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      "body": "@@ -9,16 +9,155 @@\n  More:%0A%0A\n+%3Ca href=%22https://www.state.gov/silicon-valley-and-national-security/%22 target=%22_blank%22%3EPompeo on Silicon Valley and National Security%3C/a%3E%0A%0A%0A\n %3Ca href=\n",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -509,16 +509,142 @@\n na%3C/a%3E%0A%0A\n+%0A%3Ca href=%22 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M%22 target=%22_blank%22%3EThiel, Wolfe & DoD On Innovation and US Defense%3C/a%3E%3Ci%3E\n Watch th\n@@ -675,18 +675,24 @@\n 4:00\n-%0A%3Ccenter%3E \n+%3C/i%3E%0A%0A%0A%3Ca href=%22\n http\n@@ -723,24 +723,112 @@\n h?v=\n-y-w2vCIUr6M%3C/center\n+qH5QzuzD01A%22 target=%22_blank%22%3EFormer White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon Talks Candidly About China%3C/a\n %3E\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"links\":[\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/us/politics/house-ndaa-space-force-leave.html\",\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rareearths-army-exclusive-idUSKBN1YF0HU\",\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/servicemens-savings-shouldnt-fund-russia-and-china-11571873025\",\" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH5QzuzD01A\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}",
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      "permlink": "q2b8pc",
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  "timestamp": "2019-12-13T00:57:03",
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{
  "block": 38987188,
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "### Read More:\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/us/politics/house-ndaa-space-force-leave.html\" target=\"_blank\">House Passes $738 Billion Military Bill</a>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rareearths-army-exclusive-idUSKBN1YF0HU\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Army will fund rare earths plant for weapons development</a>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/servicemens-savings-shouldnt-fund-russia-and-china-11571873025\" target=\"_blank\">Servicemen’s Savings Shouldn’t Fund Russia and China</a>\n\nWatch the portion from 17:00 - 24:00\n<center> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M</center>",
      "json_metadata": "{\"image\":[\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/y-w2vCIUr6M/0.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/us/politics/house-ndaa-space-force-leave.html\",\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rareearths-army-exclusive-idUSKBN1YF0HU\",\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/servicemens-savings-shouldnt-fund-russia-and-china-11571873025\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}",
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  "timestamp": "2019-12-13T00:53:30",
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{
  "block": 38957967,
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -19131,16 +19131,18 @@\n estion. \n+%0A%0A\n When wil\n@@ -19163,20 +19163,75 @@\n use \n-begin outlin\n+and mainstream media outlets begin outlining and continuously cover\n ing \n@@ -19247,18 +19247,16 @@\n e of the\n-se\n  human r\n@@ -19275,269 +19275,272 @@\n ions\n-? Will it be hawkish and release a PR barrage to gain the upper hand in the negotiations? Or will it be dovish and keep this ace in hole reserved as leverage in ongoing talks that will shape the global economy and the power balance after the US election is over\n+ taking place in Xianjing and Hong Kong? %0A%0AWill this timeline be ramped up in order to further ongoing negotiations and bolster election cycle perceptions? Or will this issue continue to be swept under the rug in the name of international stability and saving face\n ?%0A%0AI\n@@ -19633,17 +19633,41 @@\n  this.%0A%0A\n-A\n+It is worth noting that a\n ll throu\n@@ -19745,16 +19745,17 @@\n  context\n+,\n  ceasele\n@@ -19826,46 +19826,10 @@\n nemy\n- (isn't China the convenient choice?)\n .\n+ \n %0A%0A##\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"relations\",\"narrative\",\"ocd-resteem\"],\"image\":[\"http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/1947-Vannevar-Bush-LIFE.jpg\",\"https://listverse.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-P022061_Berlin_NS-Kundgebung_im_Lustgarten.jpg\",\"https://public-media.si-cdn.com/filer/a8/1c/a81c95b9-7722-4352-afaf-3af0df4b4817/1024px-approaching_omaha.jpg\",\"https://i.ytimg.com/vi/IcV4pgB5QY0/maxresdefault.jpg\",\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-us-china-who-is-winning-the-tech-war/img/2019-us-china-who-is-winning-the-tech-war-facebook.png\",\"https://d146tiw5d2a33m.cloudfront.net/product_images/6853GOM.jpg?width=328&height=297\",\"https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-EQ786_carrot_ZH_20160706064308.jpg\",\"https://cf-images.us-east-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/769341148/74a4884e-ffaa-4b77-acc0-3d003ba51f24/fa08553f-94b5-434f-8742-25bad9deccd3/1388x782/match/image.jpg\",\"https://s3.amazonaws.com/iexplore_web/images/assets/000/005/491/original/dreamstime_m_21049254.jpg?1442330967\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ4w1SVRHb4RdZTx9WfsfCcZz8qbiigFs17H9A1TcJwJt/image.png\",\"https://miro.medium.com/max/698/1*p_DS8lP7ubfNjtX5G9KSdQ.jpeg\",\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/mYAHPPXmcts/0.jpg\",\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/f5CW6jmZedI/0.jpg\",\"https://i.imgflip.com/1cp85a.jpg\",\"https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2019/07/16/7292a6b2-a73c-11e9-8d5c-2d5b58977904_image_hires_041405.jpg?itok=WzU2475K&v=1563221650\",\"https://cdnph.upi.com/svc/sv/upi/2431481901869/2016/1/ea9989ca00b9d7cb9eb42c5f6b1aa788/Beijing-air-pollution-prompts-red-alert-closes-schools.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZUKkA5ZBjdY31TzHvmr6x3z6mVEkXE3YUh5PCx72NFFN/image.png\",\"https://mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/China-is-charging-Africas-mining-landscape-graph2.jpg\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVfYGNPYFsuQkWUmUeZ6mERSGL17krXdAdDJpd8tUcEas/image.png\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZFVkFzDWnGJv3Ans47bgX6vwmsezwdMBfUfUh5382LSq/image.png\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYqAbnFSze2P55rxS6kgHm4UfQB7KKsxRzayUkTJSc3NR/image.png\"],\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/common-knowledge/@maven360/in-my-lamborghini-speeding-you-a-golf-cart-a-lack-of-common-knowledge\",\"https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/\",\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/25/most-notable-rebuke-china-davos-didnt-come-trump-ally-it-came-george-soros/\",\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/servicemens-savings-shouldnt-fund-russia-and-china-11571873025\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYAHPPXmcts\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5CW6jmZedI\",\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/volatility-you-vixen-why-vol-is-crypto-s-best-friend\",\"https://steemit.com/contrarian-indicators/@maven360/the-gumption-of-growth-the-genesis-of-unicorns-and-the-global-construction-boom\",\"https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-11-27/pboc-issues-warning-as-chinas-household-debt-rises-to-record-101487637.html\",\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-02/china-private-firm-misses-2nd-chance-on-bond-as-contagion-swells\",\"https://steemit.com/trend-analysis/@maven360/living-in-an-artificial-environment-examining-anxiety-surrounding-technology-and-climate-change\",\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/why-you-should-allocate-to-commodites\",\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/why-you-should-allocate-to-crypto-assets\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Watch the portion from 17:00 - 24:00.\n<center> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M</center>",
      "json_metadata": "{\"image\":[\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/y-w2vCIUr6M/0.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}",
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{
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    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -82,16 +82,26 @@\n wadays: \n+%0A%3Ccenter%3E \n https://\n@@ -135,8 +135,17 @@\n 2vCIUr6M\n+%3C/center%3E\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"image\":[\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/y-w2vCIUr6M/0.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}",
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{
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Watch this for a brief glimpse into what Vannevar Bush' institutions are up to nowadays: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M",
      "json_metadata": "{\"image\":[\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/y-w2vCIUr6M/0.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-w2vCIUr6M\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}",
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{
  "block": 38921321,
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -11489,30 +11489,41 @@\n es (\n-see his Open S\n+%3Ca href=%22https://www.opens\n ociety\n- F\n+f\n ound\n@@ -11528,16 +11528,77 @@\n ndations\n+.org/%22 target=%22_blank%22%3Esee his philanthropic organization%3C/a%3E\n ) and is\n@@ -11690,16 +11690,20 @@\n plainly \n+and \n openly s\n@@ -12633,27 +12633,16 @@\n ing \n-directed by the CCP\n+siphoned\n  tow\n@@ -12786,36 +12786,48 @@\n ward\n-, using history as our guide\n+. This is clearly an unsustainable trend\n .%0A%0AS\n@@ -15637,21 +15637,22 @@\n timent%0A%0A\n-Trump\n+Donald\n  needs t\n@@ -15937,24 +15937,25 @@\n onomy%22 story\n+ \n line into a \n@@ -17704,16 +17704,28 @@\n taining \n+millions of \n minoriti\n@@ -17824,16 +17824,43 @@\n resident\n+/Chairman/General Secretary\n  Xi Jing\n@@ -18159,16 +18159,25 @@\n  regime \n+with the \n cover fi\n@@ -18179,16 +18179,23 @@\n er fire \n+needed \n for cont\n@@ -18340,16 +18340,33 @@\n ry will \n+very predictably \n be one o\n@@ -18363,24 +18363,25 @@\n y be one of \n+%22\n the West is \n@@ -18480,17 +18480,20 @@\n hampion.\n- \n+%22 %0A%0A\n We are w\n@@ -18659,16 +18659,21 @@\n forts to\n+wards\n  domesti\n@@ -18750,16 +18750,30 @@\n e CCP's \n+international \n image in\n@@ -18826,39 +18826,109 @@\n hole of \n-human rights violations\n+common knowledge around the CCP's human rights violations in Xinjiang and abroad (see Africa)\n .%0A%0A_____\n",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -2184,19 +2184,95 @@\n ures\n+ and busting many of the industry myths with respect to virgin coin premiums\n .%3C/i%3E%0A%0A%0A\n-~~ \n+---\n %0A%0A%0AI\n",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "compliance",
      "permlink": "the-clean-transaction-premium-btc-regulatory-and-compliance-risk-management",
      "title": "The Clean Transaction History Premium – An Upside To Regulatory Compliance & Risk Management"
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{
  "block": 38893456,
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -767,171 +767,347 @@\n ct, \n-miners and OTC desks already acknowledge a  3-5%25 premium to spot price for newly mined BTC, so this article merely extrapolates where this premium can go from here\n+a small premium to spot price for newly mined BTC currently exists (albeit being for unique reasons and, perhaps, only a temporary phenomena) so this article merely extrapolates where this premium can go from here when applied to a currency that does not employ some of the creation, distribution, and tracking mechanisms that Bitcoin does\n .%0A%3Cb\n",
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      "parent_permlink": "compliance",
      "permlink": "the-clean-transaction-premium-btc-regulatory-and-compliance-risk-management",
      "title": "The Clean Transaction History Premium – An Upside To Regulatory Compliance & Risk Management"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -17678,18 +17678,17 @@\n ke Pompe\n-ii\n+o\n  calls i\n",
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      "parent_permlink": "china-us",
      "permlink": "the-innovation-of-ineptitude-owning-the-technological-battleground",
      "title": "The Innovation Of Ineptitude – Owning The Technological Battleground"
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      "body": "The prevalence of gamification in the products and services we use everyday is creating a dangerous environment where people are willingly releasing information that is vital to their personal security.  All in the name of <a href=\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">convenience.</a> \n\n\nConsidering that virtually all products and services interfacing with payments now have KYC/AML functionality, one could easily see how the data surrounding one's biometrics holds immense value.\n\n<i>Think of KYC/AML (Know Your Customer / Anti Money Laundering) as a screening/filtering process. It verifies individuals' identifies when signing up on that new FinTech App / weeds out individuals who may be affiliated with terrorism, pedophilia, and other less than desirable activities that land you on Uncle Sam's Shit List.</i>\n\n## Unlike passwords, biometrics cannot simply be reset when forgotten or compromised.\n<br>\nSeeing that all KYC/AML providers now market biometrics and liveness checks (which are <a href=\"https://steemit.com/trend-analysis/@maven360/living-in-an-artificial-environment-examining-anxiety-surrounding-technology-and-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\">automated processes</a>, of course)  as the cutting edge in privacy and security, the reality of the situation is that these technologies have already been compromised.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUhEKB3WHdgyE8n9cdgb2dKbaWACDehScAu3eVcktonGt/image.png)\n\nThe biometric data for well over 150 Million Americans has been freely collected by a private company, all in the name of people being able to send funny photos and videos to one another appearing as a much older version of themselves. \n\n<center>https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/J76RFFMEIVAJ3NTZ4YEXMMBJGQ.jpg</center>\n\nAll that was required for people to give up their most essential security apparatus (facial biometrics) was the gamification of visual arts, memes, and the ability to make our family and friends laugh. Talk about a psychological and social hack.\n\nKeep in mind, the data associated with each face that was captured in this game is now being hosted and run through third party infrastructure in AWS, various server farms, and/or several internal databases with unknown protection around them. \n\n## It is safe to assume all of this data is essentially fully exposed and free for anyone with the incentive and technical know-how to acquire.\n<br>\nWhich is to say, bad actors now have the <i>authentic</i> biometrics for 150 Million Americans, and counting. KYC/AML is not effective against social engineering schemes using authentic biometrics. Rather, it is only effective against schemes using fraudulent information, or those containing anomalies that recursive pattern analysis can pick up. \n\nThe reason I even mention that these users are American is because relative to the rest of the world, Americans are extremely wealthy. Cyber criminals view American targets as the biggest fish in the financial sea. To say that FaceApp is sitting on perhaps the most valuable treasure chest of a heavily American biometric dataset would be an understatement.\n\nThis does not even address the fact that regulation is waaay behind the curve. The rhetoric within the regulatory/compliance community still views facial biometric analysis as the next big step in KYC/AML. \n\nA big step forward, I should clarify. They view this as the next logical step in a regulatory/compliance mandate. So if you're still looking to the government and its host of three letter agencies for guidance, then you're sorely mistaken.\n\nThe only way to rationally operate in cyber is to assume you’re always operating within a zero-trust environment. Trust, but verify. More plainly stated, trust nobody.\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSbR8QaCr8A85p7r3GrpefBh5xQTZKY8wYEPQcVi71DbP/image.png)</center>\nIt is ironic that while people are so willing to give up their data for free, on the reciprocal end, they are not likely at all to take advantage of reparations for having their data completely stolen. \n\nOf the 147 million users compromised during the Equifax breach, only 7 million are expected to take what is rightfully theirs in free credit monitoring. Less than 5%, folks.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmddQvvnpjFMAHXu4Ac3wRNwMtKZUBNqKVm6jdu9iFg2u7/image.png)\n\n\n<center>https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/740/177/36a.jpg</center>\n\nQuite amazing stuff, really. After having single-handedly placed 147 million users into a <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/opinion/the-criminal-silicon-valley-is-thriving.html\" target=\"_blank\">dangerous sea full of sharks</a>  looking to harvest identities, siphon funds, infiltrate private data troves, and harvest as much money as possible from \"wealthy Americans\" Equifax is paying virtually no consequence. There is plenty of precedent for this, and unfortunately until public perception comes around on this issue it will perpetuate itself. \n\n What I find more fascinating is that the users themselves are so uneducated and uninterested in the matter that they cannot even bring themselves to accept free credit monitoring from a company that put them directly into this very vulnerable position.\n\nThis goes to show how illiterate people are in caring and managing their cyber hygiene, data, and personal information security. \n\nAnd with respect to narrative infiltration rates and timing indicators, this suggests that the narrative around cyber security, data integrity, distributed ledger technology (blockchain), and other emerging technologies has substantial room to run. \n\n## If only 5% of the general public have the wherewithal to accept meager reparations, we can safely assume that this structural trend has 95% of its runway ahead of it. Digital information and its security is still in its early innings. \n<br>\nOnce this number reaches a higher proportion, we will have an excellent opportunity to sell some stake of our digital assets and convert them to physical assets, in addition to reviewing our bullishness on cybersecurity-related equities. \n\nWe are still early. \n\nHowever, in terms of potential catalysts, there is a fire-storm on the horizon of mainstream narrative shifts in the form of <a href=\"https://www.theepochtimes.com/does-china-have-your-dna_2832301.html\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese companies having the DNA sequences</a> of virtually all US citizens who have submitted to DNA tests.\n\nOnce this knowledge becomes common knowledge, things will shift rapidly. Just ask yourself, how many third party vendors in the form of suppliers, data managers, organizers, IT facilitators, medical processing labs, payment processors, and the like have access to the DNA that you freely chose to send to them? \n\nApply this line of questioning to each and every product and service you have interacted with...\n\nFollow the money and you will be shocked at what \"private\" companies make the supply chain list.\n\n<center>https://www.smarterhobby.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/23andme-reviews.jpg</center>\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRBmAhc7zRUzsrs6Ue2iGFnyWtb4FPgBtVchw2f9bBcaM/image.png)</center>\n<br>\n<center><i>\"The aim of the wise is not to secure pleasure, but to avoid pain.\"</i> \n— Aristotle </center>\n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to clog the inbox of a frenemy.",
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      "title": "Behind The Biometrics – All Fun & Gamification"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "“China-US” relations is a term that has been overly saturated to mean “Trade War” as it relates to the <a href=\"https://steemit.com/common-knowledge/@maven360/in-my-lamborghini-speeding-you-a-golf-cart-a-lack-of-common-knowledge\" target=\"_blank\">common knowledge</a> narrative dictated to us by mainstream media. \n\nHowever, the China-US relationship is the single most important variable in the immeasurably complex equation that is world affairs, and specifically, where things go from here and how it affects billions of daily lives; chief among them, our own daily life.\n\nWe’ve entered a stage where the narrative and sentiment is set to shift very dramatically and rapidly. As such, it is apparent that now is the time to position for this shift, whether this be from a defensive or offensive prerogative. \n\n### TL;DR – Review exposure to big tech, CCP backed organizations, and foreign bonds. Make no mistake, this is an extensive review as these very capital flows have come to be embedded in more investment vehicles than you can initially conceive of.\n\n--- \n\nLet’s begin with a story about the man that helped shaped innovation and its role in the architecture of the American military complex: Vannevar Bush.\n\n<center> http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/1947-Vannevar-Bush-LIFE.jpg </center>\n\nBush received his education in mathematics and electrical engineering at the likes of Tufts, MIT, and Harvard around the time that the US was entering into World War I. As a result of the war, Bush spent the early part of his career working on antisubmarine research as a member of the American Radio and Research Corporation (AMRAD) and National Research Council (NRC).\n\nOnce the war had finished and the funding for both AMRAD and NRC had subsided, Bush became one of the five founders of Raytheon, in addition to becoming a professor of mathematics and electrical engineering at MIT. During his tenure at MIT, he helped to develop the differential analyzer, the first computer of its kind able to solve complex multi variable and differential equations. For this work,  Bush received the Franklin Institute's Louis E. Levy Medal in 1928.\n\nIn 1938, Bush became central to a number of influential organizations driving scientific research and development across the highest channels in the US, including the Carnegie Institute for Science (CIS) and the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA), a predecessor to NASA.\n\nAt the earliest stages of World War II, Bush realized just how advanced the German war machine was becoming (partially due to his integration into the international scientific community), and he warned President FDR that without cooperation between US scientific researchers and US military, the US would soon be outmatched and would lose the war.\n\n<center>https://listverse.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-P022061_Berlin_NS-Kundgebung_im_Lustgarten.jpg</center>\n\nIn what is now a famous note, “OK — FDR” gave Bush the approval to create the National Defense Research Committee (NDRC), and later the  Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD), to accelerate the creation of military technology to combat the Germans. The chief task of the NDRC and OSRD was to coordinate and facilitate information flow across the many military and scientific research channels, while prioritizing research and development resources for ideas that would play the most significant role in winning the war.\n\nOne of the first things these institutions developed were microwave-based radar systems. Compared to their much larger counterparts in long-wave radar systems developed by the US Navy during the 1930s, microwave-based radar systems were small enough to be equipped on US planes. \n\nUp until this point in World War II, German U-boats had been dominating the Atlantic Ocean, virtually cutting of any, and all, supply lines between Western Europe and North America. The German U-boats were months away from starving the British war machine out of oil, food, and basic necessities required to continue the war.\n\nWith microwave-based radar equipped air planes, for the very first time the US Navy and Air Force were able to detect and sink roughly 1/3 of the German U-boat force over the course of 4 weeks. The Germans called all U-boats back in retreat, as a result.\n\nThis left the Atlantic Ocean open for Allied supply lines, and led to the eventual Allied invasion of Western Europe at Normandy. \n\nhttps://public-media.si-cdn.com/filer/a8/1c/a81c95b9-7722-4352-afaf-3af0df4b4817/1024px-approaching_omaha.jpg\n\nThroughout the course of the war, these Bush-created institutions went on to discover how to mass produce Penicillin and how to create the world's first atomic bomb in the Manhattan Project. The significance of these discoveries cannot be overstated. \n\nAfter the war's conclusion with an Allied victory, these very same institutions saw to it that all leading German scientists were brought to the US via Operation Paperclip where the saga of scientific and military cooperation continues.\n\nIt appears that we find ourselves in a time where the rhetoric around the importance of this saga is set to become centerfold.\n\n<center>https://i.ytimg.com/vi/IcV4pgB5QY0/maxresdefault.jpg</center>\n\n---\n\n<i> I want to preface the remainder of this article with a terminology clarification. </i>\n\n<i>Just as with any sovereign nation, it is healthy to distinguish between the government / ruling elite and the everyday person. You would not find it appropriate to compare a LA based construction day laborer with that of a US Senator in DC; likewise, it is not appropriate to lump 1.4 billion people together under the term “China” and “Chinese”.  </i>\n\n### <i>Throughout this article, the terms “CCP”, “China”, and “Chinese” will be directly referring to the ruling elite who control China via the CCP. </i>\n\n---\n\nhttps://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-us-china-who-is-winning-the-tech-war/img/2019-us-china-who-is-winning-the-tech-war-facebook.png\n\n### It is painfully clear that the focal point for competition between China and the US is none other than technological innovation.\n<br>\nWhile China has made it absolutely clear that they will abide by nobody’s rules but their own internally-defined rules, they are openly stating that they will challenge the US and the existing global order across the board on technological innovation: AI, 5G, quantum computing, nuclear, space, bio-engineering, economics, social engineering, take your pick.\n\nSeem a bit sensationalist? Just review what has been happening in the Northwest of China and in Hong Kong. Does this strike you as the actions of a group who give a damn about international opinion?\n\nOf course not. \n\n### The thing that is quintessentially Chinese is one thing, and one thing only: WINNING.\n<br>\nWinning is so deeply embedded into Chinese culture that many Westerners underestimate the ends to which Easterners will go in order to achieve their winning means. Suffice it to say, the concept of participation trophies flies directly in the face of everything that is Chinese.\n\n<center>https://d146tiw5d2a33m.cloudfront.net/product_images/6853GOM.jpg?width=328&height=297</center>\n\nOf course, on a granular level one could very reasonably argue that East and West are identical. In fact, they are. Just as with any human, or living organism, it is sequenced into our DNA to compete, win, to survive. In this sense of the individual, East is just like West when it comes to winning.\n\nHowever, that is not what I am intending to discuss. Rather, we are focusing on the *structural* trends, the developments being done at scale of entire *nation-states* that supersede whatever any individual may have in mind. \n\nThe CCP and the Chinese elite have flipped the script on capitalism and are using the Western version of winning (making money) against itself. The Chinese use access to their massive consumer economy as a carrot to lure in foreign investment, foreign companies, foreign bankers, foreign politicians, and foreign influences. They draw capital into the Chinese sphere of influence, and where it goes from there is the question you ought to be asking yourself.\n\n<center>https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-EQ786_carrot_ZH_20160706064308.jpg</center>\n\nThe Chinese then give the individuals in these groups “special access” to deals that always win. How do they always win? Well, the CCP just redirects capital towards these deals so its virtually impossible to “lose”. Unless, of course, you do not follow through with what the CCP wants you to do in return. <i>In fairness, not all that different from what happens here in the US. But the scale and the speed at which it happens (think ROI) is mind boggling, and effective at luring in more capital.</i>\n\nBribery, across the board, in its most flagrant form.\n\nThe NBA Twitter expose is only the most recent in a long string of public apologies, knee bending ceremonies, and mouth-shutting processes that has seen Chinese capital pocketed by Westerners in the name of the  “winning = make money” game. The favored game of capitalism.\n\nhttps://cf-images.us-east-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/769341148/74a4884e-ffaa-4b77-acc0-3d003ba51f24/fa08553f-94b5-434f-8742-25bad9deccd3/1388x782/match/image.jpg\n\nOf course, the Chinese game of “winning” is so much more than simply “making money”. It includes things like return to world superpower status, end the century of embarrassment, maintain central power, ethnic cleansing and unity, economic dominance , mass propaganda, and the (dis)like. \n\nhttps://s3.amazonaws.com/iexplore_web/images/assets/000/005/491/original/dreamstime_m_21049254.jpg?1442330967\n\n\nThe China-US relations are at an inflection point. There is bipartisan support for a more aggressive, confrontational stance against China among the US ruling elite political class. Yet, the narrative has not yet hit the mainstream because corporate America and Wall Street are still monetizing on China, and these factions own US media.\n\nBut, gross human rights violations against Uighurs is slowly seeping into the mainstream... \n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ4w1SVRHb4RdZTx9WfsfCcZz8qbiigFs17H9A1TcJwJt/image.png)\n\n... and it will become increasingly difficult for the US media vanguards to ignore this narrative as it becomes common knowledge. One would be well within reason to question the incentive for the timing of an impeachment inquiry that is so lopsidedly dominant in US headlines.\n\nIs it because the American president is targeting the cash-cow of so many and there are other storylines much more deserving of our time and attention? Par for the course, I suppose. \n\nWall Street monetizes each and every Chinese IPO in the US and HK market, the MSCI inclusion of Chinese A-Shares is increasing every banker and wealth management firm' AUM, and it goes without saying that one of the primary funding avenues of both Silicon Valley and major media firms is a Chinese one.\n\nJust as we have seen the sentiment shift with regards to the ethics associated with accepting Saudi Arabian money this past year, we will see a major narrative change and sentiment shift associated with accepting Chinese capital.\n\nAnd just as with any other development, it will be a slow leak, until it becomes a major over-correction.\n\n\nhttps://miro.medium.com/max/698/1*p_DS8lP7ubfNjtX5G9KSdQ.jpeg\n\n---\n\n### US Ruling Political Elite Sentiment\n\nGeorge Soros values open societies (see his Open Society Foundations) and is one of the largest proponents in investing in democratic societies. For Soros to so plainly openly state that China is now the <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/25/most-notable-rebuke-china-davos-didnt-come-trump-ally-it-came-george-soros/\" target=\"_blank\">largest threat</a> to democracy across the world is a major narrative change worth noting. \n\nSoros is a major donor within the Democratic party, in addition to being one of the voices among the US ruling elite that carries weight ($$$) to it. \n\nLeading voices inside of the US Military and its arm of capital managers, including the former Head Admiral of the US Navy, are <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/servicemens-savings-shouldnt-fund-russia-and-china-11571873025\" target=\"_blank\">sounding the alarm</a> on the fact that the hard-earned savings of US armed forces, when invested in any China-affiliated companies, are being redirected towards funding Chinese military applications. \n\nImagine that, the funding of Chinese companies is being directed by the CCP towards funding Chinese military technological innovation – the very thing that will become the focal point of China-US relations moving forward, using history as our guide.\n\nStill not convinced we are at an inflection point?\n\nHow about listening to the words of Vice President Mike Pence? I recommend you listen to these two speeches, in their entirety, straight from the horse's mouth. Shots across the bow, to say the least.\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYAHPPXmcts\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5CW6jmZedI\n\n---\n\n### Investment / Growth Management Sentiment\n\nIt's no secret that the only metric that anyone in the wealth management industry cares about is assets under management (AUM). This is where the <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/volatility-you-vixen-why-vol-is-crypto-s-best-friend\" target=\"_blank\">bread is buttered</a>, as a higher AUM translates to a higher commission based income. \n\nWorking hand-in-hand with AUM comes the marketing team which only cares about one storyline: <a href=\"https://steemit.com/contrarian-indicators/@maven360/the-gumption-of-growth-the-genesis-of-unicorns-and-the-global-construction-boom\" target=\"_blank\">growth!</a>\n\nWhile bullish investors, in pursuit of lining their own pockets via increased AUM, have been conditioned to restate the \"MSCI’s inclusion of Chinese A-shares is a megatrend\" storyline, this assessment is overly simplified and avoids all short-to-medium term nuance. \n\nThey will also point out that China's economy is *growing* at stupendous rates and so hopping off of the momentum train now is a fool's errand. However, what they are really doing is extrapolating recent growth trends *linearly* out into the future. Not the most prudent way to analyze and price risk. \n\nOf course, this is all par for the course for any emerging market storyline. Wall Street will monetize any storyline they can until it is no longer feasible.\n\nWith all of the seeds planted among the US ruling political elite, it’s only a matter of time until the common knowledge variable shifts and mainstream opinion becomes one where China and the CCP are not as benign a force as they are currently regarded. This mainstream narrative will directly affect the feasibility for Wall Street to continue this monetization storyline.\n\n<center>https://i.imgflip.com/1cp85a.jpg</center>\n\nThe reality is that in a timeframe more immediate than the MSCI A-shares and domestic consumer growth story, capital inflows into China will taper from rates that we’ve been seeing over the last two decades, and these flows will be redirected to North American shores and the USD. \n\nThe US government is clearly on a track now that looks to re-assert the common knowledge of its dominance financially, militarily, and intellectually. This re-assertion will cut directly into the profits and marketing campaigns of all those in Wall Street and the investment / growth management industry.\n\n---\n### Donald Trump and Xi Jingping Sentiment\n\nTrump needs to win a re-election, while Xi needs to secure his supply lines (food, resources, energy) and shore up his domestic credit markets and struggling bond markets.\n\nIt seems reasonable to expect that team Trump will do everything in its power to ride a \"Trade Deal\" and \"strong US economy\" storyline into a re-election. Upon re-election is where reality will set in, and counter parties will understand who they are dealing with over the next 4 years. \n\nAnd this is where I expect things to become truly volatile. \n\n<center>https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2019/07/16/7292a6b2-a73c-11e9-8d5c-2d5b58977904_image_hires_041405.jpg?itok=WzU2475K&v=1563221650</center>\n\nThis is the time horizon one ought to be positioning now. Look no further than long energy, long security, and long shipping. Trump will have *solidified* himself as the US President (do not anticipate domestic backlash to this presidency to subside any) and the military advisers and economic strategists will have had more time to analyze the plethora of asymmetric moves the White House can take against the CCP. \n\nOn the flipside, Xi will likely have consolidated his own power base and will have re-directed resources into the areas that matter most: food supply, energy supply, reigning in a <a href=\"https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-11-27/pboc-issues-warning-as-chinas-household-debt-rises-to-record-101487637.html\" target=\"_blank\">reckless credit supply,</a> and shoring up a <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-02/china-private-firm-misses-2nd-chance-on-bond-as-contagion-swells\" target=\"_blank\">deteriorating bond market.</a>\n\nThe Trump administration has the flexibility to acquiesce to CCP hardball, if this aligns with his PR campaign of closing deals and restoring jobs leading to a strong election campaign. Should the trade deals or campaign begin to move sideways on the Trump administration, they’ll have to exercise their ace in the hole.\n\n### The ace: putting it out there that the CCP is detaining minorities and harvesting their organs. As Mike Pompeii calls its, “The Stain of the Century”.\n<br>\nPresident Xi Jingping has some optionality on his end, as well. It plays to his benefit to see these trade deal negotiations extended in duration so that he can devote time and resources towards domestic focuses, all while strategizing a domestic and international marketing campaign that provides him and his regime cover fire for continuing operations, as is.\n\nThis marketing campaign has the largest distribution channels on the planet in WeChat, TikTok, etc. and its story will be one of the West is the largest contributor to human rights violations while the CCP is human rights' greatest champion. We are walking on thin ice here, so I will let you draw your own conclusions. It's complicated, to say the least. But the point carries through that Xi will refocus efforts to domestic issues currently bottlenecking their economy all while rebranding the CCP's image in preparation of countering the US' ace in the hole of human rights violations.\n\n____________________________________________________________________________\n## Timing & Catalysts\n### Lever 1 - Human Rights / Magnitsky Act\nInstead of being an if question, it appears to be a when question. When will the White House begin outlining the nature of these human rights violations? Will it be hawkish and release a PR barrage to gain the upper hand in the negotiations? Or will it be dovish and keep this ace in hole reserved as leverage in ongoing talks that will shape the global economy and the power balance after the US election is over?\n\nI suspect the latter, yet politics and domestic elections could throw a curve ball into this.\n\nAll throughout history the only thing that supersedes an internal enemy (in this context ceaseless political power struggles and \"witch hunts\") is an external enemy (isn't China the convenient choice?).\n\n### Lever 2 – Environmental Protection\nThe other major lever that Western governments and lobbyists can pull with regards to bringing public perception around on this anti-CCP agenda is one of the environment. Nobody is more egregious in its environmental impact than China.\n\nWithout going too deeply into this, I’d rather just leave a bread trail for you to do your own research on this matter and draw your own conclusions:\n\nhttps://cdnph.upi.com/svc/sv/upi/2431481901869/2016/1/ea9989ca00b9d7cb9eb42c5f6b1aa788/Beijing-air-pollution-prompts-red-alert-closes-schools.jpg\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZUKkA5ZBjdY31TzHvmr6x3z6mVEkXE3YUh5PCx72NFFN/image.png)</center>\n\n<center>https://mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/China-is-charging-Africas-mining-landscape-graph2.jpg</center>\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVfYGNPYFsuQkWUmUeZ6mERSGL17krXdAdDJpd8tUcEas/image.png)</center>\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZFVkFzDWnGJv3Ans47bgX6vwmsezwdMBfUfUh5382LSq/image.png)</center>\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYqAbnFSze2P55rxS6kgHm4UfQB7KKsxRzayUkTJSc3NR/image.png)</center>\n\nChina is not a leader in environmental protection, they are its biggest antagonist. How's that for an inconvenient truth? Expect this reality to be levered by the West.\n\n### Lever 3 - Economics\n\nThe whole bond market is distorted beyond repair. Hundreds of trillions of dollars across the globe, mispriced. Take down the bond market, and everything levered on top of it will collapse, as well. This is the nuclear option, but the US has exercised the nuclear option multiple times throughout its history as world hegemon.\n\nFor example, Greek bonds just began trading at a negative yield. In 2012, Greek bonds had a 35% yield, now they are at -0.2%. The way to think about it is the higher the yield on a bond, the higher the risk. So in 2012 after the entire nation went bankrupt, Greece had to offer investors a 35% yield (return) just to buy their bonds. Only 7 years later and still financially distraught Greece has bonds that are trading as if they are safer than US treasuries. \n\nThe current complacency in bond markets plays directly into the hands of the US, whereas China is more reliant on a stable bond market as they look to establish the yuan as apart of the IMF world currency basket and continue to lure in foreign investment. Shake up the bond market, shake up the over levered Chinese economy. <i>Of course, all economies are over levered in today's environment, but on a relative basis, China leads the pack in being the most at risk.</i>\n\n____________________________________________________________________________\n\n## Closing Remarks\n\nAll eyes are on China-US in the championship finale match, and it seems naïve to expect either side to continue holding  punches for any extended period of time moving forward. The military industrial complex, economics, and digitally distributed information will all be leveraged in line with the longest storyline throughout modern man’s history: \n\n<center>“communism v democracy”</center>\n\n<center>“socialism v liberalism” </center>\n\nFrom a practical sense, it's certainly time to review your exposure to big tech stocks and bonds. This includes a full review of where your pension, insurance, retirement accounts, trust funds, and personal funds are all currently being stored.\n\nIf you are passively invested in any 401k funds, ETF's, or mutual funds,  I can virtually guarantee most of your holdings are big tech stocks and bonds. US Treasuries are one matter, but holding European or emerging market debt are out of the question.\n\nBonds and equities are correlated to one another, even though Wall Street will tell you otherwise. They operate in a linear world with a backend that running on outdated models. \n\nReview where your money is currently being stored and consider re-allocating and diversifying some of these holdings into overlooked industries that have upward mobility when it comes to mean reversion.\n\nWhile everyone talks about trade wars, what is clear is that the anti-China narrative will only ramp up over the medium term. I imagine this narrative will reach new heights once the Democrats select their running candidate and Trump hits the campaign trail. \n\nThe major winners over the last 5-7 years stand to take a notable hit as Chinese capital retreats and \"woke\" US investors start to retreat from US businesses who bend the knee to Communist China in the name of maintaining profits and international growth metrics.\n\nWhether this general outline becomes common knowledge within the next 12-18 months, or within the subsequent 4 year term, what is evident is that the broad big technology sector valuation is topping. As technological innovation begins to take on a more nation-state, military application flavor this structural trend will have no way of slowing.\n\nThe headwinds have been touted ever since 2009 and VC’s have deflected this perma-bear style prognostication for quite some time. However, capital is now retreating from big tech because of the probability that tech takes on a more nationalistic flavor moving forward. Nationalization is not appetizing from a risk/reward perspective.\n\nAnd the risks to big tech associated now include sovereigns moving forward with examining monopoly structures, data rights, censorship, cybersecurity  IP theft concerns, and as we've discussed, the two largest economies upon the verge of entering very dangerous rhetoric surrounding technology and an innovation arms race.\n\nWhile the morals behind this will be debated all day, the economics make sense. And moving forward it appears that economics are beginning to matter again.\n\nAnd within tech, specifically, this means profits; something that’s been overlooked throughout this cycle.\n\nIn the interim, crypto-assets remain an attractive risk/reward investment vehicle. While harvesting naked profits from big tech positions, it's healthy to frame crypto-assets as call options on the broader tech sector. Size accordingly.\n\nFor further reading, I recommend reading: <a href=\"https://steemit.com/trend-analysis/@maven360/living-in-an-artificial-environment-examining-anxiety-surrounding-technology-and-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\">(1) Energy</a>, <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/why-you-should-allocate-to-commodites\" target=\"_blank\">(2) Commodities </a> and <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/why-you-should-allocate-to-crypto-assets\" target=\"_blank\">(3) Crypto-assets</a>.\n<br>\n\n<i>“Progress in the war against disease depends upon a flow of new scientific knowledge. New products, new industries, and more jobs require continuous additions to knowledge of the laws of nature, and the application of that knowledge to practical purposes. Similarly, our defense against aggression demands new knowledge so that we can develop new and improved weapons. This essential, new knowledge can be obtained only through basic scientific research.”</i> – Vannevar Bush\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to clog the inbox of a frenemy.</i></center>",
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      "body": "@@ -23571,16 +23571,38 @@\n de wars,\n+ what is clear is that\n  the ant\n@@ -23623,30 +23623,46 @@\n ive \n-is picking up big time\n+will only ramp up over the medium term\n . I \n@@ -23725,17 +23725,16 @@\n emocrats\n-s\n  select \n@@ -25372,129 +25372,52 @@\n ain \n-intact for a blow off top as the broad bond and equity markets remain in a bull run, particularly those that are US based\n+an attractive risk/reward investment vehicle\n . Wh\n@@ -25610,19 +25610,17 @@\n reading:\n-%0A%0A%0A\n+ \n %3Ca href=\n@@ -25788,26 +25788,26 @@\n ) Energy%3C/a%3E\n-%0A%0A\n+, \n %3Ca href=%22htt\n@@ -25918,18 +25918,21 @@\n ies %3C/a%3E\n-%0A%0A\n+ and \n %3Ca href=\n@@ -26056,17 +26056,22 @@\n sets%3C/a%3E\n-%0A\n+.%0A%3Cbr%3E\n %0A%0A%3Ci%3E%E2%80%9CPr\n",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -16872,53 +16872,446 @@\n ly, \n-and reigning in a reckless credit supply and \n+reigning in a %3Ca href=%22https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-11-27/pboc-issues-warning-as-chinas-household-debt-rises-to-record-101487637.html%22 target=%22_blank%22%3Ereckless credit supply,%3C/a%3E and shoring up a %3Ca href=%22https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-12-03/two-china-firms-miss-526-million-bond-payments-as-woes-grow-101490015.html?rkey=4jojc%252BU9Dvsngy8ZDEibRfFL%252FE7ci4pKzlXrTd%252B9Z%252FWp3LRByjQzEw%253D%253D?cxg=web&Sfrom=twitter%22 target=%22_blank%22%3E\n dete\n@@ -17332,16 +17332,20 @@\n  market.\n+%3C/a%3E\n %0A%0AThe Tr\n",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "“China-US” relations is a term that has been overly saturated to mean “Trade War” as it relates to the <a href=\"https://steemit.com/common-knowledge/@maven360/in-my-lamborghini-speeding-you-a-golf-cart-a-lack-of-common-knowledge\" target=\"_blank\">common knowledge</a> narrative dictated to us by mainstream media. \n\nHowever, the China-US relationship is the single most important variable in the immeasurably complex equation that is world affairs, and specifically, where things go from here and how it affects billions of daily lives; chief among them, our own daily life.\n\nWe’ve entered a stage where the narrative and sentiment is set to shift very dramatically and rapidly. As such, it is apparent that now is the time to position for this shift, whether this be from a defensive or offensive prerogative. \n\n### TL;DR – Review exposure to big tech, CCP backed organizations, and foreign bonds. Make no mistake, this is an extensive review as these very capital flows have come to be embedded in more investment vehicles than you can initially conceive of.\n\n--- \n\nLet’s begin with a story about the man that helped shaped innovation and its role in the architecture of the American military complex: Vannevar Bush.\n\n<center> http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/1947-Vannevar-Bush-LIFE.jpg </center>\n\nBush received his education in mathematics and electrical engineering at the likes of Tufts, MIT, and Harvard around the time that the US was entering into World War I. As a result of the war, Bush spent the early part of his career working on antisubmarine research as a member of the American Radio and Research Corporation (AMRAD) and National Research Council (NRC).\n\nOnce the war had finished and the funding for both AMRAD and NRC had subsided, Bush became one of the five founders of Raytheon, in addition to becoming a professor of mathematics and electrical engineering at MIT. During his tenure at MIT, he helped to develop the differential analyzer, the first computer of its kind able to solve complex multi variable and differential equations. For this work,  Bush received the Franklin Institute's Louis E. Levy Medal in 1928.\n\nIn 1938, Bush became central to a number of influential organizations driving scientific research and development across the highest channels in the US, including the Carnegie Institute for Science (CIS) and the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA), a predecessor to NASA.\n\nAt the earliest stages of World War II, Bush realized just how advanced the German war machine was becoming (partially due to his integration into the international scientific community), and he warned President FDR that without cooperation between US scientific researchers and US military, the US would soon be outmatched and would lose the war.\n\n<center>https://listverse.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-P022061_Berlin_NS-Kundgebung_im_Lustgarten.jpg</center>\n\nIn what is now a famous note, “OK — FDR” gave Bush the approval to create the National Defense Research Committee (NDRC), and later the  Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD), to accelerate the creation of military technology to combat the Germans. The chief task of the NDRC and OSRD was to coordinate and facilitate information flow across the many military and scientific research channels, while prioritizing research and development resources for ideas that would play the most significant role in winning the war.\n\nOne of the first things these institutions developed were microwave-based radar systems. Compared to their much larger counterparts in long-wave radar systems developed by the US Navy during the 1930s, microwave-based radar systems were small enough to be equipped on US planes. \n\nUp until this point in World War II, German U-boats had been dominating the Atlantic Ocean, virtually cutting of any, and all, supply lines between Western Europe and North America. The German U-boats were months away from starving the British war machine out of oil, food, and basic necessities required to continue the war.\n\nWith microwave-based radar equipped air planes, for the very first time the US Navy and Air Force were able to detect and sink roughly 1/3 of the German U-boat force over the course of 4 weeks. The Germans called all U-boats back in retreat, as a result.\n\nThis left the Atlantic Ocean open for Allied supply lines, and led to the eventual Allied invasion of Western Europe at Normandy. \n\nhttps://public-media.si-cdn.com/filer/a8/1c/a81c95b9-7722-4352-afaf-3af0df4b4817/1024px-approaching_omaha.jpg\n\nThroughout the course of the war, these Bush-created institutions went on to discover how to mass produce Penicillin and how to create the world's first atomic bomb in the Manhattan Project. The significance of these discoveries cannot be overstated. \n\nAfter the war's conclusion with an Allied victory, these very same institutions saw to it that all leading German scientists were brought to the US via Operation Paperclip where the saga of scientific and military cooperation continues.\n\nIt appears that we find ourselves in a time where the rhetoric around the importance of this saga is set to become centerfold.\n\n<center>https://i.ytimg.com/vi/IcV4pgB5QY0/maxresdefault.jpg</center>\n\n---\n\n<i> I want to preface the remainder of this article with a terminology clarification. </i>\n\n<i>Just as with any sovereign nation, it is healthy to distinguish between the government / ruling elite and the everyday person. You would not find it appropriate to compare a LA based construction day laborer with that of a US Senator in DC; likewise, it is not appropriate to lump 1.4 billion people together under the term “China” and “Chinese”.  </i>\n\n### <i>Throughout this article, the terms “CCP”, “China”, and “Chinese” will be directly referring to the ruling elite who control China via the CCP. </i>\n\n---\n\nhttps://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-us-china-who-is-winning-the-tech-war/img/2019-us-china-who-is-winning-the-tech-war-facebook.png\n\n### It is painfully clear that the focal point for competition between China and the US is none other than technological innovation.\n<br>\nWhile China has made it absolutely clear that they will abide by nobody’s rules but their own internally-defined rules, they are openly stating that they will challenge the US and the existing global order across the board on technological innovation: AI, 5G, quantum computing, nuclear, space, bio-engineering, economics, social engineering, take your pick.\n\nSeem a bit sensationalist? Just review what has been happening in the Northwest of China and in Hong Kong. Does this strike you as the actions of a group who give a damn about international opinion?\n\nOf course not. \n\n### The thing that is quintessentially Chinese is one thing, and one thing only: WINNING.\n<br>\nWinning is so deeply embedded into Chinese culture that many Westerners underestimate the ends to which Easterners will go in order to achieve their winning means. Suffice it to say, the concept of participation trophies flies directly in the face of everything that is Chinese.\n\n<center>https://d146tiw5d2a33m.cloudfront.net/product_images/6853GOM.jpg?width=328&height=297</center>\n\nOf course, on a granular level one could very reasonably argue that East and West are identical. In fact, they are. Just as with any human, or living organism, it is sequenced into our DNA to compete, win, to survive. In this sense of the individual, East is just like West when it comes to winning.\n\nHowever, that is not what I am intending to discuss. Rather, we are focusing on the *structural* trends, the developments being done at scale of entire *nation-states* that supersede whatever any individual may have in mind. \n\nThe CCP and the Chinese elite have flipped the script on capitalism and are using the Western version of winning (making money) against itself. The Chinese use access to their massive consumer economy as a carrot to lure in foreign investment, foreign companies, foreign bankers, foreign politicians, and foreign influences. They draw capital into the Chinese sphere of influence, and where it goes from there is the question you ought to be asking yourself.\n\n<center>https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-EQ786_carrot_ZH_20160706064308.jpg</center>\n\nThe Chinese then give the individuals in these groups “special access” to deals that always win. How do they always win? Well, the CCP just redirects capital towards these deals so its virtually impossible to “lose”. Unless, of course, you do not follow through with what the CCP wants you to do in return. <i>In fairness, not all that different from what happens here in the US. But the scale and the speed at which it happens (think ROI) is mind boggling, and effective at luring in more capital.</i>\n\nBribery, across the board, in its most flagrant form.\n\nThe NBA Twitter expose is only the most recent in a long string of public apologies, knee bending ceremonies, and mouth-shutting processes that has seen Chinese capital pocketed by Westerners in the name of the  “winning = make money” game. The favored game of capitalism.\n\nhttps://cf-images.us-east-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/769341148/74a4884e-ffaa-4b77-acc0-3d003ba51f24/fa08553f-94b5-434f-8742-25bad9deccd3/1388x782/match/image.jpg\n\nOf course, the Chinese game of “winning” is so much more than simply “making money”. It includes things like return to world superpower status, end the century of embarrassment, maintain central power, ethnic cleansing and unity, economic dominance , mass propaganda, and the (dis)like. \n\nhttps://s3.amazonaws.com/iexplore_web/images/assets/000/005/491/original/dreamstime_m_21049254.jpg?1442330967\n\n\nThe China-US relations are at an inflection point. There is bipartisan support for a more aggressive, confrontational stance against China among the US ruling elite political class. Yet, the narrative has not yet hit the mainstream because corporate America and Wall Street are still monetizing on China, and these factions own US media.\n\nBut, gross human rights violations against Uighurs is slowly seeping into the mainstream... \n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ4w1SVRHb4RdZTx9WfsfCcZz8qbiigFs17H9A1TcJwJt/image.png)\n\n... and it will become increasingly difficult for the US media vanguards to ignore this narrative as it becomes common knowledge. One would be well within reason to question the incentive for the timing of an impeachment inquiry that is so lopsidedly dominant in US headlines.\n\nIs it because the American president is targeting the cash-cow of so many and there are other storylines much more deserving of our time and attention? Par for the course, I suppose. \n\nWall Street monetizes each and every Chinese IPO in the US and HK market, the MSCI inclusion of Chinese A-Shares is increasing every banker and wealth management firm' AUM, and it goes without saying that one of the primary funding avenues of both Silicon Valley and major media firms is a Chinese one.\n\nJust as we have seen the sentiment shift with regards to the ethics associated with accepting Saudi Arabian money this past year, we will see a major narrative change and sentiment shift associated with accepting Chinese capital.\n\nAnd just as with any other development, it will be a slow leak, until it becomes a major over-correction.\n\n\nhttps://miro.medium.com/max/698/1*p_DS8lP7ubfNjtX5G9KSdQ.jpeg\n\n---\n\n### US Ruling Political Elite Sentiment\n\nGeorge Soros values open societies (see his Open Society Foundations) and is one of the largest proponents in investing in democratic societies. For Soros to so plainly openly state that China is now the <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/25/most-notable-rebuke-china-davos-didnt-come-trump-ally-it-came-george-soros/\" target=\"_blank\">largest threat</a> to democracy across the world is a major narrative change worth noting. \n\nSoros is a major donor within the Democratic party, in addition to being one of the voices among the US ruling elite that carries weight ($$$) to it. \n\nLeading voices inside of the US Military and its arm of capital managers, including the former Head Admiral of the US Navy, are <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/servicemens-savings-shouldnt-fund-russia-and-china-11571873025\" target=\"_blank\">sounding the alarm</a> on the fact that the hard-earned savings of US armed forces, when invested in any China-affiliated companies, are being redirected towards funding Chinese military applications. \n\nImagine that, the funding of Chinese companies is being directed by the CCP towards funding Chinese military technological innovation – the very thing that will become the focal point of China-US relations moving forward, using history as our guide.\n\nStill not convinced we are at an inflection point?\n\nHow about listening to the words of Vice President Mike Pence? I recommend you listen to these two speeches, in their entirety, straight from the horse's mouth. Shots across the bow, to say the least.\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYAHPPXmcts\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5CW6jmZedI\n\n---\n\n### Investment / Growth Management Sentiment\n\nIt's no secret that the only metric that anyone in the wealth management industry cares about is assets under management (AUM). This is where the <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/volatility-you-vixen-why-vol-is-crypto-s-best-friend\" target=\"_blank\">bread is buttered</a>, as a higher AUM translates to a higher commission based income. \n\nWorking hand-in-hand with AUM comes the marketing team which only cares about one storyline: <a href=\"https://steemit.com/contrarian-indicators/@maven360/the-gumption-of-growth-the-genesis-of-unicorns-and-the-global-construction-boom\" target=\"_blank\">growth!</a>\n\nWhile bullish investors, in pursuit of lining their own pockets via increased AUM, have been conditioned to restate the \"MSCI’s inclusion of Chinese A-shares is a megatrend\" storyline, this assessment is overly simplified and avoids all short-to-medium term nuance. \n\nThey will also point out that China's economy is *growing* at stupendous rates and so hopping off of the momentum train now is a fool's errand. However, what they are really doing is extrapolating recent growth trends *linearly* out into the future. Not the most prudent way to analyze and price risk. \n\nOf course, this is all par for the course for any emerging market storyline. Wall Street will monetize any storyline they can until it is no longer feasible.\n\nWith all of the seeds planted among the US ruling political elite, it’s only a matter of time until the common knowledge variable shifts and mainstream opinion becomes one where China and the CCP are not as benign a force as they are currently regarded. This mainstream narrative will directly affect the feasibility for Wall Street to continue this monetization storyline.\n\n<center>https://i.imgflip.com/1cp85a.jpg</center>\n\nThe reality is that in a timeframe more immediate than the MSCI A-shares and domestic consumer growth story, capital inflows into China will taper from rates that we’ve been seeing over the last two decades, and these flows will be redirected to North American shores and the USD. \n\nThe US government is clearly on a track now that looks to re-assert the common knowledge of its dominance financially, militarily, and intellectually. This re-assertion will cut directly into the profits and marketing campaigns of all those in Wall Street and the investment / growth management industry.\n\n---\n### Donald Trump and Xi Jingping Sentiment\n\nTrump needs to win a re-election, while Xi needs to secure his supply lines (food, resources, energy) and shore up his domestic credit markets and struggling bond markets.\n\nIt seems reasonable to expect that team Trump will do everything in its power to ride a \"Trade Deal\" and \"strong US economy\" storyline into a re-election. Upon re-election is where reality will set in, and counter parties will understand who they are dealing with over the next 4 years. \n\nAnd this is where I expect things to become truly volatile. \n\n<center>https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2019/07/16/7292a6b2-a73c-11e9-8d5c-2d5b58977904_image_hires_041405.jpg?itok=WzU2475K&v=1563221650</center>\n\nThis is the time horizon one ought to be positioning now. Look no further than long energy, long security, and long shipping. Trump will have *solidified* himself as the US President (do not anticipate domestic backlash to this presidency to subside any) and the military advisers and economic strategists will have had more time to analyze the plethora of asymmetric moves the White House can take against the CCP. \n\nOn the flipside, Xi will likely have consolidated his own power base and will have re-directed resources into the areas that matter most: food supply, energy supply, and reigning in a reckless credit supply and deteriorating bond market.\n\nThe Trump administration has the flexibility to acquiesce to CCP hardball, if this aligns with his PR campaign of closing deals and restoring jobs leading to a strong election campaign. Should the trade deals or campaign begin to move sideways on the Trump administration, they’ll have to exercise their ace in the hole.\n\n### The ace: putting it out there that the CCP is detaining minorities and harvesting their organs. As Mike Pompeii calls its, “The Stain of the Century”.\n<br>\nPresident Xi Jingping has some optionality on his end, as well. It plays to his benefit to see these trade deal negotiations extended in duration so that he can devote time and resources towards domestic focuses, all while strategizing a domestic and international marketing campaign that provides him and his regime cover fire for continuing operations, as is.\n\nThis marketing campaign has the largest distribution channels on the planet in WeChat, TikTok, etc. and its story will be one of the West is the largest contributor to human rights violations while the CCP is human rights' greatest champion. We are walking on thin ice here, so I will let you draw your own conclusions. It's complicated, to say the least. But the point carries through that Xi will refocus efforts to domestic issues currently bottlenecking their economy all while rebranding the CCP's image in preparation of countering the US' ace in the hole of human rights violations.\n\n____________________________________________________________________________\n## Timing & Catalysts\n### Lever 1 - Human Rights / Magnitsky Act\nInstead of being an if question, it appears to be a when question. When will the White House begin outlining the nature of these human rights violations? Will it be hawkish and release a PR barrage to gain the upper hand in the negotiations? Or will it be dovish and keep this ace in hole reserved as leverage in ongoing talks that will shape the global economy and the power balance after the US election is over?\n\nI suspect the latter, yet politics and domestic elections could throw a curve ball into this.\n\nAll throughout history the only thing that supersedes an internal enemy (in this context ceaseless political power struggles and \"witch hunts\") is an external enemy (isn't China the convenient choice?).\n\n### Lever 2 – Environmental Protection\nThe other major lever that Western governments and lobbyists can pull with regards to bringing public perception around on this anti-CCP agenda is one of the environment. Nobody is more egregious in its environmental impact than China.\n\nWithout going too deeply into this, I’d rather just leave a bread trail for you to do your own research on this matter and draw your own conclusions:\n\nhttps://cdnph.upi.com/svc/sv/upi/2431481901869/2016/1/ea9989ca00b9d7cb9eb42c5f6b1aa788/Beijing-air-pollution-prompts-red-alert-closes-schools.jpg\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZUKkA5ZBjdY31TzHvmr6x3z6mVEkXE3YUh5PCx72NFFN/image.png)</center>\n\n<center>https://mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/China-is-charging-Africas-mining-landscape-graph2.jpg</center>\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVfYGNPYFsuQkWUmUeZ6mERSGL17krXdAdDJpd8tUcEas/image.png)</center>\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZFVkFzDWnGJv3Ans47bgX6vwmsezwdMBfUfUh5382LSq/image.png)</center>\n\nChina is not a leader in environmental protection, they are its biggest antagonist. How's that for an inconvenient truth? Expect this reality to be levered by the West.\n\n### Lever 3 - Economics\n\nThe whole bond market is distorted beyond repair. Hundreds of trillions of dollars across the globe, mispriced. Take down the bond market, and everything levered on top of it will collapse, as well. This is the nuclear option, but the US has exercised the nuclear option multiple times throughout its history as world hegemon.\n\nFor example, Greek bonds just began trading at a negative yield. In 2012, Greek bonds had a 35% yield, now they are at -0.2%. The way to think about it is the higher the yield on a bond, the higher the risk. So in 2012 after the entire nation went bankrupt, Greece had to offer investors a 35% yield (return) just to buy their bonds. Only 7 years later and still financially distraught Greece has bonds that are trading as if they are safer than US treasuries. \n\nThe current complacency in bond markets plays directly into the hands of the US, whereas China is more reliant on a stable bond market as they look to establish the yuan as apart of the IMF world currency basket and continue to lure in foreign investment. Shake up the bond market, shake up the over levered Chinese economy. <i>Of course, all economies are over levered in today's environment, but on a relative basis, China leads the pack in being the most at risk.</i>\n\n---\n\n### Closing Remarks\n\nAll eyes are on China-US in the championship finale match, and it seems naïve to expect either side to continue holding  punches for any extended period of time moving forward. The military industrial complex, economics, and digitally distributed information will all be leveraged in line with the longest storyline throughout modern man’s history: \n\n<center>“communism v democracy”</center>\n\n<center>“socialism v liberalism” </center>\n\nFrom a practical sense, it's certainly time to review your exposure to big tech stocks and bonds. This includes a full review of where your pension, insurance, retirement accounts, trust funds, and personal funds are all currently being stored.\n\nIf you are passively invested in any 401k funds, ETF's, or mutual funds,  I can virtually guarantee most of your holdings are big tech stocks and bonds. US Treasuries are one matter, but holding European or emerging market debt are out of the question.\n\nBonds and equities are correlated to one another, even though Wall Street will tell you otherwise. They operate in a linear world with a backend that running on outdated models. \n\nReview where your money is currently being stored and consider re-allocating and diversifying some of these holdings into overlooked industries that have upward mobility when it comes to mean reversion.\n\nWhile everyone talks about trade wars, the anti-China narrative is picking up big time. I imagine this narrative will reach new heights once the Democratss select their running candidate and Trump hits the campaign trail. \n\nThe major winners over the last 5-7 years stand to take a notable hit as Chinese capital retreats and \"woke\" US investors start to retreat from US businesses who bend the knee to Communist China in the name of maintaining profits and international growth metrics.\n\nWhether this general outline becomes common knowledge within the next 12-18 months, or within the subsequent 4 year term, what is evident is that the broad big technology sector valuation is topping. As technological innovation begins to take on a more nation-state, military application flavor this structural trend will have no way of slowing.\n\nThe headwinds have been touted ever since 2009 and VC’s have deflected this perma-bear style prognostication for quite some time. However, capital is now retreating from big tech because of the probability that tech takes on a more nationalistic flavor moving forward. Nationalization is not appetizing from a risk/reward perspective.\n\nAnd the risks to big tech associated now include sovereigns moving forward with examining monopoly structures, data rights, censorship, cybersecurity  IP theft concerns, and as we've discussed, the two largest economies upon the verge of entering very dangerous rhetoric surrounding technology and an innovation arms race.\n\nWhile the morals behind this will be debated all day, the economics make sense. And moving forward it appears that economics are beginning to matter again.\n\nAnd within tech, specifically, this means profits; something that’s been overlooked throughout this cycle.\n\nIn the interim, crypto-assets remain intact for a blow off top as the broad bond and equity markets remain in a bull run, particularly those that are US based. While harvesting naked profits from big tech positions, it's healthy to frame crypto-assets as call options on the broader tech sector. Size accordingly.\n\nFor further reading, I recommend reading:\n\n\n<a href=\"https://steemit.com/trend-analysis/@maven360/living-in-an-artificial-environment-examining-anxiety-surrounding-technology-and-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\">(1) Energy</a>\n\n<a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/why-you-should-allocate-to-commodites\" target=\"_blank\">(2) Commodities </a>\n\n<a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/why-you-should-allocate-to-crypto-assets\" target=\"_blank\">(3) Crypto-assets</a>\n\n\n<i>“Progress in the war against disease depends upon a flow of new scientific knowledge. New products, new industries, and more jobs require continuous additions to knowledge of the laws of nature, and the application of that knowledge to practical purposes. Similarly, our defense against aggression demands new knowledge so that we can develop new and improved weapons. This essential, new knowledge can be obtained only through basic scientific research.”</i> – Vannevar Bush\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to clog the inbox of a frenemy.</i>",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "china-us",
      "permlink": "the-innovation-of-ineptitude-owning-the-technological-battleground",
      "title": "The Innovation Of Ineptitude – Owning The Technological Battleground"
    }
  ],
  "op_in_trx": 0,
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      "body": "“US-China” relations is a term that has been overly saturated to now mean “Trade War” as it relates to the <a href=\"https://steemit.com/common-knowledge/@maven360/in-my-lamborghini-speeding-you-a-golf-cart-a-lack-of-common-knowledge\" target=\"_blank\">common knowledge</a> narrative dictated to us by mainstream media. \n\nHowever, the US-China relationship is the single most important variable in the immeasurably complex equation that is world affairs, and specifically, where things go from here and how it affects billions of daily lives.\n\nWe’ve entered a new stage where narrative is set to shift very dramatically and rapidly. As such, it is apparent that now is the time to position for this shift.\n\n### TL;DR – Review exposure to big tech, CCP backed organizations, and foreign bonds. Make no mistake, this is an extensive review as tech-driven and CCP-driven capital flows have come to be embedded in more investment vehicles than you can imagine. \n\n--- \n\nLet’s begin with a story about the man that helped shaped innovation and its role in the architecture of the American military complex: Vannevar Bush.\n\n<center> http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/1947-Vannevar-Bush-LIFE.jpg </center>\n\nBush received an education in mathematics and electrical engineering from Tufts, MIT, and Harvard around the time that the US entered into World War I. As a result of the war, Bush spent the early part of his career working on antisubmarine research as a member of the American Radio and Research Corporation (AMRAD) and National Research Council (NRC).\n\nOnce the war had finished and the funding for both AMRAD and NRC had subsided, Bush became one of the five founders of Raytheon, in addition to becoming a professor of mathematics and electrical engineering at MIT. During his tenure at MIT, he helped to develop the differential analyzer, the first computer of its kind able to solve complex multi variable and differential equations. For this work,  Bush received the Franklin Institute's Louis E. Levy Medal in 1928.\n\nIn 1938, Bush became central to a number of influential organizations driving scientific research and development across the highest channels in the US, including the Carnegie Institute for Science (CIS) and the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA), a predecessor to NASA.\n\nAt the earliest stages of World War II, Bush realized just how advanced the German war machine was becoming, and he warned President FDR that without cooperation between US scientific researchers and US military, the US would soon be outmatched and would not win the war.\n\n<center>https://listverse.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-P022061_Berlin_NS-Kundgebung_im_Lustgarten.jpg</center>\n\nIn what is now a famous note, “OK — FDR” gave Bush the approval to create the National Defense Research Committee (NDRC), and later the  Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD), to accelerate the creation of military technology to combat the Germans. The chief task of the NDRC and OSRD was to coordinate and facilitate information flow across the many military and scientific research channels, while prioritizing research and development resources on the ideas that would play the most significant role in winning the war.\n\nOne of the first things these institutions developed were microwave-based radar systems. Versus their much larger counterparts in long-wave radar systems developed by the US Navy during the 1930s, microwave-based radar systems were small enough to be equipped on US planes patrolling the Atlantic Ocean for German U-boats. \n\nUp until this point in World War II, the German U-boats had been dominating the Atlantic Ocean, virtually cutting of any, and all, supply lines between Western Europe and North America. The German U-boats were months away from starving the British war machine out of oil, food, and basic necessities required to continue the war.\n\nWith microwave-based radar equipped air planes, the US Navy and Air Force were able to sink roughly 1/3 of the German U-boat force over the course of 4 weeks. The Germans called all U-boats back in retreat, as a result.\n\nThis left the Atlantic Ocean open for Allied supply lines, and led to the eventual Allied invasion of Western Europe at Normandy. \n\nhttps://public-media.si-cdn.com/filer/a8/1c/a81c95b9-7722-4352-afaf-3af0df4b4817/1024px-approaching_omaha.jpg\n\nThroughout the course of the war, these Bush-created institutions went on to discover how to mass produce Penicillin, and even how to create the world's first atomic bomb in the Manhattan Project. And after the war's conclusion with an Allied victory, these very same institutions saw to it that all leading German scientists were brought to the US via Operation Paperclip.\n\nThe saga continues. And it appears that the saga of innovation lies at a major turning point in the coming years.\n\n<center>https://i.ytimg.com/vi/IcV4pgB5QY0/maxresdefault.jpg</center>\n\n---\n\n<i> I want to preface the remainder of this article with a terminology clarification. </i>\n\n<i>Just as with any sovereign nation, it is healthy to distinguish between the government / ruling elite and the everyday person. You would not find it appropriate to compare a LA based construction day laborer with that of a US Senator; likewise, it is not appropriate to lump 1.4 billion people together under the term “China” and “Chinese”.  </i>\n\n### <i>Throughout this article, the terms “CCP”, “China”, and “Chinese” will be directly referring to the ruling elite who control China via the CCP. </i>\n\n---\n\nhttps://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-us-china-who-is-winning-the-tech-war/img/2019-us-china-who-is-winning-the-tech-war-facebook.png\n\n### It is painfully clear that the focal point for competition between the US and China is none other than technological innovation.\n<br>\nWhile China has made it absolutely clear that they will abide by nobody’s rules but their own internally-defined rules, they are openly stating that they will challenge the US and the existing global order across the board on technological innovation: AI, 5G, quantum computing, nuclear, space, bio-engineering, economics, social engineering, take your pick.\n\nSeem a bit sensationalist? Just review what has been happening in the Northwest of China and in Hong Kong. Does this strike you as the actions of a group who give a damn about international opinion?\n\nOf course not. \n\n### The thing that is quintessentially Chinese is one thing, and one thing only: WINNING.\n<br>\nWinning is so deeply embedded into Chinese culture that many Westerners underestimate the ends to which Easterners will go in order to achieve their winning means. Suffice it to say the concept of participation trophies flies directly in the face of everything that is Chinese.\n\nOf course, on a granular level one could very reasonably argue that East and West are identical. In fact, they are. Just as with any human, or living organism, it is sequenced into our DNA to compete, win, to survive. So, in this sense of the individual, East is just like West when it comes to winning.\n\nHowever, that is not what I am intending to discuss. Rather, we are focusing on the structural trends, the developments being done at scale of entire nation-states that supersede whatever any individual may have in mind. The CCP and the Chinese elite have flipped the script on capitalism and are using the Western version of winning (making money) against itself. \n\nThe Chinese use access to their massive consumer economy as a carrot to lure in foreign investment, foreign companies, foreign bankers, foreign politicians, and foreign influences. \n\n<center>https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-EQ786_carrot_ZH_20160706064308.jpg</center>\n\nThey then give the individuals in these groups “special access” to deals that always win. How do they always win? Well, the CCP just redirects capital towards these deals so its virtually impossible to “lose”. Unless, of course, you do not follow through with what the CCP wants you to do in return. \n\nBribery, across the board, in its most flagrant form.\n\nThe NBA Twitter expose is only the most recent in a long string of public apologies, knee bending ceremonies, and mouth shutting processes that has seen Chinese capital pocketed by Westerners in the name of the  “winning = make money” game. The favored game of capitalism.\n\nhttps://cf-images.us-east-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/769341148/74a4884e-ffaa-4b77-acc0-3d003ba51f24/fa08553f-94b5-434f-8742-25bad9deccd3/1388x782/match/image.jpg\n\nOf course, the Chinese game of “winning” is so much more than simply “making money”. It includes things like return to world superpower status, maintain central power, ethnic cleansing, economic dominance , mass propaganda, and the like. You know, the things that come to the forefront in nearly all empires throughout history.\n\nhttps://s3.amazonaws.com/iexplore_web/images/assets/000/005/491/original/dreamstime_m_21049254.jpg?1442330967\n\n\nThe US-China relations are at an inflection point. There is bipartisan support for a more aggressive, confrontational stance against China among the US political class, yet, the narrative has not yet hit the mainstream because corporate America and Wall Street are still monetizing on China, and these factions own US media.\n\nIt is clear is that US-China relations are set to deteriorate. Gross human rights violations against Uighurs is slowly seeping into the mainstream: \n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ4w1SVRHb4RdZTx9WfsfCcZz8qbiigFs17H9A1TcJwJt/image.png)\n\nIt will become increasingly difficult for the media vanguards to ignore this narrative as it becomes common knowledge. One would be well within reason to question the incentive for the timing of an impeachment inquiry that is so lopsidedly dominant in US headlines.\n\nIs it because the American president is targeting the cash-cow of so many? \n\nWall Street monetizes each and every Chinese IPO in the US market, the MSCI inclusion of Chinese A-Shares is making every banker and wealth management firm money, and it goes without saying that one of the primary funding avenues of Silicon Valley and major media firms is a Chinese one.\n\nJust as we have seen the sentiment shift with regards to the ethics associated with accepting Saudi Arabian money this past year, we will see a major narrative change and sentiment shift associated with accepting Chinese capital.\n\nAnd just as with any other development, it will be a slow leak, until it becomes a major over-correction.\n\n\nhttps://miro.medium.com/max/698/1*p_DS8lP7ubfNjtX5G9KSdQ.jpeg\n\n---\n\n### US Ruling Elite \n\nGeorge Soros values open societies (see his Open Society Foundations) and is one of the largest proponents in investing in democratic societies. For Soros to so plainly openly state that China is now the <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/25/most-notable-rebuke-china-davos-didnt-come-trump-ally-it-came-george-soros/\" target=\"_blank\">largest threat</a> to democracy across the world is a major narrative change worth noting. \n\nSoros is a major donor within the Democratic party, in addition to being one of the voices among the US ruling elite that carries weight ($$$) to it. \n\nLeading voices inside of the US Military and its arm of capital managers, including the former Head Admiral of the US Navy, are <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/servicemens-savings-shouldnt-fund-russia-and-china-11571873025\" target=\"_blank\">sounding the alarm</a> on the fact that the hard-earned savings of US armed forces, when invested in any China-affiliated companies, are being redirected towards funding Chinese military applications. Imagine that, the funding of Chinese companies is being directed by the CCP towards funding Chinese military technological innovation – the very thing that will become the focal point of US-China relations moving forward. \n\nStill not convinced we are at an inflection point?\n\nHow about listening to the words of Vice President Mike Pence? I recommend you listen to these two speeches, in their entirety, straight from the horse's mouth.\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYAHPPXmcts\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5CW6jmZedI\n\n---\n\n### Investment / Growth \n\nWhile bullish investors state the MSCI’s inclusion of Chinese A-Shares over the coming decades will create a majorly bullish trend for investing in China, I think this assessment is overly simplified and avoids all short to medium-term nuance. The next metric that bullish investors state is the fact that China's economy is <a href=\"https://steemit.com/contrarian-indicators/@maven360/the-gumption-of-growth-the-genesis-of-unicorns-and-the-global-construction-boom\n\" target=\"_blank\">growing at stupendous rates</a> and bucking the trend (aka not extrapolating recent trends out into the future in a linear fashion) is a smart move. \n\nWith all of the seeds planted among the US ruling elite, it’s only a matter of time until the common knowledge variable shifts and mainstream opinion becomes one where China and the CCP are not as benign a force as they are currently regarded. This mainstream narrative directly affects the assets under management (AUM) for these investment managers, so they will toe the line only after the shift takes place.\n\nThe reality is that in a timeframe more immediate than the MSCI story, capital inflows into China will taper from rates that we’ve been seeing over the last 10 years, and these flows will be redirected to North American shores and the USD. \n\nThe US government is clearly on a track now that looks to re-assert the common knowledge of its dominance financially, militarily, and intellectually. \n\n---\n### US Election \n\nTrump needs to win a re-election, while Xi needs to secure his supply lines (food, resources, energy) and shore up his domestic credit markets.\n\nIt seems reasonable to expect that team Trump will do everything in its power to ride a \"Trade Deal\" and \"strong\" US economy into a re-election. Upon re-election is where reality will set in, and counter parties will understand who they are dealing with over the next 4 years. \n\nAnd this is where I expect things to become truly volatile. \n\nThis is the time horizon one ought to be positioning now. Look no further than long energy, long security, and long shipping. Trump will have *solidified* himself as the US President (although I do not anticipate domestic backlash to this presidency to subside any) and the military advisers and economic strategists will have had more time to analyze asymmetric moves the White House can take against the CCP. Given the plethora of options, it does not take the brightest tool in the shed to come up with an actionable game plan.\n\nOn the flipside, Xi will likely have consolidated his own power base and will have re-directed resources into the areas that matter most: food supply, energy supply, and reigning in a reckless credit supply.\n\nOn the US end, things are more open ended. The Trump administration has the flexibility to acquiesce to CCP hardball, if this aligns with his PR campaign of closing deals and restoring jobs leading to a strong election campaign. Should the trade deals or campaign begin to move sideways on the Trump administration, they’ll have to exercise their ace in the hole.\n\n### The ace: putting it out there that the CCP is detaining minorities and harvesting their organs. As Mike Pompeii calls its, “The Stain of the Century”.\n<br>\nFolks, the leaders of the free world are equating the leaders of the Communist world to the worst stains of the century. The rhetoric only goes one way from here, and that’s why I suspect the negotiations between the White House and CCP will take much longer than many currently suspect, with the elephant in the room being whether or not the US side decides to make it common knowledge that human rights violations are transpiring, which will unite the international community against the CCP using the Magnitsky Act as cover fire. \n\n____________________________________________________________________________\n## Timing & Catalysts\n### Lever 1 - Human Rights / Magnitsky \nInstead of being an if question, it appears to be a when question. When will the White House begin outlining the nature of these human rights violations? Will it be hawkish and release PR barrage to gain the upper hand in the negotiations? Or will it be dovish and keep this ace in hole reserved as leverage in ongoing talks that will shape the global economy and the power balance after the US election is over?\n\nI suspect the latter, yet politics and domestic elections could throw a curve ball into this.\n\nRegardless, it also seems apparent that the next US election cycle appears to be developing as one of the most nasty, divisive ones in recent memory. All throughout history the only thing that supersedes and internal enemy (in this context politics) is an external enemy (China).\n\nWhether this outline becomes common knowledge within the next 12-18 months or within the subsequent 4 year term, what is evident is that the technology sector is topping.\n\nThe headwinds have been touted ever since 2009 and VC’s have deflected (and been proven right by the market) this perma-bear style prognostication for quite some time.\n\nHowever, the risks associated now include sovereigns moving forward with examining monopoly structures, data rights, censorship, cybersecurity and IP theft concerns, the two largest economies upon the verge of entering very dangerous rhetoric, while the rest of the world watches and will have to pick sides.\n\nAll this while US military willfully leaves it’s legacy world order police role and withdraws troops from the Middle East and NATO outposts. After the Saudi attack, the Saudis paid the US to deploy forces. We’re now a mercenary force. \n\nWhile the morals behind this will be debated all day, the economics make sense. And moving forward it appears that economics are beginning to matter again.\n\nAnd within tech, specifically, this means profits; something that’s a rarity these days.\n\nChart of unprofitable IPOs\n\n### Lever 2 – Environmental Protection\nThe other major lever that Western governments and lobbyists can pull with regards to bringing public perception around on this anti-CCP agenda is one of the environment. Nobody is more egregious in its environmental impact than China.\n\nWithout going too deeply into this, I’d rather just leave a bread trail for you to do your own research on this matter and draw your own conclusions:\n\n-\tVideo of cities being built\n-\tAmount of concrete/cement China uses compared to US\n-\tRaw material usage – disaster in Africa\n-\tRe-routing entire rivers and displacing hundreds of thousands and ruining entire natural ecosystems\n-\thttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/world/asia/mekong-river-dams-china.html\n\nChina is not a leader in environmental protection, they are its biggest antagonist: https://thediplomat.com/2019/10/is-china-still-the-global-leader-on-climate-change/\n\n### Lever 3 - Economics\nBond markets refer to the debts of governments around the world. Currently 15-17 TRILLION in debt, which offers you virtually no interest (yield), meaning they are very vulnerable to losses.\n\nGreek bonds just began trading at a negative yield. In 2012, Greek bonds had a 35% yield, now they are at -0.2%. The way to think about it is the higher the yield on a bond, the higher the risk. So in 2012 after the entire nation went bankrupt, Greece had to offer investors a 35% yield (return) just to buy their bonds. Only 7 years later and still financially distraught Greece has bonds that are trading as if they are safer than US treasuries. \n\nThe whole bond market is distorted, and we are talking hundreds of trillions of dollars (taking into account correlated derivatives). Take down the bond market, and everything levered on top of it will collapse, as well. This is the nuclear option, but the US has exercised the nuclear option multiple times throughout its history as world hegemon.\n\n### How To Position\nIn the interim, crypto-assets remain intact for a blow off top as the broad bond and equity markets remain in a bull run, particularly those that are US based. The cracks are emerging all across the globe (Lebanon, Chile, Argentina, Syria, etc.) and let us not forget the economic (bond) dumpster fire that is Europe.\n\nAll eyes are on US-China in the championship finale match, and it seems naïve to expect the US to hold any punches moving forward beyond the upcoming US election cycle. The military industrial complex and the greatest weapon of all, the USD, will be leveraged in step with the longest ebb and flow throughout man’s history: “communism v democracy.” “socialism v liberalism” \n\nThe next stage of this battle will take place in digital battlefields. \nhttps://www.coindesk.com/tencent-says-libra-would-pose-serious-threat-to-alipay-wechat-pay\n\nFrom a practical sense, it's certainly time to review your exposure to big tech stocks and bonds (including pension, insurance, retirement accounts, etc.). If you are passively invested in any 401k funds, ETF's, mutual funds, etc. I can virtually guarantee most of your holdings are tech stocks (i.e. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet - Google, etc.) and bonds (US treasuries are one thing, but make sure you don't hold any European or Emerging Market bonds). Both bonds and equities are now correlated to each other when most financial \"experts' will tell you that they are uncorrelated, but this is an outdated model.\n\nTo be clear, I am not suggesting you panic and sell off all of your big tech stocks and bonds, rather simply suggesting reviewing where your money is currently being stored and re-allocating and diversifying some of these holdings over into energy stocks as a smart move for the next ~ 5 years. \n\nWhile everyone talks about trade wars, the anti-China narrative is picking up big time. I imagine this narrative will reach new heights once the Dems select their running candidate and Trump hits the campaign trail (only a few months away). The major winners over the last 5-7 years stand to take a notable hit as Chinese capital retreats and \"woke\" US investors start to retreat from US businesses who bend the knee to Communist China in the name of maintaining profits and international growth metrics.\n\nFor reference, I am personally long tech (via cryptocurrencies + career choice) and remain heavily hedged with energy stocks, commodities, and liquid cash. This is my barbell strategy.\n\nHere are some of my pieces I recommend reading:\n\n(1) Commodities \n\n(2) Gumption of Growth\n\n(3) Energy\n\n(4) Cryptoassets\n\n\n\n\n\n<i>“Progress in the war against disease depends upon a flow of new scientific knowledge. New products, new industries, and more jobs require continuous additions to knowledge of the laws of nature, and the application of that knowledge to practical purposes. Similarly, our defense against aggression demands new knowledge so that we can develop new and improved weapons. This essential, new knowledge can be obtained only through basic scientific research.”</i> - VBush",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "So much has been said on the topic of quantitative easing, I find it foolhardy to rehash here. For a *quick* refresher, I recommend revisiting my posts on the topic <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\">here,</a> and <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\">here.</a> \n\nOne of the most significant consequences of quantitative easing is a loss of price discovery. \n\nA healthy marketplace is one that is deeply liquid, has a wide variety of individual actors, opinions, positions, trades, etc. across various timelines, asset classes, strategies, borders, etc. \n\n## In other words, a healthy market is one that allows for all-natural, non-GMO price discovery.\n<br>\nTo use an analogy, quantitative easing is equivalent to a mobster (central banker) walking into a functional casino (healthy marketplace) and taking over the floor.  \n\nExcept what we have in reality is more like a gang of mobsters as the central bank coalition of the Americans, Europeans, Chinese, and Japanese – and let us not forget emerging economies who have feasted on the debt fueled breadcrumbs of their larger cohorts – enter the market at a scale never seen before and dictate who gets to play what game and, more importantly, at what price.\n\nWhat central bankers have done to markets is really no different than what The Rock does in the following scene from the film, <i>Walking Tall</i>:\n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqc2lyHj63A</center>\n\nWho are the guys The Rock is pulverizing? \n\nThose are your non-central bank investors; everyone else within the greater marketplace ecosystem who relies on the ability (or delay thereof) of markets to discover real prices. \n\nInternalizing the rather violent visuals provided above, what is clear is that the marketplace has lost its path. It is unhealthy because it has been commandeered by all-powerful centralists. \n\n## So where has the capital that was traditionally earmarked for a healthy bond and equity marketplace been flowing to instead? \n<br>Many market participants have been forced into making investments in niche sectors, narratives, and assets.\n\n\n<center>https://cbi-blog.s3.amazonaws.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Aggregate-Unicorn-Valuation-over-Time.png</center>\n\n<center>https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20170318_WOC001_hr.png</center>\n\nWhich brings me to...\n\n##  Unicorns and real estate.\n<br>\nWhile I can touch on real estate, I find it's more readily grasped since one rarely hears mention of next month’s rent going down. Not to mention the fact that no matter which city you travel to around the world, you will encounter dozens of tower cranes and construction crews building at a pace that makes everyone a bit nervous. \n\nA very substantial amount of capital that traditionally played in the \"casino\" left the game completely and decided to go into commercial real estate, land development, high-rise construction, tenant improvements, new offices, co-working spaces, you name it. Just take a stroll through your nearest city and you will understand exactly what I mean. It is a very uncomplicated indicator that most recognize, even if they are not aware of why it is happening.\n\nWhat I wish to focus on instead of real estate is the fact that the other major avenue this dislocated capital has taken was/is into the private market to fund companies with one goal in mind: growth.\n\n## Achieving unicorn status. \n<br>\n\"Growth/Scalability\" and market share are the only two heuristics that investors have been able to base their portfolios on for the past decade. \n\nWhy is it that growth has become the ultimate valuation metric? \n\nBecause a growing company creates its own self-fulfilling narrative machine. You hear these self-generated narratives every day on the street, a testament to their influence on market psychology:\n\n<center><i>“Amazon will take over the world. Plain and simple.”</i> </center>\n<center><i>“Google owns all data, is leading driverless cars, and will  lead artificial intelligence.”</i></center>\n<center><i>“Uber has forever changed transportation, and they will disrupt the entire restaurant industry with Uber Eats.”</i></center>\n\nWhile these narratives have taken a breather in recent months, the fact remains that growth is the number one investment criteria across the board since there is no longer any price discovery in the market.\n\nWhen there is no price discovery, there’s limited opportunity to carve out a select strategy, arbitrage mispriced assets, and the like. It then becomes a game of relative performance, and the only way to measure this is to find that which is <i>distinct</i> about an investment. \n\nIs any indicator clearer and more easily measured than growth metrics??? <i>Asking for a friend.</i>\n\nBy the way, just as previous organizations before them these tech behemoths will eventually plateau, consolidate, and mature into a horizontally integrated infrastructure rather than shooting vertically for the moon. Although, we do live in a world where Bezos and the billionaire boys club have nothing they'd rather do than actually land on the moon and Mars, a bit ironic.\n\nSome examples to consider are IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, GE, etc. Heavy hitters who have weathered a cycle or two, perhaps a war, several government regimes, you name it. These matured companies have endured, unlike their younger, unproven counterparts who have only known a casino marketplace that is dominated by a strong man (or four) with a robust plank in hand.\n\nWhile chasing growth for the past decade has been en vogue, as I have mentioned before I have no interest in <a href=\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\" target=\"_blank\">following the herd. \n</a>\n\nWhy not?\n\nBecause it is what most others are doing. Meaning the value in this strategy has been arbitraged out both quantitatively and qualitatively. \n\nOf course, while we have our fair share of individuals pounding the proverbial table on how our market is doomed to crash, the reality is that we will likely see more extreme market distortions prior to any major economic event.\n\n## This is the primary driver behind my thesis that investing in small asset classes with negative sentiment is the most prudent thing any investor looking to catch alpha can position for. Alpha, asymmetry, or whatever buzzword you prefer is the goal here. What it is really is finding the one machine that The Rock has yet to beat to hell with his plank and patiently playing the game.\n<br>\nAnd just as you do with any game based on odds, you do not simply go all in at once, but rather study the game, study your opponents, and look to capitalize when you sense having an advantage.\n\nAs the current environment within the public bond market deteriorates in health and ripples through every sector, especially private equity, capital will flee these overvalued markets in search of relative safety. <i>Relative</i> really being the key word here.\n\n## Where this fleeing capital will likely find safety is in assets that have been beaten down, are undervalued, and stand a reasonable chance at achieving that all-important growth. In other words, they will find safety in assets where a reversion to the mean has an upward trajectory.\n<br>\nIn the end, it boils down to taking the path less travelled and having patience. It does not mean disregarding the crowd and ignoring what they do, but rather paying close attention to the crowd and attempting to anticipate what the crowd will anticipate, how they will behave, and which positions we can enter now ahead of major capital inflows searching for safe harbor during a <a href=\"https://steemit.com/assymetry/@maven360/the-arm-that-twists-the-invisible-hand\" target=\"_blank\">violent storm. </a>\n\nIn terms of timing, I always want to reiterate that nobody knows when or how things will ultimately play out. That is why patience is the single most important skill that any serious investor needs to reflect upon and develop. Put on your position, and then forget you’ve done so. Come check back in a few years and the odds are in your favor you will be pleasantly surprised.\n\nThat said, I do find the chart below very fascinating and perhaps a useful timing indicator to suggest what so many others are already suggesting: we are in the final innings of this credit expansion cycle, business cycle, central bank stimulus of bond market cycle, and the over-arching market psychology of “buy the dip” all converging in a time of US withdrawal from a Bretton Woods organized world order.\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nFascinating times to be alive, to say the least. A major reason why I find people who tell me they are bored so unattractive to be around.\n\nSomething else to consider is 2019 being the year that Uber plans to IPO. Not to mention Palantir, Airbnb, Saudi Aramco, Lyft, Slack, and numerous other big fish. \n\nIn fact, these fish are so big that they appear to be the complete and total opposite of all-natural and non-GMO.\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/ipo.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nSeems a bit frothy, no? Why decide to go public now? Is it to cash out and disperse their risk unto the public? Hmmm….\n \n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/30-yr.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/10-yr.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nThe valuations of the aforementioned companies perform inversely to the two charts above. They have thrived in an environment of declining yields (meaning loose credit and cheap money), yet as rates enter a regime of upward movement the cost of capital will increase, meaning it will become less available.\n\nThis means all of the money that has flown into these ridiculously overvalued companies in the private market will have to rethink where it sits. This rethinking has led them all to believe now is as good a time as ever to liquidate and go public. They want to realize their gains ahead of the coming changes and increase liquid capital on hand while unloading their risk.\n\nDo your research and do not end up being the one left holding the bag.\n\n<i>\"I grew up in this town, people used to walk tall in this town, they wouldn't have traded the mill for a crooked casino and they wouldn't have stood around while drugs were being sold to kids.\" </i> – Chris Vaughn\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"image\":[\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/rqc2lyHj63A/0.jpg\",\"https://cbi-blog.s3.amazonaws.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Aggregate-Unicorn-Valuation-over-Time.png\",\"https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20170318_WOC001_hr.png\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/ipo.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/30-yr.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/10-yr.jpg?w=676\"],\"format\":\"markdown\",\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"tags\":[\"unicorns\",\"ipo\",\"growth\",\"ocd-resteem\"],\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\",\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqc2lyHj63A\",\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\",\"https://steemit.com/assymetry/@maven360/the-arm-that-twists-the-invisible-hand\"]}",
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      "title": "The Gumption Of Growth – The Genesis Of Unicorns & The Global Construction Boom"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "So much has been said on the topic of quantitative easing, I find it foolhardy to rehash here. For a *quick* refresher, I recommend revisiting my posts on the topic <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\">here,</a> and <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\">here.</a> \n\nOne of the most significant consequences of quantitative easing is a loss of price discovery. \n\nA healthy marketplace is one that is deeply liquid, has a wide variety of individual actors, opinions, positions, trades, etc. across various timelines, asset classes, strategies, borders, etc. \n\n## In other words, a healthy market is one that allows for all-natural, non-GMO price discovery.\n<br>\nTo use an analogy, quantitative easing is equivalent to a mobster (central banker) walking into a functional casino (healthy marketplace) and taking over the floor.  \n\nExcept what we have in reality is more like a gang of mobsters as the central bank coalition of the Americans, Europeans, Chinese, and Japanese – and let us not forget emerging economies who have feasted on the debt fueled breadcrumbs of their larger cohorts – enter the market at a scale never seen before and dictate who gets to play what game and, more importantly, at what price.\n\nWhat central bankers have done to markets is really no different than what The Rock does in the following scene from the film, <i>Walking Tall</i>:\n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqc2lyHj63A</center>\n\nWho are the guys The Rock is pulverizing? \n\nThose are your non-central bank investors; everyone else within the greater marketplace ecosystem who relies on the ability (or delay thereof) of markets to discover real prices. \n\nInternalizing the rather violent visuals provided above, what is clear is that the marketplace has lost its path. It is unhealthy because it has been commandeered by all-powerful centralists. \n\n## So where has the capital that was traditionally earmarked for a healthy bond and equity marketplace been flowing to instead? \n<br>Many market participants have been forced into making investments in niche sectors, narratives, and assets.\n\n\n<center>https://cbi-blog.s3.amazonaws.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Aggregate-Unicorn-Valuation-over-Time.png</center>\n\n<center>https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20170318_WOC001_hr.png</center>\n\nWhich brings me to...\n\n##  Unicorns and real estate.\n<br>\nWhile I can touch on real estate, I find it's more readily grasped since one rarely hears mention of next month’s rent going down. Not to mention the fact that no matter which city you travel to around the world, you will encounter dozens of tower cranes and construction crews building at a pace that makes everyone a bit nervous. \n\nA very substantial amount of capital that traditionally played in the \"casino\" left the game completely and decided to go into commercial real estate, land development, high-rise construction, tenant improvements, new offices, co-working spaces, you name it. Just take a stroll through your nearest city and you will understand exactly what I mean. It is a very uncomplicated indicator that most recognize, even if they are not aware of why it is happening.\n\nWhat I wish to focus on instead of real estate is the fact that the other major avenue this dislocated capital has taken was/is into the private market to fund companies with one goal in mind: growth.\n\n## Achieving unicorn status. \n<br>\n\"Growth/Scalability\" and market share are the only two heuristics that investors have been able to base their portfolios on for the past decade. \n\nWhy is it that growth has become the ultimate valuation metric? \n\nBecause a growing company creates its own self-fulfilling narrative machine. You hear these self-generated narratives every day on the street, a testament to their influence on market psychology:\n\n<center><i>“Amazon will take over the world. Plain and simple.”</i> </center>\n<center><i>“Google owns all data, is leading driverless cars, and will  lead artificial intelligence.”</i></center>\n<center><i>“Uber has forever changed transportation, and they will disrupt the entire restaurant industry with Uber Eats.”</i></center>\n\nWhile these narratives have taken a breather in recent months, the fact remains that growth is the number one investment criteria across the board since there is no longer any price discovery in the market.\n\nWhen there is no price discovery, there’s limited opportunity to carve out a select strategy, arbitrage mispriced assets, and the like. It then becomes a game of relative performance, and the only way to measure this is to find that which is <i>distinct</i> about an investment. \n\nIs any indicator clearer and more easily measured than growth metrics??? <i>Asking for a friend.</i>\n\nBy the way, just as previous organizations before them these tech behemoths will eventually plateau, consolidate, and mature into a horizontally integrated infrastructure rather than shooting vertically for the moon. Although, we do live in a world where Bezos and the billionaire boys club have nothing they'd rather do than actually land on the moon and Mars, a bit ironic.\n\nSome examples to consider are IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, GE, etc. Heavy hitters who have weathered a cycle or two, perhaps a war, several government regimes, you name it. These matured companies have endured, unlike their younger, unproven counterparts who have only known a casino marketplace that is dominated by a strong man (or four) with a robust plank in hand.\n\nWhile chasing growth for the past decade has been en vogue, as I have mentioned before I have no interest in <a href=\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\" target=\"_blank\">following the herd. \n</a>\n\nWhy not?\n\nBecause it is what most others are doing. Meaning the value in this strategy has been arbitraged out both quantitatively and qualitatively. \n\nOf course, while we have our fair share of individuals pounding the proverbial table on how our market is doomed to crash, the reality is that we will likely see more extreme market distortions prior to any major economic event.\n\n## This is the primary driver behind my thesis that investing in small asset classes with negative sentiment is the most prudent thing any investor looking to catch alpha can position for. Alpha, asymmetry, or whatever buzzword you prefer is the goal here. What it is really is finding the one machine that The Rock has yet to beat to hell with his plank and patiently playing the game.\n<br>\nAnd just as you do with any game based on odds, you do not simply go all in at once, but rather study the game, study your opponents, and look to capitalize when you sense having an advantage.\n\nAs the current environment within the public bond market deteriorates in health and ripples through every sector, especially private equity, capital will flee these overvalued markets in search of relative safety. <i>Relative</i> really being the key word here.\n\n## Where this fleeing capital will likely find safety is in assets that have been beaten down, are undervalued, and stand a reasonable chance at achieving that all-important growth. In other words, they will find safety in assets where a reversion to the mean has an upward trajectory.\n<br>\nIn the end, it boils down to taking the path less travelled and having patience. It does not mean disregarding the crowd and ignoring what they do, but rather paying close attention to the crowd and attempting to anticipate what the crowd will anticipate, how they will behave, and which positions we can enter now ahead of major capital inflows searching for safe harbor during a <a href=\"https://steemit.com/assymetry/@maven360/the-arm-that-twists-the-invisible-hand\" target=\"_blank\">violent storm. </a>\n\nIn terms of timing, I always want to reiterate that nobody knows when or how things will ultimately play out. That is why patience is the single most important skill that any serious investor needs to reflect upon and develop. Put on your position, and then forget you’ve done so. Come check back in a few years and the odds are in your favor you will be pleasantly surprised.\n\nThat said, I do find the chart below very fascinating and perhaps a useful timing indicator to suggest what so many others are already suggesting: we are in the final innings of this credit expansion cycle, business cycle, central bank stimulus of bond market cycle, and the over-arching market psychology of “buy the dip” all converging in a time of US withdrawal from a Bretton Woods organized world order.\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nFascinating times to be alive, to say the least. A major reason why I find people who tell me they are bored so unattractive to be around.\n\nSomething else to consider is 2019 being the year that Uber plans to IPO. Not to mention Palantir, Airbnb, Saudi Aramco, Lyft, Slack, and numerous other big fish. \n\nIn fact, these fish are so big that they appear to be the complete and total opposite of all-natural and non-GMO.\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/ipo.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nSeems a bit frothy, no? Why decide to go public now? Is it to cash out and disperse their risk unto the public? Hmmm….\n \n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/30-yr.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/10-yr.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nThe valuations of the aforementioned companies perform inversely to the two charts above. They have thrived in an environment of declining yields (meaning loose credit and cheap money), yet as rates enter a regime of upward movement the cost of capital will increase, meaning it will become less available.\n\nThis means all of the money that has flown into these ridiculously overvalued companies in the private market will have to rethink where it sits. This rethinking has led them all to believe now is as good a time as ever to liquidate and go public. They want to realize their gains ahead of the coming changes and increase liquid capital on hand while unloading their risk.\n\nDo your research and do not end up being the one left holding the bag.\n\n<i>\"I grew up in this town, people used to walk tall in this town, they wouldn't have traded the mill for a crooked casino and they wouldn't have stood around while drugs were being sold to kids.\" </i> – Chris Vaughn\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"image\":[\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/rqc2lyHj63A/0.jpg\",\"https://cbi-blog.s3.amazonaws.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Aggregate-Unicorn-Valuation-over-Time.png\",\"https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20170318_WOC001_hr.png\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/ipo.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/30-yr.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/10-yr.jpg?w=676\"],\"format\":\"markdown\",\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"tags\":[\"unicorns\",\"ipo\",\"growth\",\"ocd-resteem\"],\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\",\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqc2lyHj63A\",\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\",\"https://steemit.com/assymetry/@maven360/the-arm-that-twists-the-invisible-hand\"]}",
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      "title": "The Gumption Of Growth – The Genesis Of Unicorns & The Global Construction Boom"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "We hear it referred to so often in the investment world, in the world of sports, and more broadly, in anything that is competitive, has sums of money on the line, and requires high performance in order to be deemed successful. \n\n## <center> What is your edge? </center>\n<br>\n\nEdge is what everyone strives for when it comes to investment. Entire portfolio theories are based upon the team having an edge in some domain of knowledge. \n\nThis is the exact role that hedge funds play in the ecosystem. They specialize in some domain of knowledge and they receive funds from larger funds looking to diversify and gain exposure to areas of the market where they do not have the necessary resources to be competitive. Hedge funds are just outsourced investment capabilities for larger funds to tap into when deemed appropriate, or equally as likely, when pitched properly.\n\nSpeaking of pitches, in today’s environment of cheap credit via low interest rates, meaning <a href=\"https://steemit.com/risk-management/@maven360/what-is-risk\" target=\"_blank\">low risk</a>  of looking like an idiot, hedge fund pitches are predicated and evaluated almost exclusively upon how convincing and dynamic the definition of their edge is. \n\nHow unique is said hedge fund's edge with regards to talent, R&D, network reach, location, reputation, political connections, AUM, et cetera?\n\nAfter all, what other metric besides edge – however arbitrary and intangible a measure it may be – can be used to reasonably estimate the competence of a hedge fund pitching itself as an expert in some domain? You can't. Position size accordingly.\n\nThe thing is that one's perceived edge may not be an edge at all, especially when the person telling you he/she is an expert in some domain of knowledge is in fact a novice, at best.\n\n<center>https://quotefancy.com/media/wallpaper/3840x2160/2025792-Mark-Twain-Quote-It-ain-t-what-you-don-t-know-that-gets-you-into.jpg</center>\n\nIt’s not the things that you know, it’s the things you know that just aren’t so.\n\nIn short, that’s my approach to risk. More often than not, it's also how I tend to determine how much salt I must lend to someone's explanation that they've found their edge based on some arbitrary (often impressive sounding) measure. The more impressive it sounds, the more <a href=\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\" target=\"_blank\">salt</a> I toss into the mix.\n\n<center>https://i.etsystatic.com/6670245/r/il/d6d0f6/505297045/il_570xN.505297045_m5d0.jpg</center>\n\nSome of the more conventional definitions of edge can be summed up as:\n\n\"We team up with geniuses [fill in the blank]\"\n\n- in the physical sciences\n- in mathematics\n- in computer science\n- in health and nutrition\n- in space technologies\n- in oil and gas exploration\n\nAd infinitum \n\nMake no mistake, while there are a number of unqualified hedge funds opening each year, the market has its way of weeding out those who are incompetent. Those who may have a gift when it comes to giving pitches, garnering assets under management, and convincing others that they possess an edge must then perform as advertised.\n\nOtherwise, their investors will begin to doubt how realistic their edge really is and will liquidate their holdings. As we've witnessed over the past few years, there is plenty of doubt to go around within the hedge fund community.\n\n## What, then, is a realistic edge that any retail investor can work towards developing? \n<br>\n\nEspecially when one takes into consideration that there is likely a very competent opponent in the form of a hedge fund (or seven) operating in the exact same domain with much more sophistication and resources, how can the average Joe get some sleep at night?\n\n### Patience. Willpower. Staying power. Liquidity. Conviction.\n<br>\n\nEssentially, the ability to put on a position and then patiently wait for the market to express a similar opinion is a retail investor's most potent weapon.\n\nIt’s showing up early to the party and then awaiting the rest of the guests to show up and pay a more expensive cover than you did getting in for cheap during happy hour. While we have the ability to simply show up and stay, our professional counterparts must continually provide updates to their clients, and more often than not, this requires that they leave the party before it's even begun.\n\nLook no further than the successes of Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger. Their investment strategy is to acquire companies at a discounted valuation, and then hold them forever.\n\nWhat does <i>forever</i> mean, again? Does that mean 5 years, 10 years, 20, or even 40? \n\nNo. They are the epitome of buy and hold. They acquire for cheap and then hold forever. \n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-Q7b-vHY3Q</center>\n\nOf course, Buffett and Munger are investing with hundreds of billions of dollars at their disposal, so the mechanics of their portfolio are different than ours.\n\n## However, there’s a lesson to take from these men and that is patience is the most undervalued principle of all. \n<br>\n As relatively unsophisticated retail investors, our edge comes in our ability to hold onto our convictions without having to answer to any clientele on a quarterly basis. We are the judge, jury, and executioner when it comes to our own portfolio.\n\nWe can express opinions, and then walk away from them to research other areas of knowledge that we may arbitrage. In the meantime, we allow our expressions the most valuable commodity of all to play out: <a href=\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/to-build-anew-or-to-retrofit-money-is-time\" target=\"_blank\">time.</a>\n\nI find that in today’s hyper connected world, nearly every investment strategy is built around minimizing the time required in order to realize the maximum gain. Especially when you begin delving into the world of high frequency trading strategies  that are made increasingly powerful via machine learning algorithms and the largest data sets known to mankind.\n\nSo, as the word <i>sophistication</i> increasingly comes to be associated with a reduction in time, I find the inverse to be equally as true. Longer timelines may not show the fruits of the labor as quickly as their shorter-term counterparts, but they do remove a large portion of risk and uncertainty while also removing a whole hell of competitors from the playing field that we likely do not wish to compete with in their game.\n\nIn the end, while most complain that retail, non-accredited investors are dealt a major disadvantage when entering the gladiator ring that is commonly referred to as markets, I find the inverse to be true. Our lack of sophistication, resources, insider knowledge, expert advisers, and armies of software engineers allows us to reduce the equation down to the fundamentals.\n\n## The only edge we can have is investing based on timelines that are longer than those of all of our competing gladiators.\n<br>\nIt’s not based upon physical strength, intelligence, connections, nor resources. Assuming you’ve properly done your homework and no substantial changes to your thesis become apparent, then putting on a position and then forgetting you’ve done so, only to check back in 5-10 years is an act of prudence. \n\nWhy?\n\nBecause that is the hardest thing to do. Oftentimes, the things we find the most difficult are the things we ought to be doing. And while it is healthy to acknowledge how outgunned we retail investors are in today’s marketplace, would you rather complain about it or find your niche and maximize the likelihood that you profit from this edge?\n\nMy focus is on the latter, and it’s an iterative process. While every mechanism about the market changes incessantly over time, the one constant is human nature. More specifically, how human nature tends to undervalue the power of time. Buffet often alludes to this via his emphasis on the circle of competence:\n\n<i> \"I stay within that circle and I don't worry about things that are outside that circle. Defining what your game is, where you're going to have an edge, is enormously important.\" </i>\n\nFind assets that are undervalued relative to others. As we’ve witnessed lately, currencies are fluctuating, as are interest rates, as are political regimes, as are national and global zeitgeists. Taking these into account, it appears an appetizing time and place to play a game where you express an out-of-favor opinion, buckle in for the long haul, and then observe people and events with a sense of humor.\n\n<i> \"Patience is not the ability to wait but the ability to keep a good attitude while waiting.\"</i>\n– Joyce Meyer\n<br>\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"investment\",\"ocd-resteem\",\"finance\",\"investing\"],\"image\":[\"https://quotefancy.com/media/wallpaper/3840x2160/2025792-Mark-Twain-Quote-It-ain-t-what-you-don-t-know-that-gets-you-into.jpg\",\"https://i.etsystatic.com/6670245/r/il/d6d0f6/505297045/il_570xN.505297045_m5d0.jpg\",\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/H-Q7b-vHY3Q/0.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/risk-management/@maven360/what-is-risk\",\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-Q7b-vHY3Q\",\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/to-build-anew-or-to-retrofit-money-is-time\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "parent_permlink": "edge",
      "permlink": "the-timeliness-of-edge-defining-the-retail-investor-s-primary-advantage",
      "title": "The Timeliness Of Edge – Defining the Retail Investor's Primary Advantage"
    }
  ],
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  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:43:03",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "This post will provide a run-down on how you can enter the cryptocurrency marketplace and initiate positions in various cryptocurrencies. I realize this material may not be new to my Steemit followers, but to others just entering the space this is my recommendation to you.\n\n## Step 1 - Secure Your Computer, Cell Phone, and Email\n\nPrior to moving any money, you first must review the security of your devices, your online presence, and the applications you operate on.\n\n ### <center> Computer </center>\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/security.jpg?w=1226 </center>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.avast.com/en-us/index</center>\">Avast</a> has a quality product suite that you may want to consider if you suspect you are vulnerable here.\n\n ### <center> Cell Phone </center>\nFor most, cell phones are the weakest link in the chain. While this is a pigeon hole I encourage you all to pursue further on your own, here is what I suggest.\n\n##### 1.    Lock Your Phone With Passcode\n##### 2.    Do Not Store Sensitive Information (i.e. financial login credentials)  \n##### 3.    Set Up Remote Wipe (i.e. Lost My iPhone) \n##### 4.    Avoid Third Party Apps \n##### 5.    Avoid Jailbreaking Your Phone\n##### 6.    Update Operating Systems \n##### 7.    Do Not Use Public Wifi \n##### 8.    Protect Your Phone Number\n<br>\nNowadays, cell phones are a portal to nearly all of our most personal information, so being vigilant about how you use your phone will reduce your chances of falling victim to fraud.\n\n\n ### <center> Online Presence / Applications </center>\nFor most of you here on Steem, you are well-aware that the most important information is your personal information. That is why companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, etc. are so richly valued. They have all of your information. I recommend you review your account settings and profiles at each and every online portal you interact with. Strive for the most stringent options and delete any information you would not want available to the public.\n\nOne of the most important portals to secure is your email. Make sure that your email cannot be easily accessed by anyone other than you. Enabling 2-phase authorization is a good start. You may also want to consider ditching your old email accounts (especially if you run on Yahoo, AOL, Outlook, etc.) and create a new, secure one. For this, I recommend Proton.\n\n<center> https://protonmail.com/ </center>\n\n<center> https://media.licdn.com/media/AAEAAQAAAAAAAAYRAAAAJDM4ZTBiMjlkLWEyOTUtNDgzNi05ZDA5LTU2ODc2N2YxMjhhZA.png </center>\n\nI also recommend that you download the Google Authenticator App to your cell phone and use this in place of SMS authentication. \n\n## Step 2 - Create A Coinbase Account\n\nCoinbase is the best place to begin your crypto investing. Using your secure email, create an account.\n\n<center> https://www.coinbase.com </center>\n\n<center> https://i0.wp.com/www.bitcoin-millionaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Coinbase-homepage.jpg?resize=1080%2C517&ssl=1 </center>\n\nLink Coinbase to your designated bank account and transfer your fiat ($USD) into your Coinbase account. This will take roughly 5 days to clear your bank.\n\n\n## Step 3 - Sign into GDAX\nGDAX is Coinbase's exchange where you can set <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/executing-a-trade-with-limit-orders-investing\">limit orders</a> , whereas Coinbase itself only allows market orders. \n\nUnless you are desperately eager to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum or Litecoin, I recommend you enter your limit orders on GDAX. Sign into GDAX using your Coinbase credentials. \n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/gdax.jpg?w=3292</center> \n\nOnce logged into GDAX, click \"Deposit\" in the top-left. \n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/deposit.jpg?w=219&h=243 </center>\n\nTransfer USD funds from your Coinbase account into GDAX.\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/fund.jpg?w=376&h=309 </center>\n\nDefine the price you are willing to buy your Bitcoin or Ethereum at, and then submit a <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/executing-a-trade-with-limit-orders-investing\">limit order.</a> Once the order is filled, remove the funds from the GDAX exchange back into your Coinbase wallet.\n\n<i> The reason I do not say buy Litecoin is because Litecoin has a limited market for purchasing other crypto assets. That is not to say that you should not invest in Litecoin itself, but rather using Litecoin to purchase other cryptos is not nearly as easy as using Bitcoin or Ethereum. </i>\n\n## Step 3 - Create An Account at an Alt-Coin Exchange\nOnce you've accustomed yourself to transferring funds from your bank to Coinbase/GDAX and purchasing Bitcoin or Ethereum, (and/or Litecoin) then it is time to create an account at a cryptocurrency exchange that offers more than these 3 cryptos.\n\nThere are all sorts of exchanges, but I recommend you take a look at Bittrex or Bitfinex. \n\n<center> https://www.bittrex.com/ </center>\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/bittrex.jpg?w=1600 </center>\n\n<center> https://www.bitfinex.com/ </center>\n\n<center>  https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/bitfinex.png?w=2048  </center>\n\nOnce you've setup an account at one of these exchanges, you can transfer Bitcoin or Ethereum into your exchange wallet from your Coinbase wallet.\n\n### Note: Make sure to always check the URL of the website you are on, and the address of the generated wallet. There are scammers out there using phishing tactics to gain the login credentials and private wallet keys of crypto investors.\n<br>\nExecuting the transfer between Coinbase and the exchange (Bittrex/Bitfinex) will require you to login to both your Coinbase account and your Bittrex/Bitfinex account simultaneously. \n\nIn order to generate your Bittrex/Bitfinex wallet address, sign into your account and then click \"Wallet\".\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/bittrex-wallet1.jpg?w=1360 </center>\n\nInside your wallet area, you will have the ability to generate an address (if not already provided).\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/address.jpg?w=1396 </center>\n\nMeanwhile, in Coinbase, simply click on \"Accounts\" and then click \"Send\" next to your Bitcoin or Ethereum Wallet. You will see the following screen: \n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/coinbase.jpg?w=2290</center>\n\nTake the wallet address (yellow highlight) from your Bittrex/Bitfinex account and copy it into your Recipient Address in your Coinbase account. Review the wallet address in its entirety and then click submit. You will have a chance to review all of the information prior to your final order.\n\n### Note: For your first transaction, only transfer a small amount to confirm everything is properly working. Once you confirm everything is working you can send more funds as you see fit.\n<br>\nNow that you have funded your Bittrex/Bitfinex account with Bitcoin or Ethereum, you can begin buying other crypto assets. \n\n\n## Closing Comments:\nAt this point in time, the process laid out above seems to be the safest, most appropriate way to begin investing in cryptocurrency. While there other considerations to account for, you now know the basics on how to purchase crypto.\n\nThe next area I recommend you research is wallets and how to securely store your crypto assets once you've purchased them. Trezor has hardware wallets that protect some of the better known coins, but there are others that have unique wallet situations you have to research on your own. \n\n<center>https://trezor.io/</center>\n\nThe good news is that this research is only a quick search away. Happy crypto investing!\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n#### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies</a>",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "cryptocurrency",
      "permlink": "how-to-invest-in-cryptocurrency-crypto-investing",
      "title": "How To Securely Invest In Cryptocurrency – A Beginner's Guide"
    }
  ],
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  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:40:33",
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{
  "block": 38693469,
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "<i> “Using volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is 1) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or 2) the risk of inadequate return.” – Charlie Munger</i>\n \n<center>https://assets.blackrock.com/uk-retail-assets/cache-1494609248000/images/media-bin/web/retail/emea/uk/chart-of-the-week/vix-volatility-index.jpg</center>\n\n<center><a href=\" https://assets.blackrock.com/uk-retail-assets/cache-1494609248000/images/media-bin/web/retail/emea/uk/chart-of-the-week/vix-volatility-index.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Source</a></center>\n\nThe chart above is commonly misunderstood. You see, the VIX is often referred to as the “fear gauge”, the indicator that reflects perceived market volatility. With the VIX at record lows, many market pundits are pounding the table that volatility will wreak havoc on the markets in 2018 and the VIX will spike. \n\nThis may very well prove true, but I will explain how regardless of this index and general market volatility, the crypto market stands to benefit as institutional money enters the space.\n\n### For the sake of understanding, it is also worth explaining what the VIX index really is. Many believe the VIX accurately reflects the market’s perception of volatility. However, what the index is really is a compilation of pricing on near-dated options; 30 days to be exact. It is an index of volatility on 1 month until expiration at the money puts and calls on stocks in the major indices. \n<br>\n\nSo, rather than considering all of the complexities in the market that may lead to volatility (i.e. geopolitical, social, macroeconomic, natural disaster, etc.) all VIX takes into account is what the pricing looks like for near-dated options in the public equity market. \n\nNot such a reliable indicator then, is it? Like any other indicator it is useful when combined with a more holistic view, but on its own it’s practically worthless.\n\n### Let’s now dive into how VIX and, more importantly, volatility (or lack thereof) plays directly into a bullish scenario for the crypto markets. \n<br>\n\nWhile the stock prices for US Banks like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Citigroup have all been rising this past year their trading desks have all been posting double digit declines. \n\nWhy is this? Because volatility is at such a low extreme in the equity and bond markets so there is little room to navigate as a trader. There is little room to manipulate the markets and let momentum and public narrative work its wonders, in other words.\n\nTraders love volatility because it allows market conditions to over-swing one way, oversold, and then soon thereafter revert the other direction towards overbought.  Traders live and breathe these markets and understand better than anyone else when these conditions exist, and they profit from them at the expense of the people who are easily shaken from positions and buy at tops. \n\nThe fact that the best traders in the world are posting double digit losses tells me one thing: these trading desks are starving for volatility. They need volatility to stack the cards in their favor, to gain an advantage over us retail investors. \n\n<center> ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdfNXPnSr6XrP4cJFt3kPjUUVEqSNMWgZVJJX9QY9a7rk/image.png)</center>\n\n<center><a href=\" https://www.wsj.com/articles/goldman-retreats-from-options-as-stock-derivatives-trading-struggles-1509701404\" target=\"_blank\">Full Article</a> </center>\n\nCrypto markets offer volatility more so than any other asset class out there. I expect banks to immediately setup trading desks dedicated entirely to  crypto markets and begin operating in the space by buying weakness and selling strength, on repeat. Of course, they will be colluding with mainstream media to make sure they swindle the maximum profits out of the current structure as they do in any other market.\n\n As more of these trading desks come into the space, they will be competing with one another, and this will have the effect of leveling off volatility. Goldman Sachs has already announced the initiation of a crypto dedicated trading desk, and it’s safe to assume the other banks are not too far behind.\n\n<center> ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmb4z6yowGeavdvxAJZMaZjc2XXaZpcS4DQc9jCR19jQML/image.png)</center>\n\n<center><a href=\" https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/goldman-sachs-launching-trading-desk-for-bitcoin-report-says.html\" target=\"_blank\">Full Article</a> </center>\n\n\n\nAnother very important piece of the banker trading desk puzzle to consider is regulation on trading desks since 2008. Following the financial crisis, regulators made it so banks must keep a higher ratio of capital on hand to cover operations in their trading desks. In other words, they put trading desks on tighter leashes by limiting leverage, and banks are obsessed with leverage. Leverage allows them to make more money on fees from the same amount of capital on hand. \n\n### Enter crypto at a time when yield starved trading desks are looking for volatility, the opportunity to create leverage, and a market that is easy to manipulate. Voila! \n\n<i>Okay, so what? Trading desks do not control the fate of trillions of dollars, merely billions. *hint of sarcasm here, but nonetheless, a fair observation...</i>\n\nNow let me explain why the real money will also come pouring into crypto markets, and by real, I mean the funds with trillions in assets. In short, it is also because short volatility is an overcrowded trade and nobody has any sense of what the broad market will do once this crowded trade breaks up.\n\nWall Street understands that volatility will not remain where it is for much longer. Naturally, they are looking to hedge their short volatility positions, and they will be looking for vehicles to synthetically go long volatility. Since long VIX is extremely overpriced, what better way to go long VIX than to go long the most volatile asset class possible, crypto?\n\nYet, this asset class can not only be volatile, it must also be proven to be uncorrelated to other asset classes in case of a broader market decline.\n\n<center> ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmbuN7bsV28X3CBUeDb6xtdbFgFvKC2DA2LD7SwLETPvEe/image.png) </center>\n\n<center><a href=\" https://btcmanager.com/research-portfolios-are-augmented-with-bitcoin/\" target=\"_blank\">Full Article</a> </center>\n\nWhen a source as credible as the World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology comes out and states that adding Bitcoin to a portfolio offers better risk-adjusted returns you know that Wall St is going to pay a lot of attention to it, and they are going to use it in their marketing campaigns to bolster their assets under management. \n\n### Never forget that Wall St makes its money based on assets under management (AUM), so it is in their best interest to increase this number relentlessly. They will develop narratives and peddle them to potential customers in hopes of luring their assets in under their management in an effort to maximize their profits from fees.\n<br>\nNot only does crypto offer banksters the advantage of owning a highly asymmetrical asset, but it also fits into their quest for low-beta (smart beta, as they call it), diversified portfolios. This is why the money managers with the serious money will begin allocating smaller portions (say 5%) of their funds to crypto in pursuit of an uncorrelated asset and one with high upside. \n\n### Conclusion:\nBanks and institutions are coming to the crypto space. In fact, some have already done so. But equilibrium has not been reached yet and the line waiting to get in is pretty long. \n\n\n![lines.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVtKydNxrs6Luo8Doag1vpmnKLqPgm6Kxd8anXrNr7a2q/lines.jpg)\n\n<center><a href=\"https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-VY783_iphone_M_20171103152624.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Source</a> </center>\n\n\n\nTrading desks are fretting over their dismal performance in 2017, and they will be looking at the volatility offered in crypto as an opportunity to scalp profits in an immature, unsophisticated marketplace that is easily manipulated. They are likely frothing over this setup, it is almost too easy.\n\nMore importantly, the funds controlling trillions of dollars in savings are beginning to accept the narrative that Bitcoin and crypto offer value to a diversified investment fund. Namely, it is uncorrelated to the broad market and offers huge upside in an environment where yields are at historic lows. At least, this will be the narrative they push unto the general public in hopes of garnering more assets under management.\n\nStay informed my friends, and grab your popcorn! We will experience many things in 2018, but boredom will not be one of them.\n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "cryptocurrency",
      "permlink": "volatility-you-vixen-why-vol-is-crypto-s-best-friend",
      "title": "Volatility, You Vixen – Why Vol Is Crypto’s Best Friend"
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  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:40:24",
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    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Longtime readers know I am bullish on cybersecurity simply because it does not yet exist. Cybersecurity is the single most exciting area of high tech because everything our modern society operates on is somehow linked to the cyber world, and the market for cybersecurity is still in its infant stages with no clear, emerging winners. \n\n### <i>“There are only two types of companies: those that have been hacked and those that will be.” – FBI Director Robert Mueller (2012) </i>\n<br>\nEverything we know and take for granted is exposed to exploitation by any individual or collective group with the technical and practical knowledge on how to do so. I want you to truly reflect on this because everything from water supply to electricity to communications is exposed to cyber exploitation, and once basic utilities go so does everything associated with it from a social perspective.\n\n## With the emergence of state-sponsored hacking tools being released to public domain, it is apparent that offenses are much better equipped than existing defenses. \n<br>\nCybersecurity defenses are a reactionary force; a breach is only recognized once the offensive force has breached and escaped, more often than not without detection. In other words, cyber is a defenseless space because those who have the resources and drive to exploit via enhanced offensive techniques can have their way with defenses that are reactionary.\n\nNY Times wrote an article that warrants reading on what our national cybersecurity forces are up against.\n\n<center>![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaR5kv3J9o33FxvUNSE2wHQEHRu8BqdVxxSXmVwTpFkej/image.png)</center>\n\n<center><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/12/us/nsa-shadow-brokers.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top-stories&_r=0&mtrref=undefined\" target=\"_blank\">Full Article</a></center>\n\nRight now, the problem is that cybersecurity is perceived to be a defensive industry, yet it has shown us repeatedly that cybersecurity defense is lagging cyber offense techniques. The reason for this is simple: there’s more money to be made in offense than defense.\n\nYet, we now stand at a point in time where this narrative is shifting. Defense is becoming less about making sure emails cannot be stolen and more of a necessity for a functional economy, infrastructure, and even a nation-state as we know it. As I stated earlier, cybersecurity is the security force that stands between the “evil”, exogenous forces, and our functional society. Unfortunately, the \"evil\", exogenous forces have the upper hand.\n\nNot only that, but we now stand at a point where everyone is so vulnerable that anyone can hack into anyone's personal affairs, it does not necessarily have to be a computer-savvy expert. All sorts of hacking kits and phishing schemes are for sale online nowadays, meaning that anyone can hack anyone if they have the will to do so.\n\nThis applies to everyone who has any sort of online presence, which is everyone. You are exposed, even if you think you are not, and this applies especially to cryptocurrency investors. \n\nI picture the state of cyber much like this clip from <i>We Were Soldiers</i>, it’s a broken arrow situation of utter chaos.  <i>Be advised clip consists of military combat.</i>\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctnK7wdJmAo\n\nI have long felt that a hack of Coinbase was inevitable, simply since no defense has proven impenetrable, not even that of US Military Cyber Command. If our most sophisticated cyber experts are unable to secure assets and information, what makes you think that a bunch of private citizens working at a startup are any more capable? Throw into the mix that the incentive to hack Coinbase is simply too large to ignore now following the rise in value of digital assets, and it appears quite clear that a cyber Black Swan event is due. \n\n## Scary, I know, but the moment we realize that we are all exposed is the moment that we realize all we can do in this environment is make sure we are not the low hanging fruit. Make yourself as difficult to hack and exploit as possible. \n<br>\nFor investors looking to enter the crypto marketplace, I highly recommend you revisit my How To Post, <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/how-to-invest-in-cryptocurrency-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">here.</a> \n\nWhile I have been perusing the traditional beginning of 2018 market predictions, mine is straightforward:\n\n# <center> Coinbase will experience a major breach inside of 12 months. </center>\n<br>\n \n<center>https://www.coinbase.com/img/og-home.jpg</center>\n\n<center><a href=\"https://www.coinbase.com/img/og-home.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Source</a></center>\n\nThe ramifications when this occurs are anybody’s guess. Undoubtedly, the broad crypto market will decline substantially, and only those who fully understand the space and its history will survive; those who comprehend the importance of taking personal responsibility for securing one’s own assets, private keys, security phrases, etc. \n\nIf you have yet to do so already, now is a time to take some profits off the table and purchase yourself a hardware wallet. <a href=\"https://trezor.io/\" target=\"_blank\">Trezor</a> and <a href=\"https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/ledger-nano-s\" target=\"_blank\">Ledger</a> are just a few of the options I recommend you research further on your own. \n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.\n\n<br>\n\n![Quotefancy-2021624-3840x2160 (1).jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPhKmdEEKv4NJyDxS9sb6EDGFJ8Zd5cyy4EHQgmE1Ufjc/Quotefancy-2021624-3840x2160%20(1).jpg)",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "blackswan",
      "permlink": "broken-arrow-coinbase-hacked-in-12-months",
      "title": "“Broken Arrow” – Leading Exchange Hack Black Swan(s)"
    }
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Quantitative easing (QE) is a topic that is well-covered these days, especially within the cryptocurrency and precious metal communities, for better or worse. QE is often cited as one of the most compelling bullish developments relative to alternative investments because QE has diluted the value of every fiat currency through an increased supply, thereby reducing value, since demand is relatively stable (if not decreasing).\n \n<center> http://wwwcdn.antiquetrader.com/wp-content/uploads/capitalism-supply-and-demand.gif </center>\n### There is not necessarily more fiat in circulation, but there is more fiat-denominated debt floating around on central bank balance sheets, which has the same devaluing effect on the underlying fiat asset. \n<br>\nRegardless, the argument is that a weakening fiat currency system is bullish for these alternative assets because as folks realize their paper money is being inflated away in value and earning practically zero interest, they will flock to assets that offer an alternative to fiat. These alternatives are namely precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Of course there are others (such as real estate, art, and physical goods), but precious metals and crypto appear the most accessible, so I will focus on these.\n\nHere is a chart depicting the loss of purchasing power in USD:\nhttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K4ko1ZLKWjw/Uh19bn4gzpI/AAAAAAAAAss/9IpoJEnntRE/s1600/US+dollar+Value.jpg\n\nAs I said, this is likely a topic you’ve read so much on that you are already bored. </center>\n### The thing that most people miss in their discussion of QE, however, is the fact that not only has the value of fiat currency been undermined, but the pricing mechanisms used throughout our global economy have been manipulated to coincide with the policies supporting QE. \n<br>\nIn short, central banks have been able to pursue QE by creating an environment of extremely low interest rates. They lowered interest rates to artificial lows by buying obscene amounts of bonds. With central banks dumping all of their QE money into the bond markets, they essentially mispriced all other assets in equities, real estate, you name it. This is because the market, as a whole, relies on the bond markets as the incorruptible safe-haven. Bond markets were thought to be too large for any one entity to manipulate, yet the Fed and central banks have achieved exactly this using QE.\n\nhttps://themalaysianreserve.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/p10s2_Bloated-Balance-Sheets.png\n\n##### The Fed (and all other central banks) have chosen a path of QE primarily for two reasons:\n(1)\tGovernments will always continue to raise their own budgets. After all, they must be compensated for inflation each year, right?\n(2)\tGovernments will always fight to remain in power. QE allows governments the option of maintaining artificially low interest rates by pumping newly created money into bond markets. The reason they want low interest rates is because low interest rates make voters feel wealthy. Voters with some change in their pockets will re-elect over their debt ridden counterparts. Low interest rates also allow the government to repay their debts with minimal interest payments; meaning they can pile more debt onto the debt load and continually \"raise the ceiling\".\n\n<I>*It's worth mentioning that I use the terms \"government\" and \"central bank\" interchangeably. For all intents and purposes, central banks are politically-based, despite what people may tell you. Similar to the notion of separation of church and state; it sounds nice, but in reality almost all US Presidents are Christian.</I>\n\nLet’s break this down a bit. Name one government in history that freely chose to decrease its own budget. In other words, identify a single politician who willingly voted to decrease the amount of money he/she brought home to the family at the end of the day. Governments are like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Anytime a group of people are brought together, they are going to do what serves the group the best. It’s only human nature, so you cannot really blame them for looking out for themselves and their families. \n\nHowever, when this same group of people is given power over all others, it then becomes a dangerous proposition. That is what I mean by self-fulfilling prophecy. Whatever this all-powerful group decides is best for themselves will be signed into law and carried through the socioeconomic and legal process to our door front. It is usually in the form of taxation, one way or another. Like everything else, <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/anyone-can-invest-successfully-do-experts-exist/\">it’s all about the money. </a> \n\n\nIn a desperate attempt to see that their budgets are not slashed, governments took to the bond markets to make sure that the money kept flowing into the economy, and thereby, their own pockets. By printing unlimited money and pumping it into bonds, the government was able to keep the price of money (interest) down to historic lows. \n\n \nAs a result, corporations and common people could go out and borrow money to purchase assets. Because it was so cheap to borrow money and buy assets, the prices of assets went up as more people had the ability to bid on an asset with loaned money. So real estate and equities went up in price so long as the Fed was buying obscene amounts of bonds. As long as the bond markets were in a bull market, so too were equity markets and real estate markets. This was because the pricing mechanisms were corrupted from the top down, beginning with the once-thought immutable bond markets and spreading through the smaller equity and real estate markets.\n\nThese rising asset prices made people feel like they were rich. They watched as their investments in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. went up in value. This time, things were truly different. Perhaps this bull market will last indefinitely. \n\nIn return, the people voted to maintain this establishment of government by focusing only on the Presidential election when the established government sits in Congress and the House of Representatives.\n\nBack to QE…\n\nThe Fed stole the savings of people who kept their funds in the banks. Savers did not receive interest payments because the bond markets were flooded with printed QE money to keep interest low, remember?  So, in realizing this, everyone poured their savings into bonds, equities, real estate, college educations, new cars, consumer spending, etc. in search for yield on their capital. The system was rigged to get everyone’s wealth into the markets, be it credit or debt. I have written about this trend previously <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/follow-the-leader\">via the proliferation of passive investing</a> and the extreme amounts of <a href=\"https://steemit.com/news/@maven360/global-debt-now-3-times-more-than-world-gdp\">debt</a> that we all find ourselves in.\n\nThe problem was that the only reason this was happening was because the Fed managed to drive interest rates down so low by manipulating the bond markets. The Fed could simulate a healthy, growing economy by simply dumping QE funds into bonds. \n\nIt should be clear that this is not a sustainable system. Many folks seem to be catching onto this, be it the precious metal advocates, cryptocurrency advocates, the Republicans, the Democrats, the libertarians, etc. The Fed knows this, and therefore they have reversed course and made its intention to raise interest rates painfully clear. \n\nThey have to make this reversal so clear so that all of the major corporations and banks have time to reorganize their investment portfolios accordingly. That is why anytime a Fed meeting is announced, it comes out several months in advance. That is also why the meeting minutes and interviews of Fed chair Janet Yellen are followed so closely; because Yellen is  telling everyone where the largest flows of liquidity (QE money) are headed next.\n\nStay tuned for Part 2.\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n#### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies</a>",
      "json_metadata": "{\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\",\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/anyone-can-invest-successfully-do-experts-exist/\",\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/follow-the-leader\",\"https://steemit.com/news/@maven360/global-debt-now-3-times-more-than-world-gdp\",\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\"],\"image\":[\"http://wwwcdn.antiquetrader.com/wp-content/uploads/capitalism-supply-and-demand.gif\",\"http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K4ko1ZLKWjw/Uh19bn4gzpI/AAAAAAAAAss/9IpoJEnntRE/s1600/US+dollar+Value.jpg\",\"https://themalaysianreserve.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/p10s2_Bloated-Balance-Sheets.png\"],\"tags\":[\"investing\",\"quantitative\",\"easing\",\"maven360\"]}",
      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "money",
      "permlink": "the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing",
      "title": "The Devil Is In The Details – Part I"
    }
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "The Fed is attempting to “normalize” its balance sheets, meaning they are going to stop buying new bonds and reinvesting maturing bond coupon payments back into the overall bond market. They are going to try and return the market to its natural state, one which does not run on endless bond purchasing to prop up asset values.\n\nThe trick is, the natural health of the market is unknown (or too poor), so the Fed must closely monitor the market’s health like a dying patient and carry out the transition as slowly and smoothly as possible to prevent any panic. This is a delicate dance, to say the least. Recall that the entire market has been mispriced due to the bond market being manipulated, a notion once thought inconceivable. \n\n<center> http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2016/06/13/Photos/NS/MW-EP161_chart1_20160613094902_NS.jpg?uuid=963be77e-316d-11e6-8156-0015c588dfa6</center>\n<center><i>FIGURE 1 - Lowest Interest Rates Ever</i></center>\n\n\n#### Can the Fed restore interest rates? The 200 trillion dollar question everyone is asking.\n\nThis is another one of the reasons the Fed’s meetings are so closely watched in the financial markets. Most are saying that the Fed will not be able to raise rates without causing a recession. They go on to say that a stock market crash is inevitable. \"Get into gold! Get into cryptocurrency! Get out of equities now!\" \n\nAs I will say repeatedly, I try my best to come into any situation objectively. I call this a comprehensive approach. In other words, I try not to take sides, and when it does come time to take a side I will likely prefer the uncrowded side. This is not a matter of being a contrarian, but rather having leverage to larger gains when the crowded side of the trade turns out to be wrong and rushes back into the uncrowded, correct trade.\n\nThe fact that nearly everyone is preaching a stock market crash, the end of the USD, the end of the US empire, etc. I must reflect on the possibility of the complete opposite happening.  \n\n#### What if the Fed can raise interest rates (by no longer buying bonds) without crashing the markets? \n\n#### What if instead of a stock market crash, the bond market collapses due to a sovereign debt issue, and thus, the immense liquidity outflow from bond markets finds a new home in equities sending the stock market propelling even higher? \n<br>\nBond markets are so large ($200 Trillion), they envelop three times the amount of wealth as those of the equity markets ($70 Trillion) and 1500 times the wealth stored in cryptocurrencies ($140 Billion). This is some serious cash, folks. It pays to follow developments in the bond market, because everything else that occurs in the stock market, real estate market, crypto market, etc. is a direct effect of bond market price movements. \n\nSo, while everyone in the financial world seems to obsess over interest rates, what they are truly interested in is the bond market. When the Fed discusses hikes or cuts in interest rates, what they are really describing is how they will move forward with their bond market manipulation. Many seem to miss this.\n\n<center> http://whythings.net/Images/chart72.jpg </center>\n\n<center><i>FIGURE 2 - There's Now Over $200 Trillion in Public Bond Markets</i></center>\n<br>\n\n<center> http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-C0YqMqAORKQ/U3nhPmHINTI/AAAAAAAAUFA/bzdxndPv-nM/s1600/8.jpeg </center>\n\n<center><i>FIGURE 3 - Equities Now Contain Roughly $70 Trillion </i></center>\n\n If the Fed is not able to restore normalcy to the market what will happen? \n\nThe bond market may break before we experience a stock market correction. If this occurs, then it seems within reason to say that the capital outflow from bonds will likely flow into equities, real estate, and perhaps a portion of it will land in cryptocurrencies. There is $200 Trillion at play here, so any sort of capital outflows from this market will be substantial. Meaning, the thesis that the stock market will collapse due to QE may turn out to be incorrect if the bond market collapses first.\n\nJust ask yourself this:\n\nWould you be inclined to give your money to say, an Argentine 100-year bond with an 8% yield, or would you rather buy into Exxon Mobil with a 4% dividend? Which has a better chance of paying out? A government that’s bankrupted 5x in the last 100 years, or a global leader in the world’s energy business with a growing dividend?\n\nI would have to take the bet that the world will continue to use oil over the prospect of any government with a manipulating central bank honoring its word of paying me out on my bond over the course of 100 years! It sure seems that nearly everyone would agree here, and this is why I see it as a high probability that money fleeing bond markets will search for a new home in equity markets, regardless of valuation fundamentals such as P/E, FCF, Debt-Equity, etc. being historically high.\n\nWhat to do then? Clearly, I am not going to recommend anyone gain exposure to bonds, whether they be public or private. Central banks are manipulating public bond markets, and private corporate bonds are offering pitifully low yields for companies that are more indebted than any other time in history.\n\nInstead, I would have to suggest thinking about investing in “cheap” undervalued assets that are being overlooked. When I say overlooked, you will likely have to greatly expand your timeframe and your geographical comfort zone. You may also have to rethink your thoughts on the phrase: “Don’t attempt to catch a falling knife”. For more specific recommendations, please revisit my previous posts <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/learning-how-about-earning-investing-part-2\n\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/learning-how-about-earning-investing-part-2\n\">here.</a> \n\nWhile QE is often portrayed as the tipping point for the fiat system and the single largest reason as to why cryptocurrencies and precious metals will win out the day, I must say that while I do agree with this narrative, it is not a fully comprehensive one. \n\nThe other side of the same narrative suggests it is within the realm of possibility that bond markets collapse before equities do, and thus the capital outflow from bonds will force itself into the equity market, resulting in an artificially-extended bull market in stocks.\n\nThe widely-held notion of a stock market collapse may happen, too. But if this occurs where will people put their money? This money would most likely search for a new home in T bills, real estate, blue-chips, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. This is the scenario that we are usually presented with when it comes to QE.\n\nThere is a pecking order, a hierarchy of how things will collapse. The likelihood of bonds collapsing, then stocks collapsing, with property values collapsing, and fiats collapsing all simultaneously seems a bit far-fetched to me. This is the scenario that some doomsayers lay out as the way that precious metals and cryptocurrencies will shoot to the moon. While this is possible, it does not seem as sure a thing as something disrupting the bond market creating liquidity flight across all assets. Told you I was not a <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/learning-how-about-earning-investing-part-1\">Chicken Little type! </a>\n\n<center> http://www.davidmcelroy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Chicken-Little-on-CNN.jpg </center>\n\nWhat seems most likely is a gradual unwinding of the bond market manipulation via the Fed’s interest rate hikes, thereby returning volatility to the equity markets because the free money QE-era is over, overvalued real estate markets experiencing severe corrections like 07/08 in the US along with a tightening credit cycle, and cryptocurrencies/precious metals continuing to gain traction throughout the whole process due to their connection with the global zeitgeist of FUD (yet not rocketing to the moon as some suggest). \n\n#### We are dealing with a global system that determines the lives of over 7 billion beings, so suffice it to say that I think things will take longer than most are currently anticipating. \n\nThat is not to say that you should not organize your portfolio accordingly today. You absolutely should, but don’t go betting the farm! As I like to say, oftentimes the way to receive an asymmetric payout is to be holding a position that goes from uncrowded to <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/learning-how-about-earning-investing-part-2\">“it’s getting a bit stuffy in here.”</a> \n\nI hope you've enjoyed this 2-part post and have gained a new perspective on the concept of quantitative easing (QE). Moving forward, I will be structuring my thoughts on the world of cryptocurrencies. \n\n\n\n<i>“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function”</i> --  F. Scott Fitzgerald\n\n<br>\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n#### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies</a>",
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      "title": "The Devil Is In The Details – Part 2"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "By now, I hope I have made it clear that I like to approach my investments holistically.\n\nhttps://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/holistic1.jpg?w=676\n\nMeaning, I do not blindly accept the word of experts, nor do I confirm my biases by only reading information from sources that tend to sway one way over the other. I also allow myself the flexibility and freedom to change my mind should the facts change about any specific investment.\n\nAs I have previously written, my approach to gathering information includes reading, reading, and finally, more reading. Reading is the single most powerful way to educate yourself. I listen to several interviews and podcasts, I read blogs, I follow technical commentary on forums, and I expose myself to as many aspects of an investment as possible before I decide to execute a trade. \n\nThis is my “working through the weeds” legwork of an investment. These are the finer details that are aimed at answering the classic questions of what is my risk/reward setup, what is my end goal for this investment, what is my contingency plan should I be wrong, what is my timeline for holding, what sorts of events/volatility am I willing to hold through, and what sort of things would have to arise for me to exit the position.\n\nHowever, there are much more important pieces to the puzzle that I find many investors miss in their analysis. So far, all that my research has included is digesting the opinion and analysis of others. Sure, several of these individuals that I read and listen to are likely smarter than I am in their respective fields. \n\nYet, when it comes to connecting the dots, plotting a course of action, and carrying through on that action me, myself, and I is the most qualified individual to make decisions as they relate to my money. Same goes for you. \n\n#### While we can rely on others for gathering information, information alone is not actionable; information alone is not enough to make an intelligent decision. We must turn this information into something more useful: actionable wisdom.\n <br>\n\nhttps://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/wisdom.jpg?w=676\n\nIn this information age, I witness countless people mistaking information for wisdom. I find that many are quick to react to the latest tip. They respond to the latest price action as a confirmation that something is about to “blow a top” and take off “to the moon”. Here on Steemit alone, I see many investing in cryptocurrency in this exact fashion. \n\nNow, I realize that some understand the space and all that comes with it. Meaning, they understand the risks involved with investing in such a nascent marketplace, and as such, they are properly allocating small amounts of capital to these highly speculative positons.\n\nYet, I am now seeing some truly disconcerting signs that people are “betting the farm”. People are overextending themselves via loans, liquidating physical assets in order to raise capital, and they are willing to extend themselves via margin on various exchanges. They are also losing patience, and abandoning limit orders in place of market orders, essentially chasing the market price higher. I suspect these sorts of individuals are the ones who will be easily shaken from their positions, and I suspect the so-called “whales” in the space will be the ones who shake these people from their positions.\n\n The whale (aka experienced investor) will be able to buy this overextended money for a nice discount at some point in the future, when any sort of noticeable price decline will cause those overextended to sell out of fear. This is normal in any market, but judging by the current quality of money coming into the space and the rate at which it’s entering the market, I see smart money patiently waiting on the sidelines and waiting for the trees to develop low-hanging fruit. \n\nI mean, seriously, just read through some of the comments here on a Steemit post or a Coindesk.com article. Any Tom, Dick, or Harry could write an article on “Why to Buy (____)” and odds are you will see real people commenting that they are entering real positions based on this information. Market seems a bit frothy, wouldn’t you say?\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/froth1.jpg?w=676 </center>\n \nI like my investments like I do my beer, without excessive froth. Now, I will not speculate on any sort of timelines or any sort of price predictions, but I will say that the price of bitcoin responding as it has in the past several weeks (up to $4000 from $1800 as of this writing) it sure seems to me the market is pricing in the best-case scenario. \n\nThis scenario likely prices in the value of larger block sizes, lightning network, and any other number of field-specific computer engineering items that are truly too technical for one to digest without any sort of background in computer science. <i>That is not to say that you should not attempt to do so in the comments!</i>\n\nI, like everyone else in the crypto community, have my own opinion on how things will play out (and I usually do not share my opinions unless I am around intelligent people). That said, I am bullish on the long-term picture for cryptocurrencies. However, I have yet to read anything that truly explains why I am bullish on cryptos. \n\nSo, in my coming posts I will be digging deeper into the world of crypto and I will attempt to structure my thoughts in a way that is clear, logical, easy enough for anyone to follow, and ultimately open-ended enough for you to develop your own working thesis on the space.\n\nUnlike several of the of the other Steemit posters I have been exposed to, I am not inclined to engage in commentary about hard forks, scaling, this v. that, them v. us, crypto v. the world, etc. type views. I like to think that I focus on larger, ubiquitous, unstoppable trends and how human nature and politics will inevitably pry themselves into the picture.\n\nSome of the overarching questions I will attempt to answer include:\n#### -\tIs the crypto market really in a bubble, and if/when will it burst?\n#### -\tIs the crypto market driven by return on investment, or marketing?\n#### -\tHow will institutional money enter the space and what will that look like?\n#### -\tIs Bitcoin the de facto reserve currency, or is it gradually being undermined?\n#### -\tCan we still make boat loads of money in this space, or are we too late to the party?\n<br>\nBefore reading my coming posts on cryptocurrency, I hope that you will revisit my previous posts to better understand my philosophy towards investing, and to better understand my tone of voice so that I can communicate my thoughts to you more clearly. \n\nIt is my hope that anyone reading this will engage in the comments section. I will not pretend to know how the future will play out. The truth of the matter is that nobody does, nor will they ever. It is quite a liberating moment when you realize the investment playing fields are level, and so long as you are reading while asking the right questions you are as well-prepared as anyone to position yourself for substantial monetary gains.\n\n<i> \"Information is not knowledge. The only source of knowledge is experience.\" </i> -- Albert Einstein\n\n<br>\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n#### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies</a>",
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      "permlink": "thoughts-on-cryptoverse-part-i-investing",
      "title": "Thoughts On Cryptoverse"
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      "body": "<center><b> Is the crypto market currently in a bubble? </b></center>\n\nIn order to truly gauge whether or not crypto is looking “Bubblicious”, we have to examine several different factors; some of which I will be unable to get to in this post, but will cover in subsequent posts.\n\nhttp://images.fanpop.com/images/image_uploads/Bubblicious-chewing-gum-258880_1000_298.jpg\n \nFirst and foremost, the amount of money entering the space is staggering. Coinbase just signed up <a href=\" https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-user-base-surges-coinbase-adds-1-mln-users-in-1-month. \n\">1 million new users in a month’s time!\n</a> \n\n\nMost people would point to this as a bullish development. I have my reservations, mainly because I am not convinced the quality of this money is high-grade. It seems to me that money is rushing into the space out of FOMO and this is amongst one of the worst emotions to bring to the table in the investing world. \n\n<center>http://socialexperiment.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/511388596_640.jpg</center>\n\nFOMO generally lends itself to those who buy at the top, and sell near the bottom. FOMO investors buy into an asset expecting another price surge, and when this surge turns into a short-term correction, they inevitably sell out of fear and a lack of understanding for the market in which they are dealing.\n\nWhile I remain skeptical of the quality of the money entering the space and the velocity at which its entering, at the very same time, I think that the staggering number of people flooding into the space illustrates the power of crypto's narrative. This is undoubtedly bullish because the asset class as a whole is becoming accessible to a much larger audience. \n\nMany people are not properly educated on what goes into a cryptocurrency, nor are they engaging in learning about them, and as such, they are generally investing via a group-think approach. This is why we experience certain cryptos suddenly blow up on any given day. Yet, they seem to come right back down after things cool off and the herd goes to graze upon other grasslands. \n\nThe group-thinkers seem to be living by the mantra: “Buy the rumor, sell the news”.\n\n<center>https://cointelegraph.com/images/725_Ly9jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS9zdG9yYWdlL3VwbG9hZHMvdmlldy9jMWRjN2ExYTg1MjJkMDU4NzBiODQzZDE0ZjllOGYwMi5qcGc=.jpg</center>\n\n ## <center> ICO’s </center>\n<br>\nFolks, the easy money in this space has been made. To those of you who made this money, congratulations. To everyone else, tamper your expectations a bit. ICO’s are the reason the crypto market is being compared to the dot-com bubble, and for good reason. There are entire threads, profiles, and traders who have dedicated extensive amounts of time towards perfecting their ICO-picking approach. Quite frankly, I am shocked I have not seen an investment newsletter promoting an ICO picking service as their newest newsletter “minting millionaires” on demand.\n\nIs an ICO picker as successful as his techniques and framework, or is he simply the lucky recipient of being invested in a select market prior to a bull market? Meaning, is ICO picking really a sophisticated process, or were early ICO investors simply in the right place at the right time? Judging by the popularity of the carpet-bombing approach to ICO investing, it seems the latter may be more accurate. \n\n<i> With carpet-bombing, I am referring to the strategy of entering small positions (i.e. $100) into a large basket of ICO’s and hoping you catch a winner. </i>\n\nWhat seems to have happened this past year in the ICO markets is that early Bitcoin/Ethereum holders were greatly rewarded for being timely holders of these coins as prices surged. These well-rewarded holders skimmed profits from this huge rise in price and rather than sell out to fiat, they directed them into every new ICO to hit the block. \n\nEach new, hot ICO went on to raise more money than the previous and in less time. Does this stand to reason that each new ICO had a better idea than the previous with a better roadmap and directed by a more experienced team? Not necessarily. In fact, you could argue the opposite.\n\n<center>https://i2.wp.com/thomasquinlan.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Screen-Shot-2017-07-13-at-17.50.21.png?fit=1360%2C915&ssl=1</center>\n\nDo you truly believe that everyone who invested in these extremely speculative ICO’s took the time to fully analyze each detail, understand the team, contemplate the market, estimate returns, etc? My bet is that these people realized they were being given a second chance to make another early adopter of bitcoin-like return by being the first to enter these new ICO tokens at cheap prices before floods of capital entered the space. \n\n<i>Essentially, these early adopters of Bitcoin and Ethereum had the means and methods to be the first adopters of the new ICO’s while everyone else was still figuring out how to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum. They were the ones with the opportunity to access these ICO’s before all others, and they took advantage of that opportunity. </i>\n\nBy sending such large amounts of money into these ICO’s, these investors created a self-fulfilling prophecy of value and hence the valuations rose along with their holdings. That is why nearly every company in the space is valued at hundreds of millions of dollars already, even though some do not have any prototypes, roadmaps, established market segments, or even a proper whitepaper.\n\nThink about that for a second. Think about some of the business owners and established brands you interact with daily, and think about how long it took them to develop a business with that kind of valuation. These ICO's garnered rich market caps overnight due to liquidity being taken from Bitcoin/Ethereum profits and rolled over into the ICO’s token. \n\nThis, in turn, created a pump for the crypto and demand continued to grow. When prices are rising, it is pretty easy for an investor to rationalize that it is still undervalued and the price will continue to rise. The thing many fail to notice is that they are not necessarily following smart money into an ICO. Large portions of ICO funds were simply an efficient way for Bitcoin/Ethereum winners to diversify their profits. \n\n### So do I think the whole space is primed for a bubble burst? \n\nNo. However, I do see the nonsense cryptos being wiped out in a relatively short period. This liquidity will likely flow back into the reserve currency cryptos and the established players in the space.\n\n### Well then, what about the possibility of the reserve currencies being in a bubble?\n\nFolks, if I may I would like to point you in the direction of my   <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\">previous</a> <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\n\">posts</a> on the current state of the bond market and the equity market.\n\n\n\n\nI pay especially close attention to the bond market. Why? Because bond markets are where the majority of global wealth are stored, transported, and monitored. It pays to pay attention to the bond market. This is where the central banks determine the fate of the world’s money. As we stand, the Fed is aiming to taper off its manipulation of bond markets by reducing QE-fueled bond buybacks and purchases. This will likely lead to uncertainty in the bond market which will carry over into all other assets. \n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/worlds-money.jpg?w=1714 </center>\n<center> </i> All Numbers In Billions $USD</i></center>\n\nWhat about equities then? Are they overvalued? I have written about it already, but in short, most conventional equity investments also seem overvalued. You really have to dig deep in order to find a classic “value” investment. Equities are the second largest store of wealth in the world, so I also pay extremely close attention to equities. \n \n### So, while conventional wisdom tells us that nearly every asset in the world is currently overvalued (primarily due to QE), does it make sense that cryptos also enter overvalued territory? \n<br>\nIt seems well within reason to reach artificial valuation level in the world of crypto because the cost of capital is virtually free. Loan rates are extremely low across the board, so overextension on real estate, on bonds, on equities, on cryptos are not such a scary prospect when one can take out a loan to cover losses, if needed. \n\nMistakes are covered for cheap these days, and so it seems to me that while the bubble talk on cryptos is warranted, it is just about time cryptos enter a so-called bubble so that they can compete with some of the actual \"bubbles\" of our day: you know, bonds, equities, real estate, corporate debt, consumer debt (i.e. subprime auto loans, student debt, credit cards). Bubbles that have some serious consequences should they pop. \n\nWith all of this in mind, some fellow skeptics may be asking: “Well just because bonds and equities are overvalued, this does not mean a correction is anywhere in sight. And if bonds/equities experiencing a correction and capital flowing into crypto is your basis for being bullish on the crypto market then you may be waiting for quite some time.”\n\nI am not saying that bond markets and equity markets are due for a collapse, but perhaps a correction. In fact, I have previously written about the possibility of any correction in the bond market leading to huge gains in the equity market, amongst other scenarios that could possibly play out.\n\n### My reason for being bullish on crypto, regardless of market correlation, fundamentals, or regulations is that it currently represents 0.1% of global wealth store of value. That's correct, <i>only 0.1%.</i>\n<br>\nThat is the single most important reason I have to be bullish on crypto. Should capital need to reshuffle itself from bond markets, equities, real estate, or in general, ANY other asset class, cryptocurrencies are poised to catch this fleeting capital in the droves. Sure, this will happen rapidly should a market correction occur, but what I see more likely, is larger institutions and investors gradually reweighting their portfolios to include small allocations to crypto. \n\n## <center> Summary </center>\n<br>\n While I do see a purge coming for the crypto markets, it seems inevitable that the cryptos to survive this purge will expand in value and grow at exponential rates as serious capital inflows occur over the coming years. Am I projecting a moon-landing? Perhaps, for a select few.  Some will experience serious gains that compete with the likes of early investments in Amazon, Facebook, and Google. Others will expire worthless. Do your homework, and do not allow FOMO or lack of effort to be the reasons for why your investments are not successful. Have patience and read!\n\n<i> \"Nothing in the world raises prices like an excess of demand over supply.\"</i> -- Howard Marks\n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n#### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies</a>",
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      "title": "Is The Crypto Market Currently In A Bubble?"
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      "body": "This post will provide a run-down on how you can enter the cryptocurrency marketplace and initiate positions in various cryptocurrencies. I realize this material may not be new to my Steemit followers, but to others just entering the space this is my recommendation to you.\n\n## Step 1 - Secure Your Computer, Cell Phone, and Email\n\nPrior to moving any money, you first must review the security of your devices, your online presence, and the applications you operate on.\n\n ### <center> Computer </center>\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/security.jpg?w=1226 </center>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.avast.com/en-us/index</center>\">Avast</a> has a quality product suite that you may want to consider if you suspect you are vulnerable here.\n\n ### <center> Cell Phone </center>\nFor most, cell phones are the weakest link in the chain. While this is a pigeon hole I encourage you all to pursue further on your own, here is what I suggest.\n\n##### 1.    Lock Your Phone With Passcode\n##### 2.    Do Not Store Sensitive Information (i.e. financial login credentials)  \n##### 3.    Set Up Remote Wipe (i.e. Lost My iPhone) \n##### 4.    Avoid Third Party Apps \n##### 5.    Avoid Jailbreaking Your Phone\n##### 6.    Update Operating Systems \n##### 7.    Do Not Use Public Wifi \n##### 8.    Protect Your Phone Number\n<br>\nNowadays, cell phones are a portal to nearly all of our most personal information, so being vigilant about how you use your phone will reduce your chances of falling victim to fraud.\n\n\n ### <center> Online Presence / Applications </center>\nFor most of you here on Steem, you are well-aware that the most important information is your personal information. That is why companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, etc. are so richly valued. They have all of your information. I recommend you review your account settings and profiles at each and every online portal you interact with. Strive for the most stringent options and delete any information you would not want available to the public.\n\nOne of the most important portals to secure is your email. Make sure that your email cannot be easily accessed by anyone other than you. Enabling 2-phase authorization is a good start. You may also want to consider ditching your old email accounts (especially if you run on Yahoo, AOL, Outlook, etc.) and create a new, secure one. For this, I recommend Proton.\n\n<center> https://protonmail.com/ </center>\n\n<center> https://media.licdn.com/media/AAEAAQAAAAAAAAYRAAAAJDM4ZTBiMjlkLWEyOTUtNDgzNi05ZDA5LTU2ODc2N2YxMjhhZA.png </center>\n\nI also recommend that you download the Google Authenticator App to your cell phone and use this in place of SMS authentication. \n\n## Step 2 - Create A Coinbase Account\n\nCoinbase is the best place to begin your crypto investing. Using your secure email, create an account.\n\n<center> https://www.coinbase.com </center>\n\n<center> https://i0.wp.com/www.bitcoin-millionaire.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Coinbase-homepage.jpg?resize=1080%2C517&ssl=1 </center>\n\nLink Coinbase to your designated bank account and transfer your fiat ($USD) into your Coinbase account. This will take roughly 5 days to clear your bank.\n\n\n## Step 3 - Sign into GDAX\nGDAX is Coinbase's exchange where you can set <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/executing-a-trade-with-limit-orders-investing\">limit orders</a> , whereas Coinbase itself only allows market orders. \n\nUnless you are desperately eager to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum or Litecoin, I recommend you enter your limit orders on GDAX. Sign into GDAX using your Coinbase credentials. \n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/gdax.jpg?w=3292</center> \n\nOnce logged into GDAX, click \"Deposit\" in the top-left. \n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/deposit.jpg?w=219&h=243 </center>\n\nTransfer USD funds from your Coinbase account into GDAX.\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/fund.jpg?w=376&h=309 </center>\n\nDefine the price you are willing to buy your Bitcoin or Ethereum at, and then submit a <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/executing-a-trade-with-limit-orders-investing\">limit order.</a> Once the order is filled, remove the funds from the GDAX exchange back into your Coinbase wallet.\n\n<i> The reason I do not say buy Litecoin is because Litecoin has a limited market for purchasing other crypto assets. That is not to say that you should not invest in Litecoin itself, but rather using Litecoin to purchase other cryptos is not nearly as easy as using Bitcoin or Ethereum. </i>\n\n## Step 3 - Create An Account at an Alt-Coin Exchange\nOnce you've accustomed yourself to transferring funds from your bank to Coinbase/GDAX and purchasing Bitcoin or Ethereum, (and/or Litecoin) then it is time to create an account at a cryptocurrency exchange that offers more than these 3 cryptos.\n\nThere are all sorts of exchanges, but I recommend you take a look at Bittrex or Bitfinex. \n\n<center> https://www.bittrex.com/ </center>\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/bittrex.jpg?w=1600 </center>\n\n<center> https://www.bitfinex.com/ </center>\n\n<center>  https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/bitfinex.png?w=2048  </center>\n\nOnce you've setup an account at one of these exchanges, you can transfer Bitcoin or Ethereum into your exchange wallet from your Coinbase wallet.\n\n### Note: Make sure to always check the URL of the website you are on, and the address of the generated wallet. There are scammers out there using phishing tactics to gain the login credentials and private wallet keys of crypto investors.\n<br>\nExecuting the transfer between Coinbase and the exchange (Bittrex/Bitfinex) will require you to login to both your Coinbase account and your Bittrex/Bitfinex account simultaneously. \n\nIn order to generate your Bittrex/Bitfinex wallet address, sign into your account and then click \"Wallet\".\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/bittrex-wallet1.jpg?w=1360 </center>\n\nInside your wallet area, you will have the ability to generate an address (if not already provided).\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/address.jpg?w=1396 </center>\n\nMeanwhile, in Coinbase, simply click on \"Accounts\" and then click \"Send\" next to your Bitcoin or Ethereum Wallet. You will see the following screen: \n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/coinbase.jpg?w=2290</center>\n\nTake the wallet address (yellow highlight) from your Bittrex/Bitfinex account and copy it into your Recipient Address in your Coinbase account. Review the wallet address in its entirety and then click submit. You will have a chance to review all of the information prior to your final order.\n\n### Note: For your first transaction, only transfer a small amount to confirm everything is properly working. Once you confirm everything is working you can send more funds as you see fit.\n<br>\nNow that you have funded your Bittrex/Bitfinex account with Bitcoin or Ethereum, you can begin buying other crypto assets. \n\n\n## Closing Comments:\nAt this point in time, the process laid out above seems to be the safest, most appropriate way to begin investing in cryptocurrency. While there other considerations to account for, you now know the basics on how to purchase crypto.\n\nThe next area I recommend you research is wallets and how to securely store your crypto assets once you've purchased them. Trezor has hardware wallets that protect some of the better known coins, but there are others that have unique wallet situations you have to research on your own. \n\n<center>https://trezor.io/</center>\n\nThe good news is that this research is only a quick search away. Happy crypto investing!\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n#### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies</a>",
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      "title": "How To Securely Invest In Cryptocurrency - A Beginner's Guide"
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      "body": "@@ -3186,41 +3186,28 @@\n  by \n-the shadow government/ deep state\n+nefarious intentions\n  if \n@@ -4320,86 +4320,8 @@\n %3E %0A%0A\n-## %3Ccenter%3E Please RESTEEM this article and spread the knowledge! %3C/center%3E%0A%0A%0A\n %0A%3Cce\n@@ -4671,24 +4671,29 @@\n  media, and \n+many \n others have \n@@ -4733,84 +4733,8 @@\n rs. \n-%3Ci%3E*Jeff Bezos%E2%80%99 WP contract with the CIA is $600 Million, not $6 Million%3C/i%3E\n %0A%0A##\n@@ -4830,34 +4830,8 @@\n 34 %0A\n-Our country is suffering. \n The \n@@ -4912,23 +4912,21 @@\n re s\n-tolen\n+iphoned\n  from \n-OUR \n publ\n@@ -5180,21 +5180,8 @@\n CIA \n-controls and \n mani\n@@ -5207,370 +5207,39 @@\n tic \n-system?%0A%0A### @ 36:49%0AWhy, despite your various strong feelings towards Trump, you ought to be rooting for him. %3Ci%3E(DISCLAIMER: I have no interest in political talk, I focus on larger, structural trends and this is possibly the most important trend of our time: Trump v. CIA)%3C/i%3E%0A%0A### @ 43:15%0AHow has Congress been compromised and why our vote no longer matters. \n+republic system?%0A%0A%0A### @ 43:15%0A\n The \n@@ -5248,16 +5248,21 @@\n A has a \n+firm \n grip on \n@@ -5413,60 +5413,55 @@\n :58%0A\n-Continuity of Government following 9/11. We are in a\n+Following 9/11, the US has been  in a perpetual\n  sta\n@@ -5513,17 +5513,18 @@\n nded\n-,\n+;\n  meaning\n+,\n  we \n@@ -5565,177 +5565,22 @@\n ocra\n-cy. %0A%0A### @ 1:04:52%0AWhat can we, as Americans, do to change this system and take down the Shadow Government?%0A%3Ci%3E(Answer: Demand reform of the CIA and fire Congress.)%3C/i%3E\n+tic republic. \n %0A%0A%3Cb\n",
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      "title": "CIA Whistleblower Spills The Beans On Everything"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Western culture is obsessed with convenience. It has been the single most influential characteristic  driving our economy ever since the Industrial Revolution. It is prevalent in our marketing for consumer goods, food, transportation, entertainment, health, and even romance. <I>Here is a trailer for Minimalism; I recommend everyone watch this, but for this article's purposes pay attention to the first 1:12 specifically. </I>\n\n<center> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Co1Iptd4p4 </center>\n\nRight now, the promise of Bitcoin is garnering significant attention because people think it is a convenient way to get rich. There is also a general sense that something is awry. The zeitgeist of post-911, post GFC is upon us (GFC referring to 2008 Great Recession). The populace has recognized that our government is <a href=\"https://steemit.com/news/@maven360/cia-whistleblower-spills-the-beans-on-everything-real-news\">no longer operating as it should.</a>  \n\nIn response, the prospect of having a currency other than our government-backed currency is an attractive one and it is gaining traction rapidly. \n\nHowever, most accepting that Bitcoin is a hedge against government-backed currency are missing the entire purpose of why cryptocurrency offers revolutionary potential. It offers the potential for us to return to a state of liberty, freedom, and most importantly, a value-based society instead of legislative-based. \n\n<center><i>\"The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.\"</i> — Tacitus</center>\n \n\nBitcoin is the earliest mover in a very influential space: decentralized money. Some may compare Bitcoin to AOL. Revolutionary at first, but in the long-term just the first step into something that is really much larger than just one company. Others may say it is the only cryptocurrency that will survive the \"purge\". I maintain a stance somewhere in between these arguments. \n\nCrypto is all about decentralization. So to think that just one or two cryptos will garner the market caps of an Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc. is misleading. The aforementioned companies operate with one goal in mind: centralization. Centralization of information. Particularly, our personal information. \n\nThese centralized companies have been co-opted by more nefarious parties to create a surveillance-state. What has been tested, refined, and optimized against our enemies in a war-time setting has been brought back to our country and used upon us, the people. <I> I recommend you watch the entire Vice Report below, but specifically pay attention to the 9:00 - 10:00 mark.</I>\n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucRWyGKBVzo</center>\n\nNow Bitcoin is being marketed as not only a way to get out of government backed fiat, but also a way to maintain some form of privacy. Bitcoin is anonymous, according to the media. Well guess what? It is not. In fact, it is easier to track because it all happens digitally. Meaning, the surveillance state that Snowden exposed has your IP Address, your operating system, your camera, your microphones, your wallet address, your transaction history, everything. If you are still worried about privacy today, and you are looking to Bitcoin as your solution, I recommend you stick to good old cash. Cash is still more private than Bitcoin, believe it or not.\n\nWhich brings me to my point. Cryptocurrency truly has the potential to be revolutionary at a time when governments across the world are working towards <a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-41100613\">outlawing</a> physical cash (meaning the paper in your wallet), all while promoting a narrative of digital assets being CONVENIENT and cash INCONVENIENT. Yes, that’s right. More of the same from the same entities that have been in power for decades. You cannot fault them for sticking to their guns, it has worked up until this point.\n\nAt the same time a number of independent digital assets are being created (while others are undoubtedly years away from being developed) that offer privacy AND convenience. These are the assets that I recommend you acquire because I suspect that just as the narrative towards Bitcoin has shifted this year (one from only drug dealers and terrorists use it to “moon-shot\" and \"$100k per coin\"), so too will the attitude of privacy being a priority over convenience. \n\nAll of the money entering the crypto space is simply buying Bitcoin to (1) speculate (2) buy other crypto assets or (3) hedge against government fiat. <i>(4) Institutional investors are also entering starter positions so that they are not the odd man out should Bitcoin truly moon shot. </i>\n\nThe narrative of government debts being unsustainable and unprecedented central bank manipulation of interest rates (and subsequently, that of <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\">bond markets</a>) having consequences is catching on. Yet, what I believe many fail to realize is that all of this sovereign debt, market manipulation, and consumerism based culture is driven by none other than convenience. Convenience is a benign concept on its own, however it is being used just as sex is in marketing. It is used to market us anything and everything, and it's effective. <i>Below is my favorite satirical portrayal of our obsession with convenience projected out into the future, the movie Wall-E. </I>\n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xToQ4cIHkk</center>\n\nAs folks come to realize that a life driven by consumption and convenience is an empty shell of an existence, only then will they realize that convenience is not such a benevolent thing to pursue. The things in life worth pursuing are often the ones that are more difficult. Make no mistake, it will be difficult for some to rid their lives of the Facebooks, Googles, Amazons, and others offering unparalleled convenience. Sadly, there are accounts of people becoming addicted to these conveniences. This is an example of how perverse our obsession with convenience has become.\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/sm-addiction.jpg?w=1646</center>\t\n\n### The thing to keep in mind is this: once the tipping point is reached (and it is rapidly approaching us my friends) then the narrative will become one of a deeper context. Instead of simply discussing superficial topics and avoiding the serious discussions, as a society, we will begin to engage in meaningful discussion. I believe that discussion will be based around privacy. Privacy over convenience. And yes, privacy and convenience, but in that order.\n<br>\nOnce this narrative shifts into the next chapter of privacy over convenience, then I look for assets that offer privacy to surge in value. Currently, the markets provide us with limited options for privacy.  My research currently includes the likes of Monero, Pivx, Cloakcoin, and Zcash in the crypto markets <i>and it is another reason why I am extremely bullish on <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/the-cheat-sheet-investing\">cybersecurity</a> in the equity markets.</i>  \n\nAt this point in time, we are still awaiting the regulatory green-light, so everything seems to be on hold in the crypto market. Nonetheless, rest assured that the next frontier in the this revolutionary landscape will be one of privacy, and assets that reflect this line of thinking will only increase in value moving forward in the long run. This is one of the largest, structural trends I currently foresee. Determining how long it will take to play out is an entirely different conversation, and one I do not feel equipped to touch on at this time.\n\nWhile many are just now stumbling onto the concept of decentralization, it seems this concept is still in its nascent stage. That is why analysts are projecting the market caps of centralized companies (FAANG's) onto these decentralized crypto companies and forecasting Bitcoin at $100K per token and specific ICO's as the new Google, the new Dropbox, the new JPMorgan, etc.\n\nThese forecasts are misguided because they are applying centralized business market caps onto decentralized business prospects, yet they are fundamentally correct in assuming capital will flow into the space because <i>this is the future.</i> As dynamic a market this is, my bet is that the next chapter in cryptocurrency will revolve around privacy. Privacy is what we all want (even if we are currently unaware), and we can package privacy into convenience and decentralization all at the same time.\n\n### Here is the best case scenario:\nThe marketplace maintains a number of companies/assets/cryptos (or whatever comes out the other side of regulation) that compete with one another, offer privacy, offer convenience, and do not require us to surrender our data and personal information, or at least limit it.\n\nWhile we are still in the first phase of this technology where we are determining the legal framework, exploring the possible applications, and identifying which of the current cryptocurrencies and ICO's are legitimate, it seems that the next phase will be driven by privacy and convenience. If we simply allow the market to be driven by convenience alone, then it seems the revolutionary potential of the blockchain technology has been lost on the masses and we will have more of the same.\n\nStay informed my friends.\n<br>\n\n\n<i>\"The older I get, the more I realize the value of privacy, cultivating your circle, and only letting certain people in. You can be open, honest, and real while still understanding not everyone deserves a seat at the table of your life.\"</i> — Unknown \n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies.</a>",
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      "title": "The Cultivation Of Convenience"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "<center> <i> Are crypto investors driven by short-term ROI or by “crypto bug” marketing? </i></center>\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/day-trader.png?w=690 </center>\n\n ## <center> VS. </center>\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/body-armor.jpg?w=1300 </center>\n\nMeaning, are individuals simply chasing yield, or are they finding a community/belief system that they identify with and want to be a part of? \n\nI have <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/is-the-crypto-market-currently-in-a-bubble-crypto-investing\">already addressed </a>the fact that speculators are entering the crypto markets in pursuit of high yield in a low yield environment. These individuals are being driven, most likely, by FOMO (fear of missing out) on what has been the best investment of the decade. \n\nAt the same time, we have increasingly more individuals coming into the space due to many of the characteristics that are used to describe the typical gold bug: individuals who are skeptical of central banks and governments, believe that fiat currencies are over-indebted and inflationary, and are convinced the longer-term ultimately  holds higher prices for crypto.\n\nDetermining which of these types of individuals are driving the crypto markets would be an interesting factor to understand. It is safe to assume that like anything else, we have people from each of these groups, and many far and in-between currently participating in the crypto markets. \n\nUndoubtedly, we have experienced (and are still experiencing) speculators overextending themselves and dumb money flooding into the space simply because the yield in the space surpasses that of every other asset class by a mile. \n\nYet, I have also observed an increasing number of people beginning to understand the fact that our fiat system is not as stable as once thought. Various things are bringing people into this line of thinking, including: \n\n- ### Political Events\n   Trump's election shook a lot of people's confidence in the system. We have yet to see any of his campaign promises come to fruition,  including tax reform and infrastructure spending. Not only are anti-Trump folks feeling disenfranchised from the system, but so are Trump supporters who have yet to see the things they voted for realized. \n\n- ### Geopolitical Events\n   This one is pretty self-explanatory. Geopolitical friction leads to uncertainty (and soon thereafter, volatility) in the markets, and there is no shortage of friction between the US government and the governments of North Korea, China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Yemen, and <a href=\"http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4453666/The-world-war-Interactive-map-reveals-conflicts.html\">others.</a>\n\n- ### Economic Events\n   The Fed goes on with its charade that everything is fine and the economy is growing. According to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, we will <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen/feds-yellen-expects-no-new-financial-crisis-in-our-lifetimes-idUSKBN19I2I5\">not experience a financial fallout \"in our lifetimes\"</a>. As the Fed continues with its business-as-usual demeanor, more and more people are losing confidence in the Fed's ability to unwind its bond market manipulation.\n\n    At the same time, our federal government is broke and it continually kicks the debt ceiling can down the road putting off the inevitable. <a href=\"http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/29/investing/illinois-budget-crisis-downgrade/index.html\">State governments</a> and <a href=\"http://www.governing.com/gov-data/municipal-cities-counties-bankruptcies-and-defaults.html\">individual municipalities</a> are flirting with default, pension funds are coming up short, companies are buying back their stock in record amounts just to keep the pump going, and <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/business/dealbook/toys-r-us-bankruptcy.html?mcubz=1\">high-profile bankruptcies </a> are beginning to emerge. \n\n- ### Post-2008 GFC Ideology \n  To put the icing on the cake, people have experienced first hand what the government's priority is when an economic collapse occurs. The priority is to ensure the banking system survives at all costs and the all-mighty USD reigns supreme, even if this means wiping out lifetime savings and placing working Americans in dire situations.\n\n  In my opinion, this first-hand experience is the most important factor in people looking for options outside of the fiat system. People have not forgotten that they will be left out to dry during the next contractionary market event, and as a result, the concept of hedging outside of cash has become an area of high interest. \n\n<i> As a side note, the major dark horse in the spread of these narratives is the internet. There are now more people than ever analyzing how things work and communicating their ideas back and forth. Ask any major analyst, journalist, investor, etc. how many people are aware of a specific event or catalyst and they will tell you that it’s a lot more than the days of pre-internet. </i>\n\n<i>It is good to note here that the internet also spreads ignorance, FUD, and FOMO like no other instrument known to man. As people are beginning to understand some of the deeper contexts within our global economy and the powers at play in the world of currency, money, wealth, etc. there are inevitably others going further and further away from the truth by following unreliable sources and biased, sensationalized news events.</i>\n\nBack to the discussion of short-term speculator and \"crypto bug\"...\n\nIt is important to realize that much of the volatility in the space is being driven by speculators, the short-term investors. This ebb and flow is natural, yet given the miniscule market caps of some of these assets, it should be to no surprise that a strategically sized order can influence dumb money to follow suit, amplifying the swings on the chart. So, while short-term traders are constantly in and out, the dumb money is likely leaving limit orders in on the exchange and amplifying whatever the speculators are initiating.\n\nWhile these short-term investors are constantly in and out of the market and looking to pick up any weakness to flip, we have what seems to be more people investing by the mantra: \n<center><i>Buy and Hold (“hodl”) </i></center>\n\nLike gold bugs, these folks are accepting the volatility associated with the cryptocurrency market because they are confident that these alternative assets will gain in value as the value of fiat diminishes over the years. They are willing to take on any volatility because they are in for the long haul, as are many gold bugs. For better or worse, like gold bugs, they are characterized by always holding, and buying larger positions during any weakness. Gold bugs meet your fellow bugs, the crypto bugs. \n\n<center> https://media.giphy.com/media/3otPoOJJsB2a1C9sNW/giphy.gif </center>\n\nThis should be of no surprise to many of you, and you’re likely thinking to yourself, <i>Ok so what’s the point of this post?</i>\n\n#### Here’s the nuts and bolts:\n####  It does not truly matter what is driving investment into cryptocurrency. As the old adage goes, “Any press is good press”. So whatever the reason for an individual to buy into cryptocurrency, it does not truly matter. The fact is that whomever purchases crypto then becomes a part of the network effect, and the network alone is what drives value in any currency. <i>Take a look at the US Petrodollar structure and ask yourself why it's valuable. Is it, perhaps, because it is used everywhere in the world and backed by the US military? In other words, because it has a global network backed by a daunting security force? </i>\n\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/network-effect.jpg?w=1420</center>\n\nSure, some may buy crypto, get burned, and go on to tell everyone that they should avoid the space at all costs. In the process of doing so, they will inevitably expose more people to the crypto bug narrative and more people will look to crypto instead of gold when things naturally turn south.\n\nThe other scenario (and what is happening for the past several months) is that people are making healthy gains in their crypto portfolios and telling their close friends and family members to get some skin in the game. These individuals are amplifying the network effect because they are leading by example. This network effect will only be intensified as we move into the holiday season and people will be more closely interacting with friends, families and acquaintances. \n\nEither way we look at this phenomenon, I believe it is bullish. Investors who are losing money may not agree, but I think it is safe to bet that even if they go out and tell everyone not to buy crypto, they will consequently convince some of their audience to begin looking into crypto a bit more. Of this initial audience, it seems that at least a portion of them would be enticed to enter the market and disregard the warning calls. They will connect with the crypto bug community, or perhaps think they have a unique angle to make some money.\n\nAs for the investors that are making money, when the market goes down, the crypto bugs are buying larger positions because nothing has changed for them on the long-term view. On the other hand, when the price goes up, these crypto bugs are saying: <i>Look I told you so. You need to get in and be a part of this.</i> \n\nIt is bringing more people into the space (and thereby exposing more people to the prospect of becoming a crypto bug), even if the timing may be off and a seeming correction may be looming. It does not matter, because once people structure their crypto accounts , research assets, purchase them, and store them on hardware wallets, they are paving the way for mass acceptance. Regardless of what happens to Bitcoin, I see few people exiting the crypto marketplace permanently once they’ve entered. \n\nSure, individuals will buy at the top and sell near the bottom as in any other market, and then promise to never enter the marketplace again. However, I think it is safe to assume that by the time the crypto market corrects and rebounds, the narrative of fallacy fiat and unserviceable debts maturing will reach new heights.\n\nAlso, it is worth mentioning that it does not appear that people are going to lose everything should crypto markets experience a severe correction surrounding regulation. Meaning, even if we all do experience a hair cut in our crypto portfolios, are we going to be so fed up that we never invest in the space again? I find this scenario unlikely. \n\nIt takes an event like 08/09 GFC for people to fully abandon a marketplace. The type of event where people lose half of their lifetime savings in a few months’ time. This is the sort of thing that cause people to exit the market and never return, not a quick correction in a small portfolio of “internet money” that should be understood as high-risk, highly volatile in the first place.\n<br>\n<I>“There is only one thing in life worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.”</I> — Oscar Wilde \n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n#### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies</a>",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "cryptocurrencies",
      "permlink": "short-term-profiteering-v-crypto-bug-gone-viral-crypto-investing",
      "title": "Is The Crypto Market Driven By Marketing?"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -4857,18 +4857,17 @@\n small th\n-is\n+e\n  crypto \n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"format\":\"markdown\",\"links\":[\"https://www.mql5.com/en/users/an0nym0us\",\"\\nhttps://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/the-cheat-sheet-investing\\n\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"tags\":[\"ocd-resteem\",\"investing\",\"cryptocurrency\"],\"image\":[\"https://c.mql5.com/1/66/bb.jpg\"]}",
      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "discussion",
      "permlink": "standing-the-middle-ground-musing-crypto-investing",
      "title": "Standing The Middle Ground"
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  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:35:27",
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{
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -7378,20 +7378,16 @@\n shion.%0A%0A\n-### \n Keep an \n@@ -7446,33 +7446,308 @@\n fic \n-investment vehicles.%0A%3Cbr%3E\n+ETF%E2%80%99s. %0A%0A%3Ci%3ESpeaking about keeping an eye out, where was everyone at in %3Ca href=%22https://steemit.com/discussion/@maven360/standing-the-middle-ground-musing-crypto-investing%22 target=%22_blank%22%3Emy last post?%3C/a%3E  My intention was to get a discussion going, but all I heard was crickets. Buehler? %3C/i%3E%0A%0A%0A%0A\n %0A%0A%3Ci\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\",\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrencies/@maven360/short-term-profiteering-v-crypto-bug-gone-viral-crypto-investing\",\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/learning-how-about-earning-investing-part-1\",\"https://www.csis.org/regions/asia/china\",\"https://steemit.com/discussion/@maven360/standing-the-middle-ground-musing-crypto-investing\",\"https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Frenemy\"],\"image\":[\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/ura.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/tan-etf.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/remx.jpg?w=676\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmcFLCci5JDjZHxZN6RRirF5VY3WmshZH8PTUVQCsLDroC/don%27tunderstandbitcoin.jpg\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmP3QkmzdXV74TiYF6ZaoHUKAQ5L3kzMjPEXKSsbojVNrM/image.png\"],\"tags\":[\"cryptocurrency\",\"ocd-resteem\",\"discussion\"]}",
      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "investing",
      "permlink": "derivatives-etf-s-and-china-crypto-investing",
      "title": "Derivatives, ETF's & China – Where Crypto's Next Catalyst Lies"
    }
  ],
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:35:12",
  "trx_id": "314041e422bc29ed502e388f41ce54babd1efaf2",
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{
  "block": 38693361,
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "<i> “Using volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is 1) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or 2) the risk of inadequate return.” – Charlie Munger</i>\n \n<center>https://assets.blackrock.com/uk-retail-assets/cache-1494609248000/images/media-bin/web/retail/emea/uk/chart-of-the-week/vix-volatility-index.jpg</center>\n\n<center><a href=\" https://assets.blackrock.com/uk-retail-assets/cache-1494609248000/images/media-bin/web/retail/emea/uk/chart-of-the-week/vix-volatility-index.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Source</a></center>\n\nThe chart above is commonly misunderstood. You see, the VIX is often referred to as the “fear gauge”, the indicator that reflects perceived market volatility. With the VIX at record lows, many market pundits are pounding the table that volatility will wreak havoc on the markets in 2018 and the VIX will spike. \n\nThis may very well prove true, but I will explain how regardless of this index and general market volatility, the crypto market stands to benefit as institutional money enters the space.\n\n### For the sake of understanding, it is also worth explaining what the VIX index really is. Many believe the VIX accurately reflects the market’s perception of volatility. However, what the index is really is a compilation of pricing on near-dated options; 30 days to be exact. It is an index of volatility on 1 month until expiration at the money puts and calls on stocks in the major indices. \n<br>\n\nSo, rather than considering all of the complexities in the market that may lead to volatility (i.e. geopolitical, social, macroeconomic, natural disaster, etc.) all VIX takes into account is what the pricing looks like for near-dated options in the public equity market. \n\nNot such a reliable indicator then, is it? Like any other indicator it is useful when combined with a more holistic view, but on its own it’s practically worthless.\n\n### Let’s now dive into how VIX and, more importantly, volatility (or lack thereof) plays directly into a bullish scenario for the crypto markets. \n<br>\n\nWhile the stock prices for US Banks like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Citigroup have all been rising this past year their trading desks have all been posting double digit declines. \n\nWhy is this? Because volatility is at such a low extreme in the equity and bond markets so there is little room to navigate as a trader. There is little room to manipulate the markets and let momentum and public narrative work its wonders, in other words.\n\nTraders love volatility because it allows market conditions to over-swing one way, oversold, and then soon thereafter revert the other direction towards overbought.  Traders live and breathe these markets and understand better than anyone else when these conditions exist, and they profit from them at the expense of the people who are easily shaken from positions and buy at tops. \n\nThe fact that the best traders in the world are posting double digit losses tells me one thing: these trading desks are starving for volatility. They need volatility to stack the cards in their favor, to gain an advantage over us retail investors. \n\n<center> ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdfNXPnSr6XrP4cJFt3kPjUUVEqSNMWgZVJJX9QY9a7rk/image.png)</center>\n\n<center><a href=\" https://www.wsj.com/articles/goldman-retreats-from-options-as-stock-derivatives-trading-struggles-1509701404\" target=\"_blank\">Full Article</a> </center>\n\nCrypto markets offer volatility more so than any other asset class out there. I expect banks to immediately setup trading desks dedicated entirely to  crypto markets and begin operating in the space by buying weakness and selling strength, on repeat. Of course, they will be colluding with mainstream media to make sure they swindle the maximum profits out of the current structure as they do in any other market.\n\n As more of these trading desks come into the space, they will be competing with one another, and this will have the effect of leveling off volatility. Goldman Sachs has already announced the initiation of a crypto dedicated trading desk, and it’s safe to assume the other banks are not too far behind.\n\n<center> ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmb4z6yowGeavdvxAJZMaZjc2XXaZpcS4DQc9jCR19jQML/image.png)</center>\n\n<center><a href=\" https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/goldman-sachs-launching-trading-desk-for-bitcoin-report-says.html\" target=\"_blank\">Full Article</a> </center>\n\n\n\nAnother very important piece of the banker trading desk puzzle to consider is regulation on trading desks since 2008. Following the financial crisis, regulators made it so banks must keep a higher ratio of capital on hand to cover operations in their trading desks. In other words, they put trading desks on tighter leashes by limiting leverage, and banks are obsessed with leverage. Leverage allows them to make more money on fees from the same amount of capital on hand. \n\n### Enter crypto at a time when yield starved trading desks are looking for volatility, the opportunity to create leverage, and a market that is easy to manipulate. Voila! \n\n<i>Okay, so what? Trading desks do not control the fate of trillions of dollars, merely billions. *hint of sarcasm here, but nonetheless, a fair observation...</i>\n\nNow let me explain why the real money will also come pouring into crypto markets, and by real, I mean the funds with trillions in assets. In short, it is also because short volatility is an overcrowded trade and nobody has any sense of what the broad market will do once this crowded trade breaks up.\n\nWall Street understands that volatility will not remain where it is for much longer. Naturally, they are looking to hedge their short volatility positions, and they will be looking for vehicles to synthetically go long volatility. Since long VIX is extremely overpriced, what better way to go long VIX than to go long the most volatile asset class possible, crypto?\n\nYet, this asset class can not only be volatile, it must also be proven to be uncorrelated to other asset classes in case of a broader market decline.\n\n<center> ![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmbuN7bsV28X3CBUeDb6xtdbFgFvKC2DA2LD7SwLETPvEe/image.png) </center>\n\n<center><a href=\" https://btcmanager.com/research-portfolios-are-augmented-with-bitcoin/\" target=\"_blank\">Full Article</a> </center>\n\nWhen a source as credible as the World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology comes out and states that adding Bitcoin to a portfolio offers better risk-adjusted returns you know that Wall St is going to pay a lot of attention to it, and they are going to use it in their marketing campaigns to bolster their assets under management. \n\n### Never forget that Wall St makes its money based on assets under management (AUM), so it is in their best interest to increase this number relentlessly. They will develop narratives and peddle them to potential customers in hopes of luring their assets in under their management in an effort to maximize their profits from fees.\n<br>\nNot only does crypto offer banksters the advantage of owning a highly asymmetrical asset, but it also fits into their quest for low-beta (smart beta, as they call it), diversified portfolios. This is why the money managers with the serious money will begin allocating smaller portions (say 5%) of their funds to crypto in pursuit of an uncorrelated asset and one with high upside. \n\n### Conclusion:\nBanks and institutions are coming to the crypto space. In fact, some have already done so. But equilibrium has not been reached yet and the line waiting to get in is pretty long. \n\n\n![lines.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVtKydNxrs6Luo8Doag1vpmnKLqPgm6Kxd8anXrNr7a2q/lines.jpg)\n\n<center><a href=\"https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-VY783_iphone_M_20171103152624.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Source</a> </center>\n\n\n\nTrading desks are fretting over their dismal performance in 2017, and they will be looking at the volatility offered in crypto as an opportunity to scalp profits in an immature, unsophisticated marketplace that is easily manipulated. They are likely frothing over this setup, it is almost too easy.\n\nMore importantly, the funds controlling trillions of dollars in savings are beginning to accept the narrative that Bitcoin and crypto offer value to a diversified investment fund. Namely, it is uncorrelated to the broad market and offers huge upside in an environment where yields are at historic lows. At least, this will be the narrative they push unto the general public in hopes of garnering more assets under management.\n\nStay informed my friends, and grab your popcorn! We will experience many things in 2018, but boredom will not be one of them.\n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\",\"links\":[\" https://assets.blackrock.com/uk-retail-assets/cache-1494609248000/images/media-bin/web/retail/emea/uk/chart-of-the-week/vix-volatility-index.jpg\",\" https://www.wsj.com/articles/goldman-retreats-from-options-as-stock-derivatives-trading-struggles-1509701404\",\" https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/goldman-sachs-launching-trading-desk-for-bitcoin-report-says.html\",\" https://btcmanager.com/research-portfolios-are-augmented-with-bitcoin/\",\"https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-VY783_iphone_M_20171103152624.jpg\"],\"image\":[\"https://assets.blackrock.com/uk-retail-assets/cache-1494609248000/images/media-bin/web/retail/emea/uk/chart-of-the-week/vix-volatility-index.jpg\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmdfNXPnSr6XrP4cJFt3kPjUUVEqSNMWgZVJJX9QY9a7rk/image.png\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmb4z6yowGeavdvxAJZMaZjc2XXaZpcS4DQc9jCR19jQML/image.png\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmbuN7bsV28X3CBUeDb6xtdbFgFvKC2DA2LD7SwLETPvEe/image.png\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmVtKydNxrs6Luo8Doag1vpmnKLqPgm6Kxd8anXrNr7a2q/lines.jpg\"],\"tags\":[\"investing\",\"volatility\",\"macro\",\"ocd-resteem\"]}",
      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "cryptocurrency",
      "permlink": "volatility-you-vixen-why-vol-is-crypto-s-best-friend",
      "title": "Volatility, You Vixen - Why Vol Is Crypto’s Best Friend"
    }
  ],
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:35:00",
  "trx_id": "6a2d045a73948678d5ed2ca46231a43f8658baa7",
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{
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  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Longtime readers know I am bullish on cybersecurity simply because it does not yet exist. Cybersecurity is the single most exciting area of high tech because everything our modern society operates on is somehow linked to the cyber world, and the market for cybersecurity is still in its infant stages with no clear, emerging winners. \n\n### <i>“There are only two types of companies: those that have been hacked and those that will be.” – FBI Director Robert Mueller (2012) </i>\n<br>\nEverything we know and take for granted is exposed to exploitation by any individual or collective group with the technical and practical knowledge on how to do so. I want you to truly reflect on this because everything from water supply to electricity to communications is exposed to cyber exploitation, and once basic utilities go so does everything associated with it from a social perspective.\n\n## With the emergence of state-sponsored hacking tools being released to public domain, it is apparent that offenses are much better equipped than existing defenses. \n<br>\nCybersecurity defenses are a reactionary force; a breach is only recognized once the offensive force has breached and escaped, more often than not without detection. In other words, cyber is a defenseless space because those who have the resources and drive to exploit via enhanced offensive techniques can have their way with defenses that are reactionary.\n\nNY Times wrote an article that warrants reading on what our national cybersecurity forces are up against.\n\n<center>![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmaR5kv3J9o33FxvUNSE2wHQEHRu8BqdVxxSXmVwTpFkej/image.png)</center>\n\n<center><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/12/us/nsa-shadow-brokers.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top-stories&_r=0&mtrref=undefined\" target=\"_blank\">Full Article</a></center>\n\nRight now, the problem is that cybersecurity is perceived to be a defensive industry, yet it has shown us repeatedly that cybersecurity defense is lagging cyber offense techniques. The reason for this is simple: there’s more money to be made in offense than defense.\n\nYet, we now stand at a point in time where this narrative is shifting. Defense is becoming less about making sure emails cannot be stolen and more of a necessity for a functional economy, infrastructure, and even a nation-state as we know it. As I stated earlier, cybersecurity is the security force that stands between the “evil”, exogenous forces, and our functional society. Unfortunately, the \"evil\", exogenous forces have the upper hand.\n\nNot only that, but we now stand at a point where everyone is so vulnerable that anyone can hack into anyone's personal affairs, it does not necessarily have to be a computer-savvy expert. All sorts of hacking kits and phishing schemes are for sale online nowadays, meaning that anyone can hack anyone if they have the will to do so.\n\nThis applies to everyone who has any sort of online presence, which is everyone. You are exposed, even if you think you are not, and this applies especially to cryptocurrency investors. \n\nI picture the state of cyber much like this clip from <i>We Were Soldiers</i>, it’s a broken arrow situation of utter chaos.  <i>Be advised clip consists of military combat.</i>\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctnK7wdJmAo\n\nI have long felt that a hack of Coinbase was inevitable, simply since no defense has proven impenetrable, not even that of US Military Cyber Command. If our most sophisticated cyber experts are unable to secure assets and information, what makes you think that a bunch of private citizens working at a startup are any more capable? Throw into the mix that the incentive to hack Coinbase is simply too large to ignore now following the rise in value of digital assets, and it appears quite clear that a cyber Black Swan event is due. \n\n## Scary, I know, but the moment we realize that we are all exposed is the moment that we realize all we can do in this environment is make sure we are not the low hanging fruit. Make yourself as difficult to hack and exploit as possible. \n<br>\nFor investors looking to enter the crypto marketplace, I highly recommend you revisit my How To Post, <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/how-to-invest-in-cryptocurrency-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">here.</a> \n\nWhile I have been perusing the traditional beginning of 2018 market predictions, mine is straightforward:\n\n# <center> Coinbase will experience a major breach inside of 12 months. </center>\n<br>\n \n<center>https://www.coinbase.com/img/og-home.jpg</center>\n\n<center><a href=\"https://www.coinbase.com/img/og-home.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Source</a></center>\n\nThe ramifications when this occurs are anybody’s guess. Undoubtedly, the broad crypto market will decline substantially, and only those who fully understand the space and its history will survive; those who comprehend the importance of taking personal responsibility for securing one’s own assets, private keys, security phrases, etc. \n\nIf you have yet to do so already, now is a time to take some profits off the table and purchase yourself a hardware wallet. <a href=\"https://trezor.io/\" target=\"_blank\">Trezor</a> and <a href=\"https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/ledger-nano-s\" target=\"_blank\">Ledger</a> are just a few of the options I recommend you research further on your own. \n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.\n\n<br>\n\n![Quotefancy-2021624-3840x2160 (1).jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPhKmdEEKv4NJyDxS9sb6EDGFJ8Zd5cyy4EHQgmE1Ufjc/Quotefancy-2021624-3840x2160%20(1).jpg)",
      "json_metadata": "{\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\",\"links\":[\"https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/12/us/nsa-shadow-brokers.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top-stories&_r=0&mtrref=undefined\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctnK7wdJmAo\",\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/how-to-invest-in-cryptocurrency-crypto-investing\",\"https://www.coinbase.com/img/og-home.jpg\",\"https://trezor.io/\",\"https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/ledger-nano-s\"],\"image\":[\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmaR5kv3J9o33FxvUNSE2wHQEHRu8BqdVxxSXmVwTpFkej/image.png\",\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/ctnK7wdJmAo/0.jpg\",\"https://www.coinbase.com/img/og-home.jpg\",\"https://steemitimages.com/DQmPhKmdEEKv4NJyDxS9sb6EDGFJ8Zd5cyy4EHQgmE1Ufjc/Quotefancy-2021624-3840x2160%20(1).jpg\"],\"tags\":[\"predictions\",\"cybersecurity\",\"macro\",\"ocd-resteem\"]}",
      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "blackswan",
      "permlink": "broken-arrow-coinbase-hacked-in-12-months",
      "title": "“Broken Arrow” - Leading Exchange Hack Black Swan(s)"
    }
  ],
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:34:48",
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{
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    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "I am a big believer that our world would be a much better place if everyone paid more attention to finance and economics, in their own personal lives and in a general sense. I have long said that to really understand the way in which our society operates one must <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/anyone-can-invest-successfully-do-experts-exist\" target=\"_blank\">follow the money.</a>\n\nFellow readers should also understand my conviction that it is everyone’s duty to take responsibility for their own finances. Everyone has the same goal in mind: achieve financial independence. \n\nThis independence allows one to shift focus away from a life of 9-5 work to pay bills, acquire more material items, and pursue happiness via a <a href=\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">life of convenience.</a>  This mentality is fading, as it has proven to us repeatedly that it is not the path towards happiness. \n\nThe best things in life are those that are often the most difficult. This is a bit of a cliché, but often I find clichés to hold truth; after all, there is a reason they’ve become clichés. Clichés have been repeated so many times and passed down through several generations that we tend to take their meaning for granted. \n\nLogic tells us that these clichés offer up some truth in a world that is increasingly doubting the validity of anything and everything (see fake news).\n\nSpeaking of clichés, here are a couple of my favorites….\n\n<center><i><b>“You give a poor man a fish and you feed him for a day. You teach him to fish and you give him an occupation that will feed him for a lifetime.”</b></i></center>\n\n<center><i><b>“A penny saved is a penny earned.”</b></i></center>\n\nAnd moving into deeper water, here are some of my favorite quotes with respect to the relationship between education and money…\n\n<center><i><b>“Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.” </b></i>\n-- MLK, Jr.</center> \n\n<center><i><b>“Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world” </b></i>\n -- Nelson Mandela </center>\n\nThe reason I provide the quotes above is because they so eloquently put into words exactly what I will be explaining in this post. In short, all that stands between you and financial independence is a simple understanding that you must educate yourself on the single most important facet of survival in our modern society, money. More specifically, <i>your</i> money and personal finances.\n\nWall Street and the financial apparatus surrounding it like to intimidate us, the humble American civilians, with use of complex-sounding jargon, acronyms, formulas, algorithms, terms like “smart-Beta”, and all sorts of nonsense.\n\nI appreciate that beginning the quest to understand finance, investing, and economics is a daunting one. \n\nThe reality of the situation is that it is no different than any other subject; all it requires is time and dedication. Think back to some of your most challenging courses in high school, university, or wherever you feel you have learned the most, and recount how you felt on the first day.\n\nReviewing the syllabus, you likely asked yourself…\n\n<i> “What the hell is this material about?”</i>\n\n<i>“Will I succeed, or will I struggle with this?”</i>\n\n<i>“What if everyone else here gets it right away and I am the only one who doesn’t?”</i>\n\nEach of us ask ourselves these very questions, in some size or shape, anytime we commence exploring a new area of knowledge.\n\nUnfortunately, it has been my personal experience that even the brightest of minds somehow fall into the trap of believing personal finances, investing, economics, or anything money-related is a different learning process compared to other topics. \n\nI am talking about some very intelligent individuals, too. People involved in very complex matters in a wide-ranging set of industries. Yet, they somehow fail to see the importance of educating themselves about money.  \n\nAt the same time, I have met my fair share of people like this guy… \n \n<center>https://i.redd.it/s0jumk2mxp101.jpg</center>\n\nWall Street and the individuals who study these very topics somehow have an edge on us; it is a specialized set of knowledge, we had better leave it to the experts, right?\n\nI have long said that experts do not exist. They do not. After all, human understanding is a subjective measure and the rules we operate under are constantly changing. This includes everything from scientific law, mathematics, and health to psychology, biology, a countless list of others, and of course, money and our monetary system. \n\nIn the world of finance, these so-called experts throw around terminology that is purposefully designed to sound complicated, intelligent, and difficult to learn. Fortunately, everyone I have encountered understands basic arithmetic damn well, and at the core of all this talk of economics, pension gaps, wage increases, Fed rates, debt loads, etc. lies such a simple, fundamental equation that we often mistake it as just another cliché. \n\n## <center> Income – Expenses = Savings </center>\n<br>\n\nThis equation underpins all of Wall Street’s models, projections, and all “expert” jargon. In fact, I reckon the real reason financial analysts speak in such industry-specific speech is because they are all hiding from the simplicity of this equation, and once the façade of being a financial wizard dissipates they will be out of what is a very high-paying job. \n\nThere is a reason they are referred to as the “wolves of wall street”. Essentially, they arbitrage people’s misunderstanding of the simplicity of it all and charge up the ass in fees for doing what you’d be better served doing on your own.\n\n \n<center> https://retiringfed.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/wolf-in-sheeps-clothing.jpg </center>\n\nWithout trying to sound like a father figure, we all know that savings is the sum net present value of work we have completed to date. The more we have saved, the less we must work in the future. \n\nMost people think of their savings pool as a fund meant for spending on items often materialistic in nature. Things like cars, homes, clothes, and vacations. There is no doubt savings must be used to pay for things like food, shelter, and enjoyment.\n\nHowever, I often sense that people do not truly appreciate the fact that savings is really a way to reduce how much future work you must do. Sticking with this whole cliché thing…\n\n<center><i><b>“A penny saved is a penny earned.”</b></i></center>\n\nFor every dollar in income you earn and save, that is a future dollar that you do not need to earn. Of course, our survivalist human nature compels us to go and make the future dollar anyways to better our situation even further, but with the current amount of outstanding consumer debt currently in our economy, I truly doubt the everyday American understands what savings really represent.  \n\nIs this the flag we now pledge our allegiance to? Makes me wonder sometimes…\n \n<center>http://www.wakingtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/corporate-american-flag-1.png</center>\n\nOur consumer-driven economy has brainwashed us all into thinking that we are better off spending our savings on material things rather than saving. I have gone into detail on this very topic in my previous post, <a href=\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">here.</a> \n\nGetting back to the importance of education related to money, I want to reiterate the following:\n\n## To think that there is an individual other than yourself who has more intrinsic motivation to grow your capital – and achieve financial independence on your behalf – is foolish and naïve. You must always ask yourself, “What incentive does this person, other than me, have to grow my capital for me?”\n<br>\nThe simple answer is that they don’t give a damn. They are out to maximize their own personal savings, not yours. And the way they do this is by charging fees to you for their services as an “expert”, as a financial wizard.\n\nThe only person who you can rely on when it comes to achieving financial independence is yourself, and the first step you must take is learning about finance, investing, economics, and all other ancillaries of MONEY. \n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.\n\n \n<center>https://pas-wordpress-media.s3.amazonaws.com/content/uploads/2014/09/MoneyQuotes.017.jpg</center>\n\nImage Sources:\nhttps://i.redd.it/s0jumk2mxp101\nhttps://retiringfed.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/wolf-in-sheeps-clothing\nhttp://www.wakingtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/corporate-american-flag-1\nhttps://pas-wordpress-media.s3.amazonaws.com/content/uploads/2014/09/MoneyQuotes.017",
      "json_metadata": "{\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\",\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/anyone-can-invest-successfully-do-experts-exist\",\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\",\"https://i.redd.it/s0jumk2mxp101\",\"https://retiringfed.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/wolf-in-sheeps-clothing\",\"http://www.wakingtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/corporate-american-flag-1\",\"https://pas-wordpress-media.s3.amazonaws.com/content/uploads/2014/09/MoneyQuotes.017\"],\"image\":[\"https://i.redd.it/s0jumk2mxp101.jpg\",\"https://retiringfed.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/wolf-in-sheeps-clothing.jpg\",\"http://www.wakingtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/corporate-american-flag-1.png\",\"https://pas-wordpress-media.s3.amazonaws.com/content/uploads/2014/09/MoneyQuotes.017.jpg\"],\"tags\":[\"money\",\"learning\",\"writing\",\"ocd-resteem\"]}",
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      "parent_permlink": "education",
      "permlink": "the-arbitrage-of-intimidation-and-misunderstanding",
      "title": "The Arbitrage Of Intimidation & Misunderstanding"
    }
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  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:34:06",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "My <a href=\"https://steemit.com/macro/@maven360/co-opted-central-banks-princes-of-the-yen\" target=\"_blank\">last</a>  investment post touched on why I think the <a href=\"https://steemit.com/macro/@maven360/co-opted-central-banks-princes-of-the-yen\" target=\"_blank\">melt up remains intact</a>  for cryptocurrencies. Now I will go into more detail on why I believe commodities offer us considerable upside in the years to come, as well. \n\nIn light of the recent market pullback, it seems the narrative of the Fed Put is diminishing in its power. Pundits and analysts who have known nothing but decreasing interest rates and a 30 year winning trade in bonds are slowly awakening to the fact that their job is about to get much more difficult.\n\nRather than simply parking assets in bonds and stocks and letting the Fed’s stimulus provide you with a free lunch everyday, fund managers and analysts are now going to begin searching for ways to capitalize on a dynamic, changing, unprecedented market setup. \n\n<center><i>Are bonds still safe?</i></center>\n\n<center><i>Are equities due for a correction?</i></center>\n\n<center><i>Will a selloff in bonds carry over into equities, or will capital fleeing from bonds simply find a home in dividend paying stocks?</i></center>\n\n<center><i>Will central banks get what they desire in their plan to normalize bond markets?</i></center>\n\nThese are all questions worth asking. Yet, how does one position to profit from these stories unfolding? Well, like you, I have no clue what is going to happen, and unless you have a friend with a crystal ball, you’ll have to make an educated guess.\n\nHere’s mine:\n\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/commodities.jpg?w=1496</center>\n\n<center><a href=\"https://katusaresearch.com/chart-45-years-making-commodities-vs-sp500/\" target=\"_blank\">Source</a></center> \n \nWhile it’s impossible to tell where markets go from here, I have a difficult time finding an argument against commodities going up. There is simply too much in favor of this trend playing out over the coming years, which will see commodity prices increase materially compared to where they are today.\n\nSome of these trends are:\n-\tInflation\n-\tIncrease in Trade Wars (see tariffs)\n-\tFixed Income Blow Up (bonds are scary)\n-\tReversion to the Mean \n-\tAlready in an Uptrend \n\nSome may look at the chart above and say that the ratio does not matter because it could mean that equities are so severely overvalued that the ratio is skewed. I agree, it is likely that the ratio is at an outlying extreme because equities are artificially expensive, while commodities are undervalued. So, while equities are likely to come down in price, commodities are also poised to appreciate.\n\n## From an absolute sense, it is tough to tell where commodity prices go from here. Yet, from a relative perspective, commodities relative to equities (and bonds) are set to outperform handedly over the coming years. \n<br>\nSomething else to keep in mind is capital flight. It’s likely that capital will have to flee bonds, and possibly equities, once the liquidity within the market dries up (see LIBOR). With rising interest rates, risk assets take a hit because their relative performance diminishes when once can simply attain interest holding cash. \n\nSpeaking of cash, pay close attention to the strength of the US Dollar. As the dollar weakens, commodities are set to fly higher. However, once the dollar inevitably strengthens again commodities weaken, as investors are more inclined to hold an appreciating dollar rather than converting weakening dollars into physical assets, like commodities. \n\nWhile the strength of USD is the single most important driver of commodity cycles, this cycle has other things going for it. Commodities relative to equities are at all-time lows. Bond markets are saturated with central bank stimulation, and the 30 year complacency trade in bonds is done, so capital flight from bonds seems a reasonable expectation. This capital will most likely flee bonds for equities or cash, yet the value of cash is weakening. So, it will then look at equities and realize that equities are extremely overvalued (i.e. FAANG, blue-chips, Boeing, defense, etc.) real estate is overvalued, and ultimately, realize the only place left for it to go is commodities.\n\nI will not recommend any stocks, but some of the trends already underway within the commodities space are the following:\n-\tUranium \n-\tBattery Storage\n-\tElectric Vehicles \n-\tCopper\n-\tVanadium\n-\tGold\n-\tSilver\n-\tSoybeans\n\nDo your own due diligence, but I highly recommend any market participant get their allocation to commodities covered over the coming months. Depending on your risk appetite, I recommend you research ETF’s that cover commodities and speculate on miners, suppliers, and other ancillaries to more specific trends within the commodities umbrella for more leverage. \n\nIt’s healthy to mention that while this trend may go on a short-term run, I am getting into this trend on a long-term investment horizon. Longer term timelines increase the likelihood of success, as it gives the narrative more time to play out, and in general, markets tend to go up. It also does not hurt that, as a species, we grow in population and consume increasingly more in commodities and raw materials, and the cyclical nature of commodities creates underinvestment that leads to overinvestment, creating lots of wealth in between.\n\n<i>\"I laugh, that there's a certain kind of cyclical nature to life and that I don't have to worry because whatever isn't there right now, it's coming back again.\"</i> – Walter Mosley\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\",\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/macro/@maven360/co-opted-central-banks-princes-of-the-yen\",\"https://katusaresearch.com/chart-45-years-making-commodities-vs-sp500/\"],\"image\":[\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/commodities.jpg?w=1496\"],\"tags\":[\"commodities\",\"money\",\"ocd-resteem\",\"minnow-support\"]}",
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      "parent_permlink": "investing",
      "permlink": "why-you-should-allocate-to-commodites",
      "title": "Why You Should Allocate To Commodities"
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  "timestamp": "2019-12-02T19:33:51",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Crypto offers any portfolio a powerful tool for navigating today’s uncertain marketplace. The focus of this report will be in identifying the role that crypto can serve in a well-diversified investment portfolio. This analytical approach is the exact approach institutional money will take in order to study the risks and rewards of allocating to crypto assets.\n<br>\n## MARKET INSIGHT\n\n#### Volatility\n\nUsing the VIX as our measure of implied volatility, the markets have been complacent throughout extensive periods of the current bull market. As a result of this complacency, the short volatility trade grew into such an oversized trade that the recent blow up of short volatility products during a spike in the VIX was inevitable. The likelihood of a change in attitude towards volatility in the bond and equity markets is now very high, and this sets up a bullish framework for crypto as an asset class, whose detractors claim the asset’s volatility is the main reason for avoiding any sort of allocation.\n\nWith volatility set to return to the market – at least, with the awareness of volatility and its influence on markets being paid more attention to – it appears a shift in sentiment towards crypto’s volatility being a negative may begin to erode as other assets experience materially higher volatility. Investors may even turn bullish on crypto’s volatility, especially should it prove to be uncorrelated to the broader market, as I will prove to be true further in this report.\n\nIn any case, the argument that volatility in crypto is reason to avoid the space entirely is losing its credence. This is a trend that shows no signs of slowing.\n\n#### Bond Market\n\nBond prices appear to be topping out as we have witnessed yields begin a well-defined upward trend in recent months. The fact that the USD has shown weakness while US treasury yields have risen should cause any investor to perk up and pay attention. For years, this relationship was inversely correlated. When the dollar weakened, capital flowed into bonds. When the dollar strengthened, capital flowed out of bonds back into USD. This relationship now shows possible signs of breaking down and its implications are paramount as the USD and US treasuries are considered the world’s safe haven assets.\n\nMarkets have begun to indicate that the US Federal deficit is alarmingly high and the safe haven of US treasuries may not be so safe indeed. This indication coincides with an era where the hegemony of the USD is being challenged by the Chinese, who wish to begin denominating their own gold and oil transactions in yuan, rather than USD.\n\nWhile the roadmap for these larger than life trends are unclear and will require a significant amount of time to play out, these developments are clearly casting a shadow over the broader market.\n \nAnother cause of concern for holders of US treasuries is the diminishing marginal pool of buyers – central banks, the largest buyer of bonds, are now unwinding their bond buying programs – for newly issued US Treasury debt. As markets indicate bond prices will be materially lower in the years to come, the White House has shown its commitment to increasing debt issuance in order to stimulate the economy via increasing spending programs.\n\nWe stand at a point where the Treasury is set to increase bond supply, while the market is beginning to discount bond prices for the first time in decades. Increasing supply and decreasing prices are time tested indicators that investors ignore at their own peril.\n\n#### Equity Market\n\nEquity markets are equally exposed to these dynamics in the bond markets (if not more so) and should we experience a correction in the bond market, an equity sell off may occur in reaction. This correlation can be attributed to any number of reasons, but amongst the front runners as to why these markets are highly correlated include:\n\n-\tDominance of the risk parity trade (the strategy of investing in bonds/equities in calculated weighted amounts based on risk parameters).\n-\tThe unfettered growth of passive investing.\n-\tStaggering amounts of capital being driven into private equity and venture capital.\n-\tDemographics and the concern of if the 10,000 baby boomers retiring each day and drawing down their IRA’s will create a liquidity crunch and sell-side pressure.\n\nEven larger than the reasons listed above lies the fact that valuations are very rich by nearly every metric and much of the recent momentum in this bull market is attributable to fewer and fewer stocks (FAANG’s and Defense Industry outperforming in the last year) signaling perhaps market breadth is diminishing with time, just as in every previous bull market.\n\nWhile I will refrain from prognostication on the broad market in this report, it is clear that many market participants are beginning to question the foundation on which our current bull market has been built, and as a result, alternative assets are seeing reinvigorated interest.\n\n## MARKET COMMENTARY\n\nThe reason to mention these larger macroeconomic views is to point out one thing: the market is failing to find a safe haven asset in the current environment, and this dislocation in safety plays a very influential role in how the emergence of crypto assets will be perceived.\n\n### The primary case for allocating to crypto lies in its asymmetry, its lack of correlation to the broader market (offering hedging capabilities), and increasingly, its volatility. \n\n### It is a play on an emerging asset class that serves as a duopoly on technological advancement and new alternative assets, and it is a play on social narrative that is increasingly wary of our current credit based economic system digging itself further and further into debt whilst benefitting fewer and fewer in number.\n<br>\n## CORRELATIONS\nBefore going any further, let me define which data sets I have based my analysis on, and which proxies I have used to define the performance of various asset classes. \n\n- AGG (proxy for bonds)\n- ASIAX (proxy for alternative investment strategies)\n- BTC (proxy for crypto assets)\n- DBC (proxy for commodities)\n- GLD (proxy for gold)\n- VNQ (proxy for real estate)\n- VT/SPY (proxy for equities, aka stocks)\n\nFor many whom hold the view that gold is the only true safe haven asset class, crypto offers investors enhanced returns as a hedge to bonds, equities, commodities, real estate, as a store of value, and as an asset that can be held outside of the financial system. \n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/gld-correlations.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nWhile gold is truly a time tested safe haven as compared to inflationary fiat, the fact is that gold carries a considerable correlation (0.5) to the bond market (AGG), and as discussed, the bond market is experiencing unprecedented issues with removing central bank bond buying programs from the equation. These issues are reflected in rising bond yields.\n\nIt is possible that the next major market event will be driven by action in the bond market, reason enough for any portfolio manager to consider hedging against bonds. Crypto assets offer this hedging ability better than that of gold and any other asset class, as illustrated below.\n\n <center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/btc-correlations.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nBitcoin is virtually uncorrelated to any other asset class, offering unique hedging abilities as an investment vehicle. (Less than 0.1 correlation is statistically insignificant.) \n\n<i>REMINDER: In my analysis, I use Bitcoin as a proxy for the performance of all crypto assets.</i>\n \n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/correlation-may-2013.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nAs the chart above illustrates, not only is Bitcoin uncorrelated to gold (GLD) and bonds (AGG), but also to equities (VT and SPY), commodities (DBC), real estate (VNQ), and alternative asset strategies (ASAIX), all of which are approaching the zero bound of correlation.\n\nBitcoin is truly in a class of its own in terms of offering uncorrelated returns while also allowing portfolios the ability to hedge against major bear markets in any of the aforementioned markets.\n\n <center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/correlation-2017.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nBitcoin’s function as a proxy for the broad crypto market is appropriate for a few reasons.\n\n(1)\tBitcoin has the most available data going back to 2013, whereas newer assets have limited data.\n(2)\tTo date, the broad crypto market has followed Bitcoin’s performance closely.\n(3)\tMost other crypto assets are denominated in price relative to Bitcoin, in addition to fiat.\n(4)\tMore often than not, investors must purchase Bitcoin in order to purchase other crypto assets meaning that Bitcoin volumes reasonably reflect ecosystem activity.\n\nFor more motivated investors, there exists the possibility to gain exposure to additional alpha over Bitcoin via more recent, high-growth crypto assets with smaller market capitalizations that allow for faster appreciation. However, this analysis focuses on the larger trend of capital flowing into the ecosystem via Bitcoin, first and foremost.\n \n## PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE\n\nOur baseline portfolio will be constructed from the following:\n\n-\t<b>55% Vanguard Total World Market ETF (VT)</b>\n-\t<b>35% iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)</b>\n-\t<b>5% SPDR Gold (GLD)</b>\n-\t<b>5% AQR Multi-Strategy Alternative Fund (ASAIX)</b>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/port-performance-2013.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/port-performance2018.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n\nAs you can see, the hypothetical addition of a small allocation towards crypto assets within our baseline portfolio model results in staggering gains on the longer time horizon. Such large gains, in fact, that should a small strategic allocation to crypto assets perform as well as they have to date, a 1% allocation could come to represent upwards of 60% of your portfolio’s total yield.\n\nYet, even in an environment where the broad market is in decline (see 2018 YTD chart), a crypto allocation reduces losses and generally serves to mitigate total portfolio risk.\n\nThis is the very definition of an asymmetric investment: one in which a small amount of capital can result in portfolio defining capital gains, all while minimizing risk exposure via small allocations and generally uncorrelated sources of yield.\n\nAlthough institutional investors are hesitant to allocate to crypto assets due to their perceived risk, the data indicates that not only does crypto enhance risk adjusted gains for a well-diversified portfolio, but it also allows investors a hedging vehicle in a market where the possibility of a risk off event rippling through bonds, equities, commodities, gold, real estate, and other alternative assets is growing by the day.\n\nCrypto assets are truly in a class of their own in offering unmatched yield producing abilities in a low-yield environment, while also allowing investors the ability to pursue uncorrelated yield sources.These two aspects alone suggest crypto assets deserve to become an allocation for a growing number of well-diversified investment portfolios.\n\n## CONCLUSION\n\nThis analysis proves that crypto assets are uncorrelated to the broad market, offer high yield, and although volatile, ought to be included as an allocation in well-diversified investment portfolios.\n\nMy research has used Bitcoin as a proxy for crypto assets as a whole, yet further crypto portfolio diversification offers investors the ability to outperform Bitcoin moving forward as the market awareness of crypto as an asset class grows, and investors in the space will look to diversify their crypto allocation even further beyond Bitcoin.\n\nNowhere is this the growth of this market awareness more evident than in the number of users at popular online exchanges (Coinbase), in hardware wallet purchases, Google searches, news coverage, and in central bank meeting minutes.\n \nIn other words, we are experiencing high-growth in an emerging asset class, all without the existence of a mainstream ETF or other easy-access vehicle. The floodgates are poised to fall within 2018, and once they do it is quite likely that a number of the other alt-coins in the space shall perform as Bitcoin has to date. Most specifically, those alts that can acquire the largest number of users and tackle the largest markets.\n\nAll anyone needs to access the crypto asset market is the ability to use the internet. There are well over 3 Billion people with this ability, and it is only going to accelerate moving forward, especially as emerging economies leap frog previous technologies. With more users comes increased liquidity within the asset class, and with more liquidity comes a better price discovery mechanism. All signs indicate that this price discovery has yet to occur, as we are still in the market awareness discovery phase.\n\nThe market is set to mature, and as the data has proven, Bitcoin will not be the only asset worth allocating to within an asset class, as a whole, that deserves to be allocated to within a well- diversified portfolio in search of yield in an environment that is increasingly yield adverse.\n \n## Methodology Explained\n\nFirst and foremost, the covariance/correlation between the various asset classes needed to be found. I accomplished this by sorting the data out into both weekly and monthly percentage changes. This was easier said than done (thanks to crypto markets being 24/7 versus traditional markets only weekdays). However, with the data sorted I was able to use the excel function for correlation to solve for correlation between Bitcoin and GLD, VT, etc. and create a matrix showing each relationship.\n\nGraphing these charts from the matrix was straightforward.\n\nThe next portion of the process was to introduce various crypto allocations to the baseline portfolio. While my charts only indicate the allocation size (1%, 5%, 6.67%, and 10%) I neglect to explain where the reweighting stemmed from. Please see below chart.\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/port-performance2018.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/allocation-weightings.jpg?w=1456</center>\n\nThe reasoning behind each of these changes were more qualitative in nature, versus quantitative. To be honest, this is the first place I would spend more time researching. There certainly exists an optimal allocation amount, yet I based my allocation weightings based upon where I felt most fund managers would be willing to lighten up (i.e. bonds or alt assets), or deploy capital more liberally.\n\nIt is worth noting that in my analysis I have taken a rather biased view on GLD (as a proxy for gold). Make no mistake, gold has it's own unique purpose in each portfolio. Gold is insurance, and it ought to be treated as such. Gold maintains purchasing power for its holder, and although it may lose value in fiat dollar terms, it has proven throughout history to gain value in relative terms just as fiat loses relative value, which is why it is the preferred store of value method all around the world. Gold also carries no risk of cyber espionage (which is a big deal - see my cyber weekly posts), so long as you physically hold your gold.\n\nYet, as my analysis has proven, Bitcoin (as a proxy for crypto assets) is uncorrelated to other asset classes, and it has the advantage of having much smaller market awareness (double-edged sword) and a smaller market capitalization, which means it has the potential to appreciate in value in rapid fashion. This is an asymmetric investment play, as it has no true correlation to the broad market, and even though as it has been said before that this correlation has yet to be truly tested in a state of market panic, or general loss of confidence, the asset class warrants investment due to it's potential staggering payoff relative to its risk profile. \n\nIn conclusion, crypto assets are set to explode in value as institutional funds enter the space using the same roadmap I have laid out for you here. I recommend you beat them to the punch, and get your money there first. It also goes without saying that each and every man, woman, and child ought to consider holding physical gold and silver as well, just for the rainy day that comes in each fiat currency's life cycle.\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.\n<br>\n<i>For anyone new to my work, I highly encourage you to revisit my previous articles, especially <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/why-you-should-allocate-to-commodites\">this one!</a></i>\n\n1 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/anyone-can-invest-successfully-do-experts-exist\" target=\"_blank\">Follow the Money - An Approach to Investing (And Life)</a>\n\n2 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/anybody-can-invest-successfully\" target=\"_blank\">Anybody Can Invest Successfully</a>\n\n3 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/follow-the-leader\" target=\"_blank\">Pitfalls of Passive Investing</a>\n\n4 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/executing-a-trade-with-limit-orders-investing\" target=\"_blank\">The Importance of Limit Orders</a>\n\n5 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/learning-how-about-earning-investing-part-1\" target=\"_blank\">Learning? How About Earning? (Part 1)</a>\n\n6 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/learning-how-about-earning-investing-part-2\" target=\"_blank\">Learning? How About Earning? (Part 2)</a>\n\n7 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/the-cheat-sheet-investing\" target=\"_blank\">Cheat Sheet: Where to Invest Now (And Where Not To)</a>\n\n8 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/usdinsane-bitcoin-expert-predictionusd-modern-man-s-achilles-heel-clickbait-investing\" target=\"_blank\">A Tool to Avoid Investing Clickbait</a>\n\n9 - <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\" target=\"_blank\">The Devil is in the Details (Part 1)</a>\n\n10- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\" target=\"_blank\">The Devil is in the Details (Part 2)</a>\n\n11- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/thoughts-on-cryptoverse-part-i-investing\" target=\"_blank\">The Big Picture With Crypto</a>\n\n12- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/is-the-crypto-market-currently-in-a-bubble-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">Are We Experiencing A Crypto Bubble?</a> \n\n13- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/how-to-invest-in-cryptocurrency-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">How To Invest in Crypto Securely</a>\n\n14- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">Cultivation of Convenience: Thoughts on Privacy</a>\n\n15- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrencies/@maven360/short-term-profiteering-v-crypto-bug-gone-viral-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">Crypto's Network Effect and Types of Crypto Investors</a>\n\n16- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/discussion/@maven360/standing-the-middle-ground-musing-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">Bull or Bear? Doesn't Matter</a>\n\n17- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/derivatives-etf-s-and-china-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">Trends to Watch in Crypto: Derivatives, ETF's, and China</a>\n\n18- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/volatility-you-vixen-why-vol-is-crypto-s-best-friend\" target=\"_blank\">Why Volatility is A Friend to Crypto</a>\n\n19- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/blackswan/@maven360/broken-arrow-coinbase-hacked-in-12-months\" target=\"_blank\">Cyber Realm is A Broken Arrow: 2018 Prediction</a>\n\n20- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/education/@maven360/the-arbitrage-of-intimidation-and-misunderstanding\" target=\"_blank\">The Arbitrage of Intimidation and Misunderstanding: Why You Should Educate Yourself</a>\n\n21- <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/price-isn-t-everything-dessert-dynamics\" target=\"_blank\">Crypto Valuation Fundamentals</a>",
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      "title": "Why You Should Allocate To Crypto Assets - An Institutional Investor's Approach"
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      "body": "@@ -134,20 +134,8 @@\n usly\n- at Maven360\n , %3C/\n@@ -6580,19 +6580,19 @@\n for \n-the 2016/17\n+last year's\n  sta\n",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "So much has been said on the topic of quantitative easing, I find it foolhardy to rehash here. For a *quick* refresher, I recommend revisiting my posts on the topic <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\">here,</a> and <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\">here.</a> \n\nOne of the most significant consequences of quantitative easing is a loss of price discovery. \n\nA healthy marketplace is one that is deeply liquid, has a wide variety of individual actors, opinions, positions, trades, etc. across various timelines, asset classes, strategies, borders, etc. \n\n## In other words, a healthy market is one that allows for all-natural, non-GMO price discovery.\n<br>\nTo use an analogy, quantitative easing is equivalent to a mobster (central banker) walking into a functional casino (healthy marketplace) and taking over the floor.  \n\nExcept what we have in reality is more like a gang of mobsters as the central bank coalition of the Americans, Europeans, Chinese, and Japanese – and let us not forget emerging economies who have feasted on the debt fueled breadcrumbs of their larger cohorts – enter the market at a scale never seen before and dictate who gets to play what game and, more importantly, at what price.\n\nWhat central bankers have done to markets is really no different than what The Rock does in the following scene from the film, <i>Walking Tall</i>:\n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqc2lyHj63A</center>\n\nWho are the guys The Rock is pulverizing? \n\nThose are your non-central bank investors; everyone else within the greater marketplace ecosystem who relies on the ability (or delay thereof) of markets to discover real prices. \n\nInternalizing the rather violent visuals provided above, what is clear is that the marketplace has lost its path. It is unhealthy because it has been commandeered by all-powerful centralists. \n\n## So where has the capital that was traditionally earmarked for a healthy bond and equity marketplace been flowing to instead? \n<br>Many market participants have been forced into making investments in niche sectors, narratives, and assets.\n\n\n<center>https://cbi-blog.s3.amazonaws.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Aggregate-Unicorn-Valuation-over-Time.png</center>\n\n<center>https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20170318_WOC001_hr.png</center>\n\nWhich brings me to...\n\n##  Unicorns and real estate.\n<br>\nWhile I can touch on real estate, I find it's more readily grasped since one rarely hears mention of next month’s rent going down. Not to mention the fact that no matter which city you travel to around the world, you will encounter dozens of tower cranes and construction crews building at a pace that makes everyone a bit nervous. \n\nA very substantial amount of capital that traditionally played in the \"casino\" left the game completely and decided to go into commercial real estate, land development, high-rise construction, tenant improvements, new offices, co-working spaces, you name it. Just take a stroll through your nearest city and you will understand exactly what I mean. It is a very uncomplicated indicator that most recognize, even if they are not aware of why it is happening.\n\nWhat I wish to focus on instead of real estate is the fact that the other major avenue this dislocated capital has taken was/is into the private market to fund companies with one goal in mind: growth.\n\n## Achieving unicorn status. \n<br>\n\"Growth/Scalability\" and market share are the only two heuristics that investors have been able to base their portfolios on for the past decade. \n\nWhy is it that growth has become the ultimate valuation metric? \n\nBecause a growing company creates its own self-fulfilling narrative machine. You hear these self-generated narratives every day on the street, a testament to their influence on market psychology:\n\n<center><i>“Amazon will take over the world. Plain and simple.”</i> </center>\n<center><i>“Google owns all data, is leading driverless cars, and will  lead artificial intelligence.”</i></center>\n<center><i>“Uber has forever changed transportation, and they will disrupt the entire restaurant industry with Uber Eats.”</i></center>\n\nWhile these narratives have taken a breather in recent months, the fact remains that growth is the number one investment criteria across the board since there is no longer any price discovery in the market.\n\nWhen there is no price discovery, there’s limited opportunity to carve out a select strategy, arbitrage mispriced assets, and the like. It then becomes a game of relative performance, and the only way to measure this is to find that which is <i>distinct</i> about an investment. \n\nIs any indicator clearer and more easily measured than growth metrics??? <i>Asking for a friend.</i>\n\nBy the way, just as previous organizations before them these tech behemoths will eventually plateau, consolidate, and mature into a horizontally integrated infrastructure rather than shooting vertically for the moon. Although, we do live in a world where Bezos and the billionaire boys club have nothing they'd rather do than actually land on the moon and Mars, a bit ironic.\n\nSome examples to consider are IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, GE, etc. Heavy hitters who have weathered a cycle or two, perhaps a war, several government regimes, you name it. These matured companies have endured, unlike their younger, unproven counterparts who have only known a casino marketplace that is dominated by a strong man (or four) with a robust plank in hand.\n\nWhile chasing growth for the past decade has been en vogue, as I have mentioned before I have no interest in <a href=\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\" target=\"_blank\">following the herd. \n</a>\n\nWhy not?\n\nBecause it is what most others are doing. Meaning the value in this strategy has been arbitraged out both quantitatively and qualitatively. \n\nOf course, while we have our fair share of individuals pounding the proverbial table on how our market is doomed to crash, the reality is that we will likely see more extreme market distortions prior to any major economic event.\n\n## This is the primary driver behind my thesis that investing in small asset classes with negative sentiment is the most prudent thing any investor looking to catch alpha can position for. Alpha, asymmetry, or whatever buzzword you prefer is the goal here. What it is really is finding the one machine that The Rock has yet to beat to hell with his plank and patiently playing the game.\n<br>\nAnd just as you do with any game based on odds, you do not simply go all in at once, but rather study the game, study your opponents, and look to capitalize when you sense having an advantage.\n\nAs the current environment within the public bond market deteriorates in health and ripples through every sector, especially private equity, capital will flee these overvalued markets in search of relative safety. <i>Relative</i> really being the key word here.\n\n## Where this fleeing capital will likely find safety is in assets that have been beaten down, are undervalued, and stand a reasonable chance at achieving that all-important growth. In other words, they will find safety in assets where a reversion to the mean has an upward trajectory.\n<br>\nIn the end, it boils down to taking the path less travelled and having patience. It does not mean disregarding the crowd and ignoring what they do, but rather paying close attention to the crowd and attempting to anticipate what the crowd will anticipate, how they will behave, and which positions we can enter now ahead of major capital inflows searching for safe harbor during a <a href=\"https://steemit.com/assymetry/@maven360/the-arm-that-twists-the-invisible-hand\" target=\"_blank\">violent storm. </a>\n\nIn terms of timing, I always want to reiterate that nobody knows when or how things will ultimately play out. That is why patience is the single most important skill that any serious investor needs to reflect upon and develop. Put on your position, and then forget you’ve done so. Come check back in a few years and the odds are in your favor you will be pleasantly surprised.\n\nThat said, I do find the chart below very fascinating and perhaps a useful timing indicator to suggest what so many others are already suggesting: we are in the final innings of this credit expansion cycle, business cycle, central bank stimulus of bond market cycle, and the over-arching market psychology of “buy the dip” all converging in a time of US withdrawal from a Bretton Woods organized world order.\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nFascinating times to be alive, to say the least. A major reason why I find people who tell me they are bored so unattractive to be around.\n\nSomething else to consider is 2019 being the year that Uber plans to IPO. Not to mention Palantir, Airbnb, Saudi Aramco, Lyft, Slack, and numerous other big fish. \n\nIn fact, these fish are so big that they appear to be the complete and total opposite of all-natural and non-GMO.\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/ipo.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nSeems a bit frothy, no? Why decide to go public now? Is it to cash out and disperse their risk unto the public? Hmmm….\n \n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/30-yr.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/10-yr.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nThe valuations of the aforementioned companies perform inversely to the two charts above. They have thrived in an environment of declining yields (meaning loose credit and cheap money), yet as rates enter a regime of upward movement the cost of capital will increase, meaning it will become less available.\n\nThis means all of the money that has flown into these ridiculously overvalued companies in the private market will have to rethink where it sits. This rethinking has led them all to believe now is as good a time as ever to liquidate and go public. They want to realize their gains ahead of the coming changes and increase liquid capital on hand while unloading their risk.\n\nDo your research and do not end up being the one left holding the bag.\n\n<i>\"I grew up in this town, people used to walk tall in this town, they wouldn't have traded the mill for a crooked casino and they wouldn't have stood around while drugs were being sold to kids.\" </i> – Chris Vaughn\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"image\":[\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/rqc2lyHj63A/0.jpg\",\"https://cbi-blog.s3.amazonaws.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Aggregate-Unicorn-Valuation-over-Time.png\",\"https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/20170318_WOC001_hr.png\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/unnamed.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/ipo.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/30-yr.jpg?w=676\",\"https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/10-yr.jpg?w=676\"],\"format\":\"markdown\",\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"tags\":[\"unicorns\",\"ipo\",\"growth\",\"ocd-resteem\"],\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\",\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqc2lyHj63A\",\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\",\"https://steemit.com/assymetry/@maven360/the-arm-that-twists-the-invisible-hand\"]}",
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      "permlink": "the-gumption-of-growth-the-genesis-of-unicorns-and-the-global-construction-boom",
      "title": "The Gumption Of Growth - The Genesis Of Unicorns & The Global Construction Boom"
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      "body": "We hear it referred to so often in the investment world, in the world of sports, and more broadly, in anything that is competitive, has sums of money on the line, and requires high performance in order to be deemed successful. \n\n## <center> What is your edge? </center>\n<br>\n\nEdge is what everyone strives for when it comes to investment. Entire portfolio theories are based upon the team having an edge in some domain of knowledge. \n\nThis is the exact role that hedge funds play in the ecosystem. They specialize in some domain of knowledge and they receive funds from larger funds looking to diversify and gain exposure to areas of the market where they do not have the necessary resources to be competitive. Hedge funds are just outsourced investment capabilities for larger funds to tap into when deemed appropriate, or equally as likely, when pitched properly.\n\nSpeaking of pitches, in today’s environment of cheap credit via low interest rates, meaning <a href=\"https://steemit.com/risk-management/@maven360/what-is-risk\" target=\"_blank\">low risk</a>  of looking like an idiot, hedge fund pitches are predicated and evaluated almost exclusively upon how convincing and dynamic the definition of their edge is. \n\nHow unique is said hedge fund's edge with regards to talent, R&D, network reach, location, reputation, political connections, AUM, et cetera?\n\nAfter all, what other metric besides edge – however arbitrary and intangible a measure it may be – can be used to reasonably estimate the competence of a hedge fund pitching itself as an expert in some domain? You can't. Position size accordingly.\n\nThe thing is that one's perceived edge may not be an edge at all, especially when the person telling you he/she is an expert in some domain of knowledge is in fact a novice, at best.\n\n<center>https://quotefancy.com/media/wallpaper/3840x2160/2025792-Mark-Twain-Quote-It-ain-t-what-you-don-t-know-that-gets-you-into.jpg</center>\n\nIt’s not the things that you know, it’s the things you know that just aren’t so.\n\nIn short, that’s my approach to risk. More often than not, it's also how I tend to determine how much salt I must lend to someone's explanation that they've found their edge based on some arbitrary (often impressive sounding) measure. The more impressive it sounds, the more <a href=\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\" target=\"_blank\">salt</a> I toss into the mix.\n\n<center>https://i.etsystatic.com/6670245/r/il/d6d0f6/505297045/il_570xN.505297045_m5d0.jpg</center>\n\nSome of the more conventional definitions of edge can be summed up as:\n\n\"We team up with geniuses [fill in the blank]\"\n\n- in the physical sciences\n- in mathematics\n- in computer science\n- in health and nutrition\n- in space technologies\n- in oil and gas exploration\n\nAd infinitum \n\nMake no mistake, while there are a number of unqualified hedge funds opening each year, the market has its way of weeding out those who are incompetent. Those who may have a gift when it comes to giving pitches, garnering assets under management, and convincing others that they possess an edge must then perform as advertised.\n\nOtherwise, their investors will begin to doubt how realistic their edge really is and will liquidate their holdings. As we've witnessed over the past few years, there is plenty of doubt to go around within the hedge fund community.\n\n## What, then, is a realistic edge that any retail investor can work towards developing? \n<br>\n\nEspecially when one takes into consideration that there is likely a very competent opponent in the form of a hedge fund (or seven) operating in the exact same domain with much more sophistication and resources, how can the average Joe get some sleep at night?\n\n### Patience. Willpower. Staying power. Liquidity. Conviction.\n<br>\n\nEssentially, the ability to put on a position and then patiently wait for the market to express a similar opinion is a retail investor's most potent weapon.\n\nIt’s showing up early to the party and then awaiting the rest of the guests to show up and pay a more expensive cover than you did getting in for cheap during happy hour. While we have the ability to simply show up and stay, our professional counterparts must continually provide updates to their clients, and more often than not, this requires that they leave the party before it's even begun.\n\nLook no further than the successes of Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger. Their investment strategy is to acquire companies at a discounted valuation, and then hold them forever.\n\nWhat does <i>forever</i> mean, again? Does that mean 5 years, 10 years, 20, or even 40? \n\nNo. They are the epitome of buy and hold. They acquire for cheap and then hold forever. \n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-Q7b-vHY3Q</center>\n\nOf course, Buffett and Munger are investing with hundreds of billions of dollars at their disposal, so the mechanics of their portfolio are different than ours.\n\n## However, there’s a lesson to take from these men and that is patience is the most undervalued principle of all. \n<br>\n As relatively unsophisticated retail investors, our edge comes in our ability to hold onto our convictions without having to answer to any clientele on a quarterly basis. We are the judge, jury, and executioner when it comes to our own portfolio.\n\nWe can express opinions, and then walk away from them to research other areas of knowledge that we may arbitrage. In the meantime, we allow our expressions the most valuable commodity of all to play out: <a href=\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/to-build-anew-or-to-retrofit-money-is-time\" target=\"_blank\">time.</a>\n\nI find that in today’s hyper connected world, nearly every investment strategy is built around minimizing the time required in order to realize the maximum gain. Especially when you begin delving into the world of high frequency trading strategies  that are made increasingly powerful via machine learning algorithms and the largest data sets known to mankind.\n\nSo, as the word <i>sophistication</i> increasingly comes to be associated with a reduction in time, I find the inverse to be equally as true. Longer timelines may not show the fruits of the labor as quickly as their shorter-term counterparts, but they do remove a large portion of risk and uncertainty while also removing a whole hell of competitors from the playing field that we likely do not wish to compete with in their game.\n\nIn the end, while most complain that retail, non-accredited investors are dealt a major disadvantage when entering the gladiator ring that is commonly referred to as markets, I find the inverse to be true. Our lack of sophistication, resources, insider knowledge, expert advisers, and armies of software engineers allows us to reduce the equation down to the fundamentals.\n\n## The only edge we can have is investing based on timelines that are longer than those of all of our competing gladiators.\n<br>\nIt’s not based upon physical strength, intelligence, connections, nor resources. Assuming you’ve properly done your homework and no substantial changes to your thesis become apparent, then putting on a position and then forgetting you’ve done so, only to check back in 5-10 years is an act of prudence. \n\nWhy?\n\nBecause that is the hardest thing to do. Oftentimes, the things we find the most difficult are the things we ought to be doing. And while it is healthy to acknowledge how outgunned we retail investors are in today’s marketplace, would you rather complain about it or find your niche and maximize the likelihood that you profit from this edge?\n\nMy focus is on the latter, and it’s an iterative process. While every mechanism about the market changes incessantly over time, the one constant is human nature. More specifically, how human nature tends to undervalue the power of time. Buffet often alludes to this via his emphasis on the circle of competence:\n\n<i> \"I stay within that circle and I don't worry about things that are outside that circle. Defining what your game is, where you're going to have an edge, is enormously important.\" </i>\n\nFind assets that are undervalued relative to others. As we’ve witnessed lately, currencies are fluctuating, as are interest rates, as are political regimes, as are national and global zeitgeists. Taking these into account, it appears an appetizing time and place to play a game where you express an out-of-favor opinion, buckle in for the long haul, and then observe people and events with a sense of humor.\n\n<i> \"Patience is not the ability to wait but the ability to keep a good attitude while waiting.\"</i>\n– Joyce Meyer\n<br>\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"investment\",\"ocd-resteem\",\"finance\",\"investing\"],\"image\":[\"https://quotefancy.com/media/wallpaper/3840x2160/2025792-Mark-Twain-Quote-It-ain-t-what-you-don-t-know-that-gets-you-into.jpg\",\"https://i.etsystatic.com/6670245/r/il/d6d0f6/505297045/il_570xN.505297045_m5d0.jpg\",\"https://img.youtube.com/vi/H-Q7b-vHY3Q/0.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://steemit.com/risk-management/@maven360/what-is-risk\",\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/a-grain-of-sand-in-a-pool-investment-philosophy\",\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-Q7b-vHY3Q\",\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/to-build-anew-or-to-retrofit-money-is-time\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "title": "The Timeliness Of Edge - Defining the Retail Investor's Primary Advantage"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "The prevalence of gamification in the products and services we use everyday is creating a dangerous environment where people are willingly releasing information that is vital to their personal security.  All in the name of <a href=\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">convenience.</a> \n\n\nConsidering that virtually all products and services interfacing with payments now have KYC/AML functionality, one could easily see how the data surrounding one's biometrics holds immense value.\n\n<i>Think of KYC/AML (Know Your Customer / Anti Money Laundering) as a screening/filtering process. It verifies individuals' identifies when signing up on that new FinTech App / weeds out individuals who may be affiliated with terrorism, pedophilia, and other less than desirable activities that land you on Uncle Sam's Shit List.</i>\n\n## Unlike passwords, biometrics cannot simply be reset when forgotten or compromised.\n<br>\nSeeing that all KYC/AML providers now market biometrics and liveness checks (which are <a href=\"https://steemit.com/trend-analysis/@maven360/living-in-an-artificial-environment-examining-anxiety-surrounding-technology-and-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\">automated processes</a>, of course)  as the cutting edge in privacy and security, the reality of the situation is that these technologies have already been compromised.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUhEKB3WHdgyE8n9cdgb2dKbaWACDehScAu3eVcktonGt/image.png)\n\nThe biometric data for well over 150 Million Americans has been freely collected by a private company, all in the name of people being able to send funny photos and videos to one another appearing as a much older version of themselves. \n\n<center>https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/J76RFFMEIVAJ3NTZ4YEXMMBJGQ.jpg</center>\n\nAll that was required for people to give up their most essential security apparatus (facial biometrics) was the gamification of visual arts, memes, and the ability to make our family and friends laugh. Talk about a psychological and social hack.\n\nKeep in mind, the data associated with each face that was captured in this game is now being hosted and run through third party infrastructure in AWS, various server farms, and/or several internal databases with unknown protection around them. \n\n## It is safe to assume all of this data is essentially fully exposed and free for anyone with the incentive and technical know-how to acquire.\n<br>\nWhich is to say, bad actors now have the <i>authentic</i> biometrics for 150 Million Americans, and counting. KYC/AML is not effective against social engineering schemes using authentic biometrics. Rather, it is only effective against schemes using fraudulent information, or those containing anomalies that recursive pattern analysis can pick up. \n\nThe reason I even mention that these users are American is because relative to the rest of the world, Americans are extremely wealthy. Cyber criminals view American targets as the biggest fish in the financial sea. To say that FaceApp is sitting on perhaps the most valuable treasure chest of a heavily American biometric dataset would be an understatement.\n\nThis does not even address the fact that regulation is waaay behind the curve. The rhetoric within the regulatory/compliance community still views facial biometric analysis as the next big step in KYC/AML. \n\nA big step forward, I should clarify. They view this as the next logical step in a regulatory/compliance mandate. So if you're still looking to the government and its host of three letter agencies for guidance, then you're sorely mistaken.\n\nThe only way to rationally operate in cyber is to assume you’re always operating within a zero-trust environment. Trust, but verify. More plainly stated, trust nobody.\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSbR8QaCr8A85p7r3GrpefBh5xQTZKY8wYEPQcVi71DbP/image.png)</center>\nIt is ironic that while people are so willing to give up their data for free, on the reciprocal end, they are not likely at all to take advantage of reparations for having their data completely stolen. \n\nOf the 147 Million users compromised during the Equifax breach, only 7 Million are expected to take what is rightfully theirs in free credit monitoring. Less than 5%, folks.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmddQvvnpjFMAHXu4Ac3wRNwMtKZUBNqKVm6jdu9iFg2u7/image.png)\n\n\n<center>https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/740/177/36a.jpg</center>\n\nQuite amazing stuff, really. After having single-handedly placed 147 Million users into a dangerous sea of sharks looking to harvest identities, siphon funds, infiltrate private data troves, and harvest as much money as possible from \"wealthy Americans\" Equifax is paying virtually no consequence. There is plenty of precedent for this, and unfortunately until public perception comes around on this issue it will perpetuate itself. \n\n What I find more fascinating is that the users themselves are so uneducated and uninterested in the matter that they cannot even bring themselves to accept free credit monitoring from a company that put them directly into this very vulnerable position.\n\nThis goes to show how illiterate people are in caring and managing their cyber hygiene, data, and personal information security. \n\nAnd with respect to narrative infiltration rates and timing indicators, this suggests that the narrative around cyber security, data integrity, distributed ledger technology (blockchain), and other emerging technologies has substantial room to run. \n\n## If only 5% of the general public have the wherewithal to accept meager reparations, we can safely assume that this structural trend has 95% of its runway ahead of it. Digital information and its security is still in its early innings. \n<br>\nOnce this number reaches a higher proportion, we will have an excellent opportunity to sell some stake of our digital assets and convert them to physical assets, in addition to reviewing our bullishness on cybersecurity-related equities. \n\nWe are still early. \n\nHowever, in terms of potential catalysts, there is a fire-storm on the horizon of mainstream narrative shifts in the form of <a href=\"https://www.theepochtimes.com/does-china-have-your-dna_2832301.html\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese companies having the DNA sequences</a> of virtually all US citizens who have submitted to DNA tests.\n\nOnce this knowledge becomes common knowledge, things will shift rapidly. Just ask yourself, how many third party vendors in the form of suppliers, data managers, organizers, IT facilitators, medical processing labs, payment processors, and the like have access to the DNA that you freely chose to send to them?\n\nFollow the money and you will be shocked at what \"private\" companies make the supply chain list.\n\n<center>https://www.smarterhobby.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/23andme-reviews.jpg</center>\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRBmAhc7zRUzsrs6Ue2iGFnyWtb4FPgBtVchw2f9bBcaM/image.png)</center>\n<br>\n<center><i>\"The aim of the wise is not to secure pleasure, but to avoid pain.\"</i> \n— Aristotle </center>\n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to clog the inbox of a frenemy.",
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      "title": "Behind The Biometrics – All Fun & Gamification"
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  "op": [
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    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "The prevalence of gamification in the products and services we use everyday is creating a dangerous environment where people are willingly releasing information that is vital to their personal security.  All in the name of <a href=\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">convenience.</a> \n\n\nConsidering that virtually all products and services interfacing with payments now have KYC/AML functionality, one could easily see how the data surrounding one's biometrics holds immense value.\n\n<i>Think of KYC/AML (Know Your Customer / Anti Money Laundering) as a screening/filtering process. It verifies individuals' identifies when signing up on that new FinTech App / weeds out individuals who may be affiliated with terrorism, pedophilia, and other less than desirable activities that land you on Uncle Sam's Shit List.</i>\n\n## Unlike passwords, biometrics cannot simply be reset when forgotten or compromised.\n<br>\nSeeing that all KYC/AML providers now market biometrics and liveness checks (which are <a href=\"https://steemit.com/trend-analysis/@maven360/living-in-an-artificial-environment-examining-anxiety-surrounding-technology-and-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\">automated processes</a>, of course)  as the cutting edge in privacy and security, the reality of the situation is that these technologies have already been compromised.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUhEKB3WHdgyE8n9cdgb2dKbaWACDehScAu3eVcktonGt/image.png)\n\nThe biometric data for well over 150 Million Americans has been freely collected by a private company, all in the name of people being able to send funny photos and videos to one another appearing as a much older version of themselves. \n\n<center>https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/J76RFFMEIVAJ3NTZ4YEXMMBJGQ.jpg</center>\n\nAll that was required for people to give up their most essential security apparatus (facial biometrics) was the gamification of visual arts, memes, and the ability to make our family and friends laugh. Talk about a psychological and social hack.\n\nKeep in mind, the data associated with each face that was captured in this game is now being hosted and run through third party infrastructure in AWS, various server farms, and/or several internal databases with unknown protection around them. \n\n## It is safe to assume all of this data is essentially fully exposed and free for anyone with the incentive and technical know-how to acquire.\n<br>\nWhich is to say, bad actors now have the <i>authentic</i> biometrics for 150 Million Americans, and counting. KYC/AML is not effective against social engineering schemes using authentic biometrics. Rather, it is only effective against schemes using fraudulent information, or those containing anomalies that recursive pattern analysis can pick up. \n\nThe reason I even mention that these users are American is because relative to the rest of the world, Americans are extremely wealthy. Cyber criminals view American targets as the biggest fish in the financial sea. To say that FaceApp is sitting on perhaps the most valuable treasure chest of a heavily American biometric dataset would be an understatement.\n\nThis does not even address the fact that regulation is waaay behind the curve. The rhetoric within the regulatory/compliance community still views facial biometric analysis as the next big step in KYC/AML. \n\nA big step forward, I should clarify. They view this as the next logical step in a regulatory/compliance mandate. So if you're still looking to the government and its host of three letter agencies for guidance, then you're sorely mistaken.\n\nThe only way to rationally operate in cyber is to assume you’re always operating within a zero-trust environment. Trust, but verify. More plainly stated, trust nobody.\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSbR8QaCr8A85p7r3GrpefBh5xQTZKY8wYEPQcVi71DbP/image.png)</center>\nIt is ironic that while people are so willing to give up their data for free, on the reciprocal end, they are not likely at all to take advantage of reparations for having their data completely stolen. \n\nOf the 147 Million users compromised during the Equifax breach, only 7 Million are expected to take what is rightfully theirs in free credit monitoring. Less than 5%, folks.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmddQvvnpjFMAHXu4Ac3wRNwMtKZUBNqKVm6jdu9iFg2u7/image.png)\n\n\n<center>https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/740/177/36a.jpg</center>\n\nQuite amazing stuff, really. After having single-handedly placed 147 Million users into a dangerous sea of sharks looking to harvest identities, siphon funds, infiltrate private data troves, and harvest as much money as possible from \"wealthy Americans\" Equifax is paying virtually no consequence. There is plenty of precedent for this, and unfortunately until public perception comes around on this issue it will perpetuate itself. \n\n What I find more fascinating is that the users themselves are so uneducated and uninterested in the matter that they cannot even bring themselves to accept free credit monitoring from a company that put them directly into this very vulnerable position.\n\nThis goes to show how illiterate people are in caring and managing their cyber hygiene, data, and personal information security. \n\nAnd with respect to narrative infiltration rates and timing indicators, this suggests that the narrative around cyber security, data integrity, distributed ledger technology (blockchain), and other emerging technologies has substantial room to run. \n\n## If only 5% of the general public have the wherewithal to accept meager reparations, we can safely assume that this structural trend has 95% of its runway ahead of it. Digital information and its security is still in its early innings. \n<br>\nOnce this number reaches a higher proportion, we will have an excellent opportunity to sell some stake of our digital assets and convert them to physical assets, in addition to reviewing our bullishness on cybersecurity-related equities. \n\nWe are still early. \n\nHowever, in terms of potential catalysts, there is a fire-storm on the horizon of mainstream narrative shifts in the form of <a href=\"https://www.theepochtimes.com/does-china-have-your-dna_2832301.html\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese companies having the DNA sequences</a> of virtually all US citizens who have submitted to DNA tests.\n\nOnce this knowledge becomes common knowledge, things will shift rapidly. Just ask yourself, how many third party vendors in the form of suppliers, data managers, organizers, IT facilitators, medical processing labs, payment processors, and the like have access to the DNA that you freely chose to send to them?\n\nFollow the money and you will be shocked at what \"private\" companies make the supply chain list.\n\n<center>https://www.smarterhobby.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/23andme-reviews.jpg</center>\n\n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRBmAhc7zRUzsrs6Ue2iGFnyWtb4FPgBtVchw2f9bBcaM/image.png)</center>\n<br>\n<center><i>\"The aim of the wise is not to secure pleasure, but to avoid pain.\"</i> \n— Aristotle </center>\n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to clog the inbox of a frenemy.",
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{
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    {
      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -6082,13 +6082,25 @@\n rst \n+real-life \n imple\n+me\n ntat\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"risk\",\"regulation\",\"sdr\",\"ocd-resteem\"],\"image\":[\"https://azcdn.messenger.pgsitecore.com/en-us/-/media/mrclean/Images/BrandExperience/MetaImage/HomepageCleaningProductsSolutions.jpg?v=1-201710201128\",\"https://www.riotgames.com/darkroom/1440/b71ace4a13f127d6c79f6f3872589416:702844724d49733d39518eda627a3bd6/london.jpg\",\"https://thefatkidinside.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/overnight-shanghai-36-hours-in-the-city-716x375.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/CoinJoin\",\"https://lightning.network/\",\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schnorr_signature\",\"https://twitter.com/nic__carter?lang=en\",\"https://twitter.com/danheld?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\",\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\",\"https://steemit.com/edge/@maven360/the-timeliness-of-edge-defining-the-retail-investor-s-primary-advantage\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "compliance",
      "permlink": "the-clean-transaction-premium-btc-regulatory-and-compliance-risk-management",
      "title": "The Clean Transaction History Premium – An Upside To Regulatory Compliance & Risk Management"
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{
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -2207,36 +2207,32 @@\n om a regulatory \n-and \n compliance risk \n@@ -2226,16 +2226,20 @@\n pliance \n+and \n risk man\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"risk\",\"regulation\",\"sdr\",\"ocd-resteem\"],\"image\":[\"https://azcdn.messenger.pgsitecore.com/en-us/-/media/mrclean/Images/BrandExperience/MetaImage/HomepageCleaningProductsSolutions.jpg?v=1-201710201128\",\"https://www.riotgames.com/darkroom/1440/b71ace4a13f127d6c79f6f3872589416:702844724d49733d39518eda627a3bd6/london.jpg\",\"https://thefatkidinside.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/overnight-shanghai-36-hours-in-the-city-716x375.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/CoinJoin\",\"https://lightning.network/\",\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schnorr_signature\",\"https://twitter.com/nic__carter?lang=en\",\"https://twitter.com/danheld?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\",\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\",\"https://steemit.com/edge/@maven360/the-timeliness-of-edge-defining-the-retail-investor-s-primary-advantage\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "parent_permlink": "compliance",
      "permlink": "the-clean-transaction-premium-btc-regulatory-and-compliance-risk-management",
      "title": "The Clean Transaction History Premium – An Upside To Regulatory Compliance & Risk Management"
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "@@ -1,113 +1,4 @@\n-Admittedly, this article can be construed as more of a thought exercise rather than any sort of prediction.%0A%0A\n Whil\n@@ -23,17 +23,17 @@\n Bitcoin \n-(\n+*\n currentl\n@@ -37,37 +37,37 @@\n ntly\n-) has an inherent immunity to\n+* stands a chance at avoiding\n  the\n@@ -366,79 +366,760 @@\n age?\n+ \n %0A%0A\n-I will refer to this %22yet-to-be-developed%22 digital currency as SDR, i\n+And who is to suggest that privacy will ever be fully realized on Bitcoin? It is currently very difficult to maintain full privacy throughout a full transaction life cycle, and the powers that be are not exactly pro-privacy. To automatically assume that Bitcoin will offer any individual the ability to privately transact moving forward does not factor in the nuance of the situation.%0A%0A## In fact, miners and OTC desks already acknowledge a  3-5%25 premium to spot price for newly mined BTC, so this article merely extrapolates where this premium can go from here.%0A%3Cbr%3E%0A%0APrivacy versus regulatory and technical issues aside, let's just say that a %22yet-to-be-developed%22 digital currency with minimal privacy features is going to be released tomorrow. I\n n re\n@@ -1201,36 +1201,87 @@\n work\n-. The same approach\n+, let's call this currency %22SDR%22, and assume it follows a similar path as\n  that \n-is \n bein\n@@ -5904,16 +5904,217 @@\n enter%3E%0A%0A\n+%3Ccenter%3E https://thefatkidinside.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/overnight-shanghai-36-hours-in-the-city-716x375.jpg%3C/center%3E%0A%3Ccenter%3E%3Ci%3EShady Shanghai likely being the first implentation%3C/i%3E%3C/center%3E%0A%0A\n ### So w\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"risk\",\"regulation\",\"sdr\",\"ocd-resteem\"],\"image\":[\"https://azcdn.messenger.pgsitecore.com/en-us/-/media/mrclean/Images/BrandExperience/MetaImage/HomepageCleaningProductsSolutions.jpg?v=1-201710201128\",\"https://www.riotgames.com/darkroom/1440/b71ace4a13f127d6c79f6f3872589416:702844724d49733d39518eda627a3bd6/london.jpg\",\"https://thefatkidinside.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/overnight-shanghai-36-hours-in-the-city-716x375.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/CoinJoin\",\"https://lightning.network/\",\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schnorr_signature\",\"https://twitter.com/nic__carter?lang=en\",\"https://twitter.com/danheld?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\",\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\",\"https://steemit.com/edge/@maven360/the-timeliness-of-edge-defining-the-retail-investor-s-primary-advantage\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "body": "@@ -6062,24 +6062,763 @@\n ll early. %0A%0A\n+However, in terms of potential catalysts, there is a fire-storm on the horizon of mainstream narrative shifts in the form of %3Ca href=%22https://www.theepochtimes.com/does-china-have-your-dna_2832301.html%22 target=%22_blank%22%3EChinese companies having the DNA sequences%3C/a%3E of virtually all US citizens who have submitted to DNA tests.%0A%0AOnce this knowledge becomes common knowledge, things will shift rapidly. Just ask yourself, how many third party vendors in the form of suppliers, data managers, organizers, IT facilitators, medical processing labs, payment processors, and the like have access to the DNA that you freely chose to send to them?%0A%0AFollow the money and you will be shocked at what %22private%22 companies make the supply chain list.%0A%0A\n %3Ccenter%3Ehttp\n",
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      "body": "@@ -1,93 +1,4 @@\n-Institutional money is about to come cascading into crypto markets, let me explain why.%0A%0A\n %3Ci%3E \n@@ -1684,14 +1684,20 @@\n he p\n-rivate\n+ublic equity\n  mar\n@@ -8558,22 +8558,12 @@\n  in \n-the days ahead\n+2018\n , bu\n",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Western culture is obsessed with convenience. It has been the single most influential characteristic  driving our economy ever since the Industrial Revolution. It is prevalent in our marketing for consumer goods, food, transportation, entertainment, health, and even romance. <I>Here is a trailer for Minimalism; I recommend everyone watch this, but for this article's purposes pay attention to the first 1:12 specifically. </I>\n\n<center> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Co1Iptd4p4 </center>\n\nRight now, the promise of Bitcoin is garnering significant attention because people think it is a convenient way to get rich. There is also a general sense that something is awry. The zeitgeist of post-911, post GFC is upon us (GFC referring to 2008 Great Recession). The populace has recognized that our government is <a href=\"https://steemit.com/news/@maven360/cia-whistleblower-spills-the-beans-on-everything-real-news\">no longer operating as it should.</a>  \n\nIn response, the prospect of having a currency other than our government-backed currency is an attractive one and it is gaining traction rapidly. \n\nHowever, most accepting that Bitcoin is a hedge against government-backed currency are missing the entire purpose of why cryptocurrency offers revolutionary potential. It offers the potential for us to return to a state of liberty, freedom, and most importantly, a value-based society instead of legislative-based. \n\n<center><i>\"The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.\"</i> — Tacitus</center>\n \n\nBitcoin is the earliest mover in a very influential space: decentralized money. Some may compare Bitcoin to AOL. Revolutionary at first, but in the long-term just the first step into something that is really much larger than just one company. Others may say it is the only cryptocurrency that will survive the \"purge\". I maintain a stance somewhere in between these arguments. \n\nCrypto is all about decentralization. So to think that just one or two cryptos will garner the market caps of an Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc. is misleading. The aforementioned companies operate with one goal in mind: centralization. Centralization of information. Particularly, our personal information. \n\nThese centralized companies have been co-opted by more nefarious parties to create a surveillance-state. What has been tested, refined, and optimized against our enemies in a war-time setting has been brought back to our country and used upon us, the people. <I> I recommend you watch the entire Vice Report below, but specifically pay attention to the 9:00 - 10:00 mark.</I>\n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucRWyGKBVzo</center>\n\nNow Bitcoin is being marketed as not only a way to get out of government backed fiat, but also a way to maintain some form of privacy. Bitcoin is anonymous, according to the media. Well guess what? It is not. In fact, it is easier to track because it all happens digitally. Meaning, the surveillance state that Snowden exposed has your IP Address, your operating system, your camera, your microphones, your wallet address, your transaction history, everything. If you are still worried about privacy today, and you are looking to Bitcoin as your solution, I recommend you stick to good old cash. Cash is still more private than Bitcoin, believe it or not.\n\nWhich brings me to my point. Cryptocurrency truly has the potential to be revolutionary at a time when governments across the world are working towards <a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-41100613\">outlawing</a> physical cash (meaning the paper in your wallet), all while promoting a narrative of digital assets being CONVENIENT and cash INCONVENIENT. Yes, that’s right. More of the same from the same entities that have been in power for decades. You cannot fault them for sticking to their guns, it has worked up until this point.\n\nAt the same time a number of independent digital assets are being created (while others are undoubtedly years away from being developed) that offer privacy AND convenience. These are the assets that I recommend you acquire because I suspect that just as the narrative towards Bitcoin has shifted this year (one from only drug dealers and terrorists use it to “moon-shot\" and \"$100k per coin\"), so too will the attitude of privacy being a priority over convenience. \n\nAll of the money entering the crypto space is simply buying Bitcoin to (1) speculate (2) buy other crypto assets or (3) hedge against government fiat. <i>(4) Institutional investors are also entering starter positions so that they are not the odd man out should Bitcoin truly moon shot. </i>\n\nThe narrative of government debts being unsustainable and unprecedented central bank manipulation of interest rates (and subsequently, that of <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\">bond markets</a>) having consequences is catching on. Yet, what I believe many fail to realize is that all of this sovereign debt, market manipulation, and consumerism based culture is driven by none other than convenience. Convenience is a benign concept on its own, however it is being used just as sex is in marketing. It is used to market us anything and everything, and it's effective. <i>Below is my favorite satirical portrayal of our obsession with convenience projected out into the future, the movie Wall-E. </I>\n\n<center>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xToQ4cIHkk</center>\n\nAs folks come to realize that a life driven by consumption and convenience is an empty shell of an existence, only then will they realize that convenience is not such a benevolent thing to pursue. The things in life worth pursuing are often the ones that are more difficult. Make no mistake, it will be difficult for some to rid their lives of the Facebooks, Googles, Amazons, and others offering unparalleled convenience. Sadly, there are accounts of people becoming addicted to these conveniences. This is an example of how perverse our obsession with convenience has become.\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/sm-addiction.jpg?w=1646</center>\t\n\n### The thing to keep in mind is this: once the tipping point is reached (and it is rapidly approaching us my friends) then the narrative will become one of a deeper context. Instead of simply discussing superficial topics and avoiding the serious discussions, as a society, we will begin to engage in meaningful discussion. I believe that discussion will be based around privacy. Privacy over convenience. And yes, privacy and convenience, but in that order.\n<br>\nOnce this narrative shifts into the next chapter of privacy over convenience, then I look for assets that offer privacy to surge in value. Currently, the markets provide us with limited options for privacy.  My research currently includes the likes of Monero, Pivx, Cloakcoin, and Zcash in the crypto markets <i>and it is another reason why I am extremely bullish on <a href=\"https://steemit.com/investing/@maven360/the-cheat-sheet-investing\">cybersecurity</a> in the equity markets.</i>  \n\nAt this point in time, we are still awaiting the regulatory green-light, so everything seems to be on hold in the crypto market. Nonetheless, rest assured that the next frontier in the this revolutionary landscape will be one of privacy, and assets that reflect this line of thinking will only increase in value moving forward in the long run. This is one of the largest, structural trends I currently foresee. Determining how long it will take to play out is an entirely different conversation, and one I do not feel equipped to touch on at this time.\n\nWhile many are just now stumbling onto the concept of decentralization, it seems this concept is still in its nascent stage. That is why analysts are projecting the market caps of centralized companies (FAANG's) onto these decentralized crypto companies and forecasting Bitcoin at $100K per token and specific ICO's as the new Google, the new Dropbox, the new JPMorgan, etc.\n\nThese forecasts are misguided because they are applying centralized business market caps onto decentralized business prospects, yet they are fundamentally correct in assuming capital will flow into the space because <i>this is the future.</i> As dynamic a market this is, my bet is that the next chapter in cryptocurrency will revolve around privacy. Privacy is what we all want (even if we are currently unaware), and we can package privacy into convenience and decentralization all at the same time.\n\n### Here is the best case scenario:\nThe marketplace maintains a number of companies/assets/cryptos (or whatever comes out the other side of regulation) that compete with one another, offer privacy, offer convenience, and do not require us to surrender our data and personal information, or at least limit it.\n\nWhile we are still in the first phase of this technology where we are determining the legal framework, exploring the possible applications, and identifying which of the current cryptocurrencies and ICO's are legitimate, it seems that the next phase will be driven by privacy and convenience. If we simply allow the market to be driven by convenience alone, then it seems the revolutionary potential of the blockchain technology has been lost on the masses and we will have more of the same.\n\nStay informed my friends.\n<br>\n\n\n<i>\"The older I get, the more I realize the value of privacy, cultivating your circle, and only letting certain people in. You can be open, honest, and real while still understanding not everyone deserves a seat at the table of your life.\"</i> — Unknown \n<br>\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n### If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your <a href=\"http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=frenemy\">frenemies.</a>",
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      "body": "@@ -5285,209 +5285,8 @@\n r%3E%0A%0A\n-%3Ccenter%3E https://thefatkidinside.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/overnight-shanghai-36-hours-in-the-city-716x375.jpg%3C/center%3E%0A%3Ccenter%3E%3Ci%3EShady Shanghai likely being the first implentation%3C/i%3E%3C/center%3E%0A%0A\n ### \n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"risk\",\"regulation\",\"sdr\",\"ocd-resteem\"],\"image\":[\"https://azcdn.messenger.pgsitecore.com/en-us/-/media/mrclean/Images/BrandExperience/MetaImage/HomepageCleaningProductsSolutions.jpg?v=1-201710201128\",\"https://www.riotgames.com/darkroom/1440/b71ace4a13f127d6c79f6f3872589416:702844724d49733d39518eda627a3bd6/london.jpg\"],\"links\":[\"https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/CoinJoin\",\"https://lightning.network/\",\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schnorr_signature\",\"https://twitter.com/nic__carter?lang=en\",\"https://twitter.com/danheld?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\",\"https://steemit.com/culture/@maven360/the-cultivation-of-convenience-musing-crypto-investing\",\"https://steemit.com/edge/@maven360/the-timeliness-of-edge-defining-the-retail-investor-s-primary-advantage\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "body": "@@ -5281,16 +5281,217 @@\n enter%3E%0A%0A\n+%3Ccenter%3E https://thefatkidinside.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/overnight-shanghai-36-hours-in-the-city-716x375.jpg%3C/center%3E%0A%3Ccenter%3E%3Ci%3EShady Shanghai likely being the first implentation%3C/i%3E%3C/center%3E%0A%0A\n ### So w\n",
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      "author": "maven360",
      "body": "Without going too deeply into the weeds, I want to begin by pointing out the multitude of issues we are currently facing.\n\n<center> https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/1.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/2.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/3.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/4.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/5.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/6.jpg?w=676</center>\n\nSuffice it to say, there is a lot going on. Unfortunately, much of it should be inconceivable for a community that considers itself as advanced and civilized as we do. I will leave it at that.\n\n## My point being that we have been desensitized to the things that ought to matter the most. \n<br>\nWhether this desensitization comes as a result of intentional origins (\"Deep State control\") or is inherent within man’s nature (perhaps our overwhelming world is too much for our pre-programmed brains), we’ve allowed ourselves to become desensitized to the largest sources of suffering in our species. \n\nIs it too far fetched to state that it's likely a combination of these two aspects (control and nature), in addition to a myriad of others that are the source(s) behind our desensitized world?\n\nIn place of these issues, we plaster over them with this sort of noise. \n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/11.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/10.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/9.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/8.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/7.jpg?w=676</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/12.jpg?w=507&h=766</center>\n\nPretty ground breaking material, I know.\n\n## The reason I believe this desensitization has reached new heights is because of our internal code that drives us to compete for survival. Only the fittest survive, and for better or worse, fitness is defined primarily by material means these days. \n<br>\nThe other matter, mental health, ties directly into all of this by the way. And it goes without saying that we have a mental health crisis on our hands. This is manifesting itself in drug addiction, suicide, depression, anxiety, PTSD, shootings, homelessness, and countless others that will only become clearer with time.\n\nWe are living in a zeitgeist of uncertainty, fear, and above all else, competition. Even if the majority do not like to acknowledge it, it is evident that they are aware of it, at least subconsciously.\n\nAnd I will admit to it, myself. 9/11, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the resulting conflicts, surveillance states, and a predominantly money-hungry culture have had a very influential impact on the course of my life, just as they so clearly have on the courses of the lives around me.\n\nFocusing in on the matter at hand, finances, the 2008 GFC has had a lasting impact that can still be felt in markets today.\n\nMany are becoming overly complacent in the post-2008 financial world of ours that has priced risk using the cheapest valuations in history. In other words, risk is severely undervalued. \n\nThis is a result of many things, but the main culprit lies in the tweaking of interest rates by <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-i-investing\" target=\"_blank\">central banks </a>  by means of <a href=\"https://steemit.com/money/@maven360/the-devil-is-in-the-details-part-2-investing\n\" target=\"_blank\">saturating bond markets </a> with “printed” money.\n\nOf course, interest rates are the price of money.  They serve as a baseline pricing mechanism that the global marketplace uses to price other assets with various risk profiles.\n\nWhich is a roundabout way to say that the Honey Nut Cheerios you buy are priced in such a way that General Mills takes into account current, and projected, interest rates. Interest rates determine the price of everything. Most importantly,  <a href=\"https://steemit.com/risk-management/@maven360/what-is-risk\" target=\"_blank\">risk.</a>\n\n<center>https://s3.images-iherb.com/gem/gem27527/v/6.jpg</center>\n<i><center>You won't find this info on the back of the box.</center></i>\n\n## What many  fail to recognize is that financial risk is directly linked to the many other incarnations of risk: social friction, political upheaval, armed conflict et. all. So it literally, and figuratively, pays to pay attention to financial risk.\n<br>\nTaking into consideration the zeitgeist of our times, the collective consciousness of post-2008 men and women of all demographics, the fact that we have been desensitized to some of the largest sources of suffering in our world, and I firmly believe that Bitcoin is being undervalued right now.\n\nOf course, I use Bitcoin in reference to the currency itself, but also as a proxy for the <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@maven360/why-you-should-allocate-to-crypto-assets\" target=\"_blank\">wider digital asset space. </a> \n\nNow, I can hear some of you saying, “Great. Another article on Bitcoin.”\n\nThat's right. The price has corrected to a range that is returning to levels of health and sustainability. Of course, the coverage of the space will lead you to believe that now is a dangerous time to be getting in. There are hacks all the time. It is not safe. It’s not backed by anything. It’s rat poison.  \n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/13.jpg?w=1660</center>\n\n<center>https://maveninvesting.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/21.jpg?w=1660</center>\n\nAll that noise aside, I just want to point out that of all things to be desensitized to in this life, I find it foolhardy to be desensitized to your financial prospects. As I have stated before, personal finances are merely an extension of your well-being, a proxy for the likelihood of your survival. \n\nThis is not to say that the pursuit of money is everything in life (remember money reflects <a href=\"https://steemit.com/mental-framework/@maven360/to-build-anew-or-to-retrofit-money-is-time\" target=\"_blank\">your time</a> ), but I do not think I must explain myself in saying that it is not very often I encounter an individual who wishes he, or she, had less money.\n\n## So, desensitize yourself to the fear and the misinformation being spread around with regards to the world around you. Whether it be in politics, social issues, religion, war, and yes, crypto assets, like Bitcoin. Instead, sensitize yourself to the issues that truly matter. Peace of mind, friends, and health are a fantastic place to begin.\n<br>\nWhen you really think about it, the largest structural trends with the most momentum these days are those that help people re-align their sensitivities. Yoga (mindfulness), clean eating and juicing (detoxing), social media ( finding friends), dating services (finding love), and all sorts of shared economy services (sharing with others). \n\nWhile people may be saying one thing, it pays to pay attention to what they do instead. \n\nAnd what I see people doing is asking more questions, working to understand more complex structures like that of our monetary system, that of our political system, that of the concept of nation-states, looking to increase incomes via entrepreneurial means, learning new skills on the side, and looking to hedge and to adapt to a changing world all while finding a tribe or community to share their experiences with. \n\n## All of what I see plays bullishly into an alternative asset that draws its capital from a base of individuals who, more so than anything else, are looking to adapt and evolve.\n<br>\n\nMuch like investing in the commodities space, anytime you can invest in a commodity at, or below, the price of production then you are placing yourself into an opportunistic position to capitalize on rising prices. Of course, the major risk in this assumption is that said commodity demand with outpace supply (and as always, timing), which is clearly going to be the case with Bitcoin as evidenced by people’s actions, not their words. \n\nDo us both a favor, would you? If you have yet to do so, create a plan for starting a position in Bitcoin in this price range ( approaching the <a href=\"https://s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets.coinshares.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/06140515/MiningWhitepaperFinal.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">cost of mining</a> ,or cheaper) and share this article. \n\nFor anyone reading this who thinks, \"Can this argument not also be applied to gold and other precious metals?\" You are right, <a href=\"https://steemit.com/cryptocurrencies/@maven360/short-term-profiteering-v-crypto-bug-gone-viral-crypto-investing\" target=\"_blank\">it can be.</a> \n\nI am not saying go all-in on crypto, but instead, view them as call options on a narrative that is, again, increasingly skeptical of anything and everything that was established within the last 50+ years. Or, to keep with convention of the commodities space, treat Bitcoin as you would a speculative miner who has substantial leverage to the price of the underlying narrative. \n\n<center>http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-shortly-the-public-will-be-unable-to-reason-or-think-for-themselves-they-ll-only-be-zbigniew-brzezinski-82-48-78.jpg</center>\n\n\n<i>DISCLAIMER : This content is for informational, educational and research purposes only. This post is not to be taken as personalized investment advice.</i>\n\n## If you found this interesting, please up-vote and chime in via the comments. If not, feel free to forward this to your frenemies.",
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "narrative-arbitrage",
      "permlink": "the-monetization-of-desensitization",
      "title": "The Monetization Of Desensitization – Mainstream Narrative v Zeitgeist"
    }
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  "timestamp": "2019-10-28T17:22:18",
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