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      "permlink": "the-first-major-central-bank-crisis",
      "title": "The first major Central Bank Crisis",
      "body": "Today central banks are seemed as a necessary part of the economy and the guardians of financial stability, however this hasn't always been the case. With humble beginnings  around the 17/18th century in Sweden, Netherlands and England first as private institutions their role developed from lending to the government to their current role in which they control interest rates, print currency, stabilize the price of their currency and finance their government as well. \n\nThis transition wasn't as smooth as we tend to think (same with most innovations) and there were a lot of hiccups and mistakes across their history, perhaps none as noteworthy as the Banque Generale of France. On the early 1700s after King Louis XIV died, leaving France heavily indebted due to his expensive taste and previous wars, France was close to bankruptcy. Enter John Law, a Scottish banker and gambler, who had a revolutionary idea, he established the Banque Generale with the backing of the regent, the Duke d'Orleans. He developed a scheme in which he issued paper currency backed by gold, it became a hit right away and helped boost the economy as the French coinage, the Livre was deemed weak and suffered a high devaluation around that time.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWzMkfFo4UbofB5oxuLveDhVRQi5A2YWNXTMpHiLys6BV/image.png)\n\nAfterwards he created another company known as the Mississippi company which had the exclusive rights of all trade with the French Land in the Mississippi river and later on all foreign trade. Since he controlled both the Banque Generale and the Mississippi company, Law, tried a maneuver in which he sold shares of the Mississippi company which was booming for government bills issued by the Banque Generale, this was supposed to help France to raise money and stabilize the economy. The shares for the Mississippi company skyrocketed as well as the price of the government's debt, this led to the frenzy printing of money by the French government as their notes were accepted to repay their debt because they could be used to buy more shares of the Mississippi company.\n\nThe price of the Mississippi company went from 500 Livres to 10,000 in a short period of time, however this bonanza period was just a time bomb, created by the massive printing of money which fueled the value of the Mississippi company, increasing the price of its shares while also inflating the value of the French Government bills. Once the profits from the company started to flow back, they were a lot less than expected, given the excessive valuation created by this self-feeding mechanism. This led to a crash of the Mississippi company, which caused a collapse of the whole economy as people tried to sell their shares back to Livres and converting the paper money back to coins. \n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWh9NdpYARbnbkdG7Z9LG5ndNg1knqaqBH6kzVVYacxr5/image.png)\n\nThe aftermath of this whole scheme was a huge bubble that burst, impoverishing France and becoming a big burden for the French people for decades. It is also one of the reasons why France was very slow to adopt new banking practices and innovations that spread across Europe as most french people mistrusted banks, which didn't make a comeback until the french revolution with the Assignats, 100 years later. \n\nThe morale of the story is that Central Banks weren't perfect when they started and they sure looked very different from what we have today, which even after 300 years of refinement are still flawed. Next time a banker or politician dismiss a new technology (i.e Bitcoin) because it has flaws and its not contemplated in our current central bank system, this story can serve as a good reminder. Central Banks weren't perfect and they are still not perfect.\n\nLinks:\nhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2018/03/06/on-public-private-partnerships-john-law-the-mississippi-co-a-cautionary-tale/#60fc5faa5319\nhttp://www.mshistorynow.mdah.ms.gov/articles/70/john-law-and-the-mississippi-bubble-1718-1720\nhttps://www.wikipedia.org/\n\nTwitter - https://twitter.com/Mvais3",
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      "body": "Yeah... when there are unexpected events occurring on a daily basis that can make the price drop or rise significantly it just guessing.",
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      "body": "Haha, indeed, to many emotions. This is not a prediction though, just a possibility. I am taking it day by day, just something to watch out for.",
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      "body": "Agree with the prediction... Those \"experts\" that \"predict\" the price will either go down or up with no support to their prediction is the same as looking out on the window on a cloudy day and predicting that either if it rains it will rain a lot if it doesn't then it won't rain.",
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      "title": "Bitcoin is not good to function as money... for now",
      "body": "UBS recently released a statement in which they as a company think that *\"bitcoin is neither money nor a viable asset class\"*. It is a pretty strong statement and even more when they are talking about a revolutionary invention that is a threat to their business. I have to say that for the moment I partially agree with UBS in the fact that in its current state Bitcoin is not very good as money.\n\nAlthough some Bitcoin maximalists disagree with UBS, let's be realistic, how far can you go today with using only Bitcoin? Most people that own it have never used it, few merchants/people accept it as payment, the price is highly volatile and even if it has improved a lot recently, transaction costs are still significant. \n\nThere are a lot of negatives and many valid reasons to support UBS in their belief that Bitcoin is not very good as \"money\" but it doesn't mean that it will never be. On the contrary, I am extremely optimistic about its future. Just because it doesn't work now doesn't mean that it will never work, sometimes it can take a while for people to catch up with technology and even longer for society to do. \n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfQsUU59ZHxc6uScLZsgjxPkyhRsuArYGBKm541Fkeg6V/image.png)\n\n\nThere are many examples on how it takes time for technology to spread and compare it to Bitcoin in terms of potential. Regardless of how superior the technology may be, it is difficult to gain adoption when it is  inconvenient to use it in first place. Let's look at cars for example, even if now it is obvious on how they are superior than carriages for transportation, there was a time where this wasn't the case. The concept of a car came across in the 17th century, but it took 200 years and the development of the internal combustion engine, mass production and major improvements for cars to become a thing in the late 19th century and early 1900s. Even then there were a lot of issues, cars were very expensive, it was complicated to drive them, they needed fuel which was difficult to get, there were few roads and a lot of them weren't suitable for cars, the cars weren't reliable and broke down quite often and worse of all they weren't much faster than alternatives like carriages.\n\nThis is why Ford's lawyer told him to forget about cars because they were just a fad, horses have been around for centuries and where here to stay, the state of the cars at the moment wasn't better than the alternative. Fast forward 100 years, we live in a world in which cars are everywhere. This didn't happen by chance, in those years we have spent hundreds of billions on infrastructure for cars (roads, bridges, etc), we can get fuel almost everywhere in the world, the cars are made to be very easy to drive and are relatively cheap, they work for years without breaking down and more important they are faster and safer than any other alternative. In hindsight it was obvious cars were better but without all the investments on infrastructure and developments over the years, we would still be using horses because \"they were more convenient\" at the beginning.\n\nIt took a long time to get to where we are on cars, will it be the same for Bitcoin?\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmV59ELtNypybGo14y4wv3xYhXAMB9cSS99oqDZoCjtSAg/image.png)\n\nThe point with this example is that Bitcoin is currently at that late 19th century moment, it is an interesting and groundbreaking technology but it is only starting, for all the controversy it has stirred, it is only 9 years old. It will most likely spread faster than cars, but we are only at the beginning. Bitcoin is competing in a financial space that has been developing and consolidating for hundreds of years. Just think about all the billions spent on infrastructure for the financial system to ensure that there is communication and compatibility across all institutions around the world, banks have been working with governments (sometimes against) for decades to ensure they are along the same lines and also worked with people and other companies to ensure that they are compatible with our needs. This took years in the making but it doesn't mean that it shouldn't be replaced.\n\nThere are still a lot of things to figure out for Bitcoin, in its current state it is not ready to replace money in our financial system but that doesn't mean it won't. For all the complains and issues that Bitcoin has which makes it unsuitable today, there will be a solution. People don't know how to use it? Then we should make it easier to use and educate people to become more familiar with it. Few merchants/people accept it? It will take some time and money to develop the infrastructure, anyways this was a problem for credit cards not so long ago and they did it. The price is too volatile? I explained this thoroughly in a previous article, but this is just a symptom of being on its early stage, not a characteristic of Bitcoin (https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@mvaisberg/bitcoin-is-not-a-volatile-asset), also this was the same problem that government backed currencies had at their beginning (check out the history of the french livre for example). What about the transaction costs? As the network improves the Tx costs should drop.\n\nThere is nothing new for groundbreaking technology to meet some resistance at the beginning and it is true that for some period of time it will be more inconvenient to use the new technology which is where we are at with Bitcoin but as it happened with cars and many other new technologies at some point it wont not going to be the case anymore, so yeah for now Bitcoin is not good nor convenient to use as money but at some point it can certainly will be. As opposed to criticizing Bitcoin while it is on its baby stages for not being good enough, UBS should be looking not at what Bitcoin is but to what it can be in a few years and how are they going to adapt to it.\n\nLinks:\nhttps://www.coindesk.com/ubs-bitcoin-is-too-unstable-and-limited-to-function-as-money/\n\nTwitter - https://twitter.com/Mvais3",
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