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      "permlink": "the-economic-and-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface",
      "title": "The Economic & Environmental Cost of Bitcoin — Part II — Executive Summary and Preface",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><em><strong>All data used in this paper is as at Block 534,240, mined on 29 July 2018. Network Difficulty was roughly 5.95 trillion. Hash Rate was roughly 42.6 EH/s. Price on the Bitfinex exchange was roughly USD$8200. It should be noted that price on 9/8/18 was roughly USD$6400 — a number that aligns very closely with this model.The changes in mining ecosystem metrics since January 2015 are shown below:</strong></em>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HynwfbFbVNM&amp;index=2&amp;list=PL6WOW2bn3ewDFk2D5DL9pepgE5vM_shHn</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>This paper serves to update the assumptions used in a prior version of this research from February 2015<a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_edn1\">[i]</a>, and provides a systematic methodology of modelling the environmental and economic costs of Bitcoin. Furthermore, the paper will provide a thorough discussion on the economics of Bitcoin mining to support the underlying model assumptions. Comparative data with the Gold Mining industry will also be revisited.</p>\n<p><strong>Based on the assumptions set forth in this paper, the model has estimated the average cost to mine one bitcoin to be roughly $6,450.</strong> It should be noted that this research is an inductive, bottom-up estimate, with the intent to provide a ball-park estimate. A sensitivity analysis has also been undertaken to demonstrate range of costs under different scenarios, which shows a realistic range of <strong>average</strong> mining cost of between <strong>$5400</strong> (driven by aggressive electricity price assumptions), and <strong>$7500</strong> (driven by hash rate increase assumptions). Due to the nature of competition in the Bitcoin mining market, costs that are significantly higher than the market price of Bitcoin can generally be ignored in the short term. <em><strong>Running the model again on 11/8/2018, using the exact same assumptions and methodology yielded an average mining cost of $6200 — which happened to be the market price at the time. Cost to mine has decreased due to the launch of the Bitmain Antminer S9j last week. A second confirmation of our rough estimate’s assumptions.</strong></em></p>\n<p><strong>Major Assumption Updates</strong></p>\n<ul>\n  <li>The previous version of this research omitted the cost and impact of air-conditioning to the network, so the tonnage of CO2 was underestimated by over a third. It also did not capture the impact of manufacturing, packaging and air-freight transportation of ASIC mining rigs, or the impact involved in the resource extraction or recycling process. The new methodology set forth in this paper captures these items, and the result is a <strong>Bitcoin network that exhales 63 million tonnes of CO2 per year — about 0.12% of global greenhouse gas emissions</strong><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_edn2\"><strong>[ii]</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_edn3\"><strong>[iii]</strong></a><strong>,</strong><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_edn4\"><strong>[iv]</strong></a> <strong>(37 Gt CO2 + 16.5 Gt CO2e). Of the 160,000 TWh of energy generated globally each year</strong><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_edn5\"><strong>[v]</strong></a><strong>, the Bitcoin Network chews through about 105 TWh/year (0.0661%). It should be noted that all figures include the impact of the manufacture of ASICs, which represent over 50% of all emissions generated.</strong></li>\n  <li>In early 2015, the fee market was almost non-existent. In 2015, the average daily miner’s fee revenue was 22.4 BTC. For the six years between 2009 and 2015, the average was only about 15 BTC. In the past 6 months, daily revenue has been very consistent, hovering at just under 50 BTC/day. To that end, this extra revenue has been accounted for in this update.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><strong>Acknowledgements</strong></p>\n<p>Thank you to Lena Klaaßen for her review of my methodology and calculations.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><strong>References</strong></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_ednref1\">[i]</a> McCook, H. 2015, “An Order-of-Magnitude Estimate of the Relative Sustainability of the Bitcoin Network” <a href=\"https://www.academia.edu/7666373/An_Order-of-Magnitude_Estimate_of_the_Relative_Sustainability_of_the_Bitcoin_Network_-_3rd_Edition\">https://www.academia.edu/7666373/An_Order-of-Magnitude_Estimate_of_the_Relative_Sustainability_of_the_Bitcoin_Network_-_3rd_Edition</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_ednref2\">[ii]</a> The World Bank, “Total greenhouse gas emissions (kt of CO2 equivalent)”, <a href=\"https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE?view=chart\">https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE?view=chart</a>, (accessed 21 July 2017).</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_ednref3\">[iii]</a> Janssens-Maenhout, G. et al, 2017, “JRC Science for Policy Report” <a href=\"http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/booklet2017/CO2_and_GHG_emissions_of_all_world_countries_booklet_online.pdf\">http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/booklet2017/CO2_and_GHG_emissions_of_all_world_countries_booklet_online.pdf</a> (accessed 21 June 2018)</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_ednref4\">[iv]</a> Kilvert, N., 2017, “Paris agreement slipping away as record global CO2 emissions predicted for 2017”, <a href=\"http://archive.li/zpYnW\">http://archive.li/zpYnW</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://medium.com/@hassmccook/the-economic-environmental-cost-of-bitcoin-part-ii-executive-summary-and-preface-5714d06487a3#_ednref5\">[v]</a> International Energy Agency, 2017, “Key World Energy Statistics”, <a href=\"http://archive.is/PFlG3\">http://archive.is/PFlG3</a>&nbsp;</p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "The Economic & Environmental Cost of Bitcoin - Part I",
      "body": "This article is the first in a 10-part series on the Economic & Environmental Cost of Bitcoin. We will be revisiting my work from 2014 (https://goo.gl/UZ9B3e), which had a look at the relative sustainability of Bitcoin compared to Gold, and the banking industry. We won’t be revisiting banking in this series, but we will revisit Gold.\n\n<iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/xdBWo3_ZAyk\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; encrypted-media\" allowfullscreen></iframe>\n\nBefore we can get a good estimate of the economic and environmental costs of sustaining the Bitcoin Network, we need to understand several underlying principles & concepts, namely:\n•\tPart I - The relationship between Energy & energy, and between Bitcoin and bitcoin\n•\tPart II – Executive Summary and assumptions update\n•\tPart III - Bitcoin Macroeconomics\n•\tPart IV - Perfect Competition & Bitcoin Microeconomics\n•\tPart V - Perfect Competition & Managerial Economics\n•\tPart VI - Economic Inputs & Drivers in the running of the Bitcoin Network\n•\tPart VII - Environmental Inputs & Drivers in the running of the Bitcoin Network\n•\tPart VIII will then demonstrate our model of Calculating the Cost of a Bitcoin, then, as mentioned earlier, \n•\tPart IX - we will have a very thorough look at GOLD VS. BITCOIN and finish off with a bit of discussion to put everything into perspective.\n\nIf you want to skip ahead, you can read the full report, which contains all reference links and citations. It’s important to note that data in the report is from the end of July 2018 and things can change very rapidly when it comes to the hash rate growth of the network , and changes in mining technology and hardware prices - not to mention the market price of Bitcoin.\n\n\nBITCOIN & ENERGY...\nTo understand the nature of Bitcoin and its ties to energy (spelled with a lower-case e), one needs to understand the concept and nature of capital-E Energy. Energy is the prevailing force in the universe - both Father Time and Mother Nature. It cannot be created or destroyed, only transformed from one state to the other. It is the finite but infinitely divisible, shape-shifting sole ingredient of the universe. Its force cannot be stopped, only harnessed through its good graces.\n\nLET THERE BE LIGHT…\nThe Big Bang can be considered the “Birth of all Energy and Laws of Nature”.  Bitcoin’s “Big Bang” was the mining of the Genesis Block and the setting in motion of the Laws of the Blockchain. Energy is split infinitely into units of lower-case energy and mass (calories, joules, pounds, kilograms etc.), just as Bitcoin is infinitely split into units of bitcoin – no mass, just energy. From here, the link between Energy & Bitcoin becomes evident when looking at Nature and Life, and the economic evolution of humans.\n\nENERGY, LIFE, AND THE ECONOMY...\nAt the most primal level, the instinct of Life is to survive. This is done by being efficient in obtaining and using energy in the form of calories from food. Energy is Life, and Life is sustained by energy.  Plants get their energy from photosynthesis. Predators do this by consuming more calories than they use to hunt prey. In addition to covering base caloric needs from food, Human Civilisation has evolved to the point where we can transform Energy into a state of Power (fire, steam, coal, batteries, fuel cells, etc). This has taken us from cavemen harnessing fire to cook food millennia ago, to much more advanced energy technology from fossil fuels to renewable sources. Humans now expend their calories in the pursuit of currency and money to purchase their food calories, and to be consumers.\n\nCURRENCY vs MONEY…\nThere are huge differences between currency and money. Money is finite, whereas currency is not. In abandoning the Gold Standard mere decades ago, our paper currency became backed by nothing but promises. Ever since then, the value of currency has tended to zero, and money to infinity. Currency violates the rules of Energy by being created out of nothing (aside from the comparatively infinitesimal energy used to print out currency). Disrespecting nature has led to dangerous levels of global wealth and income inequality, and widespread social and economic suffering. No form of life has defied Energy (i.e. Nature) and survived in the long term, and this has been the case for billions of years. \n\nFIRST LIFE…\nCryptocurrency is the “Life” of money, of which Bitcoin was “first-life” – literally converting energy into money. It has evolved to keep meeting market needs, and sprouted a thriving cryptocurrency ecosystem. Bitcoin was designed to last as long as humans do, wherever they are in the universe with a communications link. Obviously, in the distant future, if humans have stood in the face of Energy and not harness it in a clean and renewable way, they will perish. Therefore, as we continue to advance technologically, the Bitcoin Blockchain will be a PERMANENT EMISSIONLESS STORE OF “MONETARY ENERGY” – money secured and proven to be both finite, and EARNED THROUGH HARD WORK (literally, “Proof of Work”), using massive amounts of energy in the process.",
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