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      "body": "https://youtu.be/WERii7HOW8s\n\nIn the past couple of days, I have been noticing quite a few crypto influencers’ questioning the bottom of the crypto markets’ current market cycle. Did we reach the bottom yet? While none of us have a crystal ball, there are a few clues that indicate that we reached the bottom of the current market cycle during the last week. Let’s take a look…\n\n## Failing to Break Support on Bitcoin (BTC)\nWe have seen the market test Bitcoin’s $5,800 – $6,000 price level, a couple of times, during the past several months. Every time Bitcoin reaches this support level, prices would bounce up to higher levels with relatively heavy volume. This price resilience shows that there are still people and institutions who believe in the technology. If we look at historical BTC prices, we can see that within each bubble, prices would crash from all-time-highs, but would maintain a much higher support level after the bubble was fully deflated. The current market cycle seems to maintain a support level at $5,800, which is about 500% higher than its previous support level. This 5X multiple (from prior to current) price support is similar (at about 4X – 6X) to previous market cycles.\n\n## Ignoring the Bad News\nThe SEC’s rejection on nine different Crypto ETF applications did not affect the markets as negatively as most would expect. In fact, market participants just shrugged the news off and markets actually elevated slightly higher after the news came out. This is a sign that the bears are fatiguing and running out of ammunition to attack. Remember there’s only so much crypto they can sell until the market flattens. Eventually, the only market participants left in the market are the Long Term Hodlers and the crypto bulls. Seems like all the bears have exhausted everything they have and don’t have much left in the tank. Chances are that we will see sideways movement for quite a while until the next bull-run.\n\nAdditionally, on August 23rd, headlines across numerous websites and publications started to show further tightening of Chinese regulations against cryptocurrency. The markets shrugged this off, as if everybody already knew about this, and continued to slightly trend up. In the past, any negative Chinese-related news would cause gigantic sell-offs in the crypto markets, but not this time.\n\nhttps://youtu.be/gIh9ouAmSqY\n\n## Shaking Off the Shorts\nOn August 24th, one of crypto’s largest trading exchanges (Bitmex) went through maintenance, where the operators shut trading down for a couple of hours. During this time frame, traders at *Bitfinex* bid up the price of Bitcoin, squeezing shorts on *Bitmex* when the platform reopened for trading. While Bitfinex traders were rapidly pumping up BTC prices, many traders in other exchanges, such as Coinbase Pro, were arbitraging the price differentials between Bitfinex’s BTC prices vs. other exchanges’ BTC prices. This process created huge volume and might have been the reason why prices reached about $8,000 abruptly across all trading platforms.\n\nBefore the price spike, BTC was originally trading at about $6,500, meaning there’s a possibility that shorts were holding BTC prices down by 23%. This goes to show how much influence the shorts have in cryptocurrency market prices. Eventually, we will shake off all the short sellers. The Bitmex incident most likely instilled fear into some of the short sellers. They probably realized that anything can happen and that nothing is a sure thing. Even if BTC is fundamentally overvalued, the markets can do something unexpected and wipe out their accounts in a blink of an eye. Perhaps, we may have more of these occurrences in the future, which will shake off more shorts in the market.\n\n## The Market Never Does What’s Anticipated\nThere are many people in the crypto community, included myself, who still believe there’s one or two more capitulation stages before we see the end of the bear market. We still believe Bitcoin can reach $3,000 – $4,000, and the cryptocurrency market capitalization can reach $150 – $160 Billion. In fact, I know quite a few people who are still sitting on short positions, waiting until we reach those levels, before jumping back long into the market. The fact that the market knows that there are people who think this, is reason to believe that we probably will not reach those levels. Remember that markets are created to make the few rich, while the masses lose money. Most markets will do the opposite of what’s expected (at least in the short term) to funnel poor/dumb money into rich and smart money. So, the fact that there are still a lot of people out there who anticipate the market will go lower is reason to believe that the market will not do so. We can surmise that trading bots and crypto whales will hold certain price levels to prevent further substantial price declines.\n\n## Not Out of the Woods Yet\nHaving said all of the above, we are probably still not out of the woods yet. Unexpected stricter regulations from the US could cause further price declines. Poorly ran projects and inadequately funded cryptos will die, causing the overall market cap to fall. Even though unforeseen negative events can cause further capitulation, those events would have to be a lot more meaningful and substantial to the fundamental standing of crypto. In other words, any negative news coming out related to cryptocurrency, must in fact be significant real (not fake) news.\n\n*CNBC will broadcast a special documentary on cryptocurrencies, 6PM Eastern Standard Time, this evening, called: [*Bitcoin: Boom or Bust*](https://www.hulu.com/watch/1329071). I look forward to watching what mainstream media has to say about this emerging new technology. The documentary would probably talk about the history, opportunities, and problems associated with the current state in crypto. This should be interesting to anybody who is new to the space.",
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      "body": "![tether-mints-250-mln-of-new-usdt-tokens-rekindles-controversy1[1].png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcF9kpUWZEMSiz364m5GFa5cHFqvqnpH8KrUdJwPedQsu/tether-mints-250-mln-of-new-usdt-tokens-rekindles-controversy1[1].png)\n\nThis news came out last evening. Below, there is a link to a research paper that shows market manipulation with Bitcoin (BTC) prices during 2017, through the use of *Tether* (USDT). For those who are not familiar with USDT, Tether is a cryptocurrency that originated from the cryptocurrency exchange *Bitfinex*. USDT is pegged to the dollar and each Tether is supposed to be backed by one dollar of US fiat currency. In other words, Bitfinex and the issuers of this cryptocurrency are supposed to have one US dollar for every USDT they issue in the market. Throughout 2017, many people in the crypto space speculated that Bitfinex was printing Tether without adequate fiat in their bank account to back their USDT issuance.\n\nWith all the above in mind, the below linked academic study shows that the inadequately fiat supported issuances were used to prop up Bitcoin prices during every market downfall that occurred last year. In other words, USDT was used to create artificial support levels, leading crypto investors/speculators to believe that BTC price levels could not go below certain price points.\n\nThis was something that many in the cryptocurrency space were well aware of. There were quite a few of my colleagues and Crypto Influencers that noticed how BTC prices skyrocketed to higher levels, subsequent to each new Tether issuance. Some people in crypto say that regulation is not good for cryptocurrencies, but this is a case where regulation can actually benefit the space.\n\nHere is the link to the academic study: [Click Here](https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=660029082067073119123107070121080113007059056088020045126118025097090093104093117005013117053102018063007119112013029122071019112038078013065114007122095126122090068088040053112100118107127080126102123092000082028010031091023068087108072086005012112101&EXT=pdf)",
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      "body": "![Next-Bitcoin-Bull-Run[1].jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPjSE8JATMZbhKPQGz3hwyh78u46pni14mF9JwfP2Qu98/Next-Bitcoin-Bull-Run[1].jpg)\n\nA couple of days ago, I stumbled onto a video of Roger Ver talking about the crypto market crash that happened on June 2011, where Bitcoin (BTC) prices went from $1.00/BTC to $32.00/BTC, and subsequently crashed to $2.00/BTC by November 2011. For those who do not know who Roger Ver is, he is one of the early investors of Bitcoin. Dubbed *“Bitcoin Jesus,”* who converted thousands (and perhaps millions) of people into Bitcoin adoption, he was a staunch proponent of Bitcoin back in the earlier days. However, due to a difference in opinion with the current software developers of Bitcoin, Mr. Ver decided to break ties with Bitcoin and created his own cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Cash (or “bcash” for short).\n\nIn this video, Roger Ver explains how he was buying large amounts of Bitcoin during the crash from late June 2011 to the Fall of 2011. He purports that he was buying large chunks of the cryptocurrency with every large drop that occurred during those few months. His only regret was that he ran out of fiat currency and could not acquire more coins at lower prices, when BTC bottomed out at $2.00/BTC. Of course, the rest is history. Bitcoin went through a couple of more ups-and-downs only to reach an all-time-high of $20,000 per coin on December 2017.\n\n## Markets run in cycles\nToday, we see the same thing happening back in 2011. We saw a big run up with Bitcoin prices during 2017, only to see it collapse to current levels, which is currently a 68% drop from the all-time-high. So, what’s attributing to this drop, one may ask. Is this due to market manipulation? Are retail speculators/investors being duped? Uncertainty behind crypto regulation? Exchange hacks? The lack of custody solutions for institutional investors? Perhaps. All those reasons are concerns and valid reasons for why crypto is currently enduring a bear market. However, what many people do not really talk about is how we are going through the cycle of a market bubble. This is perhaps the main reason why crypto prices are collapsing and will, most likely, continue to collapse in the near future.\n\n## It’s all about sentiment\nIf we look below, we will see a diagram representing “the cycle of market emotions”.\n\n![Cycle-of-Market-Emotions[1].jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX7bCvxVSUdPhycSrZD92yGFP899yXERWg9BnERNUnwnk/Cycle-of-Market-Emotions[1].jpg)\n\nAs we can clearly see, 2017 marked the period when the market was filled with Optimism and Euphoria. The beginning of 2018 was perhaps where we reached the “Point of maximum financial risk,” when the crypto markets hit a record high market capitalization of over $830 billion. Afterwards, we can see the Anxiety and Denial stages kick in. In my opinion, we are either in, or approaching, the “Fear” stage now. So, we still have room to fall.\n\nThe main gravity behind the current market downturn is due to the waning enthusiasm in the crypto space. The amount of Google Searches for “Bitcoin” and “Cryptocurrencies” dropped about 75% from its peak, at the end of December 2017. The amount of new subscribers and engagement with crypto *YouTube* videos and other channels of social media also fell precipitously within the same time frame. In fact, we have many crypto influencers, such as some of my favorites, like [Richard Heart](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCta3TYFhzfpPvOtKBDifYJA) and [Carter Thomas](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4nXWTjZqK4bv7feoRntSog), who produced and shared content regarding the crypto space, on a very frequent basis, decrease their content production and are moving onto other things. People who were excited and got into cryptocurrencies at the end of 2017, are all pretty much out of the market now. Chances are that they will never return into the space because they lost a lot of money and will not want to go through the same ordeal in the future. But that’s OK because less than 1% of the world is (or was) in crypto. There are still lots and lots of people who are waiting to catch the next big wave in this market.\n\n## Similarities with the 2013/2014 market cycle\nIf we look at the chart below, we can easily discern the pattern of what Bitcoin did back in 2014, as compared to what’s happening right now.\n\n![Bitcoin-2014-Fractals[1].png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeEaQJpnSjyiAQDqhcXjfK2DvDq9avR7QaGZCoeWd8SsY/Bitcoin-2014-Fractals[1].png)\n\nThe patterns are not identical, but they follow an eerily similar pattern. Should this be of any surprise to us? Probably not, because we know that this pattern follows what typically happens in the cycle of market bubbles.\n\n## Similarities with the Dotcom Bubble\nLet’s take a look at the similarities between a more traditional market, which we all know, the *NASDAQ*, and compare it to what’s happening with the cryptocurrency markets, today.\n\n![Dotcom-Bubble-Fractals[1].png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVkosKCRac1bB4XTmS5RR7f8Q6KXKyPrLRg4Ub3Cmzv4a/Dotcom-Bubble-Fractals[1].png)\n\nAs we can see, very similar chart patterns, which resemble the typical market bubble burst that occurs after a huge run up. We should not be surprised.\n\nMany people who are heavily invested in the crypto space (aka: *bag holders*) will argue that the 2013/2014 crypto markets were very different from what we have today. After all, we do have more exchanges and a much more robust financial infrastructure for cryptocurrencies today, as compared to three to four years ago. Additionally, more people are involved in the space, ranging from new investors, speculators, software developers, etc. This is all very true and very positive for crypto, however what these bag holders fail to recognize is that the price action is dictated by sentiment, not infrastructure. Cryptocurrencies can have the best financial infrastructure in the world, where investors can simply buy crypto instantly with a single click of a button, but this does not guarantee that they will purchase these crypto assets. Just remember that supply does not equal demand. When there is little demand, prices will not go up.\n\nBag holders will also argue the variances between traditional markets (i.e. – the NASDAQ, stocks) vs. the crypto markets, due to the different stakeholders involved, and the disparities in financial infrastructure of the two asset classes, are great. While they may be correct in the technicalities with their assessments, again they fail to realize that market bubbles are driven by emotions and sentiment, rather than technical details.\n\n## Will there be another crypto bull-run?\nWhile none of us can tell the future, chances are that history will repeat itself. Bitcoin has gone through three major market bubble cycles since its inception in 2009. The very first major cycle occurred in 2011, the second one happened during 2013, and then we had our most recent one in 2017. So, when’s the next bull-run going to happen? Nobody really knows, but if we had to bet on the next date (or year) when this may happen, it will probably be in the year 2020/2021.\n\nYou might be asking why 2021? Well, in Bitcoin, there is this event called *“the Halvening”* or *“Halving”,* whereby miners receive half the amount of Bitcoin reward for each successfully mined coin. This event occurs every four years ever since Bitcoin was created. So, the first reward was 50 Bitcoins for every 10 minutes, from 2009 – 2012. The first halving occurred on November 2012, in which the rewards dropped to 25 BTC for every 10 minutes. The second, and our most recent, halving occurred on July 2016, where the rewards dropped to 12.5 BTC per every 10 minute interval. If we are really observant, we will see that there was always a bull-run that happened the year after a halving. Why this is?…Is anyone’s guess.\n\nOn top of the upcoming halvening, we can only surmise that in three to four years, we will have more real, actual, and physical/serviceable products in the world’s marketplace. As software developers continue to build new crypto products to solve real world problems, there is zero doubt that the growth and adoption of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies will continue. The technology will improve, while scalability will continue to reach new heights. As the tech evolves, businesses and software engineers will find newer and better use cases for cryptocurrencies. All this advancement will be expedited as more and more talent migrate from traditional technology and financial companies to cryptocurrency related organizations, which is a growing trend we are beginning to see today.\n\n## What to do now?\nIf the next bull-run is not until a few years from now, what should we do now? For the meantime, it is best to educate yourself about blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. Learn the truth, and do not let anybody rob you of the potential wealth you can build. Crypto is definitely not a sure thing and is no guarantee to future riches, by any means. But, this is where education comes into play. By knowing what is going on in the technology and the marketplace, you will know what to do (and what not to do) when the time is right. And please do not listen blindly to what any self-proclaimed expert says, not even myself (even though I am not an expert, by any means). Do your own due diligence and act according to what is right for you.\n\nTo supplement what’s written above, please take note that if the next bull-run does, in fact, occur in 2021, we can logically infer that the bottom of the crypto markets will occur sometime between now and 2021. We don’t know exactly when we’ll hit the bottom, but perhaps a good estimate is sometime between the end of this summer and the beginning of Winter 2018. (You will know it’s the bottom when you see headlines saying “Charlie Lee re-buys Litecoin”. Just kidding…this is a crypto insider joke for those who have been in the space for a while.) Once when the bottom is reached, we’ll probably bounce a little and move sideways and remain stagnant for a while, just like what we saw in 2014 – 2016. Perhaps at the end of 2019, we may see the market slowly creep up again.\n\nMany people may hate me for writing this blog post because people do not have patience. Everyone wants to get rich overnight. Bag holders despise people who are not always touting an imminent bull market. However, the bull market is not going to occur until most people lose interest and forget about crypto. I know this because it happened to me back in 2013. I heard about how Bitcoin went over $1,000 via a [Marketwatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/topics/columns/cryptowatch) online article. For a few days, I was interested but soon forgot, and then several weeks later I heard Bitcoin dropped back down to the low triple digit levels. If I had known better, I would have gotten into Bitcoin back in 2014. I would be rich now. But, we cannot go back in time to redo things.\n\n \n\n(Please see my [post](https://henrykwongcpa.com/can-2018-be-the-end-of-bitcoin-cryptomania/) regarding how cryptocurrencies could tank this year. It was only a tongue-and-cheek piece at the time, *but not really*. I was crucified on *Reddit* for having written the piece, but in hindsight I was correct, after all.)",
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      "body": "![ed35dd2480d5b5d4495dc9a03dbb5228[1].jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXLWmvRUYW3r8iQp7LE64KsAxPk9ZBpCiN68M2dQwQ28z/ed35dd2480d5b5d4495dc9a03dbb5228%5B1%5D.jpg)\n\nNo, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not turds or rat poison.\n\nDon’t get me wrong, I love Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. They are the people who shaped my investment philosophy, when I first started investing, at the ripe young age of 19 years old. And they are also a part of the reason why I am able to build the stock portfolio I have today. However, I will have to disagree with their opinions on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.\n\nDuring the past couple of days, we had industry leaders come out to speak against Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. We had Bill Gates, who’s a technological and Enterprise genius and titan, come out to say he would short Bitcoin if he had the means to do so. You hear from multiple major talking heads, who are experts in their respective fields, calling cryptocurrencies a fraud, and then recanting to expound on the real value and numerous use cases of the underlying blockchain technology. And then yesterday, we had Steve Eisman, the person who’s responsible for orchestrating *The Big Short*, come out to say he does not see any real value or purpose with Bitcoin and crypto.\n\nSo, I am here to say that I was also a long time skeptic of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. However, I decided to ask these questions: *What exactly is the real value and purpose of cryptocurrencies and public blockchains?* And *do we actually need cryptocurrencies for blockchain technology?* After collaborating with a couple of valuable sources in the space, here is what I discovered…\n\n## Significance of a Public Distributive Ledger\nIf we wanted to start a business or execute an idea in today’s world, we need a lot of resources and face multiple barriers to entry. Think, for example, if you want to open a financial firm or start an investment fund, you need large databases, plenty of computing power, and a strong technological (and organizational) infrastructure to compete with the likes of *Goldman Sachs* or *JP Morgan*. (And this is excluding all the legal hoops we have to jump through just to set up shop.) As we can see, this involves large outlays of money from the get-go, and requires a lot of time and marketing expertise to build brand awareness and trust with potential customers/clients. All this is a huge barrier to entry for most parties that want to compete in the space.\n\nWith a *public distributive ledger* built on a certain *blockchain protocol*, we eliminate a lot of the time and cost requirements for building our own business or executing our big idea. So we may be asking: *What exactly is a blockchain protocol?* Think HTTP for the Internet, except this is with blockchain technology. Nobody owns HTTP, but it’s required to run the Internet. Everything on the Internet (including websites, web pages, social media, message boards, forums, audio, and video, all the way to the dark web) is built on the HTTP protocol, which is available to the public. Right now, we have software developing teams from all over the world attempting to build the “next” universal protocol for blockchain technology. The most notable competing protocols at this time include *Bitcoin*, *Ethereum*, *Cardano*, *EOS*, and *NEO*, among others. Everything related to blockchain in the future will be built on the winning protocol(s), which is another reason why we need cryptocurrencies… these protocol developers need to get paid, and crypto is the most efficient way of paying these hardworking techies.\n\nSo, what does this all mean? How does this pertain to us? With a public distributive ledger (or public blockchain) we can build our business or project within an existing infrastructure that’s available to everybody. For instance, we can build our business on the Ethereum blockchain, which eliminates a lot of the time and cost requirements of database building and computer network development. All the technology and computing power will be available to us in the Ethereum blockchain. All we need to do is spend our time figuring how we’ll compete in the finance world. We can spend more time with what we can offer our customers, and figure out which new features we can add to our service(s) to solve real problems. As we can see, this is a much more efficient and cost-effective way of doing business and creating projects. Additionally, this increases competition in the marketplace, which forces big corporations to constantly innovate and stay on their toes in their respective industries…which is all great for the consumer.\n\n## Trustless\nBlockchains are trustless. Everything that’s transacted on a blockchain is done by machines, with very little human interference. This means there’s less room for fraudulent actions associated with human behavior.\n\nFor those who don’t know, a blockchain consists of a bunch of computers and networks (which are called nodes) located at different places from all over the world. When a transaction takes place with Bitcoin (or any cryptocurrency), the transaction would go through a computer/phone/device, which gets sent to a pool (called a *mempool*), in which it would wait “in line” to get verified. Transaction verification involves solving extremely complicated mathematical equations, which require tons of computing power provided by all the computers available in the blockchain. Once when verification takes place, the node which solved the math equation would send the verified transaction to all the other nodes within the network, and everything gets recorded into the blockchain. This process is virtually impossible to reverse and basically tamper-proof. Perhaps, the only way to override verified transactions in a blockchain is if a party overtakes and hacks into a majority of the nodes in the system. This will require an insurmountable amount of computing power, along with a lot of time investment and mental energy, and chances of success would still be very low.\n\nBecause a blockchain is nearly impossible to reverse and is practically tamper-proof, it creates trust. The public can look into a public blockchain and see what took place at what time. This is very unlike our current system for inefficient fact and evidence gathering, where we go through tons of literature, documents, videos, emails, and voicemails to find proof for an occurrence or details regarding a debatable issue. One can just look at a blockchain and determine the details of a transaction or a past occurrence within seconds with practically zero cost. Just think about how much time and money could be saved without having to go through the old method of collecting information and data. We can potentially eliminate a lot of the shady business practices associated with untrustworthy third parties and reduce a lot of the legal expenses that go into costly and unnecessary court cases. \n\n## Cryptocurrencies as an Incentive\nTo run a public distributive ledger requires an enormous amount of computing power, from all over the world. There needs to be an incentive for parties to give up their computing power to maintain a reliable and secure blockchain. Rather than having a centralized entity summing up and dividing all the utilized computing power and, in turn, paying out the respective rewards via fiat to all the different involved parties, cryptocurrencies is the most efficient method for providing incentives to all involved parties. The computer(s) that provides the most power to verify a transaction gets paid with the associated cryptocurrency. The rest of the computers will get their chance in the next transaction. Without this incentive, very few parties would be willing to give up their computing power to maintain a public blockchain.\n\n## “Permissionless”\nA public blockchain is available to everybody, meaning we do not need to report to an upper level or entity when we decide to use it. Case in point, you don’t need to ask the government or a bank to use Bitcoin or Ethereum. You just use it. If you want to send money via Bitcoin to someone else, you won’t get questioned by authorities about the amount of the transaction and the purpose of the transfer. You just send the money to whomever you desire, for whatever reason. And you do not need to sign any forms or report anything to anybody.\n\n## As a Payments System\nCryptocurrency is perhaps the most affordable and fastest way to send money via cross-border transactions. If you haven’t been aware, there was a big piece in the news regarding a $99 million dollar transaction via Litecoin which only took 2.5 minutes and cost 40 cents to complete. There is no other competing technology that allows for such low-cost and speed when it comes to money transfers. *Western Union* and other wire transfer services can cost up to 20% of the balance you’re transferring overseas. Banks usually take days to complete a wire with huge sums of money, with hefty fees. Existing systems dealing with money transfers are outdated and archaic. Cryptocurrencies is the future.",
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      "body": "![pexels-photo-315117-1[1].jpeg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmepfbxrKHENHGt3rq7NXg4KvH414CcfYMA7RyWaQrifxq/pexels-photo-315117-1%5B1%5D.jpeg)\n\n## First Magazine Cover Featuring Bitcoin\nAt the height of the Dotcom bubble, in the late 1990’s, virtually every magazine cover (including non-financial titles) featured some sort of Dotcom company as its main story. One could not stop by a newsstand or bookstore without noticing some story about a Dotcom in their magazine section. So, one of the indicators of where we stand in the [stages of a bubble](https://henrykwongcpa.com/can-2018-be-the-end-of-bitcoin-cryptomania/) is the amount of magazine covers that feature the specific asset class. As of this month (January 2018), *Fortune Magazine* will be the first publication to feature Bitcoin in this month’s front cover.\n\n![f01covpromo[1].jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNmiVYEENf1HPipV44MFe8sRn3ZpFhj5yHGQ6n3jZcpPi/f01covpromo%5B1%5D.jpg)\n\nNow, do not freak out and start selling your Bitcoin, because more exposure will mean more upside. This is just an indication that the bubble is inflating, and we still have a ways to go to reach the peak. After all, this is the first magazine cover to feature Bitcoin, and the cover is from a financial title…which is only natural considering that Bitcoin is currently the hottest financial asset in the planet. So, no need to fret now. Start worrying, when you start to see Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies bombarded all over the magazine stands. If you walk into a *Barnes & Noble* and see Bitcoin or some sort of altcoin or an ICO featured on the cover of *Parenting Magazine*, then maybe it’s time to cash out.\n\n## Bitcoin Stabilization\nWith the entrance of the Bitcoin Futures, Bitcoin seems to have stabilized at the beginning of this year. Although going from $13,880 to $16,317 (at the time of this writing) within one week is hardly considered, by most people, to be stable, the current price movement is much more tamed compared to the volatility displayed in Bitcoin during 2017. But, then again, we are only in the first week of 2018. So, there is much to be seen in the coming months.\n\nMost people in the cryptospace want Bitcoin to make big moves so they can make more money quickly. However, I contend that a more stable Bitcoin is good because stability is one of the most important elements Wall Street and the government is looking for when making the decision to adopt a Bitcoin ETF. Regulatory agencies want to see assets that are somewhat “predictable”. And if Bitcoin continues to move the way it did in 2017, we can bet the regulatory agencies would be more reluctant to approve the Bitcoin ETF. However, since there’s reduced volatility, with the introduction of the futures market, we can definitely be more confident of an ETF approval in 2018.\n\n## Bitcoin is the “Cash Position” of the Cryptomarkets\nIf you have been trading in the Cryptomarkets in the past week, you will notice that altcoins have been on a wild run up. Bitcoin moved at a much slower pace compared to its alternative counterparts. This trend is most likely going to continue into 2018. This pattern is showing us that Bitcoin is becoming the “cash position” in one’s crypto portfolio.\n\nIf you have ever traded in the stock market, you will know that you have to deposit cash into your brokerage account before you can buy stocks. And if you invest correctly, chances are that your stocks will yield a much greater return that if you had your money in cash. This is exactly what’s currently happening with Bitcoin. It seems as if Bitcoin is the more stable asset now compared to altcoins, as in cash is more stable compared to stocks. As altcoins become overvalued and less certain, funds will return to Bitcoin as a safe haven, just as when stocks become overvalued and out of favor, investors tend to move their allocations back to cash. So, this is one of the trends we can begin to embrace as the young cryptomarkets continue to evolve.",
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      "author": "henryk81",
      "body": "![photo_2017-12-25_08-42-38.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmfDC4zQDGtsHFkBmvEjrhjr4U73wasCEakLxW3n8Es5a2/photo_2017-12-25_08-42-38.jpg)\n\nIf you thought 2017 was crazy for the cryptocurrency markets, then wait until you see 2018!\n\nLooking back in the year, we can see an exponential increase in the price of cryptocurrencies. Take a look at the screenshot of CoinMarketCap at the beginning of the year:\n\n![2017-12-25 08_52_18-Historical Snapshot - January 01, 2017 _ CoinMarketCap.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmazPqXhfpCagBdf4dzL8nEiuK1gfNhKnxuZGf2p8oDfjL/2017-12-25%2008_52_18-Historical%20Snapshot%20-%20January%2001%2C%202017%20_%20CoinMarketCap.png)\n\n*Vs now:*\n\n![2017-12-25 08_53_48-Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations _ CoinMarketCap.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmWDsL7u8ydAvNdFt1Gsm8hSfEMDRtwTSGRyEfZBWcRbWD/2017-12-25%2008_53_48-Cryptocurrency%20Market%20Capitalizations%20_%20CoinMarketCap.png)\n\nThe market capitalization of cryptocurrencies went from *$18 Billion* to about *$540 Billion*, this is a *2,900%* increase in less than twelve months! You might be saying to yourself *“This is friggin’ crazy!!!”* and/or *“I can’t believe I missed out on such a big opportunity!”* Regardless of what you may think, it’s still not too late to get in the game, and I am going to explain why.\n\n## Institutions\nLet’s take a look at the number of Cryptocurrency Hedge Funds operating for the most recent years.\n\n![morgan stanley.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmc7wWc34Ap2CRbNcyA5yQSTtDbZi7iTSYhgLpM4owMiWd/morgan%20stanley.jpg)\n\nAs we can see, as the number of hedge funds increase, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased dramatically. The reason behind this is because most people with a lot of capital usually spend most of their time working on what they are good at doing and don’t have the time to look at the markets or spend any time researching for investment opportunities. As a result, they tend to give their money to investment managers, such as hedge funds, to manage their money. When hedge funds prospect these wealthy people and show them the insane returns of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and tell them that they know what they are doing because they have been in the investments business for decades, these wealthy people believe them…especially if they already have a history with the fund manager and/or investment firm. The number of these private hedge funds will only increase in the coming year, without any of them going away anytime soon.\n\n## Entrance of the Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)\nWith the advent of *CBOE* and *CME Futures*, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other governmental authorities may finally allow ETFs in the financial markets. In the above, we can see how private hedge funds can affect the market considerably. With ETFs, this effect will be magnified significantly, and there are reasons for this. First, ETFs are easily traded on almost any platform (i.e. – E-Trade, TD Ameritrade, Interactive Brokers, basically any stock trading platform you can think of, will make ETFs available for trading). Second, trading with these platforms is a lot easier than signing up to a private hedge fun.\n\nNowadays, if you want to sign up for a hedge fund, you will most likely need to be an accredited investor and have to meet the fund’s definition of a qualified investor. And then you have to sign an application form, wait for a response. Perhaps, you might want to get lawyers involved if the transaction involves a large sum of money. Chances are that you might want to meet everyone on the investment team to see what you are getting yourself into. After the meeting, you may want to negotiate a reasonable management fee, and then finally you will have to write them a check. All this probably takes a couple of days. With ETFs, you can just deposit money into your trading account and hit “Buy”. And if you already have money in your account, just “click” the Market Order button, and you will have instant exposure to crypto in your investment portfolio. The ETF makes the whole ordeal a lot easier, with a lot more accessibility to the general public.\n\n## This Time will be Different with the SEC\nFor those of you who have been in the crypto game for a while, you may be thinking that the SEC has rejected cryptocurrency ETF applications in the past. What makes you think that they will allow ETFs this time? The answer to this question lies in one word: *Futures*. The introduction of the futures markets allow funds to hedge against the wild swings of the crypto markets. In the financial industry, we have this concept called *“fiduciary duty”* or *“fiduciary obligation”*. I other words, anybody whose profession involves handling other peoples’ money cannot use the money in inappropriate ways, which includes placing client assets into extremely risky speculative investments. Under the definition of fiduciary duty, pension funds, along with many other financial management firms, cannot place too much risk in their portfolios. However, with the newly created futures contracts, pension funds (among other institutions and ETFs) can hedge against the wild volatility of the crypto markets. And hedging is extremely crucial because crypto markets are traded 24 hours a day @ 7 days a week, and we don’t know what our friends in the other side of the world will do while we are sleeping.\n\n## The Recent Sell-Off\nIf you have been following the news lately, you might have heard there was a recent pullback in the crypto currency markets where Bitcoin lost almost one half of its value within less than one day. For people who are new to the crypto space, you might have freaked out and panic sold during this period. It’s always easy to say that you will hold, in good times and bad. However, when it all comes down to it, do you really have the stomach to watch the market drop like there’s no tomorrow within minutes and stay rational throughout the whole entire time? Most people probably cannot stomach this kind of volatility and that’s okay. Crypto is not for everybody. But needless to say, the selling did stop, and the worst is probably behind us, for now. There will be other future sell-offs very similar to the one we had a few days ago. In fact, there is speculation around the rumor mill, saying that there could possibly be one more major sell-off before January 15th, 2018, which can lower the price of Bitcoin to the $8,000 level – this happens to be in the 100-day Moving Average support level. Again, this is just a rumor. Chances of this happening is very slim.\n\n## Catalysts for 2018\n*Christmas.* Have a happy, joyous, and Merry Christmas for everyone who is reading this. I’m hoping that you are meeting with loved ones and enjoying this time with the people you love in this great time of the year. And as I’m typing this, people from all over the world are getting back with their families, and similar to what happened in Thanksgiving, people will convene with their families and talk about Bitcoin, which can lead to more users on Coinbase.\n\n*New Year’s.* It’s a New Year, New You. Many people probably take the Holidays as a time to self-reflect and evaluate what they can do differently in the year to come. I am pretty sure many people are thinking about their financial futures during this time of self-reflection. So, for all these people who have been putting off taking action on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, they may finally get off their behinds and do something about it. A study was done recently, asking people if they are aware of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The study concluded a good majority of people know about Bitcoin, but only a handful of percentage of them actually hold any Bitcoin or crypto in their investment portfolios. Like in most things in life, most people are talk, with no action. However, New Year’s is usually a time when most people take massive action. So, we could see more users entering this space very soon.\n\nAdditionally, January 1st marks a very important day in many hedge funds’ calendars. We can presume that a multitude of hedge funds raised money during the end of 2017, being that Bitcoin was all over the news with its giant run-up towards the end of the year. And the news of the CBOE and CME futures also gave fund managers more incentive to jump into the crypto train because they can now hedge risk for client funds. All these newly created funds would have filed all their required paperwork to the appropriate governing agencies and collected all the checks for their raised funds by now. For many of these hedge funds, their Fiscal Year will begin on January 1st. The very beginning of the year is usually when they start making purchases and taking positions in the market.\n\n*Coinbase.* Coinbase, which provides an on-ramp fiat-to-cryptocurrency service, announced on November of this year, that they will be adding more options to the list of available cryptocurrencies you can buy with your US Dollar of EU Euro during 2018. My predictions for these new options include *Ripple (XRP)* and *Ethereum Classic (ETC)*.\n\n*The “Legitimatization” of Crypto in the Financial Industry.* We are starting to see more and more traditional financial software recognize cryptocurrencies as an asset class, including *Bloomberg Terminal* and *Interactive Brokers*. This can just leading to greater adoption…not so much as a currency, but more of an asset class in the investment space…for cryptocurrencies. One might say that how could crypto be worth anything if it’s not doing its intended purpose? Well, crypto is still very young in this stage of development. Because of its volatility and seemingly deflationary characteristics, it is very hard to tell if Bitcoin could be a medium of exchange in the near future. Only time could tell. But for now, it’s considered an asset class, and we just have to go along with it.\n\nI have said this many times in the past, and will continue to say this: There are still many doubters and naysayers, regarding crypto, out there. And as long as there are doubters and naysayers, we know we have not reached the peak of the bubble yet. Many of these doubters and naysayers are probably going to jump on the bandwagon as soon as ETFs come out because it will be so easy for them to make some easy gains at a click of a button. At this point, they will probably stop doubting and naysaying, and that’s when you know: It’s time to get out of Crypto.\n\n\n\n*Caution:* Be careful. Keep your eyes on the *Asset Bubble Curve* and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Don’t be dumb. Make your $$$, don’t be greedy, and never look back.",
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      "body": "![stages_bubble.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmT4haTiKGnvbxgfm1x5jGfLhMp9QVLWxhQiyHty1LVVjy/stages_bubble.png)\n## The End of the Beginning\nAs we all know, yesterday was the introduction of the *CME Futures* for Bitcoin, which came about smoothly without any major glitches. Today marks the first trading day of the *CME Futures*, along with the *CBOE Futures* on the *TD Ameritrade: Think-or-Swim* platform. So, what does this all mean? The end of the beginning is upon us. The beginning, meaning that Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are still obscure terms, which most people are not familiar with. After Thanksgiving Weekend and Bitcoin’s reach to the psychological milestone of $10,000, people all over the US finally paid attention to the price explosion of this digital currency. Now everybody wants to get in on the action. Over 100,000 new users are signing up to *Coinbase* on a daily basis. For the past few weeks, you could not go by one day without having someone mention about Bitcoin, Litecoin, or some other cryptocurrency. You probably heard about Uber drivers talking about Bitcoin, the hairdresser down the street probably told you Litecoin is better than Bitcoin. But, does all this excitement signify the end of the Bitcoin Cryptomania? Perhaps, there are few things we need to observe before making such conclusions.\n\n## The Asset Bubble Cycle (Picture Above)\nIf we take a look at the featured picture above, we notice that there are many parts of an asset bubble. There’s the Take off stage, which was when *Satoshi Nakamoto* wrote Bitcoin’s Whitepaper and handed the project over to the Bitcoin development team. The development team worked on the project, introduced and promoted this new technology to the world and made Bitcoin what it is today. Of course, there are still many flaws in the tech, itself. Regardless, the Take off stage is long gone. This stage was followed by a First Sell-Off, which happened with the whole *Mt. Gox* fiasco. This was when Bitcoin had a run up to $1,300, but plummeted down back to the lower triple digits due to a hack in what was, at the time, the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange. But sure enough, Bitcoin was able to fight its way back to Media Attention phase, which we just passed. The media attention phase was (and is) when all the news channels started blasting headlines about Bitcoin. Not just the financial news, but the local news as well. Just the other night, I saw a news report from a local news channel *WPIX*, regarding Bitcoin Futures trading with an $18,000 price point. When things like this hit the local news, then you know even the Average Joe probably know about Bitcoin.\n\nSeems to me, we are currently in the midst of the Enthusiasm stage. Now, I have multiple friends and associates interested in opening up Coinbase accounts. Many are still waiting to get their accounts verified. Some are waiting for their bank accounts to link to the app. Coinbase became the #1 app on Apple’s Appstore, not too long ago. People are definitely enthusiastic and jumping on the bandwagon. So, does this mean you are too late? According to many people in the community, there are “Waves” of new users. Each Wave consist of a batch of newly verified accounts on Coinbase. We have seen what the most recent “1st Wave” did to Crypto. Bitcoin jumped to $19K, Ethereum jumped into the $700’s, and Litecoin jumped into the $300’s levels. Please remember this is just the 1st Wave, with many Waves to come. So, you only missed the 1st Wave, don’t miss the 2nd one. And of course, you don’t want to be in the last Wave, when everything is about to implode.\n\nTo complete the *Asset Bubble Cycle* observation, after the Enthusiasm stage, we have the Greed stage…this is probably when Wall Street starts cashing in on Crypto Exchange Traded Funds (or ETFs). This is when the BIG Money comes in. If you think that Crypto is in a bubble now, then you haven’t seen anything yet. Afterwards, we have the Delusion and New Paradigm Stages. This is when you start hearing from the big newscasters hailing Crypto to be the *“Next Big Thing”*, spewing how *“Things Are Different This Time”*…just like how they were saying that the Dotcoms were “The New Economy”. You’ll see this not only in news broadcasts, but you’ll see this on all the major magazine covers, as well. Of course, we are currently not in that stage yet. But, we will be there…one day. Just don’t be fooled by greed when the day comes.\n\n## Basic Economics: Supply vs Demand\nThe Legendary Investor, *Kenneth Fisher*, predicted the *Dotcom Bubble Burst* by looking at the Supply vs Demand of stocks during the 1990’s. Of course, he looked at more than just Supply vs Demand, but this was one of his simplest analysis on how the market was going to perform in the late 90’s. He examined how at the beginning of the Dotcom Bubble, there was a gargantuan demand for technology stocks. This was when all of the bigger, more established, higher quality tech companies were coming into existence. At some point, the demand reached its peak and started to dwindle. During the dying down stage, many of the Dotcoms and tech stocks were bought up already, with new Dotcoms IPO’ing every day. At this point, the new Dotcom IPO’s were just not as high quality or exciting as their predecessors. There was an overflow of stocks in the financial markets, when there was very little demand for such securities. The low demand with high supply of stocks was one of the catalysts to the Dotcom Bubble Burst.\n\nIf we were to take the above analysis one step further, we can surmise there’s only a limited amount of money in the economy. As more IPO’s enter the market, we can only sell one stock to get into another stock, meaning we need to deflate one company’s stock price to inflate another one’s. So, there’s only so much supply the market would allow before all stock prices start deflating.\n\nWhich brings me to the next point with cryptocurrencies. As we all know, Coinbase is signing up more than 100,000 new users every day, and there are thousands upon thousands still waiting to get their accounts verified. These people are eager to get into the cryptomarkets ASAP. So, we can see the demand for cryptos overwhelmingly engulfs the supply. And the last time I checked, Coinbase is still one of the top apps on the Apple’s Appstore. So, the demand is still HUGE.\n\n## SEC Regulation on Initial Coin Offerings (ICO’s)\nMost techno geeks and Libertarians will say that regulation on crypto is bad, for obvious reasons. It can stifle the growth of crypto, along with taking away some of the freedoms associated with cryptocurrencies, which is after all one of the main purposes of crypto: Freedom. However, regulation is not all that bad in my point of view. You know why? Regulation makes crypto “safer” and would allow for mass adoption by the general public. Most importantly, regulation limits the supply of ICO’s available in the market. Before the SEC stepped in, there were dozens of new ICO’s coming out on a daily basis. Most people cannot tell if the ICO’s were legitimate or scams. Joe Schmoe from next door could create a website and a Whitepaper and start collecting funds for his new “project”. We can all see the problem behind this. What’s more damaging is the continuation of unregulated ICO’s would lead to an oversupply of cryptocurrencies in the market, thereby dampening the demand for this new asset class. In other words, even if there’s a giant demand for cryptocurrencies, the humongous influx of ICO’s (especially the scams) would diminish the demand quickly. Regulation would weed out the scams and allow legitimate ones. Not only would this make the cryptomarket a better and safer investment ground, but this will ultimately limit the amount of ICO’s in the market. And remember in economics, when there’s great demand with limited supply, equilibrium price moves higher.\n\n## When Will This All End?\nMark my works: The Bitcoin Cryptomania will end next year, 2018. Just kidding! Well, not really. If you have been trading crypto in the past year, or so, you will realize that whatever happens in the stock market takes only a small fraction of time to complete in the cryptomarkets. In other words, while it takes a couple of years for the Stock Market to go from a bottom, to a recovery, and then a bull market, followed by a correction, and bear market, and then back to the bottom, the cryptomarkets complete this cycle within weeks. So, we are talking about an extremely fast and short time frame here. Of course, the futures markets are created with the intention to slow this all down, however Bitcoin is still moving very fast compared to traditional markets. So, if we go back to the Asset Bubble Chart (featured picture above), while it may take about three to four years for an asset bubble to blow up, cryptomarkets can take months. Now, I am not spreading Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt *(FUD)*. I am just keeping everybody’s eyes open to look at the warning signs of what may ensue in the very near future.\n\nJust remember that when you start hearing Jim Cramer speaking about how *“Cryptocurrencies is the new thing now and is the way of the future”*, and that *“This Time It’s Different,”* and when you start noticing magazine covers featuring Bitcoin all over the place, and if you notice a sudden drop in the sign ups on Coinbase among other cryptocurrency exchanges, then you know it’s time to take your profits and enjoy your new found wealth.",
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      "body": "![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmXGafQLihHFf9wwqFC5ngAzYg42HTbaxv6ahFBGLwtrMN/image.png)\n## The Lottery Ticket Rule\nOK, imagine this: There’s a *$800 Million Jackpot* for *Mega Millions* happening tomorrow evening. How much money are you willing to put in lottery tickets within the next 24 hours for a chance to win this *once-in-a-lifetime* prize? Remember, if you do not buy any lottery tickets, you have zero chance of winning. But, if you put in at least one dollar, you will have a very slim chance. Regardless, you will have a chance, which is better than no chance at all.\n\nNow, take that number and multiply by 52. This should be your initial investment in the cryptomarkets. So, if you are willing to put in $20 for a chance to win $800 million, then allot $1,040.00 as your initial investment in your baby crypto portfolio. Some money is better than no money in crypto. If you do not have $1,040.00 right now, then start saving $20/week and *dollar-cost-average* your way into your crypto portfolio. You do not have to risk your life savings, and your house to buy *Bitcoin* or any other cryptocurrencies. For those who do not know, you can actually buy fractional “shares” of any kind of cryptocurrency. For example, you can buy 0.00000001 of a Bitcoin if that’s all you can tolerate or afford. So, if you have a very low risk tolerance or if you are just plain broke, then you can buy as little Bitcoin as you want. No shame in having a small piece of the crypto pie in your investment portfolio.\n\nJust remember to never get too greedy. Because when you start seeing those YUUGE gains, you will be tempted to put your life savings into cryptocurrencies. Don’t be dumb. Only invest (or speculate) with the money you are willing to lose. Good luck!",
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      "body": "![Bitcoin-futures-price-graph[1].png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmfY1zSBWr7bjSN7PFxCTCuQgh3Pa2KDjrdfk9booNA7d6/Bitcoin-futures-price-graph%5B1%5D.png)\n\nIt’s been awhile since I made a post on my blog due website issues. But now my site is back up, and I am ready to rock and roll.\n\n## Bitcoin Futures Launch\n\nFor those who do not know, Bitcoin futures just launched trading on the *Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE)* right now as I am writing this, and will launch in the *Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)* eight days from now. Supposedly, the futures market will allow more liquidity and reduce volatility in Bitcoin, which as we all know is a crazy roller coaster ride. There’s a big argument between investors and speculators who disagree whether or not futures can actually affect the price of Bitcoin. So, I will give you my take on how this all works.\n\n## Cash Settlement\n\nFor starters, the futures market is cash-settled, meaning that there is no delivery or trading of actual Bitcoin in the Cryptocurrency Markets. In other words, if you purchase or short a futures contract on Bitcoin and, in the process, make a profit through a closing position or a contract settlement, you will not receive or lose any Bitcoin. Instead you will get your profits/losses in the form of a cash payment or a reduction in your margin account based on the closing price of Bitcoin at the time of settlement.\n\nHere’s an example. If you purchase a Futures contract that will allow you to purchase Bitcoin for $15,000 @ the end of January 2018 for $1,000, and the price of Bitcoin goes up to $20,000 by then. Your profit would be about $4,000. In this case, your account will be credited an extra $4,000. The other side of the transaction will not have to buy Bitcoin to deliver to you. In other words, the futures contract is nothing more than a wager on the price movement of the underlying asset. People who are not familiar with how futures contracts work are afraid that institutions will short the heck out of Bitcoin futures, thereby driving Bitcoin prices down. Sorry, this is not how the Bitcoin futures work. Institutions can short the living daylights out of the futures, but if Bitcoin prices continue to go up, then they will lose their shirts on their short sales. They are essentially on the wrong side of the bet. It’s almost like betting for or against your sports team. You can make large wagers in either way, but it will most likely not affect the outcome of the game…of course, unless there’s some sort of collusion or funny business going on. But, that’s beside the point here.\n\n## Market Sentiment\n\nOK, so there’s no direct impact from the futures market on Bitcoin prices, but can the futures market influence the underlying asset in any way? Well, there’s market sentiment. For instance, if the futures indicate a very bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin, then it will keep institutions and new retail investors at bay for the time being. In other words, it will stop further capital injection into the Cryptocurrency markets. Markets are very psychological, especially when the markets are driven by retail investors. Large short positions in the futures will create fear in new investors’ minds, which can stop new money from entering the Cryptomarkets. However, the reverse can be true.  A bullish sentiment in the futures market can send Bitcoin prices to the moon. Hence, the futures market can really affect the general emotions and behaviors with what goes on in these markets. And let’s not forget, emotions and sentiment is a big big driver in markets.\n\n## Arbitrageurs\n\nPerhaps a larger and more direct effect on how the futures market can play into Bitcoin prices involves the arbitrageurs. An arbitrage is riskless profit made through the exploitation of large price differentials in different exchanges, misevaluation of an asset, or just plain taking advantage of “dumb money”. An example of an arbitrage would be if Microsoft is selling at $100/share on the Nasdaq and $80/share on the NYSE. An arbitrageur would buy shares from the NYSE and sell them on the Nasdaq exchange for a quick $20 riskless profit. So, how does this all apply to Bitcoin futures?\n\nLet’s say there a big price differential in the futures market, where institutions bid up the futures price to $20,000/Bitcoin. The current price of Bitcoin is about $16,000. Arbitrageurs would take this opportunity to short Bitcoin futures and buy up actual Bitcoin to close up the price gap, which would, most likely be somewhere in between the two prices. The opposite will be true if there’s a large downside price differential, where arbitrageurs will short Bitcoin and buy up futures contracts to meet at an “equilibrium” price. This system was inherently built in to smooth out the volatility of Bitcoin (or any other asset) over the long run. But, as we can see, arbitrage transactions do involve the actual purchase and sale of actual Bitcoin, which will, in fact, affect Bitcoin prices.\n\n## Problems\n\nAlthough what I have written above makes sense…at least to me, it makes sense…there are inherent problems with the above scenario. First and foremost, will the Cryptocurrency exchanges be able to handle the new influx of institutional transactions caused by arbitrage opportunities? For instance, GDAX (which is owned by Coinbase) is one of the largest Cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. GDAX crashed multiple times when peak volumes occurred during the past year. Second, with the inherent volatility of Bitcoin, will the CBOE and CME be able to functionally operate with multiple price swings (with more that 10% deviation) occurring daily? As most of us know, the CBOE and CME have switches which halt trading when markets are too volatile. Switch limits are placed in the single-digit % category, which means that the switches can go off multiple times per day. Third, will the Cryptocurrency exchanges be quick enough to convert Bitcoin into cash and vice versa? Sometimes there are lags in transactions, being that Cryptocurrency exchanges are still relatively new. Arbitrage involves great speed. In fact, many arbitrage opportunities are conducted with bots nowadays. So, a lag in transaction speeds can really kill arbitrage trades. Forth, are the fees low enough to justify arbitrage trades? Some Cryptocurrency exchanges charge high fees on trades. So, would arbitrage trades yield big enough profits to justify the effort? Who knows? 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