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      "body": "SP500成立于1926年，1957年纳入500只股票。\n\n使用SP500的月度CAPE数据（Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10）计算（1871年起），得出美股CAPE的波动率为14.14%，大幅小于A股全指的情绪波动31.0%，而SP500本身的波动为：14.00%。\n\n1957年以来的数据更有参考意义，近63年，CAPE波动率12.24%，SP500本身波动12.09%。年化收益为6.96%，除去CAPE变化仅为5.94%（这里其实还有利率的影响，暂时忽略）。同时计算出，抛开CAPE外的内生增长波动为1.47%。\n\n由于月度CAPE的平均值和中位数为20.21和20.20，月度标准差为7.78。这里简单的用半标准差3.89，舍去蒙特卡洛出来的均值在半标准差[16.32, 24.09]之外的模拟样本。（模拟的数据是30年）\n\n首先使用的是类似A股的**低位逐步加仓**，高位逐步减仓的方法。在A股由于波动巨大，所以此法有效。不过，基于之前在债券上的回测效果，认知到，如果内生增长和波动之比大到一定程度，吃情绪的波动就不在有效。\n\n模拟了100个样本数据，起点是现在（2019年末，高CAPE，约90度）。发现：\n\n1、美股要靠仓位控制战胜市场果然很难，目前还几乎没有胜率超过50%的方案。（但不表示仓位控制没有意义，1、有其他选择-机会成本；2、降低波动；3、相关性）\n\n2、由于现在处于CAPE高位，基于模拟样本的假设，如果未来30年回到20左右的中轴，意味着，低CAPE比较难出现。所以一旦低于历史平均（50%或者40%的温度），就要争取满仓。\n\n3、只有温度在最高的时候，才值得稍微降仓位一点\n\n4、起步的时候（2019年末，高CAPE），似乎仓位在0-40%没什么变化，50%以上有点反复，90%以上胜率又接近了。所以下面用40%的起步举两个图示例。看起来，稍微良好的策略就是现在布局一点30%-40%仓，等美股下来后，然后迅速满仓。\n\n5、迭代次数比较少，很有可能是局部最优。\n\n再试一下**温度直接对应仓位**的简单方法。经过回测后，结论如此简洁。\n\n在上文的假设前提下，如果温度超过90%，直接空仓。只要低于90%，就满仓。胜率是60%左右。\n\n（这里可能有个假设前提是目前美股处于高位），其他情况下做择时对美股毫无作用。\n\n另一个角度看，在温度超过90%度时，仓位在5-30%是可以接受的（有66%的胜率）。超过30%的仓位，那么胜率就下降了。\n\n对普通个人来说，可能当CAPE值（同时参考PE），只要跌下来，没那么贵。配置一点，或者定投，总是可以的。\n\n下一步，进一步做**头部温度细分**，把90%的温度和95%的温度细分出来了。\n\n结果是，在95%温度以上，持有0%的仓位，90%-95%的温度，可以持有67%的仓位。这样有67%的胜率。\n\n90%和95%的温度对应的CAPE是多少呢？列在下面：\n\n![1183822-86e69f1c66c9af0d.webp](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcSujA7BB2MuXY9DwDAaJLYXh4V2rbi8adTsBJ3McXtFU/1183822-86e69f1c66c9af0d.webp)\n\n\n所以，在美股，如果CAPE低于29.91，做点定投到67%的仓位是可以接受的。高于33.53，就要卖掉。实操中，由于有其他选择机会（A股，债券等），可以更保守一点（最好温度能到80%以下）。另外，具体操作中也要看看PE，做些基于常理的推断。\n\n下面是PE对应的温度。\n\n![1183822-324d000f45bb4f8c.webp](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNvbKpFNPfco8BW6GBGTTmbB5m1iwP9aZQ5mZQQwQgBqs/1183822-324d000f45bb4f8c.webp)\n\n\n所以18年底，CAPE小于29（<90%），PE小于20(<75%) ，买一点至少是没问题的。\n\n更多仓位我希望能在（80%以下），CAPE<26.1，PE<22.5去慢慢买入。\n\n这就要到2016年2月了，3、4年前（下图红框内）\n\n![1183822-17544f4f2602abcb.webp](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZjf4CKwWQtMXFgzmhqLdrR2dv3k67AHWae6XMC5x6HTu/1183822-17544f4f2602abcb.webp)\n\n注：后来，2020年3月份疫情大跌，PE到了22.8，CAPE到了24.82。",
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      "title": "马喆估值法",
      "body": "在我们眼里，1家公司的内在价值是就是其未来10年可以为股东创造的净利润总金额。\n\n为什么是10年呢？\n\n我们是基于实体公司的实际回报提出了10年的标准。全美工商业企业几十年来平均净资产回报率一直在12%附近波动，这意味着美国公司的股东平均回收买入成本的时间是8-9年。我们清晰地看到，中国上市公司整体的净资产收益率应该在10%左右。可以这样理解，如果用1倍市净率买进沪深指数的所有公司，股东平均回收成本的时间大概在10年左右。\n\n注：个人感觉，可以通过过去10年增速，结合行业/竞争优势来推测未来10年，然后打折。另外看自由现金流，来打折。这样给出安全边际。\n\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQxKXNYXr9ugZwjr5K7PFg23Zqp2PCR2dNnbkP14gKAYj/image.png)",
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      "title": "定投的节奏",
      "body": "一个想法：\n\n如果处于中枢之下，那么可以看。多长时间它会变成下沿。\n\n比如假设现在4200，中枢在4400，毛估估算一下，一年半到下沿。\n\n那么现有资金可以按照18个月投完的节奏定投。\n\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ9NPybxFkSHphNNRr24Fmw7pfnzJQe8FqdaoGv8T9efU/image.png)",
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      "body": "Congratulations @lautsie! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@lautsie/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@lautsie) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=lautsie)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "Congratulations @lautsie! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@lautsie/birthday1.png</td><td>1 Year on Steemit</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_[Click here to view your Board](https://steemitboard.com/@lautsie)_</sub>\n\n\n> Support [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)! **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "body": "<em>I'd like to know if \nThere is a daily update \nLine for this model? \n</em>\n&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<sup>- lautsie</sup>\n\n---\n<sup><sup><em>I'm a bot. I detect haiku.</em></sup></sup>",
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      "body": "1848年，《共产党宣言》发表。“一个幽灵，共产主义的幽灵，在欧洲大陆徘徊。为了对这个幽灵进行神圣的围剿，旧欧洲的一切势力，教皇和沙皇、梅特涅和基佐、法国的激进派和德国的警察，都联合起来了。”然后是一个多世纪近乎惨烈的社会实验，最后，作为一种经济制度，共产主义彻底失败了。不过，从另一方面来看，当时“每一个毛孔都滴着血和肮脏”的资本主义因为融入了社会主义的部分成果而得到了极大改善。这就仿佛尼安德特人被我们走出非洲的智人祖先们无情的灭族了，但他们的少部分基因却留存在了我们的身体里，不断延续。\n\n这里有个很有意思的问题，等有机会再细说。如果有一家公司叫做资本烛艺，市场份额很大，但是制度千疮百孔，不得民心（一百多年前是这样的）；这时候有一家叫做共产烛艺的公司聚集了一批很有理想很有能力的精英，给出了很有创意很鼓舞人心看起来很有前途的市场竞争方式，你会给这家公司多少估值呢（两家公司的估值比例有点像下注的赔率）？\n\n2008年，全球金融危机爆发。次年，中本聪在比特币不可修改的创世区块里留下这么一句话：“2009年1月3日，财政大臣正处于实施第二轮银行紧急援助的边缘”。这正是泰晤士报当天的头版文章标题。\n\n比特币无疑是大家听说过的第一个加密货币，它充满理想主义和先贤主义的色彩。但有时让人困惑的是，即使都是比特币的拥趸，不同的人的说法还很不一样。这一点其实大刘在《三体》里早就睿智的写过了，“主”到来之前，三体组织内部产生了三个派系。一个是拯救派、一个是降临派，还有一个是幸存派。降临派对法币本性绝望，想让比特币将法币毁灭。而拯救派期待比特币拯救人类，拯救金融，拯救自己。幸存派数量只是希望现在就开始持有比特币，希望最后能在比特币的统治下幸存。太阳底下没有新鲜事，人类对于神秘和神圣的态度几千年不变。\n\n在我看来，比特币/加密货币的市值上升，其实反映着人类对其认知的变化而产生的估值模型的变化。比特币最早只是一个带有理想主义的玩物，虽有成为数字黄金的可能，但接纳度太小，估值也一直不高。但是慢慢，人类竟从这事物的本质背后发现了很多细思恐极的玩法。特别当以太坊出现的之后，人类忽然意识到通过“智能合约”能够创造这么丰富的生态系统，通过形成另一套自治，具有破坏性的金融体系后，估值就极具上升。这轮大牛市完全就是以太坊带起来的。\n\n这里面肯定有泡沫，但历史上什么激动人心的新兴事物没有泡沫呢？想想railway bubble和internet bubble。2000年互联网泡沫顶点，一个随随便便的破网站估值都能飞上天。泡沫破灭后，一地鸡毛，但是亚马逊等公司经过多年发展，目前的市值早已远远超过了当年。\n\n我觉得要理解加密货币生态：一是需要去感受历史的脉络；二是亲身去转账感受几次；三是要有点不保守的想象力。\n\n那我们先从第一代加密货币比特币及其理想主义说起吧。\n\n如果你看过中本聪的简历/痕迹，你完全能感受到他对现有金融系统的态度。比如他注册的生日是1975年4月5号，中本聪绝不会用真实的生日注册。密码学出身的他非常注意隐藏身份的技巧，比如通过变换登陆时间让人无法猜测他的居住地区，通过更换英文行文风格让人无法猜测他的文化出身。\n\n但1975年和4月5号在货币历史上意义重大，在1933年的4月5号，美国总统弗兰克林. 罗斯福签署了政府法令，规定所有美国公民持有黄金是非法的。他没收充公美国人的黄金，并以美元交换，然后让美元贬值了40%，强制推高黄金价格从$20到$35。有许多人认为这是美国政府所做所为中最违反宪法的的行为之一。那1975年呢？在1975年，美国人可以再一次合法地拥有黄金。\n\n比特币以去中心化账本的方式第一次实现了无需发行方即可证明归属的世界性“货币”，它让世界人民有可能逃离政府的“恶意”通胀收割。而core团队也非常努力的维护这个理想。比如他们甚至愿意牺牲效率一直维持1M的小区块，这使得任何一台简单的笔记本电脑即可运行全数据节点。这样，即使世界大战发生，只要有一些人愿意打开笔记本运行全节点系统，比特币系统仍然安然无恙。它运行了近十年久经考验而未被攻破。如果乱世到来，我会愿意将部分资产换成比特币--而不是以太坊。盛世时，以太坊可以支撑新的金融模式，没有问题。但乱世时，它那为了效率引入的伪去中心化，繁复的功能以及并不完美全节点系统让我不够放心，更别提大众的接纳度。所以比特币是真的数字黄金。（注：相比黄金的流通市值，比特币的市值还很小）。\n\n至于说随便克隆一套代码就能制造一个币出来的人，我想说，即使腾讯把微信代码开源送你，你也无法再造一个微信。因为它背后是一个生态系统，有矿工，交易所，用户作为制衡的三角。\n\n如果按照这种思路去建模估值，比特币就是数字黄金，它的市值取决于人民对其当做“黄金”的接纳度，这样可以按照黄金的市值打个折扣算出它的市值。随着技术发展和推广，再伴随着重大事件造成的人们对政府法币的不信任，人们觉得它作为黄金替代品/完美货币的概率会不断上升，比特币的市值也会不断上升。\n\n有一种说法是，比特币的挖矿成本是几千美元，所以他的价格应该是这么多。这个说法我不认同，它有点像马克思主义剩余价值经济学的定价方式，但是这个已经被西方主流经济学给否定了。有个经典的反例就是奔腾处理器vs赛扬，英特尔为了让赛扬的效率比奔腾更低，需要专门再增加一道工序。但这多付出的劳动却让赛扬的价值比奔腾更低。而且，比特币的挖矿效率在有的情况下是可以调整的，再而且，有些其他数字货币是不需要挖矿的，成本为零。所以这一点来解释是不合理的。当然，如果比特币的价格低于挖矿成本，矿工们在短期内是亏本的，那么整个生态会有很大动力推高其价格，这个思路有一定合理性。\n\n要解释比特币(BTC)的价格，还是要回归主流西方经济学的供需平衡理论。但是比特币的需求来自哪里呢？除了“数字黄金”这个模型下理想主义的需求，我发现比特币还有一个很强的价值基础。由于BTC的先发优势和先贤效应，又由于加密货币世界里的理想主义本质上是厌恶法币的，加密货币交易所里的资产大多数以BTC计价交易。这就意味着所有加密货币的发行者都需要用BTC去做市。我们知道货币的汇率的根基就在于这种货币能买到多少东西，那么BTC能够买到这么多，而且越来越多的加密货币（这些加密货币很多是有实际应用做价值基础的），那么它的市值会随着加密货币市场的发展而不断增加。\n\n我们再通过具体实例感受一下吧。2017年9月，中国出台禁令，关闭国内交易所。\n在最初的恐慌期过了之后，我还是看好数字资产的未来，于是我和大家一样，开始了轰轰烈烈的大航海时代，资金出海，转战海外交易所。那时候还是很忐忑的，担心钱以后还回不回得来国内。\n这时候忽然间想起《三体》里的一段话，“鱼离开了海就不再是鱼了,人离开地球就不再是人了”（注：鱼成为了两栖类）。所以，这些出了海的钱就不再是原来的钱了么？\n\n反正，我从场外收了一些比特币，然后转到Bitfinex去交易。\n在此之前，我在火币和OkCoin上交易过一段时间。我不知道交易所上的价格代表着什么，为什么美国的比特币价格和中国的比特币价格几乎一致，basically，我只是把他当做一个数字投机的游戏。\n但是，当我把BTC转往交易所地址的时候，看着上面逐渐展示一个确认，两个确认，三个确认，直到最终完成。\n\n图：Bitfinex上的转账完成图片\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZT5YbXGXg4R2fWsw1aSYfoTGzMoLMQGPXd81MyYErxVo/image.png)\n\n我忽然意识到一件事情：人类第一次在网络上有了一个无需中心化政府证明的资产凭证。this is huge.之后的一切发展都基于这个小小的基石，不可限量。\n\n稍微往前想一想的话，就可以知道，中小体量的出入境的资产管制，最终将变得几乎不可能。带数字资产出境，可比带黄金过海关方便多了。我可以在国内通过线下收一些数字资产，然后到美国之后，再转成美元。这些数字资产，有些是比特币以太坊，有些就是比如facebook或者google发行的带权益的积分。如果嫌比特币波动大，可以选择兑换法币相对稳定的stable coin。\n\n然后再往前想一些，我们在电影里经常看到未来世界的大地区政府，或者星际政府，用的货币是不是更可能基于公开的账本区块链呢？要推进地区融合，货币的融合是很重要的一步，欧盟做了这么久欧元，说不定反而没有数字资产来得迅速。\n\n数字资产的发展一定比我们想象的迅速，篇幅所限，这篇文章就只写了第一点数字货币-比特币的一些观点。",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Or you can do, icx to btc, btc to ltc, send to coinbase, sell them to usd/eur. After that, re enter in the game. It is your own decision, but you can also trade direct to Usdt, or btc and after usdt, it's more fast, but take care about tether (usdt). Everyone these days talking bad about Usdt. Peace :D",
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      "body": "@@ -1,17 +1,18 @@\n g\n-ood\n+reat\n  article\n-.\n+!\n  one\n",
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      "body": "good article. one question: when you take profit on ICX/BTC, you'll hold BTC or USDT?",
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      "body": "最近在看方三文的《您厉害，您赚得多》，确实是本好书。\n在目前区块链市场热度过高的情况下，看看这种累积了多年投资经验的力作，有助于把思路放得长远一点，冷静下来，“佛系”投资。毕竟我们打算在这个市场待上10年，穿越牛熊，享受区块链市场增长的整体红利啊~\n\n看的页数还不是很多，但已经常被某些观点打动。比如下面这句话：\n> 你认为投资机会很少，那么你可能会赚得很多；你认为投资机会很多，那么你可能会赚得很少，甚至亏掉自己的本金。\n\n又比如下面关于“好的资本市场”的论述：\n\n> 一个好的资本市场一定是供需平衡的，而中国的资本市场一直都是供需失衡，股票少、钱多，导致股价高，没有淘汰机制，估值工具失灵。\n> 那么什么样的资本市场才是好的市场，我觉得符合下面特征的市场就是好的市场：\n> （1）交易所和券商求着公司上市，公司并不在意。为了拓展上市公司资源，交易所需要到拉丁美洲和非洲去开展业务。\n> （2）经常有公司退市——主动或者被动。\n> （3）经常有准备上市的公司主动放弃上市，或者发行失败，原因是认购不足。\n> （4）上市首日，“破发”的概率接近或者超过50%。\n> （5）经常出现市盈率接近1倍或者现金余额超过市值的上市公司。\n> （6）上市公司经常回购自己的股票。\n\n方三文也认为，未来一个公司要上市，不一定非要在A股，美国，应该是想去哪里就去哪里。用户也想去哪里投资就去哪里投资。这才是好的资本市场。看到这里，不禁想起了现在的各大区块链交易所，上述有些条件已经满足了（而有些还远远未满足）。当然现在还处于非常早期，有很多泡沫和骗局。假以时日，随着去中心化交易所越来越多。这些条件有可能会慢慢满足。而且，我认为，把规则写到区块链上去监督，去治理，可比写在法律文件里让人放心多了。\n\n我对区块链，或者加密货币市场是长期乐观的。关于比特币，随处能听到“泡沫”和“骗局”的声音。甚至很多只听说过比特币，连智能合约都没听过的人都在那里附和。正是他们的存在，我更觉得目前还处于整个市场的早期。目前它处于类似90年代互联网泡沫的时期。它会破灭一阵，它会螺旋式上升回来，但它不是骗局。\n\n最早我对比特币的理解是，它用来是对标黄金，是信心货币。而信心货币是个自我实现的过程（自我实现不了就成为“庞氏骗局”了）。计算机挖矿并不比当年的淘金热消耗更大的资源。但是随着认知的发展，我意识到，区块链已经形成了自己的生态金融系统。区块链是自带应用的技术，ICO一下子把融资的特权从华尔街的抢走/下放，以后会有越来越多的公司，或个人发行自己的币，或者我更愿意叫做token。\n\n为了让大家直观的感受某个币背后的价值，我们来举一个很容易计算的例子。比如最近暴涨的BNB（币安币）。币安是目前最先进，流量最大的币币交易所（之一）。交易所的利润当然极高，好几个月前就是每月6亿人民币，现在就更不用说了。而且随着市场的开拓，交易人数和交易币种（可以想象成股票）都会增加，可以预期交易额不断增长，增长空间也很大；另外还有很多功能，比如融资融券还没有开展。币安的团队无论技术还是理念方面都比较先进，也在布局去中心化交易所，根据这些基本面，我认为币安就像白酒界的茅台，很看好BNB。\n\n那么BNB能够带来什么好处呢？BNB可以用来减免50%的交易费用，考虑到巨大的交易量，这是很大的利益激励；同时每个季度币安会用20%的利润进行回购BNB，并进行销毁（直到触发某个条件）；另外BNB可以用来在币安进行项目众筹和投票免费上币。由于上币就像股票上市一样，能够公司带来巨大的利润，那么BNB的投票价值也很高。最后BNB也在扩展用途，比如给一些直播打赏；公司内部员工也会分发BNB作为激励。\n\n那么BNB的市值是多少呢？在我意识到这一点的时候，BNB的市值才25亿人民币，如果按照年利润算，即使完全不算增长，市盈率是 25 / (6 * 12)，才1都不到。这相当于你买套房，不到一年租金就能挣回来；开个奶茶店，不到一年就能回本。我知道BNB并不等于股票，它没有公司的投票权，不能完全这么算。但既然通过BNB能够分享币安的利润增长，我认为BNB绝对低估。\n\n果然资本迅速涌向了低估的洼地，目前BNB已经涨了4倍。\n\n除了BNB这个例子，很多发行区块链token的初创企业（主要是欧美），已经开始做很多可见的实事，比如基于区块链的抵押借贷，医疗，信用等。也有很多基础设施，比如去中心化的论坛（无法删帖），去中心化的V。P。N（略）。当然，就像90年代末的互联网泡沫一样，这里面的企业，大多数都是会死的。（如果你还记得pet.com，甚至，如果你还记得雅虎）。但互联网市场后来开启了第二春。\n\n通过上面这些个例子，我尝试阐述，目前区块链市场上的很多token，已经具有了价值基础（不管是否高估）。\n\n再说说个人发行token的事情，我一开始听到个人能够发行token的想法时觉得很可笑，毕竟现在有太多泡沫和圈钱的骗局。但是个人可以拍电影，发布视频在很多年前也是很难想象的，那个时候电视台牢牢控制在公权力的手中。那个时候，一个主播能够通过直播挣钱也是不可想象的，如果一个名人发行了自己的token，而这个token能够激励更好的服务，那为何不可？\n\n当然，金融系统是需要监管的。这种监管一方面会来自法律，一方面来自写在区块链上的约定，还有一方面会来自整个市场/社区的自适应调整。现在是发行token的机构和公司太少了，随着时代的发展，会有专业的人做专业的事情，一切都会好起来。\n\n区块链和互联网某种程度有一点相似，都是屌丝逆袭的世界。区块链的世界讨厌法币，也被法币排斥，所以大多数新发行的币种，在交易所交易大多用BTC（比特币）结算（也有些用ETH结算）。（ICO（融资/众筹）目前大多用ETH（以太坊））。\n\n那么随着区块链市场上的初创企业越来越多，他们都需要比特币来进行做市和结算。这就像石油都必须用美元结算一样，比特币就是目前区块链上的硬通货。光这一点，已经使比特币背靠整个区块链融资的初创企业的生态圈，是个很大的价值支撑。\n\n至于挖矿消耗的电力和计算资源，这点完全不用可惜。“算力”本就是这个世纪最重要的力量之一。随着区块链的发展，算力，公司（币的发行方），用户形成制衡的三角。公司提供服务，用户通过交易为服务进行定价，“算力”会自行寻找出路寻找最优路径。这一刻，亚当斯密灵魂附体。\n\n不知美国人是不是看到了这一点，他们试探性的把比特币放到了芝加哥期货交易所，这能帮助他们控制（部分）定价权。而中国政府拱手把整个时代推向外部，日本获得比特币故乡的称号（中本聪？），并借此提振一部分GDP。加拿大和冰岛等由于天寒，迅速抢夺中国外溢的挖矿企业。\n\n比特币这种自我实现的过程，我想甚至中本聪都没预料到。",
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