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      "body": "Song lyrics 18 Bars of Shiba (4/4 60bpm):\n\nHip hip hop hop I rise to the top\nI lead you follow you better run little pup\nDown to the pub go drown your sorrow\n\nI never fall my enemies I maul chew ‘em\nSpit ‘em up like toys Doge you\nGot no choice go cower in the corner you have no\nHonor no you’re nothing but a joke\nEven Elon’s mom doesn’t want you nope\n\nShush shush little pup Shiba to the top\n\nHip hip hop hop I rise to the top\nI lead you follow you better run little pup\nDown to the pub go drown your sorrow\n\nI never fall my enemies I maul chew ‘em\nSpit ‘em like toys I rise through the noise\n\nI’m a hunter I never falter up to the top I\nFly like a kite other dogs I fight\nGoing to the moon? You loon not soon\nYap Yap you prattle Shiba wins the battle\n\n\n![shiba-dance-1080.gif](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdjyuQ1wypeaVNSr7xjTNwT9mxRy6MDGu2vVQGQw2kVJp/shiba-dance-1080.gif)\n\nAnyone up for the challenge?\n\nhttps://youtu.be/1wQVKxM9c-w",
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      "body": "Congratulations @gmoss! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@gmoss/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@gmoss) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=gmoss)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "**p. 132 –136**\n\nIn yet another size instinct example there’s room for pause on a different issue, perception. On pages 132-133 the author talks about two murders, one barely getting a mention in the media and another being widely reported. A woman killed by her partner, something that apparently happens often, and a man killed by a bear, which apparently is pretty rare. The bear incident got more media coverage.\n\nThe takeaway, as presented in the book, is that—despite what the media might have us think—caring about domestic violence instead of bears could save a lot more lives. The room for pause lies in the fact that something that happens often is at risk of being disregarded, not just by the media, but by everyone. It’s like [immunotherapy for allergies](https://acaai.org/allergies/allergy-treatment/allergy-immunotherapy), you get exposed to the allergen often and your body can tolerate it better over time. That’s good for allergies, but becoming insensitive to violence, human rights violations? How about systematic discrimination?\n\n[Stoicism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoicism) would argue going through those tough situations would make you better able to handle anything difficult that comes your way in the future. But history has shown that becoming accustomed to violence and human rights violations leads to trouble and when it comes to systematic discrimination there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence that it does not make those exposed to it stronger; instead, it creates problems both to the individual and to society. \n\nSo while FACTFULNESS would want you to stop and compare the numbers to be able to have a more accurate picture of a specific issue to make better decisions, there’s another issue to consider. What can be done about the tendency to accept as normal something that happens often?\n\nNo good answer to that question, but the solution to the size instinct is revealed on pages 134-136 and it’s the 80/20 rule. Briefly, it suggests looking out for the largest numbers and looking more into that.\n\n*The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading [the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)*\n\n**Previous**\n[Week 23](https://steemit.com/science/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-23)",
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      "body": "**p. 128 –132**\n\nIn these pages, Hans Rosling talks about the size instinct. First, here’s some practical advice: “So if you are investing money to improve health on Level 1 or 2, you should put it into primary schools, nurse education, and vaccinations” (page 129).\n\nIn order to avoid being misled by the size instinct, the author suggests trying to always compare numbers. Don’t just use one, especially a large number, to form an opinion. As an example, he mentions the number of dead babies. It’s in the millions. It’s awful to think about it. But apparently, that number is a lot smaller than it used to be. It’s not OK for millions of babies to be dying, but by comparing the numbers we might be able to more accurately determine what works in reducing that number.\n\nOne can’t help but to stop and think what kind of results would get by doing something like that with migrant integration numbers per country and time periods. What worked in the past and would it work today? Having a quick look on Google I stumbled upon [this research paper, titled “Immigration, integration and ghetto formation”](https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S0129183103004504). \n\nThe paper’s author uses a physics model and the results of the simulation say that the rate of immigration and the intensity of the integration measures can affect the formation or the dissolution of a ghetto. Logically, that makes sense. Certainly one can come up with multiple other variables that would affect the formation or dissolution of a ghetto. Nevertheless, even if we take into account the fear instinct and the size instinct, the immigration rate in certain countries has increased the past few years and integration methods—since ghettos continue to form—don’t seem to be set at the right intensity.\n\nOn pages 131 – 132, Hans Rosling offers a different type of example about the size instinct based on his personal experience in Vietnam. It’s about the size of war monuments and their respective size compared to the years each war lasted. There are multiple thoughts that come up reading that story. Here’s a brief one: history—personal and otherwise—puts things into perspective.\n\n*The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading [the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)*\n\n**Previous**\n\n[Week 22](https://steemit.com/science/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-22)",
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      "body": "**p. 123 –128**\n\nAt the beginning of the fifth chapter, Hans Rosling tells a story from his time as a doctor in [Mozambique. ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozambique) By telling that story he illustrates how a person should change their thinking when dealing with a bad situation. For example, as a doctor, he was responsible for too many people with very few resources. It was far more useful and he managed to prevent many more deaths by focusing on preventive care than spending more time trying to treat terminal cases at the hospital.\n\nThat idea probably has a broader reach. Think about it. There are systems around the world with various degrees of success whether they are political, economic or educational systems. Many a country has tried a “proven” system only to see it fail. When that happens most probably attribute the system’s failure on bad implementation.\n\nWanting to build systems based on high ideals is great, but perhaps less than perfect would perform better. So instead of building systems based on theories, one should look more into what resources are available and what kind of an impact a system can have for the highest percentage of people affected. Then, after a certain level has been reached, perhaps it will easier and more beneficial to switch to another system based on higher standards.\n\nOf course, there are many faults with that idea but is the alternative better? Is a “good” system a better alternative when it cannot be implemented properly because of insufficient resources?\n\n*The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading [the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).*](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)\n\n**Previous**\n\n[Week 21](https://steemit.com/science/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-21)",
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      "body": "**p. 118 –123**\n\nThe final few pages on the topic of the fear instinct focus on terrorism. First, terrorism is an exception to the global trends discussed earlier in the book, which means it has gone up over the past decade. To be more precise, it has increased on all income levels except on level 4, the richest countries.\n\nThe author mentions the example of deaths caused by alcoholism along with the terrorist event example to showcase the damage the fear instinct can do in someone’s thinking. The risk of dying in the United States as an indirect victim of alcoholism, for example being in a car accident, is higher than dying as a victim of a terrorist act. Nevertheless, terrorist events receive more news coverage and the public fears such an event as much as other more likely to happen events.\n\nMy only first-thought objection while reading this was that perhaps that’s not the only reason why the fear of a terrorist attack is high. What if most people are just more used to the idea that car accidents—for many reasons including alcoholism—happen? What if it is a generally accepted risk? What if not only it is an accepted risk, but most people believe they can avoid it if they are excellent, super careful drivers? Whether that belief is right or wrong doesn’t matter. Most drivers believe they can handle a car, how many believe they could handle someone with a bomb? \n\nEven if there’s a sliver of truth to the thought that we may just be more used to car accidents than terrorism, then we need to pay attention not just to the fear instinct and how it influences us, but to how and why negative events become just another part of our lives.\n\nAs an aside, on page 119, the author talks about an experiment they did to check whether Wikipedia was a reliable source as an up-to-date terrorist events database. It wasn’t, or it was, but only when it came to data about the West. A first thought that came to mind when reading about this was whether a reliable database could be assembled using Twitter data. Certainly using online sources an AI could use independent verification methods and build such a database, right? That’s probably true of all data.\n\nOn that topic, I recently watched a webinar with [Peter Diamandis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Diamandis) and [Ray Kurzweil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil), where Ray Kurzweil described how managing to use realistic simulations of real-world scenarios (like driving) can provide an AI with sufficient data to learn a lot faster and a lot better. Simulations are already used for training to deal with and for predicting natural disasters effects, so it does make you wonder about the result of using AI in that way to everything that can be used for and not simply for drug discovery or autonomous driving.\n\nOne final note on the fear instinct comes from page 123 and it is about assessing risk. The author asks you to consider two things: first, the danger something poses and second, your exposure to it.\n\n\n*The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading [the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)*\n\n**Previous**\n[Week 20](https://steemit.com/life/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-20)",
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      "body": "**p. 114 – 118**\n\nHans Rosling offers even more convincing examples about how the fear instinct has helped humans to progress.\n\nUnder the ‘Contamination’ header there’s the example about how the environmental movement began and how the fear of little governmental oversight and the fear of lack of corporate ethics led to the current—thought of as sufficient—regulatory system. What I find fascinating is this little detail which was included in parenthesis “…though still not close to impressive coverage of the aviation system” (page 116).\n\nIt is remarkable to think that simply agreeing to share accident reports and implementing simple tools such as forcing pre-flight checklists can have such a good result in limiting airplane accidents and at the same time seeing that other sectors cannot achieve the same, despite similar efforts. \n\nOf course, the environmental issue is more complex than airplanes. Nevertheless, if we agree to work on humanity’s impact on the environment then shouldn’t we be able to agree to share impact reports and find solutions that, if universally implemented, the environment and humans would be better off?\n\nI suspect the lack of similar results may have to do with a cost/benefit analysis more than fear. Yes, we probably don’t fear fires, floods and other natural disasters as much as plane accidents, most likely because they are considered natural—meaning as something that there’s nothing we can do to prevent—but at the same time the financial benefits of business as usual (e.g. coal fuel versus renewable—although that’s starting to change) is more financially beneficial than other actions which would not only not harm the environment but would also protect it.\n\nBut if we collectively change our views of what constitutes as a benefit when it comes to the environment, perhaps the cost/benefits analysis would change and everyone would see that even the financial benefits are more than the costs of protecting the environment. It just takes a lot of work.\n\nAs a final note on the subject of the environmental movement, the author mentions [the book “Silent Spring”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silent_Spring) as the beginning of the movement in the United States, but early efforts had started in the 19th century in England, India and in the United States according to [this informative Wikipedia entry.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_movement)\n\nMoving on, the author attributes the current avoidance of beneficial vaccinations and extreme phobias with anything chemical-related on the memory of the fear which was caused by the lack of regulation at that time.\n\nThis is important. Based on what I’ve read so far about the fear instinct in FACTFULNESS I’d say that fear serves two very useful purposes: one, it helps us collaborate and improve on things, second, it helps us think about issues and to make better judgments. Unfortunately, there is also the possibility of making us think unclearly which can lead to irrational behavior.\n\nThe best way to go about it might be to recognize our fears and seek to educate ourselves on whatever issue troubles us or as the author says: “I love critical thinking and I admire skepticism, but only within a framework that respects the evidence” (page 116).\n\nThe example about the measles vaccine and the author’s suggestions are a must-read for anyone who is against vaccinations. In brief, vaccinate your kids against measles. The benefits are evidence-proofed.\n\n*The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading [the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)*\n\n**PREVIOUS**\n\n[Week 19](https://steemit.com/life/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-19)",
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      "body": "@@ -3831,8 +3831,171 @@\n week-18)\n+%0A%0A**MORE**%0A%5BHere's another example of the cycle of progress and some thoughts on software engineering...%5D(https://blog.eutopian.io/the-age-of-invisible-disasters/)\n",
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      "body": "**p. 112 – 114**\n\nContinuing on the issue of the fear instinct the author goes on informing us on various topics, highlighting how the fear instinct in humans has positively influenced progress and how it’s negatively influencing human behavior.\n\nThe examples presented in the book are worth reading as a whole. Here are only a few thoughts on some of the information mentioned in these pages:\n\nFirst, [the Chicago Convention of 1944](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Convention_on_International_Civil_Aviation), the place where the aviation industry decided on some common rules, built a form for incident reports and agreed to share those reports so that everyone could learn from everyone’s mistakes. The author of the book calls the Chicago Convention “one of humanity’s most impressive collaborations ever” (page 113).\n\nPlane crash deaths have diminished a lot since the 1930’s and we could say that that’s thanks to the fear instinct which prevented most persons to use airplanes at the time when plane crashes were a common occurrence. \n\nIn a way, it’s like a cycle which eventually breaks. First, there’s innovation: this new thing which can transport people from one place to another via the air, the airplane. Second, there’re the failings of that innovation, the plane crashes and people die. Third, there’re two opposing forces that result from the previous two steps. One is the fear instinct which prevents humans from using this new innovation. The other is the desire of a group to make this innovation widely used, either for making life better or for profit or both. With the two forces at work, we get progress. In this example progress was the Chicago Convention which helped to bring down the number of plane crashes. Or as the author puts it: “The fear instinct is so strong it can make people collaborate across the world, to make the greatest progress” (page 113).\n\nWhat a quote. It immediately got me thinking about today. There are all these industry conferences happening around the world all the time, collaboration around the clock all year long, yet nothing like the Chicago Convention seems to happen. I’m guessing it’s because of intention. The intention of that industry meeting in 1944 was specifically to find a way to reduce plane crashes. Most conferences’ intention is marketing and networking. This probably results in collaboration sometimes, but it’s not the same, is it? It’s like that 10,000 hours of practice finding: it’s not enough to simply log in 10,000 hours of a certain activity; it has to be deliberate practice.\n\nOf course, as you will likely point out, most conferences, if not all, don’t deal with issues that are so dangerous people fear they will die from them. Sure, but then there are also all those official meetings of politicians, collaborating with the clear intention of solving specific problems, important, life-threatening even, problems and yet the progress we get from those doesn’t seem to be good enough either. So maybe it’s not simply about intention or the fear instinct….\n\nAnother example in the book is about war and conflict fatalities. These have gone down too. The author makes sure to point out that this is not much comfort to the people currently suffering and dying in conflicts, such as in Syria. But he also reminds us that “things can be bad, *and* getting better” (page 113).\n\nThere’s a wonderful quotable paragraph on this topic on page 114. Here’s just one sentence from it: “Without world peace, you can forget about all other global progress.”\n\nThe Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading [the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)\n\n**Previous**\n[Week 18](https://steemit.com/science/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-18)",
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      "body": "**p. 105-111**\n\nThe author talks about the fear instinct using examples.\n\nWhat do people fear? Getting hurt, losing their freedom or getting infected. All these fears help people living on Level 1 survive. In contrast, people on Level 4 don’t have that much use of these fears because either the threat is greatly reduced or the necessary help is readily available and the chance of survival high.\n\nInstead, the fear instinct prevents the people on Level 4 from realizing how much better the world is at dealing with natural disasters for example. Deaths from natural disasters have decreased over the years and this is possible mainly because of international collaboration.\n\nA couple of thoughts here:\n\nFirst, I would argue that the fear instinct still serves a purpose on Level 4. The basic premise is that people on Level 1 do not have access to medical care or they can’t afford it so they need the fear instinct to avoid getting in such a need. \n\nMy premise is that natural disasters happen and no matter how well-prepared any country is, or how easily one can receive medical care, it is always best to know what one must do in an emergency. The fear instinct serves as a reminder and incentive to seek out that information.\n\nSecond, yes the number of deaths from natural disasters has gone down and it’s good to keep that in mind when bombarded with negative news about disasters and violence, but should we take this progress for granted?\n\nOn page 109 the author presents data and mentions that the deaths from natural disasters on Level 4 actually increased by 4 times during the period between 1991 and 2016 compared to the period between 1965 and 1990. The main contributor was the 2003 heatwave in Europe.\n\nWe’ve been hearing about weather phenomena getting more extreme in the future (on the news, but still…). We also see that even on Level 4 we cannot always be prepared against such phenomena. The most recent example, if I remember correctly, is the deaths in Japan due to a heatwave about a month ago. And finally, if international collaboration is the main reason a lot of deaths are prevented then we should worry about history repeating itself, returning to isolation instead of collaboration among nations.\n\nSo yes, look at the progress humankind has made, but don’t take it for granted. \n\n*The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading [the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)*\n\n**Previous**\n\n[**Week 17**](https://steemit.com/science/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-17)",
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      "body": "**p. 101-105**\n\nIn the intro of the fourth chapter, the author shares an interesting and funny personal story. The story is also a good way to introduce us to the idea of the fear instinct. As a personal side note, it also happened to be particularly \"funny\" since I had happened to watch the first episode of [\"Occupied\"](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4192998/) before reading it. Hint: the author's story in the book takes place in 1975.\n\nFurther on, there’s a short explanation about our brains and information. Briefly, there’s too much information out there and our brain cannot process it all. So we select a few pieces of information to focus on and we ignore others.\n\nHow do we do that? First, we seem to be attracted to stories which means to “information that sound dramatic.” (page 104, first paragraph)\n\nSecond, we have the attention filter. That filter lets information come through several holes. These holes are the 10 instincts the author analyzes in the book.\n\nSo far he’s covered the: \n\n1. gap instinct \n2. negativity instinct \n3. straight line instinct \n4. fear instinct.\n\nSo basically we have to be careful not to let the stories we hear about to formulate our worldview. Why? Because the media choose to go with dramatic stories. Why? Because we are predisposed to sit and listen to those.\n\nThat is good information to have and a pretty useful thinking to acquire.\n\nBut something seems to bother me a little bit and am not quite sure what. Yes, we all, to some degree or another, have realized at some point how these instincts have taken over and influenced our opinion, actions or worldview. But it’s not that simple, is it?\n\nI mean, beyond all the other “buts” I included in the previous posts, is everyone really thinking based just on these instincts? Yes, there are all these negative events we constantly hear about, but surely we are also familiar with how the world has gotten better over the years, for example. No?\n\nThe author has data to prove that no, most just focus on the negative and thus their worldview is skewered towards that. \n\nI think what bothers me has to do with the point of view I have that mostly the reason people seem to have a negative view of the world is not because they aren’t particularly familiar with the facts or overconsumed by negativity or fear, but because their relative position in the world stands at a higher level compared to the past. Based on that elevated position, their standards being more demanding, they are judging the current situation of the world and they find it unacceptable. More should have been accomplished. Everything should be better compared to what we have and what we could have.\n\nSo it’s more like ‘the world is not doing as well is it could or as it should’ instead of ‘the world is not doing well’.\n\nThat’s just an impression, of course.\n\n*[The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)*\n\n\n**Previous**\n[Week 16](https://steemit.com/science/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-16)",
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      "body": "**p. 92-100**\n\nThis chunk of information ends the chapter on the straight line instinct. The author covers all types of curves a trend might follow. \n\nThe instinct is to assume a straight line just like most people seem to be doing about growth population. So the book suggests to “remember that curves come in different shapes.” (page 100)\n\nI’m going to comment on three graphs. First, the two S-bend curve graphs about literacy and vaccination. \n\nWhat the S-curve describes is that the phenomenon will start at a low percentage at level 1, and then it will keep increasing until level 4 where it will turn flat. So basically, literacy will keep increasing until it reaches  100%  (or thereabouts).\n\nLiteracy, the ability to read and write, is very important. The term has been expanded these days to include other competencies as well, such as the ability to use computers in order to gain knowledge and to communicate, among other things. [Source:]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy)\n\nTwo thoughts come to mind. First, fragments of articles and documentaries about modern-day illiteracy (reading and writing). So there are people who despite being illiterate managed to move just fine in life, meaning they got jobs which paid enough for them to survive and have children which ended up not just literate but highly educated too.\n\nI’m assuming that if not impossible then it’s probably very difficult for something like that to be true these days. In fact, these days even the highly educated seem to have a problem with getting a job and some can’t afford to raise a family.\n\nSecond, as the expanded term of literacy proves, what it means to be literate changes. The bar is set higher and higher. \n\nThat way, it’s probably impossible for a population to ever reach 100% literacy level, right?\n\nSo although a phenomenon might follow an S-bend curve, perhaps higher income is not the solution. For example, reaching level 4 might mean that the majority of a population is literate, but that may not be enough. Perhaps higher income will be accompanied by a more expanded term of literacy accomplishment, but what if there’s a point where higher income can no longer influence the literacy level?\n\nPerhaps countries and people at level 4 should figure out what else might be needed for people to better their circumstances and not count solely on the S-curve. I suppose in a way, the talk about skill-based immigration, about trade schools and the calls for better cooperation between the education system and the job market are ways people and governments are trying to address this very issue.\n\nAs far as the vaccination graph goes, the first thought that came to mind was a level 4 country recently halting their vaccination program. \n\nFinally, the third graph is the doubling income graph on page 99. If you are thinking about how many millions you need for your life to change, perhaps you should simply start thinking about doubling your income.\n\n*The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading the book [FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)*",
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      "body": "**p. 89-92**\n\nThere’s some more interesting stuff on population growth in the next few pages from where the Week 14 post left off, but I’ll mention the most important takeaway because it’s worth it even if you hadn’t given it much thought.\n\nThe takeaway:\n\n“The only proven method for curbing population growth is to eradicate extreme poverty and give people better lives, including education and contraceptives.” (page 91)\n\nOne thought that came to mind when the author debunked the misconception that religion plays a role in how many children one chooses to have was about a documentary I’d seen about a couple living in the UK.\n\nFirst, this is part of what the author talks about. Because the media choose to tell stories about exceptions like the couple in this documentary, most people will end up thinking that a certain mentality attributes to the issue of having lots of children. That is easy to understand. I remember the guy telling the reporter that he was not going to stop having children. He already had eight, if I remember correctly.\n\nAt the time, of course, I wasn’t thinking about the issue of overpopulation. I assume it was partly because of the point the documentary was trying to make, but the issue was that this guy was claiming benefits. So although he was not able to support all those children he was going to keep at it.\n\nThe author mentions child labor and potential child death as the primary causes of people having more children, causes which are a direct effect of extreme poverty.\n\nSo maybe this guy is simply an exception because clearly, his motivation has nothing to do with survival rates or child labor. Or maybe, it is this government-made policy that creates the issue. In that case, although you have a policy that has nothing to do with manipulating the population’s growth, you end up with influencing it anyway.\n\nThe question here is could this create an issue? I am not referring to overpopulation, but a social issue. These children, although they will benefit from a level 4 income situation in terms of education and health they will still not benefit as much as the children of couples who choose to have fewer children in order to offer their kids better education and healthcare.\n\nThe benefits policy is very important for the reasons it was created. But if misused by people, no matter how small a number of people abusing the policy, it could potentially create an issue.\n\nThis has nothing to do with what the book is saying, but it does highlight the importance of government-backed policies and the impact they can have whether they are positive, negative or both.\n\nAnd since this might sound a bit vague one can look at the [one-child policy in China at this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy). There’s a section titled “Potential social problems”.\n\nI suppose one point of these first thoughts could be that eradicating extreme poverty and increasing education and access to contraception may save the planet from overpopulation, but other factors, such as government policies, could have an effect as well.\n\n**Previous**\n\n[Week 14](https://steemit.com/science/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-14)",
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      "body": "**p. 75-88**\n\nThe topic of these pages is population growth. There's a nice explanation about the topic if you have no idea what’s expected to happen in the coming 80 years or so. There’s so much information in this chunk of the book, I’ll just mention the main idea which I found most interesting and one objection.\n\n**First, the objection.** \n\nHans Rosling talks about the straight line instinct. How people are inclined to think everything increases in a straight line. I’m not sure that’s 100% true and the author mentions two examples that explain exactly that.\n\nFirst, he talks about the Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Even he—an expert—was slow to realize at first how the infection was moving faster than most would expect. One person was on average infecting two others before dying instead of one. \n\nSecond, he mentions the fact that most people wouldn’t assume that the rate their child grows in inches will keep increasing the way it did when it was a baby. That is, because people know approximately what to expect in terms of height and age they avoid thinking their kid will keep growing in height in a straight line.\n\nSo based on lack of information most people assume the earth’s population is going to keep increasing in a straight line. Based on the data presented in the book this isn’t true.\n\nThe author has data to back up his claim that most are clueless about this. Well, I’ll agree with that. My objection is simply that while most people probably have no idea by how much the population is expected to grow they have a vague idea of it increasing and that’s it. The by- how-much-it-is-growing question isn’t even considered.\n\nI have to admit though, if shown the graph then yes, just like the author proves in the book, I guess most people would fill in a straight line. So maybe I have no objection after all.\n\nThe UN future forecast mentioned in the book is 11 billion by 2100 by the way; up from the current 7.6 billion in 2017 (page 82).\n\n**Now, the most interesting idea.**\n\nThe population on earth was considered to be in balance with nature say up until 1900 when it reached 1.5 billion. Then it went out of balance till say up to 2000 when it reached 6 billion (page 88).\n\nThe good news is that a new balance has already been achieved. And this balance is “better” than the old one. This is because, in the old days, people were having lots of children, but only a few survived until the age when they could have had children of their own. So the balance was achieved via death. These days, the balance is achieved via choice, since most people choose to have fewer children. The reasons behind this choice are the decrease in extreme poverty and the increase in education and contraception.\n\nSo as long as we keep improving on these three things the world population will be in balance with nature.\n\nThat is positive. \n\nEven though I had stumbled upon articles and comments about the population growing to unsustainable levels I don’t think I had taken a pessimistic view on growth population for some reason. Nevertheless, having this view as presented in the book Factfulness is even better. Thank you, Hans Rosling and family. This is good to know. Now, all we have to worry about is natural destruction.\n\nHere are two somewhat worrying thoughts coming to mind despite the positive population growth view.\n\nFirst, the fact that women still do not have 100% access to contraceptive measures or the right to abortion in some parts of the world (and in other parts they may not be able to afford either). \n\nSecond, the issue of climate change. It seems we not only need to try to stop negatively influencing the environment, but to also start adapting to it. Adapting to it doesn’t just mean to prepare and find solutions for the damage that has already been done, but to start planning our cities and our lives based on the environment instead of solely what we need or want as humans.\n\nThat sounds wrong, doesn’t it? I mean, why wouldn’t humans want to live in a super friendly, awesome environment? Well, it seems like we do, but something seems to get in the way… Maybe it’s the economics of the world?\n\n\n[*The Spur of the Moment Guide to FACTFULNESS is a series of posts of first thoughts while reading the book FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling (this is an affiliate link).*](https://amzn.to/2OeLKkH)\n\n**Previous**\n[Week 13](https://steemit.com/science/@gmoss/spur-of-the-moment-guide-to-factfulness-week-13)",
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      "body": "I'll check it out, thanks!",
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