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      "body": "Congratulations @rucksack! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@rucksack/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@rucksack) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=rucksack)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "title": "Past bubbles and how they relate to Bitcoin",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>Bitcoin is often referred to as a bubble, a modern day mania that is set to crash and burn. This argument is mostly fuelled by Bitcoins incredible propensity for going up and it’s ‘value’ not being easily defined. Along with their bubble statement follows a list of examples which include the Dot Com bubble of the 2000’s the financial crisis of 2008 and Tulip Mania?? The comparison between Bitcoin and the dot com bubble has the most credence but is not without it’s issues, the comparison with the financial crisis is just plain silly and the only other example they can come up with happened in the 1600’s.</p>\n<p>Below is a list of all the major economic bubbles this side of WWII (and tulip mania as people seem to think it’s important). I’ll be honest this piece is ever so slightly biased but reading into what caused some of the bubbles in this list highlights why we need decentralisation and an economic model that can’t be manipulated by greed.</p>\n<p><strong>Tulip Mania (1637)</strong> — <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania\">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania</a>Due to the lack of economic data gathered back then, there isn’t even clear information about why the prices became so high. From what i’ve been able to find it seems like people over exaggerated the demand for Tulips which then lead to massive speculation. How this refers to Bitcoin is with the pure speculation on future prices based on little more than gossip. There are obviously investors into BTC who are speculating on the future price, but a large majority of BTC holders have an interest in crypto as a store of value and hedge against FIAT inflation. I’d like to think we have developed a little as a species since this and understand the risk reward of such investments to mitigate any mania behaviour.</p>\n<p><strong>Poseidon Bubble (1970)</strong> — <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poseidon_bubble\">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poseidon_bubble</a>The Poseidon nickel bubble started after Poseidon NL mining company discovered a promising new nickel deposit. This coincided with a high demand for nickel due to the Vietnam War and lead to wide spread speculation based on future earnings. Once Poseidon actually started producing the nickel they realised the grade was lower than originally expected, resulting in higher extraction costs. This lead to a large correction for the price of nickel and after the new mine proved unprofitable the company was delisted in 1976.</p>\n<p><strong>Silver Thursday (1980)</strong> — <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday\">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday</a>Two brothers solely responsible for the rise and eventual fall of silver. Using their inherited Billions, the Hunt brothers calculated that inflation would result in silver becoming a safe haven as paper currency investments suffered a loss in value. They were ultimately proven wrong and facing a potential $1.7 Billion loss a consortium of US banks provided a $1.1 Billion bailout. Fast forward a few years and add in an SEC investigation and the two brothers eventually filed for bankruptcy.</p>\n<p><strong>Dot Com Bubble (2000</strong>) — <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble\">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble</a>The Dot Com bubble is often epitomised by Pets dot com. In 1999 Pets dot com spent $11.8 million on advertising with revenue of $619,000. This kind of spending is unsustainable and so it is far from surprising that it failed. Their big mistake was running before they could walk, envisioning a wider adoption of internet shopping before there was enough demand for such a service. No doubt investors saw how much money they were spending on advertising and made a decision based on potential future earnings.Pets dot com is just one example, but compare their story with Amazon, who started humbly and scaled with demand, rather than scaling on speculation of demand.The Dot Com bubble has similarities with Cryptocurrencies however, with many trying to speculate on who the winners will be. As with the Dot Com bubble, which saw the rise of eBay and Amazon. The technology brought huge change, it’s just a case of getting the picks right.</p>\n<p><strong>Uranium Bubble (2007) </strong>— <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_bubble_of_2007\">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_bubble_of_2007</a>After the largest undeveloped high-grade uranium mine was inadvertently flooded in 2006, uncertainty about the future supply of the element lead to a parabolic rise in price. This rise in price was followed by a dramatic increase in mining activity. The eternal laws of Supply and Demand kicked in leading to an eventual price equilibrium being achieved. This greed driven inflation of supply cannot happen with Bitcoin.</p>\n<p><strong>Financial &amp; Property Crisis (~2008) </strong>— <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/aug/07/credit-crunch-boom-bust-timeline\">https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/aug/07/credit-crunch-boom-bust-timeline</a>Arguably the most infamous on this list, the crisis spanned much of the western world resulting in a total of over $5 Trillion worth of bailouts spanning much of North America and Europe. Greece was bailed out twice! The catalyst was something called a CDO or Collateralised debt obligation which was essentially a package of sub-prime loads. Many banks and funds were leveraged against these CDO’s and in the case of Northern Rock they couldn’t gain enough liquidity to pay their ‘obligations’ which prompted the first run on a British bank in 150 years! Estimates are difficult to find but somewhere in the region of a million job and homes were lost as a result of the crisis.</p>\n<p>It’s hard not to get overly emotional about the negligence the financial institutions displayed, yet no one person or institution was ever put on trial for the misery that was caused. This was ultimately the catalyst for Bitcoin, a refuge from the financial world that would allow citizens to take back (at least some) control over their financial future.</p>\n<p>Too many of the examples in this list were the direct result of greed based on predictions. It’s this greed that we need to mitigate in Crypto. Unlike many I fear the institutional money moving into Bitcoin, I’m frightened by the ‘to the moon’ conversations that are all too prevalent in the space. Today Bitcoin is not a bubble, but in the future it may well become one. If we continue to be blinded by massive returns, and search for profit at all costs, we’ll pay the price.I’ll leave you with one thought: Institutions are here to benefit FROM Bitcoin, they are not here to benefit Bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Donate Eth: 0xdaBa2ec3527b51dba2BeF55cefc8fA7Aad77570f</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*BQttg4MNduVzLwfFX4gq8w.png\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\"/></p>\n<p>I could write a post every day saying that ‘Bitcoin Will Crash Tomorrow’, and as with the internet in ’01 and the stock market in ’08, eventually I may be right. But that doesn’t allow me to be hailed as the great foreseer, the person that ‘called the crash’. This is a problem that persists outside of crypto too, with many a youtube channel predicting all manner of catastrophic world events, and within the crypto space it seems almost daily i’m recommended a video that warns me the great crypto crash is just around the corner. All of this is meaningless and only succeeds in spreading FUD. In fact to accurately predict a crash you need just two things, what will cause it and most importantly when will it happen.</p>\n<p>Very few people actually saw the financial crisis coming in 2007/2008, and even less fully understand exactly what would cause it, and when. I don’t think there is a debate regarding whether Bitcoin or the crypto markets will see a large correction or bear movement, sparked by some single or number of events. In fact it’s very healthy for markets to go through these types of cycles, and can still result in a net win over a reasonable time frame. What I’m campaigning for is radio silence until someone has attained concrete evidence that things are about to go south.</p>\n<p>The most worrying aspect of the financial crisis was how such a small number of players could affect the lives of so many. Your average investor didn’t even know what a CDO was, let alone be invested into it, and yet the ripple affect was enormous. The issue with a large scale crash in Bitcoin is it’s individualistic nature, by which I mean, current BTC investment is spread among a wide selection of individuals or small firm investors and for different reasons, something I covered in <a href=\"https://medium.com/@rucksackmarketing/bitcoins-value-consensus-problem-2074748466b8\">Bitcoin’s Value Consensus Problem</a>. This for me gives the price more stability against a large corrective move, but also makes it more difficult to ascertain when and for what reason such a move may occur. Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater (the most successful hedge fund in the world) was able to predict the financial crisis by understanding who owed what to whom, and who would and wouldn’t be able to pay…and by what date. This currently is almost impossible to do for Bitcoin due to the decentralised nature of the investment into it.</p>\n<p>To illustrate the point of decentralised investment, just look at the China news. One of the worlds superpowers ‘BANS BITCOIN’ and the price only dropped for a few days before regaining it’s losses and hitting an all time high shortly after. In the past few days Vietnam imposed a fine for anyone caught using Bitcoin as a currency (a strange decision I may cover another day) and the price barely moved.</p>\n<p>Everyone seems so excited for institutional money to move into the crypto space, but with it comes greater perils of a large corrective move fuelled by the enormous funds available to the big banks. Sure we have some whales within crypto, but very few have the want or ability to move billions in and out of the market. This issue is mitigated with the addition of an ETF, but as outlined in <a href=\"https://alphaarchitect.com/2017/04/12/how-are-etfs-affecting-the-stock-market-is-there-a-dark-side-to-etfs/\">Is there a dark side to ETF’s</a> there becomes the potential for BTC holders to transfer their funds into the ETF or for new investors into the space, they can avoid a lot of the risks associated with buying and storing Bitcoin, as such they are more inclined to put their money into the ETF and not in Bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Again it all comes back to <a href=\"https://medium.com/@rucksackmarketing/defining-what-you-want-from-crypto-cc04efb76331\">what you want from crypto</a>. If you’re a HODLER then sit tight, if the price plummets to $1000 tomorrow but over the next 3 years bounces back to $10,000 then it’s all irrelevant. Don’t be dragged into the hype that the price will suddenly go one way or the other. Put in place your own due diligence process and stick to it. Map out your intentions and continue to correlate them with whats ACTUALLY happening and not what some over eager Youtuber is predicting. Even someone as respected as Tone Vays makes <a href=\"https://medium.com/@heyrhett/how-much-would-you-have-made-trading-the-opposite-of-tone-vayes-cryptoscam-videos-d29527cc336d\">bad predictions</a>.</p>\n<p>Donate Eth: 0xdaBa2ec3527b51dba2BeF55cefc8fA7Aad77570f</p>\n</html>",
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      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "author": "rucksack",
      "permlink": "bitcoin-vs-usd1-trillion-market-cap",
      "title": "Bitcoin vs $1 Trillion Market Cap",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>If Bitcoin reached a total market cap of $1 Trillion, a single coin would be worth $60,113! (Based on todays supply of 16.6 million coins). But how likely is this to happen? Today we do some very rough calculations in an attempt to establish if the golden 1 Trillion cap is achievable or just a dream.</p>\n<p>We’ll start with AON Canada who published a <a href=\"http://www.aon.ca/pubs/ic/2017/Global-Invested-Capital-Market-Canada-2016.pdf\">report</a> in 2016 of the total Global Invested Capital Market. Their report indicated that this figure is $155 Trillion, a figure which includes everything from equities to bonds, real estate, commodities, bank loans and more! Now i’m not deep enough in the financial world to evaluate if this figure is accurate or exactly what it does and doesn’t represent, but I think it is an interesting insight into how big the investment market is. Do note however that this figure does not include company stocks.</p>\n<p>Most ‘normal’ people don’t tend to invest more than 15% of their annual income, with a large proportion of people not wanted to invest in anything outside of a super safe ISA. This is based on my own personal experiences within the middle class of the United Kingdom. ‘Investing’ in general is seen as a very risky proposition which many either don’t understand or lack the ambition to learn. I say this to alleviate the argument posed by a lot of crypto-junkies who say things like</p>\n<blockquote><em>When Bitcoin reaches mass adoption the price will hit the moon!!</em></blockquote>\n<p>Their assumption is that ‘mass adoption’ means a significant percentage of the population. For comparison Bankrate carried out a survey on the American population (albeit with a tiny survey pool of just 1000 people) which resulted in a figure of 43% of the American population who invest in stocks.</p>\n<p>It seems concrete data is hard to find and I can only assume that a large portion of the population do invest in the markets but through a work place pension scheme and so when asked, wouldn’t say they ‘invest’ in the stock market. This leads to two factors when it comes to investment funds flowing into Bitcoin. 1) That institutional money becomes more prevalent, and 2) Out of the 43% that do invest, they start to see Bitcoin as a better alternative to more traditional options.</p>\n<p>I see both these scenarios playing out over the next 5 years, but this doesn’t factor in the role Altcoins will play, and subsequently how much of Bitcoin’s market cap they will start to steal away. But this post is specifically about Bitcoin, so we’ll leave the Altcoin discussion for another day.</p>\n<p><strong>Let’s get to some figures</strong></p>\n<p>Average income in the United States is $81,400, If we divide the total US population by 50% giving us a rough estimate of citizens who would likely invest in Crypto, and then take a very conservative estimate that those people invest 1% of their annual income into crypto, the US at a relatively high saturation rate could be responsible for $122 Billion of Bitcoin’s market cap.</p>\n<p>Figures are hard to pin down but based on exchange volume the US is second only to Japan with 29% and 53% of volume respectively, followed by Europe and South Korea. These 4 regions are responsible for 96% of Bitcoin’s exchange volume alone. For reference (very rough) average annual salary figures for the remaining 3 regions are as follows:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>Japan: ~$39,000 (Population: 127 Million)</li>\n  <li>Europe: ~$45,000 (Population: 743 Million)</li>\n  <li>South Korea: ~$45,000 (Population: 51 Million)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If we use the same 50% of the population investing 1% of their annual income into Bitcoin the total market cap (including the US) would be: <strong>$387.2 Billion</strong>. At todays coin supple of just over 16.6 million coins in circulation, that would result in an individual Bitcoin price in the region of <strong>$23,275</strong>.</p>\n<p>This obviously falls short of the $1 Trillion market cap and an individual coin price of $60,113 ($47,619 if we factor in BTC’s max supply of 21 Millions coins). But the question was can/will BTC reach a trillion dollar market cap? Theoretically it can, based on the AON figures, but will it? That’s going to require a greater proliferation of crypto knowledge throughout the world, not to mention increasing confidence that Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency isn’t going to go to zero.</p>\n<p>Ultimately my feeling is that whether it’s $23k or $60k a coin, we need patience. Over time we’ve seen a steady rise in the permeation of crypto to a wider subset of the worlds population. Every day that Bitcoin still hasn’t dropped to zero, is another step towards greater adoption. And the more adoption we see, the more Bitcoin will become a valid asset class for which individuals and institutions will look towards.</p>\n<p>Donate Eth: 0xdaBa2ec3527b51dba2BeF55cefc8fA7Aad77570f</p>\n</html>",
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      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "author": "rucksack",
      "permlink": "bitcoin-vs-illegal-transactions",
      "title": "Bitcoin vs Illegal Transactions",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>You hear this argument a lot among politicians, bankers and most ‘dinosaurs’ within the traditional monetary sector. Their argument is that Bitcoin needs to be regulated because of its use in the illegal drug and fire arms trade. Most notably marked by the growth and demise of <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road_%28marketplace%29\">SilkRoad</a>, an online marketplace which facilitated the trade of illicit substances and other criminal services, has lead to increasing amount of fear and the spread of misinformation about Bitcoin within the main stream media. Although this agenda hasn’t been push by news outlets in recent months, that doesn’t mean this proposed ‘problem’ isn’t being discussed within the Governments of the world.</p>\n<p>Just this week <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@palog/bernanke-eventually-governments-will-take-any-action-they-need-to-prevent-bitcoin\">Ben Bernake</a> spoke at the Ripple sponsored Swell event supporting payment processing blockchain solutions, but echoed his previous statements regarding Bitcoin’s anonymity and use in illicit transactions by saying</p>\n<blockquote><em>Eventually governments will take any action they need to prevent Bitcoin</em></blockquote>\n<p>I see all of this as media manipulation to ensure the powerful players in the financial world, retain that power against the most formidable opponent they have ever faced. To put this into perspective the US Dollar has been involved in the transaction of illicit drugs and services almost since it’s inception, and still remains the preferred currency of choice for drug cartels the world over. Pablo Escobar the Colombian ‘King of Cocaine’ was losing an estimated $2.1Bn a year because he couldn’t launder the money fast enough, leading to huge stock piles of Dollars being water damaged or eaten by rats (according to Roberto Escobar in his book “The Accountant’s Story: Inside the Violent World of the Medellin Cartel”).</p>\n<p>The problem goes even further with giant banking institutions such a <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/03/police-search-santanders-madrid-hq-in-money-laundering-inquiry-falciani-hsbc-geneva\">Santander</a> and HSBC being involved in an amazing catalogue of criminal behaviour. In July 2012 the US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs issued a <a href=\"https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/subcommittees/investigations/hearings/us-vulnerabilities-to-money-laundering-drugs-and-terrorist-financing-hsbc-case-history\">339 page report</a> which included accounts of the bank washing over $881m for the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel and allowing Saudi bank Al Rajhi to finance terrorist groups. Jack Blum an attorney and former Senate investor was quoted as saying</p>\n<blockquote><em>They violated every goddam law in the book. They took every imaginable form of illegal and illicit business.</em></blockquote>\n<p>Despite this no individual at or involved with HSBC was ever sentenced, instead the company paid a $1.6bn fine which will likely be offset by an increase in fees. Furthermore no main stream media outlet was crying out for tighter regulations around the Dollar and spreading fear about owning Dollars due to it’s links with illegal activity.</p>\n<p>Compare that to <a href=\"http://fortune.com/2015/12/23/kim-dotcom-megaupload/\">Kim Dotcom’s story</a>. Kim was the founder of a file sharing site called MegaUpload which gained worldwide attention in part by the availability of free movies and tv shows. Dotcom has been fighting extradition to the United States after the US raided his home and seized all his assets, despite Kim not owning any of the illegal material hosted on the site. The company regularly took down content when publishers requested, but not to the extent or the rate which that would appease the industry giants, leading to a litany of law suits.</p>\n<p>I think there is a huge distinction between creating a platform that facilitates the upload of legal or illegal content and knowingly launder money for the worlds largest cartel. It just so happened that Dotcom was an easier target than the banks, and one that isn’t deemed ‘too big to fail’. This is all a round about way of saying that Bitcoin and blockchain technology is a legitimate technology, and one that goes someway to giving power back to the people. I don’t advocate the blockchain’s use for illegal activity, but I don’t for a second believe any argument for stricter regulation based on a marginal use case.</p>\n<p>In the coming years we’re likely to have a real fight on our hands to preserve the essence of the blockchain’s decentralization, and for those who believe in the technology, it’s worth fighting for.</p>\n<p>Donate Eth: 0xdaBa2ec3527b51dba2BeF55cefc8fA7Aad77570f</p>\n</html>",
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  "trx_id": "6524bfd685fb2f853bd00bd66e66fab3b2a66415",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "blockchain",
      "author": "rucksack",
      "permlink": "should-u-trust-utrust",
      "title": "Should U trust, UTRUST?",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*rX4_-hmP9I0HG6dn1JFVFQ.png\" width=\"800\" height=\"428\"/></p>\n<p>I came across a new project the other day called UTRUST, it’s a payment solution akin to PayPal but with the added ability of being able to checkout in any cryptocurrency you desire. This sounds fantastic, a real workable solution to a problem that is likely to be very prominent in the coming years. Needless to say I was interested in the project and started digging in to find out more. After looking through their website and reading the white paper however, I have some issues!</p>\n<p>I’m going to dive a bit deeper into my thoughts and feelings, but I wanted to just preface this by saying I don’t have the answers to all the questions so would be very open to further discussion on this, and I don’t want to openly trash a promising looking project but I feel like I need to air my concerns.</p>\n<p><strong>Token Value</strong></p>\n<p>Normally when projects openly discuss the value of their own token or the potential investment opportunities of said token on their website, it throws up a red flag. From a professional/business stand point, dedicating any time or screen space to anything that isn’t pertinent to the project and how you’re going about solving a problem, is an issue for me. UTRUST don’t discuss this at any length on their website (but they do dedicate a full section of their white paper to it. (Page 19 — Value and Strategy).This section refers to the ‘burning’ of UTRUST tokens to increase it’s value, here’s a quote from the white paper:</p>\n<blockquote><em>The higher the volume of transactions in the UTRUST platform, the higher the potential market value of the token. Since a percentage of the transaction fee is removed from the pool in each market transaction, the more UTRUST platform is used (with any crypto), the further the price of UTRUST appreciates, a built-in adjustment that acts as our self-correcting mechanism</em></blockquote>\n<p>Followed by</p>\n<blockquote><em>This so called intrinsic deflationary engine makes UTRUST not only the safest platform, but a great utility token with growing value.</em></blockquote>\n<p>I can understand this approach as a way to entice more investors to the ICO, helping to possibly alleviate any worries about future value, or as a marketing tool to incentives investors or token holders to promote the platform as it’s within their best interest. But I’m a little concerned about it’s appearance in the white paper and it’s prominence on the website (including their informational video).</p>\n<blockquote><em>This dynamic adjustment of the fee burn rate will be managed by the UTRUST platform analytics engine with the goal of balancing token supply and demand while encouraging transaction growth.</em></blockquote>\n<p>This implies that by reducing the token supply, transactions on the platform will subsequently increase? If anything it may do the opposite, encouraging holders of the token to HODL in the hope of future returns. Having a fixed token supply is in and of itself deflationary when compared to FIAT currency, so by further deflating the supply (“at a rate no faster than 50 million a year to a minimum cap of 100 million”) you are adding additional value to a token that would perform its duties better if it wasn’t seen as a valuably asset. This is one of the issues with Bitcoin being used a currency, it’s seen as too much of a valuable asset to use as a medium of exchange.</p>\n<p>The way this system will work is UTRUST take a 1% fee from a transactions, then use a percentage of that fee to ‘buyback’ UTRUST tokens that will then be ‘burned’.I can’t help but feel this is added complication to a project that has a big enough hill to climb. It’s comparable to PayPal burning a percentage of their stock for each transaction. That’s great news for investors but doesn’t help the company grow or gain more users.</p>\n<p>Ultimately I’m not sure what position to take on this. On the one hand you have a much needed solution to a growing problem, and with an initial token price of $0.065 if you were to invest just $100 and UTRUST went on to gain just 5% of PayPal’s $80 Billion market cap, that would be a huge return on your investment. But on the other hand you have a business that in a <a href=\"https://medium.com/@UTRUST/why-should-utrust-688793834e48\">Medium post</a> about their project openly endorsed HODLING its ‘functional’ token?</p>\n<p>As always please share your thoughts on this, I want to believe in this project! Am I wrong?</p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "Ray Dalio vs Bitcoin",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>I recently discovered Ray Dalio, as of a month ago I’d never heard of him or his history. After watching a few interviews and reading Principles It’s impossible not to be impressed by his accomplishments. His company Bridgewater Associates is one of the most successful hedge funds in history, applying unique approaches to solving some of the most complex economic problems. Through there unique approach they were able to predict the financial crisis of 2008 and was one of only a few funds to profit during that time. Needless to say I’m onboard, trying to syphon as much knowledge as possible from one of the financial industries greatest minds.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>There is however an elephant in the room. Dalio has been very open about his stance on Bitcoin, and it isn’t positive.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The thing is, I don’t fully disagree with him. In actual fact I think it would be dangerous to discount his arguments, and/or his stance as a whole. I say this because the only real information we have regarding his decision making process is from a couple of short interviews. I think it is highly probable that internally at Bridgewater they have conducted real research into what the optimum BTC price should be, and right now the price is above that. And that’s an important distinction to make. When he calls Bitcoin a ‘bubble’, he’s not saying that BTC is worthless and blockchain technology isn’t important, but instead referring to the current market price of bitcoin and how it is currently over valued.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>This obviously doesn’t change my stance on crypto but it does pose the question, ‘at what point did YOU buy into Bitcoin and are you happy with that price?’. To me this is an important question you need to answer. For example, if you purchased BTC when one coin was worth $200 then a $5000 price bubble is irrelevant.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>I’m going to take a closer look at the arguments he has posed and consider the validity of them, but one thing that is worth noting is that he has been asked directly about Bitcoin and NOT cryptocurrencies or the blockchain technology.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Ray’s arguments</strong></p>\n<p>Ray’s first argument is Bitcoin isn’t a very good medium of exchange.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>This we can all agree on, due to the ageing technology leading to slow transaction times and limits, as well as rising transaction costs have led to a decline in Bitcoin being used a currency. I don’t see this as a massive problem when it comes to determining if the ‘bubble will burst’, you’d have to assume a large proportion of BTC investors consider it a medium of exchange and then universally discover it isn’t. I haven’t been able to find any conclusive data on how many of Bitcoin’s transactions are related to the exchange of good or services, my gut feeling is that it’s a significant amount.</p>\n<p>The second argument posed is that Bitcoin isn’t ‘A good store hold of value’</p>\n<p>Initially Dalio poses the argument that Gold reflects what FIAT currencies are doing, which helps to hedge against any movements in say the USD, but doesn’t specifically state how or why Bitcoin’s movements are not a hedge against both? We are yet to see Bitcoin in an inflationary environment, but it would surly be a better place to park your wealth in the event that your local currency is being devalued as part of an economic stimulus package. I’d like to hear more about this from Ray, as I don’t think he was able to fully explain his reasoning. And as previously mentioned in <a href=\"https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@rucksack/bitcoin-s-value-consensus-problem\">Bitcoin’s value consensus problem</a> there isn’t a clear indicator of why the BTC price is what it is.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Ray obviously has an innate ability to understand the economic machine on a macro level, and how each individual component interacts with each other. So I think you’re doing yourself a disservice to discount what he says immediately. That being said probably the biggest argument against Dalio’s position is that Bitcoin has the ability to span a store of value, medium of exchange and an investment vehicle at the same time. So although his arguments may fit one of these abilities, they don’t fit them all.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Donate Eth: 0xdaBa2ec3527b51dba2BeF55cefc8fA7Aad77570f</p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "Bitcoin’s value consensus problem",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>Things got heated on Twitter the other day between <a href=\"https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite\">Charlie Lee</a> and <a href=\"https://twitter.com/rogerkver\">Roger Ver</a> over the proposed forks that BTC may face in the coming months. Arguments aside, one thing struck me in the comments to one of <a href=\"https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/914553454575501317\">Charlie’s posts</a> referring to what gives Bitcoin it’s value. The answers spanned such a wide range of reasons it sent me on a 3 day mental quest to try and unravel what i’d read.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Here are a few highlight reasons people gave:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>Resilience to central control</li>\n  <li>Supply and demand</li>\n  <li>P2P transactions&nbsp;</li>\n  <li>Previous investment success&nbsp;</li>\n  <li>Lack of debt association (Compared to FIAT)</li>\n  <li>Utility in the marketplace&nbsp;</li>\n  <li>What it represents&nbsp;</li>\n  <li>Stability against unstable FIAT (aka Venezuela)&nbsp;</li>\n  <li>Bitcoin ‘Brand’</li>\n  <li>Energy cost of mining</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The main reason this left me pondering Bitcoin’s value is in relation to the wider media’s assumption that Bitcoin is a bubble. Almost daily you’ll find a comparison between crypto and tulip mania or the dot com bubble.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>But with Bitcoin having so many use cases and/or so many perceived reasons of value, my opinion is that it will be more difficult to accurately establish if it is indeed a bubble. An asset bubble bursts when the perceived value meets the realisation of it’s true value. This can be applied to Tulip mania or the dot com boom, speculation leads to an increase in price above what the asset is actually worth. The problem with Bitcoin is it’s hard to establish a clear consensus of its true worth. What gives Bitcoin it’s value to someone in Venezuela is different to someone in the United States.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Let’s say each of the 10 reasons highlighted above each represents 1/10th of Bitcoin’s value. If the ‘bubble bursts’ for those who invested to avoid government intervention, due to implementation of regulation, the price would only fall 10%. After all, government intervention in the US wouldn’t stop the use case for citizens of Venezuela.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>This is obviously a simplified example but it goes some way to explain my position on this. The fact there isn’t a clear consensus regarding the value, means there can’t be a clear consensus for when that value is too high. For instance, the price of gold is far above it’s real world use cases. When you strip away the <a href=\"http://www.rsc.org/periodic-table/element/79/gold\">aesthetic uses of Gold</a>, you’re left with heat shields, electrical connectors and gold teeth. So why does the Bank of England store over <a href=\"http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gold-price-bars-hidden-in-secret-vaults-beneath-the-bank-of-england-worth-248bn-a6994276.html\">$240bn</a> worth of heat shield material and no one is calling it a bubble? And before you start talking about a post apocalyptic scenario, the only valued assets will be water and food.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>I agree that there exists investment in crypto that is pure speculation based on nothing but hype, so the real question should be “how much of the market cap does that represent?”. Until we can establish a consensus on that, it’s impossible to categorically state we’re in a bubble.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If Gold is the asset of the physical world, then Bitcoin (or another cryptocurrency) is the asset of the digital world. And as I mentioned in my post Can Bitcoin Die? as long as the digital world continues to preside over the way we live, there will always be a value in cryptocurrencies.</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "Absolutely right mate. Do you understand about programming? Ar you starting to learn about it? Thanks for sharing. Cheers!",
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      "title": "Defining what you want from Crypto",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>Like many endeavours in life, it’s important to define exactly what you expect to achieve or attain by pursuing it, and crypto is no different. By fully exploring your intentions you’ll have a better metric by which to evaluate your success or failure. You may already have an inclination of your intentions but they exist almost in your subconscious, never really being defined, definitively. This is what’s important, to physically write them down, to physically verbalise your dreams, hopes or ambitions.</p>\n<p>For me, crypto and specifically blockchain technology epitomises revolution so my number one goal is to be on the right side of history. That results in me utilising my time to best understand how the blockchain will disrupt industries and subsequently position myself and my business correctly, if that occurs.</p>\n<p>Now your goals and ambitions may differ to mine, but by clearly defining what you want you can be more focused. And by being more focused you can avoid wasting time on activities that don’t align with your goals.</p>\n<p>When it comes to ‘trading’ I solely focus on macro analysis and positions. No attempts to scalp an ICO or day trade my way to a Lambo, but instead to build wealth by learning a technology that most (as of 2017) are yet to understand. Having positions in the market comes as a net result of understanding the technology, and essentially placing bets on who I think will be the leaders in the future.</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "Thanks for sharing. Good Job! Followed. Pls follow me...",
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      "title": "Better trading through negative affirmation",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>I prefer to trade crypto through macro/fundamental analysis as apposed to pure technical analysis (TA) on micro time frames. Unlike TA your indicators to buy and sell come from slightly more ambiguous sources and require a greater level of information processing to determine the correct decision.</p>\n<p>Before we go further, I don’t think fundamental is any better than technical analysis but i’m a little more comfortable with it. I also think the best possible strategy is to consider all types of analysis.</p>\n<p>When it comes to fundamental analysis you’re job is to collate various forms of information to arrive at a valid conclusion. That ‘valid’ conclusion however, for most traders is arrived at by a single entity. Your abilities and decision making process are solely responsible for your wins and losses. This is where negative affirmation comes in, the tl;dr of it is:</p>\n<p><strong>Not to ask, how do I know i’m right, but instead to ask how do I know I’m not wrong.</strong></p>\n<p>These may sound like one and the same, but let me explain it another way. It’s important to search out information that opposes your viewpoint, instead of affirms it. By consuming articles, interviews and other data that affirms what you currently believe, you’re not stress testing your view. After all, you already believe X scenario will happen based on previous assumptions.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>For example, lets say you’re interested in an upcoming ICO. You’ve read the white paper, examined the dev team and the proposed road map looks feasible. After this you conclude that you believe this coin has a viable use case and in 2-3 years the company will have a higher valuation than it will at the time of launch.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>There are many factors that go into evaluating an investment opportunity such as an ICO, so it’s hard to list them all. For arguments sake lets say after conducting the initial research you look into market sentiment, business opposition and the opinions of several figures you respect. In this situation most investors search for and only acknowledge the opinions that affirms their current beliefs, this is called confirmation bias. This process is therapeutic and helps to bolster your ego, but until the criteria has been met (in this example, taking a profit after 2/3 years) you should remain humble about your position.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>This is where negative affirmation comes in, to actively search for and consume any data or opinion that doesn’t align with your own to develop a better understanding of the situation. The important part in this is to categories these opposing opinions into three categories.&nbsp;</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>
Those that: Affect my view
</li>\n  <li>Those that: Don’t affect my view</li>\n  <li>And those that: I am unsure whether they affect my view.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>A 6 word reply to a reddit thread that opposes your opinion can easily be placed in the ‘doesn’t affect my view’ category, where as a well researched and constructed article may be placed into the ‘affects my view’ category. Once you have conducted sufficient research you can then evaluate each column and asses whether or not your initial viewpoint should be adjusted.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>To answer the questions of, Will XYZ token be worth more or less than I paid after X months, requires a great deal of knowledge, understanding and in the end may still result in you playing a 50/50 sum game. After all, no one has the ability to see into the future, but you do have the ability to conduct thorough research and decide whether or not you want to bet against the consensus. The important thing is not to fall for confirmation bias, and push against your desire to be affirmed. We all want to know we were right, but it’s those that are pragmatic about stress testing their opinions that really win.&nbsp;</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"https://image.ibb.co/ft9jyk/drawing.png\" width=\"851\" height=\"348\"/></p>\n<p>Obviously this a kinda wild speculation but I'm yet to see anyone mention the apparent 'pattern' that Bitcoin has been on for the past 14 months. Looking at the 1D TF we have these cycles of increase and decrease. When the BTC price started to fall in September (although earlier than I'd expected) I wasn't completely surprised. The previous drop that resulted in a 36 day down trend (or consolidation phase) came after the price closed in on the $3000 dollar mark. This latest shift to the down side came after the price nudged $5000.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>My prediction is that somewhere around the end of Oct/early Nov the current consolidation phase will end and we'll see the price run above $5000.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>After that It's crazy wild speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a drop if the price ever pushed up towards $10,000 per Bitcoin. I think $10,000 is possible but we'd need to see a wider adoption of BTC, especially as a medium of exchange and not just a value store/speculation market. At which point i'd be willing to hedge that Ethereum starts to steal a larger percentage of the market cap away from BTC.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Would love to hear your thoughts, especially in regards to using TA to attempt a prediction of such a long time frame.</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "<html>\n<p>I’ve been thinking a lot about this question, the question of whether or not Bitcoin can die. And in a broader sense, can Cryptocurrencies die? Now that pandora’s box has been opened, can it be shut?&nbsp;</p>\n<p>When I first starting thinking about this one thing struck me.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>We live in a digital world. There have been many reports that on average a person in a developed country spends upwards of <a href=\"http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/30/health/americans-screen-time-nielsen/index.html\">8-10 hours a day</a> using some form of technology. Be it while working or during leisure time. Our mobile phone, laptops &amp; tablets have become an integral part of how we live our lives.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>And for this reason it’s entirely conceivable that we need a digital currency to better suit how our lives have developed. The reason physical currency persisted for so long was because transactions were, for the most part a physical interaction. But hold on, how is a cryptocurrency better than a digital manifestation of a <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money\">FIAT</a> currency? The largest issue with a digital FIAT currency is exchange rates. Consider a simple transaction where I, living in the United Kingdom purchase an album from a Ukrainian rock band. The payment is processed very easily but it’s the exchange rates between the two currencies that start to dissolve the efficiency. A cryptocurrency can exist in a world where a universal world currency simply can’t.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Now we have to pay tribute to the blockchain here, as without the advancements in cryptography and processing power, a digital (crypto) currency couldn’t work quite so successfully. The blockchain and it’s accountability is what allows for such a borderless idea to survive. The blockchain doesn’t have to consider international politics and is incognisant of language barriers. So although the idea for a digital medium of exchange isn’t a new idea, it’s the cumulation of technology and buying habits that has turned a hypothetical, into a reality.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Bitcoin specifically isn’t currently a very good medium of exchange. This is mostly due to it’s volatile nature. You see a currency exists to elevate the <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coincidence_of_wants\">double coincidence of want</a>s, allowing an economy more flexibility over a barter system. Ignoring all the additional layers of complexity we’ve created around our financial system, the purpose of <em>money</em> is to allow the freedom for products and services to be exchanged easily. With Bitcoin however, the amount required to purchase a cup of coffee one day, could buy you ten the day after. This has lead to Bitcoin being used as a store of value instead of a medium of exchange. The comparison between Bitcoin and Gold is a very interesting topic, and one for another day.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>There are however other ‘alt’ coins available, many of which aim to avoid the pitfalls Bitcoin has found itself in and become a fully fledged global currency. One of the biggest barriers for Bitcoin is the very nature of the code it’s built on. Currently the Bitcoin network can process around 4-5 transactions a second, compare that to Visa who can process on average <a href=\"http://www.altcointoday.com/bitcoin-ethereum-vs-visa-paypal-transactions-per-second/\">1667 per second</a>. Many of the alt coins have this specific target in mind and I believe the blockchain technology will quickly develop to surpass the capabilities of Visa or PayPal. Despite the current shortfalls in processing speeds, the blockchain does have a huge benefit when it comes to transaction fees. Western Union is the largest remittance transfer in the world, processing $500 billion each year. But with a transfer of $900 you’ll be stung with a $76 fee! The same transfer on the blockchain would be a fraction of that amount. And with a large portion of Western Union remittances coming from some of the poorest countries in the world, I see it as a moral obligation to offer an alternative.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>So could Bitcoin die? in short, yes. But the real questions is can Cryptocurrencies die? In my opinion, no. As long as the digital landscape continues to pervade over the way we live our lives, so will a medium of exchange (or store of value) that reflects that. Whether it’s Proof of Work or Proof of Stake, there is real value being generated through the use of technology. Bitcoin is just a small part of a much bigger picture. As of right now it may preside over the alternatives but it must continue to develop and meet the needs of it’s users to stay there.&nbsp;</p>\n</html>",
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