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      "body": "<h2>Summary</h2>\r\n<div>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>Sharpest drop in airline fares for four years - 2.7% M/M.</li>\r\n \t<li>Airline carrying some baggage amidst criticism.</li>\r\n \t<li>Do oil prices tell us what we want to know?</li>\r\n \t<li>P/E higher than competition and debt-laden.</li>\r\n \t<li>Technical areas where I intend to sell.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p>While most airline investors will be adamant it's nothing to worry about, those looking to cover longs, or initiate short positions will be searching for reasons.</p>\r\n<p>Recently we've seen the <a title=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3355275-sharpest-drop-airline-fares-four-years\" href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3355275-sharpest-drop-airline-fares-four-years\">sharpest drop in airline fares in four years</a>. Following two consecutive months of 0.6% gains in fares, there was a (relatively) sharp 2.7% drop in April.</p>\r\n<p>Even on the back of the US' annual spring break and the end of Easter festivities, fares have reduced sharply.</p>\r\n<em>Read on here...</em>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4176938-american-airlines-land\"><strong>Is American Airlines About To Land?</strong></a><br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/is-american-airlines-about-to-land-on-seekingalpha/</em><hr/></center>",
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      "body": "<h2>Summary</h2>\r\n<div>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>Parent of World's fourth-largest insurance broker Willis.</li>\r\n \t<li>WLTW became the first global insurance broker to be granted a license in China.</li>\r\n \t<li>Technically primed for new highs with opportunities for a value investment.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p>Willis Towers Watson (<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/WLTW\">WLTW</a>) has just been granted a licence to operate in China. With expansion into new territory afoot for the recently-merged company, WLTW is showing underlying strength compared to competitors.</p>\r\n<p>Since the merger of Willis and Towers Watson in 2016, the combined company has gone from strength to strength.</p>\r\n<p>It was announced on 15th May that Willis Towers Watson has become <a href=\"http://broker.insurance-business-review.com/news/willis-towers-watson-secures-insurance-business-license-in-china-160518-6154001\">the first global broker to be fully licensed to transact insurance business in China.</a></p>\r\n<p>To be the first foreign broker breaking ground in China is a huge competitive advantage.....</p>\r\n<em>Read on here:</em>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4175584-willis-towers-watson-insured-upside-chinese-license\"><strong>Willis Towers Watson Insured For More Upside With Chinese License</strong></a><br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/willis-towers-watson-insured-for-more-upside-on-seekingalpha/</em><hr/></center>",
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      "body": "Order flow is a concept in trading which many claim to understand. Few really do. The order flow of markets is what truly causes price to move.\r\n\r\nOrder flow can be applied to many aspects of financial markets. There is stop hunting, market microstructure, tape reading, technical analysis patterns and many more. One phenomenon drives these - order flow of markets.\r\n\r\nMany traders make decisions based on many different factors, very often labelling it as 'order flow trading' or 'order flow analysis'. More often than not they're right, all of these fall under the category of 'order flow trading', plus many other trading methods.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Order flow trading and the metagame</h1>\r\nWithout going into too much detail, as I will cover it in a future article, we must understand first the 'metagame'.\r\n\r\nThis can be described as the 'game within the game'. Going one further, this where player's/trader's make decisions not on a basic strategy based on the game's rules, but based on the other player's/trader's decisions.\r\n\r\nIf you know your competition is going to do the same move over and over, reacting to this and adjusting your strategy would be playing the metagame.\r\n\r\nThis is an important concept in order flow analysis, due to trading and financial markets being a competition between humans. (This is despite the influx of trading algorithms - humans still program them).\r\n\r\nThe importance of this snippet is that reading the order flow of markets often depends on your knowledge of what other traders are likely to do. The term 'weak hand at the table' springs to mind. This is a poker turn of phrase, which means that the weakest player at the table will be exploited.\r\n\r\nYou must learn how to spot and where to find the weak hands in the market in order to truly understand order flow. The landscape of market microstructure and the order flow of markets heavily relates to the concept of the metagame.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>What IS order flow?</h1>\r\nWithout diving too deeply into how financial markets function and how the price discovery process takes place, there are some concepts that need to be explained. This will be brief but important, so bear with it.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Limit orders</h2>\r\nKeeping it light, traders place orders to either buy or sell a particular instrument. These orders, below and above current price, are known as 'limit orders' or 'resting orders'. A buy limit is called a 'bid' and a sell limit is called an 'offer'.\r\n\r\nA bid can only be executed at the limit price or lower whereas an offer can only be executed at the limit price or higher. There is no guarantee a limit order will fill (some of us know this all too well). It will only fill if the market price reaches the price of the limit order.\r\n\r\nLimit orders ensure that a trader does not pay more than their ideal price for a given security. These orders are the foundation on which order flow and modern markets are built on.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Market orders</h2>\r\nConversely to limit orders, market orders can be executed at a price other than your ideal one. Simply put, a market order will execute a trade for your defined quantity, as soon as possible.\r\n\r\nThe price you get? The <em>market</em> price.\r\n\r\nThis means that your order could be executed at a range of prices. They demand immediacy in their execution. Results of this could be that the market orders reduced the existing liquidity of the market.\r\n\r\nThis is a very important element of overall order flow. Prices will only change once liquidity (read: limit orders) at a certain price has been consumed. Because of this, market orders are the primary reason for changes in price.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Stop orders</h2>\r\nA stop order is a type of order which <em>becomes </em>a market order once the price of a security reaches a pre-determined level. Stops are usually referred to as a stop-loss, buy stop or sell stop.\r\n\r\nAll three of these order types work by the same mechanism. However, a stop-loss is usually an order to exit a market, whereas buy/sell stop orders are to enter a market.\r\n\r\nStop orders offer liquidity to the market, as they are resting orders available for execution. They can also contribute to price change by consuming liquidity when they become market orders.\r\n\r\nThis enables traders to exploit them and the inefficiencies they create.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Liquidity distribution and order flow</h1>\r\nNow that order types are clear and out of the way, we need to understand liquidity distribution.\r\n\r\nIf big Trader A needs to buy 1000 contracts, yet there is only liquidity to execute 100, Trader A's order will not be filled without them moving the market price up. Trader A doesn't want to buy at higher prices, they want to buy at lower prices.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Stop-losses and the order flow provided</h2>\r\nMany traders use stop-loss orders. Stop-loss orders are very important in managing risk on a trade setup and enforcing discipline externally, as opposed to manually exiting a losing position.\r\n\r\nHowever, stop-losses can be a double-edged sword. Their impact on market liquidity is unique. Stop orders combine factors of market orders and limit orders (resting and placed at a price like a limit order, market execution the same as a market order). The structure can consume and also provide liquidity.\r\n\r\nThinking about the dynamics of liquidity, limit orders provide liquidity by allowing traders to execute market orders into them. Stop orders could be thought of performing the opposite. Stop orders provide liquidity by allowing traders to execute their <em>limit orders</em> at the stop price.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An example of the order flow trading landscape</h2>\r\nLet's say that John wants to be long on 100 contracts. John needs to initiate a position. Current price is $45/46. The depth of market is as follows:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/dom1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/dom1.png\" alt=\"a depth of market\" width=\"212\" height=\"399\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJohn then initiates his long position with a market order. His 100 contracts consume the liquidity from the 4 prices above. His average fill price on his long is $47.50 (25 contracts at each of 46, 47, 48, 49).  John is also aware that there are is also a 500 contract stop order at $50. This triggers and propels price to $53/54.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/dom2.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/dom2.png\" alt=\"depth of market\" width=\"206\" height=\"406\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSince John already knew that there was a 500 contract stop order at $50, he pre-emptively put a sell limit at $51 for 100 contracts, before even initiating his long position.\r\n\r\nWith his average entry price of $47.50 and exit price of $51, he has made 3.5 ticks on each contract. While this doesn't sound like much, remember that John was trading 100 contracts.\r\n\r\nJohn has successfully accomplished a 'stop hunt'.\r\n\r\nMany novice traders will blame moves like this on unscrupulous brokers widening spreads and the like. While there are some shady brokers out there, it is often simply other market speculators using a reliable method to generate profits.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>A chart example of order flow dynamics</h2>\r\nIn this example, we're in a short-term uptrend in Gold. Because of this, liquidity is thinner on the offers than the bids. Big traders want to be long without moving price too much and without slippage.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Gold-1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Gold-1.png\" alt=\"gold market map with order flow levels\" width=\"1677\" height=\"863\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nJohn has identified two regions for potential orders:\r\n<ol>\r\n \t<li>$1296, is where he thinks the price will go and is aware that there are stop orders resting above.</li>\r\n \t<li>$1290, is where he believes he can initiate longs without moving market price. He knows that there are sells stops there for him to buy into.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Gold-2.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Gold-2.png\" alt=\"order flow trading in gold\" width=\"1675\" height=\"858\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIn the above image, we can see that price has in fact moved below $1290. John has been filled at the price he wanted. John is also aware that any traders who initiated shorts into his buy limit at $1290 are now likely trapped. Their buy orders to cover their positions will provide fuel to any rally.\r\n\r\nJohn has a sell limit to cover his long position at $1296. He is almost certain that he will get filled, due to the liquidity (read: stop orders) beyond the multiple highs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/gold-3.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/gold-3.png\" alt=\"long trade idea in gold based off of order flow\" width=\"1680\" height=\"861\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe can see that John has exploited the resting stop order liquidity very well in Gold here. Note the aggressive move up to the liquidity beyond the highs at $1296. Perhaps somebody used the same trick John used earlier.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Order flow trading and stop cascades</h1>\r\nOne very interesting element of order flow trading a 'stop cascade'. If there are enough stops at one level, they could consume enough limit orders to reach the next level of stop-loss liquidity. This chain reaction is a stop cascade.\r\n\r\nWe can visualise this by using the Gold chart from before. In this case, stop orders have likely built up behind each of the three highs.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/gold4.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/gold4.png\" alt=\"order flow in the gold futures market\" width=\"1675\" height=\"863\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA large number of stop orders beyond the three highs caused the price to move considerably through the uppermost high. This took place within a split second in real time.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>The order flow trading mindset</h1>\r\nNow that we are thinking more in relation to where orders are placed and the order flow dynamics which they create, let's go back to the concept of the metagame. 'What are the other players thinking?'\r\n\r\nThink for a minute about how 'technical' traders think. If you've ever read babypips or the like, that's what I mean. These traders often assign huge moves to head and shoulders patterns or similar, mistaking the pattern as the cause of the effect. The only cause of market moves is order flow, the pattern is not the cause, no matter how much correlation may have been found in studies. (This is not to say that particular market patterns can't provide edge over time, but they are simply not the overall cause of market moves).\r\n\r\nThis doesn't mean that this trading methodology should be ignored completely. We can aim to exploit participants who trade in these ways, by assuming that their orders will be stacked in these areas.\r\n\r\nTechnical traders are often taught to buy 'strong' (read: more touches) support levels and sell 'strong' resistance levels. They are also often told to place stop order beyond the extremes of trading ranges, looking for a breakout towards the next support and resistance level.\r\n\r\nThe order flow which stems from both of these methods of trading support and resistance is very similar. A trader selling resistance will often have a stop-loss just beyond the high of resistance, a breakout trader will have a buy stop just beyond the high to initiate a position long.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>How much order flow will occur?</h2>\r\nJust because you know <em>where </em>the orders will be, you don't know <em>how many </em>or <em>how large</em> the orders are there. The bad news is that there is not an easy way to know. You don't know how many participants there are, how large their orders are or which strategy they trade.\r\n\r\nThis is especially true for forex where it's not as easy to see how much volume is being executed on a particular day.\r\n\r\nYou can make some approximations.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h3>Higher timeframes are generally more important to the order flow dynamics.</h3>\r\nIn general, traders consider timeframes higher than the one they trade on. Most traders are aware of key daily or weekly support and resistance. Conversely, most traders won't usually be aware of what's happening on timeframes much lower than the one they trade on.\r\n\r\nA trader who executes off of the hourly chart will usually have daily, weekly and <em>maybe </em>4-hour levels on their chart, they won't usually have 5 or 15-minute chart levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h3>Areas with more technical factors at play will likely hold more orders.</h3>\r\nIf there is an area on your chart with a support level, trendline, head and shoulders, moving average etc, there is likely a stack of orders around it. This will cause there to be much more order flow in the region.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h3>Patterns or technicals which take longer to occur will draw in more order flow.</h3>\r\nThink back to that 'strong' support level. Visualise a support level which has had 5 bounces off of it. That is the technical traders' heaven. You better believe that they want to buy near that support for <em>another </em>bounce.\r\n\r\nWhat happens when they do?\r\n\r\nThey add to the mass of stop-losses below the lows.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Using order flow trading</h1>\r\nNow that you are aware of where the market is likely to reach for and gravitate towards, there are ways to fit this order flow into your trading. Naturally, you won't be able to push the market around like John did, but you can use order flow to formulate decisions.\r\n\r\nWe saw a way of utilising the magnetism of liquidity in the gold example. The trader used their knowledge of order flow to take a long position ahead of the highs and cover their longs into the liquidity provided by a mass of buy stops. This method takes advantage of big traders like John who need to use these areas to execute orders without moving price to a disadvantageous position.\r\n\r\nAnother aspect of that same trade was John initiating his trade by using stop orders to the downside. He used those sell-stop orders to get long into an even bigger liquidity pool.\r\n\r\nIt's also worth noting that this happened once more in gold after the upside liquidity was absorbed.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/gold5.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/gold5.png\" alt=\"order flow in gold\" width=\"1675\" height=\"860\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Wrapping up</h1>\r\nI hope you found this article useful, it took a while to write! This is the baseline of how I think about markets and execute orders. Basing strategies around this framework should put you in good stead. It's always worth thinking about what is really going on underneath the chart and what the causal relationship is.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;<br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/what-is-order-flow-trading-and-how-to-profit/</em><hr/></center>",
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      "body": "Most of us traders know what <a href=\"http://forexfactory.com\" target=\"_blank\">Forex Factory</a> <em>is</em>, but do we know <em>how </em>to use it to improve?\r\n\r\nForex Factory is a goldmine of information and resources. It's the largest trading forum out there. However, there is a lot of subpar information to wade through. I'm going to help you use it to your benefit. This article will give you multiple ideas on how to use Forex Factory and ultimately improve your trading.\r\n\r\n\r\nIn this article you will learn about:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li><strong>The forex factory economic calendar</strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>How to set up the forex factory calendar</li>\r\n \t<li>How to use the forex factory calendar</li>\r\n \t<li>What economic news events mean</li>\r\n \t<li>Using sentiment in your trading</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Using forex factory for live charts</strong></li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Finding trading strategies on forex factory</strong></li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Finding indicators on forex factory</strong></li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Using forex factory as a trading journal</strong></li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Networking on forex factory</strong></li>\r\n \t<li><strong>Tracking your trades with forex factory trade explorer</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Using the Forex Factory calendar</h1>\r\nFirst and foremost, if you don't have a provider for your economic news, forex factory is arguably the best. It's customisable and user-friendly, perfect for tailoring it to your own trading. Even if you don't 'trade the news', I believe you need to be aware when the key events are taking place. Nobody wants to be caught out by key events just because they couldn't be bothered to read a calendar for 1 minute.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Find the Forex Factory calendar</h2>\r\nFirstly, you want to load up the <a href=\"https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php\" target=\"_blank\">forex factory calendar</a>. Which will look something like this before you customise it:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff.png\" alt=\"the forex factory calendar which will improve your trading\" width=\"1288\" height=\"942\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Get the right trading time zone</h2>\r\nDepending on where you live or where you base your trading time zone off of, you need to change the forex factory calendar. You need to click the clock in the upper right hand side and configure the settings to what you want.\r\n\r\nIt is paramount that you do this, otherwise the events will be labelled incorrectly on the forex factory calendar. Among the time settings, you must pick if you would like 24h clock setting and also whether or not your country has Daylight Savings. (I'm in the UK and we do). You also have the option to automatically match the timezone to your PC.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff2.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff2.png\" alt=\"How to change timezone on the forex factory calendar\" width=\"1268\" height=\"681\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff3.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff3.png\" alt=\"Change the timezone on forex factory calendar\" width=\"1094\" height=\"329\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhen you have configured the calendar to how you want it, click 'Save Settings' and go back to the main forex factory calendar screen. The time in the upper right should now be correct.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>How much news do you want to see?</h2>\r\nThis setting allows to you select how many days of news you would like to view on the main page.\r\n\r\nIf you only want to see today's news appear or the whole week, change the setting in this left had side bar. Whichever amount of days you choose will depend highly on which timeframe you trade. Consider this as well as how long you usually hold trades for.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff4.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff4.png\" alt=\"choosing scope of days economic news on forex factory calendar\" width=\"1266\" height=\"384\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>What news do you want to see?</h2>\r\nA very important question. Depending on what instruments you trade, this customisation is essential. It can reduce clutter and improve the usability of the forex factory calendar.\r\n\r\nIn order to get to the customisation page, you must click 'Filter' in the upper right hand corner of the calendar.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff5-1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff5-1.png\" alt=\"how to filter the forex factory calendar\" width=\"1266\" height=\"397\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nClicking filter will then cause the page to tab down, where you can select the countries, event types and expected impacts that you want.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff6.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff6.png\" alt=\"forex factory calendar filters\" width=\"1089\" height=\"330\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis is completely down to you. If you have noticed that certain events don't have any effect, you may want to get rid of them. I only have orange and red news on my own calendar, as I've found that other news has little effect.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>What do the news events mean?</h2>\r\nLuckily you can find out on the forex factory calendar. By clicking on the folder icon next to a certain event, you can read more about what it is and what the previous results were.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff7.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff7.png\" alt=\"finding out what the economic events mean on the forex factory economic calendar\" width=\"1080\" height=\"585\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff8.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff8.png\" alt=\"ECB minimum bid rate tab on forex factory calendar\" width=\"1090\" height=\"596\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis tab shows you the previous results, how the news is measured, why you should care about it etc. It even links to news articles on the particular subject. These details aren't essential but are certainly an advantage of using the forex factory calendar.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Find the sentiment on Forex Factory</h2>\r\nIf you're a trader who likes to know the overall sentiment of what other traders are thinking, you can use the sentiment section of forex factory. I've put this under the economic calendar section as I feel it relates to it. Just click the 'Trades' tab at the top of the page. Then scroll down slightly to find the sentiment section of forex factory.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff9.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/ff9.png\" alt=\"see trader sentiment on forex factory\" width=\"1106\" height=\"521\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nSome traders like to watch and be aware of what traders in the retail space are doing. Most people know that the majority of retail traders are wrong for the majority of the time. They buy tops, sell bottoms and make bad decisions, by and large.\r\n\r\nThis enables sentiment based traders to capitalise. People use the positioning and sentiment gauge to adapt a contrarian approach.\r\n\r\nBeing a contrarian means going against the 'herd' - long when they're short and vice-versa.\r\n\r\nLooking at GBP/JPY on the screenshot above, you will notice that we have 39% of traders long, with 61% short. This is edging towards and extreme balance. Knowing that these traders are likely to be wrong, we would probably want to assume a long position. (Against the 61% of people who are short).\r\n\r\nIf you have an entry 'setup' or pattern that you can easily recognise, you could use sentiment as a way to <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/confluence-journal-trades/\">add confluence to your trading</a>. It is essential that you still have a valid reason for getting into a trade, not just entering based on the forex factory sentiment levels.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Live charts on Forex Factory</h1>\r\nIf it so happens that you don't have forex charts on your phone in 2018, you can use forex factory for charts instead!\r\n\r\nYou don't want to be using your phone every 15 minutes to check trading positions - use the forex factory charts. You can easily check where the market is and have it on a background tab if needs be.\r\n\r\nSimply click the 'Market' tab at the top of the page to access multiple free forex charts.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ff10.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ff10.png\" alt=\"a forex factory chart showing EURUSD\" width=\"1098\" height=\"662\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nYou don't need to login or have an account, yet you have simple live forex charts. It also shows you when trading news events are (red tabs at the bottom of the chart).\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Use forex factory to find good trading strategies</h1>\r\nI know what you're thinking. When people talk about trading forums I often hear 'the blind leading the blind' and 'retail traders lose consistently'. That can be true to an extent.\r\n\r\nHowever, don't ignore the huge amount of ideas that are being thrown around on a daily basis. Not all of those ideas are going to be bad.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Finding trading strategies on forex factory</h2>\r\nIn the <a href=\"https://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php\" target=\"_blank\">forex factory forums</a>, there are numerous discussions on <a href=\"https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=11\" target=\"_blank\">trading strategy</a>, <a href=\"https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=71\" target=\"_blank\">trading systems</a> and <a href=\"https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=49\" target=\"_blank\">trading journals</a>. Some of these posts contain ready-made trading strategies. Some people like to share when they've found something good. They go to great lengths to explain their trading strategy from the ground up and answer any questions on it. This can be a good framework for building trading strategies.\r\n\r\nSome of the threads have been in existence for <em>years,</em> with numerous people trading some of the strategies. If you can find <em>any </em>profitable strategies, it is probably worth your while.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Use forex factory to find <em><strong>bad</strong></em><strong> trading strategies</strong></h1>\r\nThis may seem counter-intuitive. However, if 80% or 90% of traders lose consistently, why not go against what they do?\r\n\r\nYou could scour forex factory forums and find a really bad trading strategy. Just do the opposite. A bad enough trading strategy flipped on its head will be a good trading strategy, or so the logic goes.\r\n\r\nBe wary though, traders posting on forums will often try to deceive readers by only posting a portion of their results and charts. A consistent trader who always loses will likely not post in the first place. Be sure to have diligence, this goes for following winning traders as well.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Using forex factory to find indicators</h1>\r\nBeing one of the best trading resources, forex factory has a wealth of homemade indicators for trading platforms. However, these are mostly mt4 indicators. You can find almost any trading indicator you need on there.\r\n\r\nI recently found an indicator and modified it to my own liking, after spending quite some time wondering how to do it. You can find that article here - <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/change-chart-timeframes-mt4/\" target=\"_blank\">How to change all chart timeframes on mt4.</a>\r\n\r\nIf looking for forex trading indicators a simple google search will often lead you to forex factory. Failing that you can go to the <a href=\"https://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=69\" target=\"_blank\">platform tech forex factory forum</a>.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Using forex factory as a trading journal</h1>\r\nHaving a trading journal is a trading essential in my book. But trading journals don't always have to be just numbers.\r\n\r\nWhile I think you need to keep track of the quantitative elements of your trading strategy, some aspects can't be put into digits. Keeping a trading journal is an aspect of trading that alludes many beginners. For whatever reasons, a lot decide against keeping thorough records.\r\n\r\nSo why not start now?\r\n<h2>Why start a journal on forex factory?</h2>\r\n<h3>Learning from other traders</h3>\r\nIf you put your personal journal on a forum, people are probably going to comment. This could be both a help and a hindrance. Whether the comments are good or bad, they will often help to provoke thought about your own trading.\r\n\r\nHaving your strategy questioned by others can very much help you to internalise your strategy and ask yourself questions about it.\r\n\r\nSometimes you may have a specific problem which you haven't even noticed. Often, outside eyes can see it more clearly than you yourself. It's a journal with feedback from traders and other forex factory users!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h3>Keep yourself accountable</h3>\r\nIf you've started a journal online and you have people interacting with it, you're more accountable.\r\n\r\nIt's easy to skip a day of writing your journal because 'you didn't feel like it'. With people watching, it's not so easy to shirk your duty. Your public trading journal has become a commitment to yourself and to the people reading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Finding other traders and networking on forex factory</h1>\r\nTrading can often be a lonely endeavour. Having a network of people to talk to and share ideas can be a good idea.\r\n\r\nFinding traders who trade similarly to you (or the same) can be a big help. Not <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/avoid-missing-trades/\" target=\"_blank\">missing trade setups</a> and being alerted to when there is something to watch is never a bad thing. You can also help to keep each other to account and talk over any problems you may have. Helping others is also a good way to inadvertently help yourself. Talking about trading can lead you to think more about what you're doing.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Finding trading firms on forex factory</h2>\r\nSometimes, writing about trading and putting yourself out there can lead to positive interest. I've heard numerous stories of people being offered interviews and jobs just through exposure online. Using forex factory in a positive way may help you experience the same.\r\n\r\nEspecially if you....\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Track your trades on forex factory</h2>\r\nForex factory gives you the option of tracking your trades in real time. It then displays your live trades to other users.\r\n\r\nThis is a badge of honour for many forex factory users and can help you garner positive attention.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ff11.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ff11.png\" alt=\"forex factory live trading tab\" width=\"1087\" height=\"345\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTaking a random account from forex factory forums, you can see that this user has tracked live trades. (These trades can be real or demo). This is another way that forex factory can increase your accountability.\r\n\r\nTo create a trade explorer on your profile, simply click your username in the top right hand side, scroll down, then click 'Create Trade Explorer'.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ff12.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ff12.png\" alt=\"forex factory trade explorer\" width=\"1099\" height=\"291\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis will then appear on your profile, giving you the chance to showcase your results.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Wrapping up</h1>\r\nNext time you have a a spare moment in your trading day, need an economic calendar or are trying to craft strategies, you can just go to forex factory instead.\r\n\r\nIt's a fantastic resource with a wealth of information, as long as you know how to use it correctly - hopefully this article has given you some ideas.\r\n\r\nDon't forget to subscribe if you haven't already!\r\n\r\n&nbsp;<br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/how-to-use-forex-factory/</em><hr/></center>",
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      "author": "victordaniels",
      "body": "Check out my post on forex pairs EuR/USD.\nSteem your way to power greatness and glory!  \nSteemit F1 Team ![168517833.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQu3JfdZph8AECku3GmvbDMhnjKNHFpE64tcaYNebVhGq/168517833.jpg)\n\nWe win together !",
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      "body": "I think it will rtrace itself before soaring high .",
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      "body": "Crude Oil is the main focus going into 3rd May. There is some interesting structure at play in this market, as outlined on the chart.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Oil-Chart-of-the-Day-3rd-May.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Oil-Chart-of-the-Day-3rd-May.png\" alt=\"a chart showing crude oil\" width=\"1678\" height=\"892\" /><br></a><br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/crude-oil-chart-of-the-day-3rd-may-2018/</em><hr/></center>",
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      "body": "One of the most interesting charts out there at the minute - Dax is below a big area on the hourly chart. A good play would be to look for longs at the 12480 area in preparation for a probe of 12650 liquidity.\r\n\r\nIf the lower level isn't tagged before we take the highs, it will be worth looking for longs off of 12650 as we explore to new areas of value. I will only be looking for longs there if we <em>accept above</em> - meaning we spend time above there and don't immediately fall back into the range.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Dax-chart-of-the-day-1st-May.png\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Dax-chart-of-the-day-1st-May.png\" alt=\"A chart showing the Dax and a trading setup on it\" width=\"1677\" height=\"898\" /><br></a><br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/dax-chart-of-the-day-2nd-may-2018/</em><hr/></center>",
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      "body": "<div>Missing trades can be incredibly detrimental to your bottom line. It's costing you big, we need to fix it. The amount of times we've said 'I knew I should've taken that' or 'why didn't I see that setup, I should be in it'. This is a very real issue for a lot of traders.</div>\r\n<div></div>\r\nMissing trades manifests in numerous ways. Multiple causes lead to missed trades. Once past this hurdle, we can begin to increase profits and the efficacy of our trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Why are you missing trades?</h1>\r\nThe first step to solving our problems is to recognise the reasons behind them. Our first port of call is to assess the reasons behind missing trades.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>No clear trading strategy or rules</h2>\r\nGetting this out of the way first and foremost - how can you judge something as a missed trade, if you don't have concrete rules in place? Your strategy must be solidified and set in stone before you start judging yourself for missing trades. If you don't have rules in place or don't know what your trade setup looks like, you're lying to yourself and possibly making the issue worse. Being harsh to yourself for a missed trade, even though it doesn't fit in with your rules anyway, is fruitless and damaging.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>No confidence in your trading strategy</h2>\r\nThis is another excuse which some people have for missing trades. This goes back to asking yourself why you weren't confident. If you have stats and a clear plan then you can gain confidence over time. Nonetheless this can be a very real reason for missing trades. You simply need to ask yourself why your confidence was low before pulling the trigger. Finding the root cause will be valuable.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Fear</h2>\r\nSimilar to lacking confidence, fear before taking a trade can cause trades to be missed altogether. Fear is arguably a stronger emotion than lacking confidence and one which needs to be stopped. Fear before executing can incredibly detrimental to your edge.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/326642/pexels-photo-326642.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/326642/pexels-photo-326642.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" alt=\"Full Frame Shot of Text on Wood\" width=\"940\" height=\"627\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Putting too much pressure on this single trade</h2>\r\nYou've had a couple of losers and recency bias is starting to creep in - 'is my edge disappearing?' you ask yourself. Of course it isn't. Don't let your two losing trades yesterday effect your decision making process. This can cause you to be in a mindset where you <em>need</em> a winner and execute poorly, second guessing yourself at every turn. This will ultimately lead you down a bad path.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>'I just didn't see it'</h2>\r\nHow many of us have said that before? Just after the trade goes to the would-be target you see it as clear as day. This is why you need to have a rigorous process. Once you have a rigorous process and routine in place, 'not seeing' trades in real time<em> should </em>become a thing of the past. Just browsing charts when you feel like it can result in missed opportunities.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/415105/pexels-photo-415105.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/415105/pexels-photo-415105.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" alt=\"blur, book, book pages\" width=\"940\" height=\"597\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Busy doing something else</h2>\r\nLife gets in the way at times. This is a reason for missing trades which is difficult to avoid. If you suddenly need to leave your desk for reasons beyond your control, there isn't much you can do about it.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Impact of missing trades</h1>\r\nNow that we know some of the reasons why trades are missed, let's have a look at how this can impact you and your trading.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>You didn't journal the trade</h2>\r\nA trade you haven't taken (for whichever reason) is probably not going to be in your journal or trading statistics. It probably should be. If a trade setup has occurred which fits your edge, it has to be written down with the others. This is where many people can fall over. Your sample is lacking key data points due to human error and it needs to be eradicated.\r\n\r\nThis is something that <a href=\"http://edgewonk.com\">Edgewonk</a> does very well, they give you the ability to journal trades that you've missed. Be very careful with this however. Make sure to journal trades you have missed which were losers too. If you only journal missed winners then you are lying to yourself and tainting your dataset. 'I would be rich if I took all of these winners I missed'. Get that out of your head and track <em>all</em> trades which you haven't taken.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/missed-trades-edgewonk.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/missed-trades-edgewonk.png\" alt width=\"1048\" height=\"230\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n<h2>Live results differ from backtesting</h2>\r\nAs a result of not journalling the trades, your live results are underperforming compared to what you expected to happen. By missing trades which conform to your trading edge your live results are a complete mismatch. Your expectation in testing was 0.4 but trading live has only yielded 0.2. The ramifications of this could be a lack of confidence in your strategy and inability to execute effectively moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Your trading psychology has been damaged</h2>\r\nHaving missed trades, you're now kicking yourself. 'I've gotta make up for that now'. You take a subpar trade in order to increase your bottom line. It's a loser. This is the start of a slippery slope of revenge trading and overall poor execution. Let it go, make sure it doesn't happen again, don't try to 'trade your way out of' mistakes, just rectify them moving forward.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>How to minimise missing trades</h1>\r\nNow that we have assessed some of the reasons for missing trades and what their impact can be, let's have a look at some of the ways we can avoid it altogether.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Journalling trades for better understanding of your edge</h2>\r\nWe have touched on this already but if it's a lack of pulling the trigger, a journal will be your best friend. Having numerous data points of the exact same setup and concrete proof of edge will do wonders for your execution. Having a digest of all of the times the trade setup has occurred will give you quantitative and qualitative back-up when making trading decisions. Keeping a '<a href=\"http://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-business/the-greatest-trading-book-ever/\">playbook</a>' of the trade setups can help immensely so that you know <em>exactly </em>what you want to see.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/606539/pexels-photo-606539.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/606539/pexels-photo-606539.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" alt=\"blank, composition, desk\" width=\"940\" height=\"627\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Set trade alerts</h2>\r\nThis one is quite self explanatory. Once you have mapped out markets and are aware of the areas where you want to execute, set a price alert. This way you'll be notified when price is where you want it to be, and have no excuse for missing it. As this doesn't come as default on MT4, I have attached an indicator for price alerts:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/PriceAlert.zip\">PriceAlert</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Have a solidified and rigorous trading plan</h2>\r\nThis does not just mean that you know what your trade setup looks like. This is should include absolutely everything about your trading. This is a great <a href=\"http://www.trade2win.com/articles/886-trading-plan-template\">free trading journal template</a> to get you started. Your whole routine must be in this plan, and that includes your process for scanning markets and finding trades. Get that routine right and you should find that less trade setups are slipping through your fingers.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/908298/pexels-photo-908298.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/908298/pexels-photo-908298.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" alt=\"Laptop,, Calendar and Books\" width=\"940\" height=\"641\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Only take your best setups</h2>\r\nIf your reason behind missing trades is in the fear or confidence category, something needs to be done. Why are you fearful or lacking confidence. If its because you are <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/trading-with-high-reward-to-risk/\">trading with high reward-to-risk</a> and your win rate is too low, fix it. Perhaps only take your setup with the highest win rate. This was you can avoid longer and steeper drawdowns and gain confidence more easily,\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Realise that it's ok to have losing trades</h2>\r\nThis is a corollary to the last point. If you have fear of losing and lack confidence due to this, you need to remind yourself that it's fine to have losing trades. It's unavoidable for all traders. What isn't fine is making poor decisions based on your emotions.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>Get comfortable being uncomfortable</h2>\r\nSomething that <a href=\"https://twitter.com/NicTrades\">Nicola Duke</a> touched on in <a href=\"https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-063-nicola-duke/\">her episode of Chat With Traders</a>, it's natural to feel uncomfortable when there is money on the line. However, you need to be ok with this and get comfortable being uncomfortable. This is a very important aspect of trading. The feeling of discomfort may never go away but you must come to terms with it.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/302810/pexels-photo-302810.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://images.pexels.com/photos/302810/pexels-photo-302810.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=650&amp;w=940\" alt=\"adult, beverage, breakfast\" width=\"940\" height=\"644\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h1>Wrapping up</h1>\r\nSee if you can apply some of these tips and increase profits in your trading. Make it a goal to not say 'I wish I took that trade' or 'why did I miss that trade'. I hope you found this article helpful, subscribe for more new and exclusive content!<br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/avoid-missing-trades/</em><hr/></center>",
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      "body": "&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-Anatomy-of-a-breakout.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/EURUSD-Anatomy-of-a-breakout.png\" alt width=\"1678\" height=\"893\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nAnatomy of a breakout.\r\n\r\nFirstly, note that 1 &amp; 2 and 4 &amp; 5 are pretty much the same structure, with 4 &amp; 5 being within\r\nthe larger pattern of 1 &amp; 2.\r\n\r\nAt (1), we put in multiple highs (also an inside day high). This becomes an area which is likely\r\nto have stops build up beyond it. This becomes somewhat of magnetic price point.\r\n\r\nAt (2), we can see a support level which was previously resistance on the left. This is then broken\r\nat (3). However, price cannot hold below (3) and is making new highs again.\r\n\r\n(4) is the same multiple high structure as (1).\r\n\r\n(5) sees a repeat of (2) - move below support but cannot hold below it, we are immediately bid.\r\n\r\n(6) seals the fate of any bear. At this point we know - with great probability - that we are going\r\nto find out what's above (1).<br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/eurusd-chart-of-the-day-19th-april/</em><hr/></center>",
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      "body": "For sure, need to keep the powder dry until the very best opportunities are there! I'm also a technical trader though was writing from the perspective of a more fundamental base.\n\nThanks for reading and commenting!",
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      "body": "Thank you for reading and commenting! \n\nI firmly believe that you can analyse all markets. However, you're right in that crypto is easier to manipulate (due to the distribution of wealth in the crypto space). Another thing worth noting is that crypto has only jsut become a two-way market (with most  individuals still net-long), which may distort the market mechanism somewhat.",
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      "body": "You often hear traders quarreling about trend trading vs mean reversion trading. I'm going to help settle the dispute. The two trading styles are often pitted against each other, with no consideration of finer details. Read on for those finer details.\r\n\r\n<h1>What are 'trending' and 'mean reverting' markets?</h1>\r\nIn order to understand what strategies can be used in each, let us have a detailed look into the key differences in markets.\r\n<h2>Trending markets</h2>\r\n<h3>What is a trend?</h3>\r\nMany people broadly consider a <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/why-the-trend-is-your-friend-isnt-always-true-trend-trading-guestpost-on-davidbellefx-com/\" target=\"_blank\">trending market</a> to be one with which the market structure has higher highs and higher lows (and vice versa). This can also be defined by the use of trend lines, though these may not be helpful depending on which <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/are-candlestick-charts-useless/\" target=\"_blank\">candlestick chart</a> you use.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/1.png\" alt=\"Image showing an uptrend in price\" width=\"1366\" height=\"841\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\nA statistic which is often thrown around - 'markets trend around 30% of the time'. As far as we are concerned, this statistic has no basis in reality. I have never seen proof of the claim and believe it to be extremely difficult to measure. It is a decent enough guideline, but must be taken with a pinch of salt.\r\n<h3><strong>What are the characteristics of a trend trading strategy?</strong></h3>\r\nLonger hold time - trend trading usually requires the trade to play out over a relatively longer time. This is due to the nature of a trend, building value in a single direction.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/trading-with-high-reward-to-risk/\" target=\"_blank\">Higher reward-risk ratio</a> - often the trader will make multiples of gain for every unit of risk taken. An old adage is to 'ride the trend'. If you believe a market is uni-directional, you should be trying to capture the bulk of the move and <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/let-your-winners-run-a-fallacy/\">let your winners run</a>.\r\n\r\nLower winrate - by virtue of having a larger average payoff on your trades, your winrate will decrease. The inverse relationship between reward-risk and winrate means that trend followers will often have less than 40% wins. Some trend followers have an even lower winrate, yet still turn a profit.\r\n<h2>Mean-reverting markets:</h2>\r\n<h3>What is a range?</h3>\r\nI would define a range as being an area of price consolidation, with relatively clear upper and lower boundaries. Visually, a range will look much like a 'box', a rectangle will be able to be drawn around it.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2.png\" alt=\"a price chart showing a rangebound market\" width=\"1366\" height=\"838\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\nIf we're going off of the conventional wisdom, markets range for 70% of the time. This may mean that there is more opportunity in the mean reversion trading space.\r\n<h3>What are the characteristics of a mean reversion trading strategy?</h3>\r\nShorter hold time - due to the 'snap back' nature of mean reversion trades. Mean reversion traders often like to take advantage of short-term corrections back towards the mean.\r\n\r\nLower reward-risk ratio - prices stepping out of line from their mean usually won't offer a huge number of ticks to be captured. This is in contrast to trend trading.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/trading-with-high-reward-to-risk/\" target=\"_blank\">Higher winrate</a> - due to the inverse relationship with reward-risk. This means that mean reversion traders will often have much higher winrates than trend traders, upwards of 60% for the most part.\r\n<h1>How to trade trending and mean-reverting markets</h1>\r\n<h2>Trend trading strategy</h2>\r\nA commonly used trend trading strategy is the breakout. A simplified example of this would be watching a range for breakouts and getting on board when the new trend starts. This strategy was used by Nicolas Darvas, which he details in his book '<a href=\"https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Made-000-Stock-Market-ebook/dp/B017DUJVAY/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1522939377&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=how+i+made+2%2C000%2C000+in+the+stock+market\" target=\"_blank\">How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market'</a>. Ignoring the very 'instagram trader' title, there are some very useful lessons on trend following.\r\n\r\nDarvas would often enter on a stop order as we break the current trading range. As price breaks the top of the 'box', as Darvas called them, the trend follower can enter the market and assume a long position. This is just one way to get on board these market moves.\r\n\r\nA more cautious trend follower could get on board at the close of the breakout candle. This could protect against a 'false breakout' or 'false start' to the trend.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/3.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/3.png\" alt=\"Image showing a Nicolas Darvas trend following trade\" width=\"1365\" height=\"839\" /><br></a>\r\n<h3>Ideal market type for trend trading</h3>\r\nA tricky question. It depends entirely on where and when you want to get into the trade. As discussed previously, some trend traders opt to get in <em>as the trend is starting. </em>On the other hand, many traders will wait for a more mature trend and enter the market later.\r\n\r\nMost trend traders will want to see a clear directional move for as long as possible. This is the nature of trend trading - direction. This is often defined by moving averages having a slope to them, <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/why-the-trend-is-your-friend-isnt-always-true-trend-trading-guestpost-on-davidbellefx-com/\" target=\"_blank\">trendlines</a> facing a particular direction, higher highs and lows, or a simple visual check.\r\n\r\nThe clear direction enables many trend trades to put their stop-losses beneath swing lows, or at an ATR measurement below the high water mark or a trendline.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/4-1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/4-1.png\" alt=\"Price chart showing an example of using ATR values as a trailing stop loss\" width=\"1367\" height=\"839\" /><br></a>\r\n<h3>Advantages of trend trading</h3>\r\nFirstly, attempting to enter a trend at the start of the move means that you're not going to miss any of the trend. You are getting in as the trend starts, especially if you use the trend trading strategy I outlined. This is useful as it guarantees you'll be involved in at least the first portion of a trend move.\r\n\r\nThe other advantage to getting in at the start is exactly that: you're in at the very start. Trends can last for <em>years</em> and you bought at the bottom, that is great! This should enable you to get the majority of the trend.\r\n\r\nTrend traders often boast that their entries don't need to be pinpoint precise. They are quite right in this respect. Trend trading doesn't always require the perfect entry, you know where the trend is headed after all. Your entry has less importance than how you manage the trade to capture the most upside.\r\n\r\nYou can also afford to be less precise because your winners will be multiple times bigger than your losers. The art of trend trading makes this a requirement. If your average winner is four times that of your average losers, trend trading gives you 4 chances to be wrong for every winner. Of course this is just to break even, but the point holds true.\r\n<h3>Disadvantages of trend trading</h3>\r\nIf using the simple strategy outlined by Darvas and myself in this article, you may find yourself at the mercy of 'false breaks'. This is when you enter on a breakout, but price quickly dips back into the consolidation. Trend traders want to avoid this. It's akin to a false start in a race, wasted energy and wasted capital. However, some traders have creative ways to counter false breaks.\r\n\r\nAlthough not an essential when trading with the trend, some trend traders can be sloppy with their entries into the market. Sometimes trend entries can be improved upon heavily. Instead of entering on the breakout, why not wait for a pullback? Why not try to enter before the breakout even occurs? These can be things to think about if a trend trader is seeing a lot of drawdown on their entry.\r\n\r\nMy main qualm with trend trading is the low winrate. <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/trading-with-high-reward-to-risk/\" target=\"_blank\">Trading with high reward-to-risk</a> can be useful, but the low winrate that comes with it can wreak havoc on an equity curve. Lower winrates come with higher drawdown, this is mathematical fact. What this drawdown can do is make variance incredibly high. Missing a handful of trades can make or break a trend trading system. In addition to this, the psychological hurdle of seeing 10 losers in a row is incredibly large. This is without mentioning the difficulty in forward-projecting results. With a higher winrate trading strategy, you have a much better idea of what to expect in the future.\r\n<h2>Mean reversion trading strategy</h2>\r\nRange trading strategy can be slightly more difficult to design than trend trading. Mean reversion trading strategies usually involve selling into up moves and buying into down moves. This is in order to take advantage of an overreaction and assumes that price will return to it's longer term average.\r\n\r\nOne such strategy is the <a href=\"http://trader-dante.com/sfp.html\" target=\"_blank\">SFP</a>. Without going into too much detail, this strategy requires a 'peek' above or below swing points. You then assume a position for reversion to the mean.\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/5-1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/5-1.png\" alt=\"A price chart showing a swing failure pattern of a key support low\" width=\"1369\" height=\"837\" /><br></a>\r\n<h3>Ideal market type</h3>\r\nMean reversion trades often require price consolidation, at least so that you can determine the mean price effectively. Rangebound markets are the most suited, due to there being a clear range. We then expect price to reject the boundaries of the the range and reverse towards the centre.\r\n\r\nSince there is a broad array of mean reversion trading strategies, the market types suitable can be broad.\r\n<h3>Advantages of mean reversion trading</h3>\r\nGoing off of the 'markets range 70% of the time' rule, we would potentially get more opportunities with a mean reversion trading strategy. The amount of time spent in a ranging state will mean more reversion to the mean, an advantage over trend trading.\r\n\r\nAll things considered, mean reversion trades also have a lower average hold time than their trend trading alternatives. The reduced time in market could act as a safeguard against external shocks. Mean reversion strategies have a lower average hold time than trend trading due to the in-and-out nature of snaps back to the mean. These trades aim to take a small chunk of the correction back to average value.\r\n\r\nMean reversion trading strategies usually benefit from shorter drawdown periods. <a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/trading-with-high-reward-to-risk/\" target=\"_blank\">Higher winrates</a> are arguably the main benefit of mean reversion trading. These give you the ability to have shorter drawdown periods and go through longer winning streaks. Reducing drawdown gives a huge advantage due to your psychology not being affected, you can predict future returns better and missed trades aren't as damaging to your bottom line.\r\n<h3>Disadvantages of mean reversion trading</h3>\r\nMissed trades can be a huge factor in determining the success of mean reversion trading strategy. The more precise nature of entering market for a return to the mean can cause you to miss fills. If entering on limit orders, price will not always stretch far enough for you to get on board.\r\n\r\nAnother disadvantage to mean reversion trading is actually determining the mean. Is it a visual representation? A moving average? Which period moving average? These factors must be taken into consideration in order to construct a trading strategy effectively.\r\n\r\nFinally, not all traders are comfortable with a small pay-off ratio on their trades. Most mean reversion trading strategies have near equal average winners and average losers. Often you will find that your average winning trade is smaller than your average losing trade! Due to conventional thoughts such as '<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/trading-with-high-reward-to-risk/\" target=\"_blank\">always trade with a 2:1 reward-risk ratio</a>', traders often reject strategies with a lower average payoff. This is despite the inverse relationship between average R and winrate which almost guarantees that your win percentage will increase.\r\n<h2>A combination of trend trading and mean reversion trading?</h2>\r\nWhile the two styles are relatively distinct in their own right, you may be able to combine the two for even great effect. Let's take a look at a simple example strategy:\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>Use a 200MA as a trend filter (above the moving average is an uptrend)</li>\r\n \t<li>Enter long (on next day open) when the 2-day Cumulative RSI value is less than 33</li>\r\n \t<li>Exit (on next day open) when 2-day RSI is above 20</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nUsing this very simple strategy yields very impressive results in the S&amp;P500. You could think of this strategy as both trend trading and mean reversion trading. We must be above a long-term average, signalling an uptrend. However, we buy the market on aggressive downwards moves within the trend. We do this to capitalise on mean reversion within a trend. Here is the equity curve for this particular strategy:\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/cumrsi.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img src=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/cumrsi.png\" alt=\"An equity curve showing a mean reversion and trend trading strategy combined\" width=\"1005\" height=\"516\" /><br></a>\r\n\r\nThis strategy has an approx 80% win rate, akin to many mean reversion strategies. However, it also has average winners just over <em>half </em>the size of it's average loser. This is simply an example of how both trends and mean reversion can be used in tandem to create trading strategies.\r\n<h1>Wrapping up</h1>\r\nPersonally, I prefer to mix the two trading styles. However, I lean towards mean reversion more than trend trading. Finding a way to combine both is a genuine solution, if you find yourself on a particular side of the argument. Avoiding dogmatic thought such as 't<a href=\"https://www.tradingprobability.com/why-the-trend-is-your-friend-isnt-always-true-trend-trading-guestpost-on-davidbellefx-com/\" target=\"_blank\">he trend is your friend</a>' and staying flexible will never hinder you when crafting strategies.\r\n\r\n<em>Please don't forget to subscribe below if you haven't already. You will receive notifications for the latest posts and more email exclusives. </em><br /><center><hr/><em>Posted from my blog with <a href='https://wordpress.org/plugins/steempress/'>SteemPress</a> : https://www.tradingprobability.com/trend-trading-vs-mean-reversion-trading/</em><hr/></center>",
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