,B in first and second. An exacta can be \"BOXED\" which means you combine B,A and A,B so that no matter which outcome occurs you cover both bets.\n\nThis can be further modified to Bet three or four horses where you know the 1st place horse but aren't sure who takes 2nd and you desire to bet A in first, With B,C or D in Second. This gets expensive the more you add so you need to be choosey and select based on a real method that you find makes sense to MATH PROBABILITIES and your BUDGET as well and what happens the days before or during the race. \n\nIf HORSE \"D\" has had 4 months to recover from a race, and its ODDS are 50:1 its possible it can come in 3rd or 4th and beat a 7:1 or 12:1 contender who has had only 3 weeks of rest and is running on a bruised shin or mild injury that you are aware of. \n\nThe straight up way to bet is \"$2 for Horse \"X\" to WIN in Race#11 at track Belmont\"  and this is simple and fun.\n\nThe slightly more expensive way is \"$2 to WIN, PLACE or SHOW and will give you 3X the chances to recover your money but cost 3 x $2 at the bet window.\n\nLets get a sense of what each contender can do, how it runs and what past performance has been. (Yet the only thing that matters race day is which whisker of a nose crosses the line first)\n\nJustify odds 4-5  Video https://youtu.be/qdNik-I2iRc\n\nHofburg 4-1 Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaYoCpWuEqs\n\nBravazo 7-1 Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y03lAWCXZ9E\n\nVino Rosso 8-1  Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCG9FuuNm9Y                    \n\nTenfold 10-1      Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BnwLHQBrVA                           \n\nBlended Citizen 14-1  Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1tA8CLLJuE           \n\nGronkowski 25-1          Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfXOzH1b8aE\n\nNoble Indy 33-1      Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k351ruvAHYg                  \n\nFree Drop Billy 50-1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwNiFCzkj8c\n\n\nObviously the Odds are prepared by skilled sports statisticians who follow many inputs that create the fraction they assign to each horse. However, a 50:1 odds horse is just a 1 of 9 chance when horses are math probabilities so it has a 1 in 9 chance of crossing the line first mathematically speaking without factoring in its trainers, pedigree or past results.\n\nOnce you read more on each animal and its history, your mind starts wandering into assessing factors that are weighted more or less than each competitor and whether any science is involved or not in how you picture the information, the math or probabilities can be skewed by your perspective. \n\nLets say you throw out 50:1 and 33:1 as having a realist probability of being 1st but assign them a 50% chance of being 3rd or 4th. If you have made a grid of 9 x 9 = 81 squares you have 81 possible combinations for 1st and 2nd place. Yet you just said the 50:1 and 33:1 aren't first place pics so now your grid is 7x7 and that is 49 bet options for 1st and 2nd.\nIf you keep going discarding some data and emphasizing other data you should get to a sample of less than 20 possible numbers for 1-2-3-4th place and that is the goal before the race day. Once you have the SHORTLIST you can set a budget of how much risk and what horses or types of combinations to go with. If you have 10 friends with $20 burning a hole in their pocket you can pool the $200 into a risk of say 20% high risk high payoffs and 50% sure things and 30% on Exotica or Exacta bets.\n\nWatch each video, read each Race Profile on race day and whittle the number down from 81 to 49 and then keep going until you have say a 4 by 4 or 16 possible bets for that race. This is the enjoyable part if you have time to read and scrutinize, if you are confused and under pressure for time, then a straight bet to WIN or PLACE is easy and timeless.\n\nNow select most likely 4th place picks, compare track times, past performance and general stats for each animal and get a card of 2-3 picks of a horse that will come in 4th. Now repeat for 3rd place by weeding out the winners who previously raced each other (taken from buying a $0.25 race profile page for Belmont Stakes). When you see horse \"D\" beat \"E\" 3 times in past year on the profile and you are trying to pick which horse in 3rd or 4th you can gauge from Profile Sheets who is generally faster on 1-1/2 mile races and whittle your picks somewhat down to better numbers.\n\n![01500_TRIPTIS000000.jpg]\n\nExample of a Bet Ticket with Lingo\n\n\n(https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbrRU3r42is6LgjUJfoaYTRrAD1mnWpqXg6aPgZMtMzLQ/01500_TRIPTIS000000.jpg) \n\n\n\n![DdpMjltV4AA_DTO.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPToxH3Zcu46U5ZXiWH2QdeABUzQLa1e4arnbkrgeRKha/DdpMjltV4AA_DTO.jpg)\n\nQuestion: What I want to do is find the straight forecast probability of Horse A winning and Horse B finishing second. I know there are 2! combinations for this to happen, but I'm not sure where to progress from here (or if it is possible). If the horses all had equal probabilities of winning I think it would be easier.\n\nAnswer: If you had probabilities on four horses winning a race converted to fractions;. \nHorse \nA =0.52\nB=0.33\nC= 0.11\nD=0.04\n\n\nThen probability that Horse B finishes second given that Horse A finished first. \n\nIt's no longer going to be 0.33, since the 3 probabilities of 0.33,0.11,0.04 no longer sum to 1, but 0.48. \n\nTo fix this, we can scale these 3 probabilities by dividing each by 0.48. \n(Note that this is a simplifying assumption; it's not guaranteed to work all the time.) \n\nThis yields:\nP(A is first, B is second)=P(A is first)P(B is second∣A is first)=(0.52)(0.33/0.48)=0.3575\n\nSo A being first and B being second is 35.75% chance\n\n![DenUBsPV4AQzolG.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSwqQDMY8Cv8pZey4AyoYaiBiTKF71DK3kjxH8NTHhLNu/DenUBsPV4AQzolG.jpg)\n\nWhat if there are 8 horses in a race, how do i look at the math?\n![8 horse.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmU8HgNPuu9fDySSXgmpq3LwihG9UjXSKjf8Jwxy3k4rey/8%20horse.jpg)\n![answe3.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYp99Lbg6erRNHHRrCaAcg6vQQCR1q6g1oa8F8W6JjkZM/answe3.jpg)\n\n\n![20182.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcPh2RP3korYDPSHL3BSajhNMvb8ouMVrrQxwvoyNAdDX/20182.jpg)\n\nSo if there are say 8 horses with odds written like 4-5 or 7-1 how do you convert to true odds?\n![odee.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYqVbBencfeDDZ7qPyBKcEFQNMDWbDqsypfxUfR718NBd/odee.jpg)\n\n![june8.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmV2GqPWevX8u39wuavHk3kux5ZiwNTCeCBhpM71SDFtzy/june8.jpg)\n\nThe Belmont Track - Race will be 1-1/2 Miles this is a bit longer than most races, so a horse that breaks out fast at the beginning may not be able to hold on to the end at same pace, often the last 1/8 mile has drop offs and others breakout who finish really strong called \"closers\"\n\nOver 100,000 people will attend the race in person and online the audience for the 2 minutes will be in the millions.\n\nBe a part of History on June 9\n\n![tickets.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVBR8bY8JAmTHRPKR5DpPSBDuyLg22Vih8GYfdPYYFwtW/tickets.jpg) \n\n![belmont1.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUWjbMS4sTPNpcCUbQ1Gp3kBEeNSn953qaW6geKQQgRwY/belmont1.jpg)",
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