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      "body": "![16226_wx.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYwUywCm7iNmjULWnZdHQvXbEK4oyhGrH9UrRKnXgRfyM/16226_wx.jpg)\n\n这只是一个猜想。\n\n最近老是听到说“蚂蚁金服”坏账率要低于传统银行的说法，我今天就想从“数据维度”这个角度来看一下为什么传统银行在控制放贷风险这方面做不过蚂蚁金服。\n\n>大数据+人工智能的时代，什么资源最重要——数据\n\n这可不是我说的，是阿里巴巴的集团前副总裁涂子沛先生说的。数据是这个时代的土壤，所有的算法、人工智能都需要有数据来喂养。现在涂子沛先生在杭州成立了观数公司，感兴趣的可以去搜索一下相关的资料，另外提一句，涂子沛先生的《数据之巅》写的非常精彩，看过后会很开脑洞。与其听有些“专家”在微博乱嚷嚷，倒不如坐下来好好读读这本佳作。\n\n我不是数据公司的从业人员，也没有相关领域的朋友，与其说蚂蚁金服是怎么做到的坏账率如此之低倒不如来一起开开脑洞，想一想有哪些方法能能把坏账率做的更低。下面的内容纯粹是我的假想，可能很多观点都是错的。\n\n先抛出个结论吧。\n\n>数据的维度越多，对一个人的判断就会越精准。\n\n当我们在逛淘宝时，我们在看一些什么类型的产品、是高档奢侈品还是些其他的高仿品、看的是旗舰店的正牌货还是小店的杂牌货这些淘宝都有相应的数据，我们看的产品是什么价位、我们的收入水平又是多少，我们的家庭成员在支付宝的交易数据是怎样的，同样，这些阿里都能知道，进而他们可以根据我们的这些信息（当然可能并不只是这一点信息，这里只是举个例子）来判断我们个人的消费能力、看出我们的消费习惯、信用状况等等。若是阿里的数据模型对我们进行分析后，发现我们是个收入较低且喜欢购买奢侈品的用户，进而给我们打上了还款能力差、财务风险意识淡薄的标签，那当我们需要贷款消费时，他就很可能不会贷给我们，或者带给我们的额度非常少。若是阿里的数据模型分析我们的个人数据后得出我们还款能力强、消费信用好，那它就能更放心的把款贷给我们。\n\n而传统的商业银行是没有这些购物、消费等各个维度的数据的。\n\n传统银行很容易受到地域的限制，对于身处千里之外的陌生借款人，他是不太敢借款的。因为他们对这些身处异乡的陌生人并不了解，而这恰恰是阿里的独特优势，甭管你是南方人还是北方人，甭管你是个胖子还是个瘦子，只要你是阿里的用户，他就可以做到足不出户轻松掌控你的方方面面。他拥有我们更多维度的数据，很容易对我们个人进行精准分析，即使你在千里之外他仍对你了如指掌。\n\n数据简直就是财富啊，银行要是有这么多的数据，那岂不是能开展更多的优质客户，增加更多的业务量。这让我想起了因特尔公号的一句广告语——拥有数据=掌控未来。听起来可能会觉得不靠谱，说不好以后还真是这么回事。\n\n既然都疯想到这了，那不如让我们再疯一点，把脑洞再开大一点。\n\n若是阿里的数据会拿出来售卖，那会不会有公司来买呢？如果价位合适，公司买过来能利用这些数据产生更多的利润，我猜可能会有人买的。这只是猜想，阿里卖不卖这是个问题，我们不去讨论。\n\n这时你可能会问了：人家阿里数据那么多，其他小公司数据那么少，这场交易中那岂不是小公司会更赚便宜么？这个问题确实是个值得思考的问题，当小公司数量少的时候阿里这样的巨头可能还真瞧不上眼，可小公司要是多了，那就不好说了。\n\n为了让这个猜测更有说服力，我们拿个现实生活中的例子来看一下。\n\n**多头借贷**大家都或多或少的听说过吧，**多头借贷简单点说就是同一个人在不同的平台分别借款。**若是各家放款机构不能共享这个贷款人的信息，那就会出现每家公司都判断这个人还款能力很好，但因为他同时借了多加公司的款而导致最终无法还款的情况。\n\n如果各家公司的相关数据可以相互交易，那坏账率会不会更低呢？做出错误判断、被借款人蒙骗的概率会不会更低呢？这些小公司的数据对阿里这样的巨头来说同样是起作用的。\n\n在这巴拉巴拉的说了这么多，总结起来就两点猜想：\n\n>1.数据的维度越多，对一个人的判断就会越精准——数据的全面性很重要。\n\n>2.数据的之间的交易是有巨大市场的\n\n若是有一个能够保证各家机构利益的数据交换平台，那会是一种什么样的存在呢？\n\n欢迎大家留言探讨。",
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