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      "body": "![cycle.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfSJLBGxeM4AqEYsY467wJz7VbTGFzrMK2JuHvdtJ1cTZ/cycle.jpg)\n\nLike many things in life, the crypto market also moves in cycles. At first everything is great, people are FOMOing, the euphoria is overwhelming, you are checking your portfolio every 5 minutes... Aaah, the riches, the possibilities. Usually it all begins with Bitcoin, altcoins follow, even the lowest of the shitcoin crew shows enormous potential. Then the first signs of a reversing market start to emerge. Prices start to stabilise, and soon a walloping correction begins. You know the drill: panic sells, blood on the streets etc. And yes, it is your blood as well. Looking at your portfolio becomes a pain, so you ignore it, sometimes you don’t log in for weeks. What you don’t know can’t hurt you.\n\n![ostrich_effect II.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaEwvoRtQ3Sd2yY1d1cbqRk7QBX84S3LXmLJYNLfnPNjx/ostrich_effect%20II.jpg)\n\nGoing full on ostrich (“avoiding apparently risky financial situations by pretending they do not exist.”) is the worst thing you can do. Selecting information that suits you, will get you on the beginning of that cycle with no new findings, all the while making the same mistakes all over again. That's why it’s important to understand *why* we are the way we are, if there's a will to change, and maybe even embrace and learn from those negative experiences.\n\n### <b>The Ostrich effect</b>\n\nI would like to start with a study done in 2009 on investors’ decisions to check the value of their portfolios in rising markets vs. falling markets. [The ostrich effect](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226770945_The_Ostrich_Effect_Selective_Attention_to_Information) predicts people's preference to avoid or delay probable bad information, even if in doing so they'll reduce the quality of their decisions. \n\n<h6>![logins.PNG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcgMvt983BkhefqimCtns4vcfNGX9ykKjajDL5YdJdzCk/logins.PNG)\n*Karlsson, Loewenstein and Seppi: The Ostrich Effect: Selective Attention to Information*</h6>\n\nOn the graph above, we can see S&P 500 index in period from January 2, 2006 to June 30, 2008 in black, and in grey the number of times people log in to their accounts. No surprise there, when markets were falling investors logged in less frequently than in rising markets. People suspect things are bad and by logging in to their accounts they receive definitive knowledge, and guess what, it doesn't feel good. Ostrich effect confirmed!\n\nEven while reading this, you’re probably, in some aspects of your life, avoiding bad info. If you're building a successful startup, what could possibly go wrong? Your idea is the next big thing, right? Well, according to some research by some Berkeley and Stanford members, in the tech world, around 92% of start-ups fail within the first 3 years days. Yet even with those readily and freely available depressing statistics, and numerous books and articles on the topic, people are starting businesses with crazy optimism and very selective attention to information.\n\nSomehow, even with that insufficient preparation for future events, the human race advanced pretty far. According to neuroscientist [Tali Sharot](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982211011912) *“optimism may be hardwired by evolution into the human brain.”* Evolution chose optimism over pessimism so we could imagine possible scenarios and then strive to achieve them while handling the risk by avoiding negative information about the future. She also points out overly positive assumptions can lead to disastrous miscalculations. For example, my ex boss smoked four packs of cigarettes a day, and he never went to health checkups because he was too afraid they would find something. He had two strokes last year. He's ok now but the quality of his life has deteriorated drastically because he shielded himself from receiving possible negative, but critical information about his health condition. In market conditions, it is often not a matter of life and death, but behaviour patterns stay the same.\n\n### Expiry date on happiness\n[Meyers, Wilson, and Gilbert (2000) and Mitchell, Thompson, Peterson, and Cronk (1997)](https://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/files/Documents/Faculty/MevisRatnerLevav.pdf) found evidence for a “retrospective durability” bias, whereby people overestimated how happy they were after positive emotional events in the past.\n \nA simple and recent example, the Football World Cup was two months ago, and your happiness for your team winning lasted a day or two. But if someone asked you how long would you be happy if your team won, you would seriously overestimate your perception of the longevity of your happiness. Similarly, I saw the new Lenovo Yoga Book C930 presented at IFA Berlin, and it has all I really need in one gadget. I had a feeling it would make me endlessly happy, but the fact is, I bought new headphones a few days ago, and they truly were the source of my happiness for that day... Now they’re just headphones. Focusing your decision only on how good something made you feel in the past, is not that good of a strategy. Turns out, happiness has an expiry date way shorter than we think.\n\nCognitive neuroscientist [Sara Bengtsson](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3150849/) found the brain responded differently depending on whether a person was prepped with positive words like “clever” or negative words like “stupid”. When people made a mistake after being told how clever and smart they are, she observed an increase in activity in a part of the brain involved in self-reflection and recollection (anterior paracingulate cortex), a part that has an important role in our ability to predict future intentional social interactions as well. By contrast, when the participants were prepped with negative words, there was decreased activity in that brain region after a mistake was made. The brain was prepared to make a mistake, and did not show signs of surprise or conflict when it actually made a mistake.\n\nIt’s not a bad thing to start with a bit of pampering, and if it doesn’t turn just perfect, that brain region will activate and possibly prepare you on how to handle similar events in the future. Unfortunately, even though people appear to have learned from negative experiences, they still suck at estimating how long will that bad feeling *really* last (Wilson, Meyers, Gilbert). So keep your heads up!\n\nTry to be observant next time you buy a new mobile phone or go through that difficult discussion with your “significant other”. Think about how long the happiness of buying that new gadget *really* lasted, and has that conversation *really* made you miserable for that long. Write it in your notebook, make your own expiry dates for positive and negative emotions.\n\n### Optimism with a splash of pessimism \nI found the study made by Elisabeth Phelps and Tali Sharot extremely interesting. It showed severe depression took people into a deep dungeon of pessimistic bias, while healthy people went into their own made up eden of unrealistic optimism. The best combo was optimism with a splash of negativity, hence people with mild depression were quite accurate with future predictions. But how do healthy individuals with crazy amounts of unrealistic optimism, and depressed citizens of the cold foggy town of Despair and Misery find that perfect middle ground? \n\n![fly-on-wall.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbpDGJsGW8oY7zfzAk4WoFUncyRJRNP1oWuYjzxGDLngN/fly-on-wall.jpg)\n\nAccording to one study made by Ayduk and Kross, a [\"fly-on-the-wall\" perspective](http://selfcontrol.psych.lsa.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/2012_4_Mischowski_Kross_Bushman_JESP1.pdf) can soften reactions to both positive and negative experiences. When people reflect over negative experiences from a self-distanced perspective, they perceive the broader situation rather than staying in the victim role. Try analysing your emotions, maybe not in the heat of the moment while you're screaming at your child (that takes some serious zen), but rather once your head “cools off”, after the negative emotions that overwhelmed you have subsided.\n\nResearch indicates people who self-distance while reflecting over negative experiences, over time become less distressed when they think again about them. I believe this practice can help happy campers to be less afraid of the dark side, but also those sad pandas out there to realise not every event in their life was used as an inspiration for a “red wedding” scene.\n\n### Bubbles, make you forget your troubles\nStay positive! It is the thing that motivates you, that drives you, what gets you out of bed in the morning. But also be aware of the negative. It can guide you, teach you, and help you with your future decisions. If investors from the graph in the article checked in more frequently into their accounts and managed their portfolio, maybe they would have noticed the red flags, and the crash of 2008, for them, wouldn’t have been so devastating.\n\nThe crypto world of Bitcoin and its little altcoin buddies is where most of my investments currently lay. That is the reason I want to know everything, the good and the bad. Selective information will give me only half the truth. Remember, negative emotions are necessary for positive ones to exist!\n\nIf you’re too lazy to read the entire article I’ve compressed main thought into one silly song. You’re welcome :)\n\n*Bubbles, make you forget your troubles!\nHowever, don’t ignore that lurking trouble,\notherwise your problem will double,\nand leave your portfolio collapsed in rubble.*",
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      "author": "coin.info",
      "body": "**Coins mentioned in post:**\n\nCoin | | Price (USD) | 📉 24h | 📉 7d\n- | - | - | - | -\n**BTC** | Bitcoin | 6330.557$ | _-1.3%_ | _-12.99%_\n**ETH** | Ethereum | 194.944$ | _-3.24%_ | _-32.7%_\n**HOT** | Hydro Protocol | 0.011$ | _-3.23%_ | _-19.73%_\n**NANO** | Nano | 1.974$ | _-4.78%_ | _-31.72%_",
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      "body": "Congratulations @fraulein-crypto! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/firstcomment.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@fraulein-crypto) You made your First Comment\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/firstcommented.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@fraulein-crypto) You got a First Reply\n\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2018-09-07\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/7CiQEO.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2018-09-07\">SteemitBoard - Witness Update</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/steemfest-steemitboard-support-the-travel-reimbursement-fund\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmawPYDAwfrQM8YU6ejD1f87g64cvsmEFn8RQKHJMs4zxg/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/steemfest-steemitboard-support-the-travel-reimbursement-fund\">SteemFest³ - SteemitBoard support the Travel Reimbursement Fund.</a></td></tr></table>\n\n> Support [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)! **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "body": "Thnx, and thanks for clearing things up super quickly and painlessly :D",
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      "body": "Good article ! subscribed to you and I hope for a mutual subscription",
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      "author": "steemcleaners",
      "body": "[Source](https://medium.com/@JoLeeSchneider/an-honest-review-holochain-hot-a489a2b6bab8)\n[Plagiarism](http://www.plagiarism.org/plagiarism-101/what-is-plagiarism/) is the copying & pasting of others work without giving credit to the original author or artist. Plagiarized posts are considered spam. \r\n\r\nSpam is discouraged by the community, and may result in action from the [cheetah bot](https://steemit.com/faq.html#What_is__cheetah).\r\n\r\n[More information and tips on sharing content.](https://steemcleaners.org/copy-paste-plagiarism/)\r\n\r\nIf you believe this comment is in error, please contact us in [#disputes on Discord](https://discord.gg/YR2Wy5A)",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://medium.com/@JoLeeSchneider/an-honest-review-holochain-hot-a489a2b6bab8",
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      "body": "*This article was published on Medium before the Holo ICO. Things have changed for Holo since then, but still, I think there are some useful information you could benefit from.*\n\n![holo pic.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQC8r1CKhRqQHs6pAfDdBNJZ8KNqnrcJTnAz2hdd3BDSA/holo%20pic.jpg)\n\nIf there’s one thing that the cryptosphere hasn’t lacked over the course of it’s existence ever since the Bitcoin whitepaper, it’s ambition. From replacing Paypal, to making distributed supercomputers, from decentralizing banking to a P2P Airbnb, the blockchain tech underneath it all has sparked some of the most ambitious projects of the past half a decade. But there’s one in particular that has dwarfed every other in sheer ambitiousness: enter MetaCurrency.\n\n“Wait a second” you’re probably thinking, “what is MetaCurrency? I though this was about HoloChain?”. Yeah… I was (still am :D) a bit confused as well… As far as I understand, MetaCurrency is more or less the organisation that is trying to disrupt and revolutionise the whole world’s financial system. It’s the “idea layer” behind everything they’re doing. Then, on top of it, is Ceptr, the tech layer, the implementation of the ideas in MetaCurrency, and then, as part of Ceptr, there’s HoloChain.\n\nHoloChain itself is just one part of the whole project, just the “blockchain layer” (that isn’t really a blockchain) for the hosting and computing of the decentralised internet (which is Holo). In short, architecturally it’s essentially “Git: the blockchain, part 2: the torrenting”, in the sense that conceptually it’s relatively similar to a blockchain, except it’s not made out of blocks but rather distributed hash tables, and it’s not one huge chain but lots of small interconnected ones, because “local” nodes don’t need to know the global state, so consensus is reached only where needed (i.e. there’s no need for Bob and everyone else to know that Anna paid Kevin 10$ for the room for one night, it’s just a waste of resources).\n\n<b>Pros:</b>\n\n- <b>The whole project started before even Bitcoin</b>, although the Holochain itself (which is just a small part of Meta Currency) has been in development since 2016. It’s absolutely enormous in scope, and they’re making real, tangible, verifiable progress… It’s neither vapourware, nor just an idea in a whitepaper!\n\n- <b>Great developers with great code</b> (read Andre Cronje’s review of it, he’s actually a coder, unlike me :))\n\n- <b>User-centric architecture</b> (they’re calling it agent-centric, which is probably more accurate ;)) afaik, this is the only something-chain solution that has been designed from the grounds up with the user in mind, not the data the users generate.\n\n- <b>Not really a blockchain!</b> Thanks to it’s architecture, it should be extremely scalable and efficient. It’s so lightweight, you should be able to run a node on a mobile phone.\n\n- <b>The MVP is pretty much ready for alpha deployment</b>… But that’s not all! If you call in the next 30 minutes, you’ll also get a whole bunch of dApps included in the price! stuff like HoloTwitter, HoloKYC and HoloSlack that will get you started in using and developing for Holochain…\n\n- … and for only 99$ more you can get your own HoloPort Nano! (yes, <b>they even have their own hardware</b> for sale so you can get a node up and running in no time and for relatively cheap, depending on specs).\n\n- <b>Good token economics.</b> Particularly when you consider how big and ambitious this project really is, 25 million € isn’t that big of a deal, and no waiting, you get your tokens right away!\n\n![holo image.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSMpi4GtC57QZP4UwdF99KrieQwTdhLvSwnFDQJ18ui19/holo%20image.jpg)\n\n<b>Cons:</b>\n\n- <b>Virtually no marketing</b>, so little “mainstream” hype\n\n- <b>Rumors of no particular interest in getting listed on exchanges</b>, so there may be a possibility we’ll only see it on IDEX and the link for quite a while…\n\n- Speaking of exchanges, there’s even less info about <b>what happens once the ERC20 tokens get converted</b> to the native HoloFuel token. They’re probably just keeping quiet because they’re professionals and don’t want to announce stuff until it’s set in stone (like WanChain?), but i think it’s still important to mention.\n\n- <b>“Volatile” total supply.</b> The project aims to keep the price of the token somewhat stable by increasing (and decreasing?) the supply (i.e. no hard cap on max supply, like Ethereum).\n\nApologies for the longer review this time, but this is such a huge project… and I haven’t even covered all of it! This is easily the biggest, most impressive project I have seen since I entered this space last year. In fact it’s so big and ambitious I’m a bit afraid it might be ahead of its time and the world won’t recognize it, like some projects during .com era. Wake up, world! :)\n\nWebsite: https://holochain.org/",
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