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      "body": "Though Comex metal \"delivery\" remains a sham and circle jerk where The Banks simply shuffle paper warehouse receipts and warrants, we thought the latest totals for September were noteworthy enough to bring them to your attention.\n\nAgain, we've written about this on countless occasions and this post is not meant to imply that \"the Comex is about to break\" or that \"there is a run on The Banks\". Instead, September saw the continuation of two trends of which you need to be aware. Comex \"deliveries\" are up dramatically in 2017 and JPM continues to stand down.\n\nFirst, take a look at the historical pattern of \"deliveries\" during the so-called \"delivery months\" of March, May, July, September and December. Below is a summary of the \"delivery\" activity for 2015:\n\n![Comexsilvdels2015.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZk32dgosPnMn8vJLomFPatrEte7DgsTNWqUNfUjvN2b5/Comexsilvdels2015.png)\n\nThe one way we've always quantified \"deliveries\" here at TFMR is to consider the total amount of stated \"deliveries\" at the end of each month versus the total number of contracts that had been left open and allegedly \"standing for delivery\" at the beginning of the process. For 2015, it looked like this:\n\nContract                Total Standing                Total \"Deliveries\"              Percentage\n\nDec14                                  3,950                                         2,975                                    75.3%\n\nMar15                                  3,142                                         2,583                                    82.2%\n\nMay15                                  3,371                                         2,840                                    84.2%\n\nJul15                                    2,699                                         3,637                                   134.8%\n\nSep15                                   2,198                                         1,555                                     70.7%\n\nDec15                                  4,078                                         3,939                                     96.6%\n\nAs you can see, the only outlier in 2015 was the month of July where nearly 1,000 additional contracts materialized requesting immediate \"delivery\". Other than that, it was a rather orderly process.\n\nNow, let's look at the summaries for 2016.\n\n![ComexSilvDels2016.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmP7G28ZmU1aCyzMhaDQKSYDZke34K6qroMzhJNQGvQ7Gi/ComexSilvDels2016.png)\n\nContract                Total Standing                Total \"Deliveries\"              Percentage\n\nMar16                                  3,804                                          1,356                                   35.6%         \n\nMay16                                  5,603                                          2,716                                   48.5%\n\nJul16                                    2,957                                           2,474                                  83.7%\n\nSep16                                   3,412                                           3,215                                   94.2%\n\nDec16                                   3,056                                          3,980                                 130.2%\n\nAgain, a rather mundane year of silver \"deliveries\" with one exception. This time, the month of December saw an \"oversubscription\". Where Jul15 had seen \"deliveries\" exceed standing by 938 contracts, Dec16 saw the same exception to the tune of 924 contracts. Other than that, it was another somewhat orderly year.\n\nSo let's move on to consider the \"delivery\" action in 2017 to see if anything unusual is taking place:\n\n![Screen Shot 2017-10-03 at 9.42.36 AM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmakeVYvyxrut8TCc8G2pT6GGcyCMHNmnax62wuUZSfsTa/Screen%20Shot%202017-10-03%20at%209.42.36%20AM.png)\n\nContract                Total Standing                Total \"Deliveries\"              Percentage\n\nMar17                                  7,299                                          3,872                                    53.1%\n\nMay17                                 3,360                                          4,657                                    138.6%\n\nJul17                                   2,423                                           3,287                                   135.7%\n\nSep17                                  4,103                                           6,575                                    160.2%       \n\n\n\nWell now. This is beginning to look a bit different, isn't it? Go back up and review the data for 2015 and 2016. Note that only one month in five ever shows a \"delivery\" total in excess of the amount of contracts still open before First Notice Day. And now, if we include last December, we've seen this occur in four of the past five months with the most recent \"delivery month\" of September seeing the largest percentage \"oversubscription\" yet at 160.2%\n\nAnd when we look at it in absolute terms, the \"deliveries\" for last month get even more interesting. Note that there were 4,103 contracts still open when the contract went off the board on August 30. At 5,000 ounces per contract, that's a total potential \"delivery\" obligation of 20,515,000 ounces of silver or about 638 metric tonnes. By the end of the month, the Comex had actually \"delivered\" 6,575 contracts for 32,875,000 ounces of silver or about 1023 metric tonnes.\n\nSo, what's the deal here? Why the sudden rush in 2017 to jump the queue and take immediate \"delivery\" instead of simply waiting until the next \"delivery month\"? Could it indicate wholesale physical tightness? Could it indicate a lack of trust amongst The Banks? Could it indicate absolutely nothing?\n\nWell, one thing we know for certain is that this anomaly is not being caused by the House or proprietary account of JPMorgan. Recall that in March we caught JPM blatantly exceeding that stated front-month position limits for Comex silver. We wrote about it at the time and even went so far as to file a formal complaint with the CFTC: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8243/march-comex-silver-deliveries\n\nBack in July, we next noticed that the House Account of JPMorgan had completely discontinued all \"delivery\" activity in Comex silver: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8451/specific-peculiarity\n\nWell guess what...that trend has continued through September. See below:\n\n![k.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSQ3WYdYuu7ScF536N13u8WvJyyCxRmVSeSzeLBHzdkiA/k.png)\n\nSo, at the end of the day, what do we make of all this? I guess that's up to you, the reader, to decide. No doubt \"deliveries\" in Comex silver have increased dramatically in 2017 but what is a \"delivery\" anyway? Is it actual metal or just an exchange of warehouse receipts between Banks, made to create the illusion of physical delivery for their paper derivative market? And does this increase in \"deliveries\" translate to physical demand and Comex stress or is it just emblematic of the general increase in total Comex silver open interest?\n\nThese are all interesting questions and, unfortunately, these deliberately-opaque \"markets\" make it impossible to state the answers with certainty. One thing is certain, however, and that is the notion that no institution built upon fraud, lies and deceit will stand indefinitely. Eventually, this current paper derivative pricing scheme will fail as true physical demand overwhelms The Banks' ability to manage their unallocated and fractional reserve system. For that day, we continue to prepare accordingly.\n\nTF",
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      "body": "Even though we've tried to warn and prepare, none of that makes the inevitable Spec wash-and-rinse any easier to watch.\n\nAt the end of the day, it just is what it is. The year 2017 has unfolded almost precisely as we initially forecast back in January with two steps back following every three steps higher. We had carried a target of new highs for 2017, near $1320, through this most recent rally that began on July 10. That we instead reached $1360 was just a bonus, I guess.\n\nFrom here and with Bank NET short positions hitting extremes over the past two weeks, we must expect further downside as Specs continue to be washed out and USDJPY/CDG reacts negatively to any hint of positive economic news that serves to reinforce Mother's hogwash of yesterday. As we discussed in yesterday's podcast, this period of frustration could very well last all the way through the next BLSBS two weeks from tomorrow. Once that's behind us...and hopefully haven't fallen too far from here...the stage will be set for the final three-steps-forward part of this year's pattern.\n\nSo, how far is \"not too far from here\"? Well, in CDG we've been mentioning the 50-day moving average as being the first target for The Banks. As of today, this level is $1291.30 and thus far we have a low in the Dec17 of $1292.06. See below:\n\n\n\nAnd why are The Banks targeting this level? As we've been discussing for the past three weeks or so, the three primary moving averages are all bullishly crossed. This configuration prompts the Spec HFTs to buy the dips and this generally promotes price strength. Therefore, the first key to unwinding the Spec longs and allowing The Banks to cover shorts is to break price down below the key short-term MA...the 50-day.\n\nFrom here, attempts will be made to take price all the way down toward the 100-day ($1274) and 200-day ($1252). The Banks likely won't be able to get there all at once due to that Spec buy-the-dip thing. However, they WILL try to get down there over the next two weeks.\n\n\n\nThe area around the 100-day should be supportive as $1280 looks like decent chart support, too. Maybe that's as far as they will be able to go? We'll see, I guess. Anything can happen over the next two weeks and maybe something completely unexpected will prevent The Banks from pulling this off. However, IF things simply play out in the usual orderly fashion, I expect a low to this cycle near $1250 or so and, from there, we can begin to rally into year end.\n\n\n\nTurning to Comex Digital Silver...Now that price is below BOTH the 200-week MA AND the 200-day MA, JPM has The Specs Longs firmly on the run. There's also a general sense of commodity DEflation again post-Mother and this is prompting selloffs in just about every industrial metal, too.\n\nThis now the SEVENTH TIME IN JUST THE PAST TWELVE MONTHS that the criminal JPM et al have allowed Spec long positions to be built, only to flush them back out by smashing price back below the 200-week MA. Incredible!\n\n\n\nSo now the only question that remains is: How far can they smash price down this time? I can see where some will expect new lows for 2017 and while that's certainly possible, I don't think that's likely. Instead...and consistent with what we've discussed all year...I think a sort of bowl or rounded bottom is forming on the chart.\n\nIf we go back further and look at the weekly chart, I think you'll be able to see what I mean. There's a reason we bottomed in early July near $15.50 and it's the same reason we'll bottom now somewhere between $16 and $16.50. This chart doesn't show you exactly what I mean but I think it gives you the general picture. After this current phase concludes, I still think we rally into year end with highs up near that $18.50 level...setting us to break out with a solid start to 2018.\n\n\n\nAnd that's where we are here on Thursday, September 21. I wish I had better news but, again, it is what it is. With The Banks still firmly in charge (and NOT on the run or any of that other BS: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8494/same-it-ever-was & https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8554/guard-against-banks), we all knew that this latest Spec rinse was coming and that it was only a matter of time. All we can do now is sit back and watch while we wait for the next entry point and rally. As of today, it looks like we'll need to give it about two weeks or so to play out. In the meantime, we'll try to have some fun and keep our sanity, perhaps drawing a small level of confidence from knowing how and why The Game is played by The Banks.\n\nTF\n\nwww.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe",
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      "body": "@@ -138,16 +138,71 @@\n e Buddy!\n+ I'm resteeming this so my peeps can have a look too ;)\n %0A%0AStack \n",
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      "author": "thedamus",
      "body": "Hiya Turd! I've been reading your shizzle for years out in the world. But i am super happy you have found #steemsilvergold -- Welcome Home Buddy!\n\nStack 'em up & Steem on!\n\nCheers! from @thedamus",
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