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      "body": "Congratulations @thestoicobserver! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@thestoicobserver/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@thestoicobserver) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](http://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=thestoicobserver)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeoNp9iCaCfd2D6TqnWa3Aky2mU4Fm3xaSmjTM91YoNBS/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\">SteemitBoard to support the german speaking community meetups</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "We are witnessing a strange moment in the markets at the moment. Currently, with a massive net speculative long position in oil and a massive net speculative short position in the dollar. Everyone is massively either short the dollar or long oil. These two conditions are ingredients for a napalm run on either the dollar or oil markets.\n![long oil.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmd8Ru5YXJq9uSWUKVjYEfGzJ47bmUoUaFHfErZixq5dXP/long%20oil.jpg)\n\nWith global growth slowing down according to most leading indicators, a dollar rally is usually expected as capital comes back to the US because it is the safest market in the investing world in times of duress/ slowdown. \n We therefore expect other currencies to fall faster relative to the US dollar i.e. The US dollar outperforms other currencies. This is why we think the US dollar rally is not done as of yet. This usually has negative effects on the oil market due to oil being priced in dollars. In other words, as the Dollar rallies oil tends to fall. But over the last two or so weeks we are witnessing something rather interesting. They are both moving in the same direction. THIS WILL NOT LAST.\n\n![usd oil.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmes7J1Zh7jm7gkF9AZCo4ZEt8KwAdYVz1qx7Zz81VqUKf/usd%20oil.jpg)\n\nWe entered a long oil position late last year and a long OXY position in February.  This morning I took some profits off the table and swapped into a long dollar vs a basket of other currency trades for the next few months that trade seems to be working well so far and we believe they are a good hedge in this current environment. I will advice traders to start looking at these sort of trades and keeps the USD and Oil on their watch-lists as things can start to get ver interesting.\n\n  Ladies and Gents I would advise everyone to be careful as we are reaching some interesting levels in these markets and they trend fast very fast in-fact! Therefore it is imperative that you keep your stops tight and emotions steady. Until Net Time.\n\nPeace ! RMD \n\nDisclosure There is risk in trading markets. REAL MACRO DYNAMICS reports are based upon information and research gathered from various sources and believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information in this report is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information contained in this report is subject to change without notice. It should not be assumed RMD’s methods as presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. The indicators and strategies are provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investment(s)",
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      "body": "Inflation has been happening for many years already.\nWas I not right about FRIDAY _Bond Blood Bath_ ?\nThis coming week will be even worse.",
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      "title": "",
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      "body": "Don't be so quick sometimes everyone is short bonds atm.  With the record short position on bonds the trend could reverse if inflation disappoints. So inflation is the thing to watch here.",
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      "body": "“Does Big Brother exist?\"\n\"Of course he exists. The Party exists. Big Brother is the embodiment of the Party.\" \n\"Does he exist in the same way as I exist?\"\n\"You do not exist.” ― George Orwell, 1984\n\n                                     Google IS Your God\n\nIf you do not believe me think of your name and your profile picture then think of anything you have ever put into that search bar: “How to get to get to work from home? How do I cure slap cheek? How to know if she likes me? What is the weather like today? How do I get divorced?’’ Google knows if you are having a new baby and what the sex is likely to be before you tell some of your close friends. How might you ask? It is quite simple if you haven’t already noticed.    \n\n You ask Google these questions when you input into the search engine. After hitting the keys into that search bar, Google like the all-knowing almighty answers your questions and like an answered prayer, it leaves you satisfied. Sit and think about this carefully and you will soon realize that you trust Google more than any entity in the world.  \n\n  Both Google and Facebook are THE biggest monopolists of user data on the planet. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/977559925680467968.html on that link you will find all the data Google has on you; all locations you have ever visited, your entire calendar, all your searches (even the ones you deleted), your contacts all your appointments name it it's all there.    \n\n Funny enough people are afraid and do not want governments to have their private data, however, they will give up the data to these Internet companies for the price of nothing. These companies use that data and a sophisticated dopamine trigger mechanism to create a system where users click on like buttons and share their data unknowingly to advertisers. YOU are the product.    \n\nRegulation is around the corner, however, we will not see it from the US yet as they do not have the will nor IQ to take on big tech giants.  Mark Zuckerberg masterfully used their own rules in his questioning with the senators a few weeks ago. For anyone who watched his testimony, notice how skilfully he took his time to answer their questions until each senator ran out of their allotted 5miniute they had to question him. In light of that, we can forget about the US government doing anything substantial as these two behemoths have lobbyists working round the clock to protect their interests.   \n\n  I think the battle lines will be drawn in Europe because these platforms have had more of a negative impact there than in the US i.e. weaponization of elections, low tax payments, anti-competitive behavior and negative effects on the mental health of its users due to the inbuilt dopamine mechanism on the platform.   We have started seeing it in GDPR the new data regulation act there will be more to come. THERE IS A PROBABILITY OF FINES AND SANCTIONS COMING AND SMART INVESTORS ARE BECOMING CAUTIOUS.\n\n\n\n       \n\n![Alphabet Inc - A (All Sessions)_20180505_21.43.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRLWwAqB7LjfMWd9f953y9aVL7epr8PcjuACQ5C8Tk9iL/Alphabet%20Inc%20-%20A%20(All%20Sessions)_20180505_21.43.png)\n\nIn the short-medium term, we can reach all-time highs but this is one market I would stay away from. If Google breaks the above trend line I will get short based on my thesis on government regulation. This I believe will be a turning point in the business cycle.\n\nIf you like the content check more free stuff out at https://www.patreon.com/realmd/posts\nOr show some support at ETH Wallet 0xbFd2F531CdF11552f08Bce9567ce4843d8A435dd \nas this allows me to find better market research to sistill down for you all.\n\n\n\nDisclosure\nThere is risk in trading markets. The Stoic Observer reports are based upon information and research gathered from various sources and believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information in this report is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service.  The information contained in this report is subject to change without notice. It should not be assumed RMD’s methods as presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. The indicators and strategies are provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investment(s).",
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      "body": "With the USD rallying I find it hard to see oil prices rising. Global growth is crawling oil will likely fall",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -369,8 +369,78 @@\n tations.\n+There is probably another leg down for wells fargo in the medium term.\n",
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      "body": "I agree with this analysis. The business cycle is slowing down and the dollar and the only thing that will keep equities running hot is a falling USD. Whenever we have global growth slowing down it tends to be bad news for equities. Emerging markets are vulnerable as well. But this analysis agrees with my fundamental approach. I would keep my eyes on inflation expectations.",
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      "body": "counterpoint: i just helped someone in their late 30's learn python and they've since built some pretty complicated things including some slack chatbots which get pretty heavy use. i think if you are suitably motivated you can learn coding at any age.",
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      "title": "Emerging Markets Are The Trade Of The Decade... But..",
      "body": "In Q3-Q4 2015 emerging markets bottomed out and started to rally as financial conditions tilted towards easing in Japan, Europe, and the US. Emerging markets benefited from low-interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) as we can see we have had a stunning rally since that time. Evidence from chart below implies that there is a strong correlation between easing financial conditions in the US VS emerging market performance. From early 2016 that divergence has driven the rally. We can see similar occurrences in 2000, 2004 and 2009\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeZW9i7XG4pmUB4MA7z3nTjSMJZn4WL5bM2MKA7QFpZKj/image.png)\n\n   Emerging markets have also seen a huge inflow into its bond market over this period as investors and institutions look to obtain a greater yield for their investments thanks to very accommodative central bank policies of low-interest rates and QE. Unfortunately, having pushed markets to these extremes, central banks now wish to begin reversing their easing policies .This reversal, historically has not and will not be a very smooth process, it will lead to higher volatility until tightening causes cracks in the economy forcing them to relent.  This, therefore, is not the time to add more risk to the table if you are a portfolio manager but rather is a time to raise cash and keep stops as tight as possible. If you are a short term trader well you dreams have come true volatility is risk and risk equals opportunity.\n       This increase in volatility is a trader’s best friend but the worst enemy for portfolio managers. So one of two ways a trader could play this theme is either finding opportunities to short Emerging markets and currencies vs. the USD or raise cash in anticipation of the fed relenting in its tightening efforts.\n\n\nThe Dollar\n\nThe Dollar is starting to break out vs. most of its trading partners as global growth has peaked and overseas cash stored by co-operations start to come back home creating dollar funding issues overseas. This is of import because as the dollar appreciates riskier assets tend to get dumped in favour of US assets. As QE nailed yields to the floor and bonds to the ceiling, emerging markets benefited from the impact of low yields due to the lower interest rates they had on their bonds. Now that the fed has reversed course and yields look to rise, emerging currencies are very vulnerable to further dollar appreciation. This market or EM currencies are not a particularly safe place to park your money in the medium term. Overall emerging markets have a fantastic story of which I am intending to write about in one of the monthly reports on ‘’ Behind The Curtain’’.  The issue is, it will take many whacks over time and these might be one of those whacks.\n\nEM currency crosses showing signs of life (USD/SGD from 2013 to present day).\n       \n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSAjV2Z1NMo9A9aWBhQqMm6SUExc7r3GM8aFKPgpTefYs/image.png)\n\n\nUSDTWD looks to have violated its price channel in a bullish manner\n\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYC1pD8AiRVoPu3XJmy3MfQArJqDp7564r7kzPwHRAgLV/image.png)\n\n\nThis phenomena isn’t just associated with emerging market currencies it is appearing across a lot of other US currency pairs.\n\nModern Portfolio Theory Risk\n      One thing that has driven returns over the last 20 years is the negative correlation between bonds and stocks. If you owned both in your portfolio the idea was that when the stock sold off bonds appreciated and vice versa and this acted as a hedge against any portfolio shocks and protected institutional portfolios from market corrections. What has happened with quantitative easing, however, is that risk assets had appreciated along with US treasury bonds whilst yields have been pushed down. Now that the fed reversing policy in the form of quantitative tightening plus raising rates we are seeing yields gradually coming up. \n    This increase in yields is risky both to the bond market and the equity market. This brings to question the negative correlation that has been around for the last 20 years between bonds and equities.  According to the bank of England this correlation is about 20 years old and if you look at the data over the last 200 years the correlation has mostly been positive! i.e bonds drop and stocks drop at the same time. In this devastating scenario, THERE IS NO HEDGE!!\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVthSPi15khZetYDSoSvmvDpXCwuys2hJivFqwnXXzwWD/image.png)\n\nChart showing positive correlation since 1759 up until the late 90s (Source BoE)\n\n\nSo what is a trader to do? I do not trade on the short-term basis but as a portfolio manager, it is critical to understand risks so as to adjust one's portfolio to preserve capital and avoid nights of insomnia. One recommendation I wrote about in February of this year was to short High Yield Corp Bonds. By shorting these bonds as yields climb higher it acts as a portfolio hedge in the event of any bond market tantrum.\n\n         Risks To This View\nInflation disappoints:  If inflation disappoints bond yields will be on a downward trajectory and any short position in the bond market will get unwound resulting in losses from the short positions. However, some analysts think that what will happen based on the data is that bond yields and inflation accelerates and then cool off repeatedly in a two steps forward one step backwards fashion and steadily climb upwards. This volatility should be a welcome gift for short-term traders who should benefit from trading around this volatility. So I would advise traders to put these assets on their watch lists i.e. TLT, TBT, US10yr yield, US30yr yield and inflation data. Watch for yields to keep rising over 3% back below and back above in a 2 steps forward 1 step back push pull dynamic that volatility should provide trading opportunities for the less risk-averse. We Could see yields go below 2 percent but not as low as the lows in 2016.\n\nWell Folks that is is for now if you like the content or have any questions drop a question in the comment box I will be glad to help. \nUntil next time keep your stops tight and your emotions steady and make sure you do your due diligence.\nMany Thanks\nRMD\n\n\n\nDisclosure\nThere is risk in trading markets.  REAL MACRO DYNAMICS reports are based upon information and research gathered from various sources and believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information in this report is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service.  The information contained in this report is subject to change without notice. It should not be assumed RMD’s methods as presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. The indicators and strategies are provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investment(s).",
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      "title": "Emerging Markets Are The Trade Of The Decade... But..",
      "body": "In Q3-Q4 2015 emerging markets bottomed out and started to rally as financial conditions tilted towards easing in Japan, Europe, and the US. Emerging markets benefited from low-interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) as we can see we have had a stunning rally since that time. Evidence from chart below implies that there is a strong correlation between easing financial conditions in the US VS emerging market performance. From early 2016 that divergence has driven the rally. We can see similar occurrences in 2000, 2004 and 2009.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeZW9i7XG4pmUB4MA7z3nTjSMJZn4WL5bM2MKA7QFpZKj/image.png)\n \n                                                                \n        Emerging markets have also seen a huge inflow into its bond market over this period as investors and institutions look to obtain a greater yield for their investments thanks to very accommodative central bank policies of low-interest rates and QE. Unfortunately, having pushed markets to these extremes, central banks now wish to begin reversing their easing policies. This reversal historically has not and will not be a very smooth process, it will lead to higher volatility until tightening causes cracks in the economy forcing them to relent.  This, therefore, is not the time to add more risk to the table if you are a portfolio manager but rather is a time to raise cash and keep stops as tight as possible. If you are a short-term trader well your dreams have come true volatility is risk and risk equals opportunity.\n\n       This increase in volatility is a trader’s best friend but the worst enemy for portfolio managers. So one of two ways a trader could play this theme is either finding opportunities to short Emerging markets and currencies vs. the USD or raise cash in anticipation of the fed relenting in its tightening efforts.\n                                                                                  \n                                                                                          The Dollar\n\n       The Dollar is starting to break out vs. most of its trading partners as global growth has peaked and overseas cash stored by co-operations start to come back home creating dollar funding issues overseas. This is of import because as the dollar appreciates riskier assets tend to get dumped in favor of US assets. As QE nailed yields to the floor and bonds to the ceiling, emerging markets benefited from the impact of low yields due to the lower interest rates they had on their bonds. Now that the fed has reversed course and yields look to rise, emerging currencies are very vulnerable to further dollar appreciation. This market or EM currencies are not a particularly safe place to park your money in the medium term. Overall emerging markets have a fantastic story of which I am intending to write about in one of the monthly reports on ‘’ The Stoic Obaserver’’.  The issue is, it will take many whacks over time and these might be one of those whacks.\nEM currency crosses showing signs of life (USD/SGD from 2013).\n \n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSAjV2Z1NMo9A9aWBhQqMm6SUExc7r3GM8aFKPgpTefYs/image.png)\n\n\n USDTWD looks to have violated its price channel in a bullish manner\n  \n     This phenomena isn’t just associated with emerging market currencies it is appearing across a lot of other US currency pairs.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYC1pD8AiRVoPu3XJmy3MfQArJqDp7564r7kzPwHRAgLV/image.png)\n\n\n\n                                                                             Modern Portfolio Theory Risk\n\n      One thing that has driven returns over the last 20 years is the negative correlation between bonds and stocks. If you owned both in your portfolio the idea was that when the stock sold off bonds appreciated and vice versa and this acted as a hedge against any portfolio shocks and protected institutional portfolios from market corrections. What has happened with quantitative easing, however, is that risk assets had appreciated along with US treasury bonds whilst yields have been pushed down. Now that the fed reversing policy in the form of quantitative tightening plus raising rates we are seeing yields gradually coming up. \n\n    This increase in yields is risky both to the bond market and the equity market. This brings to question the negative correlation that has been around for the last 20 years between bonds and equities.  According to the bank of England this correlation is about 20 years old and if you look at the data over the last 200 years the correlation has mostly been positive! i.e bonds drop and stocks drop at the same time. In this devastating scenario, THERE IS NO HEDGE!!\n\n ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVthSPi15khZetYDSoSvmvDpXCwuys2hJivFqwnXXzwWD/image.png)\n                           Chart showing positive correlation since 1759 up until the late 90s (Source BoE)\n\n         So what is a trader to do? I do not trade on the short-term basis but as a portfolio manager, it is critical to understand risks so as to adjust one's portfolio to preserve capital and avoid nights of insomnia. One recommendation I wrote about in February of this year was to short High Yield Corp Bonds. By shorting these bonds as yields climb higher it acts as a portfolio hedge in the event of any bond market tantrum.\n\n \t\t\t\t                                                          Risks To This View\n      Inflation disappoints:  If inflation disappoints bond yields will be on a downward trajectory and any short position in the bond market will get unwound resulting in losses from the short positions. However, some analysts think that what will happen based on the data is that bond yields and inflation accelerates and then cool off repeatedly in a two steps forward one step backwards fashion and steadily climb upwards. This volatility should be a welcome gift for short-term traders who should benefit from trading around this volatility. So I would advise traders to put these assets on their watch lists i.e. TLT, TBT, US10yr yield, US30yr yield and inflation data. Watch for yields to keep rising over 3% back below and back above in a 2 steps forward 1 step back push pull dynamic that volatility should provide trading opportunities for the less risk- averse.\n   \n     There we have it folks that is it for ‘’Behind The Curtain’’ for the Month of May tune in next week when we break down other weekly themes and investing ideas on the Stoic Observer. If you like this sort of content please show your support as this allows me to find better quality research to distil for you all. \n        \n\n                     Until next time keep your stops tight and your emotions steady and make sure you do your due diligence.\nMany Thanks\nRMD\n\nDisclosure\nThere is risk in trading markets.  REAL MACRO DYNAMICS reports are based upon information and research gathered from various sources and believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness. The information in this report is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service.  The information contained in this report is subject to change without notice. It should not be assumed RMD’s methods as presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. The indicators and strategies are provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investment(s).",
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