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      "body": "**During the first 6 months of 2018 Bitcoin (BTC) has made a definitive and massive slide down** from a January 5th high of $17,178USD to the current end-of-June low range of around $6,000 - $6,500, with a yearly low of $5,777 occurring on June 24th. In perspective, that means that since the all time high of $19,892 on Dec 17th 2017, the retracement to our current level equates to around 80% having been wiped off the market price of BTC in a short period of just six months (all referenced BTC prices taken from Coinbase).\nEven so, during those past six months there have been some dips and rebounds that have on occasion provided substantial gains in the vicinity of 100% as BTC wriggled its way down to arrive at our current yearly low levels in the $6,000 range. In fact, on two occasions BTC bounced back and forth from the low $6k range up to between $9.9k and $11.7k from February to May 2018 ($11.7k on Feb 20th and $9.9K on May 5th). Those who were able to effectively trade those dips and bounces would have done quite well, but it takes considerable skill and control to be able to make profits from a corrective and descending market pattern. Correspondingly, the alt-coin market has closely mirrored the downward pattern of Bitcoin, and despite some alt-coins doing relatively well, there have been some profit shattering losses that would make some investors wish they hadn’t tried to outperform BTC by chasing profits with alternative cryptocurrencies.\n\n**From Bear To Bust:**\nWhen the crypto market is riding high and everyone is relishing the joys of rampant growth, it’s all too easy to get swept up in the euphoric atmosphere which has a tendency to insulate us against being diligent and staying focused, although this is typically more of a threat to newcomers to the market,- especially those who have entered during a market upswing or bull run. Well versed and wisened investors however, ride bull runs and upswings on a more methodical basis which ensures that gains are maintained and losses are reduced to a minimum. Generally this comes from knowing when to take profits and exit, and where to place stop-loss orders to prevent bleeding-out in a scenario where a crypto coin or token takes a sudden plunge below a critical support level.\nConversely, when we encounter a falling market and experience the ensuing calamity and panic that goes with it, this can deliver some harsh lessons, even though such lessons can eventually become invaluable, provided that the experience doesn’t completely shatter us to the extent that a total exit of the cryptocurrency market seems like the only plausible option.\n\nMany people have travelled this road before and had to virtually start from scratch, but then came back to achieve real sustainable and profitable success. Diligence and perseverance is usually followed by success, so if you’re currently down on your original crypto investment, and your portfolio isn’t in the greatest of shape, then take heart in the fact that you can prevail and even propel yourself to new levels of profitability by learning from mistakes (yours and others), and by developing an investment strategy that is born of knowledge and research rather than simply following the herd or relying on dumb luck (more on this in another article soon to follow).\n![bitcoin-bottom-400.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRfSvirP1nW8ompseckExhf77X21QyQaM5XRqqbY8HK9M/bitcoin-bottom-400.jpg)\n**Is The Bottom In Yet?**\nAs we come to the end of a very much descending market at the end of June 2018 and rounding the corner into July, we’re now at the point where it’s common to hear comments such as “How much lower can Bitcoin go?” on a daily basis. That’s a fair question, but even so there’s still a lot of conjecture regarding the collective answers which vary from “We’re now at the bottom”, to “We’ve got lower to go yet”. When you consider that around $180 billion USD was wiped from the cryptocurrency total market cap over a six week period since mid-May to June 30th 2018, starting with a sudden drop from $436bn to $387bn in one day alone (May 10th/11th), and then gradually dropping further to around $255bn by June 30th 2018, it’s not surprising that BTC and ALTS (alt-coins) have taken such a dive.\nWhilst some people may argue that total market capitalization is not an accurate indicator of market sentiment, I would suggest that it is indeed relevant, and until such time as the total market cap begins to return to its previous stronger levels, then we’ll not likely be seeing any reversal of the current downward trend and sub $9-10k BTC range.\nThere’s been some visible speculation, including that from seasoned Bitcoin investors and industry specialists, who are saying that Bitcoin won’t fall below the production cost of 1 BTC which is said to be around $5,500USD (with some variance depending on the geo-location of mining operations and attendant costs of electricity and cooling), however, subscribing to that fundamental belief could be a mistake because it wouldn’t be the first time that a market value has fallen below production cost due to compounding factors that can create a spiraling downward inertia that appears to defy gravity and logic until some kind of critical mass is encountered and the cycle breaks to reveal a new wave of opportunity and market growth.\n\n**The Bull run – The Light At The End Of The Tunnel:**\nThe critical thing to remain clear about is the fact that BTC will eventually bounce back and start to retrace upward toward the previous market highs of around $20,000. Anyone who’s been involved in the crypto market for a sufficient amount of time will know that the recovery of BTC is a pending inevitability rather than something that can be indefinitely suppressed, or as some people (usually novices and armchair commenters with no skin in the game and zero knowledge of the real nature of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies) would suggest, is “The end of Bitcoin”. These are the same kind of naysayers who condemned Bitcoin to failure in 2014 after the Mt. Gox exchange collapse, and then complained that they missed the astonishing 2,000% bull run in 2017!  There is simply too much at stake and too many big players in the cryptocurrency market that would ever stand by and allow it to completely collapse. They are the integral players who are instrumental in the falling value of BTC (selling-off the declining peaks) so that they can swoop down and buy up the massive sell-offs and ride the wave back up again. That’s what hawks and bulls do,- they wait for (and orchestrate) huge market sell-offs and then buy them up to make massive gains once the market starts its climb back upward.\n![light-tunnel-bull2.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRmLvzgSM5gsoxTLZcPSWz6cFVCHwFot2Pfzi4dJ9cr5A/light-tunnel-bull2.jpg)\nLooking at the current bear market and the presently descending levels of BTC and ALTS in the correct perspective has to engender optimistic and enthusiastic expectation of some really worthwhile profit opportunities as the market rebounds and gains strength in due course. In the meantime, the waiting and hedging can be painful and frustrating, especially for those investors who are in the red and waiting for a recovery. The key to prevalence and weathering the storm so to speak is patience, and also having confidence that the market recovery is a definite eventuality rather than a stroke of luck that may or may not occur. Whilst it’s possible for even savvy investors to get caught in a market downturn, it’s usually the newer investors (ahem,.. “speculators”) that get caught out. Such baptisms of fire can be a good thing if the affected investor learns from his or her mistakes and actually spends some time learning about the market and makes some effort to study TA (Technical Analysis) so as to be better equipped to read the signs and patterns in the market that will allow more profitable trading with less losses in future.\n\nThere are presently some key support levels that need to be maintained to prevent further drops down to lower bracketed zones, and conversely, there are some major resistance levels that need to be broken through in order to shake off the current bear market status and then clearly enter the bull market that we’re all eagerly awaiting to take us through to post-$10k highs and then on toward the critical $15k to $20k range and beyond.\n\nOf course nobody has a crystal ball, and I’m not going to offer any concluding speculation here as to when the current bear market will end and turn around to make a solid run up toward the key resistance level of $9,700BTC (and then beyond that to retrace and challenge the previous all time highs of November and December of 2017), but there is at least some strong sentiment and anecdotal evidence for a continuation of current lows until the end of August 2018, followed by a strong recovery from September to December 2018. However, if we haven’t broken out of the current lower range by the end of August, then we could very well see the bear market continue until January 2018, after which it could be reasonable to expect to see some major growth by Q2 2019. This of course is not investment advice, and as always, do your own research and apply extreme diligence when investing and trading.",
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