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      "title": "中心化货币机构真的那么不堪？从“还原真实美联储”反思比特币",
      "body": "![9D010DA8-925F-4137-B646-F36D54EA3376.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcXAJUqUm363MGjioeJbqAvCboHkm2NVH6x5dFwRVQdkR/9D010DA8-925F-4137-B646-F36D54EA3376.png)\n\n这是阅读《还原真实美联储》的读书摘要。作者王健是美联储前员工，对美联储的控制能力、政策制定能力总体是持支持态度的。而文末基于这篇文章，抛出了比特币去中心化货币系统面临的问题，欢迎大家讨论拍砖。\n\n\n\n还原真实的美联储\n\n美联储系统（Federal Reserve System）主要由属于政府机构的美国联邦储备局（Federal Reserve board）和属于私人机构的美国联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank）构成。这样的组成其实就是为了“分权”，防止美联储被小部分政治精英或者金融精英操控。美联储系统是不受总统影响的，受国会制定《联邦储备法案》的影响。\n\n\n\n中心化的央行真的有那么不堪？\n\n途中灰色区域是美国经济衰退期间，20世纪30年代后美联储建立之后，可以看到经济衰退、通缩的频次和时间都是变短的，大规模的挤兑风险变少，从这个维度看美联储起到了它的作用。并且在30年代的大萧条时期、08年的金融危机期间，都通过其货币政策大大改善了经济形势，扭转下行趋势。\n![屏幕快照 2018-06-28 上午8.27.43.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaf7FoVcARFYGwPRoySNuMSGnFB5qens38sdxfBe2TjFN/%E5%B1%8F%E5%B9%95%E5%BF%AB%E7%85%A7%202018-06-28%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%888.27.43.png)\n\n\n美联储如何制定利率？\n\n美联储货币政策工具：公开市场操作（Open Market Operration）、折扣贷款窗口（discount Window）和储备金率（Reserve Requirement Ratio）。\n\n\n\n公开市场操作是最常用工具，它通常也被称为议息会议，影响联邦基金利率。公开市场操作由公开市场委员会制定，成员包括华盛顿联邦储备局7位执行委员，加上5个联邦储备银行主席。联邦储备银行有12位主席，他们当中每次只有5个人可以在会议上投票。\n\n\n\n美联储真的可以随意发行货币吗？——通胀为锚定的纸币发行\n\n目前主要政府发行纸币都不在于金银等贵金属挂钩，都是实行法定货币制度。与金银挂钩的货币政策一定程度可以限制政府滥发货币，但是为什么选择纸币的发币货币制度呢？\n\n\n\n金本位的缺点\n\n1. 金本位制度下，通缩非常普遍，家中家庭和企业还债负担。（19世纪后半期美国黄金短缺，农作物价格相对黄金持续下跌，农民用于生产的贷款、住房贷款不会随之降低，家中农民还债负担。）\n\n2. 短期价格波动大的情况，中央银行调整的灵活性低。\n\n3. 发生在银行挤兑等危机时，央行创造货币的能力有限，金本位约束了央行作为最后贷款人应对金融危机的能力。\n\n\n\n美联储的利率政策如何影响经济？\n\n美联储只控制一个特殊的短期利率——联邦基金利率。关于储备金账户（Reserve Account）。美国所有吸收储户存款的金融机构在美联储都有一个储备金账户。用于应付用户突如其来的提款需求。根据美联储要求，每个机构的储备金账余额不低于吸纳的短期存款的一定比例，这个比例就是储备金率，或者存款储备金率。0、3%、10%三档，存款储备金率可查：\n\n\n\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm\n\n\n\n流动性陷阱，零利率之后，货币政策何去何从？\n\n当联邦即将来临降低到0附近，美联储通过调节短期利率稳定经济的传统政策已经无路可走，通缩造成经济流动性陷阱。\n\n\n流动性陷阱也是主流中央银行把通胀目标设在2%而不是0的重要原因。离0利率的下限越远，更不容易出现流动性陷阱问题。那为什么不把通胀率目标定高些？这样离流动性陷阱就更远了？这主要是因为通胀率水平高，通胀会变得不稳定，在权衡流动性陷阱和高通胀带来的不稳定后，央行时间中发现2%的通胀率目标比较合适。\n\n\n\n量化宽松是什么？\n\n08年金融危机后，美联储已经把联邦基金利率调整到了0%左右，但是任然无法改变战局。09年以后，为了帮助经济复苏，美联储退出了另外一个非常规的货币政策：大规模资产购买计划（Large scale Assert Purchase Program），也就是通常说的量化宽松（Quantitative easing）。\n\n\n\n正常情况下遇到经济衰退，美联储买短期政府债券，增加市场上流动资金，造成联邦基金利率这种短期利率下降，进一步传递给长期利率，影响购房贷款、骑车贷款、投资贷款等长期利率下降，刺激居民消费、企业投资。\n\n\n\n当短期利率已经接近零，无法通过短期利率影响长期利率，那就直接影响长期利率，这就是量化宽松背后的逻辑。实行量化宽松，美联储直接买入长期债券（主要是政府债券）正价市场对产期债券的需求，长期债券价格随需求增加而上涨，造成长期利率下降。\n\n\n\n量化宽松是不是滥发货币？\n\n先看看扭曲操作（operational twist），它是美联储通过卖出短期债券，买入等量长期债券的方法，目标也是提高市场对长期债券的需求，从而降低长期利率。这种政策和量化宽松比较，不会增加基础货币总量，不对未来造成通胀压力。但是它面临的限制，是美联储持有的短期债券数量是一定的，用完了就没办法扭曲操作了。就必须依赖量化宽松。\n\n\n\n类需要知道什么是基础货币，美联储等中央银行直接发行的货币被称为基础货币，包括我们日常使用的纸币硬币，也包括银行存在美联储的储备金。也需要知道什么是M2，市场中货币的流通量旺旺通过M2衡量。影响通胀的事M2的增长速度，而不是M2，但是M2增速和通胀的关系不稳定。但是很多委员也同时担忧量化宽松带来的通胀问题。\n\n\n\n关于次级贷款\n\n20世纪90年代起，美国开始出现次级贷款，这个贷款条件非常灵活，比如贷款人可以采用零首付，甚至买房的各种税费都可以贷款支付。不夸张的说，你可以空手套白狼。这种贷款策略在房价稳定的时候不说，但是如果房价下跌，贷款人违约的成本低，反正没有首付，我就不要房子了。\n\n\n但是金融机构内部风险监管机构逐渐变得形同虚设，过分投机高风险的房地产项目推动房价上涨，强化了投资者对于房价只涨不跌的信心，在次贷推波助澜下，美国房地产市场泡沫越吹越大。知道2006年底，美国房地产价格见顶。这里有个标志性事件，雷曼兄弟，这个有百年历史投资机构因为过度投资房地产产业，面临房地产价格下跌后，破产。\n\n\n\n美联储应对次贷危机的动作\n\n紧急贷款、专项紧急救助、量化宽松。\n\n\n\n量化宽松到底对美国经济有没有积极作用？\n\n不同的学者对于这个问题的看法不同，比如达拉斯联储主席费舍、费城联储主席普洛斯额等对于推出QE3反对。其他国家对于美国政策的主要质疑点：第一，美元发行过多导致美元贬值，利于美国出口，影响其他国家向美国出口产品。第二，超发美元会引起石油在内的大宗产品价格上涨，造成通胀。第三，它会对国际金融市场产生冲击。\n\n\n\n美元贬值是不是美国在赖账？\n\n赖账的标准应该看通货膨胀率，而不是美元是否变质。举例：人民币美元汇率1：8时候，100万美元纸钞可以购买一架飞机。而汇率1：6的时候，如果美国美元发生恶性通胀，飞机还是100万美元，美国就美元变相赖账。在美联储以通胀为锚定的货币政策下，利用通胀西施美国债务的可能性相对弱。\n\n\n\n关于量化宽松是否影响中国经济，造成2009年之后中国的通胀？\n\n这个观点的主要路径是：第一，如果大量美元进入中国，由于采用固定汇率制，中国人民银行必须发行人民币来吸收这些美元，这样的观点被称为被动宽松。第二，美联储的量化宽松推高石油等产品国际价格，石油价格上涨进一步造成中国通胀。\n\n\n\n关于第一个路径，下图中，实线是用M2衡量的中国货币增长率，虚线是中国外汇储备增长率。08年底到09年底，中国M2出现创世纪的天量增长，然后中国外汇储备是只是温和增长，小鱼历史水平，作者的观点是：把中国M2天量增长归结为美元流入，得不到数据支持（暗地里说这个钱就是中国自己发行的？哈哈哈，就是4万亿财政刺激计划导致）。另外对外出口贸易在美国的整个贸易接口中占比不大，通过这个方式刺激效果有限。\n\n![屏幕快照 2018-06-28 上午8.27.52.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdVQG927ZRZfR5LkaPkMpvbTiDeCXow5drrfMREorYnHw/%E5%B1%8F%E5%B9%95%E5%BF%AB%E7%85%A7%202018-06-28%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%888.27.52.png)\n\n而关于中国的四万亿财政刺激，作者认为思路没错但是力度过大，造成人民币短期增长过快。抛出的讨论点是，4万亿突增是否造成中国房地产价格上涨？财政刺激更多流入政府重点扶持的项目，是否造成了中小企业融资困难？这些都是值得讨论，而不是很快的去下结论盖棺定论。\n\n\n\n关于第二个路径：石油价格不只是对应美元涨价，换算其他货币也是在大幅上涨。金砖四国的发展也客观带动了石油需求量，比如4万亿刺激中国居民的汽车购买，客观推高了石油价格。\n\n\n\n关于美联储小结\n\n正常情况美联储通过调节短期利率稳定经济，在短期利率降至零是，常规政策失灵，此时通过量化宽松直接降低长期利率，刺激经济。量化宽松对美国经济复苏产生了积极作用，但是作用大小和潜在风险在政界和学界讨论争议一直存在。2009年中国等新兴国家内部通胀主要由于国家自己经济刺激政策造成，非美国量化宽松直接造成的。\n\n\n\n中心化货币机构真的那么不堪么？区中心化的加密比怎么应对金融风险？\n\n最后抛出的这个问题，可能也是为什么沃伦巴菲特、比尔盖茨等人物一直对比特币没有看好的原因：\n\n\n\n“相对于股票、债权、不动产，购买比特币并不是一种投资，因为它缺少固有价值 ——巴菲特”\n\n“我觉得它是技术上的杰作，但是它所涉及的领域应该让政府保持主导地位——比尔盖茨”\n\n\n\n在中心化的货币体系中，政府可以通过调控的能力应对危机、应对通缩、调节通胀，虽然说比特币通过固定发行量，把通缩通胀的情况用系统的方式做了规避，但是不排除实体经济遇到问题，如果所有经济的计量方式未来集中在了去中心化的数字货币上，谁来当最后的贷款人？可能就是值得讨论的问题。当然，也不排除在历史的演进过程中，加密比也能找到它的“联邦基金利率、量化宽松、特殊贷款窗口……”\n\n\n\n另外一个讨论就是什么是自由，基于区块链去中心化的数字货币，他们建立在自由极客思想的基础上，认为全网公平的算力、权利，是维持平衡的条件。但是全球经济的面临问题的时候，应该是精英的巧思获得解决方案，还是完全民主获得的平等自由方案，更能给困境带来新的出路？这又是关于精英主义和自由平等的又一次讨论。关于量化宽松利大于弊还是弊大于利，政界学界都没有统一的观点，更何况关于自由和集中、精英与民主呢？哈哈哈",
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      "author": "foxeet",
      "permlink": "79kdcw",
      "title": "比特币的本质是什么？",
      "body": "## 第一个比特币怎么产生的？\n中本聪自己挖矿，由第一个区块奖励来的50个比特币，其中就有第一个比特币。所以比特币都是从挖取区块时获得的奖励创造的。而根据协议，总共到2140年会获得全量大约2100万个比特币。\n\n## 第一个比特币所在区块有什么信息？\n![1.jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYNrajmin21HssBZFvTyPfgvasuejskFRs9sy9w6YDXSe/1.jpeg)\n来看看创世区块，hash值是：[000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f](https://blockchain.info/block-index/14849/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f)\n区块里面不含上一个区块的hash值，没有交易信息。\n同时coinbase里面有中本聪著名的一句话：“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks” 2009年1月3日，财政大臣正处于实施第二轮银行紧急援助的边缘。\n这也可以让我们看看比特币的历史背景，2007-2008年正值金融危机期间，美国通过量化宽松政策，客观加大了流通货币量，中国2010年左右增发4万亿人民币。中心化货币系统带来了什么问题？国家机构如央行控制的货币系统在遇到国家经济受损的情况下，通过多发币的方式刺激经济的发展，客观上使个人手里的钱更不值钱。简单讲，为了国家利益，牺牲个人利益。\n在这样的背景下，以中本聪为代表的一波技术极客，探讨去中心化的货币体系，就不难理解了。\n\n## 关于比特币的价值的本质\n比特币的价值准确的说，是由全网的共识、共同信任。因为最开始的50比特币，以及后来累计到2100万左右，本质都是字符串，只是记录的各种声明。人们决定他有价值，可以在各个国家购买物品、换购法币，比特币就有价值了。这个和国家发行货币本质一致，当人们对美元的价值认可，你在全球大多数国家就可以用美元购物或者换购当地法币。当人们对贝壳价值认可，你就可以用贝壳换购物品，货币的本质就是一般等价物，这个一般，其实就是人们的共识、共同信任。\n\n欢迎关注微信公众号 学点啊逗逼 ，更新科技、设计、艺术、产品设计文章。\n![qrcode_for_gh_43e2344bd9f7_344.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYZCgjaas1zsRBtHhrdqGKe8QgXZJzwVPan2ESsRvct4h/qrcode_for_gh_43e2344bd9f7_344.jpg )\n欢迎打赏比特币：3QgitjYZGgi8uvS9LH4woMrDDW83JQgXUN\n![屏幕快照 2018-06-23 上午8.37.46.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNxjxqALiMpUfmKfgcctgmWknQ5p3JzUVhhQMr5BSqTff/%E5%B1%8F%E5%B9%95%E5%BF%AB%E7%85%A7%202018-06-23%20%E4%B8%8A%E5%8D%888.37.46.png)",
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