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      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"http://www.horizonkinetics.com/images/horizon_kinetics_logo_blue_Small.jpg\"/></p>\n<p>[Originally Published July 2016]</p>\n<p><em>The Problem(s)</em></p>\n<p>Ultra-low interest rates have become a problem for hedge funds. Many hedge fund managers have little or no recollection of the short seller rebate. Nevertheless, there was a time when interest rates were 8% on the short end and a short seller could earn perhaps 75% of the interest generated by the proceeds of a short sale while the funds resided in the custody of the prime broker.</p>\n<p>In the contemporary world, an easy-to-borrow equity for short sale purposes may be inexpensive to borrow but it is still a negative carry, as one must pay the dividend on these shares. In fact, as rates progress ever lower, such dividends become more valuable and the share prices progress ever higher. Such short sales of liquid shares are frequently generators of not insignificant losses.</p>\n<p>Of course, there are smaller capitalization non-dividend paying stocks that do merit short sale. These, however, are generally hard to borrow and quite expensive when they can be borrowed.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>A new risk for the short seller is that in a world of low interest rates, companies that become problematic due to excessive leverage are rescued by low interest rates. If the problems are caused by the incompetence of management, another company may borrow the funds necessary to acquire the problematic company, and do so inexpensively. If no company undertakes to act, the shares of the problematic company might still not decline to a proper valuation, given the circumstances, since it is always <em>possible</em> that some entity might act. There is always the possibility of acquisition by an activist investor, financed by borrowed capital. Finally, if none of the aforementioned would act, it is not uncommon that a private equity fund would.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, the problems of the hedge fund manager are not limited to equities. The problems are much the same with regard to currencies. Just as there are companies with profligate capital allocation policies, there are nations with profligate financial policies. Nations will borrow too much money, they can import more goods than can be paid for by productive resources of the nation, or social liabilities might weigh upon the nation. In any case, the temptation is very strong for the central bank to issue more money to fund the liabilities. This, of course, destroys the value of the currency. This theme appears frequently in the history of finance. Consequently, hedge funds might undertake to sell short a currency.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, at the current time, most nations create money to fund national liabilities. For instance, the creation of the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the euro were intended to prevent a repetition of the history of the Banca D’Italia funding the chronic deficits of the Republic of Italy with money creation and the endless depreciation of the Italian lire. Now the euro is in danger of resembling the Italian lire.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Other nations, such as the United States and Japan, have a similar problem. Which currency will remain stable? Similarly, one could sell short bonds on the theory that interest rates at this low level cannot possibly continue. Nevertheless, as of this writing, the 10-year German government bond yields 1½ basis points. The Japanese 10-year government bond yields 15 basis points. Even the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields only 1.63%.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Selling short bonds at low rates or even negative rates can be dangerous. The iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) has only a 43 basis point yield to maturity. Its weighted average time to maturity is 9.75 years. One might well wonder how it is possible that interest rates could decline any further. In fact, this particular fund contains many bonds with negative yields to maturity. Unfortunately, at ultra-low interest rates, bonds possess incredible convexity characteristics. The IGOV ETF has YTD performance through June 9 of 10.86%. That means it is up 10.86%. Imagine: It is up 10.86% with a 43 basis point yield to maturity. That is incredible. Think of that degree of price volatility in the reverse.</p>\n<p>The modern hedge fund must contend with another invisible adversary: The exchanges lease colocation space in their computer assemblages to any number of algorithmic traders. This group has the so-called “first look” at market activity. Thus, if there are hedge funds with brilliant ideas in the course of implementation, any trading patterns will be identified within nanoseconds and huge pools of capital will be deployed to trade in front of the investment managers with the brilliant ideas.</p>\n<p>Hence, the hedge fund must contend with central banks that manipulate interest rates as well as exchange rates, prime brokers that charge not insignificant sums for securities lending, and exchanges that populate the trading cyberspace with advantageously-informed predatory traders.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If this were not enough, the prime broker is also a banker, in a sense, to hedge funds. In any meaningful market crisis, the prime brokers frequently reduce the margin available to funds. Many hedge fund managers are value investors. During market crises, these investors might discover bargains, but find that the maximum exposure available to them during a crisis is less than otherwise would be available. In a market crisis, the funds might provide some modicum of stabilizing effect, but that is the moment when margin is not easily available.</p>\n<p>The great irony is that the governments, the prime brokers, and the exchanges are, in principle, the regulators of the system that is supposed to be fair to all market participants. Yet, if the so-called regulators regulate with regard to securing a certain outcome, however noble their intentions, that system can never be neutral to all participants.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><em>A Response—A Simultaneously Long and Short Global Hedge&nbsp;</em></p>\n<p>Consequently, it is only reasonable that some market participants would seek an investment environment free from regulation, which some would say is free from manipulation. Thus, modern computer science has made possible the artificial asset class. Only one example of this is Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency. Bitcoin, at the time of this writing, had a market capitalization of roughly $9 billion. It might be $11 billion now. Such increases can occur within days.</p>\n<p>In principle, the world certainly has enough currencies. Yet if governments that issue currencies permit them to lose purchasing power continually, so the debtors of the world (which include the issuers of the currencies) can continue to borrow and spend as they see fit, people quite rightly will lose confidence in the currency.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Bitcoin, by contrast, offers a fixed number of units, which ultimately will be 21 million.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>A purchase of Bitcoin, however small, is nothing other than a short sale of the currencies of the world. It should be obvious that if it were to gain the confidence of a meaningful number of investors, it would not trade at a market capitalization of $9 billion.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If it were worth $10 trillion, this would be equivalent only to the current value of government debt with a negative yield (which is one-sixth or one-seventh of all government debt in the world as calculated by economists). This is a nominal, or trading-price, negative yield. The quantity of global government debt with a real negative yield, which takes account of the inflation rate in those nations, is much greater. If Bitcoin were simply to be equal—via market demand—to the value of all government bonds with negative yields, the increase in value would be 1,111.11 times. This might even be an underestimate since the quantity of bonds with negative yields is constantly increasing.</p>\n<p>If a portfolio having a 1% position experiences a 1,111.11 times appreciation in that position, the portfolio increases by .01 multiplied by 1,111.11, or 11.11 times. If this occurs over a five-year time period and if the price of every other position remains unchanged, this would be equivalent to a 64.68% annualized rate of return. But that’s hardly impressive enough: if all the other investments were to become worthless during this hypothetical time period and no dividends or interest were collected on any position, this portfolio’s rate of return would decline to 61.86%. Talk about a hedge!</p>\n<p>Of course, the worst that could happen to Bitcoin would be a 100% loss, which would be a 100 basis point—or 1% point—loss to the portfolio. It should be obvious why a very small number of investors believe that Bitcoin is both a new asset class and a particularly effective hedge. It is a long position that is, in effect, a short position on world currencies.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency. There are aspirants to the status of digital currencies that have no fixed limit upon eventual issuance. An example of such is Ethereum. There are also alternative cryptocurrencies that might be termed social currencies, such as SolarCoin. It is given free to verified owners of solar power producing assets. It is essentially a rewards program that gives one SolarCoin, or SLR, for each megawatt hour of solar power produced. It has been calculated that 1 megawatt hour saves the creation of 1,500 pounds of CO2.</p>\n<p>The reward, granted by the SolarCoin Foundation, has a trading value of 1 SLR to 17.56 cents. Its price, interestingly, is ordinarily quoted in Bitcoin. On January 1, 2016, it was trading at 0.00003739 Bitcoin. On June 11, 2016, it was quoted trading at .00030116 Bitcoin, an eightfold increase in Bitcoin terms. It now trades at about 33,817 SLR per day. The market capitalization of the instrument is now $6 million. The SolarCoin Foundation would like to issue $4 billion worth of SolarCoin.</p>\n<p>The essential point is that the worldwide spread of computer technology means that Blockchain as a technology—the transparent ledger of historical transactions underlying Bitcoin—and the basic idea of a commonly agreed upon store of value is very difficult to stop. Iceland has made Bitcoin illegal. Unknown computer experts, however, created an alternative to Bitcoin named Auroracoin. In March 2014, 50% of the Auroracoin was distributed to all 330,000 people in Iceland using the registry of the Iceland National ID system. This translated to 31.8 Auroracoins per person.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The creators unilaterally declared that each Auroracoin had the value of $12.11 per coin. It was announced that more coins were to be issued and further issuance did take place. Of course, the market paid no attention to the “established” value of $12.11 per coin. The initial trading value was low. It was quickly established that the trading value of Auroracoin was .001 Bitcoin. This was a time of Bitcoin weakness, and only about 24% of the Auroracoins issued were claimed by Icelanders. The issuers destroyed the unclaimed balance.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Auroracoin now trades at 0.004413 Bitcoin. Thus, it appreciated by more than 4x in Bitcoin terms since 2014, and Bitcoin itself has appreciated. The Icelandic government considered banning Auroracoin, but decided the only way to enforce such laws would be to become a police state. It will be recalled that Iceland has only 330,000 citizens.</p>\n<p>Thus, new asset classes are being created. At least some people have come to the conclusion that if governments are determined to depreciate money as a store of value, they need not participate. Negative interest rates and excessive currency creation are instigating a reaction.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The Icelandic krona has lost about 5% of its value in relation to the U.S. dollar year to date. If the Icelandic government cannot control the money of 330,000 Icelanders, one-third of whom live in Reykjavik, it will be much more difficult for the world’s governments to control the planet’s 7.125 billion people. There might soon be many alternatives to the traditional asset classes.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Note: All the cryptocurrency exchange rates that are cited here are courtesy of coinmarketcap.com.</p>\n<p>---------------------</p>\n<p><em>Disclaimers:</em></p>\n<p><em>Horizon Kinetics LLC (“Horizon Kinetics”) is the parent holding company to several SEC-registered investment advisors including Horizon Asset Management LLC, Kinetics Asset Management LLC, and Kinetics Advisers, LLC. Horizon Kinetics authors research reports based on information available to the public. &nbsp;No representation is made with regard to the reports’ accuracy or completeness and all expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth and are subject to change. This document is neither an offer, recommendation nor solicitation to buy or sell securities. Horizon Kinetics and each of its respective employees and affiliates may have positions in securities of companies mentioned herein. &nbsp;You may visit our website at </em><a href=\"www.horizonkinetics.com\"><em>www.horizonkinetics.com</em></a><em> to find additional information on Horizon Kinetics. &nbsp;All views expressed in these research reports accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal views about any and all of the subject matter, securities or issuers. No part of the research analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analysts in the research reports. Reproduction and dissemination of these reports outside the constraints of this social media space is strictly prohibited. ©Horizon Kinetics LLC® 2016.</em></p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "The Question of Interest Rates and Cryptocurrency",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><img src=\"http://www.horizonkinetics.com/images/horizon_kinetics_logo_blue_Small.jpg\"/></p>\n<p><em>Originally Published July 2016</em></p>\n<p>On June 17, 2016, history recorded that the yields on 10-year Italian and Spanish government bonds were actually lower than the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Spanish government bonds yielded 1.55% and Italian government bonds yielded 1.51%. The U.S. Treasury 10-year bonds yielded 1.62%.<sup>(1)</sup></p>\n<p>Since most observers would agree that Spain and Italy are not better credits than the United States of America, one can immediately dismiss any notion of the efficient market at work. These yields merely represent the result of massive purchases by the European Central Bank. One of the many consequences of such policies is that the Swiss 10-year government bond yield is now negative 54 basis points.<sup>(1)</sup> In fact, in some countries apart from Switzerland, the so-called risk-free rate is negative.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The idea of a negative risk-free rate is a contradiction in terms, since it guarantees that the risk-free outcome results in a loss. However, in the highly abstruse world of modern financial theory, a guaranteed loss does not qualify as a risk. A risk is only an uncertain outcome that expresses itself as volatility.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Despite the rigorous mathematical treatment by financial orthodoxy, a small but nevertheless growing contingent rejects the notion that governments, central banks, and PhD economists should have the right to assure a person who saves not only of a loss in purchasing power but also of an actual loss in nominal value.</p>\n<p>It is forgotten by the economists, central bankers, as well as financial journalists that money existed long before there were financial journalists, central bankers, and economists. In other words, people used money long before there were mathematical models that purported to explain it. Archeologists will verify that cattle and grain were used as money or units of account at least 17,000 years ago and possibly as long as 19,000 years ago. It might be recalled by those conversant with the Bible that in Genesis 23, Abraham purchased the Cave of the Patriarchs, otherwise known as the Cave of Machpelah, for 400 shekels of silver. Note that the silver weight equivalent to 400 shekels was established before silver futures, organized exchanges, algorithmic trading, modern portfolio theory, and central banks, among other modern innovations.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Interestingly, archeologists reliably inform us that long before the Roman Republic, throughout the ancient world, a shekel was precisely defined in terms of a specific weight of barley. This should not surprise anyone. The British pound sterling was originally just a pound of silver; it was called the pound sterling and not the silver pound because sterling is an alloy of silver and copper containing 92.5% silver and 7.25% copper. It contains a few other ingredients, as well. In other words, sterling has a fineness of 0.925. The pre-modern British did not choose to use fine silver, which is 99.9% pure silver, because they were practically oriented. Pure silver is too soft to use as a coin, which may be roughly handled. The coin needed to be sufficiently hard to retain its weight as it circulated in the economy.</p>\n<p>This very abbreviated history should be sufficient to demonstrate that anything that human beings agree upon as a unit of account or money can actually be money. Since the central banks and governments of the world appear determined to lessen the purchasing power of money, it should not be surprising to learn that new forms of money are constantly evolving. A recently popular form of money is cryptocurrency. There are perhaps 660 cryptocurrencies in the world today; however, the dominant one is Bitcoin. According to CoinMarketCap.com, Bitcoin now has an 84% market share.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin operates as an open ledger called a blockchain. The entire history of Bitcoin on a cumulative basis is contained on the blockchain. For example, as of this writing, according to blockchain.info, there are 15,671,550 bitcoins in existence. Every day, 3,600 Bitcoins are created; ergo, one year ago from the date of this writing, there were 14,357,550 Bitcoins (i.e., 365 x 3,600 or 1,314,000 fewer bitcoins were in existence). According to blockchain.info there were 3,595,936 Bitcoin wallets.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin wallets store the private keys needed to execute transactions on the bitcoin network. At the time of this writing, there were a total of 7,657,584 Bitcoin wallets. In other words, 4,061,648 Bitcoin wallets were created at the same time as 1,314,000 Bitcoins were created. The system, on average, creates 0.3235 Bitcoins for every wallet created. Another way of expressing this phenomenon is to state that over the course of the past year, 11,127 Bitcoin wallets have been created on a daily basis in relation to 3,600 Bitcoins created each day. More recently, about 12,000 Bitcoin wallets are created on a daily basis.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>On or about July 9, 2016, the daily creation amount of Bitcoins will decline to precisely 1,800 units.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Virtually all financial practitioners, including financial planners, and especially academic economists, are united in the belief that Bitcoin is a momentary fad that will soon pass. The portfolios of pension funds, insurance companies, and banks are replete with low-yielding—or, in many cases, negatively-yielding—government paper. These are considered the low risk assets.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>In other words, a Swiss government bond with a negative yield and a 10-year maturity is considered a low-risk asset, even though a simple convexity calculation would easily demonstrate that if the Swiss government bond were to yield 3%, the holder of that instrument would experience a calamitous loss in terms of Swiss francs. Moreover, if Swiss yields were to increase less than the euro or dollar yields for some reason, there would be another loss in the value of the Swiss franc relative to these other currencies.</p>\n<p>Is Bitcoin really more dangerous than these other accepted instrumentalities for use as a store of value? Is Bitcoin really so dangerous that a portfolio could not survive a 10 or 20 basis point exposure? None of these questions are ever posed, since the debate is framed in the context of government or central bank action.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>On one hand, the deflationists argue quite convincingly that democratic societies cannot possibly inflate and destroy the value of the purchasing power of many millions of retirees and soon-to-be retirees. These people are politically active, so to inflate and destroy the purchasing power of pensions is simply political suicide. Even if a given politician or group of politicians were willing to commit political suicide in the national interest, the gesture would be quite futile because the pensioners have the political power to remove any inflation-minded government. Hence, this group argues that a German government 10-year bond that might yield 3 to 4 basis points on a good day is a good investment, since debt-induced deflation will lower prices, and the real value of such a bond will increase even if its nominal value will not.</p>\n<p>The inflationists take the opposing view. They argue that it would be political suicide to allow deflation to run its course and thereby compel debtors of all sorts to repay loans in nominal dollars when prices and incomes are falling. In fact, it can be argued that government tax revenue would undoubtedly decline and, at least on the national level, governments would be compelled to monetize the debt by central bank purchases of that debt. Any effort at deflation is merely a prelude to inflation. In any case, the debtors have the power to remove from office any officials that are inclined to tolerate deflation. Ultimately, the power of the electorate is paramount in a democracy.</p>\n<p>In the last 100 years of history, one can find plentiful examples to support each of these views. However, the more significant point is that the average person has neither the skill nor the inclination to judge which of these views is correct. The power to decide the value of money in terms of purchasing power is a weighty responsibility. It is almost always abused. It is difficult to think of a single instance in which such a power was used wisely, although there probably are such instances.</p>\n<p>Perhaps as a consequence, the great financial innovations in terms of store of value were invented by people instead of governments. Trade bills of exchange evolved from commercial activities at medieval fairs. Fractional reserve banking was developed by goldsmiths, not by central bankers. In fact, fractional reserve banking predates the origin of central banks. Paper money was introduced in the Song Dynasty in China during the 11th century. Its origin was in the receipts of merchants who wished to avoid carrying metal coins. In fact, the Western world only learned of paper money through Marco Polo and the account of paper money is the subject of an entire chapter in the book <em>The Travels of Marco Polo</em>.</p>\n<p>History records that anything that can attain a universal trust as to value can become money. Ultimately, anything that serves as money that is not trusted will not serve as a store of value, whatever the government or central bank might determine. By structure and common consent, Bitcoin has a fixed issuance of 21 million units, to be realized in the year 2140. Starting on July 10, 2016, daily issuance will be 1,800 units, or 657,000 per annum. More than 12,000 Bitcoin wallets are opened every 24 hours.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If there were 76 million Bitcoin wallets instead of the current 7.6 million, this would be a tenfold increase, still representing only 1.1% of the individuals on the planet. Note that on the day this data was retrieved, the number of wallets was 7.6 million; tomorrow it will probably be 7.7 million. Moreover, the number of people on the planet is not a proper denominator, because there are countless businesses as well as other organizations that must deal in money, so the penetration rate is still less than one-tenth of 1%.</p>\n<p>Consequently, if the inflation theory is alluring, one might consider the purchase of gold. If the deflation theory is alluring, one might consider the purchase of a 10-year Swiss government bond with a yield to maturity of -54 basis points per annum. However, these scenarios are too complex to be predicted accurately. If one knows no more about economics than an understanding of the laws of supply and demand, perhaps one should buy some Bitcoin.</p>\n<p><em><sup>(1)</sup> On July 6, 2016 U.S. Treasury 10-year bonds yielded 1.38%, Spain’s 10-year government bonds yielded 1.18%, Italy’s 1.24%, and Switzerland’s -0.68%.</em></p>\n<p>---------------------</p>\n<p><em>Disclaimers:</em></p>\n<p><em>Horizon Kinetics LLC (“Horizon Kinetics”) is the parent holding company to several SEC-registered investment advisors including Horizon Asset Management LLC, Kinetics Asset Management LLC, and Kinetics Advisers, LLC. Horizon Kinetics authors research reports based on information available to the public. &nbsp;No representation is made with regard to the reports’ accuracy or completeness and all expressions of opinion reflect judgment as of the date set forth and are subject to change. This document is neither an offer, recommendation nor solicitation to buy or sell securities. Horizon Kinetics and each of its respective employees and affiliates may have positions in securities of companies mentioned herein. &nbsp;You may visit our website at www.horizonkinetics.com to find additional information on Horizon Kinetics. &nbsp;All views expressed in these research reports accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal views about any and all of the subject matter, securities or issuers. No part of the research analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analysts in the research reports. Reproduction and dissemination of these reports outside the constraints of this social media space is strictly prohibited. ©Horizon Kinetics LLC® 2016.</em></p>\n</html>",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"bitcoin\",\"crypto-news\",\"money\",\"cryptocurrency\"],\"image\":[\"http://www.horizonkinetics.com/images/horizon_kinetics_logo_blue_Small.jpg\"]}"
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      "author": "treeleaves",
      "permlink": "re-horizonkinetics-technical-problems-of-a-fixed-money-supply-20160910t171053852z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "@@ -206,16 +206,23 @@\n a href=%22\n+http://\n k0in.com\n",
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      "permlink": "re-horizonkinetics-technical-problems-of-a-fixed-money-supply-20160910t171053852z",
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      "body": "Yes, bitcoin solves this problem and become like an asset.  I believe an improved blockchain currency could also solve the conterfiet/overcreation problem but still not have a \"a fixed money supply\".  My <a href=\"k0in.com\">design for this</a> would follow rules like bitcoin, but have a variable rate that keeps demand and price level.",
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      "body": "I think this is the first paid advertisement on steemit. Great initiative doing this to get people to know about your company!",
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