Ecoer Logo
VOTING POWER100.00%
DOWNVOTE POWER100.00%
RESOURCE CREDITS100.00%
REPUTATION PROGRESS24.02%
Net Worth
1.820USD
STEEM
0.003STEEM
SBD
3.620SBD
Effective Power
5.001SP
├── Own SP
0.628SP
└── Incoming Deleg
+4.373SP

Detailed Balance

STEEM
balance
0.000STEEM
market_balance
0.000STEEM
savings_balance
0.000STEEM
reward_steem_balance
0.003STEEM
STEEM POWER
Own SP
0.628SP
Delegated Out
0.000SP
Delegation In
4.373SP
Effective Power
5.001SP
Reward SP (pending)
1.550SP
SBD
sbd_balance
0.000SBD
sbd_conversions
0.000SBD
sbd_market_balance
0.000SBD
savings_sbd_balance
0.000SBD
reward_sbd_balance
3.620SBD
{
  "balance": "0.000 STEEM",
  "savings_balance": "0.000 STEEM",
  "reward_steem_balance": "0.003 STEEM",
  "vesting_shares": "1023.129661 VESTS",
  "delegated_vesting_shares": "0.000000 VESTS",
  "received_vesting_shares": "7120.530145 VESTS",
  "sbd_balance": "0.000 SBD",
  "savings_sbd_balance": "0.000 SBD",
  "reward_sbd_balance": "3.620 SBD",
  "conversions": []
}

Account Info

namekoosjansen
id687115
rank621,880
reputation38216269767
created2018-01-29T18:05:18
recovery_accountsteem
proxyNone
post_count7
comment_count0
lifetime_vote_count0
witnesses_voted_for0
last_post2018-03-11T20:58:15
last_root_post2018-03-11T20:58:15
last_vote_time2018-03-11T21:09:27
proxied_vsf_votes0, 0, 0, 0
can_vote1
voting_power0
delayed_votes0
balance0.000 STEEM
savings_balance0.000 STEEM
sbd_balance0.000 SBD
savings_sbd_balance0.000 SBD
vesting_shares1023.129661 VESTS
delegated_vesting_shares0.000000 VESTS
received_vesting_shares7120.530145 VESTS
reward_vesting_balance3164.666983 VESTS
vesting_balance0.000 STEEM
vesting_withdraw_rate0.000000 VESTS
next_vesting_withdrawal1969-12-31T23:59:59
withdrawn0
to_withdraw0
withdraw_routes0
savings_withdraw_requests0
last_account_recovery1970-01-01T00:00:00
reset_accountnull
last_owner_update1970-01-01T00:00:00
last_account_update2018-01-29T20:08:48
minedNo
sbd_seconds0
sbd_last_interest_payment1970-01-01T00:00:00
savings_sbd_last_interest_payment1970-01-01T00:00:00
{
  "id": 687115,
  "name": "koosjansen",
  "owner": {
    "weight_threshold": 1,
    "account_auths": [],
    "key_auths": [
      [
        "STM59KQueJAux1fLp31R3gwwqcXoKpiJEWn4gZd65GsFimHGGNwyG",
        1
      ]
    ]
  },
  "active": {
    "weight_threshold": 1,
    "account_auths": [],
    "key_auths": [
      [
        "STM6Jh5G4Mjk6vGqjxic5uCZqLFhZ6BiK73Ce38ZKmQCYf6udeJf3",
        1
      ]
    ]
  },
  "posting": {
    "weight_threshold": 1,
    "account_auths": [],
    "key_auths": [
      [
        "STM56kn9mSNzZ5pFnWUPYUyE5JeY8GUYT35Nqa1HJDzvv6yXVzhDp",
        1
      ]
    ]
  },
  "memo_key": "STM6yQcFMFZFcQnHBTuVCiR5YZoLQwDoBdCVHdJ7EuXWYVyQQSau2",
  "json_metadata": "{\"profile\":{\"name\":\"Koos Jansen\",\"location\":\"Netherlands \",\"profile_image\":\"https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/koos-jansen-FD-2016-smaller.png\",\"cover_image\":\"https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Gold-nuggets.jpg\"}}",
  "posting_json_metadata": "{\"profile\":{\"name\":\"Koos Jansen\",\"location\":\"Netherlands \",\"profile_image\":\"https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/koos-jansen-FD-2016-smaller.png\",\"cover_image\":\"https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Gold-nuggets.jpg\"}}",
  "proxy": "",
  "last_owner_update": "1970-01-01T00:00:00",
  "last_account_update": "2018-01-29T20:08:48",
  "created": "2018-01-29T18:05:18",
  "mined": false,
  "recovery_account": "steem",
  "last_account_recovery": "1970-01-01T00:00:00",
  "reset_account": "null",
  "comment_count": 0,
  "lifetime_vote_count": 0,
  "post_count": 7,
  "can_vote": true,
  "voting_manabar": {
    "current_mana": "8143659806",
    "last_update_time": 1779071844
  },
  "downvote_manabar": {
    "current_mana": 2035914951,
    "last_update_time": 1779071844
  },
  "voting_power": 0,
  "balance": "0.000 STEEM",
  "savings_balance": "0.000 STEEM",
  "sbd_balance": "0.000 SBD",
  "sbd_seconds": "0",
  "sbd_seconds_last_update": "1970-01-01T00:00:00",
  "sbd_last_interest_payment": "1970-01-01T00:00:00",
  "savings_sbd_balance": "0.000 SBD",
  "savings_sbd_seconds": "0",
  "savings_sbd_seconds_last_update": "1970-01-01T00:00:00",
  "savings_sbd_last_interest_payment": "1970-01-01T00:00:00",
  "savings_withdraw_requests": 0,
  "reward_sbd_balance": "3.620 SBD",
  "reward_steem_balance": "0.003 STEEM",
  "reward_vesting_balance": "3164.666983 VESTS",
  "reward_vesting_steem": "1.550 STEEM",
  "vesting_shares": "1023.129661 VESTS",
  "delegated_vesting_shares": "0.000000 VESTS",
  "received_vesting_shares": "7120.530145 VESTS",
  "vesting_withdraw_rate": "0.000000 VESTS",
  "next_vesting_withdrawal": "1969-12-31T23:59:59",
  "withdrawn": 0,
  "to_withdraw": 0,
  "withdraw_routes": 0,
  "curation_rewards": 1,
  "posting_rewards": 3097,
  "proxied_vsf_votes": [
    0,
    0,
    0,
    0
  ],
  "witnesses_voted_for": 0,
  "last_post": "2018-03-11T20:58:15",
  "last_root_post": "2018-03-11T20:58:15",
  "last_vote_time": "2018-03-11T21:09:27",
  "post_bandwidth": 0,
  "pending_claimed_accounts": 0,
  "vesting_balance": "0.000 STEEM",
  "reputation": "38216269767",
  "transfer_history": [],
  "market_history": [],
  "post_history": [],
  "vote_history": [],
  "other_history": [],
  "witness_votes": [],
  "tags_usage": [],
  "guest_bloggers": [],
  "rank": 621880
}

Withdraw Routes

IncomingOutgoing
Empty
Empty
{
  "incoming": [],
  "outgoing": []
}
From Date
To Date
steemdelegated 4.373 SP to @koosjansen
2026/05/18 02:37:24
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares7120.530145 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #106146278/Trx e3589eeeac69bb91f852c15d280794a65ad248e2
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "e3589eeeac69bb91f852c15d280794a65ad248e2",
  "block": 106146278,
  "trx_in_block": 1,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2026-05-18T02:37:24",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "7120.530145 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 2.707 SP to @koosjansen
2026/05/12 13:26:03
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares4408.319740 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #105987200/Trx 25d6e96c55b0120f19d4064457da4f2db4d571da
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "25d6e96c55b0120f19d4064457da4f2db4d571da",
  "block": 105987200,
  "trx_in_block": 6,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2026-05-12T13:26:03",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "4408.319740 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 4.381 SP to @koosjansen
2026/04/26 01:54:33
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares7133.045901 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #105513862/Trx 8dc1a59788fa3eb6102e711991f650f7950d97ad
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "8dc1a59788fa3eb6102e711991f650f7950d97ad",
  "block": 105513862,
  "trx_in_block": 0,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2026-04-26T01:54:33",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "7133.045901 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 2.733 SP to @koosjansen
2026/01/23 14:09:27
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares4449.866559 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #102859427/Trx b3a7cd59ea52a98aa585a00aa43b7da81fdf1675
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "b3a7cd59ea52a98aa585a00aa43b7da81fdf1675",
  "block": 102859427,
  "trx_in_block": 1,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2026-01-23T14:09:27",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "4449.866559 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 2.834 SP to @koosjansen
2024/12/17 09:24:15
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares4614.085756 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #91305735/Trx 3031dfa94d8170a86c2f1b534a9420038eb3f198
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "3031dfa94d8170a86c2f1b534a9420038eb3f198",
  "block": 91305735,
  "trx_in_block": 0,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2024-12-17T09:24:15",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "4614.085756 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 2.937 SP to @koosjansen
2023/11/14 01:05:57
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares4783.219288 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #79859912/Trx 86a6c02eccbe5f37b6487ecbddcf708a01282250
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "86a6c02eccbe5f37b6487ecbddcf708a01282250",
  "block": 79859912,
  "trx_in_block": 5,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2023-11-14T01:05:57",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "4783.219288 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 4.741 SP to @koosjansen
2023/09/22 00:37:09
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares7720.498074 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #78351166/Trx 6baab1652b1b4518a7e6aebb1b195d42f5406887
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "6baab1652b1b4518a7e6aebb1b195d42f5406887",
  "block": 78351166,
  "trx_in_block": 4,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2023-09-22T00:37:09",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "7720.498074 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 4.877 SP to @koosjansen
2022/11/03 14:03:51
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares7942.179512 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #69116079/Trx 29d81a89e8c4e1d5f5bf789b2f14eb012dcae49e
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "29d81a89e8c4e1d5f5bf789b2f14eb012dcae49e",
  "block": 69116079,
  "trx_in_block": 4,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2022-11-03T14:03:51",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "7942.179512 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 5.013 SP to @koosjansen
2022/01/17 17:23:33
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares8162.414648 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #60817099/Trx 6a912252b0cb2f4563c30ffbc455b513f9154b45
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "6a912252b0cb2f4563c30ffbc455b513f9154b45",
  "block": 60817099,
  "trx_in_block": 11,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2022-01-17T17:23:33",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "8162.414648 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 5.126 SP to @koosjansen
2021/06/14 02:57:06
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares8346.481401 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #54610273/Trx 6c9d0325dd55e6e4f674af1f17b570012e063106
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "6c9d0325dd55e6e4f674af1f17b570012e063106",
  "block": 54610273,
  "trx_in_block": 9,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2021-06-14T02:57:06",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "8346.481401 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 5.241 SP to @koosjansen
2020/12/11 13:13:12
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares8533.903375 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #49357650/Trx dfeed83cba20401d0a6694dfc5c54935e9dc7423
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "dfeed83cba20401d0a6694dfc5c54935e9dc7423",
  "block": 49357650,
  "trx_in_block": 7,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2020-12-11T13:13:12",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "8533.903375 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 1.175 SP to @koosjansen
2020/12/06 06:49:48
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares1912.543513 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #49209199/Trx e5ecd11f7be6906de61e7b683e023f833c43b996
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "e5ecd11f7be6906de61e7b683e023f833c43b996",
  "block": 49209199,
  "trx_in_block": 4,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2020-12-06T06:49:48",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "1912.543513 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 5.245 SP to @koosjansen
2020/12/05 16:51:12
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares8540.111229 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #49192743/Trx aa0a9db4fcdfe2d6905fb4fe29519004b3c5bd80
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "aa0a9db4fcdfe2d6905fb4fe29519004b3c5bd80",
  "block": 49192743,
  "trx_in_block": 12,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2020-12-05T16:51:12",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "8540.111229 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 1.179 SP to @koosjansen
2020/11/02 20:00:42
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares1920.017158 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #48262953/Trx f5b7a3b0f28b2166891f31b75745516466840887
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "f5b7a3b0f28b2166891f31b75745516466840887",
  "block": 48262953,
  "trx_in_block": 5,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2020-11-02T20:00:42",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "1920.017158 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 5.369 SP to @koosjansen
2020/05/09 07:49:27
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares8742.916588 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #43219478/Trx b308c0169d9ddd164a4ac05142d4d3cadbe5e1ce
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "b308c0169d9ddd164a4ac05142d4d3cadbe5e1ce",
  "block": 43219478,
  "trx_in_block": 20,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2020-05-09T07:49:27",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "8742.916588 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 1.200 SP to @koosjansen
2020/05/08 11:44:24
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares1953.311140 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #43195944/Trx 84690fe196c57a239767cfc38eef5674a22ee8ab
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "84690fe196c57a239767cfc38eef5674a22ee8ab",
  "block": 43195944,
  "trx_in_block": 12,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2020-05-08T11:44:24",
  "op": [
    "delegate_vesting_shares",
    {
      "delegator": "steem",
      "delegatee": "koosjansen",
      "vesting_shares": "1953.311140 VESTS"
    }
  ]
}
2020/01/30 00:54:42
parent authorkoosjansen
parent permlinknothing-wrong-with-gold-in-backwardation
authorsteemitboard
permlinksteemitboard-notify-koosjansen-20200130t005441000z
title
bodyCongratulations @koosjansen! You received a personal award! <table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@koosjansen/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table> <sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@koosjansen) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=koosjansen)_</sub> ###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!
json metadata{"image":["https://steemitboard.com/img/notify.png"]}
Transaction InfoBlock #40366992/Trx 8d517f1f4d454db54e8ef21e24e33a848a99688a
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "8d517f1f4d454db54e8ef21e24e33a848a99688a",
  "block": 40366992,
  "trx_in_block": 4,
  "op_in_trx": 0,
  "virtual_op": 0,
  "timestamp": "2020-01-30T00:54:42",
  "op": [
    "comment",
    {
      "parent_author": "koosjansen",
      "parent_permlink": "nothing-wrong-with-gold-in-backwardation",
      "author": "steemitboard",
      "permlink": "steemitboard-notify-koosjansen-20200130t005441000z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Congratulations @koosjansen! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@koosjansen/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@koosjansen) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=koosjansen)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
      "json_metadata": "{\"image\":[\"https://steemitboard.com/img/notify.png\"]}"
    }
  ]
}
steemdelegated 5.484 SP to @koosjansen
2019/06/17 16:00:36
delegatorsteem
delegateekoosjansen
vesting shares8930.565076 VESTS
Transaction InfoBlock #33882603/Trx 28e5982f0cbf7b75e61fa74492166a51ef62ecb2
View Raw JSON Data
{
  "trx_id": "28e5982f0cbf7b75e61fa74492166a51ef62ecb2",
  "block": 33882603,
  "trx_in_block": 19,
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2019/01/30 00:39:09
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2018/03/26 21:51:06
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2018/03/18 20:58:15
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2018/03/18 20:58:15
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2018/03/12 22:02:06
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2018/03/12 22:01:09
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2018/03/12 19:50:30
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2018/03/11 21:37:00
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2018/03/11 21:11:45
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authorkoosjansen
permlinknothing-wrong-with-gold-in-backwardation
titleNothing wrong with gold in backwardation.
body@@ -2869,16 +2869,19 @@ ounces +of gold and
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2018/03/11 21:10:00
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titleNothing wrong with gold in backwardation.
bodyFor many years there are stories making rounds in the blogosphere that whenever gold is in backwardation "this is not supposed to happen" because it opens up a "risk-free arbitrage". In a market that is not manipulated, the arbitrage would be jumped immediately and so backwardation is a signal of manipulation (or lack of trust in futures markets) and shortages in the physical market - or so the story goes. I won't address all theories by the story tellers related to price manipulation in this micro-blog, but let's have a look at the alleged "risk-free arbitrage" and see why this argument is false. Backwardation means that futures price are lower than the spot price. In such a scenario, traders can sell spot and buy it back through a futures contract to make a profit. Sounds logical doesn't it? Alas, there is more to it. ![Picture1.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmP4xWGDwAhuVKcJ1j6MEUA1DrcT7ZDyntr43n83Pdtqff/Picture1.png) As we know (or read this if you don't know https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/gofo-and-the-gold-wholesale-market/) the forward curve of a currency is a reflection of interest rates. For gold, denominated in USD, the forward curve is determined by gold's interest rate (the gold lease rate, GLR) and the US dollar interest rate (LIBOR). The formula is: Gold forward rate ≈ LIBOR - GLR In the example gold futures curve above we can see spot gold is $1,300 per troy ounce and gold 12-months out is $1,248 per troy ounce. The curve is obviously in backwardation. The 12-months forward rate (the forward price relative to spot in percentages) in this example is - 4 %, LIBOR is 2 %, and GLR is 6 %. In the formula it looks like this: - 4 % = 2 % - 6 % According to some analyst gold backwardation opens a "riks free arbitrage" possibility by selling spot and buying forward. Suppose we want to execute this trade within our example. 1) We borrow 100 ounces of gold at 6 % (GLR). In 12-months we need to repay the principal plus interest which is 106 ounces. 2) We sell spot 100 ounces of gold for $130,000 and deposit the dollar proceeds at 2 %. 3) We buy a futures (/forward) contract for 106 ounces 12-months out. 12-months later… 4) Our dollar deposit has grown into $132,600 (1.02 * $130,000). 5) With our USD funds we can take delivery of 106 ounces. The total price to pay is, 106 * 1,248 = $132,500 What?! There's nearly no profit? Only $100 which can be neglected if you add in transaction costs etcetera. How is this possible? The simple explanation is that my example is a no-arbitrage condition. If the formula "gold forward rate ≈ LIBOR - GLR", more or less holds there can be no profit. The story tellers say that backwardation still shouldn't occur because if someone already owns gold (instead of having to borrow it) he could make a profit. Let's go through the math. Suppose I own 100 ounces gold and want to execute the trade. 1) We sell my 100 ounces at $1,300, pocketing $130,000 and deposit the proceeds at 2 %. 2) We buy a futures contract for 100 ounces 12-months out. 12-months later… 3) Our dollar deposit has grown into $132,600 (1.02*$130,000). 4) With the USD funds we can take delivery to buy back my 100 ounces. The total price to pay is, 100 * 1,248 = $124,800 Now we have some profit, $132,600 - $124,800 = $7,800 So, did we really make a "risk-free" profit? If you think about it, what we did is sell gold and buy it back after 12 months. From another angle, we lend it out for 12 months and made $7,800. But if we had lend gold out directly in the lease market at the prevailing rate (6 %) we would have made exactly the same amount of dollars. Often gold loans are settled in dollars. At the start of the loan the amount of dollars agreed as interest is the gold interest multiplied by the spot price. If we had lend out 100 ounces at 6 % the gold interest would be 6 ounces times $1,300 is $7,800. 100 * 0.06 * 1300 = $7,800 If one owns gold and the gold futures curve is in backwardation, the profit to be made by selling spot and buying forward will be exactly the same as leasing one's gold out directly. Both trades boil down to the same time thing: lending gold out. We know that lending out money comes with the risk of default for which the lender is compensated with interest. In this post we've seen that it doesn't make a difference if one lends out money (gold) directly through the lease market or indirectly through the futures market. The argument that gold backwardation shouldn't happen because it should be arbitraged (risk-free) away is not true, because the futures curve simply reflects interest rates. If you look at the futures curve of the Indian Rupee, denominated in USD, http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/emerging-market/indian-rupee.html you'll see backwardation simply because the Indian Rupee interest rate is higher than LIBOR. In conclusion, there's nothing unusual about currencies in backwardation in my opinion.
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      "title": "Nothing wrong with gold in backwardation.",
      "body": "For many years there are stories making rounds in the blogosphere that whenever gold is in backwardation \"this is not supposed to happen\" because it opens up a \"risk-free arbitrage\". In a market that is not manipulated, the arbitrage would be jumped immediately and so backwardation is a signal of manipulation (or lack of trust in futures markets) and shortages in the physical market - or so the story goes. I won't address all theories by the story tellers related to price manipulation in this micro-blog, but let's have a look at the alleged \"risk-free arbitrage\" and see why this argument is false. \n\nBackwardation means that futures price are lower than the spot price. In such a scenario, traders can sell spot and buy it back through a futures contract to make a profit. Sounds logical doesn't it? Alas, there is more to it. \n\n ![Picture1.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmP4xWGDwAhuVKcJ1j6MEUA1DrcT7ZDyntr43n83Pdtqff/Picture1.png)\n\nAs we know (or read this if you don't know https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/gofo-and-the-gold-wholesale-market/) the forward curve of a currency is a reflection of interest rates. For gold, denominated in USD, the forward curve is determined by gold's interest rate (the gold lease rate, GLR) and the US dollar interest rate (LIBOR). The formula is:\n\nGold forward rate ≈ LIBOR - GLR \n\nIn the example gold futures curve above we can see spot gold is $1,300 per troy ounce and gold 12-months out is $1,248 per troy ounce. The curve is obviously in backwardation. The 12-months forward rate (the forward price relative to spot in percentages) in this example is - 4 %, LIBOR is 2 %, and GLR is 6 %. \n\nIn the formula it looks like this: - 4 % = 2 % - 6 % \n\nAccording to some analyst gold backwardation opens a \"riks free arbitrage\" possibility by selling spot and buying forward. Suppose we want to execute this trade within our example. \n\n1)\tWe borrow 100 ounces of gold at 6 % (GLR). In 12-months we need to repay the principal plus interest which is 106 ounces.\n2)\tWe sell spot 100 ounces of gold for $130,000 and deposit the dollar proceeds at 2 %.\n3)\tWe buy a futures (/forward) contract for 106 ounces 12-months out.\n\n12-months later…\n\n4)\tOur dollar deposit has grown into $132,600 (1.02 * $130,000). \n5)\tWith our USD funds we can take delivery of 106 ounces. The total price to pay is, \n\n106 * 1,248 = $132,500 \n\nWhat?! There's nearly no profit? Only $100 which can be neglected if you add in transaction costs etcetera. How is this possible? The simple explanation is that my example is a no-arbitrage condition. If the formula \"gold forward rate ≈ LIBOR - GLR\", more or less holds there can be no profit. \n\nThe story tellers say that backwardation still shouldn't occur because if someone already owns gold (instead of having to borrow it) he could make a profit. Let's go through the math. Suppose I own 100 ounces gold and want to execute the trade. \n\n1)\tWe sell my 100 ounces at $1,300, pocketing $130,000 and deposit the proceeds at 2 %.\n2)\tWe buy a futures contract for 100 ounces 12-months out.\n\n12-months later…\n\n3)\tOur dollar deposit has grown into $132,600 (1.02*$130,000). \n4)\tWith the USD funds we can take delivery to buy back my 100 ounces. The total price to pay is, \n\n100 * 1,248 = $124,800 \n\nNow we have some profit,\n\n$132,600 - $124,800 = $7,800\n\nSo, did we really make a \"risk-free\" profit? If you think about it, what we did is sell gold and buy it back after 12 months. From another angle, we lend it out for 12 months and made $7,800. But if we had lend gold out directly in the lease market at the prevailing rate (6 %) we would have made exactly the same amount of dollars. \n\nOften gold loans are settled in dollars. At the start of the loan the amount of dollars agreed as interest is the gold interest multiplied by the spot price. If we had lend out 100 ounces at 6 % the gold interest would be 6 ounces times $1,300 is $7,800.    \n\n100 * 0.06 * 1300 = $7,800\n\nIf one owns gold and the gold futures curve is in backwardation, the profit to be made by selling spot and buying forward will be exactly the same as leasing one's gold out directly. Both trades boil down to the same time thing: lending gold out. We know that lending out money comes with the risk of default for which the lender is compensated with interest. In this post we've seen that it doesn't make a difference if one lends out money (gold) directly through the lease market or indirectly through the futures market. \n\nThe argument that gold backwardation shouldn't happen because it should be arbitraged (risk-free) away is not true, because the futures curve simply reflects interest rates. \n\nIf you look at the futures curve of the Indian Rupee, denominated in USD, http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/emerging-market/indian-rupee.html you'll see backwardation simply because the Indian Rupee interest rate is higher than LIBOR. \n\nIn conclusion, there's nothing unusual about currencies in backwardation in my opinion.",
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2018/03/11 21:09:27
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2018/03/11 21:07:42
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2018/03/11 21:02:51
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2018/03/11 21:02:12
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bodynice article, Thank you!
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      "body": "nice article, Thank you!",
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2018/03/11 21:02:00
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bodynie article, Thank you!
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2018/03/11 21:00:24
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body@@ -99,18 +99,20 @@ dation %22 -i t +his is not
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2018/03/11 20:58:15
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authorkoosjansen
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titleNothing wrong with gold in backwardation.
bodyFor many years there are stories making rounds in the blogosphere that whenever gold is in backwardation "it is not supposed to happen" because it opens up a "risk-free arbitrage". In a market that is not manipulated, the arbitrage would be jumped immediately and so backwardation is a signal of manipulation (or lack of trust in futures markets) and shortages in the physical market - or so the story goes. I won't address all theories by the story tellers related to price manipulation in this micro-blog, but let's have a look at the alleged "risk-free arbitrage" and see why this argument is false. Backwardation means that futures price are lower than the spot price. In such a scenario, traders can sell spot and buy it back through a futures contract to make a profit. Sounds logical doesn't it? Alas, there is more to it. ![Picture1.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmP4xWGDwAhuVKcJ1j6MEUA1DrcT7ZDyntr43n83Pdtqff/Picture1.png) As we know (or read this if you don't know https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/gofo-and-the-gold-wholesale-market/) the forward curve of a currency is a reflection of interest rates. For gold, denominated in USD, the forward curve is determined by gold's interest rate (the gold lease rate, GLR) and the US dollar interest rate (LIBOR). The formula is: Gold forward rate ≈ LIBOR - GLR In the example gold futures curve above we can see spot gold is $1,300 per troy ounce and gold 12-months out is $1,248 per troy ounce. The curve is obviously in backwardation. The 12-months forward rate (the forward price relative to spot in percentages) in this example is - 4 %, LIBOR is 2 %, and GLR is 6 %. In the formula it looks like this: - 4 % = 2 % - 6 % According to some analyst gold backwardation opens a "riks free arbitrage" possibility by selling spot and buying forward. Suppose we want to execute this trade within our example. 1) We borrow 100 ounces of gold at 6 % (GLR). In 12-months we need to repay the principal plus interest which is 106 ounces. 2) We sell spot 100 ounces of gold for $130,000 and deposit the dollar proceeds at 2 %. 3) We buy a futures (/forward) contract for 106 ounces 12-months out. 12-months later… 4) Our dollar deposit has grown into $132,600 (1.02 * $130,000). 5) With our USD funds we can take delivery of 106 ounces. The total price to pay is, 106 * 1,248 = $132,500 What?! There's nearly no profit? Only $100 which can be neglected if you add in transaction costs etcetera. How is this possible? The simple explanation is that my example is a no-arbitrage condition. If the formula "gold forward rate ≈ LIBOR - GLR", more or less holds there can be no profit. The story tellers say that backwardation still shouldn't occur because if someone already owns gold (instead of having to borrow it) he could make a profit. Let's go through the math. Suppose I own 100 ounces gold and want to execute the trade. 1) We sell my 100 ounces at $1,300, pocketing $130,000 and deposit the proceeds at 2 %. 2) We buy a futures contract for 100 ounces 12-months out. 12-months later… 3) Our dollar deposit has grown into $132,600 (1.02*$130,000). 4) With the USD funds we can take delivery to buy back my 100 ounces. The total price to pay is, 100 * 1,248 = $124,800 Now we have some profit, $132,600 - $124,800 = $7,800 So, did we really make a "risk-free" profit? If you think about it, what we did is sell gold and buy it back after 12 months. From another angle, we lend it out for 12 months and made $7,800. But if we had lend gold out directly in the lease market at the prevailing rate (6 %) we would have made exactly the same amount of dollars. Often gold loans are settled in dollars. At the start of the loan the amount of dollars agreed as interest is the gold interest multiplied by the spot price. If we had lend out 100 ounces at 6 % the gold interest would be 6 ounces times $1,300 is $7,800. 100 * 0.06 * 1300 = $7,800 If one owns gold and the gold futures curve is in backwardation, the profit to be made by selling spot and buying forward will be exactly the same as leasing one's gold out directly. Both trades boil down to the same time thing: lending gold out. We know that lending out money comes with the risk of default for which the lender is compensated with interest. In this post we've seen that it doesn't make a difference if one lends out money (gold) directly through the lease market or indirectly through the futures market. The argument that gold backwardation shouldn't happen because it should be arbitraged (risk-free) away is not true, because the futures curve simply reflects interest rates. If you look at the futures curve of the Indian Rupee, denominated in USD, http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/emerging-market/indian-rupee.html you'll see backwardation simply because the Indian Rupee interest rate is higher than LIBOR. In conclusion, there's nothing unusual about currencies in backwardation in my opinion.
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      "body": "For many years there are stories making rounds in the blogosphere that whenever gold is in backwardation \"it is not supposed to happen\" because it opens up a \"risk-free arbitrage\". In a market that is not manipulated, the arbitrage would be jumped immediately and so backwardation is a signal of manipulation (or lack of trust in futures markets) and shortages in the physical market - or so the story goes. I won't address all theories by the story tellers related to price manipulation in this micro-blog, but let's have a look at the alleged \"risk-free arbitrage\" and see why this argument is false. \n\nBackwardation means that futures price are lower than the spot price. In such a scenario, traders can sell spot and buy it back through a futures contract to make a profit. Sounds logical doesn't it? Alas, there is more to it. \n\n ![Picture1.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmP4xWGDwAhuVKcJ1j6MEUA1DrcT7ZDyntr43n83Pdtqff/Picture1.png)\n\nAs we know (or read this if you don't know https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/gofo-and-the-gold-wholesale-market/) the forward curve of a currency is a reflection of interest rates. For gold, denominated in USD, the forward curve is determined by gold's interest rate (the gold lease rate, GLR) and the US dollar interest rate (LIBOR). The formula is:\n\nGold forward rate ≈ LIBOR - GLR \n\nIn the example gold futures curve above we can see spot gold is $1,300 per troy ounce and gold 12-months out is $1,248 per troy ounce. The curve is obviously in backwardation. The 12-months forward rate (the forward price relative to spot in percentages) in this example is - 4 %, LIBOR is 2 %, and GLR is 6 %. \n\nIn the formula it looks like this: - 4 % = 2 % - 6 % \n\nAccording to some analyst gold backwardation opens a \"riks free arbitrage\" possibility by selling spot and buying forward. Suppose we want to execute this trade within our example. \n\n1)\tWe borrow 100 ounces of gold at 6 % (GLR). In 12-months we need to repay the principal plus interest which is 106 ounces.\n2)\tWe sell spot 100 ounces of gold for $130,000 and deposit the dollar proceeds at 2 %.\n3)\tWe buy a futures (/forward) contract for 106 ounces 12-months out.\n\n12-months later…\n\n4)\tOur dollar deposit has grown into $132,600 (1.02 * $130,000). \n5)\tWith our USD funds we can take delivery of 106 ounces. The total price to pay is, \n\n106 * 1,248 = $132,500 \n\nWhat?! There's nearly no profit? Only $100 which can be neglected if you add in transaction costs etcetera. How is this possible? The simple explanation is that my example is a no-arbitrage condition. If the formula \"gold forward rate ≈ LIBOR - GLR\", more or less holds there can be no profit. \n\nThe story tellers say that backwardation still shouldn't occur because if someone already owns gold (instead of having to borrow it) he could make a profit. Let's go through the math. Suppose I own 100 ounces gold and want to execute the trade. \n\n1)\tWe sell my 100 ounces at $1,300, pocketing $130,000 and deposit the proceeds at 2 %.\n2)\tWe buy a futures contract for 100 ounces 12-months out.\n\n12-months later…\n\n3)\tOur dollar deposit has grown into $132,600 (1.02*$130,000). \n4)\tWith the USD funds we can take delivery to buy back my 100 ounces. The total price to pay is, \n\n100 * 1,248 = $124,800 \n\nNow we have some profit,\n\n$132,600 - $124,800 = $7,800\n\nSo, did we really make a \"risk-free\" profit? If you think about it, what we did is sell gold and buy it back after 12 months. From another angle, we lend it out for 12 months and made $7,800. But if we had lend gold out directly in the lease market at the prevailing rate (6 %) we would have made exactly the same amount of dollars. \n\nOften gold loans are settled in dollars. At the start of the loan the amount of dollars agreed as interest is the gold interest multiplied by the spot price. If we had lend out 100 ounces at 6 % the gold interest would be 6 ounces times $1,300 is $7,800.    \n\n100 * 0.06 * 1300 = $7,800\n\nIf one owns gold and the gold futures curve is in backwardation, the profit to be made by selling spot and buying forward will be exactly the same as leasing one's gold out directly. Both trades boil down to the same time thing: lending gold out. We know that lending out money comes with the risk of default for which the lender is compensated with interest. In this post we've seen that it doesn't make a difference if one lends out money (gold) directly through the lease market or indirectly through the futures market. \n\nThe argument that gold backwardation shouldn't happen because it should be arbitraged (risk-free) away is not true, because the futures curve simply reflects interest rates. \n\nIf you look at the futures curve of the Indian Rupee, denominated in USD, http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/emerging-market/indian-rupee.html you'll see backwardation simply because the Indian Rupee interest rate is higher than LIBOR. \n\nIn conclusion, there's nothing unusual about currencies in backwardation in my opinion.",
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koosjansenreceived 1.833 SBD, 0.922 SP author reward for @koosjansen / should-gold-be-in-contango-or-backwardation
2018/03/11 13:01:12
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2018/03/06 22:41:06
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2018/03/06 21:53:30
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2018/03/06 20:18:30
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2018/03/06 20:16:57
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2018/03/06 11:17:42
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2018/03/06 08:36:30
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bodyNice article. Thanks
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2018/03/06 08:35:42
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2018/03/05 22:56:30
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2018/03/05 22:26:42
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bodyI think you will enjoy it! It is generally a positive environment and there could be a lot more gold experts on here as of now it is more crypto people. Welcome!
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2018/03/05 22:25:45
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2018/03/05 22:23:24
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2018/03/05 22:23:21
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parent permlinkre-koosjansen-is-the-price-of-gold-suppressed-20180305t221911704z
authorkoosjansen
permlinkre-goldmatters-re-koosjansen-is-the-price-of-gold-suppressed-20180305t222251923z
title
body@@ -50,17 +50,17 @@ teemit i -d +s the fut
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2018/03/05 22:23:06
parent author
parent permlinkgold
authorkoosjansen
permlinkis-the-price-of-gold-suppressed
titleIs The Price Of Gold Suppressed?
bodySuppression of the gold price has been a much-debated topic in the gold space. In all corners of the community analyses can be read that allege the metal is way cheaper that it should be. But is this true? First of all, we must distinguish between manipulation, which can be up or down but is always short-term noise, and suppression, long term downward pressure. The former has been proven time and again, but is not of much interest to me (a long term hodler of gold). The latter is the holy grail. To know if the price is suppressed we need hard-core proof, nothing less. Zero Hedge published a piece the other day that states, 'It's Not A "Conspiracy Theory": Here's How Central Banks Actively Suppress The Price Of Gold'. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-04/its-not-conspiracy-theory-heres-how-central-banks-actively-suppress-price-gold Is this finally the proof we've been waiting for? Yes and no. The article on Zero Hedge is about 'gold swaps', which are more or less gold loans, by central banks. (For more info on gold swaps read: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/gofo-and-the-gold-wholesale-market/.) Surely, when central banks lend out their gold, supply in the open market is increased and the price will fall. There's just one detail that is often neglected. Loans do not extend into eternity. The moment a gold loan is issued the price will get hammered. But what happens when the loans are repaid? Gold lending (mostly by Western) central banks is said to really have kicked off in the late 1980s - although, admittedly, I don't have the exact data myself. Throughout the 1990s the gold price, indeed, was relatively low. See for yourself in the chart below. ![Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 10.30.30 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmS4Sp8HGKmaoYazB8CKhx1yeQDZwGRXSqxDiz4soi8KhG/Screen%20Shot%202018-03-05%20at%2010.30.30%20PM.png) In the new millennia, however, central banks started to reverse their course and stopped lending. Data by GFMS shows that since 2001 loans (leases) have been declining. And in the chart above we see that around then the gold price has been increasing. ![Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 8.20.47 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdKYe3MbNei1DU54zMFNaAWBzuQRHXwkt8Ejooh8u7uqh/Screen%20Shot%202018-03-05%20at%208.20.47%20PM.png) So, lending out gold by central banks has suppressed the price of gold, the question is, to what extent is that currently happening? At this moment I think not many central banks are lending metal out. The Dutch central bank, for example, has stated it ceased lending gold completely in 2009, of course due to the financial crisis in 08. If central banks are covertly lending gold I'm still investigating. Although gold lending is important to keep an eye on, at this point I don't think central banks have many thousands of tonnes on lease. Other suppression tricks that ZeroHedge mentioned will be covered in a next steem!
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      "title": "Is The Price Of Gold Suppressed?",
      "body": "Suppression of the gold price has been a much-debated topic in the gold space. In all corners of the community analyses can be read that allege the metal is way cheaper that it should be. But is this true? \n\nFirst of all, we must distinguish between manipulation, which can be up or down but is always short-term noise, and suppression, long term downward pressure. The former has been proven time and again, but is not of much interest to me (a long term hodler of gold). The latter is the holy grail.   \n\nTo know if the price is suppressed we need hard-core proof, nothing less. Zero Hedge published a piece the other day that states, 'It's Not A \"Conspiracy Theory\": Here's How Central Banks Actively Suppress The Price Of Gold'. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-04/its-not-conspiracy-theory-heres-how-central-banks-actively-suppress-price-gold Is this finally the proof we've been waiting for? Yes and no. \n\nThe article on Zero Hedge is about 'gold swaps', which are more or less gold loans, by central banks. (For more info on gold swaps read: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/gofo-and-the-gold-wholesale-market/.) Surely, when central banks lend out their gold, supply in the open market is increased and the price will fall. There's just one detail that is often neglected. \n\nLoans do not extend into eternity. The moment a gold loan is issued the price will get hammered. But what happens when the loans are repaid? Gold lending (mostly by Western) central banks is said to really have kicked off in the late 1980s - although, admittedly, I don't have the exact data myself. Throughout the 1990s the gold price, indeed, was relatively low. See for yourself in the chart below.\n\n![Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 10.30.30 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmS4Sp8HGKmaoYazB8CKhx1yeQDZwGRXSqxDiz4soi8KhG/Screen%20Shot%202018-03-05%20at%2010.30.30%20PM.png) \n\nIn the new millennia, however, central banks started to reverse their course and stopped lending. Data by GFMS shows that since 2001 loans (leases) have been declining. And in the chart above we see that around then the gold price has been increasing.  \n\n![Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 8.20.47 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdKYe3MbNei1DU54zMFNaAWBzuQRHXwkt8Ejooh8u7uqh/Screen%20Shot%202018-03-05%20at%208.20.47%20PM.png)    \n \nSo, lending out gold by central banks has suppressed the price of gold, the question is, to what extent is that currently happening? At this moment I think not many central banks are lending metal out. The Dutch central bank, for example, has stated it ceased lending gold completely in 2009, of course due to the financial crisis in 08. If central banks are covertly lending gold I'm still investigating. \n\nAlthough gold lending is important to keep an eye on, at this point I don't think central banks have many thousands of tonnes on lease. \n\nOther suppression tricks that ZeroHedge mentioned will be covered in a next steem!",
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2018/03/05 22:22:51
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authorkoosjansen
permlinkre-goldmatters-re-koosjansen-is-the-price-of-gold-suppressed-20180305t222251923z
title
bodyThanks! I'm just playing around here. Seeing if Steemit id the future ;-)
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2018/03/05 22:20:15
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2018/03/05 22:19:27
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parent permlinkis-the-price-of-gold-suppressed
authorgoldmatters
permlinkre-koosjansen-is-the-price-of-gold-suppressed-20180305t221911704z
title
body@@ -17,18 +17,17 @@ I humbl -ed +y offer s
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2018/03/05 22:19:15
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2018/03/05 22:19:12
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parent permlinkis-the-price-of-gold-suppressed
authorgoldmatters
permlinkre-koosjansen-is-the-price-of-gold-suppressed-20180305t221911704z
title
bodyThanks Koos! May I humbled offer some unsolicited advice? If you use all 5 tags your article will receive more exposure. Looking forward to more orginal content here on steemit from you:)
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      "body": "Thanks Koos! May I humbled offer some unsolicited advice? If you use all 5 tags your article will receive more exposure. Looking forward to more orginal content here on steemit from you:)",
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2018/03/05 22:12:51
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2018/03/05 22:11:57
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2018/03/05 22:05:24
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2018/03/05 22:01:09
parent author
parent permlinkgold
authorkoosjansen
permlinkis-the-price-of-gold-suppressed
titleIs The Price Of Gold Suppressed?
bodySuppression of the gold price has been a much-debated topic in the gold space. In all corners of the community analyses can be read that allege the metal is way cheaper that it should be. But is this true? First of all, we must distinguish between manipulation, which can be up or down but is always short-term noise, and suppression, long term downward pressure. The former has been proven time and again, but is not of much interest to me (a long term hodler of gold). The latter is the holy grail. To know if the price is suppressed we need hard-core proof, nothing less. Zero Hedge published a piece the other day that states, 'It's Not A "Conspiracy Theory": Here's How Central Banks Actively Suppress The Price Of Gold'. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-04/its-not-conspiracy-theory-heres-how-central-banks-actively-suppress-price-gold Is this finally the proof we've been waiting for? Yes and no. The article on Zero Hedge is about 'gold swaps', which are more or less gold loans, by central banks. (For more info on gold swaps read: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/gofo-and-the-gold-wholesale-market/.) Surely, when central banks lend out their gold, supply in the open market is increased and the price will fall. There's just one detail that is often neglected. Loans do not extend into eternity. The moment a gold loan is issued the price will get hammered. But what happens when the loans are repaid? Gold lending (mostly by Western) central banks is said to really have kicked off in the late 1980s - although, admittedly, I don't have the exact data myself. Throughout the 1990s the gold price, indeed, was relatively low. See for yourself in the chart below. ![Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 10.30.30 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmS4Sp8HGKmaoYazB8CKhx1yeQDZwGRXSqxDiz4soi8KhG/Screen%20Shot%202018-03-05%20at%2010.30.30%20PM.png) In the new millennia, however, central banks started to reverse their course and stopped lending. Data by GFMS shows that since 2001 loans (leases) have been declining. And in the chart above we see that around then the gold price has been increasing. ![Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 8.20.47 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdKYe3MbNei1DU54zMFNaAWBzuQRHXwkt8Ejooh8u7uqh/Screen%20Shot%202018-03-05%20at%208.20.47%20PM.png) So, lending out gold by central banks has suppressed the price of gold, the question is, to what extent is that currently happening? At this moment I think not many central banks are lending metal out. The Dutch central bank, for example, has stated it ceased lending gold completely in 2009, of course due to the financial crisis in 08. If central banks are covertly lending gold I'm still investigating. Although gold lending is important to keep an eye on, at this point I don't think central banks have many thousands of tonnes on lease. Other suppression tricks that ZeroHedge mentioned will be covered in a next steem!
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      "body": "Suppression of the gold price has been a much-debated topic in the gold space. In all corners of the community analyses can be read that allege the metal is way cheaper that it should be. But is this true? \n\nFirst of all, we must distinguish between manipulation, which can be up or down but is always short-term noise, and suppression, long term downward pressure. The former has been proven time and again, but is not of much interest to me (a long term hodler of gold). The latter is the holy grail.   \n\nTo know if the price is suppressed we need hard-core proof, nothing less. Zero Hedge published a piece the other day that states, 'It's Not A \"Conspiracy Theory\": Here's How Central Banks Actively Suppress The Price Of Gold'. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-04/its-not-conspiracy-theory-heres-how-central-banks-actively-suppress-price-gold Is this finally the proof we've been waiting for? Yes and no. \n\nThe article on Zero Hedge is about 'gold swaps', which are more or less gold loans, by central banks. (For more info on gold swaps read: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/gofo-and-the-gold-wholesale-market/.) Surely, when central banks lend out their gold, supply in the open market is increased and the price will fall. There's just one detail that is often neglected. \n\nLoans do not extend into eternity. The moment a gold loan is issued the price will get hammered. But what happens when the loans are repaid? Gold lending (mostly by Western) central banks is said to really have kicked off in the late 1980s - although, admittedly, I don't have the exact data myself. Throughout the 1990s the gold price, indeed, was relatively low. See for yourself in the chart below.\n\n![Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 10.30.30 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmS4Sp8HGKmaoYazB8CKhx1yeQDZwGRXSqxDiz4soi8KhG/Screen%20Shot%202018-03-05%20at%2010.30.30%20PM.png) \n\nIn the new millennia, however, central banks started to reverse their course and stopped lending. Data by GFMS shows that since 2001 loans (leases) have been declining. And in the chart above we see that around then the gold price has been increasing.  \n\n![Screen Shot 2018-03-05 at 8.20.47 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdKYe3MbNei1DU54zMFNaAWBzuQRHXwkt8Ejooh8u7uqh/Screen%20Shot%202018-03-05%20at%208.20.47%20PM.png)    \n \nSo, lending out gold by central banks has suppressed the price of gold, the question is, to what extent is that currently happening? At this moment I think not many central banks are lending metal out. The Dutch central bank, for example, has stated it ceased lending gold completely in 2009, of course due to the financial crisis in 08. If central banks are covertly lending gold I'm still investigating. \n\nAlthough gold lending is important to keep an eye on, at this point I don't think central banks have many thousands of tonnes on lease. \n\nOther suppression tricks that ZeroHedge mentioned will be covered in a next steem!",
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2018/03/04 16:24:27
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2018/03/04 16:07:21
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2018/03/04 16:00:03
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2018/03/04 15:28:18
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2018/03/04 15:28:03
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2018/03/04 13:25:48
voteropportunity4u
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2018/03/04 13:01:12
parent author
parent permlinkgold
authorkoosjansen
permlinkshould-gold-be-in-contango-or-backwardation
titleShould gold be in contango or backwardation?
bodyMany commentators have written about gold futures contracts and the term structure of gold. I always wonder why the futures price of gold "should" be higher than spot (in contango), while gold in the derivatives markets trades more like a currency than a commodity - gold can be easily lend and borrowed, and has a high stock to flow ratio. So why then should gold's futures price be related to the storage costs? Why not purely by the gold lease rate? This morning I commented on a post by JP Koning about this question. He hasn't responded yet, but you can join the debate here: http://disq.us/p/1qm9yco Drop a comment if you like! ![LBMA.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmV41JGYRa1KGCpxu9ztM2k3jzwx6Tn2engrArMUWUHZ1b/LBMA.png)
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      "body": "Many commentators have written about gold futures contracts and the term structure of gold. I always wonder why the futures price of gold \"should\" be higher than spot (in contango), while gold in the derivatives markets trades more like a currency than a commodity - gold can be easily lend and borrowed, and has a high stock to flow ratio. So why then should gold's futures price be related to the storage costs? Why not purely by the gold lease rate? This morning I commented on a post by JP Koning about this question. He hasn't responded yet, but you can join the debate here: http://disq.us/p/1qm9yco  Drop a comment if you like! \n\n![LBMA.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmV41JGYRa1KGCpxu9ztM2k3jzwx6Tn2engrArMUWUHZ1b/LBMA.png)",
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2018/03/04 12:45:51
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  },
  "posting": {
    "weight_threshold": 1,
    "account_auths": [],
    "key_auths": [
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        "STM56kn9mSNzZ5pFnWUPYUyE5JeY8GUYT35Nqa1HJDzvv6yXVzhDp",
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  "memo": "STM6yQcFMFZFcQnHBTuVCiR5YZoLQwDoBdCVHdJ7EuXWYVyQQSau2"
}

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