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      "permlink": "steemitboard-notify-madmonkey-20200205t141150000z",
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      "body": "Congratulations @madmonkey! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@madmonkey/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@madmonkey) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=madmonkey)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-ranking-update-a-better-rich-list-comparator\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfRVpHQhLDhnjDtqck8GPv9NPvNKPfMsDaAFDE1D9Er2Z/header_ranking.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-ranking-update-a-better-rich-list-comparator\">SteemitBoard Ranking update - A better rich list comparator</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "Congratulations @madmonkey! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@madmonkey/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_[Click here to view your Board](https://steemitboard.com/@madmonkey)_</sub>\n\n\n> Support [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)! **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "title": "Why is China supportive of the Korean Process?",
      "body": "Why is China easing North Korea’s (“NK”) negotiation path with the US?\n\nOption A: Altruism — they think it will do good for the world.\n\nOption B: Selfish reasons — it will be good for them.\n\n…\n\nStating the obvious would be to say B — but how?\n\nBecause China hopes that the US commitment to the Korean Peninsula will wane over time if NK and South Korea (“SK”) de-escalate or better.\n\nWith Korean commitment receding, China will reduce potential direct military threat should there be a conflict involving the US.\n\n…\n\nAs for the other actors — normalization benefits both NK and SK. While SK will want to have the US military backing, it would prefer to have it alongside the Korean question resolved.\n\nHence, this is the big threat China sees — NK and SK make peace while the united Korea has US troops stationed and is US protected. An even bigger launchpad risk for China.\n\nSo China will support a gradual normalization where NK will demand US troop withdrawal at some point for some stage of the negotiation.\n\nIt is a dangerous game for China as all actors are aware of each others’ intent without publicly revealing it. Perhaps the sheer direct contact opportunity NK is getting with the US and SK will make the outcome more unpredicatable for China.",
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      "author": "madmonkey",
      "permlink": "after-the-nuclear-deal-saudi-israeli-position-vs-iran",
      "title": "After the Nuclear Deal: Saudi - Israeli position vs Iran",
      "body": "In the Middle East, the Iran vs Saudis is an unresolved rivalry that flares occasionally. Saudi Arabia views Iran as an existential threat for the Kingdom and there is merit in that assessment if one considers the Kingdom structured as it is now. Saudis historically looked for allies to engage Iran. Before losing the Western support, Iraq under Saddam’s war was a part of this pawn engagement.\n\nIsrael on the other hand does not have a problem with Iran per se but with the mullah regime in particular. As such, Israel would like Iran to be a balancer in the region but preferably following a regime change. This position initially is similar to Saudis but would differ in the derivative where the Saudis would seek ultimate reduction in the power of the Iranian state regardless of whoever is in power. Israel on its own part is right in perceived risk both due to the increasing encroachment of Iran through its increased influence in Israel’s neighbors and due to missile risks.\n\nIran is aware of Saudi & Israeli intentions and is trying to move the conflict away from home turf to the rivals’ immediate surroundings such as Yemen and Syria. Iran’s regime rightly feels threatened by this regional setup and understandably responds in covert operations, militia build up and proliferation of region through economic and political influence. Therefore, Iran is probably in the thick of a lot of activity but not the nuclear sort. In a stylized scenario, Iran would have a regime change, befriend Israel, mute the US and bandwagon with EU. Since this is not a storybook, the first condition does not materialize which makes the other precedents quite hard. Yet again as with the others, let’s credit that Iran has legitimate threat concerns as well.\n\nEnter the US, which historically seemed to understand these dynamics and acted as a balancer at times, now siding actively with the Saudi-Israeli position. The economics of this move would undoubtedly have an effect on Iran but that’s not unprecedented. What is more risky is the potential of a physical confrontation, intervention, bombing or outright war. Some of this would happen because there are many trigger potentials and the Syrian theater for all to prove. Which, when and with what intensity is hard to ascertain now.\n\nThere is one missing physical aspect of the Saudi-Israeli angle — ideally, there has to be another Saddam that would provide ground forces to really hit Iran hard. Without such power, why are they escalating the engagement? Because the escalation will not have the desired effect in Iran, this seems inadequate. I think that this point is well known to all actors involved and the intention might not be to go for short order regime change in Iran. The intention is probably to relieve pressure on Saudis as they go on with their reform and consolidation program and to create enough of a buffer for Israel from Iranian influence. Regime change or not is not the immediate goal and as such ground troop engagement is not a factor. However, with so many players on the ground with both competing and overlapping interests, actual dynamics on the ground is hard to fathom. What is clear is that the risk level in the Middle East has notched up with the US pulling out of the nuclear deal.\n\nMay 2018",
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      "permlink": "bitcoin-price-and-network-activity-disconnect",
      "title": "Bitcoin Price and Network Activity Disconnect",
      "body": "Even as the tecnhicals on a daily basis show a bottom forming and most gut feelings signalling the same, I have a contrarian gut feeling of equal strength riding side by side with the positive one.\n\nI've talked about this in this video recording:\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3fNb2BJt7g&t=35s\n\nAs shown in the chart below, BTC usage is at par with prices far lower than today's. It seems that while the asset is not used enough in real life, as the other cryptocurrencies are not as well, there is a growing buy-and-hold investor base here.\n\nTo that end, if this investor base remains resilient than the price could go up significantly higher albeit with a major bull trap risk. However as nobody expects it, all of a sudden if this self fulfilling investor demand is dented and the price slips enough, then at least March low will be tested with a risk on the downside.\n\nSo I am divdided but not comfortable :)\n\n![estimated-transaction-volume.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTR9eLrnVT9E9qBdAnQNCeZobh1afoVu7StYBYJGjmmJ3/estimated-transaction-volume.png)",
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      "body": "Even as the tecnhicals on a daily basis show a bottom forming and most gut feelings signalling the same as you mentioned in the video; I have a contrarian gut feeling of equal strength riding side by side with the positive one.\n\nAs shown in the chart below, BTC usage is at par with prices far lower than today's. It seems that while the asset is not used enough in real life, as the other cryptocurrencies are not as well, there is a growing buy-and-hold investor base here.\n\nTo that end, if this investor base remains resilient than the price could go up significantly higher albeit with a major bull trap risk. However as nobody expects it, all of a sudden if this self fulfilling investor demand is dented and the price slips enough, then at least March low will be tested with a risk on the downside.\n\nSo I am divdided but not comfortable :)\n\n![estimated-transaction-volume.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTR9eLrnVT9E9qBdAnQNCeZobh1afoVu7StYBYJGjmmJ3/estimated-transaction-volume.png)",
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      "body": "In retrospect: \nOther than Gold the call is ok. As for Gold, perhaps the risk perception trade is stronger than it seems. If so, Gold will break 1377. To watch..",
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      "body": "What would be the market reaction?\n\nGuessing Game:\n1. Gold trades down around 2% sometime, settles around 1% down.\n2. US equities up less than 1%. Similar moves in developed markets.\n3. Bond yields and the USD mostly unchanged.\n4. EM currencies slightly to somewhat weaker around the ME region and unchanged elsewhere.\n5. EM equity markets in the ME region will have a variance of risers and fallers while other EM markets a bit better.\n6. No crypto effect.\n\n1 day guessing game..",
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      "body": "Short term aim of achieving nothing was reached. Nonetheless medium term optionality has increased for the striking coaliton.",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Congratulations @madmonkey! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/votes.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@madmonkey) Award for the number of upvotes\n\nClick on any badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.\nFor more information about SteemitBoard, click [here](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)\n\nIf you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word `STOP`\n\n> Upvote this notification to help all Steemit users. Learn why [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "permlink": "re-madmonkey-5-questions-1-fact-and-0-answers-on-the-btc-network-20180414t145455079z",
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      "body": "Here are my preliminary answers to the questions:\n\nCumulatively — there is a disconnect between BTC price and network activitiy.\n\nThis disconnect is even more apparent in other coins.\n\nHowever, this disconnect might be partly caused by (i) individiual buy and hold investors, (ii) institutional buy and hold investors, (iii) some knock down effect from cloud mining profit squeeze and (iv) after effects of price falls (some people leaving the market, some paying less attention, some expecting further falls).\n\nSo if a growing percentage of BTC holders are holding on for store of value reasons rather than usage aims, then the disconnect may be the new normal.\n\nAgain — months later, we’ll know better. My own hunch is that the disconnect is real but might not be that price detrimental.\n\nAnyhow, I reserve the right to contradict myself later.",
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      "parent_permlink": "syria",
      "author": "madmonkey",
      "permlink": "tentative-calm-after-the-syrian-strikes",
      "title": "Tentative Calm after the Syrian Strikes",
      "body": "https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/985130802668294144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-middle-east-43767156&tfw_creator=BBCWorld&tfw_site=BBCWorld\n\nWith the “Mission Accomplished” announcement from Trump, let’s look at the situation in Syria briefly.\n\nUS signalled that it has unilateral power that it can share with allies at will, exercised that power with more restrained than words spoken before and achieved little and lost little.\n\nUK and France reminded all that they matter in the global geopolitics and they’ve neither gained or lost from this move.\n\nSyrian regime has control of Douma, suffered some missile hits, other than the humanitarian disaster, they will be content with the result.\n\nRussia will complain but given the scope of the targets will not take any action that would alter the status quo. It is possible that the Russians will perceive unwanted escalation risk in the future and will not carry that time forward just now.\n\nNot to mention that humanity somewhat loses..\n\nSo the short term balance will be restored but there will be a lingering sense of escalation risk that could be trigged by actions by these and other interested parties. As such we stand on a short term reduced risk level compared to days ago and a medium term increased risk level compared to weeks ago.\n\nAll this assuming that there are no further strikes or major countermoves..\n\nhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43767156",
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      "title": "The Stopping Train by Gavin Bryars and Blake Morrison",
      "body": "---\n\nI was surprised, impressed and inspired by the music of Gavin Bryars right after I casually listened to A Man in a Room Gambling through the beloved Spotify suggestion algo.\n\nIt took a while for me to go through some of the albums but it was the latest one, The Stopping Train which is a collaboration with the poet Blake Morrison who reads his poem in person, that got me. Links below do a better justice in explaining the work than I would do. If you enjoy minimalist avantgarde modern music and/or poetry, I’d suggest to check it out on Open Spotify. I’ve also added links to some other works by Bryars.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmT2E3eTxG5qLJmSNfhk6YM6aGmftm5CM2FeKEpKCGEUuW/image.png)\n\nhttps://open.spotify.com/album/7x4VixU170tw109vbBEvrv?si=suL3HKPcQse2wS0lyN1Ung\n\n‘The Stopping Train’ was written by two of the Yorkshire’s most renowned artists, composer Gavin Bryars and poet Blake Morrison for the 2016 Yorkshire Festival, designed initially to be experienced on the train journey from Goole (Bryars’ birthplace) to Hull (or vice versa). \n\nComposed as a series of movements to be heard as the stopping train leaves each station between Goole and Hull and on its return journey, it is scored for viola, cello, bass, electric guitar and spoken voice. Morrison’s poetry refers to the personal history of Bryars in the area as well as to topographical and historical material. Blake Morrison reads his own lyrics while Gavin Bryars plays double bass together with members of his Gavin Bryars Ensemble.\n\nhttps://www.propermusic.com/product-details/Gavin-Bryars-and-Blake-Morrison-The-Stopping-Train-251773\nGoole-Hull stopping train | Gavin Bryars\n\nhttp://www.gavinbryars.com/calendar/goole-hull-stopping-train\n\n\n---\n\nMore by Gavin Bryars:\n\n\nMercy and Grand — The Music of Tom Waits and Kathleen Brennan\nhttps://open.spotify.com/album/5auuVUc7SAU1rflsQrrXW2?si=yYlfQCGAQpWHUGnwbo3lzQ\n\n\nHommages\nhttps://open.spotify.com/album/2zZ732qsXf9sShIuzW3ukG?si=x2SRMRBdRAGsTxZ_CNQpwg\n\n\nA Man in a Room, Gambling\nhttps://open.spotify.com/album/2nhTvC8rGKtClmCIlCBgvX?si=Z0ESZoSgRR2lwGyhwW_CzQ\n\n\nThe Last Days / String Quartets Nos. 1 & 2\nhttps://open.spotify.com/album/2pqQNoAiza6wwqTjvz1JMb?si=4rLx-udpSd68Xrybt73Fpw",
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      "title": "5 Questions, 1 Fact & 0 Answers on the BTC Network",
      "body": "---\n\nIn this article, I will state a fact and ask some questions. They will be very brief and I will not provide answers myself herein. You are encouraged to provide your answers. I will do so on a later date as well.\n\nAll data is from blockchain.info. Each chart covers 2 years, smoothed by 7 day average and depicted on a linear scale. First date is April 13, 2016 and the final date is April 11, 2018.\n\n---\n\nFact : \n2 years ago Bitcoin market capitalization (network value) was USD 6.5 billion. There has been a near 16x increase.\n\n![market-cap.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmbXnaEJPLohgQMsjZePP2rNUrqJWKBSgWQeAY5VQZ1smL/market-cap.png)\n\n---\n\nQuestion 1: \nWhy are the confirmed transactions 10% lower than 2 years ago and at a 2 year low? (while the market cap is up by 16x)\n\n![n-transactions.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXzFBr9nWWMy4H77oawq8BCd3ENP6wTLsCuqQhNGLo3td/n-transactions.png)\n\n---\n\nQuestion 2:\nWhy are the average number of transactions per block 20% below 2 years ago and at a 2 year low? (while the market cap is up by 16x)\n\n![n-transactions-per-block.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNUGjagfR3KPZkXCuQfuu8dpTGCUrsuyAgC22Hq5WP6tv/n-transactions-per-block.png)\n\n---\n\nQuestion 3:\nWhy is the average block size at its lowest in 2 years? (while the market cap is up by 16x)\n\n![avg-block-size.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZi7ktbu6eosFVHpYCXLose8M27gSypweusx3ffqCpDk2/avg-block-size.png)\n\n---\n\nQuestion 4:\nWhy are the number of unique addresses used unchanged from 2 years ago? (while the market cap is up by 16x)\n\n![n-unique-addresses.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmb6BNvLvQ8MQWQUbxt7WnNebTsr8niMS4PN28zPG3yKGV/n-unique-addresses.png)\n\n---\n\nQuestion 5:\nWhy are the estimated USD transaction value per day is up only 6x? (while the market cap is up by 16x)\n\n![estimated-transaction-volume-usd.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXYE1NkqzLBTvdB2GgJG2dLAtiK8RNMCUMW9ZYwZDu8rc/estimated-transaction-volume-usd.png)\n\n---\n\nSo while the price jumps over 15% in a day after a long slide from December 2017, it might be prudent to consider the relationship between price and network activity.\n\nVikram Arun has an insightful article on NVT and NVTG here: https://medium.com/ledgercapital/using-nvt-and-nvtg-in-practice-to-value-the-most-popular-cryptocurrencies-a66c6abc0a83\n\nCoinmetrics NTV charting tool can be accessed here: https://coinmetrics.io/nvt/#assets=btc_log=false_roll=14_zoom=1453547284897.959,1523404800000\n\nBlockchain.info’s charts are at: https://blockchain.info/charts\n\nI’ve posed the questions, your answers are more than welcome and we’ll revisit this post in around 6 months to review the stats and provide some insight. Meanwhile I might post answers along the way as well..",
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      "body": "In reply to myself, what are the problems with the Gold cost analogy?\n\nA. Cost can be manufactured arbitarily without any value attached to the final product.\n\nImagine yourself carrying a rock from point A to point B in a car. There is capital expenditure in the car, maintanance costs in the fuel and lobor costs in your involvement.\n\nWould all that make the rock have a price or go up in price? \n\nSo the value attributed to Bitcoin is different from the cost argument. If that value attribution is made then the cost could be a metric to set a price. However there is no intrinsic reason for that value attribution.\n\nMoreover, the same argument can be made for gold.\n\nB. Gold and Bitcoin might not be similar.\n\nInterestingly for Bitcoin holders, there are similarities more apparent than the holders of Gold. I think the first point is strong and this contention point is weak. Yet - Gold and Bitcoin correlation has been very weak historically.\n\nC. All the calculations are absurd because production costs for each site is not known.\n\nThis makes sense to argue on a country or site specific costs but does not weaken the overall argument. It qualifies the argument to be more refined which indeed is necessary.\n\n..\n\nAnd obviously there could be other counter-arguments as well. Yet I believe the analogy is interesting without trying to be explanatory in a wholistic sense.",
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      "body": "![Abstract5 v2.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeDXTYDV85E4dX5jbcFqWLHS7vM2KCYERQ7UGmf6ACrEn/Abstract5%20v2.jpg)\n\nShot on Pentax, sometime around 1990, negative converted to digital",
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      "body": "I think that while its upside might be limited to other crypto currencies, Bitcoin has a fundamental upside potential due to its cost of mining. I've tried to compare the AISCs for Bitcoin and Gold in the following article.\n\nhttps://steemit.com/bitcoin/@madmonkey/gold-and-btc-cost-analysis-bitcoin-in-gold-terms-would-be-substantially-higher-in-price-than-today-s-usd-7-000",
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      "author": "madmonkey",
      "permlink": "gold-and-btc-cost-analysis-bitcoin-in-gold-terms-would-be-substantially-higher-in-price-than-today-s-usd-7-000",
      "title": "Gold and BTC Cost Analysis: Bitcoin in Gold terms would be substantially higher in price than today's USD 7,000.",
      "body": "In this article, we will compare Gold and Bitcoin in terms of production costs and try to come up to some comparative conclusion.\n\n\nGOLD\nGold AISC refers to all-in sustaining costs for gold. As per World Gold Council, this includes every cost item for producing gold except for future non-sustaining costs such as new expolaration.\n\nhttps://www.gold.org/news-and-events/press-releases/world-gold-council-guidance-note-non-gaap-metrics-all-sustaining\n\nAs it stands AISC is a good measure of a fully reflective cash cost base for gold. Since 2013, this figure has gone down 15%-ish to around USD 850. Compare this to a cost base in a company that encompasses capital expenditures and capitalized expenses on top of operating costs.\n\nSo at USD 1330 market price, there is a USD 480 cash profit margin on gold (minus exchange fees and such) for the miners. Whether this is a great margin or an unsustainably high figure time will show. In the interim the relative value of the Dollar and risk perception seems to play a more prominent role. \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRT5xdXDknVzEprCWkyCxMSejKKqnx2pNLE7w1Gf1h7jv/image.png)\n\n..\n\nBITCOIN\nNow let's look at it from the point of Bitcoin..\n\nFirst of all Bitcoin has digital scarcity with a maximum cap. In this regard, it can be compared to Gold. Over time, it's supply grows a lot less than Gold and that growth path is predictable. Both Bitcoin and Gold have production costs, the latter as described above and Bitcoin due to its Proof of Work algorithm that links physical expenses such as equipment and electricity in addition to labor and administrative costs.\n\nHere's a table for electricity costs:\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQNiF1aBtrZ6PxbBzJFH5W7vseYvRwwMDpR8d3QrGCs2v/image.png)\n\nNow we can develop step by step the cost basis for Bitcoin..\n\nA. Equipment\n\nAmazon lists Antminer S9 for USD 1,700. With shipping, installation and additional hardware  costs, we can assume at least USD 2,000 to have this set up.\n\nhttps://www.amazon.com/AntMiner-S9-13-0TH-0-098W-Bitcoin/dp/B01HFXQ7AG\n\nWith this set up, one will get 13 TH (terra hashes) of power.  Given the current difficulty, this power mines 0.0283 BTC per month. With a fairly conservative estimate of network power increasing annualy by 100% from this point on, this miner will produce around 0.021 BTC per month for the first year and then closer to 0.0105 BTC the next year and halving the other year as well.\n\nSo after 3 years, this rig will produce around 0.5 BTC. If we convert the cost to 1 BTC, then it would be USD 4,000 equipment costs and the equipment is pretty much obsolete with an assumption of no maintenance costs for these 3 years on any equipment. Also we will assign 0 scrap value for the equipment after this usage period.\n\nhttps://alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator\n\nB. Electricity\n\nHuge variation from place to place but if we take the US as a reference, we can use USD 4,800 per 1 BTC which is actually understated because producing the same BTC over the horizon of mining would require more electicty per 0.xxx units of BTC. We shall not take this in to consideration for now.\n\nC. Labor\n\nGiven this will not be a highly labor intensive business, let's assume all labor costs including managerial costs at 1/4 of electricty cost.\n\nD. Administrative Costs\n\nThis is a broad topic from accounting, rental, legal, warehouse expenses and all. For the moment, let's assume it is same as Labor costs.\n\nE. Others\n\nA plug-in for other costs which will be assigned 0 for now.\n\n..\n\nCONCLUSION\nAdding up all the costs gives USD 9,200 AISC cost for mining Bitcoin the US. Where electicty costs are 1/2 of the US average, this can go down to USD 5,600. For this example average of these two i.e. USD 7,400 will be used.\n\nI believe that this analysis disregards organizational costs, risks and business continuity matters. To that end, an AISC comparable cost could be higher. However given significantly lower electricty costs, this will be mitigated. Yet again with network difficulty increasing as well as the total hashrate, these costs will pick up as well.\n\nSo with Gold, there is a USD 850 cost base and a price of USD 1,330.\n\nAnd with Bitcoin, there is a USD 7,400 cost base and a price of USD 7,000 as of now.\n\nEverything is not comparable in life but if these two assets are comparable to a degree then either Gold will have to decrease below USD 850 to be comparable or Bitcoin will have to increase to USD 11,500. Alternatively Gold can come down somewhat and Bitcoin can go up less than this.\n\nProbably none will happen in the next couple of days but it is clear that Bitcoin does not benefit from the safety value attached to Gold at the moment. However the production costs and the investment community will pick on these details, elaborate on them and I would not be surprised for these factors to lead to reasonably higher prices in the not too distant future provided that the BTC network continues to function and innovate.",
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}