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      "author": "reocan",
      "permlink": "i-ll-be-voting-tactically-for-a-labour-government-in-ge19",
      "title": "I'll be voting tactically for a Labour government in GE19",
      "body": "I'm writing this for two reasons:\n\n1. to convince myself that I haven't missed something important in deciding my voting intention;\n2. to convince anyone who might read this to vote in a similar manner.\n\nThis post is laid out in the following manner:\n\n1. how I'm taking into account the UK electoral system in my vote;\n2. a list of my priorities in this election and why my preferred party is tackling them in what I think is a constructive manner;\n3. a critique of my favoured party's policies so that I - and anyone reading this - can temper expectations;\n4. taking the current electoral climate into account, what my preferred _realistic_ outcome is.\n\nAs I was writing this post, [_The Observer view on who to vote for in the general election_](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/08/observer-view-on-general-election-and-who-to-vote-for) was published. It echoes a lot of what I've got to say (though the priorities and opinions are slightly different), and is shorter than what I've written below.\n\nI've tried to avoid addressing the party leaders here. I prefer to focus on policy. Leaders can change suddenly and without public input.\n\n---\n\n## How FPTP forces my hand\n\nI can't address my voting intention without mentioning the flawed electoral system in the UK. [First Past the Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting) fails at a fundamental level to accurately represent the popular vote. This has the effect of under-representing smaller parties. A side-effect of this is [tactical voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_voting).\n\nI tend to align most strongly with the Green Party. At various times - in council elections, general elections, and European elections - I've backed Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Greens. The electoral system in each case has factored into my decision.\n\nAfter a lot of thought, I've decided I will be voting tactically in #GE19. I live in a key marginal seat but my favoured party - Labour - typically come third.\n\nThe intention of voting this way is to prevent a Tory majority and encourage a Labour-led coalition. (While I'm hopeful, I'm not unrealistic; there's not much chance of a Labour majority.)\n\n**If you need help in your tactical vote to keep the Tories out, there are a number of websites to help you do that. [This article](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-election) is a good start.**\n\nAs I've said already, my own values align closest to those of the Green Party. I am thankful I have the opportunity to vote for their representation in other areas (such as in the last European Parliamentary elections), but in a contest where it feels there is more at stake (such as a FPTP general election in which I categorically _don't_ want to see one of the major parties in power), I'm inclined to vote a little less idealistically.\n\nAs it happens, this decision (to vote less idealistically) was made for me as the Greens withdrew in my constituency as part of their decision to join the so-called \"remain alliance\".\n\n---\n\n## What I love about [Labour's manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/)\n\nTaken as a whole, the Labour manifesto paints a picture of a Britain that is kinder, fairer, and capable of taking responsibility for the environment. It is inclusive, exciting, and ambitious.\n\n### Priority 1: Tackling the climate crisis head on\n\nMy greatest priority when voting in this election is the climate crisis. In November this year, [more than 11,000 scientists declared \"clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency\"](https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806).\n\n#### How will the climate crisis affect the UK?\n\nMake no mistake: we will _all_ be affected by this. We already _are_ being affected by this. In November, the UK saw [widespread river and surface water flooding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Yorkshire_floods). The independent Committee on Climate Change have [indicated that the sea level in the English Channel has already risen during the last century](https://www.theccc.org.uk/2014/02/19/climate-change-and-the-uk-floods/) (and continues to rise) and that there is some evidence to suggest that extreme rainfall is becoming more common because warmer air can hold more water.\n\nThe Environment Agency have also [issued a warning](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/climate-change-means-more-frequent-flooding-warns-environment-agency) that flooding will become more frequent due to the climate crisis.\n\nOn the other side of the coin, we can expect drier summers and therefore droughts, as explained by the [Health Protection Agency in 2012](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/371103/Health_Effects_of_Climate_Change_in_the_UK_2012_V13_with_cover_accessible.pdf).\n\nHigher temperatures also mean more deaths for vulnerable people and animals. The 2003 European heatwave claimed the lives of [more than 70,000 people](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631069107003770?via%3Dihub). The Earth Policy Institute called it [\"one of the deadliest climate-related disasters in Western history.\"](http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2006/update56) This will become more common.\n\nPublic Health England have indicated that a warmer climate [\"might bring rise in UK mosquito-borne diseases\".](https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/climate-change-might-bring-rise-in-uk-mosquito-borne-diseases/)\n\nA [2015 report by the World Food Programme](https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/46974_odiwfpimpactofcconfnsinmena2015webversion%5B1%5D-2.pdf) indicates that the climate crisis presents risks to the whole food system - from production, through distribution, to consumption. Diets in the UK could be more nutrient sparse as a result.\n\n[A study in 2017](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6370/1610) indicated that the climate crisis will drive a huge increase in the number of migrants seeking asylum in Europe if current trends continue.\n\nThis is a particularly local view on what is a global crisis. As the aforementioned 11,000 scientists have put it:\n\n> An immense increase of scale in endeavors to conserve our biosphere is needed to avoid untold suffering due to the climate crisis.\n\nI'm glad to see that our government have [declared a climate emergency](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48126677) and have finally set a deadline on achieving net-zero emissions. The climate emergency is firmly on the agenda in this election.\n\n#### How will Labour tackle it?\n\nOther than the Greens, I think Labour have the most ambitious policies when it comes to tackling the climate crisis. It is difficult to separate all of Labour's policies from their efforts to tackle the climate crisis. The hard-hitting policy is their [Green New Deal/Green Industrial Revolution](https://www.labourgnd.uk/gnd-explained) in which a massive programme of state investment would rapidly decarbonise the economy.\n\nBut we should also remember that climate change is fundamentally about class; it means chaos for the many while the few profit. In this vein, many of Labour's policies on public ownership, democratic control of industry, investment in public infrastructure, and so on, help to tackle the climate crisis.\n\nThe stakes when it comes to the climate emergency are much higher than Brexit. Think about your fellow humans all around the world when you vote.\n\n### Priority 2: A fair say on Brexit\n\nI voted Remain. No big surprises there, and throwing it out there so the context is clear.\n\nThis is another massive issue, so I'm going to try and focus it around why I think having a second vote is a good idea. That said, I think remaining in the EU will massively help address my first priority issue of the climate crisis.\n\n[Labour's Brexit policy](https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/the-final-say-on-brexit/) is to have negotiated a withdrawal agreement that doesn't negatively impact the rights of workers within three months of coming to power. Within six months of coming to power, they will hold a referendum asking voters to decide between this new withdrawal agreement and Remain.\n\nWe - the British electorate - are undoubtedly much better informed about what the EU is, what it does, how we operate within it, what the pros and cons of staying or leaving are, and the subtlety in different forms of leaving (and what is possible to agree with our European neighbours). [We know which lies were told](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/final-say-brexit-referendum-lies-boris-johnson-leave-campaign-remain-a8466751.html) during and following the campaigning and the difficulties involved in exiting that weren't addressed back then (not least the issue of the [Irish border](https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-referendum-and-irish-border/)).\n\nI think everyone will make a much more informed decision about what to do now. There will be a concrete Leave option on the table, rather than the nebulous idea of leaving that was presented in 2016. We have negotiated several different deals so know what the limitations would be outside of the EU.\n\nI hear a lot that holding a second referendum would be tantamount to an assault on democracy. I say that the first (advisory) referendum has done well to open up a proper, extended public debate on the central issue and all surrounding issues. In a democracy, one is able to change one's mind. And the changing mood of the electorate should be taken into account on a regular basis.\n\nSo much has changed in three years that I think it makes sense to double-check the result. The result was so close to make such a massive course correction in the national journey that it seems prudent to ask again.\n\nI also get that the country wants to move on. I do. But it's not so easy. As much as the Tories like to talk about \"getting Brexit done\", there will be years and years of negotiation after we've passed a withdrawal agreement and actually exited the EU. It's not just going to go away. This will be our lives for a decade, at least.\n\n### Priority 3: Be kind\n\nLabour hopes to:\n\n* bring in a Real Living Wage of at least £10 an hour for _all workers_ (from the age of 16);\n* create a National Education Service, which will see smaller class sizes and free university tuition and free lifelong learning with the opportunity to reskill;\n* give the NHS the funding it needs so that it offers free prescriptions for all and free basic dentistry;\n* end the social care crisis so that our ageing population is looked after with dignity in the winter of their life with free social care for older people.\n\nThis will be expensive, though I believe that a [progressive tax system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_tax) like the one Labour is proposing will place most of the burden on wealthier people. (See the \"Tax and spend\" section a little later for my opinion on this.)\n\nIt breaks my heart to hear of [child poverty](https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2018), [rising homelessness](https://www.homeless.org.uk/facts/homelessness-in-numbers/rough-sleeping/rough-sleeping-explore-data), [rising use of food banks](https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/end-year-stats/), [rising inequality](https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/how-has-inequality-changed), and more devastating stats for what's supposed to be one of the wealthiest nations in the world. It should be a matter of national shame that the [UK's six richest people control as much wealth as the poorest 13 million](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/03/uk-six-richest-people-control-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-13m-study).\n\nI absolutely hold dear the idea of a [meritocratic society](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meritocracy); that people should be rewarded according to their talent, effort, and achievement rather than wealth or social class. But that's not what we see in the UK. Billionaires are often not billionaires solely because of the aforementioned talent, effort, and achievement, but because of privilege and luck. Massive amounts of wealth are inherited. And solid national infrastructure and government programmes (funded by the taxpayer) provide the correct environment for entrepreneurs to make their money.\n\nYes, let people succeed, let them reap the rewards of their success, but let's not forget that they don't exist in a vacuum.\n\nSo, please be kind when you vote.\n\n---\n\n## Getting real about Labour's manifesto\n\nThe manifesto proposes massive, expensive, and revolutionary changes. Public spending will be enormous and the proposed tax changes are also heavy.\n\n### Tax and spend\n\nIt is worth noting the [analysis of the the various parties' manifestos](https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/manifestos) by the Institute of Fiscal Studies. Particularly worth bearing in mind is the [initial reaction from IFS researchers to the Labour manifesto](https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/labour-manifesto-an-initial-reaction-from-ifs-researchers).\n\nThe takeaway is that Labour probably won't be able to raise the money they expect to, more than just the top 5% of earners will be affected, and they probably won't be able to constructively spend money on the scale they're suggesting. However, the proposed tax changes are admitted to be generally progressive.\n\nBut I still think it's the right direction to be heading in. Having looked through the analysis, it doesn't appear as if the UK will be at a total extreme compared to global or historical precedent. We might be moving away from averages, or established patterns, or _towards_ an extreme, but **I think doing something bold and unusual is entirely expected in the face of today's challenges**.\n\nWe can't continue with business as usual. In terms of the climate crisis alone, we should be mobilising resources just as we did for the world wars. We are, after all, talking about an existential threat to civilisation as we know it.\n\n### Renationalisation\n\nThe IFS have also warned that Labour renationalisation [may delay the low-carbon economy](https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/labour-s-nationalisation-policy).\n\nHowever, even with regulation, private enterprise has repeatedly shown its disdain for the environment and proceeded on the course of overconsumption.\n\nIt might be up for debate to say [exactly how long we have known that we're causing climate change](https://earthtalk.org/human-caused-global-warming/), but it's longer than most think. The science behind climate change was understood by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. At any rate, corporations have had plenty of time to change the way they operate and, simply put, _haven't_.\n\nI think renationalisation takes the choice away from them entirely. No dodging regulations or exploiting loopholes. No dragging of feet. No blaming of regulation for lay-offs and redundancies. No lobbying for loosening of regulations. No playing cat-and-mouse. No more _games_ at all.\n\n### What I don't like\n\nThere's not a lot in the manifesto that I downright disagree with, but there are one or two aspects that particularly rub me the wrong way. I always keep in mind that no one party or manifesto will ever be perfectly aligned to my own political views.\n\nThe [compensation of women born between 6 Apirl 1950 and 5 April 1955 to the tune of £58bn](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50546923) seems unfair and unnecessary. The argument goes that these women were not given adequate warning to the raising of their state pension age, though the relevant act was passed in 1995 and written letters passed out years ago.\n\nThese women are also generally much better off than average for the population as a whole, with the likes of Theresa May and Diane Abbott to benefit with an average payment of £15,380 each. (That's not to say that May and Abbott are entirely representative; there are certainly women in this group that could benefit hugely from this payout, but there are better ways to support them, and Labour has proposed such methods in its other policies.)\n\nLabour have also proposed a freeze in the state pension age so it's kept at 66 years (for men and women).\n\nThere's a lot to unpack behind these pension changes, but both policies (compensation and pension age freeze) seem short-sighted to me. The compensation just passes the buck from women of one generation to another; it will be younger women that miss out, now.\n\nLonger life expectancies mean that more and more people will be entering retirement with a proportionally smaller workforce supporting their old-age benefits.\n\nFrom a personal perspective, I'm currently not due to reach retirement age until 68. When I think about demographic and economic trends, I don't actually expect to receive much _at all_ from the state in terms of pension. With those timelines (40+ years and a number of governments), there's absolutely no guarantee that I will benefit fairly from a lifetime of NI contributions. In fact, I'm betting on getting nothing; means-testing for pensions seems a sensible reaction to an ageing population, and I won't (and shouldn't) benefit from that sort of a system.\n\nWe'll eventually reach a point at which we actually need to address the generational unfairness. It makes sense to do it sooner than later, as passing the buck will mean more and more people are affected.\n\n---\n\n## Why I'm voting to encourage a Labour-led coalition\n\nIt's worth saying that Labour are playing to win. At least, on the surface. As far as I'm aware, they've not overtly indicated they'd be willing to form a coalition government or come to some [confidence-and-supply agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_and_supply). But I think there's wiggle room. (And I think they'll have to, if they really want to lock the Tories out, as a Labour majority is unlikely.) The SNP seem relatively warm to the idea of a Labour-SNP alliance (by 2019 standards, at least).\n\nTheir price, though?\n\n#IndyRef2. A second referendum on Scottish independence.\n\nThis post isn't a place I want to dive into that vast topic. It's not something I've thought a lot about, to be honest. My gut says I'd prefer the UK to stay together, though I am also wholly in support of the right to self determination.\n\nThis is a right that Corbyn has also historically supported around the world, so he'd be hard-pressed to deny it on his home turf. The last I heard, he had indicated [it wouldn't be a priority in the \"early years\" of the next term of Parliament](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50397033). Which, I think, is as good as ascent to the idea.\n\n### The SNP might not be enough\n\nA Labour-SNP alliance may still not have a majority and may need to come to an agreement with a third party (or more). Corbyn has [ruled out a Lib Dem coalition](https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/25/jeremy-corbyn-rules-lib-dem-coalition-happily-signed-austerity-11216622/) due to their compliance in enabling austerity during the Lib-Con coalition 2010-2015.\n\nI'm sure many will see this as a plus, particularly students who suffered at the hands of a tripling in university fees. However, Labour may have to take a softer line if the numbers don't add up.\n\n### What would a Labour-SNP alliance be like?\n\nIn years past, I've been quite impressed at the performance of SNP in multi-leader televised debates. Their platform tended to seem progressive, their ideals not dissimilar to my own. But I didn't pay an awful lot of attention because I would never be able to vote for them.\n\nNow it's all relevant.\n\nI think Labour and SNP align on a lot of issues:\n\n* Both support a second Brexit referendum with Remain on the ballot paper.\n* The SNP want a second independence referendum, Labour aren't _opposed_.\n* Both want to increase health spending across the UK. (Scotland spends more per head on health than any other part of the UK.)\n* Both want to raise investment in public services and the economy.\n* Both want to protect the NHS from privatisation.\n* Both want to accelerate the rate at which we achieve net-zero carbon emissions.\n\nI think, overall, the SNP are not quite as left-leaning as the present Labour party. To a more right-leaning voter, this might be somewhat of a consolation as the SNP would likely temper Labour policy so that the execution was somewhat more centrist. Something like this happened during the Lib-Con coalition years.\n\n### What's the alternative?\n\nA Tory majority.\n\nFrom the point of view of policy, the Conservatives don't come close to addressing my top three priorities.\n\nThey are also [systematically lying to the electorate](https://december12.co.uk/) and evading scrutiny at every step:\n\n* [The NHS is very much on the table in a trade deal with the US](https://www.channel4.com/press/news/trumps-plan-nhs-channel-4-dispatches).\n* [The Brexit deal _will_ require border checks](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/06/leaked-brexit-paper-unstitches-pms-northern-ireland-claims-says-corbyn).\n* [CCHQ pretended to be an independent fact checker](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50482637) during the first ITV Leader Debate.\n* Labour's proposed corporation tax rate of 26% [will not be \"the highest rate in Europe.\"](https://taxfoundation.org/corporate-tax-rates-europe-2019/) (Boris Johnson).\n* [The NHS is not \"performing better than ever.\"](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/matt-hancock-says-in-many-20881458) (Matt Hancock).\n* [No 10 have blocked the cross-party intelligence and security select committee's (ISC) publication on Russian activities in Britain](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/no-10-blocks-russia-eu-referendum-report-until-after-election), including funding of the Tory party.\n* [There will not be 40 new hospitals](https://fullfact.org/health/six-hospitals-not-forty/).\n* [Johnson has refused set-piece interviews](https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/millions-watch-andrew-neil-call-out-boris-johnson-over-one-on-one-interview-snub/) other leaders have faced.\n* [Johnson has cancelled numerous appearances before parliament's liaison committee](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-select-committee-brexit-mps-questions-a9168731.html).\n* [The Tories tried to unlawfully shut down parliament](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/parliament/decision-of-the-supreme-court-on-the-prorogation-of-parliament/) and had to be forced to comply with the will of parliament by passing [the Benn Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_(Withdrawal)_(No._2)_Act_2019).\n\nI wish I could have more faith that, no matter which party came to power, we would probably be OK and our institutions and constitutional principles would carry us through. I have never felt so strongly against a Conservative government before. It is worth saying that I have agreed with their actions on occasion and like to believe I'm not opposed to their agenda by default.\n\nIt is worth noting, however, that even the [former Tory PM John Major is urging people to vote against the Tories](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-general-election-campaign-john-major-conservatives-vote-a9235436.html) in this election.\n\n---\n\n**Be kind. Be fair. For the many, not the few.**",
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      "permlink": "i-ll-be-voting-tactically-for-a-labour-government-in-ge19",
      "title": "I'll be voting tactically for a Labour government in GE19",
      "body": "I'm writing this for two reasons:\n\n1. to convince myself that I haven't missed something important in deciding my voting intention;\n2. to convince anyone who might read this to vote in a similar manner.\n\nThis post is laid out in the following manner:\n\n1. how I'm taking into account the UK electoral system in my vote;\n2. a list of my priorities in this election and why my preferred party is tackling them in what I think is a constructive manner;\n3. a critique of my favoured party's policies so that I - and anyone reading this - can temper expectations;\n4. taking the current electoral climate into account, what my preferred _realistic_ outcome is.\n\nAs I was writing this post, [_The Observer view on who to vote for in the general election_](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/08/observer-view-on-general-election-and-who-to-vote-for) was published. It echoes a lot of what I've got to say (though the priorities and opinions are slightly different), and is shorter than what I've written below.\n\nI've tried to avoid addressing the party leaders here. I prefer to focus on policy. Leaders can change suddenly and without public input.\n\n---\n\n## How FPTP forces my hand\n\nI can't address my voting intention without mentioning the flawed electoral system in the UK. [First Past the Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting) fails at a fundamental level to accurately represent the popular vote. This has the effect of under-representing smaller parties. A side-effect of this is [tactical voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_voting).\n\nI tend to align most strongly with the Green Party. At various times - in council elections, general elections, and European elections - I've backed Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Greens. The electoral system in each case has factored into my decision.\n\nAfter a lot of thought, I've decided I will be voting tactically in #GE19. I live in a key marginal seat but my favoured party - Labour - typically come third.\n\nThe intention of voting this way is to prevent a Tory majority and encourage a Labour-led coalition. (While I'm hopeful, I'm not unrealistic; there's not much chance of a Labour majority.)\n\n**If you need help in your tactical vote to keep the Tories out, there are a number of websites to help you do that. [This article](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-election) is a good start.**\n\nAs I've said already, my own values align closest to those of the Green Party. I am thankful I have the opportunity to vote for their representation in other areas (such as in the last European Parliamentary elections), but in a contest where it feels there is more at stake (such as a FPTP general election in which I categorically _don't_ want to see one of the major parties in power), I'm inclined to vote a little less idealistically.\n\nAs it happens, this decision (to vote less idealistically) was made for me as the Greens withdrew in my constituency as part of their decision to join the so-called \"remain alliance\".\n\n---\n\n## What I love about [Labour's manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/)\n\nTaken as a whole, the Labour manifesto paints a picture of a Britain that is kinder, fairer, and capable of taking responsibility for the environment. It is inclusive, exciting, and ambitious.\n\n### Priority 1: Tackling the climate crisis head on\n\nMy greatest priority when voting in this election is the climate crisis. In November this year, [more than 11,000 scientists declared \"clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency\"](https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806).\n\n#### How will the climate crisis affect the UK?\n\nMake no mistake: we will _all_ be affected by this. We already _are_ being affected by this. In November, the UK saw [widespread river and surface water flooding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Yorkshire_floods). The independent Committee on Climate Change have [indicated that the sea level in the English Channel has already risen during the last century](https://www.theccc.org.uk/2014/02/19/climate-change-and-the-uk-floods/) (and continues to rise) and that there is some evidence to suggest that extreme rainfall is becoming more common because warmer air can hold more water.\n\nThe Environment Agency have also [issued a warning](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/climate-change-means-more-frequent-flooding-warns-environment-agency) that flooding will become more frequent due to the climate crisis.\n\nOn the other side of the coin, we can expect drier summers and therefore droughts, as explained by the [Health Protection Agency in 2012](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/371103/Health_Effects_of_Climate_Change_in_the_UK_2012_V13_with_cover_accessible.pdf).\n\nHigher temperatures also mean more deaths for vulnerable people and animals. The 2003 European heatwave claimed the lives of [more than 70,000 people](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631069107003770?via%3Dihub). The Earth Policy Institute called it [\"one of the deadliest climate-related disasters in Western history.\"](http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2006/update56) This will become more common.\n\nPublic Health England have indicated that a warmer climate [\"might bring rise in UK mosquito-borne diseases\".](https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/climate-change-might-bring-rise-in-uk-mosquito-borne-diseases/)\n\nA [2015 report by the World Food Programme](https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/46974_odiwfpimpactofcconfnsinmena2015webversion%5B1%5D-2.pdf) indicates that the climate crisis presents risks to the whole food system - from production, through distribution, to consumption. Diets in the UK could be more nutrient sparse as a result.\n\n[A study in 2017](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6370/1610) indicated that the climate crisis will drive a huge increase in the number of migrants seeking asylum in Europe if current trends continue.\n\nThis is a particularly local view on what is a global crisis. As the aforementioned 11,000 scientists have put it:\n\n> An immense increase of scale in endeavors to conserve our biosphere is needed to avoid untold suffering due to the climate crisis.\n\nI'm glad to see that our government have [declared a climate emergency](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48126677) and have finally set a deadline on achieving net-zero emissions. The climate emergency is firmly on the agenda in this election.\n\n#### How will Labour tackle it?\n\nOther than the Greens, I think Labour have the most ambitious policies when it comes to tackling the climate crisis. It is difficult to separate all of Labour's policies from their efforts to tackle the climate crisis. The hard-hitting policy is their [Green New Deal/Green Industrial Revolution](https://www.labourgnd.uk/gnd-explained) in which a massive programme of state investment would rapidly decarbonise the economy.\n\nBut we should also remember that climate change is fundamentally about class; it means chaos for the many while the few profit. In this vein, many of Labour's policies on public ownership, democratic control of industry, investment in public infrastructure, and so on, help to tackle the climate crisis.\n\nThe stakes when it comes to the climate emergency are much higher than Brexit. Think about your fellow humans all around the world when you vote.\n\n### Priority 2: A fair say on Brexit\n\nI voted Remain. No big surprises there, and throwing it out there so the context is clear.\n\nThis is another massive issue, so I'm going to try and focus it around why I think having a second vote is a good idea. That said, I think remaining in the EU will massively help address my first priority issue of the climate crisis.\n\n[Labour's Brexit policy](https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/the-final-say-on-brexit/) is to have negotiated a withdrawal agreement that doesn't negatively impact the rights of workers within three months of coming to power. Within six months of coming to power, they will hold a referendum asking voters to decide between this new withdrawal agreement and Remain.\n\nWe - the British electorate - are undoubtedly much better informed about what the EU is, what it does, how we operate within it, what the pros and cons of staying or leaving are, and the subtlety in different forms of leaving (and what is possible to agree with our European neighbours). [We know which lies were told](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/final-say-brexit-referendum-lies-boris-johnson-leave-campaign-remain-a8466751.html) during and following the campaigning and the difficulties involved in exiting that weren't addressed back then (not least the issue of the [Irish border](https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-referendum-and-irish-border/)).\n\nI think everyone will make a much more informed decision about what to do now. There will be a concrete Leave option on the table, rather than the nebulous idea of leaving that was presented in 2016. We have negotiated several different deals so know what the limitations would be outside of the EU.\n\nI hear a lot that holding a second referendum would be tantamount to an assault on democracy. I say that the first (advisory) referendum has done well to open up a proper, extended public debate on the central issue and all surrounding issues. In a democracy, one is able to change one's mind. And the changing mood of the electorate should be taken into account on a regular basis.\n\nSo much has changed in three years that I think it makes sense to double-check the result. The result was so close to make such a massive course correction in the national journey that it seems prudent to ask again.\n\nI also get that the country wants to move on. I do. But it's not so easy. As much as the Tories like to talk about \"getting Brexit done\", there will be years and years of negotiation after we've passed a withdrawal agreement and actually exited the EU. It's not just going to go away. This will be our lives for a decade, at least.\n\n### Priority 3: Be kind\n\nLabour hopes to:\n\n* bring in a Real Living Wage of at least £10 an hour for _all workers_ (from the age of 16);\n* create a National Education Service, which will see smaller class sizes and free university tuition and free lifelong learning with the opportunity to reskill;\n* give the NHS the funding it needs so that it offers free prescriptions for all and free basic dentistry;\n* end the social care crisis so that our ageing population is looked after with dignity in the winter of their life with free social care for older people.\n\nThis will be expensive, though I believe that a [progressive tax system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_tax) like the one Labour is proposing will place most of the burden on wealthier people. (See the \"Tax and spend\" section a little later for my opinion on this.)\n\nIt breaks my heart to hear of [child poverty](https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2018), [rising homelessness](https://www.homeless.org.uk/facts/homelessness-in-numbers/rough-sleeping/rough-sleeping-explore-data), [rising use of food banks](https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/end-year-stats/), [rising inequality](https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/how-has-inequality-changed), and more devastating stats for what's supposed to be one of the wealthiest nations in the world. It should be a matter of national shame that the [UK's six richest people control as much wealth as the poorest 13 million](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/dec/03/uk-six-richest-people-control-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-13m-study).\n\nI absolutely hold dear the idea of a [meritocratic society](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meritocracy); that people should be rewarded according to their talent, effort, and achievement rather than wealth or social class. But that's not what we see in the UK. Billionaires are often not billionaires solely because of the aforementioned talent, effort, and achievement, but because of privilege and luck. Massive amounts of wealth are inherited. And solid national infrastructure and government programmes (funded by the taxpayer) provide the correct environment for entrepreneurs to make their money.\n\nYes, let people succeed, let them reap the rewards of their success, but let's not forget that they don't exist in a vacuum.\n\nSo, please be kind when you vote.\n\n---\n\n## Getting real about Labour's manifesto\n\nThe manifesto proposes massive, expensive, and revolutionary changes. Public spending will be enormous and the proposed tax changes are also heavy.\n\n### Tax and spend\n\nIt is worth noting the [analysis of the the various parties' manifestos](https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/manifestos) by the Institute of Fiscal Studies. Particularly worth bearing in mind is the [initial reaction from IFS researchers to the Labour manifesto](https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/labour-manifesto-an-initial-reaction-from-ifs-researchers).\n\nThe takeaway is that Labour probably won't be able to raise the money they expect to, more than just the top 5% of earners will be affected, and they probably won't be able to constructively spend money on the scale they're suggesting. However, the proposed tax changes are admitted to be generally progressive.\n\nBut I still think it's the right direction to be heading in. Having looked through the analysis, it doesn't appear as if the UK will be at a total extreme compared to global or historical precedent. We might be moving away from averages, or established patterns, or _towards_ an extreme, but **I think doing something bold and unusual is entirely expected in the face of today's challenges**.\n\nWe can't continue with business as usual. In terms of the climate crisis alone, we should be mobilising resources just as we did for the world wars. We are, after all, talking about an existential threat to civilisation as we know it.\n\n### Renationalisation\n\nThe IFS have also warned that Labour renationalisation [may delay the low-carbon economy](https://www.ifs.org.uk/election/2019/article/labour-s-nationalisation-policy).\n\nHowever, even with regulation, private enterprise has repeatedly shown its disdain for the environment and proceeded on the course of overconsumption.\n\nIt might be up for debate to say [exactly how long we have known that we're causing climate change](https://earthtalk.org/human-caused-global-warming/), but it's longer than most think. The science behind climate change was understood by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. At any rate, corporations have had plenty of time to change the way they operate and, simply put, _haven't_.\n\nI think renationalisation takes the choice away from them entirely. No dodging regulations or exploiting loopholes. No dragging of feet. No blaming of regulation for lay-offs and redundancies. No lobbying for loosening of regulations. No playing cat-and-mouse. No more _games_ at all.\n\n### What I don't like\n\nThere's not a lot in the manifesto that I downright disagree with, but there are one or two aspects that particularly rub me the wrong way. I always keep in mind that no one party or manifesto will ever be perfectly aligned to my own political views.\n\nThe [compensation of women born between 6 Apirl 1950 and 5 April 1955 to the tune of £58bn](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50546923) seems unfair and unnecessary. The argument goes that these women were not given adequate warning to the raising of their state pension age, though the relevant act was passed in 1995 and written letters passed out years ago.\n\nThese women are also generally much better off than average for the population as a whole, with the likes of Theresa May and Diane Abbott to benefit with an average payment of £15,380 each. (That's not to say that May and Abbott are entirely representative; there are certainly women in this group that could benefit hugely from this payout, but there are better ways to support them, and Labour has proposed such methods in its other policies.)\n\nLabour have also proposed a freeze in the state pension age so it's kept at 66 years (for men and women).\n\nThere's a lot to unpack behind these pension changes, but both policies (compensation and pension age freeze) seem short-sighted to me. The compensation just passes the buck from women of one generation to another; it will be younger women that miss out, now.\n\nLonger life expectancies mean that more and more people will be entering retirement with a proportionally smaller workforce supporting their old-age benefits.\n\nFrom a personal perspective, I'm currently not due to reach retirement age until 68. When I think about demographic and economic trends, I don't actually expect to receive much _at all_ from the state in terms of pension. With those timelines (40+ years and a number of governments), there's absolutely no guarantee that I will benefit fairly from a lifetime of NI contributions. In fact, I'm betting on getting nothing; means-testing for pensions seems a sensible reaction to an ageing population, and I won't (and shouldn't) benefit from that sort of a system.\n\nWe'll eventually reach a point at which we actually need to address the generational unfairness. It makes sense to do it sooner than later, as passing the buck will mean more and more people are affected.\n\n---\n\n## Why I'm voting to encourage a Labour-led coalition\n\nIt's worth saying that Labour are playing to win. At least, on the surface. As far as I'm aware, they've not overtly indicated they'd be willing to form a coalition government or come to some [confidence-and-supply agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_and_supply). But I think there's wiggle room. (And I think they'll have to, if they really want to lock the Tories out, as a Labour majority is unlikely.) The SNP seem relatively warm to the idea of a Labour-SNP alliance (by 2019 standards, at least).\n\nTheir price, though?\n\n#IndyRef2. A second referendum on Scottish independence.\n\nThis post isn't a place I want to dive into that vast topic. It's not something I've thought a lot about, to be honest. My gut says I'd prefer the UK to stay together, though I am also wholly in support of the right to self determination.\n\nThis is a right that Corbyn has also historically supported around the world, so he'd be hard-pressed to deny it on his home turf. The last I heard, he had indicated [it wouldn't be a priority in the \"early years\" of the next term of Parliament](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50397033). Which, I think, is as good as ascent to the idea.\n\n### The SNP might not be enough\n\nA Labour-SNP alliance may still not have a majority and may need to come to an agreement with a third party (or more). Corbyn has [ruled out a Lib Dem coalition](https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/25/jeremy-corbyn-rules-lib-dem-coalition-happily-signed-austerity-11216622/) due to their compliance in enabling austerity during the Lib-Con coalition 2010-2015.\n\nI'm sure many will see this as a plus, particularly students who suffered at the hands of a tripling in university fees. However, Labour may have to take a softer line if the numbers don't add up.\n\n### What would a Labour-SNP alliance be like?\n\nIn years past, I've been quite impressed at the performance of SNP in multi-leader televised debates. Their platform tended to seem progressive, their ideals not dissimilar to my own. But I didn't pay an awful lot of attention because I would never be able to vote for them.\n\nNow it's all relevant.\n\nI think Labour and SNP align on a lot of issues:\n\n* Both support a second Brexit referendum with Remain on the ballot paper.\n* The SNP want a second independence referendum, Labour aren't _opposed_.\n* Both want to increase health spending across the UK. (Scotland spends more per head on health than any other part of the UK.)\n* Both want to raise investment in public services and the economy.\n* Both want to protect the NHS from privatisation.\n* Both want to accelerate the rate at which we achieve net-zero carbon emissions.\n\nI think, overall, the SNP are not quite as left-leaning as the present Labour party. To a more right-leaning voter, this might be somewhat of a consolation as the SNP would likely temper Labour policy so that the execution was somewhat more centrist. Something like this happened during the Lib-Con coalition years.\n\n### What's the alternative?\n\nA Tory majority.\n\nFrom the point of view of policy, the Conservatives don't come close to addressing my top three priorities.\n\nThey are also [systematically lying to the electorate](https://december12.co.uk/) and evading scrutiny at every step:\n\n* [The NHS is very much on the table in a trade deal with the US](https://www.channel4.com/press/news/trumps-plan-nhs-channel-4-dispatches).\n* [The Brexit deal _will_ require border checks](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/06/leaked-brexit-paper-unstitches-pms-northern-ireland-claims-says-corbyn).\n* [CCHQ pretended to be an independent fact checker](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50482637) during the first ITV Leader Debate.\n* Labour's proposed corporation tax rate of 26% [will not be \"the highest rate in Europe.\"](https://taxfoundation.org/corporate-tax-rates-europe-2019/) (Boris Johnson).\n* [The NHS is not \"performing better than ever.\"](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/matt-hancock-says-in-many-20881458) (Matt Hancock).\n* [No 10 have blocked the cross-party intelligence and security select committee's (ISC) publication on Russian activities in Britain](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/no-10-blocks-russia-eu-referendum-report-until-after-election), including funding of the Tory party.\n* [There will not be 40 new hospitals](https://fullfact.org/health/six-hospitals-not-forty/).\n* [Johnson has refused set-piece interviews](https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/millions-watch-andrew-neil-call-out-boris-johnson-over-one-on-one-interview-snub/) other leaders have faced.\n* [Johnson has cancelled numerous appearances before parliament's liaison committee](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-select-committee-brexit-mps-questions-a9168731.html).\n* [The Tories tried to unlawfully shut down parliament](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/parliament/decision-of-the-supreme-court-on-the-prorogation-of-parliament/) and had to be forced to comply with the will of parliament by passing [the Benn Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_(Withdrawal)_(No._2)_Act_2019).\n\nI wish I could have more faith that, no matter which party came to power, we would probably be OK and our institutions and constitutional principles would carry us through. I have never felt so strongly against a Conservative government before. It is worth saying that I have agreed with their actions on occasion and like to believe I'm not opposed to their agenda by default.\n\nIt is worth noting, however, that even the [former Tory PM John Major is urging people to vote against the Tories](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-general-election-campaign-john-major-conservatives-vote-a9235436.html) in this election.\n\n---\n\n**Be kind. Be fair. For the many, not the few.**",
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