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      "body": "Congratulations @robertallen! You have received a personal award!\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@robertallen/birthday1.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@robertallen)  Happy Birthday - 1 Year on Steemit Happy Birthday - 1 Year on Steemit\nClick on the badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.\n\nFor more information about this award, click [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-update-8-happy-birthday)\n> By upvoting this notification, you can help all Steemit users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "title": "Choose Your Money Wisely",
      "body": "<html>\n<h1>Old Money</h1>\n<p>Unless you have been living under a rock you know that the modern financial system is rotten. Unfortunately, few understand why this is so. Rather than addressing the many externalities and byproducts of this system, I think it is prudent to look to the core and, as the saying goes, “follow the money.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*XikJk_0PrtuWV9CrWiEIyA.jpeg\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\"/></p>\n<p>For as far back as anyone living can remember, governments around the world have enjoyed monopoly control over the issuance of money. This arrangement has served the political and banking classes by giving them the exclusive right to manipulate interest rates and legally counterfeit the nation’s currency. In the United States, the Federal Reserve and its legion of apologists wrap these realities in saccharine-sounding euphemisms such as “quantitative easing” and “discount window.” They also explain in excruciating monotone that price deflation (prices dropping) is bad for you. You see, it is good to pay more for the things you need to survive. They dress in starched shirts and many of them look like your grandparents, and they are all living in the past. They have given us a financial system built on debt and theft and it is up to us to find a better way.</p>\n<h1><strong>The Dawning of a New Age</strong></h1>\n<p>With the release of his <a href=\"https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf\">white paper</a> in 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto sparked a money revolution with Bitcoin. For the first time in our lives, we have real choice when it comes to money. You can hold on to government fiat money and watch as your purchasing power erodes year-after-year. You can store the value of your labor in a bank offering no interest (or even negative interest in some places). You can hope that bail-ins do not make it to your country. Or you can “be your own bank” and use decentralized, peer-to-peer, cryptographically secured, open-source money built for the 21st century. The smart choice seems obvious to me.But can Bitcoin really succeed? <a href=\"https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats\">Didn’t it die</a>? In spite of the droves of unimaginative types waiting with nails in hand next to an empty coffin, Bitcoin is still very much alive. Even more ironically, if Bitcoin happened to be a corporation in the traditional sense of the word, it would be lauded as a massive success and would doubtless be a darling of the Venture Capital world. With a market capitalization of around $6.3 billion, Bitcoin would have come in at #19 in the <a href=\"http://graphics.wsj.com/billion-dollar-club/\">2015 list of Billion Dollar Startups compiled by the WSJ</a>, just above Lyft. Where are the droves of writers eulogizing the end of Lyft?Obituaries aside, Bitcoin adoption metrics continue to move steadily upwards (<a href=\"https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=2year&amp;showDataPoints=false&amp;daysAverageString=1&amp;show_header=true&amp;scale=0&amp;address=\">transactions per day</a>, <a href=\"https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=2year&amp;showDataPoints=false&amp;daysAverageString=1&amp;show_header=true&amp;scale=0&amp;address=\">addresses used</a>). In spite of the contention surrounding the <a href=\"http://gavinandresen.ninja/One-Dollar-Lulz\">block size</a>, the big story is that Bitcoin is succeeding and needs to scale up to accommodate the additional demand. Thanks to first-mover advantage and the power of network effect, Bitcoin will likely continue to dominate the cryptocurrency scene well into the future.However, the future is uncertain and I do not know that Bitcoin will succeed in its quest to obsolesce the current financial paradigm. Sometimes the first version of a new technology ends up supplanted by a derivation. How many people would have bet on Facebook unseating MySpace?</p>\n<p>With this sobering thought in mind, let us remember the wisdom of diversification. Taking 10–20% of your Bitcoin holdings and moving into alternative cryptocurrencies can help insulate you from some of the risk of holding Bitcoin and may also provide additional upside. It seems likely that we will see the <a href=\"https://mises.org/library/free-market-monetary-system\">free-market in currencies</a> develop such that we can observe a <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law\">power-law </a>distribution where 80% of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will be found in the top 20% most used currencies.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Power-Law Graph</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/600/1*ijiaYV3jPl51vkOSV4tdRg.png\" width=\"600\" height=\"312\"/></p>\n<p>Because of this likelihood, I would caution against speculating on new or extremely small market cap cryptocurrencies unless you have a very strong reason to do so. Competition is a good thing for any market and so, because I love Bitcoin, I welcome competition. Bitcoin promises to act as a superior store of value (thanks to its finite supply, capped at 21 million) and a fast and nearly frictionless network for the exchange of that value. If Bitcoin developers stumble in scaling the network (and many in the community believe they already have), it is up to the users of the network to voice their concerns, support alternate versions of the Bitcoin software, and if their needs are still not being met, look for alternative currencies. Thankfully, cryptocurrency users have a choice.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://litecoin.com/\">Litecoin</a>, a fork of the Bitcoin code with two modifications (a block time of 2.5 minutes compared to 10 minutes for Bitcoin, and a currency cap of 84 million) has been imagined as the silver to Bitcoin’s gold. Consistently ranking in the <a href=\"http://coincap.io/\">top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization</a>, Litecoin has existed quietly for the most part in the shadow of Bitcoin but it seems to have staying power. Although development work is tepid at the moment, the <a href=\"https://github.com/litecoin-project/litecoin\">Litecoin GitHub repository</a> has 276 contributors and close to 8,000 commits.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://www.ethereum.org/\">Ethereum</a>, a blockchain based network specializing in distributed computation has recently rocketed to #2 in market capitalization (<a href=\"http://coincap.io/\">currently sitting at $1 billion</a>). With a constant annual rate of inflation, Ethereum is approaching the currency issuance question from a different perspective. Ethereum is effectively subsidizing their network nodes through this constant inflation model. While I prefer the hard limit approach for currency issuance, since the rules are set from the start, the <a href=\"https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/04/10/the-issuance-model-in-ethereum/\">Ethereum approach may work well and will be disinflationary</a> (while not necessarily deflationary). Ethereum has a very active community of developers with <a href=\"https://github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum\">several implementations</a> of the Ethereum protocol.</p>\n<p>I for one am thankful that the future of money looks increasingly diverse and that the interests of developers must align with those of the users of a cryptocurrency in order for that currency to succeed. To this end, I am happy to announce the release of my company’s second product, a portfolio rebalancing algorithm called “TIDE.” Users can build a diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies with current support for Bitcoin (BTC), Litecoin (LTC), and Ethereum (ETH). TIDE also supports several fiat currencies including USD, CAD, EUR and GBP. The algorithm continuously monitors and rebalances user accounts to maintain their desired allocations. For more about the algorithm and some sample backtested portfolios please visit our <a href=\"https://coincube.io/tide\">website</a>.</p>\n<p>Written by: Robert William Allen, Founder &amp; CEO of <a href=\"https://coincube.io/\">COINCUBE</a></p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "Bitcoin Volatility and Speculation",
      "body": "<h1>Volatility as a bug</h1>\nDue to its relatively small market capitalization and immature infrastructure, price discovery in the Bitcoin network is inefficient and volatile. From an end-user perspective, volatility is an impediment to use. Although it is possible for merchants who accept bitcoin to use a third-party payment processor (such as BitPay or Coinbase) in order to convert their bitcoin into a local currency, this is an imperfect solution. It seems likely that the bearish price performance of bitcoin in 2014 can be at least partially attributed to selling pressure from merchants. It would be much better for the ecosystem if merchants began to use bitcoin as a unit of account and a store of value. This behavior would be price-supportive and would go a long way in furthering the monetization of bitcoin. However, for bitcoin to become a unit of account it must exhibit price stability. We cannot blame businesses for converting to fiat currency when the price of bitcoin regularly varies by more than 1% per day. So, at first glance this might appear to be a chicken-and-egg problem.\n<h1>Volatility as a feature</h1>\nThis is where currency traders (i.e. speculators) enter the equation. Price volatility is a problem for most people when they think about bitcoin but to those interested in trading, it is a beacon. This volatility presents a tremendous opportunity for profit. As with any significant market need, the return on investment is commensurate to the degree to which a market participant meets a specific market demand. Bitcoin needs more trading volume and the reward for providing this liquidity is substantial for those who know how to navigate volatile markets. Trading will tame bitcoin volatility by acting as the catalyst of a virtuous circle: increased trading volume means lower bid/ask spreads and increasing price stability, which leads to further adoption, which means a larger Bitcoin market cap, which brings more traders into the market. Rinse and repeat.\n<h1>The linear trend line</h1>\nThis virtuous circle of monetization has already begun. According to data gathered from btcvol.info, price volatility is decreasing over time. Drawing a linear trend line, we can extrapolate the volatility into the next few years as shown in the chart below:\n\n![volatility chart](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1200/1*PTgj5mg8RLofgOfF8CkhBQ.png)\n\nPrice volatility has lessened considerably as the Bitcoin network has grown and this trend will continue as the market capitalization of the network expands. Based on the current volatility trend, it is likely that we will see volatility halved in the next two years. If this trend continues, by 2017–2018 bitcoin volatility should be on par with volatility seen in the gold market at about 1–1.5%. Of course, if the network expands more quickly, following an exponential curve, these numbers could look very different. In the meantime, there is an opportunity to add value to the network and to increase price stability by trading bitcoin.\n<h1>Profiting from volatility</h1>\nFor the reasons mentioned above, to many people, price volatility is a “bug” in the current Bitcoin ecosystem but for those interested in trading, volatility is an attractive feature. In effect, the market is offering traders the chance to help “regulate” the bitcoin price and to receive some bitcoin in return for offering this liquidity. However, this is not as easy as it seems. In order to trade effectively, one must buy when the market is “oversold” and sell when the market is “overbought.” Most new traders struggle because smart trading is often counter to instinct. To trade profitably it is essential to have an effective trading plan that is scrupulously followed. This requires expertise, discipline, and time. This is where my company, [COINCUBE](https://coincube.io), presents real value. By taking a tested trading plan and putting it into code, COINCUBE offers users an expert trading strategy that is automated. This means users can stop with obsessive bitcoin price checking and get back to more productive things. COINCUBE’s ‘WAVE’ trading algorithm buys during price corrections and sells during price spikes, helping to regulate the bitcoin price and earning our users a profit at the same time.\n\nWritten by: Robert William Allen, Founder & CEO of [COINCUBE](https://coincube.io)",
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