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      "body": "<html>\n<p><strong>Mistake #1: Pressuring for the sale too early</strong></p>\n<p>One of the mistakes that salespeople often make is pushing for the sale too early. Immediately they try to push for the sale to a prospect. So what's the issue with this? There are several issues:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>You probably haven't qualified your prospects properly</li>\n  <li>You haven't identified what your prospect's needs are</li>\n  <li>You spend less time negotiating, which means potentially getting a worse deal than you initially thought</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Solution: Give your prospect some breathing room</strong></p>\n<p>By giving your prospect some breathing room with the sale and instead trying to understand what your prospect's needs are and who they are, it allows you to seem less like a salesperson and more like a regular person. Coming off as a salesperson can be off-putting, which is why people who often pressure for some action without deciding if you're even interested in the first place or if they have your attention are so obnoxious.</p>\n<p>First, understand who your prospect actually <em>is</em>. As a person. What do they do? What kind of person are they? Not only does this allow you to remove much of the \"salesman persona\" people often think of when they think of salespeople, it's also incredibly useful because it gives you more information that can be used during negotiations. Maybe, after you talk with them, you realize that the prospect doesn't actually need the service or product that you're providing. They could be looking for something else entirely. &nbsp;Maybe you realize that your prospects needs are different than what you initially expected. Or maybe you find out that your prospect is interested in safety in their products and they're very cautious. That can help guide your decision in what you're trying to sell them.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Mistake #2: Thinking \"No\" means \"Never\"</strong></p>\n<p>Sometimes a prospect will tell you that they're not interested in your product. A mistake that salesperson will make is assuming that this means that the prospect is not interested in the product and will never will be interested in the product. This is simply not true. This will lead to the salesperson not pursuing the prospect. Let's depack what \"no\" actually means from a prospect. All that \"no\" means is \"I'm not currently interested in what I understand is the service/product you're offering me\". This can mean a number of different things, but it almost never means \"I will never be interested in doing business with you whatsoever.\" By identifying a \"no\" as a \"bad prospect\", you're losing out on a lot of potential sales.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Another issue is that salespeople often view a failed sale as a bad thing and something to avoid as much as possible. While it's true that a failed sale isn't the greatest moment in the world, viewing a failed sale as only a negative event is a poor attitude to have. Instead, you should view a failed sale as an opportunity to learn and understand where there are weaknesses in your sales process. You are able to learn much more from a failed sale than a sale that you closed. Why? Because a failed sale means something went wrong in your sales process, so that means you can identify a way to improve your sales process.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Solution: Realize that \"No\" simply means \"Not right now, based on what I understand your service/product is\"</strong></p>\n<p>It's important to not take objections that prospects have at face value, but to dig deeper and try to understand what the prospect really feels about something. There are often many factors that lead to a prospect giving an objection to a sale, such as having to pay too high of a price, not understanding what your product is, or believing that they don't need your product. Recognize that there are solutions to these objections during the sales process.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>First, realize that your prospect's objection is based on their understanding of the product or service that you provide. In some instances, this understanding that they have can be incorrect. Make sure that in your sales process, you explain clearly and directly to your prospect exactly the type of service/product you provide so the prospect can accurately judge whether they need you. This is somewhat nuanced, so I'd put yourself in a prospect's shoes and see if there's any other ways that you might understand your product/service differently than how you envision it.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Second, use objections as a way to improve your sales process. Identify what exactly what went wrong during the sale. Perhaps you didn't qualify your prospect properly, and they're not that great of a prospect after all because they don't need your services. Once you realize that, you should identify better ways to qualify your prospects. Perhaps a prospect says something like, \"I don't like dealing with salespeople\" and hangs up the phone or stops answering your messages. That probably means you haven't built up enough trust, and you need to identify ways to have the prospect view you not a salesperson but as somebody who can provide them a solution to their problem.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Mistake #3: Not addressing a prospect's needs/wants</strong></p>\n<p>Another common mistake that salespeople make is stating all the \"amazing\" features of the product or service that they're trying to sell, without understanding what the prospect is actually looking for. Take the infamous \"sell me this pen\" statement that employers give when interviewing for a salesperson. You, a budding salesperson, think it's your job to amaze the interviewer with all the great qualities of the pen. So you start naming them off. \"Well, the pen is incredibly sleek, it's tough and it doesn't get wear and tear, blah blah blah blah blah\". Where did you go wrong? You don't understand what the prospect WANTS!</p>\n<p>You need to understand what your prospect wants before you try to sell them on all the features and amazing qualities of the product or service you provide. If you don't know what your prospect needs, you've already lost before you tried to sell them.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Solution: Understand exactly what your prospect needs/wants are and sell them a solution&nbsp;</strong></p>\n<p><br>\nMaybe ask them a question about how they write -- do they often make mistakes when writing? Maybe they don't need a pen then, maybe they actually need a pencil. What are they often writing about? Are they usually writing notes for meetings? Then they probably want the notes to be easily legible, so you can emphasize how the pen makes it so that your writing doesn't smear. I think you're starting to get my point. Before you can sell the prospect on a product, you need to first make sure the prospect actually wants it in the first place. Then you need to understand exactly what it is that they're looking for so you can provide them a solution to whatever it is. Any salesperson worth their salt should know the SPIN technique when selling. What does it stand for? Situation, Problem, Implication, Need- &nbsp;Payoff</p>\n<ul>\n  <li><strong>Situation:</strong> Used to collect facts about the prospect / their situation.</li>\n  <li><strong>Problem:</strong> Probing questions trying to identify problems, points of dissatisfaction or general difficulties that the prospect has.</li>\n  <li><strong>Implications:</strong> More in-depth probing for the consequences of a problem or the point of dissatisfaction based on information gained from previous questions.</li>\n  <li><strong>Need-payoff:</strong> Need questions uncover the core need or buying realization for the prospect. They focus their attention on the solution and the benefits they will receive as a result, rather than the product/service you are selling.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Mistake #4: Negotiating only in dollar terms</strong></p>\n<p>Another mistake that salespeople make is during the negotiation process of the sale. Let's say you've qualified your prospect, and they're interested, but now you've reached an impasse. Maybe your pricing is too high, or maybe the prospect isn't willing to budge on $X amount that they're willing to pay for your service. What's the problem? The problem is that you're approaching the negotiation only in terms of dollars.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Solution: Be willing to negotiate other concessions</strong></p>\n<p>If a prospect is completely unwilling to negotiate on dollar terms, they still might be open to negotiation other concessions that you ask for that aren't in explicit dollar terms. Let's say you're trying to sell to another business. Maybe you ask the prospect to throw in a complimentary service that they provide. Or maybe you ask, then, that the prospect agrees to pay for the service sooner &nbsp;than usual. By negotiating non-dollar concessions, you're able to bring the ball back into your court. Prospects are also more likely to be willing to agree to non-dollar concessions that you ask for, even if they aren't willing to negotiate strictly in dollars that they pay you.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong><br>\nMistake #5: Becoming emotionally invested in a sale</strong></p>\n<p>Another mistake that a salesperson can make is becoming too emotionally invested into a sale. Having some emotion is good as, after all, it doesn't want to look like you don't care at all about the prospect. But it's important that you become so emotionally invested into the sale that you will do everything to close the sale, even if it means putting yourself in a worse position than you were at the beginning. Salespeople that become too emotionally invested in closing a sale will often do anything to close it, even to the point of making unfavorable negotiations on their side or conceding to a price too quickly. It's understandable that salespeople can often be emotionally invested in a sale -- after all, it's what constitutes their livelihood. But it's important to not allow those emotions to get in the way of the sale and making poor decisions during the sales process.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Solution: Approach a sale objectively and rationally. Only use emotions as a negotiation tactic</strong></p>\n<p>If you're to the point where you're making any and all concessions you can for the other person so you can close the sale, even to the point of it putting you in a worse position than before, something has gone wrong. You MUST approach a sale objectively and rationally, and make sure that you're only giving the prospect as many concessions as necessary and no more.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>It's also important to not be emotionally invested in a sale, and to only use emotions as a negotiation tactic. What do I mean by this? Let's say a prospect agrees to use your service and says they will pay $15,000. After the prospect tells you that, he notices that you seem in disbelief and somewhat angry. \"There's no way you think we're going to take that low of an offer,\" you say. The key here is that you are using emotions only as a negotiation tactic, to reinforce the point that you're trying to make. But if you're actually in disbelief and angry at what the prospect gives you, you might start making bad decisions during the negotiation. Stating calmly that you're not going to take a low offer is acceptable, stating \"what the f--- kind of low offer is that?\" and hanging up is not. If you think that's unbelievable, it's actually happened to me once before. Any respect that I once had for the person or the service they provided was completely ruined.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Don't let your emotions guide you during the negotiation process. &nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Mistake #6: Pricing yourself too low</strong></p>\n<p>Another mistake is that salespeople will often price a product or service too low because they believe that the prospect will be more likely to agree to terms that way if they do. There are several problems with this approach, such as:</p>\n<ul>\n  <li>This often leads to people who are cheap using your product. These people, in my experience, expect the world and more from you and give you little in return.&nbsp;</li>\n  <li>This can also lead to a negative view of your business, and the people who use your business. Think of the average person that shops at Walmart. &nbsp;&nbsp;</li>\n  <li>This low sales price is usually the <strong>beginning</strong> of the negotiation, not the end of it. Prospects will usually try to negotiate down from the price you offer them. If you're already pricing a product so low that your margins are razor thin, there's not much room for negotiation.&nbsp;</li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>Solution: Price your product/service higher than you think it should be priced</strong></p>\n<p>Raise your prices! Why? Because you're usually pricing it too low. Furthermore, as long as it's not excessive, I'd rather be priced too high than too low. This is because when I'm priced too high, there's always room for negotiation to go lower and make the prospect feel as though they're getting into a win-win scenario, while you get exactly what you're looking for. Let's say you want at least $6,000 for a product you're selling, but you decide instead to offer to sell it for $12,000. A prospect says they're interested in the product, but they think it's priced too high. So you offer to sell it to them for $9,000, which is 25% off. Suddenly, your prospect thinks they're getting a good deal, while you're still getting more than you're originally looking for.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The other scenario, of course, is that the prospect decides to take you up on your high price. This is still a win-win scenario for both people: You get more money than you were hoping for, while the prospect gets a service/product that they were looking for.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Mistake #7: Not being willing to cut your losses short</strong></p>\n<p>Finally, not being willing to cut your losses short is a big mistake that salespeople make. This comes down to what I call the \"close mentality\" that salespeople have -- the idea that they need to close each and every prospect no matter what. Sometimes, however, the opportunity cost of trying to close a sale is high. Say you've spent a long-time trying to close a sale, and it's not that great of a sale anyway. In the same time, you could've closed other sales and made more money.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>I faced this issue when I was running my social media marketing business Veyeral. I faced low prices because of the high amount of competition, and I began to realize that I was spending more and more time pursuing prospects that were willing to pay less and less for my services. Simply put, the market had become over-saturated. I was also doing copywriting for businesses on the side, and I further realized that if I had focused all my time on copywriting instead of social media marketing I would be making much more money. After consulting with my business partner, who stated that he didn't want to continue the business unless I worked with him, we mutually decided it was in our best interests to shut down the business entirely, including the website itself. My business partner is now doing his own social media marketing business, and I wish him the best of luck. I'm doing copywriting now. It's all about what our opportunity costs are and being willing to cut your losses when you realize the opportunity too high of not doing something is too high. <br>\n &nbsp;&nbsp;<strong><br>\nSolution: Recognize when the opportunity cost of something is too high and exit&nbsp;</strong></p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "I'm a fan of Taleb, too. It seems like he made his fortune by finding people who think that they understand something really complicated, then betting against them. People who study complicated systems tend to make simpler mental models of them and start to forget that the system does not follow the model under all circumstances.",
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      "body": "@@ -13934,8 +13934,189 @@\n  expect.\n+%0A%0A**Liked my article and would like more content? Please donate!**%0A%0ABitcoin Address: 1FGsitTT5iwRCU7FWiioBEUKq4BiUqnjpS%0A%0AEthereum Address: 0x340730fd31c2cdf8d5c4f4cd7299d775e6e44129\n",
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      "body": "Author: Christopher Durr\n\n![blackswan.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQM1bpXpSghAosdCAWLehMacamckNaGGKkekPgnnyNC74/blackswan.jpg)\n\n# Introduction\n\nI recently re-read the notes that I took on the book The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb, which can be found [here](https://github.com/christopherdurr/booknotes/blob/master/blackswan.md). When I first read The Black Swan, it completely changed my viewpoint on how systems work and function. Rereading my notes, I immediately realized that many of the principles from The Black Swan could be applied to the space of cryptocurrency today.  In this post, I will use ideas from The Black Swan to analyze cryptocurrencies as a whole and hopefully allow you, the readers, to gain some more insight into systems not only behind cryptocurrency but also in systems in general. \n\nPlease note that in this article, when I use the word cryptocurrency I am also including blockchain technology within that definition. \n\n# Our Illusion of Understanding\n\nAs humans, we suffer from various mental biases that cause us to believe things that are not in fact true, especially when it comes to looking back at history. These three mental biases are:\n\n1. The illusion of understanding, or how everyone thinks he knows what is going on in a world that is more complicated (or random) than they realize\n2. The retrospective distortion, or how we can assess matters only after the fact, as if they were in a rearview mirror\n3. The overvaluation of factual information and the handicap of authoritative and learned people\n\nI believe that points one and two are the most salient for this discussion when it comes to cryptocurrency. The first point applies to when we believe we understand how the world works when in reality we do not. I find this especially prevalent when I attempt to explain to others how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies work to other family-members and friends. To them, they believe digital currencies cannot have any value because it is artificial. They believe they understand how money works, when in reality they suffer from the illusion of understanding.\n\nThat's not to say that those that understand the value of cryptocurrencies don't also suffer from this mental bias.  I am sure that I too have only an illusory understanding of cryptocurrency, and that in 10/20 years cryptocurrencies will be able to accomplish things that I had never even thought of before. Take Amazon, as an example, which when it started out only sold books. Now you can buy practically anything on Amazon with the mere click of a button. It would've been difficult in the late 90's to predict that Amazon would go that route, and yet here we are. The same principle applies to cryptocurrency as well. \n\nThe second point,  regarding retrospective distortion, is also important because that's what gives us the \"I knew it all along\" attitude. Nassim Taleb explains retrospective distortion by stating \"Much of what took place would have been deemed completely crazy with respect to the past. Yet it did not seem that crazy after the events.\" I believe that this will be the case for cryptocurrency as well. In 10/20 years, the same people who dismissed or did not understand cryptocurrencies will see it as an inevitability which was bound to happen. Of course, when it comes to cryptocurrency the growth and adoption will become exponential. As Taleb states -- *\"History and societies do not crawl. They jump\".* I truly believe cryptocurrency will be that next jump in our society. \n\n## The Turkey Fallacy\n\n![turkey.jpg](http://www.sunsigns.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/turkey.jpg)\n\nI believe that the Turkey Fallacy is the perfect example of our illusory understanding of the world. Here is the story behind the fallacy:\n\nA turkey is selected by a family to be the turkey for Thanksgiving. In order to prepare the turkey for the feast, the family begins to give the turkey extra food months before Thanksgiving to make it extra plump. Now, in the turkey's view, he has it pretty good. He is consistently being fed more and more food. In fact, if the turkey assumes this will continue forever he'll have a pretty good life. Finally, on the day of Thanksgiving, the family takes the turkey and kills it immediately to feast on it. \n\nThe Turkey Fallacy is essentially this: Things work until they don't. What we learn from the past turns out to be either irrelevant or completely false, and at worst looking at the past as an example of the future can be incredibly misleading. This was no doubt the case with the turkey, and this will also be the case with cryptocurrency as well. A cryptocurrency in the top 20 marketcap, for example, may have a fatal security flaw and suddenly it becomes worthless. The best way to prevent this type of event from affecting you is by diversifying your cryptocurrency portfolio.   \n\nThat unexpected event is what Taleb calls a black swan, and it comes from the fact that explorers in the 14th century believed all swans were white. One day, however, they came upon a black swan and that worldview was shattered. \n\nBlack swans can be both positive and negative, but a key point to remember is that positive black swans take time to show their effect while negative black swans can happen very rapidly. This can no doubt be seen with cryptocurrencies as well. Negative black swans, such as The DAO hack, happened very rapidly and caused the price of Ethereum to crater very quickly. Meanwhile positive black swans, such as applications that can be built on Ethereum, will generally take much longer to show their effects because it takes time for those positive events to occur.\n\n# Confirming our Worldview\n\nThe major reason that people do not become aware of black swans is because people more often than not wish to confirm what they already believe, instead of what the truth actually is. If you look hard enough, it is easy to find sources that confirm what you believe to be true. \n\nUnfortunately, this is the wrong way to view things. You should look at the evidence and then reach a hypothesis, instead of the other way around. As soon as you formulate a hypothesis, you should immediately try to find evidence to the contrary of your hypothesis to test it. Ask yourself, \"what evidence would prove me wrong?\" If you find evidence that goes against the validity of your hypothesis, then readjust your hypothesis. This type of thinking allows you to formulate well-structured, thorough hypotheses on things. This is especially important when it comes to cryptocurrency, as the field tends to learn towards complex hypotheses as opposed to simple ones. The world lends itself more to shades of grey as opposed to simple black-and-white viewpoints, which usually only serve as naive simplifications of complex issues.\n\n## Why we can't predict black swans\n\nA key component of black swans is that they are highly asymmetrical in terms of consequences. If you look at Bitcoin, for example, you will see what I mean. The rise in value of one Bitcoin in the past 7 years was massive and, even for people who understood what Bitcoin was capable of, would be nearly impossible to predict. Other black swans, such as the DAO hack, caused an extremely negative outlook for Ethereum and cryptocurrency as a whole. \n\nOne can see why it would be useful to be able to predict a black swan -- after all, if we can see it coming then we can avoid its effects entirely. Unfortunately, predicting black swans is nearly impossible. Why? Because we have an innate bias to think we know more than we actually do. This is also known as *epistemic arrogance*, which is hubris concerning the limits of our own knowledge. \n\nThe issue, too, is that people may acknowledge this fact but believe that experts in a field are somehow more capable of predicting these types of things than normal people. In fact, the more we view ourselves as an \"expert\" in a field the more our estimations become inaccurate in other fields: Janitors and cabdrivers were able to make more significantly accurate predictions in random facts like the height of a building than Harvard MBAs. \n\nStudies have shown that people who professionally make forecasts are especially prone to this type of mental bias. Public price predictions of Bitcoin that predict the price will reach [$100,000 in 10 years](http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/31/bitcoin-price-forecast-hit-100000-in-10-years.html) or even [$1 billion](https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/fox-business-speculates-bitcoin-price-reach-1-billion/) are more based on making sensational headlines and news stories than being based in reality. People who publicly state price predictions are usually incentivized to make outlandish claims because:\n\n1. It makes for a good headline\n2. It gives them the \"knew it all along\" if they turn out to be right. These people will be heralded as geniuses or market \"wizards\"\n3. If they're wrong, they can simply deflect questioning. Most likely, the price prediction will be forgotten quickly anyway. \n\nWhen you perform incorrect predictions, you usually deflect in three ways:\n\n1. You tell yourself that you were playing a different game entirely. \n2. You invoke the outlier. i.e. \"that event was one in a million so there was no way to predict it!\"\n3. You use the \"almost right\" defense: You focus on the parts you got right, not the ones you got wrong. \n\nIt's also important to remember that sophisticated or complex methods of predicting events does not necessarily lead to more accurate forecasts than simpler methods. \n\n# Tools and Toys\n\nThe most important advances we have in society are also the least predictable. Bitcoin is a clear example of this. Almost all advances in society are the direct result of a tool that was built. These tools can lead to unexpected effects and outcomes, which themselves can lead to even more unexpected outcomes. Whatever tools lead to, they rarely are used exactly for what they were first intended for. Facebook was originally exclusively for Harvard students.  Taking a more outlandish example, Play-Doh was originally created because Kroger wanted a product that could clean coal residue from wallpaper. \n\n![facebook.png](https://www.seeklogo.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/facebook-logo-vector-400x400.png)\n\n\"We build toys. Some of those toys change the world\". \n\nThe best way to get maximal exposure to positive black swans is to continue researching and gathering potential opportunities. It is important, however, that we do not use the past too often as a reference for what the future will be. Too often, when we think of tomorrow we project it as just another yesterday. As the common saying goes, \"Past performance is not indicative of future results.\" Even if the past were somehow an indication of what is to come, we do not truly know much about the past either. \n\nIt's also important to distinguish between chaotic and random systems. Random systems are completely random and do not have any predictable properties. Chaotic systems, on the other hand, have predictable properties but are difficult to understand and know. Lottery numbers are random, the price of a cryptocurrency is chaotic. Being able to tell the difference between the two is key in discovering areas where you can find black swans. \n\n## How to maximize the effect of (positive) black swans\n\nNow that you understand what black swans are and how difficult they are to detect, what can you do in order to increase the likelihood that you effected by a black swan? You must maximize your serendipity. Serendipity is defined as \"the occurrence and development of events by chance in a happy or beneficial way\". To maximize your serendipity, you must find instances where there are highly asymmetrical positive payouts (e.g. Bitcoin, other altcoins, etc.) and increase your exposure to these instances as much as possible. \n\nWhen exposing yourself to these highly asymmetrical opportunities, you must do it in a number of different fields or areas in order to diversify serendipity while limiting your downside but maximizing your upside potential. Let's use another field besides cryptocurrency as an example of this: venture capital. Let's say that a venture capitalist invests $25k into 10 various startups one year after their founding, all of which could  potentially have positive black swans. Let's say that 8/10 of those companies experience negative black swans and those go bankrupt. Out of the two companies that's left, one of them happens to break even and you make your money back but that's it. Unfortunately, you're still $200k down. But what about the last company? What if that last company you invested in were Uber, or Facebook?  Suddenly that $25k could potentially be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, more than making up for your other losses. The same principle applies with investing in cryptocurrency: You probably won't be able to pick exactly the next big winner, but you could probably diversify among 10 different coins that could have positive black swans in the future. \n\n![Bitcoin Price](http://14085-presscdn-0-63.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/bitcoin_price_forecast_2017.jpg)\n\nIt is usually futile to exactly predict black swans, as usually what occurs is reading the signal as the noise and over-interpreting data. Instead, it is recommended that you instead spend your time looking for areas where there is a strong possibility a positive black swan could exist, even if you don't know exactly what it is yet. Seize anything that looks like an opportunity, because they are much, much rarer than you think. Remember that to feel the effects of positive black swans, you must be exposed to them first. \n\nLastly, remember that usually there will be periods of calm and stability punctuated with massive change (for better or for worse) concentrated from a small number of black swans. Those black swans are the ones to look out for, and the ones you least expect.",
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      "author": "benjaminadams",
      "body": "SERIOUSLY WHAT THE HELL HOW DID I NOT SEE THAT!\n\nI would have sat there all day and bought and sold BTC",
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      "body": "@@ -6828,8 +6828,6806 @@\n quences.\n+ If you look at Bitcoin, for example, you will see what I mean. The rise in value of one Bitcoin in the past 7 years was massive and, even for people who understood what Bitcoin was capable of, would be nearly impossible to predict. Other black swans, such as the DAO hack, caused an extremely negative outlook for Ethereum and cryptocurrency as a whole. %0A%0AOne can see why it would be useful to be able to predict a black swan -- after all, if we can see it coming then we can avoid its effects entirely. Unfortunately, predicting black swans is nearly impossible. Why? Because we have an innate bias to think we know more than we actually do. This is also known as *epistemic arrogance*, which is hubris concerning the limits of our own knowledge. %0A%0AThe issue, too, is that people may acknowledge this fact but believe that experts in a field are somehow more capable of predicting these types of things than normal people. In fact, the more we view ourselves as an %22expert%22 in a field the more our estimations become inaccurate in other fields: Janitors and cabdrivers were able to make more significantly accurate predictions in random facts like the height of a building than Harvard MBAs. %0A%0AStudies have shown that people who professionally make forecasts are especially prone to this type of mental bias. Public price predictions of Bitcoin that predict the price will reach %5B$100,000 in 10 years%5D(http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/31/bitcoin-price-forecast-hit-100000-in-10-years.html) or even %5B$1 billion%5D(https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/fox-business-speculates-bitcoin-price-reach-1-billion/) are more based on making sensational headlines and news stories than being based in reality. People who publicly state price predictions are usually incentivized to make outlandish claims because:%0A%0A1. It makes for a good headline%0A2. It gives them the %22knew it all along%22 if they turn out to be right. These people will be heralded as geniuses or market %22wizards%22%0A3. If they're wrong, they can simply deflect questioning. Most likely, the price prediction will be forgotten quickly anyway. %0A%0AWhen you perform incorrect predictions, you usually deflect in three ways:%0A%0A1. You tell yourself that you were playing a different game entirely. %0A2. You invoke the outlier. i.e. %22that event was one in a million so there was no way to predict it!%22%0A3. You use the %22almost right%22 defense: You focus on the parts you got right, not the ones you got wrong. %0A%0AIt's also important to remember that sophisticated or complex methods of predicting events does not necessarily lead to more accurate forecasts than simpler methods. %0A%0A# Tools and Toys%0A%0AThe most important advances we have in society are also the least predictable. Bitcoin is a clear example of this. Almost all advances in society are the direct result of a tool that was built. These tools can lead to unexpected effects and outcomes, which themselves can lead to even more unexpected outcomes. Whatever tools lead to, they rarely are used exactly for what they were first intended for. Facebook was originally exclusively for Harvard students.  Taking a more outlandish example, Play-Doh was originally created because Kroger wanted a product that could clean coal residue from wallpaper. %0A%0A%22We build toys. Some of those toys change the world%22. %0A%0AThe best way to get maximal exposure to positive black swans is to continue researching and gathering potential opportunities. It is important, however, that we do not use the past too often as a reference for what the future will be. Too often, when we think of tomorrow we project it as just another yesterday. As the common saying goes, %22Past performance is not indicative of future results.%22 Even if the past were somehow an indication of what is to come, we do not truly know much about the past either. %0A%0AIt's also important to distinguish between chaotic and random systems. Random systems are completely random and do not have any predictable properties. Chaotic systems, on the other hand, have predictable properties but are difficult to understand and know. Lottery numbers are random, the price of a cryptocurrency is chaotic. Being able to tell the difference between the two is key in discovering areas where you can find black swans. %0A%0A## How to maximize the effect of (positive) black swans%0A%0ANow that you understand what black swans are and how difficult they are to detect, what can you do in order to increase the likelihood that you effected by a black swan? You must maximize your serendipity. Serendipity is defined as %22the occurrence and development of events by chance in a happy or beneficial way%22. To maximize your serendipity, you must find instances where there are highly asymmetrical positive payouts (e.g. Bitcoin, other altcoins, etc.) and increase your exposure to these instances as much as possible. %0A%0AWhen exposing yourself to these highly asymmetrical opportunities, you must do it in a number of different fields or areas in order to diversify serendipity while limiting your downside but maximizing your upside potential. Let's use another field besides cryptocurrency as an example of this: venture capital. Let's say that a venture capitalist invests $25k into 10 various startups one year after their founding, all of which could  potentially have positive black swans. Let's say that 8/10 of those companies experience negative black swans and those go bankrupt. Out of the two companies that's left, one of them happens to break even and you make your money back but that's it. Unfortunately, you're still $200k down. But what about the last company? What if that last company you invested in were Uber, or Facebook?  Suddenly that $25k could potentially be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, more than making up for your other losses. The same principle applies with investing in cryptocurrency: You probably won't be able to pick exactly the next big winner, but you could probably diversify among 10 different coins that could have positive black swans in the future. %0A%0AIt is usually futile to exactly predict black swans, as usually what occurs is reading the signal as the noise and over-interpreting data. Instead, it is recommended that you instead spend your time looking for areas where there is a strong possibility a positive black swan could exist, even if you don't know exactly what it is yet. Seize anything that looks like an opportunity, because they are much, much rarer than you think. Remember that to feel the effects of positive black swans, you must be exposed to them first. %0A%0ALastly, remember that usually there will be periods of calm and stability punctuated with massive change (for better or for worse) concentrated from a small number of black swans. Those black swans are the ones to look out for, and the ones you least expect.\n",
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      "author": "wekkel",
      "body": "Good points. For now - biased as I am - I am on the side of one of Taleb's asymmetric bets. Limited downside (my investment) and enormous upside (wealth transfer). Not just by means of cryptocurrency by the way.",
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      "author": "kbarrett",
      "body": "Absolutely! So long as you have the initial funds to set up an exchange site like that... if people are willing to give you an extra $1,300 per BTC, buying and selling for profit becomes easy lol",
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      "author": "endlessadventure",
      "body": "Thanks a lot, we're excited to share with the Steemit community and to find others with a passion for travel and food!",
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      "author": "durrchristopher",
      "body": "This man is a living legend haha. He will go down in history books",
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