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      "author": "forexbeast",
      "body": "I first posted this on r/bitcoin (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7vczec/2018_2030_the_grand_battle_between_bitcoin/)\n\n\n*****\n\nI have seen things. Don't ask me how. My dreams can be cryptic.\n\nThe destruction of fiat has already begun in earnest, but we're only in the 1st inning. The next 10 years will be characterized by the destruction of the USD, and the rise of the Chinese yuan backed by gold.\n\nGold and crypto are the two twin pillars that will destroy fiat. Thanks to crypto we're looking at a resurfacing of a global consciousness and desire for a non-state backed currency, harkening back to the days of a gold-backed money supply. Throughout history, empires have risen and fallen. The strongest empire's currency has always been the choice reserve currency of that era, but as an empire grows complacent and the government officials decadent, so does the temptation to debase their currency. The privilege of being the reserve currency globally gives them a sunset period of 20-40 years as the inevitable decline happens. It all began when Nixon took the USD off the gold standard.\n\nBoth China and Russia has been quietly accumulating gold over the past 10 years, restricting exports and increasing imports of gold. China is the world's largest oil importer and is in the process of switching over from paying for oil in USD to yuan, and redeemable into gold. The ramifications are massive. Increasingly the world is turning back on the US and its currency.\n\nChina is clamping down on cryptocurrency heavily as it interferes with their grand plan: they plan to shock the world in 2019 by announcing that they will go back to a partial gold-backed standard. Not fully-backed due to constraints in monetary policy advised by their Chinese economists, but sufficiently so such that the world gains confidence in the yuan and central banks globally begin selling their USD in earnest from the current 60%+ weighting, demoting it to a 30%+ weighting in favour of yuan as it dawns on them the USD might have just lost its reserve currency status. In this chaos, as we see across all regime changes, central banks begin buying gold in earnest. Other countries respond by backing their currency with gold as well. China becomes the new global superpower.\n\nThanks to this, the gold price will move to all-time highs and start trading above $2k in 2019. This will see the beginning of a gold rush we've never seen before. Old and institutional money begins to pour into precious metals; new and speculative money pours into cryptos. Cryptos enter into a final blow-off-top a year later not unlike the 2000 tech top in 2020. Bitcoin crashes 70% from $1m to $300K. As this happens, the whole world goes all-in into gold and yuan as the new safe havens as this is simultaneously accompanied by a major sell-off across both equities and bond markets. The rout will not stop till the mid 2020s. Gold is now trading at $7k/oz and silver at $200/oz. In fact, gold, as is most asset classes, are no longer quoted in USD but yuan. Africa begins to wield significant influence in the global political arena with South Africa leading the charge, due to their massive gold holdings and gold mines.\n\nThe year is 2025. In the depths of a recession even more severe than the one we saw in 2009, the US government reveals they have been accumulating bitcoin since 2018, and have built a sizeable position of 500,000 BTC (equivalent to $250b with BTC trading at $500k). This sparks the re-birth of a new bitcoin bull run as the other central banks announces they too, now hold some BTC. Many central banks, especially the resource-poor countries who never saw the rebirth of gold coming, begin accumulating BTC as well. Many now fear Russia and China's dominance in the gold market. Despite gold being a decentralized store of wealth, the natural geographical distribution has made many other resource-poor countries bitter, and an unspoken alliance began taking shape as central banks secretly accumulate bitcoin. Countries begin to publicly denounce gold, even as gold ownership is quickly being transferred into the blockchain. Gold prices fall after entering a blow-off top in 2027.\n\nBitcoin begins to climb until it reaches a \"demand equilibrium\" with gold. By 2030, bitcoin is valued at $2m+ and represents a significant percentage of the global money supply and gold has fallen to $4k/oz. By the 2030s+ the world has transitioned to a fiat system that is completely transparent. All countries' reserves in both bitcoin and gold are publicly trackable on the blockchain. While fiat continues to live on, governments in the aftermath of the early 2020s recession now have learnt fiscal prudence and bond yields actually reflect market-priced default risk depending on a country's money supply vis a vis the value of the bitcoin and gold their central bank holds.\n\nThe economy never really recovered from the recession in the 2020s. Artificial intelligence had taken over most of the economy's jobs, and the wealth inequality continued to widen as more and more wealth accrued to owners of capital. The crash in the equity markets at the turn of the decade had also wiped out a generation's savings and therefore willingness to spend - the millennial investors who had gleefully piled into FAANGs as everyone turned euphoric into the last days of the stock market bubble. Deflation began to set in as the boomers started dying in record numbers, and consumer spending ground to a halt as nobody except the elites and the crypto-rich had any money to spend. By the late 2020s governments realized that a form of universal basic income was necessary or the economy would never recover, but a redistribution of wealth was not going to be possible. Countries came together and decided that a new UBI currency would be created, in direct proportion to the amount of bitcoin and gold each country owned. With every single individual having their own unique identity stored on the blockchain, this was easy and transparent to implement. This ultimately paved the way for a global common currency in 2030. Gold began to lose its shine.\n\nBy the mid 2030s, we entered a golden era for the human race as the wealth inequality came back down to levels unseen in the past 500 years. Productivity reached a new high, assisted by mature technologies that first appeared in the 2010s. Significant life extension, space exploration, nanotechnology, then the uploading of the human consciousness ...\n\nIn 2040, we encountered the Singularity.",
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      "body": "Having been involved in the crypto community for a few months now and having toyed around with the Bitshares platform myself, I am beginning to better understand what would ultimately make or break Bitshares. \n\n1) The ecosystem has not achieved escape velocity \n\nWhen I want to buy an altcoin, I should not have to leave the ecosystem and go to a centralized exchange like bittrex, and therefore incur extra fees. Even if the altcoin is listed, liquidity is so thin that it's pointless. I end up transacting elsewhere and my BTS is \"dead money\" in my BTS wallet. \n\n2) Not enough marketing\n\nThe tech's great and all, but that in itself is an insufficient condition for a coin to do well. Hype is incredibly important as it is a positive feedback mechanism. Hype -> more people buy the token -> they tell others to give it a look -> they follow the token, join the Telegram channel etc. With sufficient marketing, more users come and actually test drives the ecosystem leading to my previous point #1. \n\n3) Opportunity cost\n\nCrypto speculators are incredibly fickle. They will gladly dump an underperforming coin for something that's hotter. This is the concept of opportunity cost. Why put your money in a \"dead\" coin like BitShares when everything else is moon-ing? Even if you believe in BitShares there will be days when you wonder if you could make a quick double on another coin and you come back next month and you would still be able to buy BitShares for the same price. \n\n4) No sense of direction\n\nWhile decentralization has its benefits, a fully decentralized management team can never work. This is why humans have organized themselves into hierarchical reporting structures since the beginning of time, where there is a leader / central reporting structure. \n\nWhile I still continue to remain bullish BitShares for the time being, if there is no significant progress in these 4 points over the next 3-6 months as the rest of the cryptocurrency platforms continue to make strides, then BitShares is likely to go to zero by 2020 as BitShares loses the opportunity to take the lead in a very, very tight and competitive race. \n\nThe time is now or never.",
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      "body": "A lot has been said about Golos, but at the end of the day is it something that will challenge Steemit? Golos should not and will not cannibalize Steemit. In the economy we always see competitors co-existing in large markets. \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVH9USYLq6GgBEuZFP7whEKFEYLTkwqLCurhz22h2kYE8/image.png)\n \nSteemit and Golos are likely to co-exist as they serve very different markets. Drawing from history for an apt example, Russia has its own verison of Facebook known as VK, and as January 2017 had a dominant market position in Russia with 410 million accounts. This compares well with Facebook's userbase of 2 billion accounts, so Golos has achieved 20% of the userbase.\n\nKeeping that ratio in mind, let's compare that to their respective current market capitalizations. As I'm typing this, \n\nSTEEM: $315M\nGOLOS: $21M (about 7% of STEEM)\n\nThat's assuming STEEM is even able to become the largest of its kind in the world (the equivalent of a new age Facebook), while we can be relatively assured that GOLOS is far more likely to achieve market dominance in Russia given its focus on a singular community.  Furthemore, the  Russiancommunity is extremely strong and active, key to the success of any new blockchain application. Not many coins of such a low market capitalization have such a large community. Check out their Telegram group chat with over 1300 members (as of 25 Aug): \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYMGn5CiJ2uUFwLwdZ9Wxsc86g4hxf76rff6jpgLuwi1t/image.png)\n \nTheir GitHub account has 1650 commits and 22 contributors  (as of 25 Aug). That's a lot! Not bad for a coin trading at 7% of STEEM.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPeXYvvs3Ux5xXonz71C8kYuYbtzoBhXqdCV3HL7eGhzH/image.png)\n \nCompare that to Steemit which has 2068 commits and 30 contributors!  (as of 25 Aug)\n\nI strongly believe Golos will soon gain traction and should fundamentally be at least a double in price based on STEEM's valuation. Lastly, as an afterthought, Golos' circulating supply of coins is only half that of STEEM.\n\nDisclosure: I am long Golos.",
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      "body": "A lot has been said about Golos, but at the end of the day is it something that will challenge Steemit? Golos should not and will not cannibalize Steemit. In the economy we always see competitors co-existing in large markets. \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVH9USYLq6GgBEuZFP7whEKFEYLTkwqLCurhz22h2kYE8/image.png)\n \nSteemit and Golos are likely to co-exist as they serve very different markets. Drawing from history for an apt example, Russia has its own verison of Facebook known as VK, and as January 2017 had a dominant market position in Russia with 410 million accounts. This compares well with Facebook's userbase of 2 billion accounts, so Golos has achieved 20% of the userbase.\n\nKeeping that ratio in mind, let's compare that to their respective current market capitalizations. As I'm typing this, \n\nSTEEM: $315M\nGOLOS: $21M (about 7% of STEEM)\n\nThat's assuming STEEM is even able to become the largest of its kind in the world (the equivalent of a new age Facebook), while we can be relatively assured that GOLOS is far more likely to achieve market dominance in Russia given its focus on a singular community.  Furthemore, the  Russiancommunity is extremely strong and active, key to the success of any new blockchain application. Not many coins of such a low market capitalization have such a large community. Check out their Telegram group chat with over 1300 members (as of 25 Aug): \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYMGn5CiJ2uUFwLwdZ9Wxsc86g4hxf76rff6jpgLuwi1t/image.png)\n \nTheir GitHub account has 1650 commits and 22 contributors  (as of 25 Aug). That's a lot! Not bad for a coin trading at 7% of STEEM.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPeXYvvs3Ux5xXonz71C8kYuYbtzoBhXqdCV3HL7eGhzH/image.png)\n \nCompare that to Steemit which has 2068 commits and 30 contributors!  (as of 25 Aug)\n\nI strongly believe Golos will soon gain traction and should fundamentally be at least a double in price based on STEEM's valuation. Lastly, as an afterthought, Golos' circulating supply of coins is only half that of STEEM.\n\nDisclosure: I am long Golos.",
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      "body": "A lot has been said about Golos, but at the end of the day is it something that will challenge Steemit? Golos should not and will not cannibalize Steemit. In the economy we always see competitors co-existing in large markets. \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVH9USYLq6GgBEuZFP7whEKFEYLTkwqLCurhz22h2kYE8/image.png)\n \nSteemit and Golos are likely to co-exist as they serve very different markets. Drawing from history for an apt example, Russia has its own verison of Facebook known as VK, and as January 2017 had a dominant market position in Russia with 410 million accounts. This compares well with Facebook's userbase of 2 billion accounts, so Golos has achieved 20% of the userbase.\n\nKeeping that ratio in mind, let's compare that to their respective current market capitalizations. As I'm typing this, \n\nSTEEM: $315M\nGOLOS: $21M (about 7% of STEEM)\n\nThat's assuming STEEM is even able to become the largest of its kind in the world (the equivalent of a new age Facebook), while we can be relatively assured that GOLOS is far more likely to achieve market dominance in Russia given its focus on a singular community.  Furthemore, the  Russiancommunity is extremely strong and active, key to the success of any new blockchain application. Not many coins of such a low market capitalization have such a large community. Check out their Telegram group chat with over 1300 members (as of 25 Aug): \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYMGn5CiJ2uUFwLwdZ9Wxsc86g4hxf76rff6jpgLuwi1t/image.png)\n \nTheir GitHub account has 1650 commits and 22 contributors  (as of 25 Aug). That's a lot! Not bad for a coin trading at 7% of STEEM.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPeXYvvs3Ux5xXonz71C8kYuYbtzoBhXqdCV3HL7eGhzH/image.png)\n \nCompare that to Steemit which has 2068 commits and 30 contributors!  (as of 25 Aug)\n\nI strongly believe Golos will soon gain traction and should fundamentally be at least a double in price based on STEEM's valuation. Lastly, as an afterthought, Golos' circulating supply of coins is only half that of STEEM.\n\nDisclosure: I am long Golos.",
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      "body": "A lot has been said about Golos, but at the end of the day is it something that will challenge Steemit? Golos should not and will not cannibalize Steemit. In the economy we always see competitors co-existing in large markets. \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVH9USYLq6GgBEuZFP7whEKFEYLTkwqLCurhz22h2kYE8/image.png)\n \nSteemit and Golos are likely to co-exist as they serve very different markets. Drawing from history for an apt example, Russia has its own verison of Facebook known as VK, and as January 2017 had a dominant market position in Russia with 410 million accounts. This compares well with Facebook's userbase of 2 billion accounts, so Golos has achieved 20% of the userbase.\n\nKeeping that ratio in mind, let's compare that to their respective current market capitalizations. As I'm typing this, \n\nSTEEM: $315M\nGOLOS: $21M (about 7% of STEEM)\n\nThat's assuming STEEM is even able to become the largest of its kind in the world (the equivalent of a new age Facebook), while we can be relatively assured that GOLOS is far more likely to achieve market dominance in Russia given its focus on a singular community.  Furthemore, the  Russiancommunity is extremely strong and active, key to the success of any new blockchain application. Not many coins of such a low market capitalization have such a large community. Check out their Telegram group chat with over 1300 members (as of 25 Aug): \n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYMGn5CiJ2uUFwLwdZ9Wxsc86g4hxf76rff6jpgLuwi1t/image.png)\n \nTheir GitHub account has 1650 commits and 22 contributors  (as of 25 Aug). That's a lot! Not bad for a coin trading at 7% of STEEM.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmPeXYvvs3Ux5xXonz71C8kYuYbtzoBhXqdCV3HL7eGhzH/image.png)\n \nCompare that to Steemit which has 2068 commits and 30 contributors!  (as of 25 Aug)\n\nI strongly believe Golos will soon gain traction and should fundamentally be at least a double in price based on STEEM's valuation. Lastly, as an afterthought, Golos' circulating supply of coins is only half that of STEEM.\n\nDisclosure: I am long Golos.",
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