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      "title": "给股票初级者写的信",
      "body": "本文纯属个人意见，如阅不悦大可不阅 ：\n\n主要发表这篇文章是因为近期看到很多的股市败类在招摇撞骗，只想奉劝大家一句“天下没有白吃的午餐，想回报就必须下功夫学习 ”。\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmX1rWZyk1YNexdNKDrPtVCdhpji2doaNMqKD1dZQefb9B/image.png)\n这篇文章主要是针对FA (fundamental analysis)和TA (technical analysis)这两项来区分讨论再总结 ：\n\nFA篇 ：-\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmb2YuF4LXnd8DWnKi9GiUqcSskPy3UMvKpkkWpHtTPd46/image.png)\n很多所谓的FA (fundamental analysis)玩家基本上都不明白什么是FA,靠个简单的P/E或一些特定的ratio就说自己了解FA,但这真的是了解么？\n\n如果一个简单的P/E就能验证出哪支股被低估，那就是愚昧的，因为会看P/E的人比比皆是，为什么那支股票却不升反跌呢？这时阴谋论者又会出来的说，那是因为大买家/庄家故意把价弄低，好让自己能在有个理想的价位进场。\n但试问下，股票到底是什么？有人说股权，有人说做小老板，有人说拿小股息挣钱，有人说炒股能赚钱，但其实看上来股票只是一张三毛钱本钱都不到的纸张，但被炒到十块钱一张市，它就被赋于价值/拥有值，但想靠成为公司股东赚钱，\n试问下公司中的决策有哪项是以小股东的利益为主？公司需要更多的流动资金，所以招股，靠股息过上富裕的生活？可以，但你需要等多久才能回本？\n\n这股中的要决还是离不开一个字 ： “炒”\n\n“炒”这字的含义很深，炒面炒饭炒xx,全部都必须要有主题坐镇，什么是主题？\n\n辣椒炒饭？扬州炒饭？福建面？意大利面？\n\n股票的主题譬如说“转亏为赢啊”，“市场绝对占有权啊\"，”潜力股啊“，”增派股息啊“，”拿到新合约“，”这季盈利暴涨啊“等等等等\n\nFA玩家喜欢用“估值”这两个字来告诉大家这只股票到底合不合适，但估值方式都离不开cash flow, sales,EPS等等话题。\n\n只能在这誊清下：过去是过去，现在是现在，未来是未来。股票的根本价值是在于它的未来，未来会有多可能性，公司经营者也肯定不知道。\n\n所以俗话说”选主题都是智商的博弈“，散户没多大机会选择主题，或者说在选择主题说扮演的角色根本就微不足到，所以能做的只是一路买高炒高，低卖赔钱的方式匆匆离开股局，然后再去打工赚钱，再进来赔光本钱，这样的循环。\n\n公司总裁每年最头疼的一定是”ROE\",想尽法子都会把它给拉高，因为这个是标准。而但看EPS的家伙，告诉你们，通常都可以不看，因为earning太容易被操纵了，在高层做过的朋友应该明白我在说些什么。\n\n说了那么多，大家是不是觉得所谓的FA都没什么用？那你就错了，FA给予我们一项衡量的标准，我们会拿过去和现在比，用于评估一家公司的稳定性，但绝不能是预测性。\n\n市场上的惯例是如果这季的EPS下了，股价肯定暴跌，但没有人去衡量这次的暴跌的EPS究竟是什么，有时只是回到前年的盈利点吧了，那你又可以说去年的盈利点是标准点而不是爆升点么？\n\n生意有生意的周期，生意的周期带动股市的周期，盈利期当然肯定也是股市暴涨期，这是肯定的，因为这是“炒”的原则。而同样的，反方向思维能帮助我们想想这到底是股市的进场去或出场期。\n\n很多人很喜欢用名人效应“譬如巴菲特说”xxxx\",所以我们也跟着“xxx\",但看来其实是愚昧的举止，巴菲特本人没写过书，社交语言能力也不算好，甚至需要上社交课程恶补，他写过的只是年报表分析，却被一些所谓的财经记者拆借出来分析说”股神是怎样怎样的投资“，但这些都被看作是名人效应吧了。\n\n\"Market love Buffett\"，所以基本上他买什么胜利已经至少掌握了50%（我没说是肯定100%），但话说回来，巴菲特价值投资的道理人人懂，但真正怎样看市选股的技巧，又有多少是被愿意共享的？\n\n以前股票界流传出一个故事”一名伟大的作手在补鞋时，听到补鞋童正津津有味的谈到“股市能赚很多钱时”，这名作手马上联想到“连鞋童都懂股票能赚钱，不妙！“回去马上卖了他手上所有的股票，果真，不久股市真的崩盘了\n\n这故事的道理大家就自己领悟吧!\n\n不想浪费时间选股？行！要想简单的FA选股，选择在熊市，选暴跌到长周期（比如52，100）最底价，ROE 5年 又在15%以上，平均每年都有股息且利率高于市面，再等它跌个价位，做好风险措施？就行？不好意思，打错，不一定行。但是我打个比方，一个以前RM 3.5的股票现在的价钱是60sen, 所谓的FA专家说它值”RM 2.4\"(或者你也可以自己学做功课估值,那值不值得买进？如果我们假设这只股跌到0sen(可能吗？），我们的risk就是60sen,target profit RM2 就好，我们的reward 就为1.40,(reward risk 就为1.4:0.60，大约多过2：1),值得买进？大家自己想吧！\n\nTA篇 ：-\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSm3ZN5u4NyCbJiPeutwVDoyP9KKofzVYYQzUjj3JcQCE/image.png)\n看到很多人在网上卖自己的什么”神龙选股系统“，”包涨包赚系统“，”乌龟买卖信号选股“，“什么academy课程的”，这让我回想起年轻时玩外汇的时候，几乎研究完了所有市场上在用的技术指标，更发明了不少指标来炫耀。\n但懂TA的人，就会明白TA是趋势跟踪图；看破TA的人就会明白有TA跟没TA都是一样的。\n\n教你用肉眼看指标 :\n如果MACD bullish sign,在价格上其实就是下价一直下不不是很下，忽然来个高价，那就是bullish sign了。市面上卖的什么“黑马选股”的道理都是差不多那样，加多几个oscillator算法或者volume,就变成股市的杀手锏？吹吧！\n\nK-线图大师？什么看k-线看到眼睛流血领悟到最高进阶的大师？其实k-线给的指示就是，打个比方现在是uptrend的话，这一波up wave没比上一波up wave来的高，但是不是真的weakening sign?自己去思考吧\n\n有人说他的指标能看到庄家吨货（accumulation phase),但我教你，打开你自己的RSI,看在股价是不是一直在RSI大约50来回，这就是他们指标的原理。\n\n给他们蒙对了，就大吹特吹，错了就会选择性的遗忘，因为通常他们推荐的会是一系列的股票，比如说15支，如果对了2-3支，他们就会screenshot到处炫耀，但会选择淡忘其他12-13支股票。\n\n一个有经验的作手通常都喜欢先布局，并使技术指标成形，然后基本上就明白自己是赢定了这盘局，然后选择性出场，就苦了小股民们，而这些循环一直在重复发生，直到有人退出，有人破产，有人顿悟，有人成精，然后再有新人进场，但所剩下的赢家，只是那些不到10%的玩家。\n\n总结：\n\n这篇文章主要是给予一些新手一些股市的经验分享，不论你是老手新手都能借鉴。还有就是别在打破皮包花钱去学习些有的没的讲座会论坛，买系统买指标等等，想学网上大把资源。如果你没付出过就想成功，那我建议您到不如花每周RM3的risk,去买张福利彩票，所不准哪天还能博个100万出来。\n\n有意一起讨论学习的朋友，大可以私下PM我，共勤之，共勉之，祝大家投资愉快！\n\np/s ： 这是本人第一次用Steemit,是在其他读者的推荐下了解到的，本身对它的经营概念赞叹，分享的同时还能拿到公道的回报率，实现真正的理想共享平台。\n\nBy Money Rolling",
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