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      "body": "([See this writeup.](https://medium.com/@admin_44913/fomo3d-and-dangerous-game-theory-97bd5f47ab3b))",
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      "author": "planck",
      "body": "@@ -1786,16 +1786,18 @@\n he $20. \n+**\n In fact,\n@@ -1885,9 +1885,10 @@\n ame.\n-%C2%B9\n+**\n  I%E2%80%99l\n@@ -2500,16 +2500,205 @@\n  that). \n+But not bidding is equal in expectation to the best strategy. (%5BFor more details you can see this writeup.%5B(https://medium.com/@admin_44913/fomo3d-and-dangerous-game-theory-97bd5f47ab3b))%0A%0A\n *But a s\n@@ -2805,16 +2805,27 @@\n s first \n+at Harvard \n and she \n@@ -3001,16 +3001,25 @@\n hen she \n+publicly \n destroys\n@@ -3036,17 +3036,33 @@\n te key t\n-o\n+hat would let her\n  revoke \n@@ -3083,47 +3083,9 @@\n * %0A%0A\n-If she shows this to the whole class, w\n+W\n hat \n@@ -3103,16 +3103,20 @@\n imal bid\n+ now\n ? It%E2%80%99s t\n@@ -3179,15 +3179,35 @@\n ent*\n-,\n  and \n-i\n+she can win the $20. I\n t do\n@@ -3241,17 +3241,25 @@\n  that $1\n-.\n+, either!\n  She can\n@@ -3339,16 +3339,18 @@\n loses.%0A%0A\n+**\n If Chris\n@@ -3373,18 +3373,19 @@\n e thing \n-in\n+for\n  FOMO3D \n@@ -3413,16 +3413,18 @@\n ld work.\n+**\n  Of cour\n@@ -3724,17 +3724,20 @@\n erest.%0A%0A\n-S\n+Or s\n uppose t\n@@ -4280,26 +4280,45 @@\n .)%0A%0A\n-Note\n+Finally, let me mention\n  that\n+,\n  while \n-we\n+I\n  hav\n@@ -4442,18 +4442,17 @@\n as best \n-we\n+I\n  can tel\n@@ -4458,23 +4458,182 @@\n ll. \n-For instance, t\n+I've hashed this out on Reddit and I'm fairly sure it's correct, but let me illustrate the point just to be clear: consider the %22dividend%22 that FOMO3D offers, for instance. T\n he d\n@@ -4681,17 +4681,34 @@\n  of bids\n-.\n+, which means that\n  If Chri\n@@ -4734,16 +4734,31 @@\n ing war \n+via commitment \n then the\n@@ -4775,18 +4775,22 @@\n seekers \n-ar\n+will b\n e out co\n@@ -4792,20 +4792,64 @@\n ut cold.\n-%0A%0ATh\n+ Which means nobody should by them.%0A%0AThere is on\n e other,\n@@ -4853,15 +4853,19 @@\n er, \n+**\n crucial\n+**\n , pa\n@@ -4887,15 +4887,15 @@\n egy \n-is that\n+though:\n  who\n@@ -4951,22 +4951,23 @@\n y, they \n-should\n+need to\n  reward \n@@ -4991,12 +4991,144 @@\n me of it\n- \n+. In the spirit of cooperative game theory, **I will pay some of that money to anyone who promotes this post on Steemit before then**\n  :)\n",
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      "body": "FOMO3D is a classic game from game theory, called \"The War of Attrition.\"  To explain the game, let's sketch the version that gets played at Harvard Business School to teach negotiations:\n\nAt HBS, professor Max Bazerman auctions off a normal $20 to the highest bidder, but with one catch: the second-place bidder has to pay too. Consider what you would do in this situation. Max waves a $20 bill, and offers it for sale starting at the low price of $1. Would you bid? \n\n**Of course you would!** $20 for the low price of $1? But, of course, the logic carries you ever upward and--here's the kicker--well-past the value of the $20. To see this, first remember the rules: *the second-highest bidder pays too.* Now consider what you'd do having bid $19 (this section is adapted from an earlier article of mine):\n\nOk, you're the high bidder at $19. If the auction stops now, you’ll get the $20 and make $1. But let’s not forget about Competitive Carl, the second highest bidder. Carl bid $18 right before you bid, and so if the auction ends now he has to pay anyway. For Carl, the choice is to bid for a chance to break even or simply choose to lose $18.\n\nSo Carl bids.\n\nThe high bid is now $20.\n\nIt’s your turn.\n\n*Do you bid $21 for a $20 bill in this situation?*\n\n**Of course you do!**\nIf you don’t bid, you’ll pay $19 and get nothing. If you bid $21 you at least might get the $20!\n\nThat’s the hook: at each turn it feels like you’re paying an additional dollar to get $20. And because of that you’ll bid more than the $20, and so will Carl, and so on. Eventually one of you will have to walk to to the front of the class and pay some crazily high amount for a $20 bill.\n\nIt’s no different at Harvard, where everyone who’s been foolish enough to play this game has gotten a raw deal on the $20. In fact, there are documented cases of business people paying $2000 for the $20 in this game.¹ I’ll quote from Northwestern professor J. Keith Murnhigan, who describes how that escalation happened in a class he taught in Hong Kong:\n\n>“[Even at $400] there was no pause in the bidding at all. Members of the class were screaming for the bidders to stop, but >amid the general tumult, they took no heed. When the bids reached $700 my knees were shaking…\n>When we reached $2,000 they finally stopped bidding. The class was in a total uproar. Everyone was stunned.\n\nIs the best answer not to bid? Well, technically no even though not bidding does just as well as the \"best answer\" (game theory is weird like that). *But a smart contract may allow us to do better still!* To see this, let's imagine that Clever Christina bids first and she knows how to code in Vyper:\n\n**Clever Christina writes an auto-executing smart contract that automatically outbids anyone up $1 billion. She sets it to bid first at $1 then she destroys the private key to revoke the contract.** \n\nIf she shows this to the whole class, what is your optimal bid? It’s to not bid at all. Clever Christina has achieved *commitment*, and it doesn't need to cost her more that $1. She can just refund the the rest of her stake into a contract once the auction closes.\n\nIf Christina did the same thing in FOMO3D it seems that it should work. Of course, in the real world things are a little bit more complex. But it shouldn't change the structure of the solution or the power of the commitment.  So for instance, maybe some people don't know about Christina's commitment? She needs to tell them and publicize it. It's in all of their best interest.\n\nSuppose the devs don't like Christina destroying their game. (Note that the actual devs may not care or might even prefer this outcome--I don't know the devs and given the \"anti-scam\" gloss of the F3D they may have their hearts in the right place.) So long as Christina bids a sufficiently high amount, they'd still be committing to lose money in a bidding war with her. And the Ethereum community could commit to reimbursing Christina for some of the money lost in shutting this down (perhaps for a stake in the rewards, we might add, deviously.)\n\nNote that while we haven't covered all the peculiarities of the F3D, they are all secondary to this core War of Attrition aspect, at least as best we can tell. For instance, the dividend seekers only get money from a lot of bids. If Christina ends the bidding war then the dividend seekers are out cold.\n\nThe other, crucial, part of the strategy is that whoever instantiates this strategy and wins the money, they should reward this post with some of it  :)",
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      "body": "FOMO3D is a classic game from game theory, called \"The War of Attrition.\"  To explain the game, let's sketch the version that gets played at Harvard Business School to teach negotiations:\n\nAt HBS, professor Max Bazerman auctions off a normal $20 to the highest bidder, but with one catch: the second-place bidder has to pay too. Consider what you would do in this situation. Max waves a $20 bill, and offers it for sale starting at the low price of $1. Would you bid? \n\n**Of course you would!** $20 for the low price of $1? But, of course, the logic carries you ever upward and--here's the kicker--well-past the value of the $20. To see this, first remember the rules: *the second-highest bidder pays too.* Now consider what you'd do having bid $19 (this section is adapted from an earlier article of mine):\n\nOk, you're the high bidder at $19. If the auction stops now, you’ll get the $20 and make $1. But let’s not forget about Competitive Carl, the second highest bidder. Carl bid $18 right before you bid, and so if the auction ends now he has to pay anyway. For Carl, the choice is to bid for a chance to break even or simply choose to lose $18.\n\nSo Carl bids.\n\nThe high bid is now $20.\n\nIt’s your turn.\n\n*Do you bid $21 for a $20 bill in this situation?*\n\n**Of course you do!**\nIf you don’t bid, you’ll pay $19 and get nothing. If you bid $21 you at least might get the $20!\n\nThat’s the hook: at each turn it feels like you’re paying an additional dollar to get $20. And because of that you’ll bid more than the $20, and so will Carl, and so on. Eventually one of you will have to walk to to the front of the class and pay some crazily high amount for a $20 bill.\n\nIt’s no different at Harvard, where everyone who’s been foolish enough to play this game has gotten a raw deal on the $20. In fact, there are documented cases of business people paying $2000 for the $20 in this game.¹ I’ll quote from Northwestern professor J. Keith Murnhigan, who describes how that escalation happened in a class he taught in Hong Kong:\n\n>“[Even at $400] there was no pause in the bidding at all. Members of the class were screaming for the bidders to stop, but >amid the general tumult, they took no heed. When the bids reached $700 my knees were shaking…\n>When we reached $2,000 they finally stopped bidding. The class was in a total uproar. Everyone was stunned.\n\nIs the best answer not to bid? Well, technically no even though not bidding does just as well as the \"best answer\" (game theory is weird like that). *But a smart contract may allow us to do better still!* To see this, let's imagine that Clever Christina bids first and she knows how to code in Vyper:\n\n**Clever Christina writes an auto-executing smart contract that automatically outbids anyone up $1 billion. She sets it to bid first at $1 then she destroys the private key to revoke the contract.** \n\nIf she shows this to the whole class, what is your optimal bid? It’s to not bid at all. Clever Christina has achieved *commitment*, and it doesn't need to cost her more that $1. She can just refund the the rest of her stake into a contract once the auction closes.\n\nIf Christina did the same thing in FOMO3D it seems that it should work. Of course, in the real world things are a little bit more complex. But it shouldn't change the structure of the solution or the power of the commitment.  So for instance, maybe some people don't know about Christina's commitment? She needs to tell them and publicize it. It's in all of their best interest.\n\nSuppose the devs don't like Christina destroying their game. (Note that the actual devs may not care or might even prefer this outcome--I don't know the devs and given the \"anti-scam\" gloss of the F3D they may have their hearts in the right place.) So long as Christina bids a sufficiently high amount, they'd still be committing to lose money in a bidding war with her. And the Ethereum community could commit to reimbursing Christina for some of the money lost in shutting this down (perhaps for a stake in the rewards, we might add, deviously.)\n\nNote that while we haven't covered all the peculiarities of the F3D, they are all secondary to this core War of Attrition aspect, at least as best we can tell. For instance, the dividend seekers only get money from a lot of bids. If Christina ends the bidding war then the dividend seekers are out cold.\n\nThe other, crucial, part of the strategy is that whoever instantiates this strategy and wins the money, they should reward this post with some of it  :)",
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