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      "author": "steemitboard",
      "permlink": "steemitboard-notify-manishape-20190711t050617000z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Congratulations @manishape! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@manishape/birthday3.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 3 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@manishape) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=manishape)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "Congratulations @manishape! You have received a personal award!\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@manishape/birthday2.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@manishape)  2 Years on Steemit\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n[SteemitBoard World Cup Contest - Croatia vs England](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-world-cup-contest-croatia-vs-england)\n\n---\n**Participate in the [SteemitBoard World Cup Contest](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-world-cup-contest-collect-badges-and-win-free-sbd)!**\nCollect World Cup badges and win free SBD\nSupport the Gold Sponsors of the contest: [@good-karma](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=good-karma&approve=1) and [@lukestokes](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=lukestokes.mhth&approve=1)\n\n---\n\n> Do you like [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)? Then **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "body": "100% agree with ignoring sunk costs, except with crypto being speculative by nature, I think any short term hits to USD ROI can be written off by mining and holding until price rises in the future.  They just ration their sell offs to cover costs, and hold the rest in BTC to realize future gains.\n\nWe also know that there's plenty of uber-cheap electricity in places like China right now, so once new asics start flooding the markets I can't imagine them not going to use.  This will probably push these miners barely getting by out at that point.  Either way, it's always interesting to sit back and watch the correlations between hashrate and price, especially since Bitcoin is still so young.",
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      "body": "Btc is the  Taiwan of the crypto market and a safe haven I look for value to increase. If you want to by alt coins it is likely you have to buy Bitcoin to do it.  Etherum is still to controversial.",
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      "permlink": "re-derekareith-re-manishape-bitcoin-hash-rate-peaked-at-the-halvening-20160725t031746204z",
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      "body": "Great reply...On a 180 day time scale, the variation is statistically significant at the 95% confidence.  I did not look on a larger scale because of the degree of variation.\nAlso, I would add that Microeconomic theory, and Finance 101, would say to ignore sunk costs (bought machines) and calculate ROI based on marginal cost (cost of electricity).",
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      "body": "\"Virtual currencies may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system.\" - Ben Bernanke",
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      "title": "Bitcoin Hash Rate Peaked at \"the Halvening\"",
      "body": "@@ -362,24 +362,8 @@\n  at \n-the unlikely at \n %CE%B1&lt\n",
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      "body": "Zoom out...\nhttps://blockchain.info/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=all\n\nFrom mid 2014 until Fall 2015 the hash rate was relatively flat.  What else was flat?  The price.  Price doubled, mining became more profitable, money flooded back into mining before the halving.  Now it will level sideways until the price moves up again.  If the price doesn't move up or moves down, maybe we see some drop in the hashrate, but I think this is overblown as many miners have invested thousands into equipment just in the past year, as you can see in the chart I linked. So they have no real reason to not utilize what they've recently paid for, even if it is barely profitable.",
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      "body": "\"Bitcoin will do to banks what email did to the postal industry\" - Rick Falkvinge",
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      "author": "manishape",
      "permlink": "bitcoin-hash-rate-peaked-at-the-halvening",
      "title": "Bitcoin Hash Rate Peaked at \"the Halvening\"",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgsafe.org/57c4bc31f2.jpg\" width=\"678\" height=\"412\"/></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>The Bitcoin Hash Rate peaked near the day of the reward halving and is since on a decline. &nbsp;This could mean that capital investment in mining has slowed or may just be a statistical dip in the hash rate variation (however this is statistically unlikely at the unlikely at α&lt;.05). &nbsp;</p>\n<p>Considering the <a href=\"https://blockchain.info/vi/charts/market-price\">BTCUSD price</a> has been fairly stable for the month prior, this reality is not at all unexpected. &nbsp;If this trend is true and miners are operating anywhere near where Marginal Cost equals Marginal Revenue, then the only way we will see an increase in hash rate again is if the cost of electricity goes down or the value of the subsequent mined coins go up.</p>\n<p>Is hashing power moving to other crypto-networks? &nbsp;Are miners turning off their machines? &nbsp;Is this a blip in the trend? &nbsp;Is this what the eve of the <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse\">Collapse of the Hittite Empire</a> looked like? &nbsp;Or should we care...yet?</p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "",
      "body": ">Previous post titled \"I am Chris, Finance I do.\"\n>This post: \"Bitcoin and astrology\"\nLmao",
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      "title": "Bitcoin and Astrology (Vid from 2014)",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>Here is a must watch vid (from 2014) for any BTCer:</p>\n<p>P<a href=\"https://youtu.be/5AIRmQbH2jI\">robably the most comprehensive BTC analysis I have heard to date. &nbsp;Diana, the Astrologist, just absolutely crushes!!!!</a></p>\n<p>Had to share. &nbsp;I am gonna email her about Core v Classic, get her take...will keep you all in the loop.<img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/701d34028f.jpg\" width=\"499\" height=\"269\"/></p>\n</html>",
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      "author": "manishape",
      "permlink": "chris-i-am-finance-i-do",
      "title": "Chris I am, Finance I do",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/6fbd17355e.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\"/></p>\n<p>I am a financial analyst consultant with an MBA in Finance and an MA in international political economy.</p>\n<p>I must say that dang Steemit.com looks coo!!!. &nbsp;Looking forward to poke around more and check what you all are posting. &nbsp;Already seems like a little more sophisticated group than some other social sites.</p>\n<p>I plan on posting some of my finance/economics/bitcoin related blogs on here. &nbsp;Anything else you think someone of my ilk should check out, feel free to holler.</p>\n<p>What a beautiful online horizon I can see...See you around.</p>\n<p>Chris</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "Great to have you here!\n\nHere are some tips if you're not aware of already:\n* Secure your account: https://steemit.com/steemit-guides/@pfunk/your-steem-account-is-worth-money-how-to-secure-it-with-a-new-owner-key-to-keep-it-yours-forever\n* Verify your account and build your reputation: https://steemit.com/steem/@tuck-fheman/verified-accounts--reputation-system\n* Contribute with your own contents: https://steemit.com/steem/@grittenald/copy-paste-steal-cite-your-sources, and https://steemit.com/steemit/@pfunk/lets-discuss-verification-of-user-accounts-posting-previous-work-to-prevent-impersonation\n* Properly tagging your posts, especially when your content is `#NSFW` or for `#test` only\n* Know how Steemit works: https://steemit.com/steemit/@donkeypong/still-confused-by-steem-steem-dollars-and-steem-power-the-power-plant-analogy ",
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      "title": "Chris I am, Finance I do",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/6fbd17355e.jpg\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\"/></p>\n<p>I am a financial analyst consultant with an MBA in Finance and an MA in international political economy.</p>\n<p>I must say that dang Steemit.com looks coo!!!. &nbsp;Looking forward to poke around more and check what you all are posting. &nbsp;Already seems like a little more sophisticated group than some other social sites.</p>\n<p>I plan on posting some of my finance/economics/bitcoin related blogs on here. &nbsp;Anything else you think someone of my ilk should check out, feel free to holler.</p>\n<p>What a beautiful online horizon I can see...See you around.</p>\n<p>Chris</p>\n</html>",
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      "author": "manishape",
      "permlink": "a-demand-side-discussion-of-the-bitcoin-halvening-econ-101",
      "title": "A Demand Side Discussion of the Bitcoin “Halvening” (Econ 101)",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/5a2e12912f.png\"/><img src=\"http://fractalfinance3000.blogspot.com/2016/07/a-demand-side-discussion-of-bitcoin_8.html\"/>&nbsp;There has been sparse discussion on the impact of the BTC <em>halvening</em> on the BTCUSD price…*ahem*…<br>\n</p>\n<p>Well, no, there has been <em>some,</em> but not enough, and largely supply-side driven. &nbsp;Not much on the demand side, so I will add my 2 Pesos worth.</p>\n<p>There are two sides of every market, buyers and sellers, consumers and producers, and one thing is for certain is that the relative increase in BTC available for sale will begin to <a href=\"http://www.nasdaq.com/article/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving-and-why-is-it-important-cm646655\">increase at a decreasing rate starting later this weekend</a>. &nbsp;Although this is not technically a <em>decrease in supply,</em> but slightly more accurately a <em>decrease in the</em> <em>rate of increase in supply</em>, I will hereby outline the event as if it is actually a decrease in supply, for simplification purposes. &nbsp;I understand that this detracts from any contribution of this analysis, but I think it may be suitable to present a few relevant ideas.</p>\n<p>Also, let's remember that the incremental increase in adoption and popularity&nbsp;of bitcoin&nbsp;is an&nbsp;<em>increase</em> in demand.&nbsp; What I am trying to better understand is the current elasticity of demand, or the slope, in the short-run demand curve.</p>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin Demand</strong></p>\n<p>The demand for Gold is driven by speculation and fabrication. &nbsp;Consumers purchase gold for use in <a href=\"http://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends-explained\">industry, jewelry, central banking, technology and investment</a>. &nbsp;In an extreme case, if Jay-Z and Kim Kardashian simultaneously decry that platinum is superior to gold as a wearable status symbol&nbsp;while platinum distributors convince the public that gold is no longer suitable for engagement bands, the demand for gold will decrease accordingly. &nbsp;One of its primary use cases would be undermined. &nbsp;These proportions are relatively understood by analysts and so an adequate adjustment in price would be expected according to changes in expectations as trends emerge, according to the perfect market hypothesis.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;Bitcoin experiences a similar market in that it has some <a href=\"http://bitcoinintro.com/bitcoin-overview/use-cases/\">well known use cases</a>. However, altercations in the structure of the demand side is effectively unobservable. &nbsp;The nature of BTC as a cryptocurrency &nbsp;makes it difficult to know what portion of demand is supported by actual use cases and what is merely speculative. &nbsp;This unknown element contributes to price volatility as the perfect market hypothesis is pretty much out of the question. &nbsp;Therefore, analysts who focus on the supply side are left to wonder about demand. &nbsp;I will propose a few possible scenarios of the BTC demand structure and then hypothesize how each would be affected by a declining rate of an increase in supply, as determined by the subsequent halving of the miner reward.</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 1: Inelastic Demand</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;Commodities with an inelastic demand are genuinely those which are <em>needed</em> by consumers and where there are limited substitutes. &nbsp;This means that a huge increase in price would not cause a huge decrease in the quantity demanded. &nbsp;Conversely, a large downward shift in price would not trigger a massive buying spree.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;There are reasons to believe that this may be true. &nbsp;For one, I will mention that BTC does many things better than other currencies and commodities (which the intended audience of this blog would happily list at length). &nbsp;The primary transactional use cases are those that are <a href=\"http://www.coindesk.com/europol-bitcoins-popularity-growing-in-illicit-online-markets/\">illicit where users require</a> a high degree of discretion. &nbsp;These consumers will likely use BTC for their purposes even at high prices as the system has been stress tested to be suitable for their needs&nbsp;more than other cryptos. &nbsp;Also, it was not too long ago when the price for BTC was half of its current value at $650, and the system <a href=\"http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-daily-transactions/\">did not see a huge uptick in quantity of transactions</a> at these price levels. In fact the relationship is positively correlated and not negative. &nbsp;&nbsp;It could also be argued that speculators regard BTC as a valuable holding asset and due to its depreciating nature, would still be inclined to purchase it even at elevated prices (<a href=\"https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1p2o9g/to_the_moon/\">to the moooooon</a>!!). &nbsp;If indeed the market for BTC is inelastic, than the <em>halvening</em> may have the following effect:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/59208c4535.jpg\" width=\"320\" height=\"280\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>In the short-run, the decrease in the rate of new BTC supply will shift the supply curve from S1 to S2. &nbsp;The implied affect would be a large increase in price ($1 to $2) while the quantity demanded would decline relatively less (Q1 to Q2).</p>\n<p>&nbsp;However, there is evidence to suggest that the BTC market is not inelastic, but rather, elastic.</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 2: Elastic Demand</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;One of the major factors which are characteristics of an elastic demand curve is the quantity and quality of substitutes. &nbsp;Although there are many superior qualities of BTC compared to its substitutes, these benefits have yet to be completely actualized. &nbsp;There are over 550 competing crypotcurrencies, most are garbage but others are gaining in esteem. &nbsp;PayPal, credit cards, Western Union, and other payment and transfer services have an infrastructure in place which makes them exponentially more viable in the internet space currently. &nbsp;With the addition of cash, these economic technologies are more reasonably versatile in the brick-n-mortar world as well. &nbsp;Gold, and other precious metals, are readily available with mature markets and have a longer historical capacity as a store of value. &nbsp;Also, the extent to which the illicit demand exists may help to steepen the demand curve, but potentially only to a modest degree.&nbsp; Remittances, not likely a big demand-curve-steepener either.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;If indeed the demand curve for BTC is elastic than the <em>halvening</em> may have the following impact:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/5927c82f5a.jpg\" width=\"320\" height=\"286\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;If this is the case than the decline in the rate of new BTC supply will have a relatively small impact on its price ($1 to $2).</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 3: Price Drives Speculation, then a fall</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;Let’s assume for this scenario that the demand for BTC is neither elastic nor inelastic. &nbsp;Undoubtedly, the price of BTC draws headlines: when it moves, <a href=\"http://www.pymnts.com/news/bitcoin-tracker/2016/bitcoin-price-surge-trends/\">journalists write about it</a>. &nbsp;The <em>halvening</em> has experienced a high volume of comments and it will likely continue into, and after, the event itself. &nbsp;This publicity could draw the public’s attention to the scarcity aspect of BTC to such a degree that the market experiences a large influx of consumers/speculators. &nbsp;This scenario may look something like this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/592c84bffe.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"350\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;The <em>halvening</em> takes place and moves the S-curve from S1 to S2. &nbsp;This will increase the price from $1 to $2.</p>\n<p>· &nbsp;The publicity of the event brings many to see BTC’s scarcity element and in a herd mentality, shift the demand curve from D1 to D2. &nbsp;This increase in demand has an upward pressure on the price moving it from $2 to $3.</p>\n<p>· &nbsp;At the higher price, BTC hoarders (hodlers) may be enticed to enter the market as sellers, shifting the S-curve from S2 to S3, resulting in a downward pressure on price from $3 to $4.</p>\n<p>Evidence for this behavior has been seen during 2013 (even though <a href=\"https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4hx3q9/according_to_the_mtgox_leaks_from_early_2014_our/\">“Satoshi” bought some BTC at $1,000+</a>) as well as the drops of recent months at various peaks. &nbsp;Sorry Veblen…</p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;It should be noted that none of these scenarios are likely true and that my only intention for posting this is to encourage some further critical analysis to the effect of the <em>halvening</em> as it pertains to demand. &nbsp;Is the demand curve elastic? Inelastic? Curvilinear? Parabolic? &nbsp;What are the characteristics of the demand components?<br>\nThe US Federal Reserve has dramatically <a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1\">increased the money supply since 2008</a>&nbsp;and has not triggered a massive devaluation of&nbsp;the&nbsp;US Dollar, as inflationists&nbsp;had predicted.&nbsp; This is partly due to commodity price declines, but also because the demand for US denominated debt and assets, coming largely from China, has increased since the 2008 crisis because these are viewed as safer instruments to store value.&nbsp; Demand matters.<br>\nIt will be interesting to see what happens to the price of substitutes in the following months after the <em>halvening</em>. &nbsp;Gary North, please don’t reply, thanks…</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/59378dcbd7.png\" width=\"638\" height=\"85\"/></p>\n</html>",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"crypto\",\"bitcoin\"],\"image\":[\"http://i.imgsafe.org/5a2e12912f.png\",\"http://fractalfinance3000.blogspot.com/2016/07/a-demand-side-discussion-of-bitcoin_8.html\",\"http://i.imgsafe.org/59208c4535.jpg\",\"http://i.imgsafe.org/5927c82f5a.jpg\",\"http://i.imgsafe.org/592c84bffe.jpg\",\"http://i.imgsafe.org/59378dcbd7.png\"],\"links\":[\"http://www.nasdaq.com/article/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving-and-why-is-it-important-cm646655\",\"http://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends-explained\",\"http://bitcoinintro.com/bitcoin-overview/use-cases/\",\"http://www.coindesk.com/europol-bitcoins-popularity-growing-in-illicit-online-markets/\",\"http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-daily-transactions/\",\"https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1p2o9g/to_the_moon/\",\"http://www.pymnts.com/news/bitcoin-tracker/2016/bitcoin-price-surge-trends/\",\"https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4hx3q9/according_to_the_mtgox_leaks_from_early_2014_our/\",\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1\"]}"
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      "parent_author": "",
      "parent_permlink": "crypto",
      "author": "manishape",
      "permlink": "a-demand-side-discussion-of-the-bitcoin-halvening-econ-101",
      "title": "A Demand Side Discussion of the Bitcoin “Halvening” (Econ 101)",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/5a2e12912f.png\"/><img src=\"http://fractalfinance3000.blogspot.com/2016/07/a-demand-side-discussion-of-bitcoin_8.html\"/>&nbsp;There has been sparse discussion on the impact of the BTC <em>halvening</em> on the BTCUSD price…*ahem*…<br>\n</p>\n<p>Well, no, there has been <em>some,</em> but not enough, and largely supply-side driven. &nbsp;Not much on the demand side, so I will add my 2 Pesos worth.</p>\n<p>There are two sides of every market, buyers and sellers, consumers and producers, and one thing is for certain is that the relative increase in BTC available for sale will begin to <a href=\"http://www.nasdaq.com/article/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving-and-why-is-it-important-cm646655\">increase at a decreasing rate starting later this weekend</a>. &nbsp;Although this is not technically a <em>decrease in supply,</em> but slightly more accurately a <em>decrease in the</em> <em>rate of increase in supply</em>, I will hereby outline the event as if it is actually a decrease in supply, for simplification purposes. &nbsp;I understand that this detracts from any contribution of this analysis, but I think it may be suitable to present a few relevant ideas.</p>\n<p>Also, let's remember that the incremental increase in adoption and popularity&nbsp;of bitcoin&nbsp;is an&nbsp;<em>increase</em> in demand.&nbsp; What I am trying to better understand is the current elasticity of demand, or the slope, in the short-run demand curve.</p>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin Demand</strong></p>\n<p>The demand for Gold is driven by speculation and fabrication. &nbsp;Consumers purchase gold for use in <a href=\"http://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends-explained\">industry, jewelry, central banking, technology and investment</a>. &nbsp;In an extreme case, if Jay-Z and Kim Kardashian simultaneously decry that platinum is superior to gold as a wearable status symbol&nbsp;while platinum distributors convince the public that gold is no longer suitable for engagement bands, the demand for gold will decrease accordingly. &nbsp;One of its primary use cases would be undermined. &nbsp;These proportions are relatively understood by analysts and so an adequate adjustment in price would be expected according to changes in expectations as trends emerge, according to the perfect market hypothesis.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;Bitcoin experiences a similar market in that it has some <a href=\"http://bitcoinintro.com/bitcoin-overview/use-cases/\">well known use cases</a>. However, altercations in the structure of the demand side is effectively unobservable. &nbsp;The nature of BTC as a cryptocurrency &nbsp;makes it difficult to know what portion of demand is supported by actual use cases and what is merely speculative. &nbsp;This unknown element contributes to price volatility as the perfect market hypothesis is pretty much out of the question. &nbsp;Therefore, analysts who focus on the supply side are left to wonder about demand. &nbsp;I will propose a few possible scenarios of the BTC demand structure and then hypothesize how each would be affected by a declining rate of an increase in supply, as determined by the subsequent halving of the miner reward.</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 1: Inelastic Demand</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;Commodities with an inelastic demand are genuinely those which are <em>needed</em> by consumers and where there are limited substitutes. &nbsp;This means that a huge increase in price would not cause a huge decrease in the quantity demanded. &nbsp;Conversely, a large downward shift in price would not trigger a massive buying spree.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;There are reasons to believe that this may be true. &nbsp;For one, I will mention that BTC does many things better than other currencies and commodities (which the intended audience of this blog would happily list at length). &nbsp;The primary transactional use cases are those that are <a href=\"http://www.coindesk.com/europol-bitcoins-popularity-growing-in-illicit-online-markets/\">illicit where users require</a> a high degree of discretion. &nbsp;These consumers will likely use BTC for their purposes even at high prices as the system has been stress tested to be suitable for their needs&nbsp;more than other cryptos. &nbsp;Also, it was not too long ago when the price for BTC was half of its current value at $650, and the system <a href=\"http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-daily-transactions/\">did not see a huge uptick in quantity of transactions</a> at these price levels. In fact the relationship is positively correlated and not negative. &nbsp;&nbsp;It could also be argued that speculators regard BTC as a valuable holding asset and due to its depreciating nature, would still be inclined to purchase it even at elevated prices (<a href=\"https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1p2o9g/to_the_moon/\">to the moooooon</a>!!). &nbsp;If indeed the market for BTC is inelastic, than the <em>halvening</em> may have the following effect:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/59208c4535.jpg\" width=\"320\" height=\"280\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>In the short-run, the decrease in the rate of new BTC supply will shift the supply curve from S1 to S2. &nbsp;The implied affect would be a large increase in price ($1 to $2) while the quantity demanded would decline relatively less (Q1 to Q2).</p>\n<p>&nbsp;However, there is evidence to suggest that the BTC market is not inelastic, but rather, elastic.</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 2: Elastic Demand</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;One of the major factors which are characteristics of an elastic demand curve is the quantity and quality of substitutes. &nbsp;Although there are many superior qualities of BTC compared to its substitutes, these benefits have yet to be completely actualized. &nbsp;There are over 550 competing crypotcurrencies, most are garbage but others are gaining in esteem. &nbsp;PayPal, credit cards, Western Union, and other payment and transfer services have an infrastructure in place which makes them exponentially more viable in the internet space currently. &nbsp;With the addition of cash, these economic technologies are more reasonably versatile in the brick-n-mortar world as well. &nbsp;Gold, and other precious metals, are readily available with mature markets and have a longer historical capacity as a store of value. &nbsp;Also, the extent to which the illicit demand exists may help to steepen the demand curve, but potentially only to a modest degree.&nbsp; Remittances, not likely a big demand-curve-steepener either.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;If indeed the demand curve for BTC is elastic than the <em>halvening</em> may have the following impact:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/5927c82f5a.jpg\" width=\"320\" height=\"286\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;If this is the case than the decline in the rate of new BTC supply will have a relatively small impact on its price ($1 to $2).</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 3: Price Drives Speculation, then a fall</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;Let’s assume for this scenario that the demand for BTC is neither elastic nor inelastic. &nbsp;Undoubtedly, the price of BTC draws headlines: when it moves, <a href=\"http://www.pymnts.com/news/bitcoin-tracker/2016/bitcoin-price-surge-trends/\">journalists write about it</a>. &nbsp;The <em>halvening</em> has experienced a high volume of comments and it will likely continue into, and after, the event itself. &nbsp;This publicity could draw the public’s attention to the scarcity aspect of BTC to such a degree that the market experiences a large influx of consumers/speculators. &nbsp;This scenario may look something like this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/592c84bffe.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"350\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;The <em>halvening</em> takes place and moves the S-curve from S1 to S2. &nbsp;This will increase the price from $1 to $2.</p>\n<p>· &nbsp;The publicity of the event brings many to see BTC’s scarcity element and in a herd mentality, shift the demand curve from D1 to D2. &nbsp;This increase in demand has an upward pressure on the price moving it from $2 to $3.</p>\n<p>· &nbsp;At the higher price, BTC hoarders (hodlers) may be enticed to enter the market as sellers, shifting the S-curve from S2 to S3, resulting in a downward pressure on price from $3 to $4.</p>\n<p>Evidence for this behavior has been seen during 2013 (even though <a href=\"https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4hx3q9/according_to_the_mtgox_leaks_from_early_2014_our/\">“Satoshi” bought some BTC at $1,000+</a>) as well as the drops of recent months at various peaks. &nbsp;Sorry Veblen…</p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;It should be noted that none of these scenarios are likely true and that my only intention for posting this is to encourage some further critical analysis to the effect of the <em>halvening</em> as it pertains to demand. &nbsp;Is the demand curve elastic? Inelastic? Curvilinear? Parabolic? &nbsp;What are the characteristics of the demand components?<br>\nThe US Federal Reserve has dramatically <a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1\">increased the money supply since 2008</a>&nbsp;and has not triggered a massive devaluation of&nbsp;the&nbsp;US Dollar, as inflationists&nbsp;had predicted.&nbsp; This is partly due to commodity price declines, but also because the demand for US denominated debt and assets, coming largely from China, has increased since the 2008 crisis because these are viewed as safer instruments to store value.&nbsp; Demand matters.<br>\nIt will be interesting to see what happens to the price of substitutes in the following months after the <em>halvening</em>. &nbsp;Gary North, please don’t reply, thanks…</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/59378dcbd7.png\" width=\"638\" height=\"85\"/></p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "just a thought, but  \"threaten to end your relationship if they didn't change their life?\" sounds similar to mandatory AA after conviction, no?",
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      "body": "great analysis, but i think we have yet to see the true effect of the halving.",
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      "title": "A Demand Side Discussion of the Bitcoin “Halvening” (Econ 101)",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"http://fractalfinance3000.blogspot.com/2016/07/a-demand-side-discussion-of-bitcoin_8.html\"/>&nbsp;There has been sparse discussion on the impact of the BTC <em>halvening</em> on the BTCUSD price…*ahem*…<br>\n</p>\n<p>Well, no, there has been <em>some,</em> but not enough, and largely supply-side driven. &nbsp;Not much on the demand side, so I will add my 2 Pesos worth.</p>\n<p>There are two sides of every market, buyers and sellers, consumers and producers, and one thing is for certain is that the relative increase in BTC available for sale will begin to <a href=\"http://www.nasdaq.com/article/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving-and-why-is-it-important-cm646655\">increase at a decreasing rate starting later this weekend</a>. &nbsp;Although this is not technically a <em>decrease in supply,</em> but slightly more accurately a <em>decrease in the</em> <em>rate of increase in supply</em>, I will hereby outline the event as if it is actually a decrease in supply, for simplification purposes. &nbsp;I understand that this detracts from any contribution of this analysis, but I think it may be suitable to present a few relevant ideas.</p>\n<p>Also, let's remember that the incremental increase in adoption and popularity&nbsp;of bitcoin&nbsp;is an&nbsp;<em>increase</em> in demand.&nbsp; What I am trying to better understand is the current elasticity of demand, or the slope, in the short-run demand curve.</p>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin Demand</strong></p>\n<p>The demand for Gold is driven by speculation and fabrication. &nbsp;Consumers purchase gold for use in <a href=\"http://www.gold.org/research/gold-demand-trends-explained\">industry, jewelry, central banking, technology and investment</a>. &nbsp;In an extreme case, if Jay-Z and Kim Kardashian simultaneously decry that platinum is superior to gold as a wearable status symbol&nbsp;while platinum distributors convince the public that gold is no longer suitable for engagement bands, the demand for gold will decrease accordingly. &nbsp;One of its primary use cases would be undermined. &nbsp;These proportions are relatively understood by analysts and so an adequate adjustment in price would be expected according to changes in expectations as trends emerge, according to the perfect market hypothesis.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;Bitcoin experiences a similar market in that it has some <a href=\"http://bitcoinintro.com/bitcoin-overview/use-cases/\">well known use cases</a>. However, altercations in the structure of the demand side is effectively unobservable. &nbsp;The nature of BTC as a cryptocurrency &nbsp;makes it difficult to know what portion of demand is supported by actual use cases and what is merely speculative. &nbsp;This unknown element contributes to price volatility as the perfect market hypothesis is pretty much out of the question. &nbsp;Therefore, analysts who focus on the supply side are left to wonder about demand. &nbsp;I will propose a few possible scenarios of the BTC demand structure and then hypothesize how each would be affected by a declining rate of an increase in supply, as determined by the subsequent halving of the miner reward.</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 1: Inelastic Demand</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;Commodities with an inelastic demand are genuinely those which are <em>needed</em> by consumers and where there are limited substitutes. &nbsp;This means that a huge increase in price would not cause a huge decrease in the quantity demanded. &nbsp;Conversely, a large downward shift in price would not trigger a massive buying spree.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;There are reasons to believe that this may be true. &nbsp;For one, I will mention that BTC does many things better than other currencies and commodities (which the intended audience of this blog would happily list at length). &nbsp;The primary transactional use cases are those that are <a href=\"http://www.coindesk.com/europol-bitcoins-popularity-growing-in-illicit-online-markets/\">illicit where users require</a> a high degree of discretion. &nbsp;These consumers will likely use BTC for their purposes even at high prices as the system has been stress tested to be suitable for their needs&nbsp;more than other cryptos. &nbsp;Also, it was not too long ago when the price for BTC was half of its current value at $650, and the system <a href=\"http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-daily-transactions/\">did not see a huge uptick in quantity of transactions</a> at these price levels. In fact the relationship is positively correlated and not negative. &nbsp;&nbsp;It could also be argued that speculators regard BTC as a valuable holding asset and due to its depreciating nature, would still be inclined to purchase it even at elevated prices (<a href=\"https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1p2o9g/to_the_moon/\">to the moooooon</a>!!). &nbsp;If indeed the market for BTC is inelastic, than the <em>halvening</em> may have the following effect:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/59208c4535.jpg\" width=\"320\" height=\"280\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>In the short-run, the decrease in the rate of new BTC supply will shift the supply curve from S1 to S2. &nbsp;The implied affect would be a large increase in price ($1 to $2) while the quantity demanded would decline relatively less (Q1 to Q2).</p>\n<p>&nbsp;However, there is evidence to suggest that the BTC market is not inelastic, but rather, elastic.</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 2: Elastic Demand</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;One of the major factors which are characteristics of an elastic demand curve is the quantity and quality of substitutes. &nbsp;Although there are many superior qualities of BTC compared to its substitutes, these benefits have yet to be completely actualized. &nbsp;There are over 550 competing crypotcurrencies, most are garbage but others are gaining in esteem. &nbsp;PayPal, credit cards, Western Union, and other payment and transfer services have an infrastructure in place which makes them exponentially more viable in the internet space currently. &nbsp;With the addition of cash, these economic technologies are more reasonably versatile in the brick-n-mortar world as well. &nbsp;Gold, and other precious metals, are readily available with mature markets and have a longer historical capacity as a store of value. &nbsp;Also, the extent to which the illicit demand exists may help to steepen the demand curve, but potentially only to a modest degree.&nbsp; Remittances, not likely a big demand-curve-steepener either.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;If indeed the demand curve for BTC is elastic than the <em>halvening</em> may have the following impact:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/5927c82f5a.jpg\" width=\"320\" height=\"286\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;If this is the case than the decline in the rate of new BTC supply will have a relatively small impact on its price ($1 to $2).</p>\n<p><strong>Scenario 3: Price Drives Speculation, then a fall</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;Let’s assume for this scenario that the demand for BTC is neither elastic nor inelastic. &nbsp;Undoubtedly, the price of BTC draws headlines: when it moves, <a href=\"http://www.pymnts.com/news/bitcoin-tracker/2016/bitcoin-price-surge-trends/\">journalists write about it</a>. &nbsp;The <em>halvening</em> has experienced a high volume of comments and it will likely continue into, and after, the event itself. &nbsp;This publicity could draw the public’s attention to the scarcity aspect of BTC to such a degree that the market experiences a large influx of consumers/speculators. &nbsp;This scenario may look something like this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/592c84bffe.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"350\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;The <em>halvening</em> takes place and moves the S-curve from S1 to S2. &nbsp;This will increase the price from $1 to $2.</p>\n<p>· &nbsp;The publicity of the event brings many to see BTC’s scarcity element and in a herd mentality, shift the demand curve from D1 to D2. &nbsp;This increase in demand has an upward pressure on the price moving it from $2 to $3.</p>\n<p>· &nbsp;At the higher price, BTC hoarders (hodlers) may be enticed to enter the market as sellers, shifting the S-curve from S2 to S3, resulting in a downward pressure on price from $3 to $4.</p>\n<p>Evidence for this behavior has been seen during 2013 (even though <a href=\"https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4hx3q9/according_to_the_mtgox_leaks_from_early_2014_our/\">“Satoshi” bought some BTC at $1,000+</a>) as well as the drops of recent months at various peaks. &nbsp;Sorry Veblen…</p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>\n<p>&nbsp;It should be noted that none of these scenarios are likely true and that my only intention for posting this is to encourage some further critical analysis to the effect of the <em>halvening</em> as it pertains to demand. &nbsp;Is the demand curve elastic? Inelastic? Curvilinear? Parabolic? &nbsp;What are the characteristics of the demand components? <br>\nThe US Federal Reserve has dramatically <a href=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1\">increased the money supply since 2008</a>&nbsp;and has not triggered a massive devaluation of&nbsp;the&nbsp;US Dollar, as inflationists&nbsp;had predicted.&nbsp; This is partly due to commodity price declines, but also because the demand for US denominated debt and assets, coming largely from China, has increased since the 2008 crisis because these are viewed as safer instruments to store value.&nbsp; Demand matters.<br>\nIt will be interesting to see what happens to the price of substitutes in the following months after the <em>halvening</em>. &nbsp;Gary North, please don’t reply, thanks…</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://i.imgsafe.org/59378dcbd7.png\" width=\"638\" height=\"85\"/></p>\n</html>",
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