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      "body": "Fundamental Analysis on the Markets\nAndre Schneider Jiménez\nJune 2019\n\nSECTIONS\nINTRO\n\nI\nSTOCKS\n\nII\nBONDS\n\nIII\nYIELDS & EURODOLLARS\n\nIV\nGOLD & SILVER\n\nV\nCRYPTOCURRENCY\n\nVI\nENERGY & OIL\n\nVII\nAGRICULTURE\n\nVIII\nGOVERNMENT CRYPTOCURRENCY\n\nIX\nCENTRAL BANKS\nSWITZERLAND &BOJ\n\n\n\n\nINTRO\nthis Is a small article  I write in  June of 2019 with the finality to be read in the future and realize that much of the analysis I will cover will become true or maybe a fraction of it. I believe that this information if used properly can create profit for the user, but its not intended to be financial advice, just my personal opinion from the things I’ve been reading online.\n\n\nThere is a saying that I’ve read online that says “More Millionaires were created in the Great depression than in other time in history”, although it may not be true, the reason why I emphasize on this text is because the economy is a zero sum game almost always, one mans debt is the other mans liability, so in a world in which an asset goes up, another must go down, money flows from one part to another.\n\n\nStocks usually go up like stairs and fall like an elevator, the reason why timing falls is so lucrative is because time has such a big effect on the value of assets, so with the correct timing a lot can be made.\n\n\n\nIn order to prove that this document was made in June, I attach a XRP transaction made a few days ago, to validate the exact timestamp. I sent 1 XRP from one account to another.\n\n\n\nI start this article stating that on the 16th of January 2018 I wrote my first article in which I spoke about the overvaluation of the stock market In relationship to past years using  multiples and also because future growth seemed difficult due to contracting money supply.\n\nhttps://steemit.com/crisis/@dreder/poppin-bubbles-2018-edition\n\nIt was called “Poppin Bubbles”, although the downfall did not happen in 2018 we did have 2 corrections which didn’t go down enough, to where fair value would be according to my mind.\n\n\nI have to write this article in June due to the fact that whenever July comes, I believe the fed will cut rates and we will start to see a bull market in gold and silver and cryptocurrencies, why? Because of the amount of debt in the world.\n\n\n\nStocks\n\n\nStocks for the most part of the recovery (2008-Now) have done well, the US markets attracting capital from around the world because of a strong perception of the economy and also because of currency depreciation around the world, like the Turkish Lira or Argentine Peso.\n\n \n\n\n*Chart & Credits from/to NorthMan Trader\n\n \n\n\nIn this chart we can see MACD turning bearish, although we had a false signal in 2015. It can now be confirmed because unemployment is too low now, and also bond yields are too low in relation to the Federal Funds rate. *Chart from NorthManTrader.com\n\n\nNow, another thing that must be understood in order to understand the high prices of stock nowdays is because of whats called “Corporate Buybacks”.\n\nA company will buy their own stock in order to pay less dividends or to make their EPS higher. It may work at first, but In the long term I’m not sure of its full effects.\n \n\n\nSummarizing the reason why stocks are high now is because there is nowhere else to invest and get a respectable return on investment, so money from around the world is seeking a yield. Since  many currencies are depreciating against the Dollar, like the Turkish lira, Argentine Peso , money flows from damaged countries into the US.\n\nAlthough my own theory and Idea is that money goes into the stock market directly by the Fed by the use of other countries as official buyers. And also the playing of investors feelings by playing them with rate cuts.\n\n \n*Chart from Crescat Capital.\n\nAlso, at the end of an economic cycle, commodities tend to get cheaper because of a lower demand in the near future and equities are very high. So the above chart shows us that commodities are undervalued relative to the S&P, this doesn’t mean they will rally a lot, they may go down equally, but the S&P in a bigger move.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBonds\n\nThe bond market is the Interesting subject in my article.\nSo, bonds are basically an agreement of a loan from one to another. For every debt there is an owner of that asset, so in the whole economy, debt is getting bigger by the day and in the future it will only be paid in 2 ways, default or hyperinflation.\n\n \nSo, Debt in all sectors has been expanding always meaning there is no way for the system to deleverage in a way that wont hurt the economy.\nThe only time the debt went down was in 2008 when the Fed purchased 4.5 Trillion dollars of assets from the major banks in order for the banks to not do a bail-in  and take depositors capital.\n\nIn order to “grow”, debt needs to expand perpetually in this system. Later Ill explain how to profit.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nLong term bonds usually pay more than short term bonds.\nSo Ive been taking Screenshots of the yields of American Bonds.\n\nMay 15th 2019\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\nJune 2nd 2019\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nJune 7th\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nJuly 15th 2019\n \n\n\nWhat is important to notice is that as time went by, yields went down in general, money flowed into bonds making the yields lower, only the 30 year pays more than the Federal Funds rate, so banks aren’t really interested in buying any bonds, since just letting the money set in their own system is more profitable, they get paid on the Interest on Excess Reserve rate.\n\n\n\nYou can also see that the 3 month pays more than the 2yr, actually .32% more, so the market is only discounting a slowdown of .32% in the next 21 months  starting from in 3 months.\n\nSince these bonds trade In tandem I compare them to the FF Rate, which I will do next.\n \n\n\nThe Graph Above signals the Difference between the 5 year and 3 year, once the 3 year pays more than the 5 year the graph turns negative, 3 prior occasions were 1998, 2000 and 2008.\nThis graph is from may but is still relevant, Its negative now.\nExpectations aren’t good in the long term.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\nTo Validate, I add a comparison. S&P is orange and the spread between the 3month and 10year is in blue.\nWhen the orange line ascends we’re near problems in the market because the credit markets are signaling no growth or slower growth in the future.\n\n \nActually, today 15th of July 2019, the 3MY is higher by .051% than the 10YR.\nRed lines are the exact moment in the past when the inversion took place, also in 2000 and 2008.\n\n\n\n \nIn the form of bonds, the national debt is sold to investors or Countries looking for a yield, same story with Student Debt and Auto loans, every liability is someone else’s asset.\nboth markets, student and auto surpass a Trillion each, so its now understandable why the fed never raised rates above 2.4%, the economy would of never sustained any growth above that.\nJust with 22.5 Trillion in national debt, interest payment is 550Billion USD per year, not including the 1-1.5 trillion it goes up on average a year.\n\n\n\nCanada Yield Curve \n*Graph from Crescat Capital.\n\nSome funds analyze the amount of inversions in the curve of the total spread available, the Canadian, for example is inverted now and has a large problem because when the crash does hit, the CAD will loose value because it’s a oil producing nation and also because the real estate market in Canada is very leveraged and dependent on low rates.\n\n\nYields and Eurodollars.\n\nWhat the yield curve symbolizes is that the economy is waiting for lower growth in the future. They also symbolize a credit freeze in a fashion in which its just not as attractive to lend money because banks usually get their funding from short term rates and lend at a long term. \n\nI like the Eurodollar subject because what it is is a way to protect against moves in the Federal Funds rates.\nYou can go long in the Eurodollar futures if you believe a rate cut is coming. \n \n\nI believe the Eurodollar futures could surpass 100 for the first time in history and that’s why Its in this article, because once the Fed target rate is negative, the Eurodollar will be higher than what it is now. \nJust by looking at the graph you can see that the low points are in crisis zones, so we are very near the start of a crisis and just by technical analysis I can assume that going long in Eurodollar Futures is a huge winning trade because of the Leverage involved.\n\n\nGoing Back to yields, \nThere is now  approximately 13 trillion dollars in negative yield bonds.\n In Germany you’d have to purchase a 17 year long Bund just to have a 0% yield bond. Shorter term bonds are negative in order to incentivize the economy.\n\n\n\nHere is the Negative Bond Yield Matrix. United States is a Great to invest in bonds, for now… (Yields do get compensated by FX movements)\n \n\n\nInversions for more than 90 Days.\n\n \nSource: Crescat Capital LLC.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nGold & Silver\nI’m very bullish on both, more bullish on Silver. It’s an asset that hasn’t broken its 1980’s high, while all else have. I’m bullish because Demand is always high and growing, it’s viewed as money. And once investors realize America and the world is heading into Negative rates, assets to protect from inflation will be seen as a good investment.\nThe reason why they’d go up un these rate cuts is because  the dollar would lose value internationally, mostly against Bitcoin, Gold, Silver and Oil and some commodities.\n\n \nAnother reason why Im bullish is Because the Silver Market is manipulated to the downside, year after year banks pay millions in fines to settle. \nTurns out Deutsche Bank is running into huge trouble and in my opinion declare bankruptcy this year.\nThe DBK bankruptcy will be big because they are the largest bank by Deravatives exposure, near 40 Trillion Dollars. So other banks will be in trouble once DBK is broke. \nI’ve analyzed the way out and there are 3 solutions to the problem, DBK brings down the financial system by affecting all large banks in the world, DBK is nationalized and merged with CommerzBank with government funds or DBK is rescued by the German Government with public money or  bail-ins.\n\nAll the above are benefitial for Gold and Silver due to the fact that they all create problems in the Finacial system.  Not to mention the fact that Also JP Morgan has paid millions in Fines for Silver Manipulation.\n\nTotal amount of investable silver is near 20 Billion Dollars, while the Silver market trades 5 trillion dollars a year, the market is very leveraged. Just as a comparison, 10% of the Bitcoin Market Cap could purchase the complete amount of silver held in the New York Comex Vaults.\nNot to mention JPMorgan and other banks are the custodian for the Silver ETF SLV which holds approximately 300 Million ounces. At the same time JPMorgan is the Custodian for 150 Million ounces of Silver which they hold for the beneficial owner, who is unknown.\n\n \n \n\n\n*Historical opinion.\nUS went off the gold standard to print as many dollars and create a lot of “weath” and pay for all expenses of the military while at the same time switching the payment for oil internationally into Dollars, so an artificial demand for dollars would always exist as long as oil is needed.\nThe constitution still says that money can only be gold and silver.\n\n\n\n\nCryptocurrency\nVery Bullish, mostly on Bitcoin, Ripple and Stellar. \nMoney creation has no limit nowdays and as explaned earlier when the economy crashes, rates are going negative and growth will be non existent in many areas of the economy so speculation/investment in cryptocurrency will seem like a good idea.\nNow 1 BTC costs nearly 10,000 USD while in 5 years I believe 1 BTC will at least be 200,000 USD due negative rates and the amount of money created.\n\n\n Bitcoin is deflationary in an inflationary financial world. That’s why it constantly goes up.\n\n\n\n\nXRP is used by some banks to send money instantly. \n\n\n  Stellar is the same as XRP with the difference that it tries to seek ordinary people to use it and send money with it.\n\n\n \n\nHere I attach something called Exter’s Pyramid, at the end of the day there is so much money In the world and not much is needs to make the Cryptocurrency space to double. \nThe total value of all Crypto is worth just  251 Billion today 16th of July 2019.\nUnfunded Liabilities in the US are more than 200 Trillion at the moment.\n\nAnother important thing:\nI belive the US knew that at some point other countries would stark stacking gold because of so much money printing that we now see, so the US government created bitcoin in the 1990’s based on the NSA’s SHA 256 Algorithm.\nWhy? Because the bitcoin creator has 1 million coins, and imagine when bitcoin is the world reserve currency? America looses the dollar reserve status but pumps bitcoin so high that it doesn’t even matter.\nIt could be that the 2017 bitcoin mania was fueled by the Fed in order to create a trickle effect in the American economy. Just like Quantitative Easing or Helicopter money. Spread out the money and how much better could it be if its all anonymous.\n\n\n\n \nAs said earlier, in such a small market, the profits are at least 10X if you wait long enough.\n\n\n \nThis is a linear regression that shows that we should be nearing 40,000 USD per bitcoin this  year and in the future even more, until 330,000 in 2024 per BTC. \n\n\nEnergy and Oil\nThe world is powered by mostly oil and coal.\n\nIn the 60, and 70 less energy had to be spent extracting the energy, nowdays, the amount of debt that companies have is too high to maintain and when the recession hits oil will go lower I believe approximately 30 USD to then go to 100 USD because of money printing.\n\nOil producing companies are fueled by the bond selling assuming that they will become profitable in the future, but because prices will go down for a short amount of time I Believe many companies will be in trouble. \nThat’s why I Believe purchasing CDS’s on Shale oil companies is a good idea in preparation for the recession. \n\n \nBearish on the Companies, Bullish on Oil because Oil is priced in dollars and the dollar will lose value, making the oil price go up after the recession.\n\nOil companies and the pension funds investing in them are in danger due to the fact that in this circular economy, the oil industry is only held by longer term bonds and refinancing at lower interest while pension funds are buying those bonds which at some point be losing value.\n\nA very good site to know about the energy problem is SRSRocco.com, its an honest site with good information.\n\nAgriculture.\nWe are entering the Grand Solar Minimum, which means colder winters and in summer season more humidity and more presence of fungus which will make lots of areas which are now food producing turn into not so good lands.\nThe way to profit is to look for weak companies that produce food in areas far away from the equator and short their bonds with CDS’s. \nThat way when their bonds get degraded we profit. YoY I’ve seen the evidence that many crop producing areas are starting to fail and in the future if the weather keeps getting colder the results will be amplified.\n\nGovernment Cryptocurrency.\nI believe in the future money will be turned even more digital. Now there are only 1.4 Trillion in printed cash while total money supply is near 14.7 Trillion USD. Thanks to Fractional Reserve Lending and credit Cards. So the money really doesn’t exist, so as cryptocurrencies. Its just confidence that tomorrow they will purchase something.\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSwiss Central Bank and Bank of Japan.\n\nMany don’t know this but both countries mentioned above have Negative rates, (you invest 100,000 USD , with a neg. rate of .5% you get back 99,500 USD in a year).\nThis was done in both countries to help the real estate market and keep money in the economy because most of the world is so in debt that its become unpayable.\n \n\nSo with 247 trillion in world debt and a crisis I expect interest rates to go lower in developed economies while in some emerging markets they may se higher rates because they’ll try to make their currency more attractive.\n\nThe point is, the Swiss Central Bank and Bank of Japan (Both private)  purchase equitites worldwide to keep stock prices high. For example, the Swiss do it in order to devalue the frank while purchasing American stocks while in Japan the BoJ does it to keep the market high due to the fact that their stock market high was back in 1989. Ever since Japan went into negative rates it hasn’t grown in real rates, only nominally. I say they haven’t grown in real rates because growth has been fueled just by debt and then made Japan the country with the most debt per Citizen.\n\n \nThese are Japanese Interest rates, today July 19, 19, it is -0.1%.\n\n \nSwiss rates are even worse. -0.75%. \n\n\nFor any ordinary person It just doesn’t make sense to purchase a bond now, only if you are exiting the market and looking for a safe place to put your money, which will even make rates go even more negative when the stock market starts falling. \n\n\nThe Swiss National bank owns a stake of about 90 Billion Dollars in the US stock market. \nWhile Japan, being a larger economy. Its central bank holds an approximate of  259 Billion USD. Or near 3% of the stock market according to Bloomberg.\nhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/boj-considers-etf-lending-program-leaving-market-perplexed\n\n\nThis information is an eye opener into the money creation which will ocurr in the near future and I write the ideas on how to profit onto whats coming because it wont take too much before we se the consecuenses. \nI actually believe that we will se the start of everything with this bank that will go bankrupt (Deutsche Bank) before new year in the Hebrew Calendar which is September 30th of 2019. \nThe Hebrew calendar is important to me in finance because the 2 largest drops occurred on the same day (last day of the year, “Elul 29”) in the years 2001 and 2008. A Difference of 7 years at the exact date.\n\n\nReminder\n\nS&P volume has been going down recently. Preceding another fall.\n \nImage from Crescat LLC\n\n\n\nRate Cuts are not positive for the economy. They are cutting for a reason.\n \nImage from Crescat LLC.\n\n\nThe market is pricing a cut for July 31 and that’s why I have to publish this today July 19th. \nAt the end of the day the recession will just be a small bump in the road, I do believe a great economy comes after this recession. A more digital economy backed by the power of Cryptocurrencies.\n\nAny Ideas to whoever reads my article I can be contacted to the email:\[email protected]\n\n\n\n\n\nThe End\nAndre Schneider Jiménez\n19th Of July 2019",
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      "body": "Congratulations @dreder! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@dreder/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@dreder) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=dreder)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "amount": "3.756 STEEM",
      "memo": ""
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      "author": "dreder",
      "permlink": "re-marketreport-lions-alert-watch-these-three-major-factors-weighing-on-stocks-by-gregory-mannarino-20181018t160928398z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "hi buddy hows it going?",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"money\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}"
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    {
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      "parent_permlink": "so-hey-wwhat-ever-happened-to-bitcon-mooning",
      "author": "bitshareboy",
      "permlink": "re-dreder-so-hey-wwhat-ever-happened-to-bitcon-mooning-20180628t050237377z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "You obviously have no patience. It will happen young grasshopper.",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"bitcoin\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}"
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      "author": "cve3",
      "permlink": "re-dreder-re-marketreport-the-re-creation-of-a-financial-frankenstein-gregory-mannarino-20180628t050140305z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "I'm buying Silver while it's still on sale",
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      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "author": "dreder",
      "permlink": "so-hey-wwhat-ever-happened-to-bitcon-mooning",
      "title": "So hey! wwhat ever happened to Bitcon mooning?",
      "body": "PLEASE TELL ME WAT U THINK IN THE COMMENTS!",
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      "permlink": "re-marketreport-the-re-creation-of-a-financial-frankenstein-gregory-mannarino-20180628t040225135z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "greg, when does silver **spike**????",
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      "permlink": "re-marketreport-important-updates-stocks-bonds-dollar-gold-silver-crypto-by-gregory-mannarino-20180409t200438101z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "*people, where can i see Gregs positions????* i can't find them",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "lmao",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"howto\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}"
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{
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    {
      "parent_author": "marketreport",
      "parent_permlink": "here-is-the-story-with-the-recent-the-sell-off-in-crypto-by-gregory-mannarino",
      "author": "dreder",
      "permlink": "re-marketreport-here-is-the-story-with-the-recent-the-sell-off-in-crypto-by-gregory-mannarino-20180311t220926195z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Does this mean you believe that when stocks crash soon, cryptos will also do that? i think not.",
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      "reward_steem": "0.000 STEEM",
      "reward_sbd": "0.103 SBD",
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      "permlink": "re-rupertbare-re-bixlives-bix-weir-s-horn-of-zeese-on-steemit-20180208t183538176z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "no thanks",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"bix\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}"
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      "permlink": "re-bixlives-bix-weir-s-horn-of-zeese-on-steemit-20180208t183516559z",
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      "body": "when will silver go up?",
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{
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      "parent_permlink": "crisis",
      "author": "dreder",
      "permlink": "poppin-bubbles-2018-edition",
      "title": "Poppin' bubbles, 2018 edition.",
      "body": "Andre Schneider\n\nReasons why the Financial Markets Will correct to what they should be valued in 2018, if this doesnt occur, it will be because a great ammount of money will be printed in order to sustain the stock and debt markets a Little longer.\n\n\nThe most important thing to understand before Reading this is that what we know as “money” is actually just paper that is not backed by anything, but only the confidence of lots of people that tomorrow they will buy something with that cash. \n*this is the case in all the world\n\nDollars are a representantion of debt, in order to create dollars, the Government must ask for a loan from the “FED” which will later be paid by the Governmert with more interest, this is the reason the national debt will keep going up.\n\nThere is a catch, the national debt is too high and from what i understand only the interest payments can be made, without negatively affecting the markets.\n\nIt is like what we see in 2018 in the credit card debt, which surpasses 1 trillion dollars (1,000,000,000,000 USD) as I write this article. Consumers (americans) that are in debt, are paying the mínimum and postponing that debt, just as the National government.\n![Screen Shot 2018-01-14 at 12.43.45 AM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRwyPL2JQ12VvDRqq8Uax8Ec7ixP5bEoR9Kteu7AGA2v4/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-14%20at%2012.43.45%20AM.png)\n \nAs of January 14th, the debt was at nearly 20.6 trillion. Which from my calculations will grow at a faster rate this 2018 than the Real GDP of the American Economy.\n\n*I state “real” economy, because when stating GDP in some websites they dont take in account inflation, which in the antithesis of growth.\n\n\n\nThe article starts here:\n\nPrice to Earnings and Price to Sales! Price to earnings are high because some companies have repurchased their own shares, and other are high on optimism.\n \n![Screen Shot 2018-01-16 at 2.06.24 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUS7yGgQbaaAcGuUN6W3vJR2EK9ZphJA2Gq7kosfVkkVv/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-16%20at%202.06.24%20PM.png)\ndata taken from Jeff Gundlach “doubleline”, as we can see, we are higher than the average which could be at 15. Higher than 1929 and 2008, but not 2000.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n![Screen Shot 2018-01-16 at 2.07.00 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeypX33wdJG2WdsAfVeoLWJYdwB816bnMpnhiBCHysffz/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-16%20at%202.07.00%20PM.png)\n\nMargin Levels are very high. Investors are very leveraged, in comparison to other years.\n \nNormal margin is maybe near 300 billion dollars, but now we are @550 bililion. More investors are leveraged, that makes a downturn risky because people get margin calls and have to sell positions at a loss.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe VIX, or the Volatility index has been below 10 dollars to much time in the recent days, The vix is a measure of the sentiment of the options traders, the more bullish, the lower the Vix, the more bearish, higher vix.\n\n*The FED recently admitted that they held in the past (who knows if they do still) a short Volatility trade. \n ![Screen Shot 2018-01-16 at 2.08.19 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmeoAPeH3YWx1VXQrmYUKFAYo9rdm4nc6YmDGVveJKjuQQ/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-16%20at%202.08.19%20PM.png)\n\n\n•\tHard data is bad, while soft data is very good.\n*Hard data means factual data, from evidence, and soft data is expectations from the market conditions.\n\nThe reason why lots of stocks are high is because of the Federal Funds Rate. Which is now in the  1.25% to 1.5% range. This makes it posible for companies to get cheap money (at a low interest rate) and invest in the markets.\n\n Or in the case of some companies, to buyback their shares and make the P/E ratio look a lot better although net income may be the same as last year. \n\nCentral Banks are buying US assets, such as the Central Bank of Switzerland. \nAnother place Where central bank buying is making a headline is in Japan, where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) buying a lot of the ETF’s in the country\n\n*its not a main reason, but it has a certain influence.\n*ETF’s are extchange traded funds, which are funds of something, sometimes tracking a commodity or sometimes a group of companies.\n\nIn 2017 central Banks of the World purchased approximately 2 trillion of financial assets. In order to keep interest rates low, because if they go up. The stock market crashes. (im not talking of .25%, but if they go to 3%) or more.\n\nIn 2017 the interest on the debt was nearly 250 billion. (250,000,000,000)\nAt 3% FED funds Rate, the cost of paying just interest on the debt is 640 billion.\n\nAnd 640 billion is a big number, considering the US had a comercial déficit of 500 billion in 2017. Many will argue it is bad for America, but in reality trade déficits are very good in my opinión, because the US is paying for international goods, with paper that is not backed by anything. (the dollar). And it also creates a larger market usage for the dollar, because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world.\n\nWhat I have read and feel bad about some people, is that they have taken loans using their home as  collateral, this i see very bad because in the downturn the home prices will go down, but the ammount they owe will be the same. What that will cause is that when the markets go down, the Banks will own a lot of real estate. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n![Screen Shot 2018-01-14 at 12.16.33 AM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmfMRatvRsDVUkULP1EMAsei8XUGJkaVAemecQQEqWS3zH/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-14%20at%2012.16.33%20AM.png)\n\nSavings rate is low, as in 2000 and 2007, and people are too confident.\n \n\nFed has said they will start unwinding(start selling), their balance sheet, it will have to be too slow because it has a very large impact on the market. Right now they own 4.5 trillion dollars in Mortgage backed securities (houses from the 2008 crisis).\nSupposedly they would start selling their assets in October 2017 but it didn’t start as planned, I think till the date they have only sold 10 billion usd approximately. \n\nStudent loan as one of the biggest assets of the US government, im not sure if it still is.\n I believe that in many funds hold in some percentage student loans, which account for 1 trillion dollars in debt. This means that some pension funds are the ones that get paid, when students pay their debt off.\n\nThe dollar will loose purchasing power, like in 2017, in which the DXY (the dollar index) lost 10%. Which will mean more inflation for inside America, nothing big, but more inflation for the day to day purchases.\n\nI believe the market can keep going up and most probably it will, because if the market goes down, it wont be like 2008 in which companies recovered quickly, this crash will make things a lot harder. Because there is doo much debt to be serviced, actually the world debt is 333% larger than the World GDP.\n\nI feel that there is too much risk to the downside, in comparison to the upside gains that can exist. Since trump got elected 7 trillion has gone into Us stockmarket. And the Dow is nearly up 30% since November 9th 2016.\n\n\nOne of the important facts \nIs the idea of a “bond bubble” in which Bill Gross is a fan of. The idea is that people will start selling bonds and yields will go up. \nThe reason why the bond selling may start is because they are paying low yields in comparison to other assets, and Central Banks have made the bonds go up a lot in price,making the yield lower in order to promote more activity in the American Economy.\n\nWhat I write here, can be confirmed, looking at the money velocity chart from the FRED,\n![Screen Shot 2018-01-16 at 2.10.07 PM.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmT14VwdQaMzqScaM7C8wy6pNTnEoKPrdPH6zVLKjVVRUc/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-16%20at%202.10.07%20PM.png)\n\n  \nWhat this shows is that money is circulating in America the slowest in maybe like 60 years… The reason why it hasn’t shown a lot in the economy is because of the great amount of money that is pumped by the central banks to keep the markets high, for now.\n\nThese are all the reasons why I believe Gold, and especially Silver are a good investment in the coming months, because they don’t represent a liability to anyone, and at one point people will seek safety and that will push prices a little higher.\n\nActually the people who give value to Gold are China ,Russia and India, they have been buying lots of Gold. And it is my opinion, that at some point in the future, gold will have a larger price in dollars because of its view as a safe haven.\nAlthough I believe silver is a better bet in the precious metals, because the gold to silver ratio indicated thtat for every 80 ounces of silver you get one gold coin, while extraction on earth is nearly 10 to 1. And silver demand in the world is slowly growing, while silver supply is slowly going down. \nAlso an important factor is that nearly 360 billion ounces of silver are traded each year, while only .8 billion are mined every year. \nIt is maybe similar to what the banks do with “fractional reserve lending” in which if everyone wanted what they believe they own, they wont get it.\n\nI am also a proponent of cryptocurrencies, I actually own some since May of 2017 and have made some dollars there. The reason why I believe in Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies is because they represent mathematical work that can’t be reproduced or fraudulently made. \n\n\n\n\nBitcoin for example is a deflationary currency, which means it cant be inflated. There will only be 21 million bitcoins in human history and bitcoin mining in 2017 used more energy than the whole country of Ecuador. I say that it is deflationary because every day there needs to be more dollars in existence than yesterday, bitcoin isn’t that way, and investors seeking a safety from Fiat currencies go into Gold, Silver and Bitcoin. They represent no debt to anyone. \n*one thing to notice is that bitcoin, just as the dollar, has no value, and it can go to 0 dollars. But my personal opinion is that 1 bitcoin will be valued at 500,000 dollars in 2022 approximately.\n\nIn summary its not to be negative but there are many bad indicators in the market now, maybe in the future, after a 40% correction it may be a good idea to purchase some high quality stocks.\n\n\n*in a more long term perspective, other countries are trying to trade oil in their own currencies, and at one point they will be able to. This is a big threat to the dollar, because if that happens, the 1,700 billion dollars that are traded in oil every year will be traded in another currency. \nMaybe bitcoin, maybe the yuan or maybe gold. \nThis is big, because it will make US imports more expensive, but labor market inside the us will start production as it was in the 50’s due to a cheaper labor.\n\n\nI made this because I was speaking to my dad last night and he told me what would I think about making a summary of the stuff that I have been reading off the internet, and thought it was a pretty good challenge. I hope you find it interesting. Everything was written by me, but the graphs and images I took from other webpages where I read the information from ☺\n\n \nThis is me at the Mexican Stock Market Exchange “BMV” (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)\nhttps://steemitimages.com/DQmNrtNG8o746BQFEnG6nNtPimaWNbxuxhjrzaGeYuP3K31/IMG_20171119_172952.jpg)",
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      "author": "marketreport",
      "permlink": "re-dreder-re-marketreport-situation-critical-is-the-fed-about-to-allow-the-bond-market-to-go-supernova-by-gregory-mannarino-20180109t230343516z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "He uses my name so people pay attention to him. Funny right?",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Greg, how can i see you open positions on traders choice?????",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "There is a person named SilverGoldman talking bad about you",
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      "author": "dreder",
      "permlink": "re-haejin-salt-higher-degree-of-trend-elliott-waves-show-0-005734-btc-target-845-profit-potential-20180109t222620329z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "have you ever done a right bet?",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"salt\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}"
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{
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      "title": "",
      "body": "HAHAHAHA i see silver still @ 17, so nothing special",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Have you ever thought that we were maybe all scammed at the moment of buying the metalz? pumper on the web get paid 2 promote...",
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      "author": "wibble",
      "permlink": "re-dreder-re-dollarvigilante-fc2rcv96-20180107t053830315z",
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      "body": "Jeepers creepers, with etiquette and spelling like that, I wish you luck!",
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      "author": "dreder",
      "permlink": "re-dollarvigilante-fc2rcv96-20180107t050051271z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "I ALSO WANNA MAKE SOME COIN ON THEESE KOMMENTS, SO GIMME A SMALL LIKE IN ORDER TO PURCHASE ANOTHER KOIN. XD LOLOLOL",
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      "parent_author": "crushthestreet",
      "parent_permlink": "vpmpyt0h",
      "author": "dreder",
      "permlink": "re-crushthestreet-vpmpyt0h-20180103t203547321z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Blockchain changed my live, i don't live by the river ANYMORE!!!!! :)",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"dtube\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\"}"
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      "permlink": "re-marketreport-janet-yellen-does-not-like-me-by-gregory-mannarino-20180103t203443841z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "so silver to tha moon?",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "hummmm, and what happens if it inverts and stocks keep going up? u donate me a OMG?",
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      "title": "Hola Mexicanos",
      "body": "Hola amigos mexicanos, yo soy mexicano y estoy interesado en que ustedes Sepan sobre el BITCOIN!",
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      "permlink": "re-marketreport-look-at-the-yield-curve-incredible-by-gregory-mannarino-20171215t003453148z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "when kollapse?",
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      "body": "hello, did you get to that conclusion because of the star trails in the southern hemisphere?",
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      "body": "why can't the economy just restart..",
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      "body": "the only problem is that she sells metals so doesn't want to hear aboyt kryptoeconomy",
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      "body": "GWEAAAT",
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      "body": "im not sure if a dollar crash looms... like in 3 months... more like a year or so...",
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      "body": "Yes.",
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      "body": "bauunds",
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      "body": "Greg, what is the fed funds rate now? 1.25 to 1.5?",
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      "body": "so is it game over as bo polny says?",
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      "body": "a mi me encanta, no me gusta",
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