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      "body": "![Currencies.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmcw1H92zgRBuVmLMtvis1A8a6ukeGUAxwTxRZgukcmhvz/Currencies.jpg)\n\nHi everyone,\n\nTomorrow the Kexcoin ICO opens, so this is my final word of advice for potential investors.\n\nYou can read my previous take here: https://steemit.com/kexcoin/@ograf/kexcoin-ico-why-i-won-t-invest-should-you\n\nToday I just want to add the following points:\nI don’t question the opportunity to invest in UK property or the professionalism of Kexgill or the Kexcoin team.\nI don’t say ICO investors or people who buy Kexcoin later will lose all their money.\n\nI just say two things: \nThe potential profits for investors are grossly hyped by the Kexcoin team.\nThe actual profits will make the Kexcoin team rich, not investors.\n\nAnd how do I know that? Just using their own simulation. Using their assumptions, here are the actual payouts in dollars (millions when mentioned) for investors, for Kexgill for managing the properties and to investors. \n\nIf they manage to sell all the 8.5 M Kexcoins at the ICO and with their basis of $4000 per bitcoin:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQma2BbGCVLvN8xJnfvUi8nz4TJWKfLfe5ZuaWsH3yPD2jp/image.png)\n\nIf they manage to sell all the 8.5 M Kexcoins at the ICO and with the current price $3620 per bitcoin:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmejpHiGprxLGaELhEZVuiriXtvqWSdz2JPo8NkKaPBM7V/image.png)\n\nIf they only manage to sell half of the 8.5M Kexcoins at the ICO and with the current price $3620 per bitcoin:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeqzBJAiLEeBNE1Qzfu7psEoyoXwdxLasZP9XXt6QAKmq/image.png)\n\nIf they only manage to sell a third of the 8.5M Kexcoins at the ICO and with the current price $3620 per bitcoin:\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVVsCjBethq6fP4Q2NjpsnZZZdTfumnqNSvHCqPhahC4i/image.png)\n\nAs you can see the total payout over 30 years for investors, depending on the ICO success may vary from $26.95 to $99.18 per Kexcoin. At today's bitcoin price, you would pay about $9 per coin. \nOf course this is an aggregate view. You may sell your Kexcoins much higher on bitshares along the way, but the buyer at a higher price than the total payout will lose. Ultimately, all Kexcoin holders will ever get is the money Kexcoin pays. All the trading back and forth for the 30 years of the project will be a zero sum game.\n\nMy conclusions:\nThis is not such a stellar deal considering the risk \nThey keep talking about how liquid the Kexcoin will be, but who would buy it after the ICO, knowing you forfeit the capital gains distribution? As you can see in the simulations the capital gains amounts to about half the total payout. That means Kexcoin value should drop in half after the 48 hour period post ICO. And who would sell right away considering most of the money is made at the end when the property portfolio is much larger and shared among fewer coin holders?  Finally, what a great idea to destroy your coins when you want to promote liquidity!\nIn all scenarios, the Kexcoin team gets paid hundreds of millions for their work without putting a dollar of their own money on the line (they will get 1M free coins but have never said publicly they would put their own money in the ICO).\nThis in my view is a perversion of capitalism, where the reward should be proportional to the capital you put at risk. Here the model mostly rewards the people who take no risk with their own money.\nYou are most likely able to invest in property with a much better risk/reward profile through REITS or other financial instruments\nThere is NO WAY on earth this team could pull this project were we not in the middle of an ICO boom. No professional lender would ever accept these terms.\nIn other words, they could never get that rich that easily without your money. You could do just as well, if not a lot better without them.\n\nAfter this if you still want to hand them your money, good luck! They surely deserve to be rich more than you do. \n\nPeace out.\n\nPS: I've been called a troll by the Kexcoin team, but they never bothered explaining which of these facts are wrong. \nPPS: You can do the math yourself here:(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K2IOixQtvx_lxIIYcG4i-yTAV8YJhdFB1HXl0mByzFA/edit?usp=sharing) Don't be lazy, or don't complain afterwards.",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "I asked you to please come and post them in the Telegram chat group so everyone can see them and the answers: https://t.me/joinchat/CHwvZEHIZ2FIfDHhm6UAdQ",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "I suggest posting questions in the Telegram chat group, we can answer much quicker in there because we are monitoring it 24/7 https://t.me/joinchat/CHwvZEHIZ2FIfDHhm6UAdQ",
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      "author": "ograf",
      "permlink": "re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-kexcoin-financial-model-demonstration-mock-projections-20170908t201804996z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "It's been 2 days since these questions were asked, will there be any answer before the ICO starts?",
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      "permlink": "re-nedriffle-re-kexcoin-kexcoin-financial-model-demonstration-mock-projections-20170907t121322019z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -552,17 +552,17 @@\n still ma\n-l\n+k\n e money \n",
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      "parent_author": "nedriffle",
      "parent_permlink": "re-ograf-re-nedriffle-re-kexcoin-kexcoin-financial-model-demonstration-mock-projections-20170907t205239088z",
      "author": "ograf",
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      "body": "It is simply astonishing to me that you could honestly offer such a scheme. The norm in a capitalist society is that owners of capital lend it or entrust it with people that will make it fructify. The capital owners get a yield, usually take zero to moderate or even substantial risk on the capital itself. The people managing the money get salaries, or commission, often bonuses according to performance,  a cut of the profit, or a mix of the above.\nThe fact that Kexcoin will take all your capital and only give you back half of the profits is just mind boggling. This is more like extortion than anything...\n\nI've been working in the finance industry for 18 years, professionals find it more and more unacceptable that hedge fund managers can charge 2% of your capital per year and 20% of the returns. This is child's pocket change compared to Kexcoin's model. They take 100% of the capital and 50% of the profits!!\nIn this case the scam is hidden behind the genuinely innovative blockchain technology. Le it be clear to investors, the blockchain aspect of this deal is not bringing them ANY value, it's only allowing Kexcoin to exploit the recent frenzy on the cryptocurrency market to raise a ton of money without any serious regulatory scrutiny. How much cash do you think they would get from professional investors if they had gone through the usual financial market avenues?",
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      "body": "@ograf   +1.  I like the novelty of using a crypto token to facilitate real estate investments.  I just wish the deal offered equal (or better) terms of what is commonly found in traditional markets.",
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      "permlink": "re-ograf-kexcoin-ico-why-i-won-t-invest-should-you-20170908t125910907z",
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      "body": "@ograf thanks for the article.  I couldn't agree with you more.  You've expressed my sentiment better than I could.  I wrote about my take here:  \n\nhttps://steemit.com/crypto/@davidellison/kexcoin-early-innovations-in-cryptocurrency-based-real-estate-portfolios\n\n(Although my projections were much more conservative.  I'm not as familiar with the UK market as Simon Lee, so my projections were based on average property inflation rates in the US.)   \n\nAnd I agree, I really like Chris and the value that he provides with his daily news and commentary show.   However, as an investor / speculator, this is not a good deal when compared to other market offerings.  I find it remarkable that people can get excited over a deal that makes no provision to return their original capital investment.   Why would I invest in a project that only pays out portions of the profit and doesn't return my capital?  An astute investor can participate in a worthy Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) through traditional markets and be guaranteed by law the profits as well as an ownership stake in the properties.  In addition, the profits are distributed (by law) on a pre-tax basis!\n\nI appreciate the desire to be creative with the terms of the deal.  However I'm concerned that it will ultimately discourage crypto adoption because it is less favorable deal for investors than what can be easily found in traditional real estate instruments.",
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      "author": "nedriffle",
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      "body": "You have some very good arguments against this  project.  and it is weird we pay for the buildings but will only get half when they will be sold.",
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      "body": "You may want to read another point of view (mine) before investing:\nhttps://steemit.com/kexcoin/@ograf/kexcoin-ico-why-i-won-t-invest-should-you\n\nJust keep in mind that according to the simulation Kexcoin will pay about $99 for each kexcoin over the 30 years of the project. In today's bitcoin price you will pay roughly $10 for each kexcoin at the ICO. Kexcoin will take 15 years to pay that back, so without even accounting for inflation the real value of your coins will be less that your purchase price for the next 15 years. \nOf course you could still male money selling your coins on the market before then if you find someone willing to pay even more. \nUltimately (and this is according to Kexcoin ), under favorable market conditions and if they raise their $85M target, the total payout to coin holders will be  around $991M over 30 years. Anytime you see the total market cap higher than that, it means the project is just another way to separate dumb investors from their money.",
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      "author": "ograf",
      "permlink": "kexcoin-ico-why-i-won-t-invest-should-you",
      "title": "Kexcoin ICO: why I won’t invest (should you??)",
      "body": "@@ -5315,16 +5315,20 @@\n s early \n+you \n will get\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"kexcoin\",\"ico\",\"bitcoin\",\"bitshares\",\"investment\"],\"users\":[\"marketingmonk\"],\"links\":[\"http://Kexcoin.com\",\"https://steemit-bucket-4a743ec2.s3.amazonaws.com/KexcoinFinancialModel-Demonstration.pdf\",\"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K2IOixQtvx_lxIIYcG4i-yTAV8YJhdFB1HXl0mByzFA/edit?usp=sharing\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\",\"image\":[\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmXzgaVzgRt6mhw7hgyXSUonZH5vZrJVL6hVRHnRrd92U4/Untitled.png\"]}"
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      "author": "ograf",
      "permlink": "kexcoin-ico-why-i-won-t-invest-should-you",
      "title": "Kexcoin ICO: why I won’t invest (should you??)",
      "body": "@@ -1,8 +1,113 @@\n+!%5BUntitled.png%5D(https://steemitimages.com/DQmXzgaVzgRt6mhw7hgyXSUonZH5vZrJVL6hVRHnRrd92U4/Untitled.png)%0A%0A\n Hello al\n",
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      "parent_permlink": "kexcoin",
      "author": "ograf",
      "permlink": "kexcoin-ico-why-i-won-t-invest-should-you",
      "title": "Kexcoin ICO: why I won’t invest (should you??)",
      "body": "Hello all the lovely people, \n\nFirst a quick disclaimer: I like @marketingmonk 's youtube videos, I salute his efforts to educate people about cryptos and I wish him best of luck.\nI learned about Kexcoin from one of his videos, he’s very bullish obviously as he’s a part of it. \n\nFor what it’s worth, here’s my opinion on the project (spoiler : it’s not worth much for investors, especially considering the risk).\n\nSo for those new to Kexcoin, you can check the white paper here: http://Kexcoin.com\n\nFor those who can’t be bothered reading the 18 page-paper, please spare a second to bless the internet, someone out there has done the work for you!\n\nThe Kexcoin ICO aims to raise USD 85M to purchase student rental property in the UK. Kexcoin holders will not directly receive proceeds from the property rental, but half of the profits (=rental income after management expenses and tax) will be used to buy back Kexcoins on the market and destroy them. The other half of the profits will be used to buy additional properties, whose income shall be added to pool and generate more profits. Rinse and repeat every year for 30 years, after which the properties will be sold and capital gains shared amongst remaining coin holders.\nInitially, this sounds great: if you want to hold these coins your initial investment will grow every year as more and more properties are purchased, and fewer coins are in cirulation. With a gross yield of 8-15% as advertised, the unstoppable force of compound interest will make you rich!\n\nAccording to a recent simulation published by Kexcoin (https://steemit-bucket-4a743ec2.s3.amazonaws.com/KexcoinFinancialModel-Demonstration.pdf), even with relatively bullish assumptions about the UK property market, the average investor who participates in the ICO and holds the coins until the end will see an initial $10 investment (for one Kexcoin) grow to $99.2. Not bad, but in 30 years that’s not exactly stellar. \nTheir simulation talks about multiplying your investment by 11.67, but that’s just not in a universe where rules of arithmetic apply.\n  \nHow is that possible with such attractive yield compounded over 30 years? A simple calculation will tell you that their 12% gross yield assumption on these properties will turn your $10 initial investment into roughly $300. So where is the money going?\n\nWell, that’s (in my view, rather disingenuously) not said explicitly in the white paper. The money given by investors will be used to buy properties, but the investors will not own these properties, the project managers will. Then, half of the profits will be used to buy more properties, again fully owned by the project managers. How about the capital gains at the end of the 30 years, when the properties are sold? Only half of these gains will be distributed to ICO participants. The other half? to the project managers!\n\nIf you like this deal,I have a similar one for you: you give me $100M (thanks!) I will use it to buy stocks. The stocks will legally belong to me. Thanks again. \nEvery year, I will let you have half of the dividends, then with the other half I will buy more stocks. They will also belong to me. After 30 years I will sell all these stocks, keep the initial $100M you gave me, and half of the long term capital gains. You can keep the other half of the capital gains. You’re welcome.\n\nIf you still like it, how about we make it $1b? $10b? any taker?\n\nWell, that’s Kexcoin’s business model. Oh, and that doesn’t take into account the dilution. They will issue a total of 10M coins, but keep 1M for the project founders and 0.5M for other expenses. So the initial investor’s money will be diluted as soon as the ICO is complete. The more money they fall short of the $85M target, the bigger the dilution for all ICO participants.\n\nSo if they raise the full $85 as expected, your $10 investment after 30 years will be worth $99.2. If they raise only $20M, your $10 will be worth $20. After 30 years. \n\nDon’t believe me? You certainly should not, I’m just a random person on the internet. \nFeel free to to the maths yourself (their simulation is a good start, or you can play with this version (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K2IOixQtvx_lxIIYcG4i-yTAV8YJhdFB1HXl0mByzFA/edit?usp=sharing). Let me know how it works out for you.\n\nIn conclusion, I am a believer in cryptos as much as I’m a believer in the internet. Back in the late 90’s we could see the same frenzy over internet IPO’s. You could raise millions with any “.com” business idea. Most of these crashed and burned in the early 2000’, but the few that survived changed the world. I believe the same will happen for crypto currencies and blockchains. So, which of these two fates awaits Kexcoin??\n\n\nPS: The additional risks linked to this project (not mentioned in the white paper): \n- Forex risk (british pound devaluation). Could take a huge dent on the returns for non UK-based investors.\n- Using Bitshares: is the platform going to survive for 30 years? If so, are they sure to find each investor after 30 years to give them their money? Will you still know your bitshares account details in 30 years to claim the money?\n- Needing your money early: if you are forced to sell your coins early will get back pennies on your initial investment dollar. Just as an illustration after 10 years of great business according to their optimistic expectations the project will only have repaid back half of initial investment to kexcoin holders.\n-Murphy’s law: their assumptions are very optimistic. Projecting rent increases in the UK of 9% per year for the next 30 years? Really?\n\nPPS: I am not a financial advisor, I couldn’t be if I tried. I do know that salespeople often lie, numbers don’t.",
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  "timestamp": "2017-09-06T19:44:36",
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      "parent_author": "marketingmonk",
      "parent_permlink": "re-davidellison-re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-kexcoin-financial-model-demonstration-mock-projections-20170906t140852906z",
      "author": "ograf",
      "permlink": "re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-kexcoin-financial-model-demonstration-mock-projections-20170906t170554376z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -222,16 +222,27 @@\n ill pay \n+rent worth \n 12%25 of t\n",
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      "author": "ograf",
      "permlink": "re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-kexcoin-financial-model-demonstration-mock-projections-20170906t170554376z",
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      "body": "One more thing about your simulation, you say you are using a 3% estimate rent increase per year, but  your formulas are actually using 9% per year.\n\nThat’s because from year N to year N+1 you consider that your tenants will pay 12% of the property value after inflation (+6% from previous year) and will on top will pay a 3% rent increase (you also add the 12% return on the additional 2.89 properties you will purchase).\n\nGross income on year 2 : 11.47 = 12% x (85 + 5.1 + 2.89) + 0.31\n\nI don’t know the UK student accommodation market, but a 9% increase per year for the next 30 years seems a bit bullish. Even if this is likely to happen (most likely in a higher general inflation environment), you should just say you are using 9% instead of 3%.\n\nCan you confirm that assumption?\n\nThanks!",
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      "author": "davidellison",
      "permlink": "re-ograf-re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-kexcoin-financial-model-demonstration-mock-projections-20170906t141928603z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Agreed.  I should have divided by 10M coins instead of 8.5M.  Your calculations illustrate what I was trying to communicate.  Thanks!",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -227,10 +227,10 @@\n nder\n-'\n s\n+'\n  com\n",
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      "author": "ograf",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -353,16 +353,19 @@\n ent (at \n+USD\n 4000 ass\n",
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      "author": "ograf",
      "permlink": "re-marketingmonk-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-re-davidellison-re-kexcoin-kexcoin-financial-model-demonstration-mock-projections-20170906t134357354z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Assuming your yield and property values assumptions are correct, you actually need to divide the total fiat returned to investors by the total number of coins (keep in mind that 10M totally are issued, including the 1M for founder's compensation and 0.5M for contingencies).\nSo you get a total return of USD 99.176 over 30 years per coin for an investment (at 4000 assumed BTC value) of  10 USD. \nOf course this number is an average and only applies to people eligible to half of the capital gains, meaning people selling before 30 years will get less, people not eligible to the capital gains will get only USD 44.43 per coin.\nChris, can you confirm this calculation?",
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