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      "body": "Congratulations @eliskies! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@eliskies/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@eliskies) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](http://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=eliskies)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "ReasonByte\n\n**Warning Contains Very Basic Math** ;-P\n\nAs I am sure all are aware here, Bitcoin is going to hard fork.  On August 1st you will have an amount of Bitcoin Cash equal to the amount of Bitcoins you hold (I wont be getting into the details of where to hold your BTC for this to happen).  What happens after the fork, is purely a game of speculation, and any one telling you otherwise is pulling your chain.  But that doesn't mean we shouldn't look at real numbers and values that exist in the crypto market and see if we can sculpt a reasonable market reaction.\n  \nFirstly we should take into account the current market cap of Bitcoin, which is around 45 billion according to coinmarketcap.  If we look at the Bitcoin Cash (Futures) we see its valued around USD 350.  To get an estimation of the market cap for Bitcoin Cash we can do a little extra simple math.\n\n  if BTC is roughly 2,700 USD then 2,700 / 350 = 7.7 and 45bil / 7.7 = 5.8bil\n\nSo BCC Market cap is roughly 5.8 billion.  Now if you look at other market caps you’ll see that this value for BCC would place it 4th between Ripple and Litecoin.  Now comes the part where my opinion will really start to influence the math.  Keep in mind you can adjust any of the values for ones that you think more likely.  Personally I don’t think BCC deserves a seat in the top 5 cryptos, at least not until its had time to prove its worth.  Honestly I think BCC’s market cap should be in the 10th to 20th range.  But in order to be more moderate I will assume that BCC finds it’s value in the 5th to 10th slot.  That would put it’s ‘realish' value between a 1.5 billion and 500 million  market cap.  Now we want to see what one BCC would then be worth. so…\n\nif market cap = 1.5bil then 45bil / 1.5bil = 30 and 2,700 / 30 = 90\n\t\tso one BCC = $90\nif market cap = 500mil then 45bil / 500mil = 90 and 2,700 / 90 = 30\n\t\tso one BCC = $30\n\nNotice you can replace the market cap values with whatever range you think BCC should be valued at.  Continuing with the assumption that BCC should be valued somewhere between the 5th and 10th place, we can clearly see that it is extremely over valued in the futures market. Now we can try to reasonably predict market reaction if BCC comes onto the market at a value around $350 for one coin.\n\nNow it should be noted that,  UNLESS the value of BCC subtracts an equal value of its worth from BTC then any extra value in your account will be free money.   For example if a publicly traded company who's shares trade at $100 a share split their shares by two, effectively doubling the number of shares, the share price would go to $50.  Even though the per share value dropped, the market cap of the company remains the same.  This is important when examining the the distribution of BCC because either BTC and BCC ’s market caps when combined should nearly equal the current 45 billion market cap that BTC currently has.   If this does not happen then essentially a bunch of people will wake up to free money in their wallets and will probably be looking to do something with it.\n\nSo here we can start speculating on human psychology.  My guess is that a lot of people will notice how over valued BCC is and want to quickly cash in on part of their position and then keep some to hold long term.  Because I can’t guess everyones trading strategies I will assume that if this happened a lot of people would simply sell half the BCC they have and hold the rest.  If you apply $90 -$30 you could take the average of the two at $60 but I’m going to use $50 cause it will make the following example ultra easy.  \n\nYou can imagine a mad sell off to the $50 range while people cash in on half their position.  Here it gets a little more interesting because we can calculate an approximate value that people would take in profits during the sell off.  To make it simple we will assume that the rate of BCC being sold stays constant from $350 to $50.  And we are continuing the assumption that half of BCC will be cashed in on.  BCC Supply should match BTC supply so half of roughly 16.5 million coins equals 8.25 million coins.\n\n350 / 50 = 7 and 8.25mil / 7 = 1.18mil\n\n(350x1.18)+(300x1.18)+(250x1.18)+(200x1.18)+(150x1.18)+(100x1.18)+(50x1.18)\n\t\t= $1,652,000,000\n\nSo potentially the community that participates in the sell off may reap about 1.7 billion in profits from free tokens that popped up in their wallets.  So now what are people going to do with this 1.7 billion?  Cash in? Buy more BTC? Or buy back into some of their favorite alt coins which are currently very conveniently priced reasonably cheap compared to their recent run. My bet would be that we will see some alt coins make major runs in the next few weeks as people put their money in projects they believe in or that have treated them well in the past.  Realistically 1.7 billion isn't that much compared to the near 90 billion dollar market cap of the cryptoverse, just about 2%.  But keep in mind that just 5% of 1.7 billion is 85 million.  \n\nNow ask your self what 85 million freshly injected into your favorite alt coin would do?  For example one of my favorite runts on the block is Digibyte who's market cap currently has it ranked in the 30’s but if you look at the daily volume charts is often much closer to top then you realize.  DGB’s market cap is about 140 million so an injection of 5% would raise its market cap by more then half and if it took on 10% of those profits its market cap would more then double placing it round the 15th to 20th slot for market caps.  Again compare your favorite coins market cap to those figures and play around with the different variables. \n\nAnyways this is just my own way of trying to rationalize what might happen in the next few days.  Hopefully this helps some of you make your own plan.",
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