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      "author": "steemitboard",
      "body": "Congratulations @tonyfaccenda! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@tonyfaccenda/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@tonyfaccenda) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=tonyfaccenda)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/the-steem-community-has-lost-an-epic-member-farewell-woflhart\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQWnM36SWCPGn98nY83M1ArgweMz5fnovQEp2E4FiDdug/Wolfhart_header.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/the-steem-community-has-lost-an-epic-member-farewell-woflhart\">The Steem community has lost an epic member! Farewell @woflhart!</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemtoolbar/@steemitboard/steemtoolbar-update-display-bug-fixed\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/7CiQEO.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemtoolbar/@steemitboard/steemtoolbar-update-display-bug-fixed\">SteemitBoard - Witness Update</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steem/@steemitboard/do-not-miss-the-coming-rocky-mountain-steem-meetup-and-get-a-new-community-badge\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUphCGZFWgt6bJ1XTtunV7esnwy6bxnGqcLcHAV3NEqnQ/meetup-rocky-mountain.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steem/@steemitboard/do-not-miss-the-coming-rocky-mountain-steem-meetup-and-get-a-new-community-badge\">Do not miss the coming Rocky Mountain Steem Meetup and get a new community badge!</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "author": "partiko",
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{
  "block": 28215256,
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      "author": "tonyfaccenda",
      "body": "![chris-liverani-552022-unsplash.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUDyxYjmZ7cDgFcd3DZdv7yEYanbejETeTHcVWb1kVQDn/chris-liverani-552022-unsplash.jpg)\n\n\nDecember is now upon us and there are already some early signs of festive cheer in the crypto markets, albeit on very shaky foundations. This week’s theme is the thoroughly un-festive matter of governance (wait, come back! It’s way more interesting than it sounds). Before diving in to this weighty topic I’ll take this opportunity to plug an event I have coming up in a little over a week. Any Londoners interested in crypto chat please do come along (surely it won’t be competing with your work’s Christmas Party on a Monday night?): https://www.eventbrite.com/e/cindicator-uncertainty-2019-london-tickets-52903663281\n\nRight, now down to business. Here’s what I learned this week…\n\n\n\n**1.\tCentral planning as overfitting**\n\nThis week, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin was awarded an honorary doctorate in Economics from the University of Basel in recognition of his “outstanding achievements in fields of cryptocurrencies, smart contracts, and the design of institutions.” It seems fitting, therefore, that our first article is a piece co-authored by Vitalik and political economist Glen Weyl on the topic of governance. In this article they explore the concept of ‘simplicity’ in social systems and why having ‘fewer knobs’ to turn in order to govern a system minimises the need for intervention (which tends to benefit those with the privilege of turning those knobs). It’s an interesting read, though don’t feel bad if it takes a couple of goes before the points become clear – I may still need to have a third or fourth read before it properly makes sense. In relation to this, it’s also worth being familiar with Nick Szabo’s concept of the ‘argument surface’ and how the more areas where humans can argue over governance, the less scalable the system becomes.\n\n\nLink: https://radicalxchange.org/blog/posts/2018-11-26-4m9b8b/\n\n\n**2.\tMeet your new boss…**\n\nWe’ve touched on the notion of Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAOs) a couple of times in this blog and the concept continues to fascinate me. What if all top-down functions of the modern enterprise, such as admin, planning, accounting, HR, etc., could all be hard-coded and developed into a self-executing management framework? Of course, it’s not as simple as firing the Board and installing a network of computers as its replacement. Yet, in a world of bloated bureaucracies, the concept of moving from ‘top-down’ governance to a permissionless, ‘bottom-up’ mode of organisation has a lot of appeal. Aragon, a blockchain startup founded in 2016, is developing a governance protocol that addresses this specific idea. The project’s latest blog explores the concept of human coordination, looking at the evolution of the corporation, the inexorable problems inherent is such systems, and how new structures might offer more transparent governance. The starting point for the piece is that the corporation of today is no longer fit for purpose. In their words: ‘The management paradigm of the last century - centered on control and efficiency - no longer suffices in a world where adaptability and creativity drive business success’. The blog seeks to show how a DAO-based approach can lay the rules-based framework for different actors to contribute their resources and share risks, unfettered by geographical boundaries. More accurately, ‘Smart contracts running on a public blockchain make DAOs possible in the same way double-entry accounting unlocked joint-stock corporations. By building on top of consensus forming technologies - blockchains -, participants can agree on the state of the organization in the form of assets, liabilities and more’. The blog then (perhaps unsurprisingly) goes on to talk about Aragon’s value prop, though it’s still worth reading until the end. \n\n[Note: I’m not overly familiar with Aragon, nor do I hold any of their tokens, so I can’t vouch for whether this particular project holds the key to the future of governance, but I’ll certainly be watching this space.]\n\nLink: http://blog.aragon.one/the-future-of-organizations/\n\n\n**3.\tPrice doesn’t follow hashrate, hashrate follows price**\n\nThe nature of proof-of-work systems can be confusing for those (like myself) who haven’t had first-hand exposure to the economics of mining. I watched a CNBC discussion earlier this week (I won’t bother linking it) on the fears that Bitcoin will enter a ‘death spiral’ as the cost of production (i.e. mining) is now greater than the market value. The anchor drew parallels with the oil market, where in such circumstances producers would cease production immediately. In Bitcoin, the relationship between mining cost and operations is slightly more nuanced, and this Coinshares post does a good job of explaining it. The piece outlines the fact that miners tend to operate with a mixture of capital expenditure (capex) and operating costs (opex), which correlates with ROI. A miner, when calculating ROI, needs to think not only of the costs of electricity required to mine new blocks, but also about the flow of cash required to pay for the cost of their equipment (which would normally have been paid up front). In a bear market, a miner may choose to continue mining even if the market price of bitcoin is below the cost of production as the flow is serving to pay their equipment costs (i.e. they’ve become cash-flow negative). If the rewards of mining are negative in relation to both capex and opex costs, then they’ll likely cease production. The article notes that hashrate has fallen from a peak of 55 exahashes per second (EH/s) down to 44, suggesting that miners are feeling the pinch in current market conditions. The article also discusses the relationship between price and hashrate, noting ‘Mining cost will always tend towards the price of bitcoin minus a narrow competitive margin. However, these dynamics are not instant, and there is an asymmetrical delay in the trailing effects.’ So, what happens from here? Well, if the price of bitcoin increases, then increased hashrate will follow, if the price remains at or below the current range then the difficulty adjustment will take effect to bring the cost of production down. In either case, no cause to panic.\n\n\nLink: https://medium.com/coinshares/an-honest-explanation-of-price-hashrate-bitcoin-mining-network-dynamics-f820d6218bdf\n\n\n**4.\tIs there such a thing as a fair ICO market?**\n\nIt’s quite easy, while we’re still dealing with the hangover from last year’s mania, to outright dismiss the value of ICOs as a fundraising mechanism. Indeed, there are a number of obvious flaws in giving millions of dollars to a rookie team on the basis of a well-written whitepaper. The ICO model did however start from a good place – allowing ambitious entrepreneurs to gain the funding they need to bring an idea to life, while simultaneously giving a set of potential early adopters a ‘stake’ (careful not to confuse that word with equity rights) in the project from the beginning. Chris Dixon of a16z recently hypothecated whether if early twitter users were given tokens to help reward their participation and bring new users on to the platform it would have helped to grow faster and more resilient network effects. There’s something ingenious in that idea, and that’s why I’m reluctant to throw the baby out with the bathwater when it comes to ICOs. In the Medium post I’m linking below, the author explores how the model of P3D (Proof of Weak Hands 3D; which was for all intents and purposes a clever Ponzi scheme) could lend a useful perspective for creating a fair ICO market. He outlines the concept of a ‘refund line’, whereby participants stand to get their ETH investment back by means of staking. The purpose is (1) it reduces the heavy selling pressure on ETH as the funding is staked (and therefore not market-dumped), (2) the founders will receive their funding over time based on delivering value rather than in a lump sum, and (3) the participants have protection reclaim their ETH if the project reneges on its promises or tries to exit scam. It’s not a comprehensive model, but a very good thought starter.\n\n\nLink: https://blog.goodaudience.com/a-proposal-for-a-fair-ico-model-using-p3d-fcc968b6615b \n\n\n**5.\t“The only way to kill a parasite is to stop feeding it. That’s why decentralisation matters”**\n\nI’m possibly saving the best for last here. Andreas really is the hero we don’t deserve, and in this video he goes full Bill Hicks in his diatribe against the ‘parasitic kleptocracy’ of central banking. I can only recommend you watch the whole thing for a passionate defence of why we need peer-to-peer money.\n\n\nLink: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgI0liAee4s \n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma1nY8r8pifCBFWnjeZDeNBCW9TKfrD6EXQPaJS7Zpfed/image.png)",
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      "author": "tonyfaccenda",
      "body": "![jeremy-bishop-102621-unsplash.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNb2Ft3E6hiYKiar4FxbrNApwvLo3L3EkXBCZ9HRTyVxC/jeremy-bishop-102621-unsplash.jpg)\n\n\nIt’s been a horrible week in the markets, but a great week in crypto-related content.\n\nI’ll leave the intro at that and dive right into what I learned this week…\n\n\n**1.\t“Markets are a way to organise a network with no single ruler”**\n\nOne of my favourite podcasts at the moment is Venture Stories, presented by Venture Global co-founder Erik Thorenberg. He typically has great guests on the show, but few better than on this episode: a live discussion with angel investor Naval Ravikant and Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasen. The conversation begins with a discussion on the role of networks in society, on which Naval has some illuminating thoughts: ‘We build networks, which have to be governed. Electricity is a network. The phone system is a network. Money is a network. Your favourite religion is a network. So it’s very important who runs these networks.’ According to Naval, blockchains are a way to bring these market-based networks into digital systems, allowing people to contribute scarce resources to maintain their integrity.\n\nLink: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/village-global/venture-stories/e/57268238\n\n\n**2.\tCryptonetworks are not companies**\n\nKeeping with the networks concept, I enjoyed reading this short Chris Burniske piece on cryptonetworks as a means for organising and incentivising human activity. These networks, he explains, are remarkably different beasts from the governments and corporations that have dominated the social and economic order to date, and so our understanding of them must also be different. As Chris puts it: These networks are ‘emerging economies using a protocol in place of the government, specialising in a single (digital) service, and capable of global scale from inception. The good ones, at least.’ His view is that rather than a multitude of networks emerging for every area of human activity, it’s more likely that a select few will build the effects necessary to sustain massive adoption. This means ‘the winners will be fewer but with returns greater than any other asset class from this time period.’\n\nLink: https://medium.com/@cburniske/cryptonetworks-are-not-companies-a307ad6a61ae?ref=tokendaily\n\n\n**3.\tValuing crypto networks**\n\nBuilding on that last point around the returns of this emerging asset class, Nathaniel Whittemore and Clay Collins released a detailed guide on evolving models for valuing crypto assets. We’ve covered this topic several times in recent weeks, but I would definitely recommend reading this as a rundown both of the inadequacies of ‘market cap’ as a valuation metric and how emergent models like MVRV and NVT are helping to address these shortcomings. There’s also a nice infographic at the bottom you can print out and stick to your wall for future reference.\n\nLink: https://blog.nomics.com/essays/crypto-market-cap-review-emerging-alternatives/\n\n\n**4.\tPutting the crypto crash in context**\n\nAs a tech industry veteran, Fred Wilson knows a thing or two about boom and bust cycles. It’s therefore worth reading this piece in which he discusses the slump in crypto prices in the context of a wider ‘de-risking’ that’s happening across all major markets. Ethereum bulls, who today saw the token drop below back into the double digits (just as Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes’ predicted), might take some relief in this quote: “Ethereum feels like the easiest one to make a bull case for right now. It is hated. Everyone has lost their shirt on it by now. Nobody other than developers want to know about it. It feels like time to start nibbling on it but not loading up on it.”\n\nLink: https://avc.com/2018/11/bleeding/\n\n\n**5.\tLearning to love the struggle**\n\nLet’s end today’s digest with another big-picture piece. Meltem Demirors wrote this article as a summary of what’s happened this year in the market from an investment perspective, and where we might be headed next. What’s particularly interesting is her commentary around the need to separate out investors and speculators. Investors, she says, are a critical part of the ecosystem but it must be understood that their survival is predicated on returns. Crypto startups therefore need to be mindful of the fact that: ‘selling all of your tokens to financial speculators is a great way to ensure your tokens will have no real utility.’ Her advice to those funds still holding on to tokens in the hope of a major rebound is stark: ‘Sell the assets, take the hit, and free up mental and emotional energy to focus on generating a return for investors’ – with many of the crypto funds that formed last year now operating on that basis, it’s likely we have some way to go before full capitulation hits the alts-market. Thankfully Meltem finishes her piece on a more positive note, discussing the ‘long road to utility’. She reminds us that while greater attention (both positive and negative) is being paid to the space, blockchain-based networks are ‘flawed, immature and experimental’ but they’re also ‘important and valuable’. On that basis, she concludes, ‘the future looks promising, but there’s still plenty of work to be done’.\n\n\nLink: https://medium.com/coinshares/the-truth-about-the-crypto-crisis-7a38125983d5\n\n\nIf those five links haven’t sated your crypto appetite for this week, here are a few other things you might want to check out:\n\n•\tBlock by Block’s library of crypto and blockchain resources: https://blockbyblock.io/resources\n•\tJimmy Song’s refutation of the ‘mysterious’ Satoshi signature that appeared last week (we all know it was you Craig Wright!): https://medium.com/@jimmysong/faketoshis-nonsense-signature-8700a44536b5\n•\tOutlier Venture’s report on VC investment in the blockchain space in Q3 18: https://outlierventures.io/research/state-of-blockchains-q3-the-professionals-have-moved-in-with-vc-investments-soaring-to-all-time-high/ \n•\tJosh Olszewicz’s fundamental research on Ethereum in light on recent developments: https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/ethereum-price-analysis-sec-takes-action-on-icos-dapps-and-dexs \n•\tHasu’s article on why ‘it’s ok to like fiat’ https://medium.com/swlh/why-bitcoin-3fdee2328759 \n\n\n\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbZsKfUchVmwMMAjtwoG3KpDdQe7CkALCBMVUpE2USft6/image.png)",
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      "author": "tonyfaccenda",
      "body": "![rawpixel-752523-unsplash.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWBLWj5UNE9XAsi6njY8hjdULveSY3zV6StpWDK5yyAfN/rawpixel-752523-unsplash.jpg)\n\nI think I speak for many when I say it’s been a really tough week in crypto. Principally, we lost crucial psychological support in BTC, which triggered another bleed-out across the market and likely extends the bear market into 2019. Moreover, the wasteful hash war between BCHABC and BCHSV, Craig Wright’s claims that every coin other than his own is doomed and the beginning of a likely slew of SEC enforcements against ICOs mean it’s unlikely to be a merry Christmas in crypto. Can we go back to 2017 please?\n\nIn any case, I’ll try my best to find five reasons to be cheerful. Here’s what I learned this week…\n\n \n**1.\tA new look at pricing models:**\n\nI applaud Chris Burniske for the work he’s done in trying to define valuation models for crypto assets – it’s no easy task. In his latest Medium post, Chris explores quantitative pricing models, drawing the distinction between fundamental value models and relative pricing models. For the former he revisits the MV = PQ equation he used in his book Cryptoassets, and for the latter he covers emerging models such as NVT and MVRV. He explains why relative models will likely be more widely used than fundamental models for the foreseeable term, concluding: “Most asset-classes already have consensus on suitable quantitative models, but market participants continue to disagree on the inputs to those models. Right now in crypto we disagree on both the models and the inputs — hence the volatility.”\n\nLink: https://medium.com/@cburniske/theory-follows-price-follows-theory-304ef97d1b71\n \n \n**2.\tThe potential of prediction markets:**\n\nYou would only need to look at my bio to guess one of the main applications of blockchain that has captured my interest. My admiration of Cindicator’s ‘hybrid intelligence’ model aside, I also pay close attention to the development of the Augur and Gnosis protocols. I was therefore salivating when I found this report by Circle Research on the current state of play in decentralised prediction markets. The report offers an even-handed account of what both projects (n.b. It also reviewed Stox, but I skipped that part) purport to bring to the crypto sphere and how they’re intended to function. It also assesses some of the key challenges and risks both face, including the limited scalability of the Ethereum platform and potential issues with regulators.\n\nLink: https://www.circle.com/marketing/pdfs/research/circle-research-prediction-markets.pdf\n \n\n**3.\tLook out for the bullish catalysts:**\n\nLast week I promised you a podcast recommendation, and here it is. One of my favourite market analysts in the space, Alex Kruger, appeared on The Dog Pound podcast/YouTube stream to provide a macro overview of the current environment. He discusses some of the longer-term catalysts for bullish growth, including market narratives that can reinforce the case for BTC as a store of value such as the Van Eck ETF. He also touches on the topic of when we’ll know we’ve hit the bottom, which in his view is when the sell side of the order book visibly dries up. It’s also worth sticking around until the end of the podcast for Trader Mayne’s TA roundup. \n\nLink: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ9uNk7Q7Bo\n\n\n4.\tIs Binance set to rule the world? \n\nI’m sure I’m not alone in finding The Block one of the most reliable and thought-provoking sources of news in the crypto space. This week reporter Larry Cermak (follow him on twitter at @lawmaster– he doesn’t hold back in calling out bs) wrote an in-depth piece on Binance’s rapid business expansion and future growth plans. He talks about the company’s ‘nimble’ approach to finding friendly regulatory jurisdictions and how this has provided a strong advantage over its more immobile competitors (e.g. Coinbase), which have had to be more cautious in listing new tokens. It remains to be seen, as Larry mentions, how this laissez-faire approach will be treated by US regulators. The article also discusses the company’s approach towards tackling malicious activity and nefarious actors on the platform, as well as plans to ‘become its own disruptor’ through creation of a DEX platform.\n\nLink: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2018/11/14/binance-the-misunderstood-master-plan-to-rule-the-crypto-universe-that-just-might-work/\n\nN.b. Also worth reading Amy Castor’s piece in the same publication on Binance’s approach to regulation: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/2018/11/16/fast-footwork-binance-has-danced-around-regulations-and-even-moved-itself-to-run-its-exchange-the-way-it-wants/  \n\n\n**5.\tThe dangers of comparing bitcoin with visa based on transaction throughput:** \n\nI find Nic Carter to be one of the most lucid minds in the crypto space and enjoy reading his posts. Earlier this week he wrote about the transferring of value on the Bitcoin protocol, and more specifically around the incompleteness of using transactions per second (tps) as a measure for Bitcoin’s success. He argues instead that tps should be combined with typical transaction characterises and settlement assurance to create a more accurate picture when weighing Bitcoin alongside electronic fund transfer systems like Visa. The article uses some really good visuals to demonstrate the point.\n\nLink: https://medium.com/@nic__carter/transaction-count-is-an-inferior-measure-fba2d5ac97f1\n\n\nBonus recommendation (just to really help cheer you up): I really liked this description of the crisis in the Silicon Valley startup ‘dream’ in Matthew Prewitt’s piece on blockchain governance…\n•\tWe wanted democratization, we got a crisis of democracy\n•\tWe wanted shared prosperity, we got grotesque inequality\n•\tWe wanted transparency, we got the end of privacy\n•\tWe wanted more information sources, we got a cacophony of fake news\n•\tWe wanted an ecosystem of startups, we got a new era of monopolies\n•\tWe wanted to connect with people from other walks of life, we got bubbles\n \n \nLink: https://medium.com/blockchannel/blockchain-is-governance-e0d827b97b3f\n\n\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRX5DDHZnYRQd7vZoevPx5MxA7zj4VYYFjwJnRjEQWz3x/image.png)",
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      "body": "Another week gone, another set of ideas and learnings to share. As usual crypto hasn’t been short of drama, not least the impending BCH ABC-SV hard fork and the escalating war of words between their respective proponents. But let’s keep our focus on the bigger picture.\n\nThis week I’ve learned…\n\n**1. If you build it, will they come?**\n\nNick Tomiano, an early Coinbase employee and founder of crypto fund 1Confirmation (along with its weekly newsletter The Control) wrote a post on the ‘community’ aspect of crypto, which he describes as ‘the most important characteristic of any cryptocurrency’. According to Nick, the challenge for founders, particularly those of a technical or mathematical bend (i.e. most crypto projects), is that building a stable community requires ‘an understanding of the whims of people rather than algorithms and mathematical proofs’. He discusses the key difference between a traditional company and a blockchain startup; in the former users and stakeholders are separate groups with separate incentives, while in the latter that separation doesn’t necessarily exist as a user may also be a token holder, miner, community ambassador, etc. Leading a crypto project therefore requires founders to establish a compelling vision that engages a wide set of community members both to use the product or platform and to participate in the governance aspect. The mantra founders need to adopt, Nick says, is “if you build it in the open, they will help.” His post also serves as a warning to the growing number of projects that are eschewing public token events in favour of private funding as that serves to create a separation between users and stakeholders, potentially to the project’s detriment.\n\nLink: https://thecontrol.co/on-cryptocurrency-communities-f592b5ce6b0b\n\n\n**2. Let the Gini out the bottle**\n\nOk I’ll lay off the poor pun attempts, but this Multicoin Capital post complements my first recommendation well. The article discusses the relevance of ‘Gini coefficient’ in crypto and the need to distribute token ownership across a wide holder base. Multicoin conducted a study of the top 500 addresses of several prominent coins to establish their respective Gini scores. Bitcoin, unsurprisingly, has the lowest coefficient (that’s a good thing) as PoW and wide liquidity helps to put it into many hands. Other coins analysed, including ERC20 tokens such as MKR, BAT and ZRX, performed poorly with over 80% of tokens concentrated in few hands. This forms the basis for their analysis of the flaws in the token sale and other token distribution models we’ve seen over the past year. This includes the failure of high-profile airdrops by projects such as OMG and XLM to broaden their respective communities.\n\nLink: https://multicoin.capital/2018/11/09/new-models-for-token-distribution/\n\n\n**3. Analysing the market cycle**\n\nLast week we talked about Howard Mark’s excellent Mastering the Market Cycle, and just this week I found this post from Felipe Gaucho Pereira on indicators for understanding the crypto market cycle. Felipe explains why ‘market cap’ analysis is inadequate in crypto, and explores a series of alternative measure that help to understand how Bitcoin is behaving at a fundamental level based on on-chain data. These measures include Thermocap (focus not on what buyers are paying for BTC on exchange, but how much it’s worth for miners to maintain it), realised value (valuing coins based on the price when they last moved rather than the current market value), and network value to transactions (study of Bitcoin’s strength as a payments network). The piece helps to bring together some of the great work that’s been done by the likes of Nic Carter, David Puell, Dimitry Kalichken and others on establishing valuation models.\n\nLink: https://medium.com/paradigma-capital/5-crypto-native-indicators-to-enrich-your-market-cycle-analysis-205b8b8e7314\n\n4. Don’t underestimate the power of order flow\n\nIt’s fairly evident that crypto has an obsession with technical analysis. Take a look at Twitter or any traders’ Telegram group and you’ll see an array of charts that try to decipher patterns and signals from market information. It’s less common, however, to see in-depth analysis of what’s going on within the order books. This post on Brave New Coin offers a detailed explanation of how to read order books, what information can be drawn from order book data and how to spot spoof orders (we see you spoofy!).\n\nLink: https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/trading-like-the-flash-boys-reading-order-flow\n\n\n**5. Check your biases**\n\nWatching crypto markets is a demonstration of mass psychology in action. Unlike many of the traditional markets, crypto is still weighed heavily towards human participants rather than bots. It follows then that to understand how crypto markets work you must understand human behaviour. Anyone who has read Robert Cialdini’s classic text Influence may already be aware of some of the biases that affect human decision-making. Regardless, this post from Buster Benson (originally from 2016, but recently updated) gives a solid overview of some of the mental factors that influence our decisions. Look out for cognitive traits such as confirmation bias, Gambler’s Fallacy and Halo Effect in particular. So next time you make an ill-advised shitcoin purchase based on a recommendation from a half-witted YouTuber, you’ll know who to blame — your stupid brain!\n\nLink: https://betterhumans.coach.me/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18\n\n\n**Next week**: I’ve got back into podcasts this week after a hiatus. While I’ve listened to a few, I can’t pick out any distinct learnings. I’ve got some good ones lined up though so expect a wider array of formats in next week’s post!",
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      "body": "![canva-mathematics,-count,-science,-study,-logarithm,-algebra-MACVs_1AxCo.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP2K9GTX3T4tUMYbbcxkHNLbFqjA7qy3mzw9R1ExQcXqG/canva-mathematics,-count,-science,-study,-logarithm,-algebra-MACVs_1AxCo.jpg)\n\n\nWelcome to week two of my crypto learnings diary! For the purpose of these posts see last week’s entry. This week is notable perhaps in that my attention largely hasn’t been on crypto directly, but on how this space fits within the wider context of economic and market theory. \n\nSo let’s dive in…\n\n\n**1.\t‘What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end’**\n\nMy audio book odyssey has continued this week with Howard Marks’ new publication Mastering the Market Cycle. It’s a great read/listen and I would thoroughly recommend it. The core idea of the book is that while markets are inherently unpredictable, they are governed by cycles upon which you can depend (note: for more on this concept watch Ray Dalio’s How the economic machine works). When in the ascending part of the cycle positivity pervades and investors become blinkered to the risks that lie ahead. When the cycle dips from unquestioning optimism to fear, investors can see only doom ahead. Howard’s point is that as an investor you need to position yourself to capitalise on the downturns and not become overexposed on the upturns. He discusses several boom and bust cycles, including the dotcom bubble and the global financial crisis, and how his investment firm used these cycles as profitable investment opportunities. Unsurprisingly (given Howard’s investment focus) there’s no mention of last year’s crypto market bubble, however anyone paying attention to Bitcoin and other assets will be able to relate with all the signs and hallmarks of market euphoria he talks about.\n\nLink: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Market-Cycle-Getting-Odds/dp/1328479250\n\n\n**2.\tMeeting the Masters of Money**\n\nAlmost by accident, I uncovered a fantastic set of BBC documentaries from 2012 that I had previously missed. Masters of Money [find links below] is a three-part series in which the beeb’s then economics editor Stephanie Flanders investigates the economic theories of three of the most influential economic thinkers of recent times – Keynes, Hayek and Marx – and applies their principles to the economic climate post-GFC. Where each of these thinkers differed most significantly is in their respective views on the role government should play in the economy. Keynes believed the government had a responsibility to intervene in the markets, especially to bring stimulus during times of recession. Hayek believed the market is a self-correcting organism that provides valuable information that can be used to more efficiently allocate capital and other resources. Thusly, market activity should be entirely unfettered by government meddling as this would necessarily bring inefficiency (and ultimately lay the path towards totalitarianism). Marx believed capitalism is inherently unstable and designed to reinforce the ruling class’s power. These ‘class war’ tensions are essential to the capitalist system and help bring about its own destruction, leading to a new economic model where state planning is used to protect workers and maintain equality. It’s incredibly interesting to consider all three of these models within the context of Bitcoin, which – it’s fair to say – is a large-scale experiment of Hayekian/Austrian economics in action.\n\nKeynes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkHooEp3vRE\nHayek - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIYqTj402PE\nMarx - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaIpYo3Z5lc\n\n\n**3.\tBuidl responsibly**\n\nMoving back to crypto, I enjoyed reading this write up of the Multicoin Summit which took place in New York in late October. The event sought to debate ‘the hard questions’ in blockchain and covered portfolio management, protocol governance and the development of the Web3 stack among other topics. The below quote from Katherine Wu, Head of Business Development and Community Management at Messari, really stood out for me:\n\n\"You can’t move fast and break things when building important public infrastructure and raising millions from non-professional investors. Buidlers need to buidl responsibly.\"\n\nKatherine makes a shrewd and important point as many crypto projects are being pressured to follow the lean startup/high growth model that has been pervasive in the tech sector for some years now. A cursory look at any project Telegram chat group shows impatient “investors” prodding the team for updates and signs that teams are over-extending to meet the ambitious milestones they listed in their whitepaper. Keep in mind, however, that unlike a photo-sharing iPhone app mistakes in developing a blockchain protocol can have serious and very costly implications. Move slowly, get it right.\n\nLink: https://tokeneconomy.co/https-tokeneconomy-co-multicoin-summit-recap-932a36e6aa01\n\n\n**4.\tMoving from speculation to engagement**\n\nI always enjoy reading the views of Fred Wilson, VC at Union Square Ventures, on developments in the crypto space. His recent post Engaging in Cryptonetworks is a particularly fascinating take on what it actually means to participate in this new form of value creation. Fred argues that to date, being ‘involved’ in crypto has largely meant either holding or speculating on tokens, but with the advent of Proof of Stake models there will be greater opportunity for individuals to support a network by ‘turning idle assets (e.g. their cash savings) into an income producing asset by staking, validating or governing to earn the rewards of that engagement.’ The implications of this investing approach, particularly for a new generation of investors that have never known bank interest or been able to relate to the ‘old money’ stock market, is huge.\n\n\n**5.\tBeware the Pyramid Scheme**\n\nI hate to bring such loaded and click-baity terms as ‘Pyramid’ and ‘Ponzi’ into a discussion on crypto (this work has been done ad nauseum already by cynics such as the FT), however this weekend I finally got round to watching the excellent Netflix documentary Betting on Zero. The film explores hedge fund manager Bill Ackman’s billion dollar short on multi-level marketing scheme Herbalife. The company had existed for more than 30 years on a business model predicated on the recruitment of new members rather than sales of a product with dubious health benefits. Ackman took particular exception to the company’s approach of exploiting Hispanic communities, to which representatives sold the ‘American Dream’ of riches untold, destroying savings accounts and lives in the process. One interesting view from Ackman on how the company had endured for so long was that ‘the bigger the lie, the more likely it will be believed’. Bringing it back to crypto, I see this as a cause for vigilance. We’ve already seen once major pyramid scheme in this space (Bitconnect), which imploded astonishingly quickly, and no doubt we’ll see many others. Such schemes can burn inexperienced investors and discredit the entire space and so must be outed and admonished as early as possible. Watching this documentary helped me to distinguish the defining nature of a pyramid scheme: any business or network that relies on recruiting/referring new members rather than delivering tangible business value should instantly be questioned. Though, as Ackman discovered, be careful with those shorts. \n\nLink: https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/80108609",
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      "body": "![chalkboard.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ5iBen4SSaT9q2RyZhqpFtWTjuz8qutGW5MctKAZ7znY/chalkboard.jpg)\n\n\nIt’s been around 18 months since I first started taking an active interest in crypto. The challenge of gaining a firm understanding of blockchain technology and its many implications has led me face-first into a range of subjects and disciplines that I never thought I’d be tackling. In any given week, I can find myself devouring a range of materials, including articles, guides, books, podcasts and in-person events covering topics such as network governance and scaling, crypto-economics, token valuation models and market psychology. Some help further my knowledge, others leave me with even more questions and points for clarification. Fortunately, each week presents a feast of new content to help push my understanding forward.\n\nI’ve written the round-up below to share some of the thoughts and opinions that have captured my attention this week. I’d like to do this regularly (hopefully weekly) and keep it as brief as possible, with a focus on big ideas rather than simply news items. The point of this isn’t so much to say ‘here are five great articles go read them’ but more to share some concepts that have stood out for me, and may make you want to explore further.\n\nHere is what I learned this week…\n\n**1. Blockchain enables ‘collective action around collective value’**\n\nSumming up the true value of blockchain in concise terms can be a difficult challenge. After all, the term has become a ‘catch all’ for a range of dissimilar things, including cryptocurrencies, decentralised application platforms, smart contracts, tokenised network models and enterprise-focused DLT applications. I was relieved therefore to hear Piers Ridyard of Radix find a simple and compelling way of uniting all these innovations. Speaking at SVK’s event in London, he explained how the technology’s potential to facilitate and incentivise collaboration could have incredible implications for both business and society. If you’re in London, look out for further SVK events here.\n\n**2. Tokenisation can be the next disruptive business model…if properly engineered and designed**\n\nOne of the highlights of this week has been the publication of Outlier Ventures’ Token Ecosystem Creation report. The report looks at the architecture and engineering required for a sustainable and thriving token ecosystem. It explains the firm’s thesis that tokenisation will enable new forms of economic value and outlines a range of important concepts on which any tokenised project should focus, including token design, utility, scaling and consensus. I particularly enjoyed the examples of how projects such as Ocean Protocol are engineering their token to encourage the user behaviours required for the network to function properly. You can find the full report here.\n\n**3. Bitcoin could go up, down, down-then-up or up-then-down. Clear?**\n\nThis week I’ve enjoyed watching the series of streams on Tone Vays’ YouTube channel in which he, BTC trader Venzen and analyst Willy Woo engaged in a laid-back [they were at a beach resort in Thailand after all] discussion on a range of topics centring around technical analysis, price action and network-value-to-transactions (NVT) ratios. The streams, while long, are worth watching, at the very least to mentally escape the UK winter. One of the points I found most interesting was their discussion on BTC price development. Each of the three had entirely different ways of evaluating the market and arrived at completely different conclusions; Tone is short-term bearing, Willy is bullish and Venzen predicts a short-term bull run followed by a medium-to-long terms sharp correction to well below where we are now. It’s encouraging that even the experts can’t agree on what’s going to happen next.\n\n**4. Can smart contracts replace corporations? Not quite yet.**\n\nOne of the many blockchain-based concepts that interests me is its potential to reinvent business models and displace the hierarchical corporate structures that have dominated the past century through self-executing smart contracts. The concept of a Decentralised Autonomous Organisation (DAO) is not new, and indeed has been tainted by failed experience. The idea however remains appealing: replace traditional corporate functions such as governance, logistics and labour management with code in order to remove the middleman and create a new era of efficiency. Sounds great, right? I’ve been thinking about this concept a lot recently, so this article from Daniel Jeffries proved timely in providing me with some restraint. Daniel provides a historical account of how the corporation has evolved in order to argue that until DAOs can replicate and offer more than what business structures offer today, it’ll be some time before our working lives are governed by code.\n\n**5. There are some things even the best technical analysts can’t predict**\n\nI have recently got into audio books, and this week have been working my way through Mark Douglas’s Trading in the Zone. Written nearly 20 years ago, the book gives insight into the mental approach required to successfully trade financial markets. He tells a great story about a technical analyst who begins a role at a commodities trading firm. The chairman of the firm, a veteran of the trading pits and open outcry, is sceptical of TA and asks the analyst to explain how the skill could be applied to soybeans futures markets. The analyst carefully explains the concept of support and resistance, and how soybeans’ price has hit resistance and is moving towards support. When the market dropped into the support area the chairman asked the analyst whether this would be the lowest price of the day. Confidently, the analyst replied ‘absolutely’. The chairman then picked up the phone to his broker and ordered he sell two million contracts of soybeans, causing the market to plunge to new depths. It’s worth bearing in mind whenever any crypto market expert seems too sure on price movements — anything can happen!",
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      "body": "Congratulations @tonyfaccenda! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/voted.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@tonyfaccenda) Award for the number of upvotes received\n\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-ranking-update-resteem-and-resteemed-added\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfRVpHQhLDhnjDtqck8GPv9NPvNKPfMsDaAFDE1D9Er2Z/header_ranking.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-ranking-update-resteem-and-resteemed-added\">SteemitBoard Ranking update - Resteem and Resteemed added</a></td></tr></table>\n\n> Support [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)! **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "body": "![rekt.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmc6fncTadHrLgMqFfuCSsyquSEtdu4giPgwJ3zE3KQhwS/rekt.jpg)\n\nFor newcomers, crypto can be an intimidating place. From the moment you realise there’s more to the space than simply Bitcoin and Ethereum, you’re quickly overwhelmed with scores of coins and tokens purporting to disrupt the status quo through their unique use of blockchain technology. You spend weeks or even months of scouring through whitepapers, Reddit posts and Telegram chats, and find a handful of projects that capture your interest. You send your hard-earned bitcoin to an exchange you’ve never heard of, market buy their token (invariably at an all-time high), and you’re now an ‘investor’. You can just sit back and wait for 100X, right?\n\nMany a noob has entered crypto with such lofty goals. Inevitably however, after watching their investments hit soaring highs and plunge to devastating lows, the aspiring Warren Buffet feels unsatisfied with HODLing and is lured by a new ambition: to become a crypto trader. After all, trading a volatile market with high growth potential must be a breeze - buy the blood when everything’s tanking, and sell into wide-eyed euphoria when there’s a sea of green. This formula seems so simple, you could be set for retirement by Christmas.\n\nFrom afar, you may imagine crypto traders spend their day in a Zen-like state; contemplatively analysing past market movements from multiple time horizons and colourfully annotating Trading View charts into something resembling a Picasso painting, all to arrive at the nirvana of an accurate price forecast. In reality, the life of a crypto trader can be gruelling. Trading highly speculative assets in a 24/7 market with little if any solid fundamentals to help guide, traders need much more than simply technical prowess - they need also to master their mental game. It’s only by escaping subjective judgements that traders can begin to spot patterns amid the madness of crowd behaviour and forecast future price action.\n\nTo have a fighting chance on the psychological battlefield, here are six rules any aspiring crypto trader should follow:\n\n\n**1.\tDon’t try and put your will on the market**\n\nOne thing that differentiates the crypto market from many other financial assets is the intimate connection holders have with their tokens. Traders in commodities, stocks or forex tend to carry out their duties with a steely sense of dispassion – they’re typically professionals and their sole objective is profit. Many amateur crypto traders, on the other hand, make the error of ‘falling in love’ with their favourite tokens, and this personal connection can cloud their judgement on any fundamental value that may exist.\n\nIt’s important therefore that you take a step back and don’t think that just because you think a project has a great team and vision that it’s going to go up. Equally, just because you dislike a project doesn’t mean it’s going to zero. Taking a step back and seeing the market as it really is, and not as you want it to be, is vitally important for your survival as a trader.\n\n**2.\tDon’t let your emotions get in the way of good trades (avoid FOMO)**\n\nIn fast-moving markets, letting your feelings and emotions take hold can ruin a trade. You may see a coin in which you’ve been scaling your position drop well below what you had forecast, or conversely, a coin you thought was going to drop into your buy zone begin to skyrocket. You may stare in disbelief or feel the urge to throw out your strategy and move with your emotions, but this is the road to regret. After all, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. \n\nThis is where discipline is critically important. Knowing your entry point and price target before you’ve even logged into a trading or exchange platform and sticking to a defined set of rules will keep you on the right path, even when the market tries to throw you off course.\n\n**3.\tDon’t fall for hype**\n\nIn a speculative market like crypto, mere rumour and speculation can have a disproportionate effect on coin prices. It’s common, therefore, to see a wave of excitement build around a supposed market event that could have far-reaching implications for a particular asset’s future prospects. Where this speculation feels convincing – for example a partnership with an established tech giant like Microsoft or Baidu or a listing on a respected exchange such as Binance or Coinbase – it’s easy to fall for hearsay and jump on the rocket, only to see the trend sharply reverse soon after once the rumour proves baseless.\n\nCast a sceptical eye over any news and speculation. Unless you’re a crypto A-lister with the inside track assume that any market-sensitive information, such as mainnet launches, exchange listings or corporate partnerships, has already made its way around the inner circles and is baked into the price long before it’s hit your newsfeed. Applying the right news filters to spot macro trends will help you cut through the noise and make more rational decisions.\n\n**4.\tDon’t put your faith in false prophets**\n\nAs an individual participant, it’s easy to take a warped view of the markets. Perhaps the news sources you read or the Twitter accounts you follow have given you an inaccurate or skewed impression of what’s going on. In many cases it’s harmless – like YouTube ‘experts’ projecting their limited knowledge for clicks. Other times, there’s something more sinister at play. Lacking the protective layers that regulate traditional markets, it’s almost unavoidable that there’ll be powerful individuals who exploit their influence for their own enrichment or to increase their buying power. \n\nIn crypto, you need to be sceptical of everything you read and hear. Ask yourself ‘is there a self-interested reason the person holds this view? What is the worst reason they could be making these outlandish statements or predictions?’ As Charlie Munger once wisely said “Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome”. Heed these words and take nothing as gospel.\n\n**5.\tDon’t get left behind**\n\nThe nature of analysing markets has changed significantly in recent decades. Long gone are the days where traders on the raucous pit floor would analyse the behaviour of other traders for signals on whether to go long or short. In the digital age, data drives trading success. The best crypto traders not only have the right skills and mental approach to profit from the markets, but they also use the best tools and technology available to give themselves an edge.\n\nTo optimise your trading performance, you need to continually be looking for new tools to add to your armoury. Applications like Cindicator (crowd forecasting), CoinFi (market-moving news analysis), Coinigy (technical indicators), Coinmarketcal (upcoming market events) and CoinGecko (market rankings and code repository analysis) are just some of the tools that can help enhance your odds of making profitable trades. There are plenty more, either live or in development. Go out and find them.\n\n**6.\tDon’t fall in battle** \n\nIt’s been said that the market is the fiercest arena of gladiatorial combat. It’s a zero-sum game where the winner gets the lambo and the loser is left holding the bags. What separates the winner and the loser is good decision-making coupled with solid risk management. As with any battle, you don’t want to go into combat unprepared. To navigate uncertain markets, you need to exert caution until you’re absolutely sure the risk-reward ratio is in your favour. Throwing the kitchen sink at a new coin with an all-star advisory team, or going guns blazing on Bitmex at the first suggestion of a new uptrend may feel like the path to untold millions, but without proper stops and contingency planning, you’re crossing the line that separates a well-disciplined trader from a hit-and-hope gambler. \n\nNo matter how much larger the crypto market gets over the next five years, you have no chance of benefitting from it if you’ve squandered your capital. Stay in the game, keep your cool and don’t get rekt.\n\n\nPicture credit: https://www.teepublic.com/t-shirt/2511216-get-rekt\n\n**Disclaimer** I am not by any means a professional trader. I’m a mere hobbyist and crypto enthusiast. Please do not construe anything I say as financial or investment advice.",
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      "body": "![CND-logo.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmahySi1JRf6Le1nsdCUoMcH3Hcwag1Zd24yEoiXmy9MGo/CND-logo.jpg)\n\n*The following article documents my reflections on the past year; how I came to be part of the Cindicator community, some of the key moments and milestones since the token event from my observations, and why the experience of the past 12 months fills me with enthusiasm for Cindicator’s future.*\n\n\nMy relationship with Cindicator began in the summer of 2017. While only little more than a year ago, it feels like almost an eternity. The ICO boom was in full force and market sentiment was through the roof. Looking at the space through the lens of social media (at the time, though it seems surprising now, Facebook was my main window into the world of crypto), the sense of positivity was palpable. Almost every new project and well-worked whitepaper were being greeted with wide-eyed optimism and a (slightly unhealthy) suspension of disbelief: a fledgling crypto project could purport to be the Web 3.0 equivalent of PayPal, Airbnb or even Google without it seeming preposterous. There was a revolutionary fervour in the air and no business model, it seemed, was safe from the disruptive impact of decentralisation.\n\nWe know now that this radicalism was, at best, premature. In retrospect, it wasn’t just the crypto investors who were drinking the Kool-Aid — many of the projects were too. Raises of $50m+ were quickly becoming the norm to finance the new economy, capitalising on both the global reach of the market and the wave of euphoria that was sweeping over (largely unsophisticated) investors.\n\n**Predicting the future**\n\nI first heard about Cindicator in a Facebook chat group. Amidst the feverish speculation in the group, something about Cindicator stood out to me. Firstly, the idea was predicated on something I hadn’t even considered. They weren’t trying to displace an existing legacy organisation or tech disruptor-come-behemoth. Cindicator’s proposition instead harnessed something that wasn’t possible in a centralised, company-centric paradigm: the project sought to harness the predictive power of a decentralised network of market analysts. This made more sense to me when I watched CTO Yuri Lobyntsev explain in a YouTube interview the notion of the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and how it could be used in a decentralised ecosystem to generate financial forecasts with a previously unimaginable level of accuracy.\n\nSecondly, amidst the ICO madness, the project appeared attractive due to its clear intent on what it wanted from its fundraising. Unlike other projects raising at the time, Cindicator wasn’t opening the floodgates for anyone to pour money into the project. They had a sober-headed hardcap set at $15 million and were extremely selective on who they were allowing to participate. This sense of focus was refreshing and gave insight into the level of professionalism and long-term outlook the team would continually show over the coming year. The ICO was held in September 2017. It was managed methodically and judiciously, completely sidestepping the growing trend of ICO hysteria and avaricious ‘gas wars’.\n\n**Riding the bull**\n\nWith its funding in place, the Cindicator team set to work on realising the vision it described in its whitepaper. Again, in an environment of hype and empty promises, Cindicator stood out from the pack with a clearly defined roadmap. The Cindicator forecasting app was already live, so the team’s focus was on (1) extending this app into a desktop client that would be more suitable for market research, chart analysis, etc., and (2) the launch of two core products — Cindicator Bot, a Telegram bot it would use to disseminate indicators to token holders, and its sister Cryptometer Bot, which identifies arbitrage opportunities arising from market inefficiencies.\n\nCome Q4 2017, and these products launched against the backdrop of one of the most rampant bull markets in financial history. It seemed fated: the Cindicator Bot was the perfect accompaniment to the bull market, perfectly capturing the wild public sentiment and mania as day after day different coins took their turn to rally. For those in Cindicator’s Telegram chat group, it felt like the holy grail: every investor in the market was desperately seeking out whichever coin would ‘pop’ next, and those with Cindicator Bot had the inside scoop.\n\nUnsurprisingly, given the fervour at the time, news spread around the market of Cindicator’s predictive power, bringing with it interest in the CND token. Speculative whispers grew louder that the price of a single CND token could go to 30c, $1…even $5! It’s testament to the state of the market that even with more than 1.4 billion tokens in circulation, this didn’t seem an outlandish valuation for a product that one Cindicator user on Telegram described as a ‘money-printing machine’. Despite this mania, the Cindicator team didn’t get ahead of themselves. They kept working to improve the app, steadily increase the number of indicators released, and update the roadmap without buying into the hype.\n\n**Building in a bear market**\n\nBy late January, the inevitable happened. The mania of the bull market came to an abrupt halt and prices across the board crashed. At first it felt like a temporary blip, but the longer it continued the more sentiment changed and it became clear we were looking at an extended bear market.\n\nThis period came with its challenges for every project in the crypto market, and not least for Cindicator given that its core product — still in its infancy — was tasked with keeping a gauge on investors’ changing attitudes. The Bot had launched amidst euphoria, and now it was adapting to a period of mixed sentiment. Public hopes for a renewed bull run were being tempered with a growing realisation that the market was headed for a severe correction. More and more, this was being reflected in the indicators — the 70–80% indicators of bullish moves that had regularly been seen in December and January were gradually being replaced with sentiments as low as 10–20%.\n\nAs the dopamine dissipated and the new reality set in, it became more apparent that people were feeling pain. Across social media sites like Twitter and Reddit, ad hominem attacks on crypto influencers and disparagement of crypto projects were becoming increasingly visible. Throughout this tumultuous period, Cindicator did what it’s always done — the team continued to build. It made several additions to the team to strengthen in key areas such as data science and marketing, launched its first neural network (crucial for the Machine Learning component of the project), created a ‘Symbiotic Network’ of philosophically aligned companies, launched new products like Token Sale Review and made a steady stream of improvements to its existing products. Moreover, the size of the community continued to grow, surpassing 115k registered app users and more than 17,000 token holders, and the team also launched initiatives such as expert Q&As, trading events and its Avantgarde ambassador program to strengthen the ecosystem.\n\n**One year on**\n\nThe impact of these building efforts is now coming to fruition and Cindicator today stands in a position of strength. The people that have stuck with the community genuinely believe in its vision and the technology underpinning Cindicator is continuing to improve and learn about one of the most complex and unpredictable markets in existence (evidenced by increasingly strong accuracy results). With the recent integration of CND tokens as rewards in the Cindicator App, more people will be incentivised to participate in the network and stake tokens for higher level product access.\n\nFor me personally, my confidence and belief in Cindicator has never been greater. I have always been hugely impressed by the team’s clear-headedness, commitment and ‘long-game’ approach. The crypto markets are still immature but will undergo seismic change in the coming years as new participants — including traditional financial institutions and digitally-native Gen Z investors — enter the market. Cindicator is well positioned to grow with this evolving market and continue to offer a unique value to those in its ecosystem.\n\nI have no doubt at all that Cindicator is set for great things over the coming years, and I’m proud to be an active part of it. Well done team on reaching this milestone and best of luck for year two!",
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      "author": "spiritualmatters",
      "body": "The big downside of Medium is the membership fee.  ✌",
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      "body": "Thank you! :)\n\nI didn't actually monetise my Medium so I'm not sure. I think you have to build a large audience before it could become a source of income. SteemIt needs a bit of work before it can compete with Medium from a visual/UX perspective, but interested to see how its business model sets it up for the long term.",
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      "author": "coin.info",
      "body": "**Coins mentioned in post:**\n\nCoin | | Price (USD) | 📉 24h | 📉 7d\n- | - | - | - | -\n**BTC** | Bitcoin | 6786.810$ | _-0.55%_ | _6.26%_\n**CND** | Cindicator | 0.033$ | _0.08%_ | _-0.11%_\n**IVY** | Ivy | 0.058$ | _0.0%_ | _-10.24%_\n**WAN** | Wanchain | 2.410$ | _-4.58%_ | _-5.81%_",
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      "author": "spiritualmatters",
      "body": "@@ -92,16 +92,29 @@\n ral; but\n+ economically\n , more o\n",
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      "author": "spiritualmatters",
      "body": ">Medium\n\nWas the payout on the Medium platform 'lucrative'? Steem platforms are pretty liberal; but, more of a hobby than part-time/full-time gig for most.\n\nBest regards.\n\nBtw, welcome to Steemit!\n\nPeace.",
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      "author": "tonyfaccenda",
      "body": "![cindicator-1200x628-38.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ2CnTCzTRx71vZv6eaYpqm4JPXYKFywPPtKDBzVd6Fce/cindicator-1200x628-38.jpg)\n\n*Note: This article was originally published on Medium in April, and subsequently won 'Best Trader Insight' in Cindicator's Insights Challenge*\n\n\n\n“Trading has taught me not to take the conventional wisdom for granted. What money I made in trading is testimony to the fact that the majority is wrong a lot of the time. The vast majority is wrong even more of the time. I’ve learned that markets, which are often just mad crowds, are often irrational; when emotionally overwrought, they’re almost always wrong.”\n\n— Richard Dennis\n\n\nI’ve recently finished reading Michael Covel’s classic book The Complete TurtleTrader. It recounts the story of legendary commodities trader Richard Dennis and his experiment with a group of market novices. Following a debate with a colleague over whether successful traders are born or made, Dennis recruited students from a variety of social and professional backgrounds to take part in his training. He gave them funds from his own portfolio and a set of rules he’d learned on the Chicago trading floors, and then left them to become trading superstars.\n\nThe experiment was deemed a success, spawning several generations of successful traders that applied Dennis’s unconventional systems and philosophies to out-perform many of the top traders on Wall Street.\n\nFast forward to 2018. The big investment firms have the talent, technology and guile to rule the markets, using every algorithmic and analytical advantage they can to gain maximum returns for their investors. Surely this environment is no place for novice traders to be risking their capital?\n\nMeet Cindicator Bot…\n\nCindicator is a project designed to fuse the wisdom of the crowd (or, more accurately, its 90,000 geographically dispersed market analysts) with machine learning to provide time-sensitive indicators for both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.\n\n\n# Decentralised market analysis\n\nTo understand the genius of Cindicator, it’s important to understand the benefits of decentralised forecasting. If I were a private hedge fund manager, I could employ a group of Ivy League grads and pay them handsomely to study the markets and provide me with their best analysis on market events and price movements. This has obvious benefits; they are no doubt highly-intelligent and well qualified to compile quality fundamental and technical analysis on the assets the fund trades.\n\nThere are also drawbacks. Even the smartest analysts are subject to inescapable human flaws. In every piece of analysis, they fight innate preconceptions, prejudices and impulses that can cloud their judgement or guide them towards the (generally unprofitable) status quo. There are geographical hindrances too. Having the analysts located in established financial or technological hubs (such as Wall Street or Silicon Valley) can mean they are by default exposed to the same ‘group-think’ as other major market participants. A contrarian trading strategy can be more difficult to formulate when your analysts are following the same market narratives as your competitors.\n\nWith Cindicator, the dynamic is entirely different. They have assembled a decentralised ecosystem of analysts with diverse backgrounds, different professional experience, and differing market outlooks. They are motivated to contribute to the collective success, and incentivised to make their best forecasts through financial rewards for the accuracy of their forecasts. While the project is still in its early days, the collective approach to market analysis has the potential to outperform centralised teams of analysts, no matter the prestigious company banner under which they work. This will be especially the case as the neural networks underpinning Cindicator Bot’s AI grows in strength, allowing for back testing of models to improve the accuracy of predictions.\n \n \n![low_speedchase.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTHtNYfakBgu5CmNUDYLi73ZVt8ke1i1nGNaVR1K5pWEc/low_speedchase.jpg)\n\n\n# The turtle finds its bite\n\nIn Dennis’s experiment, the ‘turtles’ were so called as he had seen a group of turtles being bred in a tank on a trip to Singapore. Using this as an analogy for what he could achieve with his cohort of rookie traders, he set about arming them with the tools they needed to take on Wall Street’s greatest and win.\n\nIn the Turtle experiment, the novice traders were held to a set of strict rules to help them navigate the markets. These rules included:\n\n- Focus on price movements rather than relying on information from TV or newspapers in making trading decisions\n- Set clear parameters for buy and sell signals, e.g. turtles were taught to go long on a stock that had hit a 20 or 55 day price breakout (and short on the reverse)\n- Plan your exit as you plan your entry\n- Calculate volatility and use this to vary position size, i.e. the greater the volatility the lesser your position size\n- Don’t ever risk more than 2% of your account on a single trade\n- To get big returns, you need to be comfortable with large drawdowns. If a trade loses money, be ready to move on without feeling personally affected.\n\nWhat was clear from the book was that Rich Dennis’s philosophy was all about what’s happening in the market right now. He didn’t care about past price movements or the fundamental aspects of the markets he and his turtles traded (he famously said he could trade a market without even knowing its name). All he cared about was following the trends the market is showing at that precise moment, and having proper risk management in place to get out of the trade if the breakout or breakdown turned out to be a false signal.\n\nFor a modern-day turtle, this wisdom still holds immense relevance for devising a consistent and well-disciplined trading framework. However, is it enough to take on the wolves of Wall Street and their high-frequency trading bots?\n \n \n![tumblr_l46kbnNrD01qzpwi0o1_500_square_fullsize.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbzACtcTcaAKibc3Xv7T6sVxqH5cFUsNtqfxkjetbK49d/tumblr_l46kbnNrD01qzpwi0o1_500_square_fullsize.jpg)\n\n\n# Turtle Power\n\nFor the modern trend follower, Cindicator Bot is the perfect companion. Over the course of each week, users receive a range of market indicators drawn from its analyst pool. These include:\n\n- Weekly support and resistance levels; i.e. what is the price range that a particular asset will move within over the course of a week.\n- Market event probability indicators; i.e. How likely is it that a particular macro event will occur that could impact market movements;\n- Price level indicators i.e. how likely is it that an asset will trade above or below a specific price level\n- Binary EPS indicators; i.e. will publicly-listed companies meet earnings forecasts\n- ICO rankings; with hundreds of new crypto assets listing each month, which projects are likely to achieve the greatest growth based on their ICO price.\n\nFor a turtle trading in the moment, this is all essential information for planning exactly when to enter and exit a trade. As the old saying goes, it’s better to be out of the market wishing you were in than in the market wishing you were out. With Cindicator Bot you can avoid the trap of jumping in too soon, and instead make sure your trades are timed to capture the greatest upside.\n\n\n# Putting Cindicator Bot to work\n\nLet’s take an example from the crypto market. In late March, Wanchain’s Wancoin was listed on Binance. Nearly six months on from its ICO, the coin had been subject to a great deal of hype and subsequently there was a lot of pent up buying pressure. So much so, the coin listed on the exchange on 23 March at around 10X its ICO price.\n\nMaking an immediate upward surge, a turtle trader may have felt the inexorable urge to dive it and ride the trend. On 26 March, Cindicator Bot provided a cautionary indicator as to whether Wancoin, then priced at 0.000486 BTC would trade above 0.00053 BTC by 6 April, i.e. would the price increase continue over the two proceeding weeks. The likelihood of such an outcome was forecast at only 22.74%.\n\nFollowing the release of the indicator, the price of Wancoin actually declined and fell to 0.0003980 BTC, before resuming its upwards trajectory. On 6 April, it rose to 0.0004749, before beginning a surge on 7 April. It hit a high for the month of 0.0008550 (115% profit) on 13 April. A turtle who therefore heeded Cindicator Bot’s advice and held off on the trade and picked up the dip could have more than doubled their money in only 10 days.\n\n\n![other-wolf-pack-snow-animals-wolkves-nature-woelfe-rudel-wald-raubtiere-phone-wallpapers-1-1038x576.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUwxEYb9Mr94EcC94K1z1GVYk1KJcaUqKTtfLpLAExyjL/other-wolf-pack-snow-animals-wolkves-nature-woelfe-rudel-wald-raubtiere-phone-wallpapers-1-1038x576.jpg)\n\n\n# Ahead of the wolf pack\n\nFor a newcomer, the markets are undoubtedly daunting. Sudden and often counter-intuitive movements can bring riches or ruin depending on which side of the trade you’re on. Even the most experienced and battle-hardened trader will sometimes be in the red, yet will have the right strategy and risk management set up to make sure the odds of victory remain in their favour over their preferred time horizon.\n\nThe greatest threat to the novice investor comes from not knowing how to react to uncertainty. What’s the right time to get in? When should I get out? What if the market turns against me? Market success is all about decision making, and the trader with the best information to support their trading hypotheses will not only be able to make more confident buying decisions but also to install a more prudent risk management framework.\n\nUtilising Cindicator Bot, a turtle trader is able to harness the dispassionate wisdom of a decentralised and geographically spread pool of analysts to make significantly better decisions than could be made feeding off of one’s own emotions and prejudices. The trend may be your friend, but Cindicator Bot is your true market companion.",
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      "body": "I love blogging. It’s one of the most valuable, and often underappreciated, features the Internet offers. The confluence of freely accessible publishing platforms and visibility to a wide network of readers gives everyone the opportunity to share their voice, form a more compelling argument and enhance their learning in the process.\n\nThe pervasive spread of digital has already had a seismic impact on the media industry. The first wave of disruption post-dot com boom helped break the monopoly on the printed word held by traditional, often behemothic media and publishing houses. This disruption has compounded with the continual evolution of channels through which ideas and opinions can be shared, from early blogging platforms like Blogger and Typepad, through to more sophisticated sites like Wordpress.com and Medium.\n\nSuch sites are without doubt attractive to writers. They’re easy to setup and make it easy to engage a wide audience through their in-built content discovery mechanisms. Never forget, however, that when you build your content home on platforms governed by a fundamentally profit-seeking central party, you play by their rules and are subject to their whims.\n\nI believe that the next wave of disruption will be the eradication of the central authority that still exists in these online publishing platforms, towards a decentralised and censorship resistant paradigm that incentivises and rewards creatives for the work they produce. Only then will social journalism be truly democratised.\n\nI started using Medium earlier this year as a platform for sharing articles I’d written on the flourishing and endlessly fascinating world of crypto. I’d long used the site to enjoy posts from a range of fascinating minds, found through the personalised digest I receive in my inbox each day. Setting up an account, this was my opportunity to share the findings of countless hours of research I’d done into ICOs and other emergent projects. \n\nI was overawed with the reception my articles were receiving on Medium. With each post I was getting more views, more claps and more subscribers. I even won a prize for an article I published on strategies for crypto trading. The effortless virality of the site made me want to publish more, putting weekends aside for crafting new posts.\n\nThen they suspended my account.\n\nThe exact reason why they suspended it, I don’t know. They gave me a vague response via email that contained a copy and paste of their T&Cs. My understanding is that the mentions of specific crypto projects in my articles triggered their red flags. Nothing I’d written was sponsored, yet they saw it as a breach of their rules.\n\nWhile it’s frustrating to have hours of work rendered invisible due to overreach by the site’s administrators or algorithms, I see it as an opportunity. It’s a chance for me to start again and use SteemIt as my publishing platform of choice. \n\nWhy is this important? Well, for me it’s about walking the walk. In my articles and interviews I talk about crypto and the necessity for us to move beyond concept to real-world deployment if we’re ever to hit mainstream adoption. The best way to move towards this reality, I feel, is to actively participate in the tokenised economy. \n\nFrom now on, where there’s a product or service I use that has a decentralised alternative I’m going to make the switch. That may mean using Brave rather than Chrome. DNN rather than Google News. Ethlance over UpWork. Possibly even Peepeth over Twitter (though weaning myself away from crypto twitter would require a long transition).\n\nAs a starting point I’m going to bring some of the work I did on Medium over to this platform, then I intend to start writing more regular project reviews and opinion pieces. And even if Medium does unsuspend my account, I won’t go crawling back.\n\nViva la revolución.\n\n\n![](https://cdn![images.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQma1Hi7tMW95GDwscXmZSLNLUMf1WxRpYgNfZhWD57uuLc/images.png).steemitimages.com/DQmSdL7SZDE7NEm3iwwy4CuL6Fyh8Qk6KWzw5WpnDXdZGf4/image.png)\n\nImage credit: Pixabay",
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