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      "body": "<html> <p><em><strong>The US central bank left interest rates unchanged at its latest monetary policy meeting in the past week.</strong></em></p> <p>However, solid economic growth combined with rising inflation is likely to keep the Fed on track for another two hikes this year even as President Donald Trump has ramped up criticism of its push to raise rates.</p> <p>Additional quarter-point increases in September and December would bring the US central bank’s key interest rate into a target range of 2.25% to 2.50%, and mark the ninth increase in the tightening cycle which began in December 2015.</p> <p><br></p> <p>https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdLwJeXd8a9aGAPkPuz43VBSVJTdBy6qkVFhAft4U6z1M/image.png</p> <p><strong>In contrast, the ECB has yet to raise rates since the end of the global financial crisis.</strong></p> <p>At its June 14 policy meeting, it pledged to hold down interest rates until past next summer and indeed it is quite possible that ECB President Mario Draghi will not have overseen a rate-hike by the time his eight-year term in office comes to an end at the end of October next year.</p> <p>It has been a good year overall for the dollar, so far.</p> <p>The current rally is three months old and, despite some clouds over the US growth outlook, the gains may have a bit further to go.</p> <p>Since mid-April, the dollar has risen nearly 6% against a basket of currencies, hurting emerging markets and inflicting losses on speculators who had bet that the currency would extend its 10% in 2017.</p> <p><code>Their bets paid off in the first quarter when the dollar tanked nearly 4%.</code></p> <p>But since then, signs of faltering growth elsewhere in the globe and then the trade war have pushed capital towards the US.</p> <p>Many currency analysts remain convinced the dollar has had its day, noting US economic growth is likely to have peaked.</p> <p>But most of those polled by Reuters in its most recent currency poll see the dollar’s allure lasting another six months.</p> <p>In early 2018, encouraging European data fostered a view of a synchronised economic recovery that could lead to global interest-rate rises.</p> <p><br></p> <p><strong>But that view has dissipated.</strong></p> <p>Indeed, the Bank of England played down rate-rise expectations in April and the eventual hike last Thursday is unlikely to be followed up with more moves anytime soon.</p> <p>That doesn’t bode well for sterling, especially with the whole uncertainty of Brexit hanging over its head.</p> <p>Protectionism may also be playing a role in boosting the dollar.</p> <p>The US, whose exports are worth 12% of its GDP, looks less vulnerable to a trade war than, say, Germany, which has an export-GDP ratio of around 45%.</p> <p>Support for the dollar has also come from the emerging market capital exodus.</p> <p>That said, a strong dollar does not fit in with President Trump’s plans to boost US exports and cut US trade deficits with its trading partners. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a stronger euro versus the dollar on a six-to-12 month view.</p> </html>",
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      "body": "<html>https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSaajiBH5dAELMteSBjkpyv24Ye3w5c7JjhjKp3ND2Eri/image.png <p><strong>A new RAND Corporation paper finds that artificial intelligence has the potential to upend the foundations of nuclear deterrence by the year 2040.</strong></p> <p><br></p> <p>While AI-controlled doomsday machines are considered unlikely, the hazards of artificial instelligence for nuclear security lie instead in its potential to encourage humans to take potentially apocalyptic risks, according to the paper.</p> <p><br></p> <p>During the Cold War, the condition of mutual assured destruction maintained an uneasy peace between the superpowers by ensuring that any attack would be met by a devastating retaliation. Mutual assured destruction thereby encouraged strategic stability by reducing the incentives for either country to take actions that might escalate into a nuclear war.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The new RAND publication says that in coming decades, artificial intelligence has the potential to erode the condition of mutual assured destruction and undermine strategic stability. Improved sensor technologies could introduce the possibility that retaliatory forces such as submarine and mobile missiles could be targeted and destroyed.</p> <p>Nations may be tempted to pursue first-strike capabilities as a means of gaining bargaining leverage over their rivals even if they have no intention of carrying out an attack, researchers say. This undermines strategic stability because even if the state possessing these capabilities has no intention of using them, the adversary cannot be sure of that.</p> <p><br></p> <blockquote>The connection between nuclear war and artificial intelligence is not new, in fact the two have an intertwined history,' said Edward Geist, co-author on the paper and associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization. 'Much of the early development of AI was done in support of military efforts or with military objectives in mind.</blockquote> <p><br></p> <p>He said one example of such work was the Survivable Adaptive Planning Experiment in the 1980s that sought to use AI to translate reconnaissance data into nuclear targeting plans.</p> <p>Under fortuitous circumstances, artificial intelligence also could enhance strategic stability by improving accuracy in intelligence collection and analysis, according to the paper. While AI might increase the vulnerability of second-strike forces, improved analytics for monitoring and interpreting adversary actions could reduce miscalculation or misinterpretation that could lead to unintended escalation.</p> <p>Researchers say that given future improvements, it is possible that eventually AI systems will develop capabilities that, while fallible, would be less error-prone than their human alternatives and therefore be stabilizing in the long term.</p> <p><br></p> <p><em>Some experts fear that an increased reliance on artificial intelligence can lead to new types of catastrophic mistakes said Andrew Lohn co-author on the paper and associate engineer at RAND.&nbsp;</em></p> <blockquote>There may be pressure to use AI before it is technologically mature, or it may be susceptible to adversarial subversion. Therefore, maintaining strategic stability in coming decades may prove extremely difficult and all nuclear powers must participate in the cultivation of institutions to help limit nuclear risk.</blockquote> <p><br></p> <p>RAND researchers based their perspective on information collected during a series of workshops with experts in nuclear issues, government branches, AI research, AI policy and national security.</p> </html>",
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