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      "body": "2017年12月22日晚，参加Blockchain Center Shanghai 举办的“Blockchain+Christmas”活动。\n\n活动行将结束之时，一位观众向分享嘉宾提了这样的一个问题：您觉得什么时候抄底比特币合适呢？\n\n嘉宾的回答，是我听过的最好版本。\n\n“这是非常好的问题，but I will never give you any investment advice。\n因为我不炒币，我只收割别人的错误。\n炒币，你能保证今年赢50W，500W，但是你能保证明、后年不赔1000W吗？\n我的基准是不炒币，不投机。人生不能有投机，把投机让给别人，你才能有机会收割他们的错误！\n我们只凭实力做事情，去学习，去了解他们的底层逻辑。而且这东西，以我们的智商完全是能学会的。”\n\n嘉宾回答完毕！\n\n从标题来看，文章可以结束了。\n但我的文章才开始！\n\n以下是正文，货很干！\n\n该嘉宾自称是位不走寻常路的大学老师！此次分享主题是《比特币分叉历史与展望---机遇还是挑战？》\n\n嘉宾一上来，抛出了这样的一段话：\n\n“今天大跌（12月22日，冬至割韭菜，包饺子），大部分持币人会心痛，但是放在手里没有抛掉，都只是浮动盈亏。\n\n你现在手里有一套房500W，和你有关系吗？就这一套，你卖吗？卖掉，再去买回来，要800W。\n\n持币的人，涨了无非就是晚上睡觉的时候，躺床上好过些。\n\n为什么你的好过是以这种方式呢？”\n\n以下是该嘉宾的分享要点加自己的小小思考：\n\n01 底层知识的重要性\n\n“去了解底层知识，接地气的去理解这些东西，让自己不至于觉得站在一个太浮夸的东西之上。那些当下觉得比较Fancy的东西（人工智能、区块链等），于你而言，可能会有点昙花一现的味道（注意：是对你而言，而不是对专业人士而言）。因为你不清楚它的原理，不理解它底层的逻辑，让你用它的原理去做点别的东西就不会了。”\n\n思考：不要轻视那些看似无聊的底层知识，书到用时方恨少！\n\n\n02  If you think you 're the smartest guy in this room, you 're in the wrong room.\n\n“要高阶参与，真正的往高层走，不能窝在一潭死水里。\n你总是在说的优质朋友圈，优质的社交圈，优质的东西不会自己来的，是需要自己争取的。\n如果你是这个房间里最聪明的人，那你呆错房间了。因为在这里，你没法提高了，你天天在被别人吸养分。\n那怎么办？找时间、找机会去一个你是最笨的房间里，去感触、去学习。”\n\n思考：物理空间，有时会对我们有所限制。当我们在一个空间里，时间呆长了就会形成自己的舒适圈。但可以通过互联网，去一个让自己觉得low逼的网络空间里，进行自我提高。\n\n比如参加一些社群，像007之类的，在那里总会有人把自己虐哭，逼着你向前。\n\n\n03 当大多数人都在做一件事情的时候，你必须缓一缓。\n\n因为世界上财富自由的人不可能是大多数，这是从来没有变过的。\n\n为什么说收割韭菜?因为韭菜多啊！收割只要一把刀就够了。不是要你们去收割别人，但是你能不能不要往韭菜那个方向发展呢？\n\n大多数人都在做一件事的时候，不是说他们都错了，而是说，你参与进去胜的几率不大。\n人生要做几率大的事情。什么地方几率大呢？人少的地方。人少的地方，那些还没有被开发的地方，但是有风险。需要你锲而不舍，有勇气、始终做与常人不一样的事情，长期训练，最起码三到五年。你才不会觉得：这样做是不是脸会红啊，别人是不是会这样看我？\n你爱说啥就说啥，我已经不管了。\n因为训练过，内心已经强大了，只要你觉得这是一条能够成功的路。”\n\n思考：尝试着去挣脱外界大多数人会给我们强加的KPI，走少数人会走的路，那才能更大几率的到达你想要去的地方。\n\n04  避险是刚需\n\n“巴菲特等各种投资家，一生在做什么事？两个字：避险。\n你看他投资了这个，风险好高啊！他是在A、B、C、D里面选择了一个风险最低的。只是他选择出来的选项是你认为风险最高的。\n你和他不在一个level上，你和他备选项也不是一样。怎么能得到同一个答案呢？\n\n他们在做避险，怎么样才能避险呢？\n\n现在币圈，token几千个。很多个可以让你财富自由，你说投哪个？\n\n有太多东西冲击我们的眼神，扰乱我们的视线：大佬说今天买这个、那里有内幕消息、这个群里有私募、明天某个币上某个平台…\n迷失在各种信息流中，就跟着，自己啥也不知道。\n\n所以，要避险，首先，要去避免去跟这些地方，不要被各种信息扰乱。\n第二，就是不要去做所谓的骗自己的价值投资，因为项目不在你的掌控之下，谁也不知道会发生啥？如果整个团队全灭呢，世界上就发生过足球队飞机逝世的事。\n\n思考：做好避险，做自己能掌控的事情，才能让自己始终留在牌桌上。\n\n\n05  收割别人的错误\n\n“不要去做不能掌控的事情，而做那些自己能掌控的。\n那什么是自己能掌控的呢？\n\n用统计学、概率学的知识，去收割别人的错误（注意不是收割韭菜）。\n\n在《摔跤吧，爸爸》电影中，有这样的一段：吉塔的爸和她说，每个回合有120秒，耐心等待，对方一定会犯错！\n\n不是说打不过，而是硬碰硬的时候，概率并不大。\nJust Wait！等待他们犯错，一定会有人犯错。\n\n在交易所、市场上里也一样。\n总会有人犯错，抓住别人的错误，你就赢了。\n那要怎么抓？\n\n当然要去学习这些底层知识，弄清楚交易过程中，到底是怎么回事？用最小的COST 去四两拨千斤。”\n\n思考：市场交易就是一个博弈过程，信息不对称处处存在，要别人更有耐心，用自身的学识去等待别人的错误，进而收割他们的错误。\n\n\n06处处最优，不是全局最优\n\n不用怕你今天亏了四毛，明天亏了八毛，不用怕你100次中亏了80次。因为赢得20次足够让你翻盘。\n\n统计的角度不是让你步步都赢！\n\n\n步步最优，不是全局最优！ \n\n人生不需要步步最优，只要优一次就够了。就那一次，足够了！\n\n\n07 .build the solid foundation\n\n许多时候，你不能前进是因为基础不够了。补起这个基础，不难，大概一个月就够了。\n\nBut sometimes you do not know where to start. \nBut sometimes you are lazy to start.\n\n因为没有人顶你一把，所以你20岁不会英语，30岁依旧还是不会。\n\n思考：学习过程中，需要找到一位能及时给你反馈的人，推着自己向前。\n\n\n08  独立思考的重要性\n\n币圈的信息洪流，独立思考的重要性就不言而喻了。太多无聊的信息会影响币价了。\n\n前几天乌克兰交易所liqui被黑客攻击，6万个BTC被盗的传闻，导致市场大跌。\n\n如果有独立思考的能力，简单的做个数据调查，会发现该交易所24小时的BTC交易量仅占全球交易总数的0.05%，而市场流通量为1675.5150万，按上面0.05%的占比类推，该交易所大概拥有8377.575个BTC，离6万个貌似有点远。\n\n独立思考能力，会避免许多无效的恐慌，进而更有机会去收割别人的错误。\n\n你看书或者听人说比特币总量上限为2100万个，但是你有动手算过怎么来的吗？\n\n\n对于这些简单到不行的知识点，都不去想着去推断怎么来的。那些用金钱买的币、参加的私募，也肯定大概率没有经过思考就掏腰包了。\n\n缺乏独立思考，对某件事物就不会有足够深刻的认知。认知变现的时代，没有自己的认知，不对自己认知进行升级，大概率会成为被收割的对象。\n\n那些没有经由自己独立思考就赚到的东西，可能很快就会被收割回去了，不大可能在手里长存。\n\n这次分享有太多值得去反思的地方，所以洋洋散散啰嗦了这么多，望见谅！",
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