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      "body": "I think every trader has heard at least once that the best trading strategy is to follow smart money. Some traders think that it is practically impossible to separate smart money from all money, but most think opposite. There are many attempts to find smart money actions or strategies in price moves or in additional information and actually sometimes it's not so difficult (IMHO of course), because they are very logical and realistic.\n\nRight now we can count an approximate probability of Ethereum hard fork success by smart money opinion.\nSo let's start. Some prerequisites.\n\nInitially The DAO split was assumed to return proportional value of ETH (~1ETH per 100 DAO). And initially the price of DAOETH pair was slightly less that 0.01 (0.0097) as some some investors didn't want to wait for split and wanted to return their ETH immediately accepting a small loss.\n\nAfter The DAO attack, the ETH sum decreased significantly and the price stopped at ~0.007 after a huge drop. That price was quite logical, because 70% is the approximate number of ETH left comparing to the initial sum.\n\nRight now the price is about 0.0096.\n____________\nLets assume that the probability of hard fork failure is already accounted in the price (actually it is)\nThen:\nprice = P(f)*price(f) + (1 -P(f))*price(s)\nwhere:\nP(f) - probability of failure\nprice(f) - price of The DAO in case of failure. I think it is gonna be equal to the price after The DAO attack (0.007)\nprice(s) - price of The DAO in case of total hard fork success. It's gonna be ~0.0102-0.0103 if I counted correctly. Actually it should be less, because of investors that want their ETH immediately, but let's count the most pessimistic case.\n\nThen:\nP(f) = (price(s) - price)/(price(s) - price(f))\nP(f)=(0.0103 - 0.0096)/(0.0103 - 0.007) = 21%\n\nThus the probability of total success of Ethereum hard fork is at least 79% as smart money think\nAgain, sorry for my English and thank you so much for reading this post to the end.\nGood luck and profits!\n\n#ethereum #hardfork #thedao #smartmoney #trading",
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      "body": "By the way happy halvening!\n\nAnd that's the source  of possible danger. The reason is quite simple. \nAs we know the supply of coins that miners can get per block was reduced by 50%. But their expenses for electricity and hardware will remain the same, so their profits will drop. That can lead to significant drop of network hashrate.\nIn case of significant hashrate drop blocks will be solved much slower and the interval to the next difficulty recalculation will grow. It's about 2 weeks in average, but the more hashing power will drop, the later recalculation will happen. In the worst case it will happen never again.\nThis can be avoided by huge price increase (to over $1200 per BTC) right now, but I think it will hardly happen.\nBut actually that's not a big problem by itself.\n\nLet's have a look at the Bitcoin blockchain from another side.\nblockchain.info provide beautiful charts that show various statistical information. I like these charts and from time to time i like to inspect them. The chart that is interesting for us at the moment is here: https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size\n\nAs you can see, average block size is not far from 0.8MB in average during this year, that's 80% of maximum capacity. Peak values are about 95%. Actually these numbers are slowly less than they should be because of cheaty blocks with only 1 transaction. I think the true peak values are about 96-98%. So we need about 25% increase of transactions number to get transactions demand higher than actual network possible supply.\nThat's not a big problem by itself as well, because there is 25% capacity. Actually, less than 25%, because of cheaty blocks.\n\nNow let's imagine what can happen when we combine these two problems.\nSignificant hashing power drop will slow down the blockchain speed. Transactions speed will remain the same, so in case of 50% or more decrease transactions demand will be more than supply by more than 20%.\nThe very first result will be enormous fees and stuck transactions with normal fees. If the speed remains the same, problems with nodes will be possible. That can cause bitcoin price drop.\nBitcoin price drop makes spiral. At every new loop new miners are thrown away by reducing profitability.\nSpiral means death (or something near) for bitcoin once appeared. At some moment panic sell will start making the mining unprofitable and the network unstable.\n\nFirst of all sorry for my english. I'm not a native speaker and this post is the first serious one written in English.\nAnd sorry if this post is about something trivial and known by everyone.\n\nAnyway I hope the post is somehow useful and this scenario will never happen. \nGood luck to everyone! And thank you so much for reading this post to the end )",
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