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      "author": "steemitboard",
      "body": "Congratulations @jetorz! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@jetorz/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@jetorz) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=jetorz)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "![python.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVoe73a8b4SoFRNSdzAX3HGmeuYUCRuDtxgan219NDXBV/python.png)\n\n文：张利东  \n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n# 1. 缘起\n\n终于受不了用了五年都没做过优化的Mac，今天重装了一次系统。正好借着这个机会整理一下电脑，里面杂七杂八的文件太多了。生活需要断舍离，文件管理应如是。\n\n# 2. 分析\n\n[Alfred](https://www.alfredapp.com/)是Spotlight的增强版，是Mac必备。付费版功能更多，不过目前没有工作，能省就省，等牛市赚到钱一定买一个……\n\n既然已经不再工作，Office自然就不是必须了。所以不用再买昂贵的微软Office，[Apache OpenOffice](https://www.openoffice.org/)足矣。\n\n自从进入币圈，各种私钥助记词让人心惊胆战的，[Enpass](https://www.enpass.io/)就成了必备工具。有了她，再也不用担心密码私钥之类丢失啦。\n\n当年百盘大战，现在真正活下来的，也就是[坚果云](https://www.jianguoyun.com/)和[百度网盘](https://pan.baidu.com/)了。坚果云用来存放重要文件，百度网盘用来搜集和共享一些资料，各取所长。\n\n一直奇怪为什么Mac系统为什么自己不把窗口管理做的好点，毕竟窗口是我们和电脑交互最频繁的界面了。[Magnet for Mac](http://magnet.crowdcafe.com/)解决了窗口管理的问题，配合快捷键操作如行云流水。\n\n[Teambition](https://www.teambition.com/)是从刘润老师那里淘到的。她本来是做团队协作的，我没有团队，就把她当成了日程管理助手，代替了之前的[Toodledo](https://www.toodledo.com/)。她在很多方面做得比Toodledo都要好，但创业公司的麻烦就在于长久性，希望不要一段时间后又得重换。\n\n*****\n\n说完了应用工具，下面再着重谈谈开发工具。\n\n业余选手选择开发工具，应以够用为本，无需太多专业级别的配置。比如开发工具，选[Visual Studio Code](https://code.visualstudio.com/)足以，无需搬出厚重的[Visual Studio](https://visualstudio.microsoft.com/)。\n\n[Dash](https://kapeli.com/dash)何止是有用，简直是必须。免费版不够，还需要购买付费版才过瘾。\n\n[Git](https://git-scm.com/)肯定是要装的。Mac下不用再到官网上下载，打开Terminal，输入`git`，系统就会提示安装命令行工具了。\n\n> 好东东：[GitHub Git 备忘单](https://services.github.com/on-demand/downloads/zh_CN/github-git-cheat-sheet/)\n\nMac自带的Python是2.7版的，当然不能满足要求。我喜欢[Anaconda](https://anaconda.org/)的3.x版，一下搞定很多第三方包，包括pandas和matplotlib。\n\n*****\n\n最后，美好生活少不了电影，[IINA](https://lhc70000.github.io/iina/zh-cn/)号称现代的 macOS 视频播放器，使用起来的确很赞，推荐。\n\n# 3. 总结\n\n今天就着重装Mac的机会整理了一下自己的装机瑞士军刀，发现好工具无需太多，十来个就可以涵盖绝大多数工作了。\n\n把他们整理了一下放在了GitHub上，点击原文链接可以查看。\n\n# 4. 参考文献\n\n- [Mac app list - Github](https://github.com/jetorz/macapp)，张利东",
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      "body": "![value.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXnmrs796THdxtfbHHMS6QGX23rQjVWT5X8bdThVTo7P6/value.png)\n\n文：张利东  \n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n# 缘起\n\n刘润老师在42岁生日这天写了篇生日感悟，里面提到的一句话挺有意思\n\n> 当你把钱作为目标的时候，你是得不到它的。  \n> 你只有把另外一个东西作为目标的时候，钱会随之而来，比如说你把为别人获得价值这件事情作为目标。  \n> 你要始终记得，赚钱不是因为你去想的这个念头，而是你正在做的事情值钱。\n\n大道至简，这本来这本来就应该是常识，偏偏常识是最容易被忘记的。\n\n每一个想赚钱的人，在思考问题的时候不妨都先问问自己，这件事情是不是真的有价值，尤其是不是真的对他人有价值。\n\n只有给别人贡献了价值，才有可能得到收获。\n\n类似的，在思考虚拟币的时候，不要太多考略币价，而应该多从币本身的价值出发去思考，才能最终摆脱「一买就跌、一卖就涨」的韭菜命运。\n\n# 参考文献\n\n- [写给42岁生日，也写给每一位想要靠双手改变命运的年轻人](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6ecjaKriUwWyLYs1QERkHQ)，刘润",
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      "body": "![sell.jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdARMKpdfYJq3ELki85oz4fZ2sRNapzvs4rWsb42EgkrZ/sell.jpeg)\n\n文：张利东  \n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n# 1. 缘起\n\n利弗莫尔在《股票大作手操盘术》里面讲到\n\n> 投机者不得不充当自己的保险经纪人，确保投机事业持续下去只有一条路可走：小心守护账户里的资本，决不允许亏损大到足以威胁未来操作的程度。留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。\n\n他在谈止损，我却在想收益。投资新手最大的一个问题，可能就是学不会「卖出」了。买入很简单，选择好的标的逢低建仓即可。但什么时候卖出却没那么容易。卖早了不合适，担了风险却没享受到相应的收益；卖晚了更亏，熊市不言底，一个大跌就可能把之前的利润全吞掉。\n\n# 2. 分析\n\n有人可能说，涨多了就卖总归是好的。利弗莫尔却很不认同这种做法\n\n> 绝不要因为某只股票看起来价格过高而卖出它。你也许看着一只股票从10美元上涨到50美元，认定它的成交价已经高得太离谱了。这个时候，我们恰恰应当研究判断有没有任何因素可能阻止它在盈利状况良好、企业管理层优秀的条件下，从50美元开始，继续上涨到150美元。很多人看到某只股票已经经历了长期的上涨行情，认为它的价格“看上去太高了”，就抛空这只股票，结果赔光了本金。\n\n想想历史上的比特币，还真是这么回事儿。\n\n查理芒格对这种问题的解决方案是\n\n> 我们偏向于把大量的钱投放在我们不用再另外作决策的地方。如果你因为一样东西的价值被低估而购买了它，那么当它的价格上涨到你预期的水平时，你就必须考虑把它卖掉。那很难。但是，如果你能购买几个伟大的公司，那么你就可以安坐下来啦。那是很好的事情。\n\n这是非常好的方案，纯投资的思路。但我们总是会想要更多的收益，比如投机的资本利得，所以适当的在别人贪婪的时候高点出货还是必要的。茫茫书海中寻找，终于在邓普顿先生那里找到了方法\n\n> 如果最后一批卖家就要退出市场了，那么在他们卖完以后，价格还会跌很多吗？当然不会。最后一批卖家要退出市场的时候，你必须在一旁睁大眼睛等着买入。一旦所有的卖家都离去了，从理论上来说，市场上就只剩下买家了。商品又会是怎样的情况呢？它们之前一直表现良好，现在最后一批买家正要进入市场。一旦他们进入，还会有谁再来购买商品并把价格抬高呢？再也没有人了。一旦股票市场上的最后一批卖家变成了商品市场的最后一批买家，商品市场和股票市场就会立即角色互换，这不应该被视为巧合。这体现了逆向投资法中惯用的基本原理。\n\n需求制造价格。就是因为买方和卖方的需求不一致，最终才会在市场上形成交易。当市场极度乐观的时候，会有大量的买家涌入，从而进一步推高价格；等最后一位买家都买入以后，价格就再也没有办法继续上涨，那么随之而来的，就只能是下跌。那么，在最后一位买家买入前后，就是最佳的卖出时机。\n\n这有点想抄底逃顶的意思，一般来说是做不到的。但从需求的角度来考虑，还是能得到一些参考的。比如EOS，主网启动之前需要竞选超级节点，他们对EOS的需求是最旺盛的，所以EOS价格一路上涨。但主网启动以后，所有买家该买的都买完了，需求没有了，自然会引发大跌。\n\n![EOS-main-net.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ2q2WicQ2srrcec9JhywQzWEs9Ew5ygHAvTbFhR2iBjz/EOS-main-net.png)\n\n历史数据完全吻合。\n\n# 3. 总结\n\n所以，当我们谈「卖得好」的时候，我们可以考虑的方案有\n\n- 选择好的投资标的，做到「无需考虑卖出」；\n- 思考市场需求及买卖力量的博弈，最需求降低之前卖出；\n\n那么问题来了，现在的市场，应该怎么操作呢？得挨个理理了。\n\n# 4. 参考文献\n\n- [《股票大作手操盘术》](https://book.douban.com/subject/19952930/)，杰西·利弗莫尔\n- [《穷查理宝典》](https://book.douban.com/subject/26831789/)，查理·芒格\n- [《邓普顿教你逆向投资》](https://book.douban.com/subject/5314887/)，劳伦C•邓普顿",
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      "body": "![leek.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWaQ4LxopadALfhedNp9jNxftG4JpVeJcpLkTbGX4HaXZ/leek.png)\n\n文：张利东  \n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n山竹肆虐，足难出户，倒是读书好日子。用一个晚上的时间，读完了李笑来老师的这本《韭菜的自我修养》。\n\n> [《韭菜的自我修养》](https://book.douban.com/subject/30314653/)\n\n*****\n\n对李老师的感情，真是五味杂陈一言难尽。\n\n早先年读他的书和博客便不提了。2015年底他突然出现在公众领域开始高调做事，写公众号、创办七年社群之类，我都是亲历者。花2555元买一本免费电子书，加入七年社群，开始学习编程、读原版书、写公众号，开始进入币市，买比特币，买PRS和Big，都是拜李老师所教导。\n\n可以说，他给我展开了一个别样的世界。没有他，东哥可能永远也进入不了这个世界。\n\n人就是这么奇怪。分明生活在同样的蓝天下，偏偏过着完全不同的生活，就像身处完全不同的世界一样。不同世界的人，彼此无涉，毫无瓜葛。\n\n> 这个感觉，在周末去参加佛山趁早读书会的线下活动时也很强烈。有人一早从香港出发，从湖北出发，折腾整整一个上午赶过来，就为了得到美女作者曹頔的亲笔签名。在不读书的人看来，这群人简直脑子进水。  \n> 他们却乐在其中。\n\n*****\n\n扯远了，继续回来说李老师。\n\n很有趣的是，自从2017年开始，李老师就频繁曝出各种负面新闻。\n\n- 莫名其妙的关掉了曾经说要一起走七年的新生大学，被指资金链出现问题；\n- 和合作者XDite交恶，在微博上公开开撕；\n- 和硬币资本合伙人易理华交恶，并被易理华在各种场合含沙射影的攻击；\n- 前面还给陈伟星送生日礼物然后就交恶，差点对簿公堂；\n- 弄了个600ETH投资俱乐部，给各投资人推荐投资项目，结果大量破发，甚至跌幅多高达90%+，引发大量争议；\n- 深夜在自家交易所突然上线自己的项目Press One，单日浮动高达90%，大量粉丝被套；\n- 分叉比特币，创造SBTC，大量粉丝购买，半年后SBTC宣布不再继续，自己公开宣布只是友情参与；\n- ……\n\n在他身上，有太多的矛盾。分明早已财务自由，却偏偏趟各种浑水；一方面严格遵纪守法，云币网超额纳税及100%准备金都堪称楷模，另一方面却在国家明令禁止虚拟币ICO募资的情况下生造出IDO/IEO等概念牵头强发虚拟币PRS募资；一方面是比特币信徒，坚持其他支付类虚拟币都是毫无意义的山寨币，另一方面却自己分叉比特币，并利用自身影响力进行宣传，导致购买「笑来比特币」的投资者血本无归，甚至有人跳楼自杀……\n\n直到最后，会客录音突然公布。\n\n直到最后，*主动*辞去杭州区块链产业园相关职务。\n\n*****\n\n曹頔说，一切偶然其实都是必然。回想一下这两年发生的各种事情，其实还真是这么回事儿。\n\n跟着李笑来投资，是因为自己知识的缺乏，以及盲目的信任。但回过头来说，对于缺乏思考力的人，即使没有李笑来，也会有猫笑来狗笑来二宝笑来。所以，被收割是早晚的事儿。\n\n很多老韭菜，其实都是这样一步步走过来的吧。李老师说投资界不是个零和游戏，这我同意。不过这得份两方面说\n\n1. 社会总在进步，所以总体和长期而言，投资是正和游戏；\n2. 但在庄家和韭菜的博弈里，韭菜面临的却是负和游戏。遗憾的是，韭菜永远是被减去的那部分；\n\n那我们怎么定义「割」这件事儿呢？我认同李老师在书中所说的，其实很多时候，亏损的散户的钱只是被市场赚走了，不存在某一个特定的大佬在收割。但是不是总有一些例外\n\n- 因为李老师宣传高价购买SBTC的来粉。后期SBTC干脆停止开发，等于归零；\n- 因网站相关说明购买BIG的来粉。后BIG直接撕毁之前协议，强行兑换成新的平台代币ONE；\n\n那么「割」到底是什么呢？在东哥看来，所谓割，就是高度控盘，同时故意释放虚假消息牟利的一种行为。说简单了是割韭菜，说严重了，是金融诈骗。\n\n*****\n\n回过头来，李笑来的这本书，到底值不值得看呢？豆瓣上有网友评论说\n\n> 没读过，打个一星再说。不买、不发布、不转发。\n\n估计又是一个跟着李老师投机，结果亏得挺惨的一颗韭菜吧。不过这种态度东哥倒是不认同。所谓不因人废言，用在这里再合适不过。**如果觉得是被李老师收割了，那就说明李老师更高明，不趁机跟着学习长进还等啥？如果觉得不是被李老师收割的，又为何拒绝跟他学习**？\n\n很多韭菜的问题在于，对各种概念没有一个准确的定义。比如「被收割」这个概念，很多人觉得只要花了钱就是被收割了。要照这个定义，上学是被收割，提高认知也是被收割——只要不是类似吃喝玩乐之类的消费就都是被收割。更进一步就变成，连吃喝玩乐也是被收割了，因为别人赚取了一部分利润。\n\n这就不是可怜，简直是可悲了。\n\n李老师这本书挺好，我看了以后感觉颇有收益，很遗憾自己没能早点读到。有些时机就是过去了，比如在牛市的尾巴入场资产大幅缩水之类，现在即使知道不应该着急进入，要慢慢买逐步减仓之类也晚了。但看书的过程中引发的很多思考，相信对以后的投资还是挺有帮助的。\n\n*****\n\n![DongTalks.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPacLagSZZtc74ov2Nwr3e8XgiMaSD8ZR6ZZHD3HX7Qtd/DongTalks.jpg)",
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      "body": "“我对 EOS 的态度也是类似。就目前而言，尚未有能超越 EOS 的基础设施。EOS 万一成功，其币价必然继续飙涨；万一不成功，石墨烯底层技术已经比较成熟，币价会跌但也有限。所以虽然概率未知，但成功的期望大于失败的期望，EOS 依然颇具投资价值。”\n\n这就是题主的看法。",
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      "body": "![strange.jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTcQNuuR55cc7qygU3g17kZ42Sj62tmxndHd2X6KJE8Qq/strange.jpeg)\n\n文：张利东\n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n# 1. 缘起\n\n塔勒布先生在[《随机漫步的傻瓜》](https://book.douban.com/subject/10773362/)里面提到一个俄罗斯转盘的思维实验让人很受启迪。\n\n这个实验讲的是，假设一个古怪的大亨提出玩俄罗斯转盘的游戏，把可装6颗子弹的左轮手枪里面装一颗子弹，然后对准你的头扣扳机。如果是空发，你就赚1000万美元；如果是实发，就中弹身亡。\n\n每一颗子弹都是一个历史，每个历史都有1/6的可能性。所谓现实，是最终发生的那一个，比如中奖或中弹。\n\n# 2. 思考\n\n这个故事可以引出以下几个思考点。\n\n## 2.1 幸运的傻瓜\n\n现实发生的很多事情其实是随机的。每一次扣扳机都会导出一段历史，每段历史具有相同的概率。现实发生的，从来都不一定是有因果的必然。遗憾的是我们只能生活在其中一种可能里面，所以无法观察到另外五段历史里，世界会是怎样的。\n\n不仅未发生的事情难以被观察，有时候即使事情真正发生了也会难以观察，因为失败人士往往会被人忽略和遗忘，而成功者的故事却到处流传。这就是所谓的[幸存者偏差](https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Jg8E-_UdtVeo56h9tUIflw)，也被称为死人不说话。\n\n这就要求我们做投资决策时，不仅要考虑已经发生的情况，还要考虑虽然没有发生、但有可能发生的情况，以及虽然发生了、却由于种种原因很难被观察到的情况。所谓考虑全面，大抵就是这个意思。\n\n所以看别人赢了1000万也不用羡慕。一来有人即使赢了也不过是个差点死掉的幸运傻瓜，二来真要自己上结果就不一定是怎么回事儿了。\n\n## 2.2 做好预案\n\n投资总会有各种意外可能发生，这就要求我们必须做好风险控制。其中一个很重要的方面，就是提前为各种可能的情况做好预案。比如玩俄罗斯转盘的时候，先戴好防弹头盔，就算不幸中弹，也不过是个脑震荡而已。\n\n投资如果一切顺利应该怎么做？利益应该如何分配？中间可能出现的问题有哪些？需要为之作什么准备？万一失败会有什么样的结果？怎样为可能的败局收场？最忌讳的，是以为一切都将顺利，投资终会成功。以这种心态去投资，即使侥幸赢了几局，最终也难免一败涂地。\n\n有人听说数字币投资能赚钱，就把大笔资金投入币市，谁料币市直接跌掉70%，损失惨重。这就是考虑不周全、没有做好相应预案。投资的世界没有只涨不跌的故事，所以进入市场的时候，至少应该问问自己，如果涨了怎么退场，如果跌了怎么补仓，极端情况万一归零自己是否能承受，从而决定资金占比、入场比例等。\n\n所以每看到新入场的小白直接满仓进场，然后等着大涨时，就忍不住想叹气。\n\n## 2.3 期望与概率\n\n投资模型中，期望的权重大于概率。从概率上讲，玩俄罗斯转盘的胜率是5/6，败率是1/6，是比好生意；但胜了不过赢点钱，败了却会丧命，失败的期望值远大于胜利的期望值，所以不是个好投资。概率再重要，抵不过期望。\n\n李笑来先生谈到当年投资比特币的时候也说，如果把比特币类比为世界银行，币值就相当于这家银行的市值，算下来成长空间上万倍。所以哪怕只有1%成功的概率，也值得玩玩。\n\n我对 EOS 的态度也是类似。就目前而言，尚未有能超越 EOS 的基础设施。EOS 万一成功，其币价必然继续飙涨；万一不成功，石墨烯底层技术已经比较成熟，币价会跌但也有限。所以虽然概率未知，但成功的期望大于失败的期望，EOS 依然颇具投资价值。\n\n# 3. 总结\n\n今天我们从俄罗斯转盘的思维游戏出发，讨论了三个投资方面的思考\n\n1. 投资需要考虑全面，考虑所有可能的情况。仅考虑最有利情况，与赌徒无异；即使获胜，也不过是个幸运的傻瓜；\n2. 投资需要为各种情况提前做好预案。一切顺利应该如何，中间的可能意外如何处理，万一失败如何面对等。为此我们需要做好资金配置，灵活调整仓位，并随时依时而变；\n3. 投资中期望大于概率。哪怕某投资胜率偏低但期望值极大，就可以考虑玩玩；而赢得有限、亏则无限的游戏，永远要避而远之；\n\n其实还可以引申出一个思考，就是永远不要让自己沦落到必须孤注一掷赌一把的境地。所以远离俄罗斯转盘，远离传销盘，远离赌和毒。\n\n色么，还是可以考虑的，嘿嘿。\n\n# 4. 检索词\n\n随机 投资 运气 期望 概率 俄罗斯转盘\n\n- [《随机漫步的傻瓜》](https://book.douban.com/subject/10773362/)，纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布\n\n*****\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPacLagSZZtc74ov2Nwr3e8XgiMaSD8ZR6ZZHD3HX7Qtd/DongTalks.jpg)",
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      "body": "文：张利东\n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n![hand.jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmU4ELYFtif2dAVGjAysENkHkMLJKiCuBcvC9VQ1xeN4DV/hand.jpeg)\n\n# 1. 内容\n\n撒普博士在《通向财务自由之路》里面提了一个问题\n\n> 当市场做横向移动时（根据很多估计，85%的时间里会做横向移动），我该怎么办？\n\n初入投资市场的小白，都希望自己的决策会马上有结果。如果有收益，最好马上看到成果；如果有损失，最好马上知道结果，好根据结果决定下一步行动。市场却早晚会教会他，这种即时反馈通常不会出现，绝大多数时候市场是处于横盘状态，没有明显的上升趋势，也没有明显的下跌趋势。作为投资者，这时候最需要的，就是耐心。耐心的等待结果，而且最好是一个较长时间后的结果。就像查理芒格说的\n\n> 你需要的不是大量的行动，而是极大的耐心。你必须坚持原则，等到机会来临，你就用力去抓住他们。  \n\n这就是投资的现实。想要玩投资，第一步就是要接受投资市场大部分时候是没有机会的现实，我们能做的只能是耐心的等待；或者更积极一些，就是在横盘期间，该干嘛干嘛，反正不要总想着要进行一些什么投资操作，否则就容易陷入过度投资的陷阱。过度投资常常会导致\n\n- 在不合适的时候出手，导致损失；\n- 为一些微小的机会动用资金，结果大机会到来时却没有办法投资；\n- 把太多精力放在注定没什么收益的机会上，浪费了寻找真正大机会的时间；\n\n想投资获胜，就要极度的专注于耐心，去寻找真正的大好机会。机会永远不会只有一次，错过了以后再也没有；但机会也不会总有。她只会在合适的时间合适的地点与合适的人相遇。在好机会没来之前，与其心浮气躁，不如多为她的到来做些知识储备和心理建设。\n\n才不至于等机会真的来的时候自己却没能力牵起她的手。\n\n# 2. 参考文献\n\n- [《通向财务自由之路》](https://book.douban.com/subject/5917261/)，范 K.撒普（Van K. Tharp）\n- [《穷查理宝典》](https://book.douban.com/subject/26831789/)，查理·芒格\n\n# 3. 检索词\n\n横盘 机会\n\n*****\n\n![DongTalks.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPacLagSZZtc74ov2Nwr3e8XgiMaSD8ZR6ZZHD3HX7Qtd/DongTalks.jpg)",
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      "body": "![interest.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdP1RnLsNpj9JvN7XZFPnug5FCRTjpynF7KdwwkNFhdjc/interest.png)\n\n文：张利东\n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n# 1. 利息起源\n\n关于利息的起源，有两种不同的说法。\n\n一种是基于未知的补偿。延迟消费会有未知的风险存在。今年的100块钱是100块钱，延迟到明年消费，就需要面对这一年间可能出现的意外，比如战争、自然灾害、意外交通事故等，导致无法消费造成损失。由于这种不确定性的存在，人们更倾向于现在消费而不是延期消费。所以想要借款，就需要让出借人延期消费，就需要给出一定的补偿，这个现货与期货之间的补偿，就是利息。\n\n从这个角度讲，利息其实是未来对现在的贴现，而不是自动长出来的。资产本身是不会生长的。\n\n另外一种说法是基于农业时代主要的生产要素出借衍生出来的。农业时代最重要的生产要素是牛，借出去的牛是会下小牛犊的，所以今年借出去10头牛，明年归还的时候必然是多于10头牛，因为要把小牛犊考虑进去。所以说生产要素是有增长能力的，这种对增长能力在金融上的对应，就是利息。\n\n从这个角度讲，利息是资产自然生长的结果，与之前的结论恰好相反。\n\n东哥说，利息到底起源于什么，让专家们去研究吧。对我们投资而言，现在的要素和未来的要素之间，就是有需要一个差额来弥补，这个弥补就是利息，利息的百分比，即「利息/现值」%，就是利率。\n\n# 2. 基准利率\n\n各国央行会针对当前经济发展现状，对现行金融活动给出一个基础利率的指导，这个指导就是基准利率。央行通过基准利率，可以对社会信贷产生影响。\n\n比如降低基准利率，意味着资金成本降低，于是社会投资意愿加强，可以刺激经济。加息则意味着资金成本加增高，社会投资意愿会相应减弱，可以收缩经济。\n\n经济过热、出现较严重的通货膨胀或泡沫的时候，央行就可以提高基准利率。这时候贷款成本就会提高，企业就会通过减少产出等方式减少支出，贷款也会相应减少，于是经济开始减速。而经济较为低迷的时候，央行可以通过降低基准利率来减少社会资金使用成本，于是大家就开始多贷款进行投资，于是经济开始复苏上行。\n\n这之间分寸的拿捏，很考校执政者的能力。利率太低、经济过热，就会形成很大的泡沫，最后泡沫破裂的时候，就会引发经济危机。2008年的次贷危机，就是因为美联储的利率太低，金融机构又层层打包蔓延形成的。\n\n利率太高，又会引发通货紧缩，很可能形成经济停滞。1992年南巡之后，我国经济开始急速发展，但很快经济就过热，通货膨胀率高达 24%。为了应对这样的恶性膨胀，1993年到1995年间，我国基准利率从8%一直提高到13.5%。高达70%的加息，加上商业银行的层层放大，结果造成了经济的硬着陆，企业不愿意贷款，工厂没办法开工，工地到处都是烂尾楼，经济发展几乎停滞。\n\n这时候就需要再次调低利率。但如果经济停滞的太严重，降低到0%也没有达到预期效果的话，就会引发经济大萧条。这种大萧条的周期大概是百年左右一次，历史上曾多次重演。\n\n# 3. 思考\n\n宏观经济是如此之难，以至于专业人士、经济学家都很难拿捏的准，普通投资者就更难有较准确的把握了。基准利率就是少数我们可以用来观察宏观经济的一个利器。央行提高基准利率，意味着经济可能减速，可考虑适当减持股票基金，锁定收益；等央行再次降低基准利率的时候，意味着经济可能要加速，可以开始加仓股票基金。\n\n经济运行自有其周期。通过对债务、利率等因素的考量，弄清楚我们身处在一个什么样的周期里，虽然难，但也是每个投资者应该努力的方向。搞投资，微观投资标的和宏观大形势，都需要了解，都需要关注。\n\n> 新浪财经的「中国宏观经济数据」板块能查到很多资料，非常方便。  \n> http://finance.sina.com.cn/mac/#fininfo-3-0-31-2\n\n投资，就是修行啊。\n\n# 4. 参考文献\n\n- 薛兆丰的北大经济学课，薛兆丰\n- 香帅的北大金融学可，香帅\n- [《千年金融史》](https://book.douban.com/subject/27026691/)，威廉·戈兹曼\n- [《经济机器是怎样运行的》](https://open.163.com/movie/2016/6/I/Q/MBPO9ED98_MBPO9S8IQ.html)，瑞·达利欧\n\n> 尤其推荐网易公开课里面的一个视频，瑞·达利欧制作的《经济机器是怎样运行的》，高屋建瓴，让人能从一个更加宏观的角度审视我们的社会和经济。\n\n*****\n\n![2017-08-29-DongTalks.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmParGAiuvV7TssEerVnNw5gq7EKVoBfpJVJbArPK66QZi/2017-08-29-DongTalks.jpg)",
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      "body": "![together-1st.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmU71v8AVntY6UGy8Hua83AJwEfWcL8YiKKGDYpgYwziy6/together-1st.png)\n\n文：张利东\n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n[DCR 一起挖项目发起后](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BMGCS5Acyg7q9r3XIG_IZQ)，社群朋友相应很积极。一个月的募集期里，共募集到将近 4000 币。从今天开始，项目正式进入封闭期。封闭期内，不许加入及退出。封闭期共 5 个月，计划于9月10日再次进入开放期。\n\n截止到目前为止，一共挖出 49 个币。考虑到募集期内很多币是后期才打过来，可以考虑乘以 1.5 的系数，未来每月计划可以挖出约 70 个币。暂不考虑复利效应，年化收益率粗估为 70*12/4000=21%。\n\n这个收益比当初预计的要少。主要原因是最近算力大涨，每票单价提升，由早期的82币/票变成了现在的88币/票；投票后收益也有所降低，由早期的1.36币/票变成了现在的1.28币/票。算力由全网控制，所以也是无可奈何的事情，但整体收益肯定是比单挖要高的。\n\n根据参与币数及比例，扣除矿工收益后，本月大致分配如下\n\n![DCR-1st-01.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUQEucU37DFFSXNRfRaXhXoqGwHDf77VjKgZJfy31z1bL/DCR-1st-01.png)\n\n*****\n\n社群经济，适当的信任是必须的，这也是社群活动难以向外拓展的原因。我参与了李笑来先生的风利投资共 10 期。风利投资没有任何正式的合同之类制约，只是投资人在确认要投资后，给李笑来先生的支付宝账号转入相应投资款，然后坐等还本付息。\n\n其实这不算一种好的投资方式。因为是把钱交给别人打点，虽然参与的是股权投资，但投资人除了经济收益，什么都学不到，未免遗憾。但即使这样也有很多人参与的原因，是因为李笑来先生是公众人物，大家愿意相信他肯定能还本付息按约执行，投资是没有风险的。\n\n但对于类似你我这样的普通人，公信力不足以让人放心，虽然联挖很有意义，却也难以扩大，实在是件很遗憾的事情。\n\n*****\n\n![DongTalks.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUMJWi28r8XE67jkMaALu6z4jgduUTm5PhYsU9cKZouBG/DongTalks.jpg)",
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      "body": "![mind.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYwc22rsNey9oYjvXaQsWb1jd9CyjeSh36pkeoAAD2nZ9/mind.png)\n\n文：张利东\n公众号：DongTalks\n\n*****\n\n# 1. 视觉化思维的概念\n\n视觉化思维是指用图形把思维表达出来。无论是文字还是语言，对于一般人都偏抽象。从进化的角度说，人类的大脑更适合识别图像，所以用图像的方式辅助思考，会极大的提升思考质量。\n\n比如我们都学过的中学数学里面，解析几何就是在用图像来说明函数。各种函数都可以在坐标系里用一条曲线或线段来表示。函数曲线是帮助我们理解复杂枯燥的数学概念的一个极重要的武器。我们常提到的复利是个纯数学概念，公式为\n\n![compound-interest-formula.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmb78Wf4VRFGX8QibbKLsy5JHPHzTR7dEYzN6v32gHfu6s/compound-interest-formula.png)\n\n虽然准确，却非常不直观。用函数曲线将其图形化，复利曲线便可直接了当的说明了随着时间的增长，收益会以极快的速度增长这个概念，使其极具冲击性。\n\n![compound-interest.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeTEiRW3YkVu6AH9JaFTZvZWiFBbgVnzJAimAcJJVPjy7/compound-interest.png)\n\n视觉化思维有非常多的工具，其中思维导图是应用范围很广，也非常有效的一个工具。就工具而言，不应太复杂，如果使用成本超过收益，就得不偿失了。思维导图很简单，拿来直接在里面添加节点即可，使用成本很低。一些新的软件，比如 Xmind，还在 Freemind 的基础上进行了拓展，使得思维导图更加具有弹性，非常方便。\n\n我一直对诸如阿拉伯人、犹太人、穆斯林，以及基督教和犹太教之类的概念非常含糊，便索性认真的查了查资料，却发现光看文字越看越乱。于是祭出思维导图大法，就着资料画了一下，感觉清楚了很多。\n\n![Israel-Arab.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQDogQNL7w6TLEmMNTFCzx4aeJYZA2YwAH2ppuswN1f2D/Israel-Arab.png)\n\n# 2. 行为设计\n\n思维导图比较简单，东哥觉得直接拿来用即可，而无需先看什么理论性的书 —— 那部分到了后期想提高的时候再看不晚，现在关键是先用起来。\n\n工具的话我推荐 Xmind。使用简单，功能强大，Mac/Windows/iOS 全平台覆盖。还有一款 Freemind 也不错，早期东哥用这个。\n\n至于类似 MindManager、MindMapper 等付费软件，个人感觉意义不大。价格昂贵，性能提升有限，性价比太低。用盗版的话系统安全性又受影响，得不偿失。\n\n- 下载 Xmind；\n- 找一些一直比较含糊的概念，用思维导图理清其关系；\n- 尝试将思维导图大量应用于生活；\n\n*****\n\n![xmq.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNYmozo1ieny46UgURfHhh4SzgzLBJbv9xC822AqgVgKF/xmq.png)\n\n「行为设计探索」是一个基于行为设计的付费社群，致力于基于对行为的设计，实现从「知」到「行」的跨越，真正做到「知行合一」。点击[原文链接](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWtvn8jOA91iayMBG6D-Ag)了解更多。本文为行为设计第一课。\n\n社群采用分级制，邀请新会员的入会费 50% 奖励邀请人。欢迎扫码加入，让我们一起思考致富，终生成长。\n\n已发布的相关行为设计\n\n- [D246 - 关于「行为设计探索」社群](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWtvn8jOA91iayMBG6D-Ag)\n- [D247 - 行为设计之个人网络形象](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/WuoevHdY-WRXVvLEZFl4TA)\n- [D250 - 行为设计之中美贸易战及美股投资](http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rUk0O79bmPzZ8Og0qfs4Ng)\n\n# 3. 参考文献\n\n* [阿拉伯人 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%98%BF%E6%8B%89%E4%BC%AF%E4%BA%BA)\n* [阿拉伯世界 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%98%BF%E6%8B%89%E4%BC%AF%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C)\n* [犹太人 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8A%B9%E5%A4%AA%E4%BA%BA)\n* [希伯来圣经 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B8%8C%E4%BC%AF%E4%BE%86%E8%81%96%E7%B6%93)\n* [亚伯拉罕诸教 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BA%9E%E4%BC%AF%E6%8B%89%E7%BD%95%E8%AB%B8%E6%95%99)\n* [犹太教 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8A%B9%E5%A4%AA%E6%95%99#cite_ref-1)\n* [弥赛亚 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BD%8C%E8%B3%BD%E4%BA%9E)\n* [正教会 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%AD%A3%E6%95%99%E6%9C%83)\n* [伊斯兰教 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%BC%8A%E6%96%AF%E5%85%B0%E6%95%99)\n* [安拉 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%AE%89%E6%8B%89)\n* [基督教的神 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%9F%BA%E7%9D%A3%E6%95%99%E7%9A%84%E7%A5%9E)\n* [《人类简史》](https://book.douban.com/subject/25985021/)，尤瓦尔·赫拉利\n* [《未来简史》](https://book.douban.com/subject/26943161/)，尤瓦尔·赫拉利\n\n*****\n\n![DongTalks.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUMJWi28r8XE67jkMaALu6z4jgduUTm5PhYsU9cKZouBG/DongTalks.jpg)",
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