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      "title": "数据告诉你，比特币顶部在哪里？如何制定相应策略？",
      "body": "一、比特币泡沫大概处于什么阶段？\n\n. 囤比特币ahr999指数\n\n![ahr999指数.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZDePEshyseoqm2KjmhdhpHUCkVq4bEYxaRVWodfncYci/ahr999%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B0.png)\n\n简介：这是比特币全周期的价格和ahr999指数图。指数用起来很简单，低于红线的部分指抄底线，而低于绿线的部分是定投线，可以看到最近的两个低于红线的位置，一个出现在2018年年末，是那轮熊市的大底。第二个就是最近的312。\n\n分析：ahr999在小于1.2的时候比较适合买入或者是定投，截至2021/3/10，ahr999指数为9.78395，显然是不适合继续定投或者买入，但是我们可以看到，2017年牛市ahr999指数曾经达到过30以上，那么在之前的几轮牛市，ahr999指数都达到70以上。当然了，随着比特币的体量越来越大，那么投资比特币的投资者趋于理性，可能泡沫指数的高点会逐渐下降，但是如果说这轮牛市hr999指数最高只能达到9-10的话,可能性比较小一点。\n\n. 彩虹图(chart: bitcoin Rainbow Price chart)\n\n![彩虹图.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYQjwooikz9p3jHwNLtSb2ZgY5AYp3cpuYgayuHrZRuoV/%E5%BD%A9%E8%99%B9%E5%9B%BE.png)\n\n简介：模型将价格和操作的分级做得更加细致，而且根据图形也可以对未来的价格做一些预测，比ahr999指数的滞后性指标应用范围更广，实际上，过往用来衡量比特币的价格是一个非常好的chart。\n\n分析：它把比特币的价格分为很多个合理区间，比如第一个区间--蓝色Rainbow，蓝色的这一条Basically a fire Sale，意思就是当前的比特币价格处于一个绝对的低估。下一个条幅 buy最上面是一个泡沫可以达到的极值，大家可以看出来，根据 Chart的预测，在2021年的年底，比特币的价格最高可以达到18万美金。当然了，这里他说的是泡沫可以达到的最大极值。\n\n. Stock to flow模型\n\n![stock_to_flow.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQPe1jQunZGFw8KfT9YEVtUZoPmUFkBRNVJvK1FBGMYEx/stock_to_flow.png)\n\n简介：Stock to flow这个模型主要是用来预测黄金的价格，那么大家知道比特币跟黄金是有一定的相似的属性，所以stock to flow模型也经常被很多人用来预测比特币的价格，这个模型的逻辑主要是根据比特币现在的产出和需求来预测价格的。\n\n分析：大家可以看到上一轮牛市，这个模型预测的比特币的合理价格是在五六千左右，而最后比特币在牛市狂热的氛围下，曾经达到2万左右，也就是三四倍于预测的价格。在熊市中又跌到了3000多，也就是回到了模型所预测的价格之下。那么根据以往的经验，比特币的价格会在stock to Flow模型预测的上下区间内波动，在这轮牛市Stock to flow的模型已经预测到了10万美金，所以如果说stock to flow模型依然有效的话，那么比特币的价格将会在10万美元上下波动。\n\n. Total Market Capitalization Dominance\n\n![total_market_capitalizion_1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP56YNT1RpQUJDRf5EwcDmrUCfg8Gst4WLhcU3q7gHSV6/total_market_capitalizion_1.png)\n\n![total_market_capitalizion_2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTnFagjXvUfZiNBD8oVMMuyPso5ZvbWcQPQ2vbDGj7AMx/total_market_capitalizion_2.png)\n\n\n简介：它衡量比特币占整个加密货币市值的比例。\n\n分析：可以看到在2017年之前，比特币占整个加密货币市值的比例一般都在95%以上，而在2017年之后，比特币出现一个断崖式的下跌，主要是由于以太坊的崛起，以及伴随着以太坊的崛起的很多新币，而比特币的市值一度最低点大概到了37%左右。2018年1月份，基本上是上轮牛市的一个顶点，可以观察出来一般加密货币的牛市，第一阶段都是比特币一枝独秀，比特币的价格一般会达到历史的新高。但是2017年之后比特币占总的加密货币市场的比例最高点就是在72%左右，那么当前比特币的总占比达到了60%左右，而且有一点点下降趋势，下一波的机会应该是依然在一些主流的加密货币上。\n\n二、制定逃顶策略\n以上分析可以说，比特币这轮牛市应该会到5万-10万美元，那10万美元究竟是不是这轮的顶部？很多时候当很多人的思考一致的时候这个剧本往往不会往那个方向走。\n\n.比特币接下来会怎么走\n\n第一个可能--比特币根本到不了10万美元\n可能比特币经过下一轮涨幅会到七八万美元左右就是这轮牛市的顶部，目前感觉可能性是比较小的，因为很多机构比如说tesla，它们的购买成本大概都是在三四万美元左右，如果说只往上涨不到一倍可能比较小，但是这种情况大家也一定要有所准备。\n\n第二种可能—比特币可能涨到七八万之后，会有一个大的调整，然后就开始第二轮的上涨，在第二轮的上涨过程中，比特币到达了10万美元左右之后，引发市场的一个fear of missingout的情绪，瞬间从10万美元涨到20万美元。\n其实2017年就是这么的走法，比特币在到达1万之后，就到达了一个沸点，然后大概是三天之内，就从1万美元涨到了2万美元，这种走法的可能性是比较大的，因为从各种模型来看，比特币这一轮顶部到15万和20万的可能性是比较大的，而且如果说比特币在这轮的顶部能触及到20万美元，那么在下一轮的底部可能就是4万美元，走法其实是非常符合2017年的。\n\n第三种比较激进，2022年6月份左右结束牛市，有可能触及50万美元左右\n首先分析一下这轮牛市会持续多长时间，如果说这轮牛市和2017年是一样的话，这轮牛市可能会在2021年底结束，但是因为比特币现在的体量越来越大，那么体量越大它的波动率会越小，波动率越小的话，它的涨幅可能没有那么大。但是这轮牛市走的时间可能会比较长，所以说根据推演，比特币的这轮牛市不可能到明年6月才结束。暂定按两个时间点来推演，一个是今年年底结束，一个是明年6月结束，那么根据各个模型的一个比较极值的条件来推演出来。\n\n.可以参考策略\n\n第二条路概率大一点，比特币可能先到七八万美元，然后之后会有一轮大的调整，然后就直接奔着10万美元过去，之后就是fear of missing out，然后可能从10万直接涨到15万或者是20万。可以在七八万左右进行第一轮减仓之后，在10万-15万美元左右进行第二轮的减仓，当然了具体减多少根据大家的一个风险偏好。\n\n可以分享如何应对以上三种情况？以上均为个人想法，不构成投资建议！！！",
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