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      "body": "比特币自诞生之日起就充满了争议。有人说它是天使，带来极度自由和安全；有人说它是恶魔，充分暴露了人性丑陋和贪婪。凭什么，一段代码短短几年之间就可以从不名一钱到价值上万美元，而且还是开源的？它会像荷兰郁金香事件一样发展成庞氏骗局，还是会最终迈向康庄大道，为人类社会进步立下不朽之功？抛开道德、正义、公理、监管和法律不谈，本文从货币、证券、商品、资产4个属性，深入分析影响比特币价格与价值的各种要素，力图建立一个数字货币价值发现模型。\n\n\n\n01 比特币 vs. 货币\n\n—\n\n比特币是货币吗？货币本质上是一个广为流通的交易媒介，是所有者之间关于交换权的契约或共识。根据维基百科的定义，比特币是一种加密货币和全球支付系统。无论各国政府是否认可，只要比特币作为一种交易媒介广泛存在，它就在事实上行使了货币职能。\n\n\n\n目前，比特币支付在全球各大洲多个国家都取得了进展，社交、游戏、旅游、电子商务等网站及各大线下零售商和服务公司纷纷开始接受比特币支付。这包括微软、Paypal、Overstock.com、维珍银河航空、Reeds珠宝、Intuit、戴尔电脑、Save the Children、瑞士卢恩大学、Zynga、特斯拉、expedia、新蛋等知名企业和非盈利机构。\n\n\n\n2015年2月，全球接受比特币支付商户超过10万。\n\n2016年5月，瑞士楚格镇议会决定将接受比特币支付公共服务。\n\n2017年1月，NHK报道日本接受比特币的在线商户比较去年增长了4.6倍。\n\n2017年5月，全球比特币ATM柜员机数量到达1167台，分布在58个国家。\n\n2017年12月，世界最大的网上黄金销售商Apmex接受比特币为支付手段。\n\n2018年1月，日本最大消费电子产品零售商山田电机开始进行比特币支付试点。\n\n2018年3月，根据Chainalysis计算，2017年消费者在商家服务上使用比特币的每月平均金额为1.920亿美元，而2013年仅为980万美元。\n\n\n\n线上线下商户接受比特币支付的事实表明，比特币离我们的日常生活越来越近。在数字世界和物理世界，比特币某种程度上已经扮演了世界货币的角色。\n\n\n\n作为一种货币存在，比特币价格就是相对主权货币的外汇汇率，如: 1BTC=11000 USD。那是什么决定了比特币和美元的兑换汇率呢？\n\n\n\n决定外汇汇率的因素有很多，包括购买力平价、外汇储备、通货膨胀、利率升降、经济增长率、国际收支、财政赤字等。与主权货币不同，比特币是去中心化的自治组织，不能简单地用传统汇率决定理论来评估比特币与美元的兑换比例。影响比特币短期汇率的因素更多来自外部环境，而不是比特币内部生态系统。具体表现为以下三点：\n\n\n\n第一是外汇储备。在全球十大比特币持有者中，美国政府排名第十，共持有174000枚比特币，到2017年底已经拍卖掉近30000个，剩余144000个。如果有更多政府把比特币纳入外汇储备，其价格势必走高。\n\n\n\n第二是通货膨胀。当世界经济处于滞涨状态，或各国货币超发成为常态，发行总量恒定为2100万的比特币天然抗通货膨胀，无疑对国际投资者会有巨大吸引力。\n\n\n\n第三是供需矛盾。只要比特币相比主权货币的强势态势得以保持，国际货币交易市场对比特币的需求就会持续升温，在比特币供给固定的情况下，比特币汇率会一路走高。\n\n\n\n总之，资金可以通过短期炒作影响外汇汇率，货币的长期价格却依赖于其内生价值。正如美元、日元、欧元、人民币等主权货币本身不具有价值，只有作为广为流通的交换媒介时才会产生价值。这种价值的最终表现是社会经济运行效率的提升。比特币同样如此。\n\n\n\n02 比特币 vs. 股票\n\n—\n\n\n\n作为OKEX、Bitfinex、Coinbase、火币、币安等数字货币交易所最活跃的交易品种，比特币BTC天然具有证券属性。最具可比性的证券产品是股票。股票是一种对股份公司拥有所有权的有价证券，投资者主要靠股息分红和未来股价上涨获利。决定股票长期价格的是企业盈利能力和未来业绩增速。通俗的说，一家企业20倍PE，即指投资该企业需要20年时间才可回收成本。比特币作为一个去中心化的数字货币，没有股东，没有管理层，没有经营机构，也没有专门的人或机构会给你分红。投资者唯一获利途径就是币价上涨。\n\n\n\n既然比特币自身没有盈利能力，按传统PE定价法对其估值显然行不通。但请注意，比特币是高度去中心化、加密、点对点、分布式、可信任的。虽然没有机构给你分红，比特币在特定持有者手中却能自生价值，产生效益。这种效益主要表现在去信任、点对点支付中节省下的中介费用，尤其是跨镜支付、黑市交易。比特币用于支付的周转次数越多、交易量越大，节省下的费用就越多，币息分红就越高。只不过这种分红表现为持币者比以前支付了更少交易费用。\n\n\n\n假设1：比特币一年支付交易量1000亿美元，含转移支付和结算支付，可节省中介费10亿美元，按21倍PE估值，市值210亿美元，单币价格1000美元(210亿/2100万)。\n\n假设2：市场认为未来比特币用于支付的交易额会成倍增长，年增速保持50%或更高，并按亚马逊230倍的PE给予估值，则市值2300亿美元，单币价格10952美元(2300亿/2100万)。\n\n\n\n因此，按证券评估法，比特币基础价值取决于四点: ① 多少人持有比特币; ②多少人用比特币于支付; ③每笔比特币平均支付金额大小；④每笔支付节省下多少中介费用。\n\n\n\n03 比特币 vs. 商品\n\n—\n\n\n\n商品指满足人们某种需要的，用于交换的劳动产品。比特币由矿工开采，通过数字货币交易所或场外市场进行交易，满足了人们储值投资或转移支付的需要，可被视为一种商品。由于比特币无发行机构，完全去中心化，传统市场竞争环境下卖方主导的大众商品定价策略应用于比特币会失效。作为商品，比特币价格主要关注两个维度：一成本，二市场需求。\n\n\n\n比特币生产成本主要指挖矿成本，包括矿机、电费、运营管理费用等。随着挖矿难度增加，算力要求越来越高，挖矿成本也随之提高。据2017年底矿场的相关数据，国内一个比特币的挖矿成本约2100美元，而目前比特币市场价格在11000美元左右。理论上，比特币价格一般不会低于挖矿成本，也就是说，当比特币价格低于挖矿成本时，大量买家涌入会推高其价格。与此相比较，国际上黄金开采成本平均1000美元/盎司，目前市场价格约1300美元。正常情况下，黄金很难跌到其生产成本以下。两者不同的是，比特币挖矿成本和市场价格波动非常大，而黄金相对比较稳定。\n\n\n\n市场经济条件下，成本并不是决定商品价格的最根本因素。供需才是。一件商品生产成本100美元，如果没有市场需求，即使价格10美元，也不会有人问津。相反，一件商品生产成本很低，只有0.01美元，但市场需求旺盛，供应严重不足，则价格也有可能飙升至1000美元。\n\n\n\n因此，从商品角度来看，供给和需求是决定比特币价格未来走势的两大基础要素。第一、市场需求是否持续旺盛？这种需求包括储值需求、投机需求和支付需求。其中，支付是比特币的价值基础。如果比特币作为一种点对点电子现金支付手段没有得到广为普及，或者有一种竞争币取而代之，从长期来看其价格必然回落，甚至可能归零。第二、供应总量是否保持不变？按照比特币白皮书设计规则，比特币总量2100万枚，出区块数每四年递减一半。这既使得挖矿成本持续上升，也会导致出货量逐年递减，间接助推比特币价格上涨。\n\n\n\n04 比特币 vs. 资产\n\n—\n\n\n\n资产一般指预期会带来经济利益、具有商业或交换价值的东西。考虑到比特币发行总量恒定，天然抗通货膨胀，很多人把比特币视为一种保值增值的工具。然而，作为资产，比特币没有一个可靠的IRR模型可用来测算未来收益。事实上，除了通过价格上涨赚取价差外，持有比特币本身并不会产生任何直接收益。而房地产（尤其是商业地产）价格就比较好评估，通过未来租金贴现即可测算出回报率和回报周期。就资产而言，比特币更接近古董、书法、字画等收藏品。\n\n\n\n收藏品主要在收藏圈流通，没有统一定价标准，价格一般通过拍卖行竞拍体现，和生产成本无关。基本原则是物以稀为贵。例如：2011年齐白石书画作品《松柏高立图•篆书四言联》从8800万起拍，最终以总价值4.255亿元成交。比特币则主要在币圈流通，由于总量固定，也有物以稀为贵的属性，其价格主要通过数字货币交易所买卖双方集合竞价确定。\n\n\n\n作为一种资产，收藏品价格主要取决于收藏圈的共识，不必要有什么实用价值，大家公认就好——哪怕只是一张纸，上面画了几根葱。比特币同样如此。其价格取决于币圈共识，大家都认为值这个价，就这个价，与生产成本无关。\n\n\n\n结语\n\n\n\n比特币核心价值取决于持币者有多少，有多少商家和个人接纳其作为一种支付媒介，在效率提升和费用降低方面能为用户带来多少便利。如果没有这层基石，比特币在任何价位都是沙上建塔，一推就倒。同理可以推及到市面上活跃或不活跃的其他数字货币，如：BCH、ETH、ETC、NEO、LTC、QTUM等。\n\n\n\n目前，全球已经有几十万家线上线下商户加入比特币支付阵营。未来比特币发展的最大护城河就是扩展这种全球性支付网络。如果比特币可以像Facebook一样，在全球拥有20亿用户，所有用户都用它来作为交易支付媒介，那么比特币就是一个名副其实的数字王国。\n\n\n\n假定货币发行总量与GDP持平，当与比特币支付相关的GDP达到美国2017年19万亿美元GDP水平的时候，比特币价格将超过90万美元（=19万亿/2100万）。\n\n\n\n但是，作为一种全球支付媒介，比特币在顶层机制设计层面存在先天性缺陷，导致出现价格波动太大、交易确认速度过慢、交易费用较高等一系列问题。2017年12月6日，软件应用市场Steam宣布不再接受比特币支付；今年1月24日，在线支付公司Stripe宣布对比特币支付的支持截止至4月底。二者放弃比特币的理由均指向价格波动、交易速度、交易费用。因此，比特币表面看来前景远大，实际却蕴藏极大风险。而比特币现金BCH、以太坊ETH、莱特币LTC等外部竞争币的出现，也对比特币地位构成强有力挑战。一旦比特币BTC全球支付场景土崩瓦解，剩下将是一地鸡毛。\n\n\n\n前车之鉴，后事之师。创立于2003年9月的MySpace曾经一时风头无两，稳居全球最大社交网站宝座。Facebook崛起后，逐渐没落，最终于2011年11月停止运营。未来如何，我们拭目以待。",
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